Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Look Familiar? The Politics of Marriage Equality

Yesterday the school of my college years became the 11th state to extend marriage rights to gay couples.  Delaware follows Rhode Island who became the 10th state just a week before.  Both Minnesota and Illinois are half-way there, having marriage equality bills that were passed by one chamber and await certain signature by the respective governors if the other chamber passes it.

So we could soon have marriage equality in as many states as there are stripes on our flag.  But the road to one for every star will probably take a while.

California will probably have marriage equality after the Supreme Court rules on Proposition 8 next month.  Nevada has also taken steps towards legalizing gay marriage, but the prospects there are (forgive me) dicier, because the issue wold have to be put to voters, and that can't happen until 2016.  (Oregon will vote on the issue next year.

So I started thinking about where we stand on this issue.  And it occurred to me that with the District of Columbia, we may soon have 16 jurisdictions that allow gay couples to marry.  All of them voted for President Obama's re-election.  So did all the other states that allow gay civil unions but haven't been mentioned yet. (CO, HI, NJ, WI)

So I made this map to show the breakdown of the states by political leanings.  We now have 21 states (including DC) that have completed or taken significant steps toward legalizing gay marriage.  They are all blue.  There are 7 blue states that have not.  It seems to me that the 6 blue states are going to be the next places for equality proponents to advance the cause.  (New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia and Florida, in rough likelihood of them coming around on the issue).

All 24 Romney states limit marriage to heterosexual couples.  Will any of them budge before these last few blue hold outs?  My guess is now.  And in about 4 years, we might have a map that exactly matches the electoral college division.
Deep Blue-Marriage Equality States
Pale Blue-States with Civil Unions or Where Marriage Equality Legislation Has Passed One Chamber
Yellow-Obama states that have not moved toward equality
Red-Romney States