Four years ago, majorities of Republicans, Democrats and Independents all expressed a belief that humans evolved. Today, a large plurality of Republicans (48%) claim that humans have always existed in their present form. Only 39% of Republicans believe that humans evolved from other forms of life. Did Fox News succeed in making their viewers dumber? Tempting as that is to say, I suspect that not many people stopped believing in evolution in the last four years. But I think that a lot of people who are smart enough to know that evolution happened, no longer identify as Republicans. But let's focus on the positive. Sixty percent of Americans overall now believe in evolution. Just a third, (33%) believe that humans have always existed in their present form. We have a long way to go, but what has Darwin taught us if not to believe in the power of very slow, extremely gradual change over long periods of time? http://www.pewforum.org/2013/12/30/publics-views-on-human-evolution/
Note: Blue states have marriage equality, green states have civil unions or domestic partnerships
Yesterday, the New Mexico Supreme Court unanimously ruled that its ban on gay marriages was unconstitutional. The Land of Enchantment thus became the 17th state with full marriage equality. Barely 24 hours later, a federal district judge ruled that Utah's ban on same-sex marriages was unconstitutional.
As of this writing, marriage equality is the law of the land in the Beehive State. Utah's attorney general has said the state will appeal and the district court's ruling could be stayed pending that appeal as early as Monday. But the first gay couples were able to marry on Friday afternoon. The mayor of Salt Lake City even conducted a few wedding ceremonies, including one between a Utah state senator and his new husband.
Gay marriage in the home of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was once unthinkable. And it might not still be the law in 72 hours. But for now, the Honorable Robert J. Shelby, an Obama appointee, has wreaked a little welcome havoc on my marriage equality chart:
Until this afternoon, the single best predictor of the legal status of gay relationships was the result of the last Presidential election. The whole country could be broken down into 3 tiers:
Full marriage equality in all 14 jurisdictions where the President got at least 55% of the vote.
A combination of equality or other recognition in eight of his next best 10 states.
A complete lockout in the remaining 27 states.
My thesis for all of these posts has been that the march towards marriage equality has mirrored the democratic process. That's not strictly true anymore. Last year, Barack Obama gained just 25 percent of the vote against the first ever Mormon presidential nominee. (In 2008, Utah was his second worst state, with 34% of the vote against Episcopalian John McCain, slightly worse than the 32% he got in Wyoming.) Utah is now a quintessential outlier.
This aberration might go away on Monday. And the appeal might ultimately succeed. But this decision is consistent with a related long term political trend. Judge Shelby has been on the bench for less than a year. He was born in 1970. That's quite young for a federal judge. He'll have this job for as long as he wants it. And more than likely, at some point, five Supreme Court justices will make marriage equality the law of all 50 states. It is a matter of when. And by the time there's a Gen-X majority on that bench, this issue will be ancient history.
Update: Huffington Post has the following nuggets or Judge Shelby: "He was appointed by President Barack Obama after GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch recommended him in November 2011.
Shelby served in the Utah Army National Guard from 1988 to 1996 and was a combat engineer in Operation Desert Storm."
Assessing the Democrats will require a different metric than I used for the Republicans. The Republican party is overwhelmingly white and majority male. Fully half of them are white evangelical Christians. So when I assessed the prospects of their possible candidates, I evaluated them in terms of their appeal to certain ideological blocks within the party.
The Democrats have fewer obvious ideological splits that Republicans, and a lot more demographic diversity. Nearly 60% of voters in the 2008 Democratic primary were female. And 31% were black or Hispanic. Candidates will also need to have access to money and to passionate volunteers. Such resources can be found in labor unions and among the young, passionate voters who tend to be skeptical of government and anti-war. So when evaluating the Democratic field, I will assign grades based on the ability of each candidate to appeal to women, minorities, labor unions and peaceniks.
For the Republicans I divided the field into three tiers: Contender, Pretenders and Niche Candidates. I will use slightly different labels for the Democrats. I. The 600 Pound Gorilla.
1. Hillary Clinton (69). It is rare for a non-incumbent to be such a heavy favorite to win their party's nomination. The closest example in recent memory is Vice-President Al Gore, who eventually defeated a reasonably strong candidacy by Bill Bradley by winning every single primary and caucus in 2000.
Secretary Clinton is the obvious choice. She has astronomical name recognition, a solid resume and the goodwill of the party faithful. She also stands ready to make history as the first woman presidential nominee. There's just one problem. She's a lousy candidate.
I say that based mostly on her 2008 campaign. She was the heavy favorite but she hired a bunch of warmed over hacks, most notably Mark Penn, who were influential in her husband's campaign. Senator Obama's campaign outworked her nearly everywhere and picked off delegates that she never should have lost. The sheer incompetence of her campaign cost allowed the nomination to slip through her fingers.
A track record like that matters, and I can not consider her the inevitable nominee. But the good news for her is that Barack Obama is not walking through that door this time. As we'll see below, she is the most likely nominee. But she can lose again, and her first job is to not forget that fact.
Report Card: Women: A Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B Peaceniks: C-
Hillary's biggest mistake in 2008 was under estimating Barack Obama's appeal to minority voters. She relied on very early polling data that had her way ahead of him with black voters who thought highly of her. Her primary campaign did real damage to the Clinton name among black Democrats. But serving as his secretary of state probably healed those wounds sufficiently.
Chance of Running: 99% Chance of being the nominee: 70%
Veep Prospects: None. She doesn't want to spend her 70s waiting for some dude to die. Except maybe her husband. Zing! Will She Get My Vote? Probably not. I think she is qualified and will probably make a decent President. If she's the nominee, I'm sure I will support her strongly. But I also expect a candidate to emerge that better matches my beliefs on certain key issues, most notably drug policy, defense spending and our relationship with Israel.
II. The Obvious Alternative.
2. Joe Biden (74). Few men were born for their job more than Joe Biden was born to be Vice-President. One reason that he was such a brilliant choice in 2008 is that Hillary Clinton could reasonably believe that he was not a threat to run in 2016 because of his age. He will be older in 2016 than Bob Dole was in 1996 and John McCain was in 2008. He will even be older than Ronald Reagan was when he ran for RE-election in 1984.
He also ran twice for President with spectacularly poor results. He has no obvious base in the party, other than people who really love Barack Obama but who don't like Hillary Clinton. That's a small base. But his name recognition and large rolodex of contacts will probably
He most likely will run. There are few things in life he loves more than the sound of his own voice. Glad handing might be one of them. And he has tons of name recognition and supreme self-confidence. He should run and he should have a good time and he will lose, spectacularly.
There is one somewhat morbid factor to consider here. If Barack Obama dies in the next two years, than Joe Biden will run as an incumbent. It is a remote prospect, given the President's apparent health and relative youth. But it would improve his chance of being the 2016 nominee.
Chance of Running: 98% Chance of being the nominee: 6%
Veep Prospects: None. No one takes this job twice. Will He Get My Vote? Probably not. I would love to vote for a Blue Hen but I don't think he's a strong candidate and I don't think he's especially strong on the issues that I care about.
III. The Plausibles.
3. Brian Schwietzer (61). He's an interesting guy and a successful two-term governor of a western state. But it's a tiny state with just three electoral votes. The Democrats last carried Montana in 1992, thanks largely to Ross Perot getting over a quarter of the votes there. (Clinton won with less than 38% of the vote.) Report Card: Women: B+ Minorities: B Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: B+
I think he faces an uphill battle but his opening is from the Libertarian left. He's an educated man who knows a lot about energy policy and who lived in the Middle East long enough to speak Arabic fluently. He's also from a state with a health Libertarian streak and knows how to talk to people who are skeptical of government. He made some news this morning by declaring an intention to visit every county in Iowa. His challenge will be to combine the emotional appeal of the 2004 Dean campaign with the political efficiency of Obama's 2008 campaign. He's a long shot but might be the most plausible one.
Chance of Running: 98% Chance of being the nominee: 5%
Veep Prospects: Reasonable. He has executive experience and is a solid campaigner. Will He Get My Vote? Quite possibly. He has my attention.
4. Kristen Gillebrand (50). She's good on TV and she represents a huge state. Despite a fairly conservative voting record and image during her time in the house, she has made a name for herself in the Senate by championing issues that resonate with both the liberal base and with the party establishment. That's an impressive feat for a young senator. And she put up huge numbers in her second senate race. She's a player, but she's probably crowded out by Hillary.
If Hillary does not run, she might well be the front-runner. But Hillary is extremely likely to run. She is young, however and I expect her to run some day.
Chance of Running: 40% Chance of being the nominee: 5%
Veep Prospects: None, if Hillary is the nominee but excellent if it's someone other than Hillary. Will she Get My Vote? Perhaps.
5. Mark Warner (62). He has an impeccable resume. A very successful CEO, extremely popular Governor of a swing state, and now a Senator. He has checked every box on the sheet. And his electoral success in Virginia speaks for itself. But I don't see a rationale to distinguish him from Hillary. I'm not sure what story he tells that will resonate with the base. Report Card: Women: B+ Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B Peaceniks: B-
If Hillary does not run, she might well be the front-runner. But Hillary is extremely likely to run. She is young, however and I expect her to run some day.
Chance of Running: 25% Chance of being the nominee: 4%
Veep Prospects: Outstanding. His popularity in Virginia means that he will be on any nominee's short list. If there can be said to be a front-runner for the #2 slot, then it is he. Will he Get My Vote? If he runs, it means he has come up with a message to run against Hillary on. And that will get my attention.
6. Martin O'Malley (53). Governor O'Malley could carve out a place to Hillary's left on the issues while still projecting the kind of main stream posture that passes for gravitas in the current political climate. And he has the ultimate "in" with liberal hipsters, he is the inspiration for a character on The Wire. (Mayor Carcetti). He's also term limited, so he'll be out of office come January, 2015. Just about the perfect time to launch a Presidential bid.
In short, a very plausible alternative to Hillary.
Chance of Running: 80% Chance of being the nominee: 4%
Veep Prospects: Decent, particularly if he does well in the primaries. Will he Get My Vote? Perhaps. In the history of the republic, only one President has ever been mayor of a major city. (Grover Cleveland, Buffalo). One of my goals in life is to see another. O'Malley qualifies. (See above comment about The Wire.)
7. Andrew Cuomo (59). The rationale for his candidacy would be, more or less, I'm the governor of a really big state. That might work some years, but it's not something the base can rally around. His only liberal bona fides come from being Mario Cuomo's son and from being the first governor to get marriage equality through his legislature. But he lacks the oratory skill and political shrewdness of his old man. And his natural constituencies (bankers, limousine liberals) are perfectly fine with Hillary being the nominee.
I'm not sure how he wins this thing but he might be tempted to run and hope for Mrs. Clinton to stumble. If Clinton does win, he won't be the running mate (see the 12th amendment) and he would likely be 67 before there is another open nomination race. .
Chance of Running: 70% Chance of being the nominee: 2%
Veep Prospects: Not very good. The nominee is likely to be a New Yorker, and that would put him out of the running. And I can't think of a state or constituency that he shores up for the Democrats if the top of the ticket is someone else. Will He Get My Vote? That is unlikely.
IV. The Long Shots.
8. Elizabeth Warren(67).In the interest of full disclosure, and not passing up on a humble brag, let me say that I know the Senator, a little. She was briefly my boss, although I had virtually no direct interaction with her. But I admire her very much, and some of that is based on the opinions of people who do happen to know her well. I think she's brilliant. And I will absolutely vote for her if she does. But I do not think she will run. I think the Senate is exactly where she is meant to be, and I expect big, big things out of her on behalf of the middle class. Chance of Running: 5% Chance of being the nominee: 1%
She is in the long shot category mostly because I do not think she will run. If she does run, she has real potential. Veep Prospects: None. She's from a deep blue state and was an uneven candidate during her only previous campaign for office. I also think she might be the rare politician that would turn the 2nd slot down. She went to the Senate to get stuff done. Will she Get My Vote? Yes.
9. Howard Dean (68). He is still very popular with the base. 2004 was a long time ago, but he can rebuild his network of supporters pretty fast. And like Hillary, he also paid his dues by working hard for the party after a losing presidential bid. Report Card: Women: B+ Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: A
I'm sure he's thinking about a run. But I don't think he wants to get beat again. And I was never convinced that his wife was fully on board with the previous run. Its hard to make this run without the support of a spouse.
Chance of Running: 35% Chance of being the nominee: 1%
Veep Prospects: Very weak. His negatives are high and the Democrats have tended to pick a candidate closer to the center than the Presidential nominee. Will he Get My Vote? Unlikely. I admire his success as the DNC chair, but I've never been sold on the Doctor as a future president.
10. Russ Feingold (63). Impeccable bona fides with the base. But he has maintained a relatively low profile since leaving the senate. Report Card: Women: B Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: A
His biggest practical problem may be that he is twice-divorced. Spouses have become important campaign assets, and he doesn't have one. That hurts. He also hasn't shown any real interest in running. But he could probably compete in the Iowa caucuses, and whoever wins there has a shot.
Chance of Running: 15% Chance of being the nominee: 1%
Veep Prospects: Very weak. Thinks about that big moment at the convention where Hillary accepts the nomination, then Bill joins her on stage, and then Russ....unaccompanied. Its a bad visual. Will he Get My Vote? I think he is very principled, and we agree on most issues. If the primary were held tomorrow, and I'm right about Warren not running, then I would vote for Feingold.
11. Alan Grayson (58). He was elected to the house in 2008, then lost in the 2010 midterms, before winning the seat back in 2012. If he loses in the next midterms, I suspect he will at least ponder a run in the primaries. He has the potential to become our equivalent of Ron Paul, by raising a lot of money and inspiring some very devoted followers. But I don't think he will be seen as a real contender for the Presidency by the press unless he makes some huge noise in the early states.
Chance of Running: 20% Chance of being the nominee: <1 p="">
Veep Prospects: Very weak. Sure he's from a swing-state, but I don't think he could win a statewide election in Florida, so he's not much help there. Will he Get My Vote? We agree on most issues and I really hope he stays in Congress. And I'll keep an open mind if he does run for President, but his resume is a little light at this point.
IV. The Field.
This list is far from complete. Several candidates will emerge between now and then. There will be someone on the far-left who runs on a campaign of reduced military spending, an end to NSA spying and creation of a single-payer healthcare. There also seems to be a gaping hole in this field for a Latino or Latina to run in this field. But I don't know who. So for now, I'll stand with 11.
That's a strange title. And this is a strange piece of Americana/Pop Culture. In 1980, Rosa Parks appeared as a contestant on the show To Tell The Truth. The premise of that show was to have three people, one sworn to tell the truth, and two imposters. So the Real Rosa appears with two other black women of a similar age and they are asked question by a panel of B-list celebrities.
The clip really speaks for itself and you should watch the whole thing. But it's just a little mind blowing to realize that 25 years after bravely defying the forces of segregation, she wasn't too recognizable for this program.
Today is the 58th anniversary of Mrs. Parks refusing to stand up on that bus. This should be a day that is remembered nationally. I think every bus and every train in the country should have one seat left open in the first row, with a little black sash placed on it. Because we can not take for granted what she did for all of us. Nipsey says it best at the end of his comments. Mrs. Parks is ten feet tall and a hero for American democracy.
