Will Romney Gamble Tonight?

And I don't mean a repeat of the ham-fisted 10K bet with Governor Perry.  Even he learns from some of his mistakes.

But the present situation is that Romney is behind.  And he knows it.  Ordinarily I would expect a candidate in that position to do something bold-announce a new initiative or launch a heretofore undisclosed attack on something substantive.

But I don't think Mr. Romney will go that way.  I think he is by nature a truly conservative man, and he seems to still believe that people will eventually understand that the incumbent President is roughly as terrible as Mitt believes him to be.

But I also think the President is, in this sense, a conservative man.  And he has the lead.  So I would be very surprised if he was anything other than cautious.

This has the makings of a boring night.  But I can almost guarantee that tomorrow each side will be harping on at least one moment and blowing its importance out of the water.

I think the post-debate polls will be mixed.  There won't be a clear winner.  But over the next few days, Romney will probably rise a little bit, just by virtue of having been on the stage with the President and not embarrassing himself.

It's 2 hours and 40 minutes until show time and the President's re-election chances are trading at 70.6% on Intrade.  I suspect that will go down a few points over the next week.  Romney, after all, is due for a successful news cycle.  Or at least a non-disastrous one.