Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Four)

Folks, the tide has turned. Kamala Harris has had an amazing month of good fortune and better politics. For the first few months of this year I assumed that voters would eventually reconcile themselves to the fact that they had to choose between two old declining men and enough of them would choose the one who wasn't evil. 

But Father Time came for Joe Biden a little faster than I expected. Remarkably, he recognized that this was true, or at least the fact that the public believed it was true, so he stepped aside in favor of his vice-president. Then the institutional party rallied behind this decision. Since becoming the presumptive nominee, she has made a very popular choice for running mate, posted incredible fundraising numbers and staged a string of flawless campaign rallies. 

Now America has a choice between an old man, malevolent in being, choleric in temperament and declining in his faculties or a woman in the prime of life, upbeat in bearing and riding a wave of good sentiment that should carry through her convention. When the dust settles around Labor Day, this could be looking like the best presidential election cycle for Democrats since 2008.

But let's not get over our skis just yet. Harris hasn't done an interview, press conference or debate yet. A lot can go wrong and it's inevitable that a she will have a bad press cycle or two between now and November 5th. But for now, she is the favorite. And her opponent seems incapable of adjusting to this reality. 

The electoral college favors the Republican party. A few bad bounces could lead to another 2016 where Trump rides a lucky streak to the White House. He can win Pennsylvania and I'm not lighting any cigars until  that state is called on Election Night (Or the day after. Maybe Thursday. Seriously, folks, margins matter in PA. Let's get this done in a timely manner.)

I. The Roads to 270.

The colored chart at the top of this post is a list of every electoral contest from deepest blue DC to brightest red Wyoming. I don't do toss-ups, because that's boring. But any state or district in a pale color could reasonably won by either party. The darker shades are "safe." But I use that term a little more loosely than more serious outlets. They are safe for now. They are safe in a close election. I'll move the bricks around as polling and prediction markets shift. 

A. The Safe Blue 226.

Just a month ago, team Trump was eyeing Minnesota and Virginia. Trump himself was making noise about New Jersey. (That last one was never going to happen.) But for now, I thin those states are off the board. Unless something horrible happens in the next 87 days, Harris-Walz will win at least 20 contests worth 226 electoral votes.

B. The Swinging 93.

i. Michigan. This state is trending blue and I'd be shocked if Harris doesn't win it. Polymarket gives Harris as 62% chance of winning it. Until that gets over 70%, I'll leave it where it is. (Five Thirty Eight has not yet turned their forecast back on which is embarrassing).

ii. Wisconsin. Also trending blue, but not quite as fast as MI. Polymaket has it 56/44.

iii. Pennsylvania: WI and MI get Harris to 251. From there the clearest path is Pennsylvania, which gets her to exactly 270. The most recent polls have looked good there and I think Harris will probably win it. But let's face it 270 to 268 is a terrifying proposition. Especially for the 270 members of the electoral college in the states that vote for Biden. (And their alternates-thank God the electors have alternates.)

iv. Nevada.  If there is one state to flip because of the switch from Biden to Harris, it is this one. Biden was polling terribly there and Trump was polling weirdly well there all year long. I guess they like casino owners, even lousy ones. But Harris stepping in has led to a swift endorsement by the big culinary union there and it looks like the Reid machine will carry this one over the line for now. If I owned a polling company, I would spend a lot of money on this state the next two months. If Harris doesn't win PA, she probably has to win Nevada.

v. Georgia. After Pennsylvania, this state is most likely to put Harris over the top. If she wins the 251 states, plus NV and GA, she'll be at 273. A slightly less terrifying scenario than 270 to 268.

vi. North Carolina.  If I had to predict the closest margin in this election, I would pick NC. The Dems have only carried it once in the last 11 cycles but the state is nudging its way leftward and the Republicans, God love them, have nominated an absolute nutter to be their candidate for governor. It was the only state that Trump won by a narrow margin in 2020 and I hope this year it will fall the other way.

vii. Arizona.  This is another state that was very close last time and in which the Party of Lincoln has chosen a full-blown lunatic for the senate race. She will lose. But for some reason, this state feels like a reach for Harris. Polymarket still favors Trump there and I'm not ready to bet against that. Picking Kelly for Veep would have helped, of course. But I don't think AZ will be the tipping point state, so it's probably not worth worrying about. And Harris certainly has a chance to win, especially if Trump keeps making his cognitive decline so obvious.

C. The Safe Red 219.

I have written somewhat cautiously so far. I am very encouraged by the current state of the race. But I know there are limits to the popularity of the Democratic party and I'm not about to discount the possibility of attacks on Kamala Harris sticking with a certain kind of "independent voter" who think the President of the United States should be man, just the way more sensible folks believe that James Bond should always be a man. (Or God, if that's your thing.)

Part of my caution stems from the fact that I don't see Harris flipping any big states that Trump won in 2020. Florida could wind up being close. But it makes little senses for Harris to commit the kind of resources it would probably take for her to win there. Texas was fairly close last time, but I don't seeing it moving nearly five points to the left in a second consecutive cycle.  Ohio might be closer than last time and that's good news for Sherrod Brown's senate campaign. But it's not flipping Blue

One persistent prediction I have made is that Florida will again vote to the left of Texas this time. And I think they will both be Red in the end, whether by one point or five.  (The last time TX voted to the left of FL was 1988-when Dukakis-Bentsen lost FL by 22 points but Texas by 12 and 1/2 points. Good job, Lloyd!)

Other than NC, it's hard to see where Harris picks off a state that voted for Trump twice. She might win both of Maine's congressional districts, but that's hardly a trivial effect on the election. If we're talking about a blow out, then Iowa and Alaska could become kind of, sort of close. But if we're worried about that in November, then this will be a good cycle indeed.

II. The Bottom Line.

This election will be decided in seven states worth a total of 93 electoral votes. Kamala Harris needs to win 44 of those 91 votes. Trump needs to win 51 to win outright or 50 to get a 269-269 tie and force it to the House of Representatives*. 

The contours of this are shaped by how the three Blue Wall states vote. 

A. Harris has 3 Paths to winning at least 44 of these votes:

a. The Blue Wall: WI+MI+PA (exactly 44)

b. The Hybrid: Any two Blue Wall States plus NV+ GA or NC (47)

c. The Southern Belles:  NV+AZ+ GA + NC (49)

I do not see the Southern Strategy working. If Harris gets swept in the Rust Belt states, she probably does not win all four southern states. But stranger things have happened.

B. Trump's Needs A Rust Belt Swing State to get to 270:

The good news is that Trump has to win at least one of the Blue Wall states. The bad news is that winning one or more of them gives him several paths to 270.

If Trump wins one of the three Blue swing states, he has the following paths:

If Pennsylvania,  he is up to 238 and he needs either: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia 

b. North Carolina or Georgia plus NV and Arizona.

If Michigan, he is up to 235 and he needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and NV or Arizona.

If Wisconsin, he's up to 229 and needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states, he's up to at least 244 and needs to get 26 more. 

a. Georgia plus North Carolina  

b. Georgia OR North Carolina plus Nevada AND Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states and one of them is Pennsylvania then he's up to at least 248 and needs to get 22 more. 

a. Georgia and North Carolina

b. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan but not Wisconsin, then he's up to at least 253 and needs to get 17 more. 

a. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

b. Arizona and Nevada.

If Trump wins All  Three of the Rust Belt states, he's up to at least 263 and needs to get 7 more. 

a. Any of the four southern swing states would probably work. House of Representatives. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona would give him a clean win. Nevada would make it a 269 to 269 tie, which means that Trump probably gets elected president by the House of Representatives*. 

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Three)

 Kamala Harris has had a very good week. Nearly everything in the news this week has been good for her and today we saw the first meaningful polls conducted entirely after Biden's withdrawal on Sunday. The results were quite good. To put it simply, the race went from favoring Trump and trending his way, to more or less a dead heat.

Not every week will go this smoothly. But for the moment, she has reenergized Democratic voters and independents seem glad to not have to choose between two very old men.

I. Veep Stakes Update.

I still think the VP choice will be one of the five that I wrote about in my last post. But it has been fun to watch them and a couple longshots jockey for position.  I'm adjusting my ratings based on the week that was and a sharper sense of where the Electoral College will likely tip.

The Top Tier:

1. Governor Josh Shapiro. He's had a strong audition. And Pennsylvania is the most important swing state because it has the most electoral votes. He's still not quite my favorite, but he's certainly unobjectionable and the logic of picking the guy most likely to get you to 270 is pretty hard to counter.

2. Governor Roy Cooper.  Same logic as above with the added twist that Harris is said to be on very good terms with him. NC has 3 fewer EC votes than Pennsylvania and that might cost Cooper the nod here. But he's definitely getting a long hard look.

3. Senator Mark Kelly. You know what overcomes the stigma of being short and bald? Being an astronaut. Kelly is probably the best national candidate. He will be a great contrast with JD Vance. I also like the way that he and his wife are going for the job without being unseemly about it. 

The Stretches.

4. Governor Tim Walz. If Minnesota is in play, then the Democrats are probably losing. But Walz will play well in WI and MI too. He's probably had the best television appearances this week, largely driven by a simple motto "Take care of your neighbors and stop being weird." That plays really well and is a nice reprieve from almost a decade dominated by Trumpism.

5. Governor Gretchen Whitmer.  I still think she's a great candidate. But she has said she doesn't want it and I think both she and Harris buy into the notion that they shouldn't put two women on the ticket. Let me push back against that idea for a moment. Can you imagine a voter who says, "I will vote for a woman but only so long as her vice-president is a man." If you find that unlikely, then you probably understand why I don't really buy this argument. 

But the issue is probably more subtle than this. So she has to be considered a long shot. But I do think that's a shame.

The Bad Ideas.

6. Secretary Pete Buttigieg. He's great on television. And it would be fun to watch him debate JD Vance. But...no. He's too young. He needs to get a bigger job before I can take him seriously. In 2032 he will be 50 years old. That seems like a good time to run.

7. Governor J.B. Pritzker.  Well if you really want someone to balance a ticket, I guess Kamala + JB weigh about the same as Trump + Vance. But let's not take that too literally.  Pritzker has been a pretty good governor of Illinois but he's a little smarmy and picking him will bring 14 weeks of Trump making fat jokes and (more importantly) talking about Chicago in the most ridiculous ways ever.

II. The Roads to 270.

As discussed last time, I think Harris is pretty locked in for 226 electoral votes. I think she is favored in Michigan (15) and slightly favored in Wisconsin (10).   That gets us to 251.  The last 19 are the interesting part. There are 2 ways to get there.

1. Win Pennsylvania. That gets Harris up to exactly 270.  If Shapiro is picked, this is probably why.

2. Win North Carolina or Georgia plus one more state. GA and NC both have 16 electoral votes, so winning one gets us to 267 and we need just one more state.  Winning both would get us there. The  other options are Nevada (6), Arizona (11).

III. My Updated Forecast.

So I am optimistic. The race has been joined and I hope things go well. But I understand that the GOP has an Electoral College advantage. The betting markets still favor Trump. 

I'm not ready to say Harris is the favorite. We need to see more polls. We need to know her roommate. But I started by saying it was a good week, and I am going to move Wisconsin from light red to light blue. 

Onward and Upward.

A Framework for the 2024 Presidential Election

Don't call it a Morning Line. It is too early for that. But Joe Biden has been president for six full months. That is 1/8th of his term. That is 1/4 of the portion of his term before Republicans start declaring their intention to replace him and become the 47th President of the United States. 

And we have learned a few things about him and the state of politics in the Republican party to make some observations about what is likely to happen between now and three years from this month, when the parties are holding their conventions. 

This is a big-picture conceptualization of how 2024 might go. I want to lay down a few assumptions here and then get into some hypotheticals. A lot will change between now and then, but I think it's helpful to discuss a few fundamentals about the election at this stage. The short version is that I think the next election will feature the same candidates as last time and will have a similar result.  The long version follows below. 

 I. Joe Biden is very likely to be the Democratic nominee. 

Joe Biden will be in his 80s when his first term ends. A lot of people seem to think that he will not run for a second term. I find that highly unlikely, for the following reasons. 

A. Presidents like being president. You know who was the last president to be elected and then voluntarily decide not to run for a 2nd term? James K. Polk in 1848. Anyone ambitious and confident enough to run for president has a pretty solid ego. Winning only reinforces that instinct. And presidents are surrounded by people who tell them they are doing a great job. Every single one of them believes it. There is no reason to think Joe Biden will be the exception. He's going to run because the alternative is unthinkable. For God's sake Polk died three months after his term ended. Retirement is no substitute for being the President. 

B. Incumbency Helps. Being president helps with everything from fundraising to setting the narrative. There is no campaign plane as impressive as Air Force One and no rolodex like the one that would be on the Resolute Desk if people still used Rolodexes. One of the reasons the 2020 election was closer than the polls suggested it would be is that some unexpected voter blocks gave Trump the benefit of the doubt. This happens to just about every president. The thinking is that if we've survived one term with any given fella, we can probably survive two.  A distressing number of people felt that way about the previous president, no matter how terrible he was. 

Since World War 2, sitting presidents have won eight times and lost only four times. One of those four was Gerry Ford, who was appointed to the Vice-Presidency rather than elected. The presidents who lost a second term are remembered as some of the worst presidents we ever had. If Biden has any success at all, the institutional party will want to run him again and the causal voter will be inclined to choose him. 

C. He Probably Won't Face a Primary Challenger. Biden has managed to keep his centrist identity but has achieved a lot of progressive policy goals. The expanded income tax credit alone will probably be enough to make most of the left wing stay on the bench. Bernie Sanders is too old to run for a first term. AOC is too young. Any other plausible candidate knows that starting a serious campaign against an incumbent president is political suicide. They will sit this out. 

D. He is a better political option than Kamala Harris. I have talked to people who think that Biden is a caretaker president. Because of his age and the changing demographics of his party, he will step aside after one term and endorse his vice-president. But I don't see it happening. No one in the party will accept that endorsement as a coronation, which means a contested primary. That's a huge distraction and squanders the advantages of being the incumbent party. 

Vice-President Harris has not had a breakout moment to claim the spotlight. She is being a good and faithful Vice-President. She knows that she will be the heavy favorite for the nomination in 2028 and she can afford to be patient at her age. To be blunt about it-Donald Trump would much rather run against Kamala Harris than Joe Biden. She is not a great or even natural politician. She is serving her president well and that will probably be rewarded down the line. But it's not enough to jump the queue.

II. Donald Trump is EXTREMELY likely to be the Republican nominee. 

Donald Trump has spent the last six months perseverating of the result of the last election. He is actively involved with defending the rioters who tried to prevent the peaceful transition of power in our democracy. And he remains overwhelmingly the most popular figure in the Republican party. 

He is almost certain to be the Republican nominee, for the following reasons. 

 A. He's got nothing better to do. The first rule of thinking about Trump is to remember that it IS about Trump. And the common mistake that people make when thinking about presidential candidates is to pretend they are normal people. None of them are. They want power and glory in ways that very few people can relate to. 

A lot of people thought the loss of an election would cow Trump into a life away from the spotlight. Such people do not understand the brain of a true narcissist. Trump is incapable of believing he lost anything fair and square, so his brain has erected the defense mechanism needed to convince himself that he was robbed. This aggrieved act is based on certifiable nonsense and bullshit. But it is enough to keep his ego afloat., in part because the entire Republican apparatus in the media and in Congress has lined up behind his delusions.    

He is going to run because he loves attention and the only thing that can match the attention of running for president is being president. Donald Trump will happily run in a primary. He will have his center modicum for all the debates. All of the news outlets will go back to taking him seriously and give him the coverage he needs. Twitter and Facebook might even let him have his accounts back. 

B. He has cleared the field by emasculating all his rivals. 

For five years, the most important endorsement in Republican politics has been Donald J. Trump. The vast majority of Republican office holders have lived in fear of Trump turning on them. He has turned his back on anyone who does not share his belief that the last election was stolen. Even Mike Pence, as loyal a lap-dog #2 as the world have ever seen, is now persona non grata in Trumpland. The Rubios and Cruzes of the world have forfeit any attempt to credibly run against Trump in a primary. Nikki Haley, among others, has said she won't even run if Trump runs.

Of course, he will have primary opponents. There will be a nominal Never Trump candidate-Larry Hogan of Maryland will probably run. Maybe Liz Cheney will try to settle some scores if she loses next year's Republican primary for her House seat. And there will be a couple plausible candidates who at least put a toe in the water in the hopes that Trump doesn't run. Ted Cruz is so damn ambitious that he might just sign up for another round of humiliation. Like Trump, he has nothing better to do with the next 3 years of his life. But no one can beat Donald Trump in a Republican presidential primary. Off the top of my head, this is what the 2024 Iowa Cacuses might look like. Trump 53%, Cruz 19%, Hogan 14%, Cheney 4%. Rubio and Haley and a few other dumb-dumbs can fight for the scraps. If Donald Trump runs for the nomination, and doesn't die in the first half of 2024, he will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. 

C. Beating Donald Trump in a Republican Primary is a Booby Prize.

Let's pretend that Donald Trump is somehow chastened by his loss to Joe Biden. That he has some scintilla of reluctance to run again. Maybe he dawdles for another year-never declaring his candidacy and letting some others explore their options in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Maybe he even in fit of pique says that he will not run or may not run.

So the field fills up. The Hogans and Cruz' and maybe a Kasich or two decide to run. The filed takes shape. Polls start to be taken and DeSantis or Cruz looks strong.  Trump has some personal distractions-an indictment or a divorce or a fun new project somewhere. All of a sudden, people are talking about DeSantis as the better candidate.  So Trump waits and waits. The first debate happens and he's not on stage. That will be enough to snap him back into it.

He can't resist the attentions. He can't let the Republican party love someone else they way they once loved him.  So he declares after all. Maybe right before Iowa. By then a lot of talent has signed up in other camps. Cruz and DeSantis are both pros-they raise a lot of money.  Somehow, some way, they deprive Trump of a majority of delegates and agree to run together in order to lock down the nomination.

How do you think Trump reacts to that? Graciously?  Please. He will whine and bitch like the whiny bitch that always has been.  He may or may not run third party but he definitely spends the summer and fall shitting on the people who beat him. The people who conspired against him. 

Maybe he runs third party and turns the legitimate nominee into Taft '12. Or maybe he just sits on the sidelines and his minions stay out of the rigged election, this time for good. 

Trump is going to be the Republican nominee because he is the only person that controls enough Republican voters to affect the general election outcome and enough spite to use them against the Republican party.  The party is his possession. 

Now that my assumptions are on the table, let's turn to some probabilities. 

III. Democratic Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Joe Biden Will Run for a 2nd Term	96%
Joe Biden will be Nominated again.	90%
Kamala Harris will be the Nominee	5%
Neither Biden nor Harris will be the nominee.	5%

    

Caveats & Context: 

Only a health problem will prevent Joe Biden from running. At his age, that is a non-negligible probability. But he is tall and trim and has no history of alcohol or tobacco use. The actuary charts like his chances of making it well beyond 2024 and even 2028.  But things happen. If Biden doesn't run, it could mean that Kamala Harris is the incumbent. At minimum, she will be the heavy favorite and presumptive heir.  

If Biden were to simply decline to run, than Harris would still be the favorite for the nomination. But she would face a competitive primary. Andrew Cuomo would run. Sherrod Brown could make a strong run. People will talk up AOC, but I think she's too smart to do that now. (She turns 35 in 2024.)

IV. Republican Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Donald Trump Will Run for a 2nd Term	95%
Donald Trump Will Be Nominated Again	94%
Ron DeSantis Will Be The Nominee	3%
Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the Nominee	3%

Caveats & Context:

Trump will run if he is physically capable. I know some people fantasize about him being prosecuted and incarcerated and therefor unable to run. But that is very unlikely. 

The Trump organization was recently indicted along with its Chief Financial Officer, Allen Weisselberg. Some have speculated that Wesselberg could flip on Trump and cooperate with the Feds. That certainly is possible. But even if that happened tomorrow, it would take time for Trump to be indicted. An indictment is not goin to prevent Donald Trump from running for president. It would just be a fundraising message for him.  And the sort of crimes that Trump would be accused of are not easy to prove. It would require a lengthy trial.  I do no think there is enough time for Trump to be indicted, tried, convicted and incarcerated before the Iowa caucus. It's just not going to happen.  (And for the record, I think it's unlikely he will ever be prosecuted for a crime. This one prediction, I will be quite happy to get wrong.)

If Trump doesn't run, Ron DeSantis is the obvious front-runner for the Republicans. He appeals to every large swatch of the party and he manages to sound Trumpian without being an obvious moron. He has the Yale/Harvard pedigree of Cruz and Hawley, but none of the childish need to impress the faculty lounge. Assuming he is re-elected in 2022, he would be the obvious Trump successor.

There is no obvious third choice for the Republican nomination. Pence probably alienated too much of the base by you know, believing in democracy for one day.  There will be plenty of runners, but I am inclined to believe that the nominee will be a white male. The only scenario where I see that not happening is some sort of crazy brokered convention where the grown-ups settle on Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. But the party of "Build that Wall!" chants is not going to fall in love with any brown candidates. That just will not happen.

So I think DeSantis is the obvious nominee if Trump doesn't run. The only way I do not see that happen is if something disastrous happens and he is not re-elected next year. Or maybe he wins but the election is close and that puts doubts in the minds of the party establishment. That could happen, so I leave room for the field. But just three percent.

V. General Election Probabilities.

General Election Probabilities	Probability
The Democrat Wins	60%
The Republican Wins	40%
Biden Beats Trump	51%
Trump Beats Biden	34%
Biden Beats DeSantis	8%
DeSantis Beats Biden	5%
Not-Biden beats Not-Trump	1.3%
Not Trump beats Not-Biden	0.7%

Caveats & Context:

Red states netted three electoral votes from the 2020 Census. If the 2024 election has the same exact result as 2020, the Democrats would win 303-235 instead of 306-232. But it's hard to come up with a scenario where these changes put either party over 270.  A lot of the changes cancel each other out.  (Montana's gain is West Virginia's loss, Oregon's gain is Illinoi's loss, etc.) 

The only changes among really competitive states are that MI and PA each lost one and NC gained one. 

Even starting with the dreadful 2016 result as a baseline, the Dems path remains unchanged. They start with 230 and need PA (19) Michigan (15) to get them to 264. They then need one more state to win- Wisconsin, Arizona or Georgia being most likely. 

I favor the Dems because incumbency is helpful and I think the Donald Trump shtick will have worn pretty thing on the average independent/moderate voter by the time that circus gets geared up again.

But nothing is in the bag.

Let's have some fun with specific head to head match-up.

VI. Head to Head Match-ups.

a. Biden vs. Trump. There is about an 85% of this being the match-up.

Biden's polling has been solid but not spectacular. The new wave of COVID cases is not helping, even though this wave is largely caused by people refusing to get vaccinated.  I am an optimistic person, so I think the vaccines will beat the new variants and by 2024 COVID-19 will be a marginal problem. But that's not guaranteed. Biden is also vulnerable if inflation stays high (most economists don't think it will), if the homicide rate climbs (it might) or if we enter 2024 in a recession. (Too soon to tell.)

That said, I favor Biden over Trump, comfortably. The result won't be radically different than 2020 but I think the margin will be a little wider as Biden benefits from being the incumbent and Trump's shtick wears thin on the marginal voters. 

Probability:  Biden wins 67% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-209.  He picks up NC but loses WI, in part because Trump has replaced Pence with Scott Walker.

b. Biden vs. DeSantis.  

This is an interesting possibility. DeSantis being the nominee means that he was re-elected governor of Florida in 2022 and he probably won by a clear margin.  That might make the Democrats skip Florida all together. So both parties would be free to spend a lot more money in the places that can actually decide the election. DeSantis will also have the advantage of not being in his eighties. 

This would be a very close election, assuming that Donald Trump is either dead or has given DeSantis his full-throated endorsement. 

Probability:  Biden wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 267-262. DeSantis claws back GA and AZ, but the northern wall holds for the Democrats. Trump begins saying "They should have nominated Ivanka."

c. Biden vs. Generic Republican.

Generic Republican might seem formidable now but any Republican who isn't Trump or DeSantis is probably a relative newcomer to the scene.  Cruz would get crushed. Rubio isn't up for it. The Haley or Tim Scott scenarios are far-fetched to me.

Probability:  Biden wins 60% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-219. North Carolina goes blue.

The Harris scenarios are hard to handicap. Her being the nominee either means that she is the president or that Joe Biden has decided not to run for a second term. For today's purposes, we will assume she is running as an incumbent, because I thin that is more likely than Biden deciding not to run.

d. Harris vs. Trump:

Kamala Harris ran a bad campaign in 2020. She raised a lot of money and didn't even make it to Iowa. Nothing about her performance as vice-president has particularly helped or hurt her chances. 

But I think Trump would, for the 2nd time, benefit from the sexism that exists among a frightening percentage of voters. And he will not be shy about using her racial identity against her either. He could over play that, but sadly, he seems to know how to play those games better than most. I fear this scenario.

Probability:  Trump wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Trump wins 291-247.  Trump reassembles his 2016 map, save Michigan. President Trump then announce plans to sell Detroit to Canada.

e. Harris vs. Desantis.

DeSantis on paper is a better candidate than Trump. But we don't yet know if he will motivate the casual Trump voter to turn out on election day. I am guessing he would get enough of them out to win, but this would also be a close race.

Probability:  DeSantis wins 58% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: DeSantis wins 312-226. DeSantis reconstitutes the Trump map and adds Nevada for good measure.

f. Harris vs. Generic Republican.

Well, a lot has to go wrong for this scenario to play out. But I think this means the GOP had to go with their 3rd choice, and that's not good.

Probability:  Harris wins 57% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Harris wins 292-246.

g.  The Field.

Something terrible will have to happen for the Democrats to nominate someone other than Biden or Harris. That sort of means that Biden dies in the next year or so and then Harris has such a bad run as president that some shit head like Andrew Cuomo comes in and beats her in a primary.  

This is too remote to think about now. So I won't put numbers on it yet.

 

El Camino (The Road to 306, Take One)

Writing about the 2020 presidential election feels as timely as writing about the Treaty of Ghent. So much has happened since then-a 5 day delay to find out the official winner, a two month long period of denial and attempted theft by the loser, a literal riot that almost derailed the certification process and did cause an impeachment trial. But accountability is a part what we do here, so let's take one final look back at my predictions.

I. I Was (Mostly) Right.

"Well, I was wrong and I was wrong loud. I'm the Dick Morris of 2016."

Your correspondent, the day after the 2016 election.

I did better this time. I got 48 states right, all but Florida and North Carolina.   I predicted the popular vote to be 52.6% to 45.2%.  It wound up being 51.3% to 46.9%. 

The night I posted my final prediction, a Twitter follower who really knows the numbers said that if I was right, Biden might get 80 million votes. Well, he got over 81 million, despite underperforming my estimated percentage by about a point and a half.  So the real surprise of the 2020 election was not the winner or the margin but the turn out. A LOT of people voted this time around. 

November 3rd and 4th, 2020 may be the first time that being an uber-election nerd actually improved my life. Yes, I was concerned when I saw the terrible numbers in Florida. But I didn't panic. And I have the screen shots to prove it:

That was in response to my text chain freaking out about the early returns. By the next morning, (coincidentally my birthday), most of them had  moved on to lamenting the size of Biden's win.

It wound up being 306. And it wound up being seven million. Ten million would have been nice. But seven million votes is a pretty clear message to the loser-we don't like you.

Of course, Trump did turn out his people. That's what kept the race closer than it should have been. There are a few conclusions we can draw from his performance in November.

II. The Biggest Lessons Learned.

1. Jared figured out Florida. 

For the 2nd straight election, Donald Trump performed better than the polls and pundits expected. For all his cartoonish behavior and general incompetence, he twice pulled off campaigns that held together and functioned as well as could be expected. His clown show did not come off the rails enough to earn him the humiliation that he deserved to suffer.

Trump won Florida in 2016 by just over one point with 4.61 million votes. The early voting data seems to suggest a very close race and a lot of prognosticators thought it pointed toward a Democratic victory. Indeed, a lot of Democrats did turn out in 2020. Joe Biden got 5.297 million votes, almost 800K more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. But Biden lost by almost three points.

Jared Kushner figured out how to keep the Cuban-American voters in the Trump camp. The moment Miami-Dade numbers came in was the only time that I seriously wondered if Trump was going to win again.  But Trump also did well among Venezuelan and Puerto Rican voters in other parts of the state. Their ground game for early voting was excellent. Governor DeSantis probably deserves some of the credit for this, but the simple fact is that Florida moved from a true toss-up state to leans-Republican for the next cycle. 

2. Trump made advances with non-white voters.

Trump won white men by 23 points and with women by 11. Joe Biden won black and latin voters of both genders by tremendous margins. This is not surprising, but the trend between 2016 and 2020 migh surprise you. 

Joe Biden made a significant advance among white men. He lost them by 23 points, four years after Hillary Clinton lost them by 31 points. Trump made gains among every other gender/ethnicity group.

Demographic	Hillary Clinton	Joe Biden	Shift
White Men	-31	-23	8
White Women	-9	-11	-2
Black Women	90	69	-21
Black Men	69	60	-9
Latina Women	44	39	-5
Latino Men	31	23	-8

Trump's gains among minority voters probably reflect the normal boost that an incumbent gets when running for a second term. Among Latino votes, the gains can be attributed to his track record. In 2016 Trump ran as the guy who was going to build a wall on the Mexican border and end NAFTA. Four years later he was the guy who did not build that wall and who merely renamed NAFTA. (His gains in southern Texas are largely explained by this.)

Trump also benefitted electorally by at least making a play for black votes.  Most recent Republican nominees have assumed they were going to get very few black votes but Trump made a genuine effort to get some black votes. He bragged about his modest attempts at prison reform and he used the pardon power to show that he was willing to take some baby steps towards ending mass incarceration. He also chose not to follow the anti-drug zeal of his first Attorney General.  I hope that Republicans see these numbers and continue to pursue at least some time of criminal justice reform.

Trump also did better among Asian voters. They are a smaller demographic, so exit poll date is less reliable but the few places where he made relative gains from 2016 tended to be states with large Asian populations. His best performance relative to 2016 was Hawaii, where narrowed the gap by almost three points. His anti-Chinese rhetoric seems to have helped, especially among Japanese-Americans. 

3. Trump Did Worse Almost Everywhere. 

Incumbents usually win, and by a wider margin than their first election. Barack Obama was a recent exception because his win in 2008 happened at the exact nadir of the Republican brand. By 2012, the party had regrouped rallied enough to staunch the bleeding.

Incumbents who lose, usually, to borrow a phrase, get schlonged. Jimmy Carter was trounced. George H..W. Bush managed just 38 percent of the vote.  Trump made it competitive, at least in terms of the Electoral College. If you slide the result one percent to the right, Trump probably wins after a 269-269 tie. Go another quarter point, and Trump wins clean by taking Pennsylvania. 

But he did not repeat the miracle of 2016. He lost every really close state except North Carolina. Nationally the vote margin moved to the left by two and a half points. Trump only improved his performance in a handful of states-the aforementioned Hawaii (2.7%) and Florida (2.2%) are the only places where he improved by more than one percent. California (0.9%) and Arkansas (0.7%) are the only other states where he improved by even half a point.  (Nice to know the Clinton name still means something in Arkansas.)

4. Americans Still Think Republicans Are Better for the Economy, Despite All Contrary Evidence.

Polling on issues showed that voters favored Democrats on almost every issue except for the Economy. These voters simply gave Trump a pass on the recession and job losses of 2020. They blamed COVID and ignored the fact that Trump's response to COVID made those economic losses so much worse.

The American economy has consistently done better during Democratic presidencies than Republican presidencies. This has been true for decades. There is nary a stitch of data on the other side. It's comical.

I'll just put up one data point to support this absurdly solid argument-job creation by every presidential term that started while I was alive:

Presidential Term	Jobs Created (in Millions)
Clinton	12.3
Clinton 2	11.3
Regan 2	10.8
Obama 2	10.4
Carter	10.3
Reagan	5.3
Bush 41	1.9
Obama	1.2
Bush 43 2	1.2
Bush 43 2	0.089
Trump	-3

Notice anything about the color distribution there? The only blue block in the lower half was Obama's first term, and that was because America was still losing massive amounts of jobs his first year in office because of the Great Bush Recession of 2007-8.

But the American faith in "business" and particularly of the acumen of "business men" is unshakable. Even putting one in charge and that leading to an economic disaster has not changed it. Hopefully Biden will put up good numbers and win re-election. But in 2028, the GOP will still run on the bullshit lie that their dumb, failed policies are just what the economy needs.

II. What Does This Tell Us About 2024.

1, Not Much.

2020's turnout is unlikely to be repeated in 2024. If COVID-19 is still raging, then Joe Biden will lose. If (as is more likely),  COVID-19 is gone or largely under control, the election will be fought on different terms.  A lot of states will rescind or limit access to early and absentee voting. (States will Republican legislatures are salivating to do this  already.)  

COVID's biggest impact on the 2020 election might be that one party unilaterally decided not to knock on doors. The Democrats completely skipped the most elemental part of voter turnout-going to talk to voters in person. Republicans did not. That monopoly of in-face interaction probably explains why Trump's turnout game exceeded expectations. That will not be repeated next time.

And the Democratic base may not be as united in 2024 as they were this time by animus toward Donald Trump. Biden may face a primary challenge from a leftist, which will distract and depress him in the same way that Jimmy Carter (Ted Kennedy) and George H. W. Bush (Pat Buchanan) were by challenges from candidates with committed followers further away from the political center.

2.  The Scoreboard is probably 302-236.

We don't know exactly what the Electoral Vote distribution will be for 2024, but the Republicans are likely to net a few votes. The best projection has the 2020 map shifting from 306-232 to 302-236.

Texas and Florida will probably gain 5 votes. California, New York and Illinois will each lose one. Most of the other changes cancel each other out- Colorado gains, but West Virginia loses. Oregon gains, but Alabama loses. Ohio and Iowa lose but Rhode Island and New Jersey do too.

Several traditional battlegrounds will lose a vote- Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Two others will gain-North Carolina and Arizona. The country is slowly moving south. If you look at the states that were very close in 2020, it's pretty much a wash. Biden gains a vote in AZ but loses one each in MI and PA. Trump gains one in NC.

Keep an eye also on Nebraska. The Republican legislature might try to make NE-2 a little more red, although their state law limits their options, because they have to used county boundaries when drawing the lines.

3. We're Going to Do This Again, People.

A lot of voters seem to assume that Joe Biden will not run for a second term. These voters must have not met many politicians. Politicians at this level are not normal people. They have tremendous ambition and a healthy ego, even relatively nice guys like Joe Biden.  Joe Biden is old. He's also fit and trim and healthy. His father lived to be 86 and his mother 92. Joe is not going anywhere. If he is alive in 2024, he will be the Democratic nominee. 

Donald Trump also ain't going anywhere. Tomorrow Donald Trump will close CPAC with a rousing speech that the crowd will lap up. He will tell them they were robbed in 2020. He will tell them that Joe Biden is already a disaster. He will tell them, implicitly or explicitly, that he is the only person who can defeat the man who just defeated him. They will roar with approval.

Donald Trump loves running for president more than anything except the adoration that comes with being president. If he is alive, he will run for the 2024 Republican nomination. There is no one in the Republican feed who can compete with him for that prize. Most of them have prostrated themselves before his altar, and they simply can't run against his record after having followed him so doggedly. Some, like Ted Cruz will try. They will be destroyed.  There will also be a Never Trump candidate or two, the too will be destroyed. Someone will emerge as a bridge between Trump world and the Republican establishment.  He or she (Nikki Haley) will also be destroyed.

The 2024 Republican primary will be another go-round of outrageous lies and insane circus-like appearances at minor league hockey arenas by the only man who that base really loves.  After he wins the nomination, he will face Joe Biden again.  And the race will be a referendum on whether Biden's boring, conventional style has done well enough to satisfy the American electorate.

In three years and eight months I will spend part of my 51st birthday telling you who I think will win the Electoral College the next day.  Right now I think it will be Joe Biden. My best guess is Biden 318, Trump 220.  God help us all.

The Road to 538, Take 3 (In Color!)

We are less than a week from the election. The experts, more and more plainly, are saying that the result is pretty likely to be a Joe Biden win. Nate Silver puts it at almost 90%. The Economist is even more bullish. None of the forecasts that I have been tracking put it below 70%.  But how does Biden get there?

I.  Six States On the Road To 270.

There are six truly competitive states that might decide the election: Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Iowa. If Donald Trump sweeps them, he will become president. If Joe Biden wins just one of them, he will be competitive. If he wins any two of them, he is the heavy favorite.

You can play with these scenarios here: LINK.   Just click on Trump or Biden's head to give them one state, and watch the balls move from side to side.

Here is the summary of where things stand. This chart shows Biden's chance of winning the election given either outcome in any of the key states.  If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, he has a 98% chance of winning. But if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Biden has just a 31% chance of winning.

The last column shows the average number of Electoral Votes Biden will get if he happens to win that specific state.

State	Biden Wins	Trump Wins	Difference	Avg. EV
Pennsylvania	98%	31%	67%	357
Arizona	97%	67%	30%	366
N. Carolina	99%	69%	30%	376
Florida	99%+	70%	29%	379
Georgia	99%	76%	23%	382
Iowa	99%	77%	22%	382

Keep in mind that these are not completely independent variables. Success in one state correlates with success in other states. So if Biden wins a state that Trump won comfortably last time, it's a very good sign that he is doing well generally. Iowa is the smallest state in that group but if Biden wins there, it means he has improved on Hillary's 2016 result there by nine points. That implies that he is doing well in a lot of places, which is why the average EV total is so high in that last line.

II. You Guessed It-Taxonomy.

Here is a color-coded guide to all 56 races on election night, from safest for Biden (Washington, D) to safest for Trump (Nebraska's 3rd congressional district).  

DC	VT	Mass.	Hawaii	Maryland	California	New York	Del.
RI	Wash.	Conn.	ME-1	New Jersey	Oregon	Illinois	N. Mex
VA	CO	Maine	New Hamp.	Minn.	Nevada	Michigan	Wisc.
NE-2	Penn.	Arizona	N. Carolina	Florida	Georgia	Iowa	Ohio
ME-2	Texas	Montana	Alaska	S. Carolina	Missouri	Kansas	Indiana
Miss.	NE-1	Utah	S. Dakota	Tenn	Nebraska	Louisiana	Kent.
Alabama	N. Dakota	Idaho	Arkansas	OK	W. VA	Wyoming	NE-3

This noisy color scheme refers to the tiers of states that I have already created for this site. Here is a handy chart.  The last column shows what Biden gets up to as he sweeps each of these tiers.

Safe	212
Defense	20	232
Hillary Killers	47	279
Sun Belt	55	334
Toss-ups	41	375
Texas	38	413
Stretches	15	428
Out of Reach	110	538

To summarize, Biden can rest easy on most of Hillary's states. But Trump is at least making an effort in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada. 

The Hillary Killers refer to the three states that put Trump in office last time-Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also in there, but is unlikely to put Biden over the top because it's just one vote. 

Beyond those states, Biden should be competitive in three Sun Belt states. Even the more conservative prognosticators, like Sabato and 270-to-Win favor Biden in Arizona.  Florida and North Carolina could go either way, and the results there will probably decide if the election is perceived as being close or comfortable for Biden.

Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Maine's 2nd congressional district are pretty much pure toss-ups. I'm sticking with my predictions that Biden will win Georgia but lose Ohio. I am less sure of Iowa. .

Beyond that we have the dream of a blue Texas and a couple other reaches that Biden only wins if the Trump campaign implodes. 

I don't think he will implode. Turnout is high, but the data from FL and TX suggest that both Democrats and Republicans are showing up in big numbers. Over 75 million people have already voted in this election. I think we'll get over 150 million by the time we are done.

III.  The Fun Stuff: All 56 Contests, Ranked from Best to Worst (For Biden).

Here they all, in order, with a few significant milestones listed in the last column. You can print this list out and check them off as the night goes on. But people will think you are a dork.

Contest	EV	Running Tally	Milestone
DC	3	3
Vermont	3	6
Mass	11	17
Hawaii	4	21
Maryland	10	31
California	55	86
New York	29	115
Delaware	3	118
Rhode Island	4	122
Washington	12	134
Connecticut	7	141
Maine-1	1	142
New Jersey	14	156
Oregon	7	163
Illinois	20	183
New Mexico	5	188
Virginia	13	201
Colorado	9	210
Maine	2	212	Worst Realistic Scenario
New Hampshire	4	216
MInnesota	10	226
Nevada	6	232	2016 Redux
Michigan	16	248
Wisconsin	10	258
Nebraska-2	1	259
Pennsylvania	20	279	The Tipping Point
Arizona	11	290	The Sabato Line
North Carolina	15	305
Florida	29	334
Maine 2nd	1	335
Georgia	16	351	My Prediction
Iowa	6	357
Ohio	18	375
Texas	38	413
Montana	3	416	Best Realistic Scenario
Alaska	3	419
South Carolina	9	428
Missouri	10	438
Kansas	6	444
Indiana	11	455
Mississippi	6	461
Nebraska-1	1	462
Utah	6	468
South Dakota	3	471
Tennessee	11	482
Nebraska	2	484
Louisiana	8	492
Kentucky	8	500
Alabama	9	509
North Dakota	3	512
Idaho	4	516
Arkansas	6	522
Oklahoma	7	529
West Virginia	5	534
Wyoming	3	537
Nebraska-3	1	538