VP Debate Night, 2024

 I. The State of the Race.

I have not had a reason to update my map since late July. For all the daily weirdness of the Trump campaign, the race has been pretty stable. Kamala Harris is a slight favorite. She will probably win the popular vote but there are enough very close states to keep the winner uncertain.

The simple version of the race is this. Harris is likely to win states worth 226 electoral votes. She has to win 44 more votes among the seven swing states. At the moment, I classify them this way:

Leaning Harris: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and (just slightly) Pennsylvania.  

True Toss-ups: North Carolina and Georgia.

Leaning Trump: Arizona

So Harris probably has just enough votes to win the election as it is polling now. There are five weeks to go. While there will certainly be unexpected news, there aren't many big events left on the calendar. Which leads us to tonight.

II. The Vice-Presidential Debate.

The VP debates are almost never consequential. The most memorable moment in their history was when Lloyd Bentsen insulted Dan Quayle for presuming to compare himself to John F. Kennedy. Bush-Quayle crushed Dukakis-Bentsen that November.

Tim Walz has been a great candidate so far. His favorable numbers are by far the best of all four candidates and he hasn't committed any gaffes. No dirt has come to light and his super power of normalcy has been a refreshing change of pace.  

J.D. Vance has brought absolutely nothing to the Trump team. He has said a lot of dumb things and never, ever looks comfortable on the campaign trail. People do not like him and they are right to not like him.

But the previous paragraphs only set the expectatio0ns for tonight. Vance is a pretty smooth speaker when he has a script and he had the oddly misplaced confidence of a much smarter man. He could do well tonight. Well enough to exceed expectations at least. And in a pinch, he is not afraid to lie.

III. The Questions That Should Be Asked.

1. To Tim Walz, "Vice-President Harris and you have derided Trump's plan to place a tariff on all imported goods. But Joe Biden has kept many Trump-era tariffs in place. What metrics would you use to determine the difference between good and bad tariffs?"

2. To J.D. Vance:  "After spreading the false rumor that immigrants from Haiti in Springfield, Ohio were eating pets, you said  that you felt the need  "to create stories so that the media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people." How should voters know when you are telling the truth and when you are making stuff up?

3. To Tim Walz. "Does the United States of America admit too many, too few or just the right number of legal immigrants to this country?  What criteria would you use to determine what that number should be?"

4. To J.D. Vance: "If you become president in the next four years, would you sign a national ban on abortion and if so, what would be the parameters of that ban as to length of pregnancy and exceptions for medical emergencies."

5. To Tim Walz, "Are there any specific programs or areas of the military budget that you believe should be reduced or eliminated?

6. To JD Vance, "Was the 2020 presidential election free and fair and who was the lawful winner of that election?"

7. For both candidates, "What benefits does the United States get from its relationship with Israel and are there any changes that you would make to how the United States provides aid to Israel?"

With five weeks to go the election is probably about a 60/40 tilt in favor of Kamala Harris. Tonight probably won't change that dynamic. I don't think it will much change how people feel about Tim Walz. But J.D. Vance could do a lot of good for himself by just being normal. I'm not sure he has it in him.

How I See It, How Trump Should See It.

 Well, it has been a week. Six days ago, Kamala Harris dominated her first (and probably only) debate with Donald Trump. She was great on a lot of levels but my favorite part of her performance was how she reminded people just how tiring Donald Trump's whole shtick is. She baited him repeatedly and he walked into it every single time.  Because he's a baby. 

Since then he has spent his time insisting that he won the debate, doubling down on racist lies about Haitian refugees eating pets and refusing to do a second debate. (Probably his best decision in quite awhile.)

The post-debate polls have been generally good for Harris. As for my official prediction, I'm sticking with Harris 292, Trump 246. I think the popular vote result will be similar to 2020 and there will not be many changes in the electoral college either.

I. How I See It.

A. Swing Stones Leaning Blue

I am reasonably confident that Kamala Harris will win Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. I also think she is more likely than not to win Pennsylvania. These states will get her over the finish line with 276 votes.

B. True Toss-ups

The polls in Arizona, Georgia and Arizona have been close. I can imagine any of these states going either way. If Trump sweeps them, the election will be close and he will try like hell to steal it. Every state that Harris wins here will make it harder for Trump to do another insurrection. (It's so sad that we have to think this way, but we do.)

II. How Trump Should See It.

In my previous post, I divided the swing states into three northern states and four "southern." That was because Harris needs to sweep the three northern states (WI, MI, PA) to get to exactly 270 votes and win the election.  For any northern state that she loses, she has to make up the equivalent number in the four southern states.

For Trump the math and the geography work a little differently.  Trump should win at least 219 electoral votes. To get to 270, he needs 51 more.  The easiest path there is to sweep Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. So for today's purposes, we'll call those three states The Eastern Swing States. 

For ever electoral vote Trump loses in the east, he has to make up for them in the four "western" states.

Here are the combinations that put Trump in the White House. Because GA and NC are both worth exactly 16 votes, they are interchangeable in these scenarios.

IIII. How Forecasters And Markets See It.

I think Harris is about a two to one favorite now. Let's call it 66% chance of her winning. Harris has run a very good campaign and Trump continues to step on rakes. Harris has a fundraising advantage and unlike last time the Democrats will be out knocking on doors this fall. 

Trump is going to lose the popular vote but he can still win enough swing states to get to 270. His biggest problem right now is that a lot more voters have made up their mind against voting for him than have made up their mind against voting for his opponent.

Almost all of the forecasters like Harris better today than the did a week ago.  Even Nate Silver has her chances up by a full five percent from right before the debate.

Nate Silver and his former baby, 538.com  are still 17 points apart because they moved in the same direction this week.  But like Harris about five percent more than they did before the debate.

As for betting markets, Predictit.com favors Harris 57 to 47 and Poly Market has the race must closer with Harris leading 50% to 48%.

Harris could not have asked for a better week. She continues to do well, the public is warming to her and her opponent continues to be a decrepit whiner.  

Seven weeks to go, citiens.

A Framework for the 2024 Presidential Election

Don't call it a Morning Line. It is too early for that. But Joe Biden has been president for six full months. That is 1/8th of his term. That is 1/4 of the portion of his term before Republicans start declaring their intention to replace him and become the 47th President of the United States. 

And we have learned a few things about him and the state of politics in the Republican party to make some observations about what is likely to happen between now and three years from this month, when the parties are holding their conventions. 

This is a big-picture conceptualization of how 2024 might go. I want to lay down a few assumptions here and then get into some hypotheticals. A lot will change between now and then, but I think it's helpful to discuss a few fundamentals about the election at this stage. The short version is that I think the next election will feature the same candidates as last time and will have a similar result.  The long version follows below. 

 I. Joe Biden is very likely to be the Democratic nominee. 

Joe Biden will be in his 80s when his first term ends. A lot of people seem to think that he will not run for a second term. I find that highly unlikely, for the following reasons. 

A. Presidents like being president. You know who was the last president to be elected and then voluntarily decide not to run for a 2nd term? James K. Polk in 1848. Anyone ambitious and confident enough to run for president has a pretty solid ego. Winning only reinforces that instinct. And presidents are surrounded by people who tell them they are doing a great job. Every single one of them believes it. There is no reason to think Joe Biden will be the exception. He's going to run because the alternative is unthinkable. For God's sake Polk died three months after his term ended. Retirement is no substitute for being the President. 

B. Incumbency Helps. Being president helps with everything from fundraising to setting the narrative. There is no campaign plane as impressive as Air Force One and no rolodex like the one that would be on the Resolute Desk if people still used Rolodexes. One of the reasons the 2020 election was closer than the polls suggested it would be is that some unexpected voter blocks gave Trump the benefit of the doubt. This happens to just about every president. The thinking is that if we've survived one term with any given fella, we can probably survive two.  A distressing number of people felt that way about the previous president, no matter how terrible he was. 

Since World War 2, sitting presidents have won eight times and lost only four times. One of those four was Gerry Ford, who was appointed to the Vice-Presidency rather than elected. The presidents who lost a second term are remembered as some of the worst presidents we ever had. If Biden has any success at all, the institutional party will want to run him again and the causal voter will be inclined to choose him. 

C. He Probably Won't Face a Primary Challenger. Biden has managed to keep his centrist identity but has achieved a lot of progressive policy goals. The expanded income tax credit alone will probably be enough to make most of the left wing stay on the bench. Bernie Sanders is too old to run for a first term. AOC is too young. Any other plausible candidate knows that starting a serious campaign against an incumbent president is political suicide. They will sit this out. 

D. He is a better political option than Kamala Harris. I have talked to people who think that Biden is a caretaker president. Because of his age and the changing demographics of his party, he will step aside after one term and endorse his vice-president. But I don't see it happening. No one in the party will accept that endorsement as a coronation, which means a contested primary. That's a huge distraction and squanders the advantages of being the incumbent party. 

Vice-President Harris has not had a breakout moment to claim the spotlight. She is being a good and faithful Vice-President. She knows that she will be the heavy favorite for the nomination in 2028 and she can afford to be patient at her age. To be blunt about it-Donald Trump would much rather run against Kamala Harris than Joe Biden. She is not a great or even natural politician. She is serving her president well and that will probably be rewarded down the line. But it's not enough to jump the queue.

II. Donald Trump is EXTREMELY likely to be the Republican nominee. 

Donald Trump has spent the last six months perseverating of the result of the last election. He is actively involved with defending the rioters who tried to prevent the peaceful transition of power in our democracy. And he remains overwhelmingly the most popular figure in the Republican party. 

He is almost certain to be the Republican nominee, for the following reasons. 

 A. He's got nothing better to do. The first rule of thinking about Trump is to remember that it IS about Trump. And the common mistake that people make when thinking about presidential candidates is to pretend they are normal people. None of them are. They want power and glory in ways that very few people can relate to. 

A lot of people thought the loss of an election would cow Trump into a life away from the spotlight. Such people do not understand the brain of a true narcissist. Trump is incapable of believing he lost anything fair and square, so his brain has erected the defense mechanism needed to convince himself that he was robbed. This aggrieved act is based on certifiable nonsense and bullshit. But it is enough to keep his ego afloat., in part because the entire Republican apparatus in the media and in Congress has lined up behind his delusions.    

He is going to run because he loves attention and the only thing that can match the attention of running for president is being president. Donald Trump will happily run in a primary. He will have his center modicum for all the debates. All of the news outlets will go back to taking him seriously and give him the coverage he needs. Twitter and Facebook might even let him have his accounts back. 

B. He has cleared the field by emasculating all his rivals. 

For five years, the most important endorsement in Republican politics has been Donald J. Trump. The vast majority of Republican office holders have lived in fear of Trump turning on them. He has turned his back on anyone who does not share his belief that the last election was stolen. Even Mike Pence, as loyal a lap-dog #2 as the world have ever seen, is now persona non grata in Trumpland. The Rubios and Cruzes of the world have forfeit any attempt to credibly run against Trump in a primary. Nikki Haley, among others, has said she won't even run if Trump runs.

Of course, he will have primary opponents. There will be a nominal Never Trump candidate-Larry Hogan of Maryland will probably run. Maybe Liz Cheney will try to settle some scores if she loses next year's Republican primary for her House seat. And there will be a couple plausible candidates who at least put a toe in the water in the hopes that Trump doesn't run. Ted Cruz is so damn ambitious that he might just sign up for another round of humiliation. Like Trump, he has nothing better to do with the next 3 years of his life. But no one can beat Donald Trump in a Republican presidential primary. Off the top of my head, this is what the 2024 Iowa Cacuses might look like. Trump 53%, Cruz 19%, Hogan 14%, Cheney 4%. Rubio and Haley and a few other dumb-dumbs can fight for the scraps. If Donald Trump runs for the nomination, and doesn't die in the first half of 2024, he will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. 

C. Beating Donald Trump in a Republican Primary is a Booby Prize.

Let's pretend that Donald Trump is somehow chastened by his loss to Joe Biden. That he has some scintilla of reluctance to run again. Maybe he dawdles for another year-never declaring his candidacy and letting some others explore their options in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Maybe he even in fit of pique says that he will not run or may not run.

So the field fills up. The Hogans and Cruz' and maybe a Kasich or two decide to run. The filed takes shape. Polls start to be taken and DeSantis or Cruz looks strong.  Trump has some personal distractions-an indictment or a divorce or a fun new project somewhere. All of a sudden, people are talking about DeSantis as the better candidate.  So Trump waits and waits. The first debate happens and he's not on stage. That will be enough to snap him back into it.

He can't resist the attentions. He can't let the Republican party love someone else they way they once loved him.  So he declares after all. Maybe right before Iowa. By then a lot of talent has signed up in other camps. Cruz and DeSantis are both pros-they raise a lot of money.  Somehow, some way, they deprive Trump of a majority of delegates and agree to run together in order to lock down the nomination.

How do you think Trump reacts to that? Graciously?  Please. He will whine and bitch like the whiny bitch that always has been.  He may or may not run third party but he definitely spends the summer and fall shitting on the people who beat him. The people who conspired against him. 

Maybe he runs third party and turns the legitimate nominee into Taft '12. Or maybe he just sits on the sidelines and his minions stay out of the rigged election, this time for good. 

Trump is going to be the Republican nominee because he is the only person that controls enough Republican voters to affect the general election outcome and enough spite to use them against the Republican party.  The party is his possession. 

Now that my assumptions are on the table, let's turn to some probabilities. 

III. Democratic Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Joe Biden Will Run for a 2nd Term	96%
Joe Biden will be Nominated again.	90%
Kamala Harris will be the Nominee	5%
Neither Biden nor Harris will be the nominee.	5%

    

Caveats & Context: 

Only a health problem will prevent Joe Biden from running. At his age, that is a non-negligible probability. But he is tall and trim and has no history of alcohol or tobacco use. The actuary charts like his chances of making it well beyond 2024 and even 2028.  But things happen. If Biden doesn't run, it could mean that Kamala Harris is the incumbent. At minimum, she will be the heavy favorite and presumptive heir.  

If Biden were to simply decline to run, than Harris would still be the favorite for the nomination. But she would face a competitive primary. Andrew Cuomo would run. Sherrod Brown could make a strong run. People will talk up AOC, but I think she's too smart to do that now. (She turns 35 in 2024.)

IV. Republican Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Donald Trump Will Run for a 2nd Term	95%
Donald Trump Will Be Nominated Again	94%
Ron DeSantis Will Be The Nominee	3%
Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the Nominee	3%

Caveats & Context:

Trump will run if he is physically capable. I know some people fantasize about him being prosecuted and incarcerated and therefor unable to run. But that is very unlikely. 

The Trump organization was recently indicted along with its Chief Financial Officer, Allen Weisselberg. Some have speculated that Wesselberg could flip on Trump and cooperate with the Feds. That certainly is possible. But even if that happened tomorrow, it would take time for Trump to be indicted. An indictment is not goin to prevent Donald Trump from running for president. It would just be a fundraising message for him.  And the sort of crimes that Trump would be accused of are not easy to prove. It would require a lengthy trial.  I do no think there is enough time for Trump to be indicted, tried, convicted and incarcerated before the Iowa caucus. It's just not going to happen.  (And for the record, I think it's unlikely he will ever be prosecuted for a crime. This one prediction, I will be quite happy to get wrong.)

If Trump doesn't run, Ron DeSantis is the obvious front-runner for the Republicans. He appeals to every large swatch of the party and he manages to sound Trumpian without being an obvious moron. He has the Yale/Harvard pedigree of Cruz and Hawley, but none of the childish need to impress the faculty lounge. Assuming he is re-elected in 2022, he would be the obvious Trump successor.

There is no obvious third choice for the Republican nomination. Pence probably alienated too much of the base by you know, believing in democracy for one day.  There will be plenty of runners, but I am inclined to believe that the nominee will be a white male. The only scenario where I see that not happening is some sort of crazy brokered convention where the grown-ups settle on Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. But the party of "Build that Wall!" chants is not going to fall in love with any brown candidates. That just will not happen.

So I think DeSantis is the obvious nominee if Trump doesn't run. The only way I do not see that happen is if something disastrous happens and he is not re-elected next year. Or maybe he wins but the election is close and that puts doubts in the minds of the party establishment. That could happen, so I leave room for the field. But just three percent.

V. General Election Probabilities.

General Election Probabilities	Probability
The Democrat Wins	60%
The Republican Wins	40%
Biden Beats Trump	51%
Trump Beats Biden	34%
Biden Beats DeSantis	8%
DeSantis Beats Biden	5%
Not-Biden beats Not-Trump	1.3%
Not Trump beats Not-Biden	0.7%

Caveats & Context:

Red states netted three electoral votes from the 2020 Census. If the 2024 election has the same exact result as 2020, the Democrats would win 303-235 instead of 306-232. But it's hard to come up with a scenario where these changes put either party over 270.  A lot of the changes cancel each other out.  (Montana's gain is West Virginia's loss, Oregon's gain is Illinoi's loss, etc.) 

The only changes among really competitive states are that MI and PA each lost one and NC gained one. 

Even starting with the dreadful 2016 result as a baseline, the Dems path remains unchanged. They start with 230 and need PA (19) Michigan (15) to get them to 264. They then need one more state to win- Wisconsin, Arizona or Georgia being most likely. 

I favor the Dems because incumbency is helpful and I think the Donald Trump shtick will have worn pretty thing on the average independent/moderate voter by the time that circus gets geared up again.

But nothing is in the bag.

Let's have some fun with specific head to head match-up.

VI. Head to Head Match-ups.

a. Biden vs. Trump. There is about an 85% of this being the match-up.

Biden's polling has been solid but not spectacular. The new wave of COVID cases is not helping, even though this wave is largely caused by people refusing to get vaccinated.  I am an optimistic person, so I think the vaccines will beat the new variants and by 2024 COVID-19 will be a marginal problem. But that's not guaranteed. Biden is also vulnerable if inflation stays high (most economists don't think it will), if the homicide rate climbs (it might) or if we enter 2024 in a recession. (Too soon to tell.)

That said, I favor Biden over Trump, comfortably. The result won't be radically different than 2020 but I think the margin will be a little wider as Biden benefits from being the incumbent and Trump's shtick wears thin on the marginal voters. 

Probability:  Biden wins 67% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-209.  He picks up NC but loses WI, in part because Trump has replaced Pence with Scott Walker.

b. Biden vs. DeSantis.  

This is an interesting possibility. DeSantis being the nominee means that he was re-elected governor of Florida in 2022 and he probably won by a clear margin.  That might make the Democrats skip Florida all together. So both parties would be free to spend a lot more money in the places that can actually decide the election. DeSantis will also have the advantage of not being in his eighties. 

This would be a very close election, assuming that Donald Trump is either dead or has given DeSantis his full-throated endorsement. 

Probability:  Biden wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 267-262. DeSantis claws back GA and AZ, but the northern wall holds for the Democrats. Trump begins saying "They should have nominated Ivanka."

c. Biden vs. Generic Republican.

Generic Republican might seem formidable now but any Republican who isn't Trump or DeSantis is probably a relative newcomer to the scene.  Cruz would get crushed. Rubio isn't up for it. The Haley or Tim Scott scenarios are far-fetched to me.

Probability:  Biden wins 60% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-219. North Carolina goes blue.

The Harris scenarios are hard to handicap. Her being the nominee either means that she is the president or that Joe Biden has decided not to run for a second term. For today's purposes, we will assume she is running as an incumbent, because I thin that is more likely than Biden deciding not to run.

d. Harris vs. Trump:

Kamala Harris ran a bad campaign in 2020. She raised a lot of money and didn't even make it to Iowa. Nothing about her performance as vice-president has particularly helped or hurt her chances. 

But I think Trump would, for the 2nd time, benefit from the sexism that exists among a frightening percentage of voters. And he will not be shy about using her racial identity against her either. He could over play that, but sadly, he seems to know how to play those games better than most. I fear this scenario.

Probability:  Trump wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Trump wins 291-247.  Trump reassembles his 2016 map, save Michigan. President Trump then announce plans to sell Detroit to Canada.

e. Harris vs. Desantis.

DeSantis on paper is a better candidate than Trump. But we don't yet know if he will motivate the casual Trump voter to turn out on election day. I am guessing he would get enough of them out to win, but this would also be a close race.

Probability:  DeSantis wins 58% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: DeSantis wins 312-226. DeSantis reconstitutes the Trump map and adds Nevada for good measure.

f. Harris vs. Generic Republican.

Well, a lot has to go wrong for this scenario to play out. But I think this means the GOP had to go with their 3rd choice, and that's not good.

Probability:  Harris wins 57% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Harris wins 292-246.

g.  The Field.

Something terrible will have to happen for the Democrats to nominate someone other than Biden or Harris. That sort of means that Biden dies in the next year or so and then Harris has such a bad run as president that some shit head like Andrew Cuomo comes in and beats her in a primary.  

This is too remote to think about now. So I won't put numbers on it yet.

 

A Fortnight's Sleep (The Road to 270, Take 14)

My first map of 2020.

Two weeks from tonight I will sit down at this desk and type out my final election prediction for 2020. Then I will go to bed and be hit with a wave of nervous anticipation that I have not felt since my last Santa Claus Christmas. 

For now, Joe Biden leads by nine or ten points. He has leads in the pivotal states and has a few routes to running up the score. Ohio and Georgia, two states that Biden does not need to win, are true coin-flips. 

There is only one debate remaining. Perhaps most importantly, President Trump seems to be incapable of changing his course. He lives in the Fox News Bubble and he seems determined to campaign there as well. The election is more likely to be ugly and scary than it is to be close.

But this project is a commitment, so I crunched the numbers again. There was some modest movement towards Donald Trump in some of the betting markets for individual states. But the polling data remains pretty stable. Biden's numbers improved slightly in Arizona  and North Carolina, but remained where they were last week in most other places.

 I.  The Taxonomy Down the Stretch.

Last week I introduced a new way of thinking about the election, dividing all of the remotely competitive states into six categories. I'll walk through each of those tiers here.  The chart this week includes changes from last week for the prediction market prices and the 538.com forecast. 

A. The Nightmare scenario: The States Biden Defends.

There is no sign that NH, MN or NV have become competitive in the polling data. Nate Silver has all three of these states trending towards Biden. It must be noted that the betting markets for these states have drifted slightly toward Trump.  I think that is mostly profit-taking. People sold their shares in the 80s to buy more competitive states in order to collect more on election night.  

B. The Tight Scenario: The Rust Belt Hillary Killer States.

Very little movement in these states. Trump got one good poll from a Republican pollster called Trafalgar that had him up by one.  The other polls this week had Biden winning by at least eight points.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska-2nd congressional district are basically unchanged from last week.

There was some Trump movement in the prediction markets here, but less pronounced than in the long-shot states.

C. The Good Scenario: Sun Belt States.

Here is a certified quirk of October. Florida's in-person early voting began today. About 50 of the 67 counties released data on the party affiliation of ballots returned. It was just about a draw, with the Republicans netting about 4K votes. That margin was more than made up for in today's vote by mail numbers. Most importantly, Miami-Dade did not release numbers by party affiliation but will do so tomorrow.  Today, the betting markets moved to Trump by about seven points, based on this data. But I expect we will see a correction tomorrow when the Miami numbers are released. 

Arizona and North Carolina have both trended towards Biden this week, but not dramatically.

I still like Biden to run the table up to this point. That would get him up to 334 Electoral Votes.

D. The Great Scenario: The Map Expands.

Georgia and Ohio remain true toss-ups. For most of the week Nate favored Biden slightly in GA and Trump slightly in OH. But neither is more than a 52/48 proposition. We are expecting a high-quality New York Times poll of Ohio tomorrow. I expect it will be very close, and that is consistent with my overall theme-if Ohio is close, Joe Biden is winning the election.

I am starting to think of Ohio and Iowa as a 7-10 split for Biden. He probably can't win both so he might as well focus on winning one of them. With two competitive senate races, Georgia is the logical place to put more resources. To be sporting, I'm moving Georgia into Biden's column tonight. But it is a true coin toss.

Trump remains a modest favorite in Iowa.

E. The Dream Scenario: A Blue Texas

Fun little data point here. In both the Economist and FiveThirtyEight models, the most common EV total for Joe Biden is 413.  That means running the table in all of the above states plus adding Texas.

But don't get carried away. It's "the mode" but it only happens 3.8% of the time. There are a lot of combinations in a race that has 56 jurisdictions A lot has to go right for Biden to get to this point. I think it's unlikely. 

This week, Texas moved slightly to the left in the models and slightly to the right on Predictit.com. The fundamentals are this-Trump is the favorite but Biden doesn't need to win there.

F. The Blow Out Scenario.

Biden has remote shots of winning Alaska, South Carolina and Montana.  You can probably add Kansas to that list, but none of these states will decide the election and the movement this week was modestly towards Donald Trump. 

All margins and prices are for Biden/Democrat. Changes from last week are shown in parenthesis.)

State	Elect Votes	2016 Margin	Predictit Price	538 Margin	538 %
New Hampshire	4	0.37%	77 (-3)	10.3 (+1)	87 (+3)
Nevada	6	2.42%	75 (-5)	7.1 (None)	88 (+1)
Minnesota	6	1.51%	75 (-5)	8.6 (+0.2)	92 (+1)
Michigan	16	-0.22	69 (-7)	8 (-3.9)	92 (None)
Pennsylvania	20	-0.72%	68 (-2)	6.1 (-0.4)	87 (None)
Wisconsin	10	-0.76%	68 (-5)	6.7 (+0.2)	87 (+2)
Nebraska-2	1	-2.00%	N/a	5.2 (+0.4)	79 (+3)
Florida	29	-1.19%	52 (-6)	3.2 (-0.6)	71 (None)
Arizona	11	-3.50%	57 (+3)	3.1 (+0.2)	69 (+2)
North Carolina	15	-3.66%	51 (-5)	2.6 (+0.5)	68 (+5)
Georgia	16	-5.10%	41 (-2)	-0.1 (+0.5)	50 (+4)
Ohio	18	-8.07%	37 (-5)	-0.1 (-0.6)	49(-4)
Iowa	6	-9.41%	35 (-6)	-1.2 (-0.3)	43 (-2)
Maine-2	1	-10.29%	N/a	0.4 (+1.1)	52 (+5)
Texas	38	-8.98%	27 (-3)	-2.6 (+0.6)	33 (+2)
Alaska	3	-14.73%	17 (-3)	-6.9 (-0.1)	22 (-1)
South Carolina	3	-14.27%	11 (-5)	-7.9 (-1.2)	11 (-5)
Montana	3	-20.23%	10 (-3)	-9.9 (+0.4)	11 (None)

II. The Forecasts.

1. FiveThirtyEight. Biden is at 88 percent, up slightly from 87 percent a week ago. 

2. The Economist. The most aggressive forecast in the field inches up again-moving Biden up to 92% from 91% a week ago. He seems to be determined to stay one step ahead of Nate Silver so he can yell "First!" when the networks call Florida or Pennsylvania on Election Night. His tally right now is Biden 350, Trump 188, which means that like me he moved Georgia into Biden's column this week. 

3. Sabato Crystal Ball. Biden 290, Trump 163, Toss-up 85. No changes from last week. 

4. 270toWin. Biden 290, Trump 163. Toss-up 85.  No changes from last week.

I think Sabato and 270 are both being too conservative with their toss-ups. Biden leads in FL and NC. Trump leads in IA. OH and GA are the only true toss-ups at the moment.

5. JHK Forecasts. Biden 88.3%, up slightly from 87.7%  They have Biden slightly favored in Georgia and Iowa with Ohio as close to a dead-heat as possible. They give Trump the edge there, 50.1% to 49.9%. That makes 357 Biden, 181 Trump. 

They are a little bullish on Biden in Texas, with him winning there 38.8% of the time. 

6. Plural Vote. Biden has a 73.1% chance of of winning, down slightly from 74% last week.

But they have Biden 332, Trump 206, which is up from 323 to 215 last week.  And they are even more bullish on Texas, giving Biden a 44% chance of winning there.

Right now this forecast feels the shakiest. They give Biden the lowest chance of winning the election but the best chance of achieving a blowout. 

7. Betting Markets. Predictit.com gives Biden 61.9%, up slightly from last week's 61.1%. That is consistent with other betting markets, that give Biden a slightly better than 3 to 2 chance of winning.

There was state-level movement toward Trump this week but that hasn't moved the big board. It also didn't change any states in their overall forecast, which remains Biden 334, Trump 204.

8. Spider Stumbled.

I remain confident but the state-level betting markets have me slightly more concerned than I was the last two weeks. I will move Biden from 91% down to 89%.  He was at 91% two weeks in a row.

He didn't have a bad polling week, but he did have a stable polling week, after several consecutive weeks of gains. 

But I do move Georgia into his column-by an inch.  That leaves my official prediction at Biden 351, Trump 187. 

And as I started last week, I will take a crack at the popular vote totals again. 

Biden 52.36%  (-0.19)

Trump 45.02%  (+0.17)

Jorgenson (Libertarian) 1.76%  (+0.1)

Hawkins (Green Party) 0.65%

Others: 0.2%  (+0.1)

Looking at all of the date-polls, forecasts, betting markets, there is simply no reason to doubt that Joe Biden remains on a path to 270 and beyond.  We got this week and then next week. Then it will be Monday. Then it will be game day.

Keep the faith.

How About The News, Huh? (The Road to 270, Take 12)

 I.  The Horse Race.

Last week I wrote one day early because of the first debate. It occurred to me that I will do my last forecast on election eve, so I will stick with Mondays for these posts over the last four weeks of this blessed election season.

We have received enough post-debate polling to confirm what we all saw with our own eyes-Joe Biden won the debate.  More importantly and decisively, Donald Trump lost the debate, spectacularly.  He needed a win and he couldn't even muster a tie. Joe Biden leads the RCP average by 8.3 points, up from 6.8 points one week ago. Biden leads the 538.com average by 8.2 points, up 1.3 points from one week ago.

State-level polling has also moved in Biden's direction. Biden now has stable leads in enough states to win the presidency. He now leads every swing state that Real Clear Politics tracks closely.  He leads in each of the critical states of MI/PA/WI by five or six points. He leads in Florida by two and Arizona by three. Polling has also been close in the states that Biden doesn't need to win. Iowa, Ohio and Georgia are all  competitive and the Democrats are making a play for Texas. 

Some of this polling was conducted after President Trump tested positive for COVID-19. But most of it was taken before we learned the full extent of how reckless trump was in the days between the first debate and the public disclosure of his diagnosis. There was some concern that people might rally to the president because he is ill but his cavalier treatment of the COVID crisis works against that. And, as can be depended upon, his erratic and reckless behavior only underlines the fact that he is not up for this job.

It has been difficult to get accurate information about the President's health. His doctors and political staff have both obfuscated the details. Some doctors on social media have interpreted the information about his treatment as indicating a severe case. But it is equally plausible that the President is steam rolling his doctors into prescribing whatever treatments are available, without regard to side-effects or medical efficacy.

In the past 24 hours he seems to be doing better. The most encouraging sign so far is that he woke up this morning and released a flurry of nonsensical all caps Tweets from his iPhone. Nature is healing, and perhaps too the president. But he's not out of the woods yet, even though he talked his way out of the hospital a few hours ago. He has been given oxygen at least twice. He is old and he is obese. If he really is loading up on experimental drugs, then he might experience severe side effects. He could take a turn for the worse and leaving the hospital early has all the earmarks of being premature and stupid.

His health will dominate the news, at least until the Veep debate. Now that he is discharged, he will want to recklessly throw himself back into campaigning. Maybe he will wear a mask more often. Maybe he will avoid large crowds. And maybe, just maybe, he will keep being the same brazen jackass that we elected four years ago. (I am purposely avoiding any medical predictions here. That is not my beat.)

But time is not on his side, no matter what his prognosis might be. Trump needs to change the narrative. He probably thinks "I beat COVID" will rally his people to him. But I think this story reminds a lot more people that we are so very bad off because he has been reckless with everyone's life and health, not just his own.

II.  Veep Debate Prep.

The Vice-Presidential Debate is not an important event most cycles. Bob Dole screwed up really badly in the 1976 debate, Admiral Stockdale became a punchline in the 1992 debate and the 2008 demonstrated how low the media would set the bar for debate performances by a certified moron when they acted like Sarah Palin deserved praise for not literally shitting on the carpet.

This year will be hyped as a bigger deal because both candidates are elderly and at least one of them has suffered a serious medical condition in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Senator Harris has the cadence and style of a prosecutor. She knows how to build a case. But this doesn't necessarily help in a forum where she can't ask follow-up questions. She was not as effective defending herself in the primary debates and I expect Pence to have a few lines of attack prepared. But her main objective is to look like a moderate, dependable person should the worst happen to her boss in the next four years.

Mike Pence has one incredible gift for these debates.  He can can gaslight better than anyone in politics. At some point on Wednesday night, he will say "Of course the president does not believe "X" with an a mildly indignant tone. It will not matter, even if we have all seen vide of the president saying exactly "X" on multiple occasions.

Pence has two goals for this event. First, present a more mature face on Trumpism. It is possible that he will be the candidate by November 3rd and he will almost certainly be a candidate in four years. This is a chance to build up his brand. 

III.  The Forecasts.

I want to spend a little more time with these this week, because the movement has been significant. 

Biden's national lead is significant. He has clear and steady leads in enough states to win the election. He also had stable, though smaller leads in Florida and Arizona.  Ohio, Iowa and Texas all look to be competitive. But each forecaster has a slightly different take on where the race stands.

1. FiveThirtyEight. 

Nate Silver started this season late and with a conservative estimate of Biden's chances. He opened the forecast giving Biden 71% chance of victory. Since then, our weekly tracking had him at 73-70-72-76-77-78%. So the trend has been good for awhile. As of tonight, Nate gives Joe Biden an 81 percent chance of winning. 

Nate's model has a built-in hourglass. Trump is behind. As time and events pass, he loses opportunities to turn that around. Most significantly, Nate had Bide narrowly winning Ohio for most of this week. Right now, it is a true toss up: 49.5% to 49.5%. The leaves his score at 335 Biden, 185 Trump and 18 Toss-up.

2. The Economist.

This continues to be Biden's best forecast. Last week they had him at 85% and tonight they have moved him all the way to 90%. Their EV projection is officially 341 to 197, up from 332-206 last week..

The Economist is one of 2 forecasters who advertise a "mode" result but also publish their state by state probabilities. I prefer the latter method. There Biden remains at 334-204, with no changes from last week.

3. Sabato Crystal Ball

Prof. Sabato just projects the states as individual results, so I don't know what percentage he would assign to a Biden victory. But he currently has Biden winning 279 electoral votes and Trump just 179 with 80 tossups. 

Sabato moved both IA and OH from Leans-Trump to Toss-up. And he moved WI from toss-up to lean Biden.  He now forecasts that Biden will the Hillary states plus WI/MI/PA and NE-2nd.  

He considers FL, IA, OH, NC AZ and ME-2nd to all to be toss-ups. That gives Biden a lot of outs.

4. 270 to Win.

Similar methodology and temperament to Sabato. But he made those changes a week ago, so his ratings didn't move this week. He gives Biden a 278 to 169 lead with, 91 Toss-up votes. (OH, ME-2, NE-2, AZ, NC, GA and FL)

5. JHK Forecasts.

Biden did well here nationally this week, moving from 79.7% to 83.9%. But there were no flips in the individual races. He has Biden getting 335 votes to 203 for Trump. But he thinks Biden has a good shot at winning Georgia. (47%). 

This forecast is probably most similar to my own "hunch cast."

6. Plural Vote.

Plural Vote includes internet search data as a component of their forecast. If more people Google Donald Trump, then Trump's numbers go up. I assume they adjust for the fact that Trump is the incumbent but this week, a lot of people Googled to find out more about Trump's medical condition. That affected the model. They currently give Biden a 73.2% chance of winning, with 329 electoral votes as their most common outcome. (This is up slightly from last week when they gave Biden 70.7% and 322 EVs.)  

This forecast diverges the most between mode and aggregate mean result. If you award each state to the candidate who wins each contest most often, Biden is all the way up to 352 votes. (They project Biden to win GA about 56% of the time. That seems bullish to me.)

7. Betting Markets.

There was real movement here too. One week ago Biden had a 57.3% chance of winning the election according to the bettors on Predictit.com.  Tonight Biden has a 61.5% chance there.  This number bounces a little bit as Trumps health waxes and wanes but the movement is clearly in Biden's direction.

8. Yours Truly.

I think this week was a very bad one for the president. He is obviously ill but the whole week unfolded with a distinctly Keystone Cops feel. A number of close associates, including his wife and most of his debate preparation team have now tested positive, along with three friendly senators. His arrogance has been on full display on how he has treated the disease and even his own well-being. I don't really see how he can overcome this. 

I am moving Biden up from 86% to 91%.  Trump needs to change the trajectory of this course. To do that, he needs to recover quickly, to do well in the remaining debates and to hope that Biden has something bad happen to him.  We might look back on the first weekend of October and realize that this was where all of his bullshit caught up with him.  The polling data is encouraging. The narrative could not be worse for him. There are 29 days to go  and his campaign is in very bad shape. Almost as bad as the candidate himself is in.

IV. Taxonomy, Again.

Standard reminder of my taxonomy of states.  

A. It will seem close if he doesn't win Florida.  He probably only gets to 290 maximum without Florida.

B. It will seem comfortable if he wins NC and FL That probably gets him to 334 electoral votes. Getting over 350 will look like a nice win, especially if he can win a state like Georgia, which Obama never carried and which ought to be trending blue over time.

C. It will seem like a blowout if he adds Iowa and Ohio.  This means he recreated the 2008 coalition, with Georgia subbing in for Indiana.

D. The cherry on top would be Texas.  This probably only happens if Trump craters in some way, but the psychological value of flipping Texas will be enormous.

E. A true blow out is possible. If Trump does not recover physically and/or his behavior descends further into the realm of laughing stock, we have to look for some long shot states that might shock the world. I am partial to Montana, a state which has a track record of not liking incumbent presidents. I also think Alaska is in play during a true blowout. Beyond that, South Carolina is the only state I can even entertain as a possibility now. (Nate Silver gives Biden a 14% of winning, which is a bit better than the average National League pitcher getting a hit in any given at bat.)