How I See It, How Trump Should See It.

 Well, it has been a week. Six days ago, Kamala Harris dominated her first (and probably only) debate with Donald Trump. She was great on a lot of levels but my favorite part of her performance was how she reminded people just how tiring Donald Trump's whole shtick is. She baited him repeatedly and he walked into it every single time.  Because he's a baby. 

Since then he has spent his time insisting that he won the debate, doubling down on racist lies about Haitian refugees eating pets and refusing to do a second debate. (Probably his best decision in quite awhile.)

The post-debate polls have been generally good for Harris. As for my official prediction, I'm sticking with Harris 292, Trump 246. I think the popular vote result will be similar to 2020 and there will not be many changes in the electoral college either.

I. How I See It.

A. Swing Stones Leaning Blue

I am reasonably confident that Kamala Harris will win Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. I also think she is more likely than not to win Pennsylvania. These states will get her over the finish line with 276 votes.

B. True Toss-ups

The polls in Arizona, Georgia and Arizona have been close. I can imagine any of these states going either way. If Trump sweeps them, the election will be close and he will try like hell to steal it. Every state that Harris wins here will make it harder for Trump to do another insurrection. (It's so sad that we have to think this way, but we do.)

II. How Trump Should See It.

In my previous post, I divided the swing states into three northern states and four "southern." That was because Harris needs to sweep the three northern states (WI, MI, PA) to get to exactly 270 votes and win the election.  For any northern state that she loses, she has to make up the equivalent number in the four southern states.

For Trump the math and the geography work a little differently.  Trump should win at least 219 electoral votes. To get to 270, he needs 51 more.  The easiest path there is to sweep Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. So for today's purposes, we'll call those three states The Eastern Swing States. 

For ever electoral vote Trump loses in the east, he has to make up for them in the four "western" states.

Here are the combinations that put Trump in the White House. Because GA and NC are both worth exactly 16 votes, they are interchangeable in these scenarios.

IIII. How Forecasters And Markets See It.

I think Harris is about a two to one favorite now. Let's call it 66% chance of her winning. Harris has run a very good campaign and Trump continues to step on rakes. Harris has a fundraising advantage and unlike last time the Democrats will be out knocking on doors this fall. 

Trump is going to lose the popular vote but he can still win enough swing states to get to 270. His biggest problem right now is that a lot more voters have made up their mind against voting for him than have made up their mind against voting for his opponent.

Almost all of the forecasters like Harris better today than the did a week ago.  Even Nate Silver has her chances up by a full five percent from right before the debate.

Nate Silver and his former baby, 538.com  are still 17 points apart because they moved in the same direction this week.  But like Harris about five percent more than they did before the debate.

As for betting markets, Predictit.com favors Harris 57 to 47 and Poly Market has the race must closer with Harris leading 50% to 48%.

Harris could not have asked for a better week. She continues to do well, the public is warming to her and her opponent continues to be a decrepit whiner.  

Seven weeks to go, citiens.

Debate Night! 2024

The second debate of the 2024 general election will be begin in under four hours.  It is the first debate to include Kamala Harris.  As I usually do, I will post some questions that I would like to hear the candidates be asked tonight.  But first, a quick word about the state of the race.

I believe that Harris will win the popular vote by something between three and six points. I believe she will sweep the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I also think she will win Nevada. I think Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona are true tossups that either candidate could win if the election were today. So my hunch is that she will win one or two of those, but not all three.

This is slightly more bullish than the average forecast, as you can see below.

I. The State of the Race.

The race is very close. Most recent national polls have been within two points. Harris has led in the majority of them, but that doesn't tell us much since she probably needs to win by a point and a half or two points to become president. The professionals and hobbyists who look at this stuff in some detail tend to put the likelihood of either candidate winning somewhere between 40 and 60 percent.

Which of course is making everyone on Politics Twitter mental.  The uncertainty is grating and not everyone is taking it in stride. But I don't think there's much difference between 60/40 and 40/60 when there are eight weeks to go. Here I have round up the predictions from various models and prognosticators. And I'll include myself because well, why not?

That's quite a spread, but of course the two most optimistic forecasts are amateurs with a rooting interest. The real divide seems to be between 538.com and it's prodigal son, Nate Silver. 538 gives Harris a nearly 56 percent chance of winning but Nate only a 38.4 percent chance of winning

II. Questions That Should Be Asked.

1. To Donald Trump, "Who won the 2020 election for president?" 

I'd like to get even more specific and ask Trump which states he is willing to admit that he lost last time. But last week Trump seemed to make some news in admitting on a podcast that he lost "by a whisker." He probably said that to avoid the podcast host from beating him up on election denialism. I think the moderators need to push further on this today because well, shit, democracy matters.

2. To Kamala Harris, "How would you have handed the withdrawal from Afghanistan differently than Joe Biden and Donald Trump did?"

I continue to believe that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the most successful large-scale operation carried out by the American military this century. Many disagree with me on that, although, none of them can name one more successful.  But this is an issue and I want to hear both her talk about it and Trump respond to it.

3.  To Donald Trump. "You are awfully fond of Vladimir Putin,  the House of Saud, Xi Jinping and Kim Jung Un. Do you believe it is important for America to promote democracy abroad?"

I am recycling this from my post about the June debate, because I think it's a great question.

4. For Kamala Harris: "Why specifically did you change your views on fracking since 2019?"

5. For Donald Trump: "The first time you ran for president you promised to balance the budge and pay off the debt in four years. Your current campaign is predicated on a lot of tax cuts and a lot of new spending. The only new revenue source you have endorsed are tariffs on all imported goods. Have you crunched the numbers on all of these plans and how much do you think the national debt will be four years form now if you are elected."

6. For Kamala Harris " Do you think that any tariffs currently in place contributed to the inflation of the past few years and will you repeal or reduce any of them?

7. For Both Candidates:  Three out of four of your parents were immigrants. Mr. Trump's father was born about 2 year after his parents arrived in this country from Germany.  Why do you think so many voters s have hostile feelings about recently arrived Americans and what will you do to change that?

As always, I would also like to have them answer the questions on the test to become a naturalized citizen but I don't think we will get anything like that tonight.

III. If This Were a Baseball Game.

As the election proceeds, I will play around with probabilities from a different passion, baseball.  

To think of think of the election as a baseball game. We'll treat the remaining weeks as innings. And we'll make Harris the home team, since we are root, root, rooting for her and if she doesn't win it will be a shame. 

So with eight weeks to go, the game goes to the second inning today. 

A. 538 Baseball Forecast: The game is tied in the top of the 2nd. There is one out and no runners on base.

B. Nate Silver Baseball Forecast.  The visitors have a 2-0 lead in the top of the second. There are two outs and no runners on base.

Bottom Line: A lot of baseball left to be played.

 

We're Doing this, America. We're Doing This Again.

 

The first debate of the 2024 general election is tonight. This is very early for a general election debate but this debate is important because we are likely to only get one more after tonight. 

It's also important because I think tonight will be the night that the average American finally accepts the fact that this election will be between the same two guys as last time. So I want to get a few thoughts out there.

1. Expectations.

The first debate is always bad for the incumbent. Trump got his ass kicked. Obama got his ass kicked. W got his ass kicked. GHW Bush came in third. Reagan did so poorly that concerns about his age came back out in the public. Only Bill Clinton held his own. Nixon didn't do any debates.

My explanation for this is that sitting presidents are not used to being on a stage with someone who must be treated as an equal. They are to used to having people defer to them and it disorients them when an opponent pushes back on everything they say.

But tonight might be different. For one thing, these are both men who have been president. And for another, Donald Trump lives in a bubble of ass-kissing sycophants way bigger than the West Wing of the White House.  Biden also has the advantage of not being crazy.

The Republicans have spent four years telling their voters that Joe Biden is a drooling moron. About a week ago they realized this was a mistake and have since been speculating that Biden will be hyped on something or other. (Some say Gatorade, other say prescription drugs. I wish I was making this up but we really do live in a very dumb time.

Biden does have to avoid looking old. He will probably have at least one moment where he looks confused or uses the wrong name, gets a fact wrong or maybe embellishes the truth a little. That's not great. But the guy at the other podium will be ranting and swearing and lying.

II. Questions That Should Be Asked.

1. To Donald Trump, "Who won the 2020 election for president?" Joe Biden's response better begin with something like, "He's not man enough to admit he lost."

2. To Joe Biden, "Should voters have any cause for concern related to your age and physical health. (Biden will have some canned line ready for this but it's a valid question. I'd like both of them to have to answer it.)

3. To Joe Biden, "Tell the American people why withdrawing from Afghanistan benefitted them."

I could do an hour on this. Joe only needs to do a minute and a half.

4. To Donald Trump. "You are awfully fond of Vladimir Putin,  the House of Saud, Xi Jinping and Kim Jung Un. Do you believe it is important for America to promote democracy abroad?"

5. To Joe Biden. "Do you regret any of  the policy choices you made that led to the high inflation we experienced in 2022 and 2023?"

6. To Donald Trump, "One third of American women now live in states with total or near-total bans on abortion. This is because three of your appointees voted to overturn Roe vs. Wade. Do you think that was good for America?"

7. For both of them. "Why do you think tariffs on imports are a good idea? Why do both of you think that your tariffs work but the other guy's don't?

I'd also like to see them have to answer some of the questions for the naturalized citizenship test, but that's a bit too much to ask for.

III. The Response.

Hopefully Biden has a good night like he did on the State of the Union. Hopefully he avoids losing his cool at the loser eight feet away from him. Hopefully he smiles and looks up beat. Hopefully the American people remember how crazy and unpleasant Donald Trump is.

But both sides will declare victory. That's how they do. And if the polls are bad for Trump, he'll roll out his VP announcement to change the subject. 

 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

Debatable, Barely

 I. Analysis.

The President is an ignorant, racist, deadbeat. These traits were on full display last night. He did absolutely nothing to persuade anyone that he has matured in office or that he is capable of being civil. 

Vice-President Biden was slightly overwhelmed by the reality of sharing a stage with such a rude, vituperative person for the first 15 or 20 minutes. He didn't have a great night, but he spoke cogently and avoided any terrible gaffes or unforced errors that will sting.

Biden went in with a substantial lead and he came out of it with what is likely to be a slightly larger lead in the days ahead. The instant polls indicate that he won the debate and even some of Trump's media talking heads, like Rick Santorum and Chris Christie, acknowledged that Trump hurt his own cause.

Presidential debates are usually remembered for moment and I think there are three that will be the focus of conversation this week.

1. Donald Trump refused to renounce white supremacists. He started to, but either got distracted or lost his nerve, and wound up giving a rallying cry to an obnoxious gang of racist louts. So far today his team is trying to spin this, but he has not rushed out to clarify or change the impression he made.  

2. Joe Biden invoked the military service of his deceased son Beau.  The President responded by taunting him with comments about the substance abuse issues of Biden's surviving son. Imagine responding to someone bragging about his dead son who won the Bronze Star by bringing up the fact that that person's other son had a drug problem. It is unfathomable.

3. Biden called the President of the United States a clown. He also told him "Shut up, man." These moments struck me as appropriate responses to Trump's rudeness, but I don't doubt that there are some voters who were turned off by that. Of course, people who care about decorum are unlikely to be voting for Trump, unless they are full of shit about why they are voting for that clown.

Oh and Chris Wallace is catching hell for losing control of the ship last night. He did start poorly but I think he reacted well, under the circumstances. He wasn't great, but I don't think anyone else would have done much better. 

II. A Little Bit of News.

It was easy to miss but there were at least 2 news worthy items in the ether of last night's circus.

First, President Donald Trump appeared to suggest that he is open to having the vote on Judge Coney-Barrett's nomination after the election.  He said there was "plenty of time" to do it after the election. I think that means the Republicans have read the polling on this point and are having some doubts about the wisdom of cramming this through. (I still think they will, but it was an interesting comment. I also think they will hold the vote no matter what the outcome of the election is.)

Secondly, Biden seemed to say that the Private Option of his healthcare plan would only be available to people eligible for Medicaid. I hope that reporters ask him to clarify that, but the news will probably focus on other things for the next few days. 

III. Early Signs of Movement.

I don't put a lot of stock in instant polls. The one done by CBS had Biden winning 48 percent to 41 percent. That mirrors almost perfectly the pre-debate polling average. The CNN poll had Biden winning 60 percent to 28 percent.  But only 25% of respondents were Republican, so that's probably a bad sample.

But there is one data point that has to encourage the Biden campaign this morning.  The betting markets have moved, noticeably toward Biden over night. On Predictit.com, both North Carolina and Florida have flipped from Trump to Biden. (By small margins, it must be said.)  States like Ohio and Georgia have also moved toward the Democrats. Biden's chances of winning the election have gone up by about a nickel.

IV. What Happens Next.

One of the most striking impressions last night was that Donald Trump knows that he is losing this race. I assumed that he knew that but it was really evident during the portion of the debate on election security. Trump needs to change minds. Last night was his best chance to do so, but he could not help himself. He is a rude, obnoxious jerk. That works very well with 40% of the country. That's not enough to win.

The next event is the Vice-Presidential debate. This is usually a snooze fest and I think this year will not be an exception to that. Kamala Harris had some good moments in the early primary debates but she is less deft at counter-punching.  

Mike Pence did well against Tim Kaine and I think he will hold his own against Senator Harris. The secret to his success is that he is the ability to lie with great confidence. If he gets asked to defend something absurd that Donald Trump believes, he will just start with "Of course the President does not believe that. The President is an honest, decent man.....etc, etc." The lies do not stop.

The contrast from last night will be telling. Pence might be able to make some coherent arguments that will make some voters say, "See, they're not so bad if you ignore the crazy pants way the Boss talks." But I don't think the needle will move much after a Veep debate.

The next presidential debate is a town hall forum. I think both candidates will do better in that setting. Biden is a natural retail politician and he will look more comfortable addressing regular voters than President Trump. But I also think Trump will benefit from the change in format. Trump knows he can be rude to Biden. His people expect it. He also knows he can be rude to the moderator. That's all in the game. But he has to hold back a little bit when regular old voters ask him a question. I wish the voters had a chance to ask follow-ups in this forum. That tripped up Trump in his last ABC town hall. But they usually do not allow such questions at the Town Hall debate, so we may not get to see how he does when someone tries to hold him to answering the question. 

Fun fact-the next debate will be moderated by Steve Scully, the incredibly patient and poker-faced C-SPAN host who has to listen to all those crazy morning callers. Good practice for listening to Trump's tantrums.

As I write this, the President has just appeared on the White House lawn to try to undo the damage of his Proud Boys answer last night.  His words were less than convincing but the important thing is that he seems to understand that he had a bad night and had to try to put this fire out.

He will probably be more sedate at the next debate. It would be hard not to. But by the third debate his polling situation might be so dire that he comes completely unhinged.

Debate Eve (The Road to 270, Take 11)

  I.  The Horse Race.

I write one day early tonight, because tomorrow is the first debate between President Trump and I will of course be watching that tomorrow night.

Stop me if you've heard this before, but we have just had another week of stable polling. Joe Biden leads the RCP average by 6.8 points, up slightly from last week and back to the exact mark he had two weeks ago. Biden leads the 538.com average by 6.9 points, the same margin as last week. 

State level polling has mostly been stable too, although Biden got a great Pennsylvania poll tonight that showed him up nine.  He's also had some good Ohio numbers, which make that state a true toss up with five weeks to go. 

II.  Debate Prep.

The first general election debate usually goes poorly for the incumbent. After four years of being the most important man in the world, it can be a bit unnerving to have to treat someone like an equal for 90 minutes.  Even Ronald Reagan lost his first debate with Mondale, not that it mattered in the end.

The importance of debates tend to be over-stated. Nearly everyone has an opinion of Donald Trump and it is unlikely to change tomorrow night. But I think Joe Biden has at least some hope of picking up some voters who may have yet to commit to voting for him. The incumbent and no small portion of the media have fed the idea that he is too old and more than a little soft in the head. He also had some bad performances in the early debates with a crowded state taking aim at him as the front-runner. Biden can dispel a lot of those thoughts with a strong performance.

The most encouraging sign for Biden is how well he did in the only one on one debate with Bernie Sanders back in March. He was sharp and focused, and a little bit ebullient because he knew he was likely to be the nominee. I hope he projects a similar confidence tomorrow in Cleveland.

The first debate is going to be moderated by Chris Wallace. He is an interesting choice. The Trump people obviously assume he spends his days working in the Fox News Bubble and he has to placate that audience. I'm a little surprised that Biden didn't fight for a non Fox host but he obviously felt okay about it. (Wallace has given Trump some difficult questions when interviewing him.)

Wallace announced the six debate topics early this week.  Some of them are obvious but see if you can spot the Fox influence on a couple of these:

1. The Trump and Biden Records. This is very vague. I guess Wallace is going to let the candidates attack each other right off the bat. That is understandable and will make for compelling television.

2. The Supreme Court. Here is where Trump is going to set the chutzpah record when he tried to paint Joe Biden as anti-Catholic zealot. The thing to watch for is Biden's line of attack. He should focus on the fact that Trump is trying to overturn the Affordable Care Act and he intends to use Coney-Barrett to do just that.

3. COVID-19.  Trump will lie to you during this segment. Joe Biden will not.

4. The Economy. Trump will lie about how great the economy was before COVID. Biden will argue that he inherited a strong economy from his predecessors. I doubt many minds will be changed here, but I do hope Biden pins the recession on Trump.

5. Race And Violence in Our Cities. Okay-there's the Fox whistle. Trump will blame Biden for the riots, Biden will blame Trump for his lawlessness.  If the candidates feel listless at the start of this segment, they will get over that quick.

6. The Integrity of the Election. One guy will scare you, the other guy will tell you to vote.  Vote for that one.

But there's more....................

Yesterday the New York Times published in excruciating detail the fact that Donald Trump is a dead beat citizen. This news came out after the debate subjects had been set, but I'm sure Biden will hammer on them in every segment if he can. Trump will mumble something about fake news every time it gets mentioned.

If you're reading this blog, and God love you for doing so, you already know the details, so I won't bore you. But one fact is really hanging with me. Donald Trump chose to pay $750 in 2016 and 2017. He could have paid zero dollars, but he was obviously told that it would look bad. So they talked him into making a nominal payment. How they arrived at $750 is between him and his accountant. But it's kind of amazing to think that he could have saved himself a LOT of trouble by stroking a check for something like $26,000 or any amount that is substantially more than what the average tax payer pays in federal income taxes. A penny saved is a penny earned, I guess.

I also think this a lot more will come from this reporting. The first report was thorough and detailed but there are a lot of layers to the tax code and there will be a lot of eyes following the information as it comes out over the next week or two.

The most damning parts are that he apparently paid obscene amounts of his money to Ivanka and characterized them as "consulting fees" to save a few bucks on payroll taxes. The other is that he apparently took a $79 million tax credit under the 2009 economic recovery act. (Thanks Obama!)

But for now-the most memorable fact is this: the President of the United States paid $750 a year for his two tax returns that he filed from the White House. Fuck that guy.

III.  The Forecasts.

Time is on Joe Biden's side. Every week that he maintains his lead, his chances of winning go up. There is still time for things to change, but it may take something dramatic for Trump to catch up and make this race competitive down the stretch. (I will not point out that by this time tomorrow we will know for sure whether Wiki Leaks has any dirt on Joe Biden. So far, so good on that front.)

That said, there wasn't a lot of movement this week. The Economist remains most bullish on Biden's chance of winning, but 538 is closing that gap. In fact, 538 now projects Biden to win Ohio 51% of the time, so they technically forecast him to win by a bigger margin than the Economist.  But Nate Silver and the Economist's nerd continue to snip at each other on Twitter, which is kind of sad.

As for me, I'm moving Biden up from 84% to 86%.  I think the Trump tax story will sting. No one likes to be a sucker and now the world knows, definitively, that that is how Trump feels about the average American tax payer. At the risk of repeating myself, fuck that guy.

IV. Taxonomy, Again.

For the past week I have been focusing on Ohio. My theory is that as long as Ohio is close, than Biden probably wins. Trump needs Ohio, Biden does not. In 2016, Trump swung that state eleven points to the right, from a three point Obama win to an eight point Hillary Clinton loss.

Ohio has a lot of the voters that swung from Obama to Trump and a lot of Obama voters who stayed home last time. All week I kept an eye on Nate's projected finish for Ohio and watched Biden's numbers climb from down to two to up by a fraction of a point. (Currently just 0.2%, so I'll be watching it for another week, at least.)

A reminder of my taxonomy of states.  Nothing here has changed from last week:

A. It will seem close if he doesn't win Florida.  He probably only gets to 290 maximum without Florida.

B. It will seem comfortable if he wins NC and FL That probably gets him to 334 electoral votes. Getting over 350 will look like a nice win, especially if he can win a state like Georgia, which Obama never carried and which ought to be trending blue over time.

C. It will seem like a blowout if he adds Iowa and Ohio.  This means he recreated the 2008 coalition, with GA subbing in for Indiana.

D. The cherry on top would be Texas.  This probably only happens if Trump craters in some way, but the psychological value of flipping Texas will be enormous.

The Ninth Debate.

The ninth debate of the Democratic party was held in Las Vegas last night. It was much more lively and eventful than the prior eight, because five of the candidates had a common target-the short fellow down at the end of the line.  They did not shirk from their mission to destroy him and they largely succeeded. Quick impressions:

I. Helped Their Cause.

1. Elizabeth Warren.  Her best debate. All those committee sessions where she eviscerates banking execs were good preparation for getting Bloomberg on the hook and reeling him in. The stuff on the non-disclosure agreements was devastating.  He now has two choices-let those women out of their non-disclosure agreements or give up on being the Democratic nominee.  This is probably a false choice because I suspect the contents of those non-disclosure agreements would also foreclose him from being the nominee.  

Warren also got in good digs at other candidates, and deftly got in a moment of diplomacy when Pete when after Klobuchar.  If there are any soft Bernie supporters, they are probably giving Warren a second look.  Grade: A.

2. Joe Biden.  His best debate so far. He obviously knows that he's now a long shot and he was able to make his strongest points pretty effectively. He also stayed around to do post-debate interviews, something that he should have done even when he was a front-runner.  Most of all he benefits by the attacks on Bloomberg.  If Bloomberg goes down in the polls, Biden should be the beneficiary.  Grade: B+.

II.  Neither Helped Nor Hurt.

3. Pete Buttigieg.  He usually does well in these debates and he didn't have any terrible moments last night. But he spent most of his time going after Klobuchar, who isn't a front-runner. I think his campaign peaked in Iowa but if Bloomberg and Biden both flounder, he can stay around and gather some delegates.  It's not like he has anything better to do with his time.  Grade: B.

4.  Amy Klobuchar.  For the first time, she was a target of significant incoming fire. That's what happens when you exceed the polls a couple times. She was prepared for the question about the Mexican president, of course but I don't think she came across as warm and prepared as she did at the New Hampshire debate.  She regressed to the mean, which is understandable. But she needs to finish February strong or she will not be around much beyond Super Tuesday.  Grade: B.

III.  Hurt His Case.

5. Bernie Sanders.  The rest of this field has been hesitant to really go after Bernie becuase they all worry about alienating his base. But he's the front-runner now and he took at least some hits last night. He made his same ponderous "policy" points as he always does but he looked petty when responding to Bloomberg's attacks about being a millionaire with three homes by pretending this was a common thing in Vermont. 

He is likely to end the primaries with a plurality of delegates. Last nigth he made the statement that the candidate who should gets the most votes should be the nominee.  That sounds like a prety straight-forward and even obvious principle....if you forget 2016.

The last Democratic primary was held on June14th, 2016.  When it was over, Hillary Clinton had 3.7 million more votes than Bernie Sanders. She had won 54 percent of the pledged delegates. She won, fair and square.  But it took Bernie over a month to endorse her and he talked openly about trying to persuade Super Delegates to change their votes.  Now that the math is shaping up the other way, he has had a convenient change of principles.

This will hurt him, at some point. Unless of course, he runs away with the primaries and wins an outright majority of delegates. Given how fractured and mediocre his opponents looked last night, he should think this is a reasonable goal. Grade: C+.

IV.  A Monkey Trying to Fuck a Football Bat.

6. Michael Bloomberg.  Money can not buy you a personality and it can not buy a thick skin. Bloomberg was unprepared, ill-tempered and out of his league.  He pays his people a lot of money and somehow they convinced him that "The NDAs were consensual" is a sufficient defense to why he is keeping some untold number of actions for workplace harassment and discrimination secret.

There is another debate next week.  If he is really serious about being the nominee he needs to spend the whole week preparing for it, including interviews with some unfriendly outlets.  Two performances like this in a row, and he might as well turn off the cash spigots. 

I don't think Bloomberg will be the nominee. The question becomes, will he really spend a billion dollars supporting any of the people who unmaked him on that stage last night?  I don't see him doing it for Bernie or Warren. But maybe he's a bigger man than he showed last night.

Grade: F.

Second General Election Forecast: Hillary 49, Trump 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2 (Electoral College 340-198)

I published my first general election forecast on July 10th. I thought I would be publishing a new forecast every two weeks or so.  But it's been over 2 months and I haven't updated it before now.  Simply put, I didn't think the election had changed much.  Of course the polls went up and down a few points, but I stuck with my fundamental premise that this election is likely to be similar to 2012. Trump has polled better than expected over the past few weeks and the race is definitely closer than I expected it to be.  It's time to update the projection accordingly.

Today seemed the perfect day for an updated forecast.  The first debate is tonight and we will know a lot more about this election 10 hours from now.  Donald Trump has not done a one-on-one debate yet and I'm not sure how the format will suit his temperament.  But he is first and foremost a TV star and I don't expect any really dramatic outbursts or stunts. He will be his usual annoying, stupid, childish self. But he won't call her a vulgar name or set the podium on fire.

Hillary will be extremely well-prepared and she will hit him on a variety of predictable fronts: his horrible record of offensive comments about women, his racist immigration policies and his penchant for ignoring the constitutional limits of federal authority.  I think that Trump's main counter-attacks will focus on Hillary being implicitly corrupt because she is an insider and that she represents a continuation of Obama's foreign policies, which he will call weak.  (We will hear that word out of Trump a lot.  Hillary/Obama = weak, Trump = strong and smart.)

Presidential debates are more about impressions than fine points of policy.  In 2000 Gore dusted W. on substance, but his bracing exasperation with the stupidity of his opponent came off as arrogant.  Al Gore over-corrected in the next two debates and came across as inauthentic.  Enough people put faith in the idea that a governor of Texas and son of a likable president couldn't really be that dumb while it was easy to believe that a politician could be phony.  Sixteen years later, we are still paying for that price.

There will be some temptation for Hillary to bait Trump into a fight. It might happen organically, and that will be good for her.  But I don't think she should focus on provoking that responses.  She needs to make the case for herself and to point out the shallow stupidity of his ideas. Trump will want to lash out at her in personal terms, but he has to be careful with that.  He can drop a "Crooked Hillary" or two, but he could really hurt himself by bringing up Monica Lewinsky or other skeletons of  the right wing nutosphere.   I think he will avoid any of the nightmare scenarios that have probably kept Kelly Anne Conway up at night.

Why I'm confident.

Trump's relatively strong polling has endured for several weeks now.  He definitely walks on to that stage tonight believing that he will win on November 8th.  There's plenty of empirical data to support the idea that he might.  But the choice between two viable candidates will be very clear tonight. And I still believe that she will win this race.

I think the polling has been distorted, for lack of a better word, by Gary Johnson.  After tonight people who don't want to vote Hillary will begin to admit that Trump is simply unacceptable and their own personal grievances against what Clinton represents do not justify taking a chance on four years of Trump. Nate Silver's model says that if the election were held today, Gary Johnson would get 8.1% of the vote. His forecasts of November 8th have that number receding to 6 or 7%.  I think it will recede more than that.  I'm putting his number at 4%.

Jill Stein will benefit from a bunch of people too young to remember 2000 and too stupid to accept the idea that one candidate thinks global warming is a hoax and that if that candidate wins he will appoint the next head of the EPA. I hope that number falls below one percent but I think it will be closer to 2 percent.


Specific Changes.

I am making three Electoral College changes from my first forecast.  I do not think Hillary will pick off Nebraska's second congressional district.  And I think she will lose Iowa.  I also think Trump will pick of Maine's second congressional district, which is overwhelmingly white and rural. That is a gain of eight electoral votes from my first forecast.

But I want to acknowledge that this race could become very, very close.  If the election were held today, Trump would do better than Romney.  He would win Ohio and Nevada and if he also won Florida, it would put the electoral college at Hillary 279, Trump 259.  That's really damn close.

But the election is not today and I still think we will move back towards our 2008 and 2012 political maps. Trump deserves credit for keeping overwhelming percentages of his party in the fold. (Republicans in turn deserve a lot of shame for that very same fact.)  A return toward the prevailing political coalitions favors Hillary, on balance. I think she will do better on November 8th than she is doing on September 26th.

If Things Get Worse.
North Carolina is a a pure toss-up, just as it was 4 years ago.  I think the bathroom bill  has made the state a national joke and that will motivate enough progressives to show up in big numbers but the result will be very close.  Trump also could win Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Florida.  The only good  news is that he probably has to win all of them to take the White House.

Trump's best route to 270 looks like this:

1. Defend North Carolina to retain all 206 of Romney's electoral votes.
2. Pick up Maine's 2nd congressional district. (207)
3. Add six for Iowa (213)
4. Add 18 from Ohio (231)
5. Add 4 from New Hampshire (235)
6. Add six from Nevada (241)
7. Add 29 from Florida (270)

The path is there.  Hillary's job tonight is to prove to everyone why the destination is so dangerous. With any luck, Donald will do that for her.