Not much has happened in the past week. Biden retains a large lead and Trump continues to shoot himself in the foot with incompetence and unforced errors. Biden is not making any waves, which is starting to frustrate the Republicans.
There has been some speculation about Biden's running mate but there is no time table for announcement. I think there are four contenders left. This is how I rank their chances.
| Kamala Harris | 50% |
| Val Demmings | 20% |
| Susan Rice | 18% |
| Tammy Duckworth | 8% |
| The Field | 4% |
I leave a few percentage points for the field, because crazier things have happened. But he doesn't really need to pick a long shot so I suspect his short list is indeed short. Ambassador Rice is still my personal favorite, but I know her lack of electoral political experience is a big handicap.
The other forecasts continue to be bullish on Biden. Nate Silver has not released a forecast but JHK forecasts now have Biden as the favorite in contests worth 356 points. (Both Iowa and Georgia are extremely close but Biden has tiny edges in both. He's also gaining traction in Ohio.)
So it might be time to start imagining a blowout. I know that's cocky but with 18 weeks to go, why not have a little fun. And in that spirit, I'm going to rank all 56 electoral college contests in order of Biden's likelihood of winning.
| Jurisdiction | Electoral Votes | Running Tally | Milestone |
| DC | 3 | 3 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 6 | |
| New York | 29 | 35 | |
| California | 55 | 90 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 94 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 97 | |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 108 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 115 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 125 | |
| Illinois | 20 | 145 | |
| New Jersey | 14 | 159 | |
| Washington | 12 | 171 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 178 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 182 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 195 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 204 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 209 | |
| Maine 1st CD | 1 | 210 | |
| Maine | 2 | 212 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 222 | |
| Nevada | 6 | 228 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 232 | The Hillary States |
| Michigan | 16 | 248 | |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 268 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 278 | The Tipping Point |
| Arizona | 11 | 289 | |
| Florida | 29 | 318 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 333 | |
| Nebraska 2nd Cd | 1 | 334 | My Best Guess of Final Result |
| Iowa | 6 | 340 | |
| Georgia | 16 | 356 | |
| Ohio | 18 | 374 | |
| Maine 2nd CD | 1 | 375 | |
| Texas | 38 | 413 | |
| Montana | 3 | 416 | |
| South Carolina | 9 | 425 | Not Going to Happen |
| Missouri | 10 | 435 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 446 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 449 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 455 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 461 | |
| Nebraska | 2 | 463 | |
| Nebraska 3rd CD | 1 | 464 | |
| Nebraska 1st CD | 1 | 465 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 476 | |
| Louisiana | 8 | 484 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 487 | |
| Utah | 6 | 493 | |
| Alabama | 9 | 502 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 510 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 517 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 523 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 527 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 530 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 533 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 538 |
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