Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Five)

 In 2020 I updated my forecast sixteen times. This is just my fifth in 2024 and I don't expect to do another one. 

1. The State of the Race.

The race is too close to call. Extremely so.

There are only seven states that are being contested. The polls in all seven states are well within the margin of error. The most likely outcome is that one of the two candidates will sweep all seven. There are 128 permutations of the seven swing states. According to Nate silver, there is a 25% chance that Trump will win all seven and a 15% chance that Harris will win all seven.

In this situation, complicated electoral college map is pretty useless. Flip a coin seven times and you'll be in as full command of the facts as any pollster or pundit. So I'm not going to do that today. I'm going to talk about why this race could go either way.

2. Reasons for Trump to be Optimistic.

a. The American people have not disqualified him. By now I expected enough people to have ruled out voting for for more years of that amoral aspiring tyrant. I thought he would be stuck around 45 or 46 in the polls. He isn't. He's mostly between 47 and 49.  He probably wins at 49. He probably loses at 48 and will lose at 47.  It's that close.

b. The forecasts and betting markets have shifted towards him in the past few weeks. The FiveThirtyEight.com model gives Trump a 53.9% chance of winning. Nate Silver gives him a 54.4% chance of winning. 

The betting markets now lean in Trump's direction slightly more. Predictit has him as a four to three favorite. Polymarket is about 2 to 1 in his favor, although some of that is due to some distortion by Crypto Bros who want to shape the narrative that Trump is inevitible.

c. He is eager to cheat and a lot of his party is willing to go along with that. Whatever dirty trick they can pull, it shall be pulled. Trump has long assumed that this race will be won or lost in the courts because he has convinced himself that the courts cheated him out of victory in 2020. (They didn't. He's an idiot.)

3. Reasons for Harris to be Optimistic.

a. Women hate Donald Trump. The world has been unkind to incumbent parties since COVID-19. But the United States has one issue that makes our election different. Donald Trump appointed three justices to the Supreme Court and they all voted to give states the authority to criminalize abortion. Red states have not been shy about exercising that authority. Women have noticed.

b. Kamala Harris is more popular than Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Hillary was less hated than Trump in 2016 but they were both unpopular. Harris's personal approval ratings are roughly neutral. Trump is still unpopular generally.

c. The Democrats have raised more money and have a much better ground operation than Team Trump. 

d. Trump's age is really showing. He is tired and he rambles even more than he did in his previous runs. He is old and the people have noticed. I think in the end, this will make the difference.

4. Things to Ignore.

People are naturally trying to divine the meaning of early voting patterns. There are some theories that bolster Trump (especially in Nevada) and others that bolster Harris (especially with gender differences and the numbers in Pennsylvania).  But I am going to hold off on putting too much stock in any of that because 2020 was such an outlier for early and mail voting. Four years ago we were in a pandemic. One campaign acknowledged that and the other actively discouraged people from voting before election day.  The situation is different now. The overall numbers will be lower but I don't think they will be as lopsided in favor Democrats either.

5. My Updated Forecast.

This race is going to be very close. For the past few weeks Trump seemed to have a slight bit of momentum behind him. I think that has petered out. In the home stretch he looks tired and frail.

Harris has run a good campaign. I don't think she's a great retail politician but she has run well. She's done the appropriate mix of interviews, rallies and advertising. She's focused on the right issues and I think she is more likely to close this deal than not.

With one week to go, I think this is where the probabilities of each swing state stand:

1. Michigan (Harris 67%)

2. Wisconsin (Harris 60%)

3. Nevada (Harris 55%)

4. Pennsylvania (Harris 53%)

5. North Carolina (Trump 51%)

6. Georgia (Trump 55%)

7. Arizona (Trump 60%)

But there are 128 permutations for how 7 coin flips can go. Next week all 128 are possible. This is the one I find most likely:

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Four)

Folks, the tide has turned. Kamala Harris has had an amazing month of good fortune and better politics. For the first few months of this year I assumed that voters would eventually reconcile themselves to the fact that they had to choose between two old declining men and enough of them would choose the one who wasn't evil. 

But Father Time came for Joe Biden a little faster than I expected. Remarkably, he recognized that this was true, or at least the fact that the public believed it was true, so he stepped aside in favor of his vice-president. Then the institutional party rallied behind this decision. Since becoming the presumptive nominee, she has made a very popular choice for running mate, posted incredible fundraising numbers and staged a string of flawless campaign rallies. 

Now America has a choice between an old man, malevolent in being, choleric in temperament and declining in his faculties or a woman in the prime of life, upbeat in bearing and riding a wave of good sentiment that should carry through her convention. When the dust settles around Labor Day, this could be looking like the best presidential election cycle for Democrats since 2008.

But let's not get over our skis just yet. Harris hasn't done an interview, press conference or debate yet. A lot can go wrong and it's inevitable that a she will have a bad press cycle or two between now and November 5th. But for now, she is the favorite. And her opponent seems incapable of adjusting to this reality. 

The electoral college favors the Republican party. A few bad bounces could lead to another 2016 where Trump rides a lucky streak to the White House. He can win Pennsylvania and I'm not lighting any cigars until  that state is called on Election Night (Or the day after. Maybe Thursday. Seriously, folks, margins matter in PA. Let's get this done in a timely manner.)

I. The Roads to 270.

The colored chart at the top of this post is a list of every electoral contest from deepest blue DC to brightest red Wyoming. I don't do toss-ups, because that's boring. But any state or district in a pale color could reasonably won by either party. The darker shades are "safe." But I use that term a little more loosely than more serious outlets. They are safe for now. They are safe in a close election. I'll move the bricks around as polling and prediction markets shift. 

A. The Safe Blue 226.

Just a month ago, team Trump was eyeing Minnesota and Virginia. Trump himself was making noise about New Jersey. (That last one was never going to happen.) But for now, I thin those states are off the board. Unless something horrible happens in the next 87 days, Harris-Walz will win at least 20 contests worth 226 electoral votes.

B. The Swinging 93.

i. Michigan. This state is trending blue and I'd be shocked if Harris doesn't win it. Polymarket gives Harris as 62% chance of winning it. Until that gets over 70%, I'll leave it where it is. (Five Thirty Eight has not yet turned their forecast back on which is embarrassing).

ii. Wisconsin. Also trending blue, but not quite as fast as MI. Polymaket has it 56/44.

iii. Pennsylvania: WI and MI get Harris to 251. From there the clearest path is Pennsylvania, which gets her to exactly 270. The most recent polls have looked good there and I think Harris will probably win it. But let's face it 270 to 268 is a terrifying proposition. Especially for the 270 members of the electoral college in the states that vote for Biden. (And their alternates-thank God the electors have alternates.)

iv. Nevada.  If there is one state to flip because of the switch from Biden to Harris, it is this one. Biden was polling terribly there and Trump was polling weirdly well there all year long. I guess they like casino owners, even lousy ones. But Harris stepping in has led to a swift endorsement by the big culinary union there and it looks like the Reid machine will carry this one over the line for now. If I owned a polling company, I would spend a lot of money on this state the next two months. If Harris doesn't win PA, she probably has to win Nevada.

v. Georgia. After Pennsylvania, this state is most likely to put Harris over the top. If she wins the 251 states, plus NV and GA, she'll be at 273. A slightly less terrifying scenario than 270 to 268.

vi. North Carolina.  If I had to predict the closest margin in this election, I would pick NC. The Dems have only carried it once in the last 11 cycles but the state is nudging its way leftward and the Republicans, God love them, have nominated an absolute nutter to be their candidate for governor. It was the only state that Trump won by a narrow margin in 2020 and I hope this year it will fall the other way.

vii. Arizona.  This is another state that was very close last time and in which the Party of Lincoln has chosen a full-blown lunatic for the senate race. She will lose. But for some reason, this state feels like a reach for Harris. Polymarket still favors Trump there and I'm not ready to bet against that. Picking Kelly for Veep would have helped, of course. But I don't think AZ will be the tipping point state, so it's probably not worth worrying about. And Harris certainly has a chance to win, especially if Trump keeps making his cognitive decline so obvious.

C. The Safe Red 219.

I have written somewhat cautiously so far. I am very encouraged by the current state of the race. But I know there are limits to the popularity of the Democratic party and I'm not about to discount the possibility of attacks on Kamala Harris sticking with a certain kind of "independent voter" who think the President of the United States should be man, just the way more sensible folks believe that James Bond should always be a man. (Or God, if that's your thing.)

Part of my caution stems from the fact that I don't see Harris flipping any big states that Trump won in 2020. Florida could wind up being close. But it makes little senses for Harris to commit the kind of resources it would probably take for her to win there. Texas was fairly close last time, but I don't seeing it moving nearly five points to the left in a second consecutive cycle.  Ohio might be closer than last time and that's good news for Sherrod Brown's senate campaign. But it's not flipping Blue

One persistent prediction I have made is that Florida will again vote to the left of Texas this time. And I think they will both be Red in the end, whether by one point or five.  (The last time TX voted to the left of FL was 1988-when Dukakis-Bentsen lost FL by 22 points but Texas by 12 and 1/2 points. Good job, Lloyd!)

Other than NC, it's hard to see where Harris picks off a state that voted for Trump twice. She might win both of Maine's congressional districts, but that's hardly a trivial effect on the election. If we're talking about a blow out, then Iowa and Alaska could become kind of, sort of close. But if we're worried about that in November, then this will be a good cycle indeed.

II. The Bottom Line.

This election will be decided in seven states worth a total of 93 electoral votes. Kamala Harris needs to win 44 of those 91 votes. Trump needs to win 51 to win outright or 50 to get a 269-269 tie and force it to the House of Representatives*. 

The contours of this are shaped by how the three Blue Wall states vote. 

A. Harris has 3 Paths to winning at least 44 of these votes:

a. The Blue Wall: WI+MI+PA (exactly 44)

b. The Hybrid: Any two Blue Wall States plus NV+ GA or NC (47)

c. The Southern Belles:  NV+AZ+ GA + NC (49)

I do not see the Southern Strategy working. If Harris gets swept in the Rust Belt states, she probably does not win all four southern states. But stranger things have happened.

B. Trump's Needs A Rust Belt Swing State to get to 270:

The good news is that Trump has to win at least one of the Blue Wall states. The bad news is that winning one or more of them gives him several paths to 270.

If Trump wins one of the three Blue swing states, he has the following paths:

If Pennsylvania,  he is up to 238 and he needs either: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia 

b. North Carolina or Georgia plus NV and Arizona.

If Michigan, he is up to 235 and he needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and NV or Arizona.

If Wisconsin, he's up to 229 and needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states, he's up to at least 244 and needs to get 26 more. 

a. Georgia plus North Carolina  

b. Georgia OR North Carolina plus Nevada AND Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states and one of them is Pennsylvania then he's up to at least 248 and needs to get 22 more. 

a. Georgia and North Carolina

b. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan but not Wisconsin, then he's up to at least 253 and needs to get 17 more. 

a. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

b. Arizona and Nevada.

If Trump wins All  Three of the Rust Belt states, he's up to at least 263 and needs to get 7 more. 

a. Any of the four southern swing states would probably work. House of Representatives. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona would give him a clean win. Nevada would make it a 269 to 269 tie, which means that Trump probably gets elected president by the House of Representatives*. 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

A Look Back at the Midterms and a Peak, God Help Me, at 2024.

I. What Did We Learn?

I will get to my predictions report card, but first I want to discuss a few things the midterms taught as about about where the voting public is.

1. Abortion Access is Very Popular.

Any serious analysis of these midterms has to begin with the simple fact that a clear and convincing majority of American voters want abortion to be generally legal.  The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade was an electoral disaster for the Republicans. It probably determined control of the senate and might have made the difference in at least two governor's races. (Wisconsin & Arizona.)  The issues was on the ballot directly in at least five states and all five states voted in favor of keeping abortion legal. 

Voters in Vermont voted to create a constitutional right to reproductive autonomy by more than three to one. California voted for something similar by two one and Michigan voted for one by 14 points. But even in Kentucky and Montana anti-abortion measures were defeated by five points. 

The Republicans would be wise to let the Democrats codify Roe during the lame duck session. Murkowski and Collins could provide 2 votes if Manchin and Sinema are still hold outs. (Sinema, at least, would be wise to changer her mind on the that point anyway.)

But I don't think the Republicans are ready to cut ties to their hardcore base just yet.

2. State Political Parties Matter.

Democrats got amazing results in places like Michigan. They won close senate races in EVERY presidential battleground that had a contest this time. But they also got clobbered in Florida, lost some important house races in New York and (to a lesser extent) in California. 

Ron DeSantis was expected to be re-elected governor of Florida. But no one had him winning by almost 20 points. There are three things that helped DeSantis here:

1. The FL Democratic Party is just not very good. 

2. FL had a major hurricane in late summer and the response to it was pretty well organized and competent. Voters remember that.

3. Some independent and moderately conservative Republican voters probably wanted to build up DeSantis as an alternative to Donald Trump.  (Trump v. DeSantis will be the subject of an upcoming post.)

Other governors with good ground games from both parties were rewarded with wins by larger than expected margins. This happened for Democrats in Wisconsin and Michigan and for Republicans in Georgia and New Hampshire. Worth noting that Wisconsin, Georgia and New Hampshire favored people from different parties to the senate and the governor's mansion. (Michigan did not have a senate race this year.)

One governor who did struggle a bit is Kathy Hochul in New York. It's worth noting that this is her first time running for Governor. The NYS Democratic party had a bad night. Hochul can expect to be governor for as long as she wants, but she will have to grow into the job a little bit and not let the narrative around crime dominate the discussion next time. But her bigger task is to reform the state Democratic party with an emphasis on getting the Cuomo holdouts to get on board and let go of what their boss did to himself. This will not be as easy as it should be. Control of the House of Representative just might depend on it.

It appears that the California Democratic party also underperformed in some House races. Two there and 2 in New York could have kept the House blue, but that was always a long shot. 

3. Americans Like Democracy. 

The most heart-warming story of election night is that election deniers lost in every secretary of state election across the country. Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada were all in real peril of nominating someone who was very unlikely to certify the presidential election if a Democrat carried their state. The 2024 election will be far from perfect but it seems likely that every state will certify whatever candidate gets the most votes. And that makes all the difference.

4. Biden's Favorability Ratings are Deceptive.

The biggest reason that most pundits expected a Red Wave is that Joe Biden's job approval numbers have been underwater ever since he made the decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.

The 538 average has him at 42 approval, 53 disapproval. That number should have meant disaster for Democrats. But they held their own. 

I think some people disapprove of Joe Biden simply because he is old. They wish he was younger and snappier at press conferences. They suspect he has lost a step. But it is equally true that they like his policies. And I suspect in 2024 they will prefer him to the alternative, but more on that later. 

II. What Does This Mean for 2024?

A. The Primaries.

The day after the election, two story lines sunk their hooks into the Zeitgeist: Biden was going to be the Democratic nominee (correct) and DeSantis was going to beat Trump for the GOP nomination. (unlikely).

1. Yes, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee, assuming he is still alive and well. He is really fucking good at politics. The institutional party has figured this out. Look at the job he just did in keeping the Senate and nearly holding the house.  

He end our longest war. He rallied the world to the cause of Ukraine. And our economy is better off than most of the world. Some of these things may change in time to hurt him in the general election, but they will not prevent him from sailing to the nomination. 

2. Ron DeSantis is the biggest threat to Trump in the Republican primary but he is a clear underdog. 

DeSantis can probably convince a whole bunch of rich people that he is Trumpism without Trump. They will write him large checks because most of those guys (and all of their wives) find Trump to be personally ridiculous. They also now know that he's not terribly popular with swing voters and has terrible political instincts. (The GOP might have won GA and PA senate seats if Trump didn't big foot on behalf of terrible candidates there.)

3. Beating Trump in the 2024 Primary is a Booby Prize. Does anyone think that Trump will graciously accept losing the nomination to DeSantis?  If so, you have not been paying attention for the past seven years. He will either try to mount a desperate third party campaign or merely discourage his followers from supporting whoever "stole" the nomination from him. 

If Ron DeSantis wants to be president, he should wait for 2028. He can serve out the rest of his term, nominally support Trump from the sidelines and then enter the presidential race to be held two months after he turns 50. He can be a rich ex-two term president before he is 60. So the real question is, is Ron DeSantis smart enough to know this or too anxious for his own good?  He has been awfully quiet since the election That's probably best for him. He can let Trump suck up some oxygen for a few months and decide in the spring. 

I suspect he is getting a lot of calls from people telling him to announce or else they will declare for some other candidate. That will have some influence. But most of the field are light weights. He's not going to lose to Nikki Haley or Rick Scott. The only thing he has to worry about is a large field of 10 or 12 candidates forming and allowing Trump to get the nomination by winning pluralities in the key states. 

4. Keep an eye on Brian Kemp of Georgia. He beat Stacey Abrams by eight points and got more than 200,000 more votes than Herschel Walker did in the senate race. He has a much more credible story to tell as a post-Trump candidate than Ron DeSantis will.  If I'm a Republican primary voter in 2024, I might just decide that any Republican can win Florida but Kemp is the best chance of picking up Georgia. 

B. The General Election. 

A lot can change in 100 weeks, but I expect the election will probably be won or lost in just four states:  Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. Of course it's possible that either party could have a good or terrible campaign and the election will be a modest blowout. But we are still mostly working with a hybrid of the 2012 and 2016 maps.  

1. The Trump 2016 States. 

a. Florida, Iowa and Ohio have been pretty consistently Republican since then.  I think they are likely go Republican in a close 2024 election.

b. Pennsylvania and Michigan have been trending blue since then. I think they will probably go Democratic in a close 2024 election.

c. Wisconsin has been a swing state, including an incumbent Democratic governor and an incumbent Republican senator just a few weeks ago-both by close margins. It could go either way in a close 2024 election.

2. The Biden 2020 States.

Biden won back PA, MI & WI in 2020. He also hung on to NV and flipped Georgia and Arizona.

d. Georgia and Arizona are closely divided states. This year the Republican party squandered good opportunities in AZ-Gov, AZ-Ssen and GA-Sen by running terrible candidates. Brian Kemp trounced Stacy Adams in GA-Gov. And he will easily carry the state if he is the Republican nominee in 2024. But the state is moving leftward and will be competitive in 2024. (Kemp being on the ticket as vice-president would help the GOP too, but not by as much as him being at the top of the ticket.)  Arizona will be competitive in 2024 no matter who is on the respective tickets.

e. Nevada. 

Nevada elected a Republican governor this years but stayed blue in the senate. The Dems have won NV four straight times. But the margin in each of the last two presidential elections was 2.4%. This state will be competitive but because it only has six electoral votes, it is less likely to be decisive than the others.

3.  Electoral College Math. 

The picture at the top of this post is what I think the map will probably look like going into election night 2024. I give MI and PA to the Dems. FL, OH, IA & NC to the Republicans. The second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska are both in play.

 Our starting point is Democrats 259, Republicans 234. To win, the Democrats will need:

1. Georgia (16 electoral votes) 

~or~

2. Arizona (11 EV).

~or~

3. Wisconsin (10 EV) plus Nevada (6 EV)

~or~

4. Wisconsin (10 EV)  plus NV-2 and/or ME-2. 

That's what a close election looks like. Joe Biden needs to string together 11 EV from the 45 EV available in competitive races. Here's my first crack of the probability of winning for various likely match-ups.

1. Biden beats Trump 80%.

2. Biden beats DeSantis 65%.

3. Biden beats Kemp 52%.

4. Harris beats Trump 55%.

5. DeSantis beats Harris 55%.

6. Kemp beats Harris 75%.

III. Predictions Report Card.

Allow me to be a little wonky and to review the predictions I made just before the midterms. Accountability and all-that.

First Prediction: The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.

To be specific, I said the house would turn out 228R, 207D.  (Republicans gain 14 seats.)

It looks like the final result will be 222R, 213D. That's a gain of eight instead of 14. But I think I got the gist of it. 

I mostly avoided talking about specific house races, although this one will haunt me for a while: 

"Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite." Oh, how I wish I was wrong about that. But it looks like she will pull out this race by about 500 votes. And her opponent will be swimming in money next time around.

For the record, I do expect Kevin McCarthy to be the next Speaker. A few hardliners are talking him down but I don't think they can convince a majority to rally behind some other nutter.

GRADE: B+

Second Prediction: Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.

To be specific, I said the Senat would be 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.  

Here I did get specific on a few races. 

a. Arizona: Dems win. Kelly 51, Masters47. (Nailed it!)

b. Georgia goes to a runoff.  Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48. (Nearly nailed it. It wound up Warnock 49, Walker 48.)

c. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49, (Another virtual bullseye. The result was 49-48. I'll take it.)

d. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1. (Well I got the result right, but the margin was much larger than I expected, 51 to 46.)

e. Wisconsin   Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. (Actual result 50.5 to 49.5. So Barnes did about a point better than I expected.)

f.  Ohio.  Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6.  (Actual result 53-47. So Vance did a couple points better than I expected but I wasn't too far off. And Ryan did well enough to drag a couple House seats over the line for the Democrats there. They were only supposed to get three or four seats. They got five.)

g.  North Carolina.  Budd 51, Beasley 47. (Actual result: Nailed it! Bullseye! Huzzah!)

h. New Hampshire.  Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 (Actual result, 54 to 44. My biggest miss in margin. I should have known Bolduc was going to do poorly but I still think of NH as vaguely right wing. The Boston Exurbs may have finally fixed this.) 

So I was Eight for Eight in Results. My Democratic margins were off by 0, -2, -4, -1, +3, 0, -6. That's an average bias of 1.25 points in favor of the GOP.  (Can't accuse me of Homerism this year.)

I was also right in saying that IA, CO & WA would not be as close as some polls suggested.

GRADE: A.

Third Prediction: Governor Races: Treading Water, But Look at the Margin.

a. "The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes."

(Actual Result- 7 for 7 although the Hochul polls don't seem quite so funny now. She won by six and the Dems underperformed down ballot in NYS.)

b.  Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly. (Actual Results: Four out of five ain't bad but I have to own up to missing OK big.)

c. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.

(Actual Results: Happy to say I was only one for three here. Holding on to Kansas was great news, and it makes up for the loss in OK. Nevada was close)

GRADE: B.

  

The Road to 270, Take 5

The election is now 100 days away. I haven't updated my prediction in six weeks because the polls have been steady. Joe Biden is winning the national vote by eight to 10 points and seems to have multiple paths to 270. He is the betting favorite and his opponent does not seem capable of substantive change.

A lot can happen in 100 days but for the moment, it is reasonable to start thinking less about who will win the race and more about what the margin of victory will be.  I think comparing the possible outcomes to recent elections is a good framework.


I.  The Obama Coalition.

Year	Result	Changes
2008	Obama 365, McCain 173	359/179 After 2010 census reapportionment.
2012	Obama 332, Romney 206	Lost IN, NC & NE-2.
2016	Trump 306, Hillary 232	Lost PA, WI, MI, FL, OH, IA and ME-2.

In 2008 Barack Obama won the popular vote by more than seven points and the Electoral College by more than two to one. The democrats receded from that mark in the two most recent elections, but I think Biden has a shot to win every state Obama won in 2008 except Indiana. He is still the under dog in Iowa and Ohio but he could make up for those states by winning Arizona and Georgia.  So let's define a big win as going over 360 electoral votes-that is to win more EVs than the original Obama states have been worth since the 2010 census reapportionment.

A significant win could look something like winning all of the Obama states except IN, IA & OH. That would put him at 322 votes. Give him Arizona and he's up to 333, one vote better than Obama did in 2012.

A more modest victory would be anything short of the 2012 race.  And, of course, a loss would be a loss. A terrible loss would be to somehow do worse than Clinton did. If that happens, a lot has gone wrong over the next 100 days.


II. The Veep Stakes.
Last time I updated the field, I thought that the list had been narrowed down to five people. But this week Joe Biden said there were four black women still in contention. My short list had three (Harris, Demmings and Rice).  So it's safe to assume that he is considering some combination of them along with Major Lance-Bottoms of Atlanta and/or Representative Bass of California.

The betting markets still prefer Harris but I am leaning more and more towards Susan Rice. Here is my new look at the options. I hope that Biden is confident enough in his polling and prospects that he chooses the person who he thinks will make the best president. In my estimation, that person is Susan Rice.

Candidate	Percentage	Change
Harris	38	Down from 50%
Rice	30	Up from 3rd place and 18%
Bass	12	Up from unranked
Duckworth	9	Up from 8%
Demmings	6	Down from 2nd place and 20%
Lujan-Grisham	2	Up from unranked
Widmer	1	Up from unranked
The Field	2	Down from 5

III. Other Forecasts.

1. Spider Stumbled.  Holding steady with Biden 334, Trump 204. I think Biden is a 85% favorite to win.  And for the record, here is how I have predicted the other elections since the Obama coalition uhh...coalesced.

Year	Spiderstumbled Prediction	States I got Wrong
2008	Obama 349, McCain 189	North Carolina and Nebraska-2.
2012	Obama 303, Trump 235	Florida
2016	Clinton 322, Trump 206	PA, WI, MI, FL, OH, IA and Maine-2.

I was slightly cautious in 2008 and 2012 but like most people, I did not see the Trump upset coming.

2. JHK Forecasts.  They give Joe Biden a 87.1% chance of winning. Their median result is Biden 347, Trump 191. (Up from 325 to 213.)  If you award every state to the winner with a 50.00001% probability, you end up with an unchanged result of Biden 341, Trump 197. (Up from 334 to 204-they now give Biden Iowa and all of Maine's votes.)

3. Predicit it:  Their betting line is Biden 62 cents, Trump 39 cents. That is up from 58/42. Once again if you award every state to the candidate who is favored, however slightly, you get an unchanged result of Biden 334, Trump 204.  That is unchanged from last time.

4. 270towin.com  They have joined the bandwagon. They now project Biden to win with 278 votes, with Trump getting 169 and 91 votes being toss-up. Six weeks ago they had Biden stuck at 232 with Trump at 204 and 102 toss-up. They moved PA, WI and MI to Biden's column from toss-up and they have moved Ohio and Maine-2nd to tossup.

5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Yet more static;  Biden 268, Trump 204, Toss-up 66. That is up from 248/233/57 but he still has Biden short of 270. To be elected, Biden would need to win one of four toss-up states-Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida.

6.  The Economist. The Economist continues to be most bullish on Biden.  They give him a 92% chance of winning (up from 84%)  and a median result of Biden 350, Trump 192. (That's up from 335/213)  If you look at their categorizations, it's a bit more conservative-with Biden 307, Trump 185 and Uncertain 66.  They have Ohio as uncertain,  along with IA, NC, GA and AZ.  

Still no forecast from Nate Silver.  But I think that is coming soon.  His first 2016 forecast was released on June 8th. One possible explanation is that the Democratic primaries are not officially over yet because of COVID-19 delays. But it's hard to imagine that the results of the Connecticut primary on August 11th will move the needle at all.

It's Biden. (16th and Final Look at the Democratic Horserace.)

I.  The Race Is Over.

Joe Biden's nomination has been inevitable for about a month. Now it is certain. Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign for president last week. Earlier today, he endorsed Joe Biden during a charming live stream where both men basically shit on Donald Trump.  There is an obvious camraderie between them that probably comes from Biden being nice to Bernie when he first became senator. Politicians need to be many things but charming is an underrated quality that Biden has an abudnance of.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the process but did not change the outcome.  So I will take one last look at the field, with an eye towards who helped and hurt their long term prospects.

I will go through each candidate and assign a grade for how they performed-the grade will factor in their performance this year and what it means for the grade going foward. I will go in order of votes received.

1.  Joe Biden-the Nominee.

 All vice-presidents start with universal name recognition and a fundraising base. But Biden is probably the only white candidate to ever enter the field with such strong popularity among black voters. His status as the loyal and popular vice-president of the first black president positioned him to dominate the African American base in a way that made the races before South Carolina slightly irrelevant.

It's possible that 2020 will be the last Democratic race of its kind. The party should abandon caucuses next time and I don't see how Iowa and New Hampshire can possibly maintain their divine right to be the first states to vote. But four (or eight) years is a long time and maybe people will forget about the clown show in Iowa but the racial demographics of the party demand that the early state lineup be changed.

      Biden did not raise a lot of money. He underwhelmed in the debates and he performed poorly in Iow and New Hampshire. But he bounced back to a respectable second in Nevada and then rolled to victory in South Carolina. He deserves credit for not panicking and for working the right levers to get the rest of the moderate candidates to coalesce behind him when there was only alternative.

     I think he's a slight favorite to win in November. He should win back Pennsylvania and Michigan. Then he needs one more state-Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida are his best options. A lot will happen in the next 209 days, so all we can do is hope for the best.

Final Grade: A He won.

2. Bernie Sanders-the Runner-up.

Biden's popularity with black voters made him the front-runner and inevitable nominee. Bernie's popularity with young people made him the equally inevitable runner-up. Bernie had 35% of the party with him from the start. When the field looked fractured, he obviously thought that he could cruise to the nomination with a health plurality of delegates. But then the field wasn't fractured and he had no ability to grow that 35% into anything close to 50%. In 2016, Bernie Sanders won the Michigan primary but about 2 points. In 2020 he lost it by 16 points. He didn't win a single county in the entire state.

Some of this reflects the fact that Joe Biden is more popular than Hillary Clinton, particularly among rural white voters. (This was on display most cruelly in Vermont, a state that Bernie won but with 51% of the vote instead of the 86% he got against Clinton for years earlier.)

Bernie Sanders did not have a plan B. That is inexcusable political malpractice. He so believed in his revolution that he just assumed his time had come and that Biden was too weak to beat him. He was the only Democratic candidate to skip an event in Selma, Alabama the Sunday before Super Tuesday.  Black voters noticed. He got crushed on Super Tuesday and his campaign was effectively over.

Bernie Sanders is 78 years old.  He might be tempted to run in 2024, either against Biden or in an open Democratic field.  I see no sign that he has stopped believing that his way is the future. And he seems incapable of grooming a successor or even acknowledging the need for one.  But he will never be president and he will never be the Democratic nominee. He did worse than he did four years ago because he was too stubborn to reach out to anyone who wasn't 100% behind his agenda.

He will be 83 years old the next time his seat is up.  I hope he faces a legitimate Democratic candidate in the next senate race. But he can probably keep that seat for as long as his heart keeps beating. The party will probably move to the left in the years ahead.  Next time the race will probably be more favorable to black and Latino candidates. The biggest question will be whether he turns his "movement" into something durable and distinct with a new leader or if the Millennials who have now supported him twice blend into the mainstream of the Democratic party.

Final Grade: C.  He got a lot of votes, but he blew a legitimate chance to be the nominee.

3.  Mike Bloomberg- the Spender.

Well, he got what he wanted-a moderate nominee. But he spent a ton of money to get something that he probably could have had for free.  He got nearly 3 million votes and 55 delegates. He even won the vaunted American Samoa primary. Bully for him.

Final Grade: C-.  He transferred a lot of money from his pocket to various television stations. And he was humiliated by Elizabeth Warren on national television.

4.  Elizabeth Warren- the Planner.

She worked for it. She worked for as a retail politician and she worked for it as a policy wonk. Hillary Clinton is the only woman to get more vote for president than her. She won 81 delegates and did quite well in the debates. But her biggest plan was to split the difference between Biden's institutional support and Biden's insurgent popularity. Turns out there were not enough votes there to win any contests. But I think she elevated her name and will probably be a high-profile senator for years to come.

Final grade: B.  She was harmed by people who were afraid to nominate another woman against Trump but she put up a good fight.

5. Pete Buttigieg- the Little Engine that Could.

As time passes, it becomes easier to see what a colossal joke it was for 37 year old mayor of South Bend, Indiana to run for president. But he maximized his effort by saying yes to everything, including appearances on Fox News and by mastering the art of fund raising in a way that had to catch the eye of the national party.

His next move will depend on the result in November. I think Joe Biden will want him in the administration, although I don't think he will get a really plumb job like State or Defense.  Maybe he could be UN Ambassador or CIA chief. If not, he should take a job in media. Work in Manhattan, but live in New Jersey.  He can run for Senator Menendez' seat in 2024.  Maybe by 2032 or 2036 he will have enough experience to make a credible run for president.

Final Grade: A-.   He won Iowa and he damn near won New Hampshire. That is crazy.

6. Amy Klobuchar- the Alternative.

Hard to believe it, but there was a moment where it looked like she might spring to the front of this pack. After Iowa ended in a debacle, she went to New Hampshire and had the best single debate night of any candidate in the field. That translated to a solid third place in New Hampshire and a thought that she might be the centrist alternative to Joe Biden.  But she never gained ANY traction with black voters and remained unable to even offer an explanation of why they should vote for her.  That spelled doom and she got crushed in South Carolina. It then seemed like she would stick around for Super Tuesday and hope for the hometown win in Minnesota.  But then she made a pretty gutsy choice-she dropped out, endorsed Joe Biden and turned her machine into a Get Out the Vote operation for Joe Biden. It was both selfless and mature.  Her presidential candidacy will be forgotten, but she might wind up being the Vice-President or Attorney General of the United States.

Final Grade:  B. She elevated her profile and might wind up with a plumb job. But the race also showed her limitations politically. Her best moment was losing graciously.

7. Tom Steyer - the Fantasy Camper.

He spent $200 million dollars on a midlife crisis. Maybe he will end up with some cable news appearances. There are cheaper ways to get those.

Final Grade: F.

8. Tulsi Gabbard:  the Enigma.
She was stubborn enough to stay in the race even while finishing behind perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente. And then she endorsed Joe Biden, so I guess she wasn't just running to spoil the race for Democrats?  She is a deeply weird person. I still have no idea what she was trying to accomplish.

Final Grade: D-.   She had a moment in the Joe Roganasphere but her performance as abysmal.

9. Andrew Yang: the Upward Failure.

Another deeply unserious person who ran to become a celebrity. Sadly, he succeeded at this to the extend he landed a talking head job on CNN.

Final Grade:  B-.  He knew when to quit and the CNN gig was about as good an outcome as he could have expected.

10. Michael Bennet;  the Tall.
Not a lot to show for this. He got the coveted James Carville endorsement, which got him some air time on his way to getting crushed in New Hampshire.

Final Crade: F.  He probably ran his way out of the Veep stakes, unless you think Biden was always going to pick a woman, in which case no harm done.

11. Julian Castro: the Soldier.

Julian was a mediocre candidate but I want to give him props for one thing-he was the only candidate to drop out before the voting began and then actively mobilize for another candidate.  He seems to be right in the heart of the party-to the left of Biden and to the right of Bernie. His work for Elizabeth Warren was commendable, if ultimateley ineffective. I don't know what his future holds. He could try to run for governor of Texas, but that feels like a reach. He also could get a job in the Biden administration, but I'm not sure whee he fits best.

Final Grade: B-.  He at least proved himself to be willing to carry water for somebody other than himself. That's an important trait in politics.

12. Corey Booker: the Non-Starter.

I was not a fan of Senator Booker at the start of this race and I never became an outright supporter. But he was good in the debates. He is the rare politician who can manage to be funny without being mean and to be self-effacing without seeming phony.  But he just never got a groove.  I think that being unmarried held him back. And I think Biden's popularity with African American voters denied him a core of fund raising opportunities that might have allowed him to run a more robust campaign early.

Final Grade:  C+.  I can't tell you where he went wrong, but he never got going. It seems unlikely that he will ever be the nominee, although a wife and kid or two might help.


13. Marianne Williamson: the Space Ghost.
There can be only one.
Final Grade: F.  Get the fuck out of here, Space Ghost.

14. Deval Patrick: the Regrets Avoider.

He probably could have made a credible run if he committed early but he waited until the last possible moment and then got crushed. The best news for him is that he joined so late that he never got in a debate and can probably hold out some hope that no one will remember he ever ran.

Final Grade: D. He might have been a Veep candidate if he never ran but could still wind up in the cabinet.

15. John Delaney: The Millioinaire With an M.
Sort of a mini-Bloomberg. He spent $14 million dollars and got humiliated by Warren in one debate, instead of two.
Final Grade: D. Each of his four kids has three and a half million reasons to be mad at Dad.

16. John Sestak: The Admiral.
Final Grade: F. He's an admiral, you know.

17. Kamala Harris: The Failed Plan.
Harris was a great candidate on paper and she got some traction after the first debate. But she did poorly after that and had the good sense to drop out before the voting started. (It should be noted that she is this low on the list because she actively removed herself from ballots in many states. Most candidates do not bother to do that. I think Klobuchar is the only other candidate to do that, although it was too late for her to do it in the Super Tuesday states.)

Harris' major strategic error was to base her campaign on a middle class tax cut that nobody was clamoring for. It forced her to be more modest in spending proposals and didn't really inspire anyone. Doing this poorly from the lofty heights of a California senate seat is inauspicious. But the good news is that she didn't seem to make any enemies along the way. She is on the short list for Vice-President. If she doesn't get that she will probably be in the cabinet. Or she can be a senator for as long as she wants.  Final Grade: C+.

18. Steve Bullock: The Future Senator.
He really didn't want to be a senator, but it looks like that is what fate has in store for him. He is in some ways the anti-Bernie. He would have been a very good general election candidate but he just wan't liberal enough to catch fire with the base.  He is a modest favorite to win the senate election and I think he has a bright future.  Final Grade: C.

19. Jay Inslee: The Competent.
His presidential campaign didn't do much for his reputation or future but his role in handling the first major breakout of COVID-19 sure is.  He may not be a good fit for any cabinet posts but if Trump is re-elected, he might be the 2024 front-runner.  The recent pattern in this country is to elect a president for two terms and then elect someone who is the opposite of that president. And if there is one thing Donald Trump ain't, it is competent.  Final Grade: C.

20. Beto O'Rourke.  The Face.
He may have expended some of his political magic on this race, but guys like Beto do not go away. He probably can't win a state wide race but Biden obviously likes him and that puts him in line for a good job. Hopefully he can avoid being stuck at HUD or Transportation. He should push for UN Ambassador or the Commerce Department.  Final Grade: D.


21. John Hickenlooper.  It's True. He Ran. Final Grade: D.

22. Kristin Gillibrand: The Forgotten.
She vanished in this campaign. Like Harris, she had a position that should have made it easy to raise funds. She also aggresively staked out anti-Trump bona fides with senate votes against all of his cabinet nominees. But she never got anywhere. I don't think she ever got a crooked number in a single poll.  That is staggering. She wasn't ready for this race and she probably doesn't quite fit in the party nationally.  Unlike Harris, she seemed to step on a few toes and there are resentments against her among the donor class.  (Some of these are unfairly rooted in her principled stand against Al Franken. Others seem more personal than substantive. But it feels permanent.)

She can become a solid if not spectacular back-bench senator or maybe run for the governor's mansion if we assume that Cuomo will decline to run for a 4th term.  Frankly, I'm not sure she would win that primary. Her low profile in 2020 suggests to me that she's not sure what to do next.  Final Grade: F.

The Other Failures.

23. Eric Swalwell.  Has been a good sport on social media. Maybe he can rebound, but it will take a while.
24. Tim Ryan. A nice enough guy.
25. Seth Moulton. Probably not cut out for national electoral politics but he has a lot to offer the country, in some capacity.
26. Wayne Messam.  He once raised $5 dollars for an entire quarter.
27. Bill de Blasio.  Might want to give him an F-. It's hard to finish behind a guy who raised $5 for a presidential campaign in an entire quarter. But this race was quixotic to begin with and since he ended, he bet on the wrong horse (Sanders) and failed to prepare his city for the COVI-19 pandemic.  He is thankfully term-limited as maory and he feels toxic at the moment.

II. A Quick Moment of Accountability.

One of my many peeves with punditry is that the professionals are never held accountable for their terrible projections and opinions.  What follows is just my attempt to grade my own handicapping. It's not a very lively subject, so feel free to skip.

I did my first look at the field on December 30th 2018. It took 501 days for there to be only one candidate left standing. Here is how I ranked them then, with their final finish in parenthesis. Shoutout to all eigh prospects who never ran.

1. Bernie Sanders (2)
2. Joe Biden  (1)
3. Kamala Harris  (17)
4. Elizabeth Warren (4)
5. Corey Booker (12)
6. Beto O'Rourke (20)
7. Amy Klobuchar (6)
8. Sherrod  Brown
9. Michael Bloomberg (3)
10. Krsitin Gillibrand  (27)
11. Eric Holder
12. Andrew Cuomo
13. Terry McCauliffe
14. Chris Murphy
15. Eric Garcetti
16. Mitch Landrieu
17. Steve Bullock (18)
18. John Hickenlooper (21)
19. Jay Inslee (19)  Nailed it!
20. Tim Ryan (24)
21. Howard Schultz
22. Tom Steyer (7)
23. Pete Buttiegieg. (5)
24. Some Dumb Celebrity (Let's give this slot to  Marianne Williamson)  (13)

When the race started I gave Bernie an 18% chance of being the nominee and Joe Biden a 14% chance. I think I understated both possibilities.  They were the front runners in their respective lanes. The only questions were would they run and would a younger candidate emerge to knock them off their respetive totems.

I knew that Bernie would run. I was less sure that Biden would. He hesitated a bit and did not start strong. But he found his groove and the party was waiting to receive him. 

There were three women who I thought might have moved up to the front of the pack. None of them caught fire, each for slightly different reasons. But I am willing to say that they all suffered from the democratic basse being skittish about nominating another woman to run against Trump. I am glad that Biden has committed to selecting a female running mate.  It simplifies the process. There are several good options and it will be at least some measure of progress.

As time passes and our lives become dominated by COVID-19 it really is remarkable that the 37 year old mayor of a college town put himself in the top tier. He won Iowa and damn near won New Hampshire. He did this by building a good oranization and an even better brand. He was the gay veteran who shared the values of the typical white moderate voter.  His campaign will be a case study on both the strengths and limitations of branding in politics. 

Meanwhile, three perfectly competent and popular sitting governors ran to nowhere. Jay Inslee, Steve Bullock and John Hickenlooper all crapped out before the first caucus. That should be a case study too.  Whatever party lose the 2020 election would do well to give a long hard look at governors in 2024. They will have a lot of crisis management on their resume and a lot less of the Washington media circus on their breath.

I can't exactly brag about my predictions. Bernie and Biden were the obvious front-runners. I thought that Bernie was popular enough with the larger party that his very enthusiastic base would make him tough to beat. But the party looked at the result in SC and decided they knew who needed to be the nominee.

I think Joe Biden is a good man. He has flaws, and they could cost him this election. But he has charm and style and people like him. There is only one opponent left for him to beat. And anyone who really opposes authoritarianism, should do whatever they can to help him do so.




III.  Monotous Details:

I had Bernie in first for the first four post.  Biden was second each time.  I moved Biden to first after he officially entered the race and moved Bernie to second.  For the eight post (October 2019), I moved Warren up to first followed by Biden, then Bernie. For the 9th, I moved Biden back to first, Warren down to second and kept Bernie 3rd. In January, I moved Bernie ahead of Warren and kept Biden in the lead.

In my 12th post, just after Iowa,  I put Bernie back in front, with Biden in 2nd and Buttigieg 3rd. After New Hampshire, I got really spooked. My 13th post had Bernie first and Buttigieg second. I also bought the Amy Klobuchar boomlet and placed her third. I had Biden down in sevent.

I was still a little skittish after South Carolina. My 14th post still had Bernie in front, but Biden was back up to second. Warren, Klobuchar and Bloomberg rounded out the top five. After Super Tuesday, I of course put Biden back in first and Bernie in 2nd.











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The Road to 270 (2020 General Election Prediction, Take One)

This is the year that Americans will decide whether Donald Trump gets a second term.  At this moment, he is a very slight betting underdog.   Prediction markets have it at about 51/49. That's not just within the margin of error. It is a true toss up, with 307 days to go.

I. The Fundamentals.
This election is hard to handicap because the incumbent has unconventional strengths and historic weaknesses. For example, Donald Trump is generally unpopular. His current approval rating is about 43 percent.  At an equivalent point in their presidencies, Barack Obama was at 45%. George W. Bush and Bill Clinton were in the 50s. But the economic news is more good than bad.  Growth has slowed but the job market is solid and the stock market is performing well. It is possible that Trump's tariffs cost him a lot of votes in agricultural states but if the job market stays strong into the spring, then the economy will probably be a net benefit to him.

II. The Variables.

A lot can happen in 44 weeks.

1.  Impeachment. It seems now that Impeachment will not result in removal from office. But it's also possible that more direct evidence of Trump's corrupt actions in Ukraine. That will hurt his polling, even if he gets a brief bump from his likely acquittal by the senate.

2.  Foreign policy.  Both Iran and North Korea have ramped up their agitation of Trump in recent weeks.  North Korea has been dangling the possibility of new weapons testing. Iranian back militias have escalated their activity in Iraq. Trump responded with missile attacks on targets in Iraq. This was done over the objection of the Iraq government and resulted in massive protests at the American embassy in Baghdad.

Anything from a full  on war with Iran to a withdrawal of all American troops from the region are possible. I say this because the person making these decisions is a reckless imbecile. If he thinks either of these options will help him win a second term, he will not hesitate to do either.  The best hope for the world is for Donald Trump to believe that relative peace is in his own best interest. Fingers crossed.

3. The Democratic Nomination.There are two ways to read the polls so far. One is that the experienced popular moderate, Joe Biden has maintained first place over many months because he is well, experienced popular and moderate.  The other way to look at is that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are both quite progressive candidates and their combined support is roughly equal to Biden's. If one of them emerges as the lefty challenger to Biden, then the race will be close.

III. The Forecast.

For our purposes, I will start the forecast assuming the Democratic nomination is a "Generic Democrat."  My central thesis is that Trump won in 2016 because he turned out a lot of new and inconsistent voters.  He was helped in this task by the fact that his opponent was very unpopular.

We start with the 2016 electoral map.  Trump won 306 votes, Hillary 232.  I believe that a generic Democrat should win back Pennsylvania (20 votes) and Michigan (16).  That leave us with Democrat 268, two shy of enough to win.

If the race were held today, then the next president would be the candidate who wins Wisconsin. Wisconsin may be the new Florida.  They did elect a Democratic governor in the blue wave of 2018, but just barely.

So here is my official 2020 electoral map:

So the official prediction is a punt.  To be specific: Generic Democrat 268, Trump 260, Toss-up 10.
If Donald Trump wins Wisconsin, the Democrat will need to pull an upset somewhere else. Here are a few possibilities:

1. North Carolina
2. Arizona
3. Georgia
4. Nebraska 2nd Congressional District plus Maine's 2nd congressional district.

Any of these is possible but none are likely.  The Democratic nominee will also need to defend Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia.

IV.  The Opponents.
As the nomination contests get under way, voters will be mindful of who can win the election.  Here is how I would adjust the map if I knew that the nominee would be each of these people.

a Biden 278, Trump 234, Toss-up 26.

I think Biden would hold all of the Generic Democratic states and add WI.  I would also move AZ and NC to too close to call.

b. Sanders 255, Trump 260, Toss-up 23.

I think Sanders would hold most of the Generic Democratic states, and he might win Wisconsin. But I don't really like him as a candidate in Virginia, so I move that to close-up.

c.  Warren  248, Trump 260, Toss-up 30.
I think Warren will have a hard time in Pennsylvania, so I move it to toss-up. She might also struggle in Virginia, but I favor her slightly there.

d.  Buttigieg  262, Trump 270, Toss-up 6.
I think Buttigieg will lose Wisconsin. And I don't think he can pull an upset in AZ, GA or NC.  I also move NV to toss-up.

e.  Bloomberg 219, Trump 303, Toss-up 16.
People do not understand how unpopular President Bloomberg would be in gun states. I think Trump wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Michigan would be close.

f. Klobuchar 279, Trump 248, Toss-up 11.
I think she wins Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Arizona would be a toss-up.