Well, I was wrong and I was wrong loud. I'm the Dick Morris of 2016.
The best analysis requires the best data, and it will be weeks before we have that. Right now it looks like not enough Clinton voters turned out to match a groundswell of support for Trump in the corridor across the Great Lakes. I expected her to lose Ohio but Trump winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are going to prove to be enough to win the presidency. When all the votes have been counted, Trump will have lost the popular vote by about one million ballots. Right now, Trump appears to have won Wisconsin with right about the same number of votes that Romney got four years ago. But Hillary Clinton is about 250,000 votes behind what Obama got then. Donald Trump seems to have also won Michigan and Pennsylvania with right about the same vote totals that Romney got. It's early, but it looks like Clinton failed to get her voters out in those three states and that's why we will have a Trump presidency.
We will have time to figure out who didn't turn up and why. But the most important thing to start thinking about are the consequences of this election. They are real and some of them are immediate. I'm sure I will think of more as the days go by,
Ten Things That a Trump Presidency Means for America and the World.
1. The Iran Deal will be torn up. Iran will be allowed to resume its nuclear program and the west will have no access to inspect those facilities. At some point Trump may use this as an excuse to make war, but not right away.
2. Antonin Scalia will be replaced by a conservative rather than by the extremely centrist Merrick Garland. I don't think Trump cares much about the Supreme Court and I'm sure he will be told that fear of a moderate court is what inspired a lot of people who did not like him to vote for him. I think he will give those people a candidate they agree with. He or she will just have to kiss a lot of ass in the screening interview.
3. ISIS has a new propaganda talking point. The Crusaders just elected a man who doesn't even want to allow Muslims in to his country. We will find out if having a president say the magic words "Radical Islamic Terrorism" causes ISIS and like minded groups to wilt. Call me skeptical for now.
4. It is now the official policy of the United States government that Climate Change is a hoax perpetrated by China to disrupt American manufacturing. The Paris Accords will be moot and we're going to see a whole bunch of environmental regulations ripped up.
5. At some point next year the Congress will repeal Obamacare. The Democrats will fight to save some of the most important protections, and they will probably succeed in saving a few things. The GOP will agree to some watered down continuation of the requirement to cover people with preexisting conditions. But the subsidies and the individual mandate will be gone. The fight will be over whether states can keep the Medicaid expansion. I think the Republicans will be afraid to take this away, but I'm sure they will dilute it.
6. At some point next year the Congress will pass massive tax cuts and the overwhelming majority of these cuts will benefit very wealthy people. Those coal miners won't have to worry about pesky safety regulations restricting their work condition but at least the Estate Tax will be abolished for them.
7. Immigration policy is about to become a lot less thoughtful. Trump has to come through on some version of building a wall and deporting lots of people. Spoiler alert: Mexico will not pay for the wall but there will be very real pain felt by young Americans who were brought here by undocumented parents. The GOP establishment will try to blunt this, but Trump does not owe them much. This is going to be ugly. And we're going to stop taking refugees from Syria. We will contribute to the horrible humanitarian crisis there rather than helping it.
8. There will be a bunch of dumb protectionist policies put in place. Trump will pass some symbolic law that punishes companies for moving jobs overseas and he'll create a new tax shelter that allows those companies to move money back to the United States without paying taxes on it. This won't affect many people in the real world, but he has to have something to point to when people ask him what he did about all the countries he claims are "stealing" from us because we run trade deficits with them.
9. The implements of the federal government will be used to settle the president's political scores. He will try to pass some slapdash attempt to make our libel laws more like those of Britain. He will grant access only to favorable media outlets and he will use the bully pulpit to get into insult contests with figures great and small.
10. The new school of political science thought will be personality based. They will say that W., Obama and Trump were all charismatic figures who defeated candidates that were less likable and more bland in the alternative. Someone or other will run for the Democratic nomination in the style of Donald Trump. Mark Cuban comes to mind. Maybe Michael Moore will run too. We will never expect candidates to disclose their tax returns or delineate complex policy proposals again.
Unless, of course, this presidency is a disaster. It's entirely possible, and I would say likely that the idea of electing a man bereft of experience and lacking a single idea more serious than "Make America Great Again" will be discredited in short order. We'll know by the midterm elections if not sooner. I suspect Trump will get the typical honeymoon and score some early successes on easy stuff next year. Americans won't really form a lasting opinion of him until he responds to a significant crisis. That will come sometime during 2017.
The American people were asked to choose between a career politician with some sketchy advisors and a propensity for secrecy and an ignorant, semi-literate rage monster with the temperament of a four year old and the knowledge base of a high school sophomore of middling intelligence. The choice our electoral system made between them disheartens me as an American citizen, but I know the hurt is so much worse for people who are Muslim, Latino, recent immigrants or have been the victim of a sexual assault. It looks for the moment that there are more people afraid of what a changing world meant to their own future than were concerned about the well-being of such marginalized groups. We overlooked so many warning signs and condoned some genuinely horrific behavior yesterday. This is not a pretty day in our history. And we have voted for worse yet things to come.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Sunday, November 6, 2016
4th General Election Forecast: Clinton 49.7, Trump 44.6, Johnson 4.1, McMullin 0.8, Stein 0.7 (Electoral College 322, Trump 216)
In about 48 hours, we will know the identity of the election winner. That winner will be Hillary Clinton. The margin will be similar to the election of 2012 but there are a handful of states that could go either way. Trump would need to win every single one of them to get to 270 votes. If you go to Predictit.com and buy shares in the states most likely to vote for Hillary, you can get 274 EV and the cheapest state would be Pennsylvania at 79 cents. Even if Trump pulls one truly significant upset in one of those states, Hillary could save the election by winning one of the other states where she is favored. Florida (69 cents) or North Carolina (61 cents) plus New Hampshire (76 cents).
But the elections could be close. If Nate Silver again correctly predicts every single contest this time, and his model does not change tomorrow, she will win 278 to 260. But consider that this includes Trump winning Nevada, because Nate's models, unlike betting markets, do not factor in the early vote. I think Hillary stands an excellent change of exceeding 300 Electoral Votes, but that's not guaranteed.
Trump's route to 270.
To build Trump's path to 270, one would expect to start him with the 206 Electoral Votes that Romney won in 2012. The day before the 2012 election I wrote a blog post called Romney has 5 Paths to 270 (and one to 269.) This was based on my reading of the polls, the futures markets and the 2008 vote. For each of those paths, I assumed that Romney would win flip North Carolina because it was his best chance of a pick up. He did flip NC back to red, but four years later it is the state most likely to flip back to blue. So let's start Trump with 191 EV. The only other Romney states he has a significant chance of losing are Arizona, Nebraska's 2nd congressional District and possibly Utah. But a close election would mean he turned out enough of his voters to hang on to the shaky red states. So he starts with 191. From that starting point he needs to add:
Three Contests where he is favored:
1. Maine's 2nd congressional district, where he is currently the slight favorite. (192)
2. Iowa, where polls have shown him ahead for awhile. (198)
3. Ohio, where his anti-free trade positions and his support for the coal industry have resonated. (216)
These are the only contested states where he is the betting favorite. I think he is likely to win all three of them, but I expect Ohio to be close.
Nothing Could Be More Floridian.
4. Not unlike Romney in the previous cycle, he almost certainly wins NC if he wins the presidency. But unlike last time, the polls and betting markets are against him, slightly. (231)
5. Florida, Florida, Florida. I once thought FL would be an easier win for Trump than NC but today's early vote numbers looked great for Democrats. I really do favor Hillary here, but it's easy to go broke betting on the good sense of Floridians. (260)
The Last 10 Are the Hardest.
For weeks I assumed Donald's best path to 270 would involve Nevada and New Hampshire getting him to exactly 270. The NV numbers do not look good for Republicans and Hillary is also a heavy favorite in New Hampshire, which seems to be trending leftward as the Boston suburbs sprawl ever northward. This is still his best path, and you go to election night with the polls you have, not the polls you want. (270)
A Big 10 Upset.
If Trump fails to run the states listed above, he will need to pull a significant upset elsewhere. His best chances are in Big 10 Country:
A. If Trump wins Pennsylania (20 EV) or Michigan (17 EV), he could win even if he lost North Carolina and New Hampshire. He also could win the election if he kept NC but lost both NV and NH.
Hillary's price on Predictit.com is 83 cents in PA and 79 in MI.
B. If Trump wins either Wisconsin or Minnesota (each with 10 EV), he could afford to love NV and NH. Hillary's price on Predictit.com is 86 cents in WI and 88 in MN.
When the first Comey letter came out 10 days ago, Predictwise.com gave Hillary a 91% of winning. That got down to 82% before starting to rebound. She is nearly back to where she was, standing at 89%. Trump has a tough road to 270. With a good result in NC and FL, the election may come to a merciful end a couple hours sooner than expected.
But the elections could be close. If Nate Silver again correctly predicts every single contest this time, and his model does not change tomorrow, she will win 278 to 260. But consider that this includes Trump winning Nevada, because Nate's models, unlike betting markets, do not factor in the early vote. I think Hillary stands an excellent change of exceeding 300 Electoral Votes, but that's not guaranteed.
Trump's route to 270.
To build Trump's path to 270, one would expect to start him with the 206 Electoral Votes that Romney won in 2012. The day before the 2012 election I wrote a blog post called Romney has 5 Paths to 270 (and one to 269.) This was based on my reading of the polls, the futures markets and the 2008 vote. For each of those paths, I assumed that Romney would win flip North Carolina because it was his best chance of a pick up. He did flip NC back to red, but four years later it is the state most likely to flip back to blue. So let's start Trump with 191 EV. The only other Romney states he has a significant chance of losing are Arizona, Nebraska's 2nd congressional District and possibly Utah. But a close election would mean he turned out enough of his voters to hang on to the shaky red states. So he starts with 191. From that starting point he needs to add:
Three Contests where he is favored:
1. Maine's 2nd congressional district, where he is currently the slight favorite. (192)
2. Iowa, where polls have shown him ahead for awhile. (198)
3. Ohio, where his anti-free trade positions and his support for the coal industry have resonated. (216)
These are the only contested states where he is the betting favorite. I think he is likely to win all three of them, but I expect Ohio to be close.
Nothing Could Be More Floridian.
4. Not unlike Romney in the previous cycle, he almost certainly wins NC if he wins the presidency. But unlike last time, the polls and betting markets are against him, slightly. (231)
5. Florida, Florida, Florida. I once thought FL would be an easier win for Trump than NC but today's early vote numbers looked great for Democrats. I really do favor Hillary here, but it's easy to go broke betting on the good sense of Floridians. (260)
The Last 10 Are the Hardest.
For weeks I assumed Donald's best path to 270 would involve Nevada and New Hampshire getting him to exactly 270. The NV numbers do not look good for Republicans and Hillary is also a heavy favorite in New Hampshire, which seems to be trending leftward as the Boston suburbs sprawl ever northward. This is still his best path, and you go to election night with the polls you have, not the polls you want. (270)
A Big 10 Upset.
If Trump fails to run the states listed above, he will need to pull a significant upset elsewhere. His best chances are in Big 10 Country:
A. If Trump wins Pennsylania (20 EV) or Michigan (17 EV), he could win even if he lost North Carolina and New Hampshire. He also could win the election if he kept NC but lost both NV and NH.
Hillary's price on Predictit.com is 83 cents in PA and 79 in MI.
B. If Trump wins either Wisconsin or Minnesota (each with 10 EV), he could afford to love NV and NH. Hillary's price on Predictit.com is 86 cents in WI and 88 in MN.
When the first Comey letter came out 10 days ago, Predictwise.com gave Hillary a 91% of winning. That got down to 82% before starting to rebound. She is nearly back to where she was, standing at 89%. Trump has a tough road to 270. With a good result in NC and FL, the election may come to a merciful end a couple hours sooner than expected.
| Forecast | Popular | Electoral | Changes |
| First (July 10th) | Clinton 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2. | Clinton 348-190 | (From 2012) Clinton wins NC and NE-2 |
| Second (Sep 26th) | Clinton 49, Trump 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2 | Clinton 340-198 | Trump wins IA, NE-2 & ME-2 |
| Third (October 16th) | Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2, McMullin 1 | Clinton 359-179 | Clinton wins IA, NE-2, ME-2 & Arizona |
| Fourth (November 7th) | Clinton 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1, McMullin 1 | Clinton 322-216 | Trump wins AZ, IA, OH, NE-2, ME-2 |
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