2024 Begins (Iowa Caucuses)

 Tonight some modest number of Iowans will brave sub zero temperatures and lumber their way to fire houses and gymnasiums to begin the formal process of picking the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. His name is Donald Trump.

But four other bozos are trying to upset him. So let's play along. Here is my official prediction for tonight:

      Trump 53%

      Haley 21%

      DeSantis 20%

      Ramaswamy: 5%

      Hutchinson: 1%.

So there will be something to watch for tonight-the battle for second place. If DeSantis doesn't win second, he will have to give some consideration to dropping out. But I suspect he will stay around for awhile. Hutchinson will probably drop out tonight. Ramaswamy has nothing better to do with his time.

So what happens next?

New Hampshire, of course. There have been some polls that showed NH being more competitive than Iowa. If you squint, you can convince yourself that Nikki Haley will make it close. Maybe only lose by ten points. New Hampshire does have a history of rejecting Iowa's winner. And there will be some number of Democrats who choose to vote for her since the Democratic primary is not sanctioned by the party and Joe Biden isn't even on the ballot there.

 But Trump's going to win. Probably by closer to 20 points than to ten.

Then the race turns to South Carolina. Nikki MUST win there to even pretend she can beat Trump. If she loses her home state, (and I expect she will), then she'll be out of the race promptly.

In a normal year, there wouldn't be any candidates left to run against Trump. But, this year, there's this other thing.

This Other Thing.

Donald Trump is facing four separate criminal trials: one in New York that no one cares about, one in Florida that the judge is set on delaying as much as possible, one in Georgia that is complicated by the number of co-defendants and one in Washington DC that is set to being on March 4th.

I think there's a chance that one or more Republicans will stay in the race even after getting drubbed in the early primaries because they will know that chaos is likely to come and they will want to grab as many delegates as possible before that happens.

Trump is desperate to get this trial delayed. And he might succeed. But I think it will go, if not on March 4th than sometime before May. If that trial goes, he is very likely to be convicted of at least one felony. That would normally get him him thrown of the Republican ticket but the Republican party in 2024 is anything but normal. Trump will appeal his conviction and cry foul, as he always does when he faces a setback. By April 2nd, more than 3/4 of the delegates will have been awarded but a conviction would leave at least some doubt on the identity of the nominee. 

One or the other-an acquittal or a persistent march through to the required delegate number, Donald Trump will be the nominee. He will not get out of the race gracefully. He controls the party apparatus thoroughly enough he will ward off any legal or technical challenges.

I suspect that no later than June 1st, the world will realize that Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for President on Election Day, 2024. 

Meanwhile....

Meanwhile Joe Biden will safely, surely move his way through the primaries. Dean Phillips might do some numbers in New Hampshire, since Biden's name isn't on the ballot. But that won't move the needle and Joe Biden will vacuum up most of the delegates elsewhere. By May, the electorate will finally accept what has been obvious to anyone since November of 2020-Joe Biden will be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024.

He certainly deserves to be. He has been a great president, both domestically and on foreign policy. He got important and productive legislation passed at home. And he has stood for America's commitment to Democracy and our alliances abroad. It's been over two years since an American service member lost their life in foreign combat. But NATO is stronger than ever. Russia looks week and despite some caterwauling from the Tiktokigentsia, he made the right decision to support Israel's right to defend itself against the brutality unleashed by Hamas on October 7th.

And oh yeah, a year ago most economists thought we would be in a recession by now. We ain't. In fact, the economy is growing great, job growth has been incredible and real wages are up. If this is news to you, you need better news sources. Because the media narrative has been quite different and the zeitgeist of the electorate seems to be "Economy Good when Gas Prices Low" which is exceptionally stupid.

The General.

Biden's success does not assure him of an easy election. His age is a negative. The public is weary of the situations in Ukraine and Israel. Many voters are not sophisticated enough to understand that Biden's policies have been principled and productive. They just want the world to be safe and normal, as long as it doesn't cost them anything to achieve that.

But sometime this summer, or early fall, the American people will realize that they have only two choices for President. I expect that gradual realization to favor Joe Biden. Because the other choice is a raging doofus. For all the talk of Joe Biden's age, Donald Trump seems to be older, more frail and in generally bad health. He's also nuts. Like, really, really nuts. Talk to the Pepsi machine at the laundromat nuts.

That doesn't mean he can't win. In fact he has a plan to do just that. His job is to convince people that every problem in the world is Joe Biden's fault. His biggest assets are the migrants who are showing up at the border every day and being promptly bussed to cities that Trump wants to make look bad. Those cities are legitimately straining at the burden. I doubt that House Republicans will agree to any package of compromises that allow improvement in this situation. (To be clear, yes I believe the Republican party is intentionally setting out to let many thousands of poor people make their way to this country so they can be dumped out on the street and make Joe Biden look bad. If this works, the first people to suffer will be those very unfortunates who are currently being used as pawns in this game.)

This Shit Can Work.

Four Years Ago when I did my first post about that election, I declared the race a dead heat. I said Biden lead in 268 electoral votes and Trump in 260. My best guess was that Wisconsin would determine the winner. That was before COVID-19. By April I said that Biden was the modest favorite to win. 

That's about where I am right now. It's customary to say something about "if the election were held today." But the election is not being held today or a week from now. A large swathe of the electorate still thinks that a bunch of farmers in Iowa tonight and another bunch of Boston suburbanites will get together this month to hand them choice more palatable than Biden and Trump. But that will not happen.

Both parties are sticking with their choice from last time. Neither party thinks that is ideal, but both think it is better than the alternatives. For Democrats, they have to run on Biden's record. Not nominating him would make that suspect. And incumbency is powerful while competitive primaries are usually fatal for the incumbent party. For Republicans, the majority of their membership simply love Trump for what he represents a rich guy who is proud of his own ignorance. He also gives legitimacy to their prejudices and simplistic solutions.

This campaign will be ugly. Trump will try to make Americans afraid of immigrants and foreign allies and taxes and math. Biden will beat the drums of abortion rights, prosperity and the importance of remaining committed to democracy here and abroad.

Biden is vulnerable, as is every incumbent to world events. A terrorist attack, a disruption of shipping lanes or a huge setback in Ukraine would make him look weak and his foreign policy look like a failure.

I'll do my first official forecast after the first few primaries. But if I had to bet right now, Biden will win the popular vote by three or four points. I don't see him expanding the electoral map. Maine's 2nd congressional district and North Carolina are his only really plausible pickup opportunities. He very well could love Georgia and/or Arizona. Some think Nevada will go red, but I think Trump's negatives will keep that home. Let's say Biden 293, Trump 245. 

First Republican Debate Reaction

 This debate was silly from the start because the nominee did not participate. That said, in true Republican fashion, let's hand out some participation trophies.

1. Ron DeSantis. Grade: C+

Boring and uninspired. Everytime he mentions that he "deployed with the Navy Seals", I cringe. He was a JAG officer, not a platoon leader. 

2. Vivek Ramaswamy. Grade: F (on substance) B+ (for his audience)

Earlier today Vladimir Putin murdered ten people by shooting down a plane over his own territory. Tonight Vivek Ramaswamy doubled down on the idea of letting him keep part of Ukraine so that we can then convince him to become an American ally. He was rightly ganged up on by the other candidates for this moral cowardice. But he has a huge political advantage in this primary.   

He also picks up on a piece of the Fox News message that most politicians are afraid to acknowledge-the idea that America itself is in decline. That was part of what won Trump the 2016 nomination. It will also be what wins him the nomination in 2024. All that B roll of riots and trans people have instilled a fear that only Vivek seems to understand. He is a gross human being but in the cynical politics of the present Republican party, he connects with the rest of the gross human beings who comprise that base.

I was hoping tonight would be a disaster for him. But he played his part pretty well. I expect he will go up in the polls over the next few weeks. Of course, he will not be the nominee. But one thing to look for as we get closer to Iowa- we'll know we have a real primary when Trump starts to casually mention that Vivek is a Hindu. 

Most of the candidates on that stage did their best to talk like a Fox News host but Vivek effortlessly thought like a member of the Fox News audience. He really is as dumb as the people he panders too.

3. Mike Pence.  Grade: D

He was annoying and overly aggressive without saying anything of substance.

4. Nikki Haley. Grade: B.

She had some good moments and didn't embarrass herself.  She landed some punches on DeSantis and Vivek. 

5. Chris Christie. Grade: C

He felt pretty canned and, as always, obnoxious. He was the only person on the stage with a reputation for being a good debater and he under performed. 

6. Tim Scott. Grade: C+

He likes mentioning that he was raised by a single parent. But good lord is he forgetable.

7. Asa Hutchinson: Grade B-

He had a couple flashes of principle, which were admirable. But he's another boring off-the-rack Republican who will never gain traction in this field.

8. Doug Burgum: Grade C+

Probably the best potential president on the stage tonight, which does not say much. He was pretty mild and that's not going to move the needle. But good on him for playing hurt, Doug. 

Bottom Line: Once more, with feeling: Vivek Ramaswamy is a horrible human being. 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

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