Sunday, February 2, 2020

This One Goes to Eleven (Handicapping the Democratic Field, Take 11 PLUS Iowa Predictions!

A few days ago, former Representative John Delaney dropped out of the race. He spent over $20 million of his own money and didn't even stick around long enough for the voting to start.  This is not a healthy system.

The big news this week was the Senate's capitulation to Donald Trump. The Republican majority refused to even have a proper trial with witnesses and evidence. They're just going to bit the bullet and stick with their man and hope that he lets them hold on to power for a few more years while the Baby Boomers take their resentment and entitlement to the grave.

In about 30 hours, the people of Iowa will caucus for the remaining 11 candidates.  I will go through each of those option, in the order which I rank their chances of being president. For each, I will say what is a Good Result, Adequate and Disappointing result tomorrow.

My theory remains that we will not know who is likely to be the nominee until Super Tuesday.  None of the early states is representative of the Democratic party nationally. Iowa and New Hampshire have almost no minority voters. Nevada has a lot of Latin voters, but not many black voters. Then South Carolina balances things out by having a disproportionately high number of black voters.  Only on Super Tuesday will we have a big enough sample to know where the country is going. 

And this years is the first time that a truly major candidate is skipping the early states all together. If Biden under performs in those early states, a lot of moderate will give Michael Bloomberg a long hard look. 

Here are my early state predictions:

Iowa:  1. Sanders (28%). 
            2. Biden (23%) 
            3. Buttigieg (17%)  
            4. Warren (14%) 
            5. Klobuchar (12%)


NH*    1. Biden  2. Sanders   3. Warren  4. Klobuchar 
NV       1. Sanders  2. Biden  3. Warren 
SC        1. Biden  2. Sanders 

* To clarify-I think Bernie/Biden will finish in the top 2 in IA and NH. The order will switch be NH has decided that their purpose in life is to veto the winner of the Iowa caucuses.

 The Top Tier (The Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden 
GOOD IOWA RESULT: Win
ADEQUATE IOWA RESULT: 2nd
BAD IOWA RESULT: 4th

2. Bernie Sanders 
Good: Win
Adequate: 2nd
Bad:  4th

3. Elzabeth Warren
Good: 2nd
Adequate: 3rd
Bad: 4th. 

4. Mike Bloomberg 
N/A

B.  Tier Two (The Alternatives).
5. Pete Buttigieg 
Good: Win.  (If he can't win here, he probably can't win anywhere.)
Adequate: 2nd
Bad:  4th.  He can probably justify a close 3rd place finish but if he doesn't make the medal table in Iowa, he might as well drop out. His national numbers have tanked and Indian doesn't vote until May. 

6.  Amy Klobuchar  
Good:  3rd
Adequate: 4th.  (Especially if she finishes ahead of Warren.)
Bad: 6th  She's beein in 5th place in Iowa for awhile now but she has had a couple good polls that have her in 3rd or 4th. Finishing ahead of Pete and or Warren will be a win. As an avowed Klobuchar supporter, I thin here best result looks something like Bernie 30, Biden 24, Klobuchar 15, Buttigieg 13, Warren 11.  Yang 4 Gabbard 3. 

C. Long Shots:
7.  Michael Bennet  
8. Deval Patrick.  (Up from 9)
Both of these guys have been focusing on NH.

D. Novelty Candidates.
9. Andrew Yang (Up from 10)
Good Result: 5th
Adequate Result; 6th
Bad Result:  If he gets under 5 percent, then we officially know he's just an internet meme. Anything over 5 percent or finishging ahead of Steyer and Klobuchar would suggest that he has more of a game ground than I suspected.

10. Tom Steyer (Up from 11) 
Good Result:  5th
Adequate Result: 6th
Bad Result: 7th
He has spent a ton of money in all of the early states. He needs to show a pulse in IA, but even a terrible result won't cause him to drop out.   He is angry at money, apparently.

11. Tulsi Gabbard (Up from 12)
It doesn't really matter. She's going to keep running. I don't know what her objective is, but I'm pretty sure it has nothing to do with being the Democratic nominee for president in 2020.


III. The Power Rankings, Take Ten.
These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.
1.  Amy Klobuchar
2.   Michael Bennet   
3.   Joe Biden 

4.   Pete Buttigieg 
5.   Elizabeth Warren 
6.   Bernie Sanders (Up from 7)
7.   Deval Patrick (Up from 8)

8.  Tom Steyer
9.  Michael Bloomberg (Up from 10) 
10 Andrew Yang  (Up from 11)
11.   Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 12)

Sunday, January 26, 2020

We Didn't Deserve Marriane Williamson, or Democratic Field Take 10

It's been over a month since I updated my feelings on the Democratic candidates. We haven't really had a lot of news, but there have been three drop outs, so I thought I would do a quick update.

Bernie has had a good week of polling and that has translated into movement in the prediction markets. But I still consider Biden the favorite.

I have begun to realize that the early schedule makes this race hard to handicap.  February has the first 4-Iowa, New Hampshire each spaced out by about a week. But then there is only three days between South Carolina and Super Tuesday. On March 3rd, there are 15 contests with 1,344 delegates.  That schedule could favor Mike Bloomberg who is sitting out the first four states but has already been saturating the Super Tuesday states with advertisements. 

That schedule might also cause some candidates to hang around even if they do poorly in the early states. Colorado and  Minnesota both have primaries on that day. Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet might be tempted to hang around and see if they can vacuum up some delegates by hanging on for a few more days.

Here is my very early predictions for the February contests:

Iowa 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Buttigieg
New Hampshire:  1. Biden 2. Sanders. 3. Warren
Nevada:  1. Sanders 2. Biden. 3. Warren
South Carolina 1. Biden 2. Sanders 3. Warren

If anything close to this holds, then Biden, Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg can all claim viability going into Super Tuesday.

There are not a lot of big changes in the rankings, but the three drop outs did cause some ripples.

A. The Top Tier (The Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden 
2. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
3. Elzabeth Warren (Down from 2)
4. Mike Bloomberg (Up from 6)

B.  Tier Two (The Alternatives).
5. Pete Butigieg (Down from 4)
6.  Amy Klobuchar  (Down from 5)

C. Long Shots
7.  Michael Bennet  (Up from 8)
8. John Delanay.  (Up from 10)
9. Deval Patrick.  (Up from 11)

D. Novelty Candidates.
11. Andrew Yang (Up from 12)
11. Tom Steyer (Up from 13) 
12. Tulsi Gabbard (Up from 14)


III. The Power Rankings, Take Ten.
These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.
1.  Amy Klobuchar
2.   Michael Bennet   
3.   Joe Biden (Up from 4)

4.   Pete Buttigieg (Down from 3)
5.   Elizabeth Warren 
6.  John Delaney (Down from 8)
7. Bernie Sanders (Up from 9)
8. Tom Steyer (Up from 10)
9.  Deval Patrick (Up from 11)
10.  Michael Bloomberg (Up from 12) 
11 Andrew Yang  (Up from 13)
12.   Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 15)

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

The Road to 270 (2020 General Election Prediction, Take One)

This is the year that Americans will decide whether Donald Trump gets a second term.  At this moment, he is a very slight betting underdog.   Prediction markets have it at about 51/49. That's not just within the margin of error. It is a true toss up, with 307 days to go.

I. The Fundamentals.
This election is hard to handicap because the incumbent has unconventional strengths and historic weaknesses. For example, Donald Trump is generally unpopular. His current approval rating is about 43 percent.  At an equivalent point in their presidencies, Barack Obama was at 45%. George W. Bush and Bill Clinton were in the 50s. But the economic news is more good than bad.  Growth has slowed but the job market is solid and the stock market is performing well. It is possible that Trump's tariffs cost him a lot of votes in agricultural states but if the job market stays strong into the spring, then the economy will probably be a net benefit to him.

II. The Variables.

A lot can happen in 44 weeks.

1.  Impeachment. It seems now that Impeachment will not result in removal from office. But it's also possible that more direct evidence of Trump's corrupt actions in Ukraine. That will hurt his polling, even if he gets a brief bump from his likely acquittal by the senate.

2.  Foreign policy.  Both Iran and North Korea have ramped up their agitation of Trump in recent weeks.  North Korea has been dangling the possibility of new weapons testing. Iranian back militias have escalated their activity in Iraq. Trump responded with missile attacks on targets in Iraq. This was done over the objection of the Iraq government and resulted in massive protests at the American embassy in Baghdad.

Anything from a full  on war with Iran to a withdrawal of all American troops from the region are possible. I say this because the person making these decisions is a reckless imbecile. If he thinks either of these options will help him win a second term, he will not hesitate to do either.  The best hope for the world is for Donald Trump to believe that relative peace is in his own best interest. Fingers crossed.

3. The Democratic Nomination.There are two ways to read the polls so far. One is that the experienced popular moderate, Joe Biden has maintained first place over many months because he is well, experienced popular and moderate.  The other way to look at is that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are both quite progressive candidates and their combined support is roughly equal to Biden's. If one of them emerges as the lefty challenger to Biden, then the race will be close.

III. The Forecast.

For our purposes, I will start the forecast assuming the Democratic nomination is a "Generic Democrat."  My central thesis is that Trump won in 2016 because he turned out a lot of new and inconsistent voters.  He was helped in this task by the fact that his opponent was very unpopular.

We start with the 2016 electoral map.  Trump won 306 votes, Hillary 232.  I believe that a generic Democrat should win back Pennsylvania (20 votes) and Michigan (16).  That leave us with Democrat 268, two shy of enough to win.

If the race were held today, then the next president would be the candidate who wins Wisconsin. Wisconsin may be the new Florida.  They did elect a Democratic governor in the blue wave of 2018, but just barely.

So here is my official 2020 electoral map:



So the official prediction is a punt.  To be specific: Generic Democrat 268, Trump 260, Toss-up 10.
If Donald Trump wins Wisconsin, the Democrat will need to pull an upset somewhere else. Here are a few possibilities:

1. North Carolina
2. Arizona
3. Georgia
4. Nebraska 2nd Congressional District plus Maine's 2nd congressional district.

Any of these is possible but none are likely.  The Democratic nominee will also need to defend Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia.

IV.  The Opponents.
As the nomination contests get under way, voters will be mindful of who can win the election.  Here is how I would adjust the map if I knew that the nominee would be each of these people.

a Biden 278, Trump 234, Toss-up 26.

I think Biden would hold all of the Generic Democratic states and add WI.  I would also move AZ and NC to too close to call.

b. Sanders 255, Trump 260, Toss-up 23.

I think Sanders would hold most of the Generic Democratic states, and he might win Wisconsin. But I don't really like him as a candidate in Virginia, so I move that to close-up.

c.  Warren  248, Trump 260, Toss-up 30.
I think Warren will have a hard time in Pennsylvania, so I move it to toss-up. She might also struggle in Virginia, but I favor her slightly there.

d.  Buttigieg  262, Trump 270, Toss-up 6.
I think Buttigieg will lose Wisconsin. And I don't think he can pull an upset in AZ, GA or NC.  I also move NV to toss-up.

e.  Bloomberg 219, Trump 303, Toss-up 16.
People do not understand how unpopular President Bloomberg would be in gun states. I think Trump wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Michigan would be close.

f. Klobuchar 279, Trump 248, Toss-up 11.
I think she wins Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Arizona would be a toss-up.





















Tuesday, December 17, 2019

The Democratic Horse Race, Take Nine

Pour out a little malt liquor for Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Tim Ryan, Joe Sestak, Wayne Messam and Steve Bullock. Unfortunately, we also have to say hello to Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick.

 last updated my rankings of the Democratic Field on October 22nd. The news since then has been dominated by the impending impeachment of President Trump. But a lot has happened in the primary field too. In those eight weeks six candidates have dropped out. Perhaps more incredibly, two joined the field.  So the field of 19 has dwindled slightly to fifteen.

I. POLLING DATA (Based on the Real Clear Politics Average)

In the polls, Joe Biden has maintained a steady and significant lead. Warren has slipped from 2nd place to 3rd, losing about 1/3 of her support in the RCP average. Bernie's support has been steady enough to pass Warren, despite a small dip in her nominaal support. 

Only one of the six recent dropouts has significant polling support. Kamala Harris was in 5th place two months ago with 5.3 percent. That's is nearly identical to the 5.4 percent that Michael Bloomberg now.

II. The Horse Race (Take Eight).
In my last update I moved Elizabeth Warren up to the top spot. I regret that. She was on a good run but once she tried to tack back towards the center by hedging on her commitment to Medicare for All, that bubble burst.  She seems to be caught between the progressive wing which still prefers Bernie and the larger more centrist block of the party.  (Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Booker and Klobuchar currently have about 42 percent support. Sanders and Warren about 34 percent.)


Without further ado, here are the updated rankings:

A. The Top Tier (The Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden (up from 2)
He has always been the favorite and I should have stayed with him all the way through. But age is a real vulnerability here, so I can't call him the prohibitive favorite just yet.

2. Elzabeth Warren (Down from 1)
She is popular but her shtick seems to have worn thin early. And there is no sign of Bernie relenting or his followers breaking with him. 

In my last post, only Bernie and Warren were listed in the top tier. But I think the next two candidates have shown enough consistency to deserve being included with them.

3. Bernie Sanders 
His base is large and committed.  He will not quit a minute sooner than he has to, especially if a moderate is in front of him.  

4. Pete Buttigieg
He needs to win Iowa. That is a real possibility. But if he does, he probably fades in NH and I don't see him doing much in SC or NV.

B.  Tier Two (The Alternatives).
5.  Amy Klobuchar (Up from 7)

Hear me out. She has seen an uptick in her polling and outlasted a couple early contenders (Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris).  She also seems generally acceptable to most wings of the party.  If she can pull off a strong finish in Iowa, she will have to be considered a top tier contender.  And if things go haywire, she might be the compromise candidate that everyone can live with. 

6.  Mike Bloomberg (Unranked)
There are three things to remember about Mike Bloomberg-he's rich, he's ambitious and he's obsessed with data.  He would not be spending the obscene amounts of money that he is spending if he didn't think he could get a practical return on the spending. That return could come in the form of the nomination but I think it is more likely that he wants to steer the conversation away from genuinely left-wing ideas like Medicare for all and towards more pragmatic concerns like reducing carbon emissions and restoring American's alliances. 

I wish him well....to a point.  If I could wave a magic want and make him the president, the country would be in good hands. But he has singular political downsides ind the general election.  (He is Jewish. He is unmarried. He is synonmous with government overreach in both the nanny state and the police state realms.)  But I also believe that he will spend his money wisely and absorb delegates beyond what his vote percentage would rate.  If he has a few hundred delegates, then he might be able to push the nomination to someone like Klobuchar or Biden as needed.

Tier Three (Long Shots)
7.  Cory Booker (Down from 6)
 Not making the debate stage hurts. He also failed to make the Vermont ballot, which suggests that he is having to conserve his resources.  (Vermont doesn't have many delegates and Bernie will probably win most of them no matter what.)

8. Michael Bennet  (Up from 10)
He may have hurt his chances for becoming president by running.  He is exactly the kind of moderate, mains stream purple-state candidate that someone like Bloomberg might have pushed for. But getting crushed in New Hampshire will make him look unpopular.

9.  Julian Castro.  His polling is dreadful.  But he seems t0o stubborn to drop out. A for effort, I guess.

10. John Delanay.  (Up from 12)

Yep. He's still running. He also failed to make the VT ballot, which is inexcusable given the fact that he has a lot of money to spend and running for president has been his full-time job for over 2 years. 

11. Deval Patrick.  (Unranked)
I figure he thought that if he didn't at least try to run, he would always wonder "what if?"  Well it looks like he spared himself that one.

Tier Four Novelty Candidates.

12. Andrew Yang (13)
13. Tom Steyer (15))  Now the 2nd richest billionaire in the race.
14. Tulsi Gabbard
15. Marianne Williamson (17)

III. The Power Rankings, Take Nine.
These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.
1.  Amy Klobuchar
2.   Michael Bennet (Up from 4)  
3.  Pete Buttigieg 
4. Joe Biden (Up from 9)
5.  Elizabeth Warren (Down from 4)
6.  Julian Castro (Up from 8)
7. Cory Booker (Up from 10)
8. John Delaney (Down from 11)
9. Bernie Sanders (Up from 14)
10. Tom Steyer (Up from 17
11.  Deval Patrick (Unranked)
12.  Michael Bloomberg (Unranked) 
13 Andrew Yang  (Up from 16)
14.   Marianne Williamson (Up from 18)
15.   Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 19)




Wednesday, November 20, 2019

5th Democratic Debate Grades

This debate felt very tired.  The stage is too big and the arguments they have are not new.  The whol event was of course overshadowed by the impeachment hearings. But, this is what we do here so let's get to it.



WINNERS

1. Pete Buttigieg  Tactical:  A-  Strategic A
Solid and poised, as always.

2. Cory Booker   Tactical:  A-   Strategic:  A-
Booker is good in these forums. He is smart on substantive issues and he manages to be funny without coming off like a dick.  These talents have not translated into any kind of traction in the polls as yet.

3. Amy Klobuchar   Tactical: A-  Strategic: A-
She had some good lines and got buzz on social media.  I was perhaps a little underwhelmed, only because I follow her closely and have heard some of those line rehearsed already.  She also seemed to shake, slightly.  I think it was something about her bangs hanging funny, but it was noticeable and a little distracting.

BREAK EVENS

4. Bernie Sanders  Tactical:  B+ Strategic:  B+
He played the hit and he seemed to look healthy again, which is good. He also looked younger than Biden, which is something. 

5.  Joe Biden    Tactical: B-  Strategic:  B
Joe had a few embarrassing moments but I don't think they will hurt him.  It's just hard to get fired up by him because you keep waiting for him to say something stupid.  That is a problem.

6. Kamala Harris  Tactical: B-  Strategic: B-
She seemed a little tired. But then again, so did I.

7. Elizabeth Warren   Tactical:  C+  Strategic:  B-
More of the same. I think she may have hit a ceiling of support.

LOSERS

8. Andrew Yang  Tactical: C  Strategic: C
Who gives a shit?

9. Tom Steyer:  Tactical:   C-  Strategic:  C-
Remember the episode of Seinfeld where Kramer goes to baseball fantasy camp? The Steyer campaign feels like that. He's old and he's rich and he's going through a divorce so he's spending a bunch of money to pretend he's running for president. His presence on the stage tonight was as if the Kramer was allowed to play a few actual major league games as a September call up.

10. Tulsi Gabbard  Tactical:  Incomplete  Strategic: Incomplete
There is something really, really wrong with her. And the way she wears that white suit every fucking day creeps me out.



Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The World and the Election Turn it Up a Notch (Eighth Look at the 2020 Democratic Field)

I last updated my rankings of the Democratic field on September 1st. A lot has happened since then, both in the race and in the world at large. Before I get to the rankings I want to take a moment to comment on what I think will determine the outcome of the election.

The election is in 54 weeks. I estimate that the Democratic party is a slight favorite to win. If I were to put it in probabilities, I would say the Democrats have about a 55% chance of winning and the Republicans about 45%.  But we're not sure who will be the nominee of well, either party.  I think a moderate Democrat (Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg) would have about a 60% chance and a more liberal candidate (Warren, Sanders, O'Rourke) would be in a very close election that would be decided by just one or two states. (If I had to guess, Wisconsin.)

Note: I think Harris is somewhere in between these two blocs idealogically and would be a very modest favorite to win.

I.  The Policies that Will Drive the Election Next  Year.

Before getting more specific on the horse race, I want to write briefly about the substance of the election. I now believe there are five issues that will shape the course of the race over these next 54 weeks, and I want to write about each of them in order of importance.

1. The Kurds, Syria and Iraq.  I thought that Trump's re-election campaign had one really solid policy arrow in its quiver-the claim that he defeated ISIS.  Now this isn't really true. The destruction of the ISIS caliphate was largely a result of carrying out the plans made and initiated during the Obama administration. But Trump did manage to not fuck that up. In fact he accelerated it a bit by arming a lot of Kurds in Syria to fight our common enemy.  Eleven thousand of those Kurds died in that fight.  Two weeks ago, for reasons still known only to him, he gave the government of Turkey the green light to slaughter them. The carnage and loss of life will be terrible.

The beneficiaries of this plan are Russia, the Assad regime in Syria and the Erogan government in Turkey. It is likely that ISIS will make gains too, although it's hard to say what form they will take. Today our soldiers left Syria for western Iraq. They were pelted with fruit on the way out of the country. The consequences of this betrayal will be extremely negative in the long run.

It is my hope that some principled Republicans repudiate President Trump over this betrayal. But only two Republican house members have done that so far. John Shimkus (R-IL) and Francis Rooney (R-FL).  Neither man is running for re-election next year.  For now, Trump is keeping the Republican party despite this pathetic fecklessness. That might hold. But it won't if things go really bad in Syria and Iraq.

2.  Impeachment.  Last week Mick Mulvaney took to the podium in the White House and admitted that the president withheld foreign aid from Ukraine unless they conducted an investigation of the president's mostl likely electoral opponent in 2020.  In normal times, this would cause a president to resign in shame. But Donald Trump is incapable of shame and he is pretending that there was nothing wrong in this decision.  The prediction markets have been pretty firm for over a week-there is about a 70% chance that Donald Trump will be impeached by the House but only about a 20% chance that he will be removed by the senate.

Today Bill Taylor gave his deposition and apparently drew a direct line from Donald Trump to a quid pro quo that conditioned Ukraine receiving aid to defend themselves from Russia on opening an investigation into Joe Biden.  This is rank corruption. If the Republican party were not so heavily in the bag for Trump, his removal from office would be a virtual certainty.

I think the odds of Trump being impeached are more like 80%. The house is gathering a lot of evidence and at least some of the people close to the president have been cooperating. But there are only two Republican senators that have even hinted that they might consider this impeachable conduct. To remove him from office, the Democrats will need at least 20 Republican votes. (Two Democrats, might waver due to political pressure in the states they represent, Alabama and West Virginia.)

If he is impeached but not removed, he will claim complete vindication.  But it's likely that the evidence presented at trial will damage his popularity among independent voters.

If he is removed, then the evidence was so strong that nearly half of the Republican caucus could not ignore the criminality. Under those circumstances, the Republicans probably nominate Mike Pence and lose big next year. If this all comes together soon, then there could be a competitive primary between Pence and Tom Cotton and or Nikki Haley. Ted Cruz will try to run because that's his only purpose in life now. If it happens as late as next spring, the party bosses might get to pick their nominee. They will be tempted to nominate Nikki Haley, although I still believe that the Republican base is incapable of embracing the daughter of Indian immigrants as their presidential candidate.

So the Democrats probably win if Trump is removed from office. If he is merely impeached, then the effect of the process will turn on the strength of the evidence presented to the public.


3.  Health care. I have watched most of the debates while scanning Twitter. During every debate so far, liberals on Twitter have complained loudly that the moderators spend too much time talking about health care. But the reason for this disproportionate time is simple-health care is the one issue that even casual primary voters care about. It affects their bottom line, so people pay attention during those discussion.

Most of the Democratic field have similar views on Donald Trump, immigration, and the need to increase taxes on wealthy Americans. There is even a lot of agreement on most matters of foreign policy, and the field even seems to agree that foreign policy is not worth talking about much. And they all want to move towards great health insurance coverage. But the most identifiable difference is between those who want to move to universal coverage through Medicare and those who support a more incremental proposal. That is the right versus left rift in the field.

Health care is a frustrating issue for a centrist. All of the data from every advance country tells us that our system sucks. And it would be greatly improved if the federal government got more involved in controlling price and making coverage available to more people. But the problem is that a majority of voters have good-enough coverage that they are wary of making big changes to the bloated, irrational system that we have built since World War Two.

Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders both want to go big here. They want to put all Americans on Medicare, effectively ending the private insurance industry and putting Uncle Sam in charge of it all. They have plenty of data to support the idea that in the long-term this will be more efficient and cheaper than the status quo.  But like any big idea, it creates problems.  These are the main three:

1. It probably can't pass. Even if the Dems take the senate with 50 or 51 seats, there will be moderates who don't want to vote for this in the caucus.
2. The courts as presently constituted will probably strike this down. Obamacare survived by the skin of its teeth. And the courts have move rightward since that decision. Neither Sanders nor Warren will acknowledge this fact, because they are running more on ideals than a pragmatic plan for how to govern the country.
3. If it were passed and somehow upheld by the courts, it would be extremely vulnerable to being gutted. The Republican party has not flinched in its mission to gut Obamacare, even popular elements of it, like expanind Medicaid coverage, have been resisted by the Republican party all across the country.  If a Medicare For All plan became law, it would still need to be funded every year. And the GOP would be dead set on choking it to death in its crib.

If the Democratic nominee runs on Medicare for all, it will be easy for the Republican candidate to scare voters into thinking that the Democrats are coming for their health care. And that's the fucked up thing about this Trojan Horse we call a health care system-people only really care about what will happen to their family. So the best we can realistically hope for are incremental changes.

Medicare for all is a political loser. That is why I think a Warren nomination will make the election too close to call.

4. The Economy.   Donald Trump raided the treasury to pay for a huge tax cut that endeared him to rich people. A lot of squishy Republicans who know he is a jerk might hold their nose and vote for him because they believe in the power of tax cuts as much as any junkie every believed in the drug that was killing them. This sounds pathological (and it is) but it describes a lot of Romney/Gary Johnson voters-the exact demographic that the Democratic nominee needs to win over.

Trump's economic record is mixed. The job market has remained strong. The tax cuts spurred some growth, but that has cooled down to 2.0 percent last quarter. Over the next year, I don't think it will get appreciably better than that. But we probably won't have a recession.

Trump's other economic stratagem has been a foolish trade war with China. The tariffs he placed on Chinese good caused retaliatory tariffs on our exports. Farmers in particular have been hurt by this. I expect Trump to find a way to end his trade war with China, call it a victory and lift all or most of the tariffs he put in place on them. China would be wise to reciprocate, and the farmers in Iowa and Ohio who have been suffering, just might be feeling better about their lot in life a year from now. This is an easy win for Trump, but he is not beyond blowing the opportunity.

5. Trump Fatigue.  Trump might escape being removed from office. The Republican party is in hock to him, and that could keep him in office. If he's still in office, he will waltz to the nomination. He is popular with a large enough swath of the public that he can make a race close, especially if the Democratic nominee runs poorly. But the plain fact is that the country and the world know that Donald Trump is an asshole.  And that counts. A lot.

Donald Trump thinks that life is a zero sum game, which is why he is obsessed with bilateral trade deficits.  This transactional  approach to life has caused him to align the United States with dictators and autocrats.  The world is seeing the price for this realignment, most acutely in Ukraine and Syria.

Ukraine is fighting off an invasion by Russia. Syria is fighting a civil war, where Russia and Turkey have enormous interest in who wins. Most Americans don't care about Ukranians or Kurds but we do care about being the good guys. At least we used to. And we ought to be rooting for the side of democratic freedom, especially where those freedoms meet the autocracies of the poorer world.  That is what Ukraine and Syria have in common. The best Democratic candidate might just be the person who can convince the people of Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona that they should want to be the good guys again. Convincing them that Donald Trump is a bad guy should be an easy first step.

II.  The Horse Race, Take Eight.

The candidates, in order of likelihood to be the nominee. Incredibly, only one candidate has dropped out in the past 53 days. (Bye-bye Bill de Blasio.)

A. The Top Tier (The Front-Runners)

1. Elizabeth Warren  (Up from 2)

She had a great month or so of polling and briefly overtook Joe Biden in the RCP polling average. That wave seems to have crested, perhaps in part due to her performance in the 4th debate. But the betting markets now favor her heavily, so I move her to the top spot.  But she has a lot of vulnerabilities and shouldn't get too comfortable here.


2. Joe Biden (Down from 1)

He's old. And it's showing.That's why he slipped.  He might rebound, especially if foreign affairs come to the fore, but he is not putting this race away. Not by a long shot.

3. Bernie Sanders

He's old. And he had a heart attack. But he looked lively in the debate and he got some good press out of an endorsement by Representative Ocasio-Cortez.  He has a loyal following and will probably vacuum up a lot of delegates. But his health is a concern and his shtick wears thin.

B. Tier Two (The Other Contenders)

4. Pete Buttigieg (Up from 5)

He could benefit if Bernie slips. He's done well on the stump and educated voters like him a lot. I first ranked the candidates on December 30, 2018. I ranked Mayor Pete 23rd, which was dead fucking last.  This is what I wrote at the time:  Mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana. Like everyone who spends time in South Bend, he has an inflated sense of his own self-worth.

I was wrong. Pete is a serious and skilled politician. He deserves to be given serious consideration, even if his resume is imperfect.

5. Kamala Harris (Down from 4)

She's not just down one spot, she is down a tier. Her polling has been really rough for the past month. I still think she would be a good president but I'm not sure she can close this deal.


C. Tier Three (Those Guys)

6. Cory Booker (Up from 7)

Still not my favorite, but he has a good presence and might hang around long enough to capitalize on any chaos further up the chain.

7. Amy Klobuchar (Up from 9)

She has gotten a lot of chatter as the best moderate alternative to Biden. But this has not shown up in the polls yet and she might miss the next debate. I hope her buzz translates into improved polling numbers soon, because she's going to need a strong performance in Iowa to stay in the race.

8. Beto O'Rourke (Down from 6) and
9. Julian Castro (Down from 8)

The Texan boys have some talent but they don't seem to be of presidential timber. They both might already be thinking about a personal exit strategy but I'm not sure what either of them will do with their time after this race.

D. Tier Four (Long Shots)

10. Michael Bennet.
11. Steven Bullock

They probably would have been good VP candidates. Bullock might still be, but dropping out before Iowa might help him stay viable for that.

12. John Delaney

He should drop out and endorse Klobuchar. But he probably still has consultants willing to take his money and he must not be ready to give it up. I think he'll drop out after Iowa.

E. Tier Five (Novelty Candidates)

13. Andrew Yang

He will get votes. He will get delegates. He will birth a really annoying fringe political movement that gets out sized attention because it is mostly white and prosperous. But he will not be the nominee.

14. Tulsi Gabbard

She managed to generate some publicity this week by hopping on a report in the New York Times that inaccurately suggested that Hillary Clinton thought she was being groomed by the Russians. I can't imagine her dropping out and she might get some crossover fuck-you votes from Republicans. But she's an asshole and needs to go away.

15. Tom Steyer (Up from 17)
16. Tim Ryan (Down from 15)
17. Marianne Williamson (Up from 20)
18. Joe Sestak  (Down from 16)
19. Wayne Messam

The funnest fact of 2020 so far: Wayne Messam raised exactly $5 during the 3rd quarter of this year. That is one-half of a roll of quarters.


III.  The Power Rankings, Take Eight.
Here is how I rank the candidates just by my personal preferences.

1.  Klobuchar
2.  Harris
3.  Buttigieg (Up from nine)
4.  Michael Bennet (Up from 6)
5.  Steve Bullock (Up from 7)
6.  Elizabeth Warren (Down from 3)
7.  Beto O'Rourke (Down from 4)
8.  Julian Castro (Down from 5)
9.  Joe Biden
10. Cory Booker (Up from 11)
11. John Delaney (Down from 10)
12. Joe Sestak (Up from 13)
13. Tim Ryan (Down from 12)
14. Bernie Sanders
15. Wayne Messam
16.  Andrew Yang
17.  Tom Steyer
18.   Marianne Williamson
19.   Tulsi Gabbard




















Tuesday, October 15, 2019

4th Democratic Debate Grades and New Rankings

There were profound events in the world this week. The President of the United States left an ally to be slaughtered by Turkish militias. He did this because his lazy, weak and corrupt.  Tonight's debate should have focused on that, but it did not.

That said, this debate was more substantive than the earlier debates. The biggest headline is that Warren took a lot of flak, as befits her status as the new front-runner. As for how she did, the news is mixed. Overall she did not do great. But there might be a silver lining in this-the folks who did best at attacking her, are pretty far back in the polls. 

As with the previous debates, I'll give a tactical and a strategic grade for each candidate.  And in  day or two I will update my rankings of the candidates.

WINNERS:

1. Amy Klobuchar   Tactical: A  Strategic: A

If you read this blog regularly-and there are at least six of you who do, then you know Klobuchar is my preferred candidate. Tonight she was the only person who mentioned Trump's betrayal of the Kurds  in the first hour of the debate. She also did a good job of pointing out the weaknesses of Warren's policies and campaign.  She needed a big night and she really should get a bounce from it. I don't think it will be enough to get her near the top but I hope it's enough to get her in the next debate.

2. Pete Buttigieg  Tactical:  A-  Strategic A

Solid on all points. An adult and a skilled debater. I am beginning to think he might be ready for this job after all. (And I never thought I would say that.)

3. Bernie Sanders  Tactical:  A- Strategic:  A-

Bernie had one important job tonight-look healthy.  He did that. And he wasn't bad on the substance, given how played out his shtick is.  No harm done to him tonight and he might rebound from a recent dip.

4. Cory Booker   Tactical:  B+   Strategic:  A-

Cory usually plays the voice of reason and he did again tonight. But he never seems to get traction after his strong performances, in part because he usually says something annoying. Tonight he brought up his veganism three times.  That is four times too many.

5  (TIE) Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke   Tactical: B+  Strategic:  B+

They were fine. But I don't see either of them rocketing up the ranks anytime soon.

7. Andrew Yang  Tactical: B  Strategic: B

He's not a serious candidate, so I don't grade him based on whether he's going to be president. But he made some good points and probably will raise some more money for his future podcast and multi-level marketing empire.

8.  Joe Biden    Tactical: B  Strategic:  C

Joe avoided any huge gaffes, which counts for something but it's impossible to watch him speak for even one minute without thinking about his age.  He gets visibly confused in ways that make me uncomfortable.  I don't know if there is a solution to that.

9. Elizabeth Warren   Tactical:  C+  Strategic:  B-

She looked evasive and even duplicitous in her half-assed explanation/defense of Medicare for All plan. 

10. Kamala Harris  Tactical: B-  Strategic:  C-

She went for some very easy applause line on reproductive choice by saying things that literally everyone on the stage agrees with. But then she really went hard at Elizabeth Warren on the silliest issue possible-banning Donald Trump from Twitter.  That diminishes her already fading candidacy.

11. Tom Steyer:  Tactical:   C  Strategic:  C

The moderators were correct to give him the bare minimum of attention and he did his best to make them not regret that decision.  Some of his answers were delivered competently. He's obviously been rehearsing for this moment. He had a neat thing of starting every answer with a compliment of someone other candidate.  But this is the saddest middle age crisis I've ever been forced to watch on television.  If he wanted to do good with his fortune, he has a ton of options.  This verkhakta campaign ain't one. 

12. Tulsi Gabbard  Tactical:  Incomplete  Strategic: Incomplete

She is loathsome. But I can't grade her fairly because I'm not sure what her objective is. Maybe she wants to be the presidential nominee of the Democratic party. Maybe she wants to build some kind of political movement based on.....God knows what. But she did nothing to dispel rumors/conspiracy thinking that she intends to run as an independent or third party candidate.

I want to state that I was and am firmly opposed to our military invasion of Iraq. But for her to act like Trump's betrayal of the Kurds was a price worth paying for bringing 1,000 soldiers home* is despicable.

*They are not coming home yet. They are going to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, because the Saudi government is renting them from a man who thinks our military is a revenue center and our soldiers are Hessians.