Four More Years But For Whom? (2024 General Election Forecast, Take One)

Both candidates are old and familiar. They both skated to their respective nominations with ease. Both are unpopular with the median voter. And a significant segment of the general public still seem to think that some other candidate is going to walk through a spring-loaded door on a white horse and promise the world exactly whatever the hell that particular voter wants to hear and nothing else.

But that's not going to happen. There are two choices for president in 2024. And while they share all of the above-stated qualities, only one is a corrupt convicted criminal. Only one is an insufferable narcissist who intends to use the next four years to settle scores with his enemies, perceived and real.

The other candidate happens to be an extremely competent and accomplished president. The other candidate has overseen an incredible economic performance, drastic reduction in crime all while ending our longest, dumbest war and leading a coalition of democracies to defend Europe from the vile imperial ambitions of Putin's Russia.

I. WHERE THE RACE STANDS.

In the 538.com model, the race is a dead heat. As of this writing, the last 1,000 simulations had Biden winning 501 times and Trump winning 499 times. (If you assume the House of Representatives would vote for the Republican, as seems likely.)

The Economist model favors Trump. In their simulations, Trump wins 68 percent of the time and Biden wins 32 percent of the time. The betting markets also favor Trump, by a narrow margin on Predictit, more widely in some others.

I think the disparity between the models comes down to the weight given to Biden's approval numbers, which are bad. The polls do seem to give Trump a slight edge but I am reluctant to put too much weight on those just yet for the following reasons:

1. It's June. Polls are not predictions. They are snap shots in time. 

2. A lot of people, bless their hearts, do not believe that Trump and Biden will be the nominees. I knew this was crazy a year ago but to believe it at this point is lunacy. Unless either one of them dies in the next four months, we are getting a rematch. But as recently as three days ago, you could spend 79 cents to get a $1 stake in Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee for President. Right now that number is up to 85. It should be in the mid-90s.  No one is walking through that door to replace Joe Biden. If he does die, the nominee will be Kamala Harris. If you don't understand this, I can't take you seriously.

3. The polls are drastically overstating the appeal of third party candidates. The 538 model currently has Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting almost 8 percent of the vote. I doubt he will get half of that. But polls are not capturing the fact that he has been struggling to raise money and only has confirmed ballot access in six states. 

For practical purposes, the election is currently tied. And I believe it will remain so well into October. I hate the phrase "if the election were held today" because, well, the election is not held in the middle of June. But if the election were held today, Donald Trump would probably win. The good news of course, is that today is June 22nd. A lot will happen in the next 19+ weeks and I remain confident that Joe Biden will win when it counts.  But let's talk about how we get there.

A. WHY BIDEN SHOULD WIN.

1. He is a very good president. His legislative accomplishments speak for themselves. He took over during a terrible pandemic and the United States has lapped the world in recovery from it by every metric you can think of. Job 

2. He is the incumbent and the economy is doing well. This should be the ball game but a lot of people tell pollsters that the economy is bad, which seems related only to the effects of inflation. For the record, inflation is lower here than in the rest of the wealthy world, and has been dropping like a rock. But you probably know that because you are smart enough to read this blog.

3. Abortion.  Most Americans believe that abortion should not be criminalized. But the Trump appointees to the Supreme Court has give that option to states and nearly half of the states have chosen to make abortion illegal under all or most circumstances. 

4. The defense of democracy and freedom.  Joe Biden has accomplished some great things in foreign policy and he gets almost no credit for them with the average voter. He ended our longest, dumbest war. He stood with Ukraine when Putin invaded and he called out the savagery of Hamas for its attack on Israel. None of these choices have been easy and all have had some political downside. But it's 2024. Ukraine stands. NATO is stronger and when was the last time you heard someone say, "Boy, I wish we were still occupying Kabul."  

4. His administration has been scandal-free. There have been no high-level resignations. No indictments. No real scandals other than garden variety Fox News fodder about really small ball stuff.  (And the unfortunate crimes of Hunter Biden, the president's son. I happen to think that Hunter's travails make his father more sympathetic, but yeah it's a talking point that Trumpers will not tire of using.)

5. His opponent wants to end social security as we know it. Trump is smarter than the average Republican so he plays a little coy with, but I sure hope the Democrats put this issue to their advantage this year. 

6. His opponent is a raving lunatic and a convicted criminal. 

B. WHY TRUMP COULD WIN.

1. Biden is unpopular. His approval rating is right about 40%. That is low. I think a lot of this is attributable to his age, but a lot of it has to do with inflation and the fact that a good chunk of people have simply forgotten that he inherited a mess from Trump and had to devote a lot of energy to fixing that. 

2. Immigration.  I hate to say it, but Trump's enduring popularity has a lot to do with his insane opposition to immigrants other than beautiful women from Eastern Europe. The border situation has improved, but Americans really do not like what they see on the news about it. And they don't like seeing migrants panhandling on streets.  The American people are afraid of immigrants and that fact is staggeringly sad. But for now, this is a political reality.

3. Americans love rich people. I am 50 years old. The economic history of this country for the past 50 years is a cycle of a Republican president getting elected, cutting taxes, running up enormous debt and leading us into recession. Then a Democrat gets elected, cuts the deficit spending, creates a lot of jobs and tries to restore some level of sane financial regulations. Then the voters decide they want a Republican to cut taxes, so we run back for the ditch.

But voters will still tell you that the Republican party is the party of fiscal responsibility. And the party that they trust to handle the economy. And they still believe that the government should be run like a business. It's a fundamental flaw of our civic literacy. And like the aversion to immigration, it's a political fact.

4. The Right Wing is more united than it was four years ago.  In 2020 at least some hardcore right-wing thinkers were aware of Trump's awfulness enough to publicly support Joe Biden. But four years of modest regulatory enhancements and (even more modest) changes to the tax code are enough to put many of them back in the Trump column. Some of them now figure Conservatism can survive Trump and a second Trump term is their last shot at enacting some wild-ass reforms to our federal government. 

There will always be some Never Trump Republicans. But even sane Republicans are refusing to endorse Joe Biden. They don't see an upside in it.  

5. Cultural Nonsense. 

I am putting this last because it's incredibly unimportant substantively but Trump and the Republicans do seem to have a slight advantage from energizing their voters about such weight issues as a trans woman playing softball in some Junior College or any crime committed by an undocumented immigrant. This stuff ranges from petty to tawdry but it certainly consumes the thoughts of a certain segment of bored old people. 

II. The Forecast.

Joe Biden won the last election with 306 electoral votes. Because of reapportionment with the last census, the Biden states are now worth 304 votes. The Trump states are worth 234.

 1. The Road to 270.

I am very confident that Biden will win 225 electoral votes.

To get to 270, his best path is to add:  Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1) Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).

That's a too close for comfort 270 to 268 win. That would leave the nation's collective rectum tight enough to sharpen a pencil for two months.

So Biden wants to win somewhere else. The good news is he has several options. The bad news is he's not a clear favorite to win any of them.

2. The Cushion Opportunities

a. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes).  This state has gone blue in four consecutive election cycles but the margin has dropped from 13 percent in 2008 to seven percent in 2012, to 2.4 percent in both 2016 and 2020. The Nevada Dems have pulled some close elections out in recent cycles but this year it's a true toss-up.

b. Georgia  (16 votes). Trending blue for several cycles but still red in its DNA. This state can be won if black turnout is high. 

c. Arizona (11 votes) A true purple state. Basically a coin toss. Biden is helped by abortion and by Kari Lake being on the ballot for the Republican senate race. But Trump is helped by the border situation and the higher than usual percentage of crazy retirees. 

3. The One Pickup Opportunity.

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) is the only state that Biden lost by less than 3 points in 2020. If we have a genuine rightward shift in this election, than Trump will hold it. But NC is getting more diverse and the GOP nominated an absolute whack job for governor, so I think Biden has a shot here.

4. The Trump States.

I just don't see another pickup opportunity.  I think Trump has 219 electoral votes pretty well sewn up, and they probably think Arizona and Georgia will come home. 

If I had to pick the next closest Red state, I would say Florida. Biden lost Florida by 3.3 points and the state Democratic party got trounced in the mid terms. But they have shown signs of life since then and DeSantis is less popular than he was 2 years ago.  I still think Trump will win it but I think the margin will be two to four points. 

It's trendy to say that 2024 is the year that Texas will vote to the left of Florida. I don't buy it. I think Texas goes for Trump by five to seven points. Everything to the right of that is a solid red wall. The best we can hope for is a closer than usual margin in Alaska.

So here is My Honest but Slightly Optimistic Prediction of the 2024 Presidential Election. All of the red is solid and a lot of the blue is pale. That's the state of the race.  I don't think I will updating it again for a while. But we have a debate, a candidate sentencing and two conventions that will be here before you know it. So maybe things will change. (By the way, I think Trump will pick Douglas Burgum as his running mate. Or maybe he will go off the board and choose some retired general or state legislator from a swing state. But my money is on Burgum.)

One last word on the popular vote. I think it will be closer this time than last. I think Trump will do better in both New York and California than he did last time. That won't affect him but it could mean an extra seat or two in the House Republican caucus. I also think some young people will stay home this time, which is a real shame. If Trump wins,  we will be living with Trumpism for a good long while.

The 538 model predicts the popular vote will be Biden 47.2, Trump 45.2, Kennedy 7.5.

I will go with Biden 49.8, Trump 46.1, Kennedy 3.5. Others 2.0%

.

A Framework for the 2024 Presidential Election

Don't call it a Morning Line. It is too early for that. But Joe Biden has been president for six full months. That is 1/8th of his term. That is 1/4 of the portion of his term before Republicans start declaring their intention to replace him and become the 47th President of the United States. 

And we have learned a few things about him and the state of politics in the Republican party to make some observations about what is likely to happen between now and three years from this month, when the parties are holding their conventions. 

This is a big-picture conceptualization of how 2024 might go. I want to lay down a few assumptions here and then get into some hypotheticals. A lot will change between now and then, but I think it's helpful to discuss a few fundamentals about the election at this stage. The short version is that I think the next election will feature the same candidates as last time and will have a similar result.  The long version follows below. 

 I. Joe Biden is very likely to be the Democratic nominee. 

Joe Biden will be in his 80s when his first term ends. A lot of people seem to think that he will not run for a second term. I find that highly unlikely, for the following reasons. 

A. Presidents like being president. You know who was the last president to be elected and then voluntarily decide not to run for a 2nd term? James K. Polk in 1848. Anyone ambitious and confident enough to run for president has a pretty solid ego. Winning only reinforces that instinct. And presidents are surrounded by people who tell them they are doing a great job. Every single one of them believes it. There is no reason to think Joe Biden will be the exception. He's going to run because the alternative is unthinkable. For God's sake Polk died three months after his term ended. Retirement is no substitute for being the President. 

B. Incumbency Helps. Being president helps with everything from fundraising to setting the narrative. There is no campaign plane as impressive as Air Force One and no rolodex like the one that would be on the Resolute Desk if people still used Rolodexes. One of the reasons the 2020 election was closer than the polls suggested it would be is that some unexpected voter blocks gave Trump the benefit of the doubt. This happens to just about every president. The thinking is that if we've survived one term with any given fella, we can probably survive two.  A distressing number of people felt that way about the previous president, no matter how terrible he was. 

Since World War 2, sitting presidents have won eight times and lost only four times. One of those four was Gerry Ford, who was appointed to the Vice-Presidency rather than elected. The presidents who lost a second term are remembered as some of the worst presidents we ever had. If Biden has any success at all, the institutional party will want to run him again and the causal voter will be inclined to choose him. 

C. He Probably Won't Face a Primary Challenger. Biden has managed to keep his centrist identity but has achieved a lot of progressive policy goals. The expanded income tax credit alone will probably be enough to make most of the left wing stay on the bench. Bernie Sanders is too old to run for a first term. AOC is too young. Any other plausible candidate knows that starting a serious campaign against an incumbent president is political suicide. They will sit this out. 

D. He is a better political option than Kamala Harris. I have talked to people who think that Biden is a caretaker president. Because of his age and the changing demographics of his party, he will step aside after one term and endorse his vice-president. But I don't see it happening. No one in the party will accept that endorsement as a coronation, which means a contested primary. That's a huge distraction and squanders the advantages of being the incumbent party. 

Vice-President Harris has not had a breakout moment to claim the spotlight. She is being a good and faithful Vice-President. She knows that she will be the heavy favorite for the nomination in 2028 and she can afford to be patient at her age. To be blunt about it-Donald Trump would much rather run against Kamala Harris than Joe Biden. She is not a great or even natural politician. She is serving her president well and that will probably be rewarded down the line. But it's not enough to jump the queue.

II. Donald Trump is EXTREMELY likely to be the Republican nominee. 

Donald Trump has spent the last six months perseverating of the result of the last election. He is actively involved with defending the rioters who tried to prevent the peaceful transition of power in our democracy. And he remains overwhelmingly the most popular figure in the Republican party. 

He is almost certain to be the Republican nominee, for the following reasons. 

 A. He's got nothing better to do. The first rule of thinking about Trump is to remember that it IS about Trump. And the common mistake that people make when thinking about presidential candidates is to pretend they are normal people. None of them are. They want power and glory in ways that very few people can relate to. 

A lot of people thought the loss of an election would cow Trump into a life away from the spotlight. Such people do not understand the brain of a true narcissist. Trump is incapable of believing he lost anything fair and square, so his brain has erected the defense mechanism needed to convince himself that he was robbed. This aggrieved act is based on certifiable nonsense and bullshit. But it is enough to keep his ego afloat., in part because the entire Republican apparatus in the media and in Congress has lined up behind his delusions.    

He is going to run because he loves attention and the only thing that can match the attention of running for president is being president. Donald Trump will happily run in a primary. He will have his center modicum for all the debates. All of the news outlets will go back to taking him seriously and give him the coverage he needs. Twitter and Facebook might even let him have his accounts back. 

B. He has cleared the field by emasculating all his rivals. 

For five years, the most important endorsement in Republican politics has been Donald J. Trump. The vast majority of Republican office holders have lived in fear of Trump turning on them. He has turned his back on anyone who does not share his belief that the last election was stolen. Even Mike Pence, as loyal a lap-dog #2 as the world have ever seen, is now persona non grata in Trumpland. The Rubios and Cruzes of the world have forfeit any attempt to credibly run against Trump in a primary. Nikki Haley, among others, has said she won't even run if Trump runs.

Of course, he will have primary opponents. There will be a nominal Never Trump candidate-Larry Hogan of Maryland will probably run. Maybe Liz Cheney will try to settle some scores if she loses next year's Republican primary for her House seat. And there will be a couple plausible candidates who at least put a toe in the water in the hopes that Trump doesn't run. Ted Cruz is so damn ambitious that he might just sign up for another round of humiliation. Like Trump, he has nothing better to do with the next 3 years of his life. But no one can beat Donald Trump in a Republican presidential primary. Off the top of my head, this is what the 2024 Iowa Cacuses might look like. Trump 53%, Cruz 19%, Hogan 14%, Cheney 4%. Rubio and Haley and a few other dumb-dumbs can fight for the scraps. If Donald Trump runs for the nomination, and doesn't die in the first half of 2024, he will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. 

C. Beating Donald Trump in a Republican Primary is a Booby Prize.

Let's pretend that Donald Trump is somehow chastened by his loss to Joe Biden. That he has some scintilla of reluctance to run again. Maybe he dawdles for another year-never declaring his candidacy and letting some others explore their options in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Maybe he even in fit of pique says that he will not run or may not run.

So the field fills up. The Hogans and Cruz' and maybe a Kasich or two decide to run. The filed takes shape. Polls start to be taken and DeSantis or Cruz looks strong.  Trump has some personal distractions-an indictment or a divorce or a fun new project somewhere. All of a sudden, people are talking about DeSantis as the better candidate.  So Trump waits and waits. The first debate happens and he's not on stage. That will be enough to snap him back into it.

He can't resist the attentions. He can't let the Republican party love someone else they way they once loved him.  So he declares after all. Maybe right before Iowa. By then a lot of talent has signed up in other camps. Cruz and DeSantis are both pros-they raise a lot of money.  Somehow, some way, they deprive Trump of a majority of delegates and agree to run together in order to lock down the nomination.

How do you think Trump reacts to that? Graciously?  Please. He will whine and bitch like the whiny bitch that always has been.  He may or may not run third party but he definitely spends the summer and fall shitting on the people who beat him. The people who conspired against him. 

Maybe he runs third party and turns the legitimate nominee into Taft '12. Or maybe he just sits on the sidelines and his minions stay out of the rigged election, this time for good. 

Trump is going to be the Republican nominee because he is the only person that controls enough Republican voters to affect the general election outcome and enough spite to use them against the Republican party.  The party is his possession. 

Now that my assumptions are on the table, let's turn to some probabilities. 

III. Democratic Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Joe Biden Will Run for a 2nd Term	96%
Joe Biden will be Nominated again.	90%
Kamala Harris will be the Nominee	5%
Neither Biden nor Harris will be the nominee.	5%

    

Caveats & Context: 

Only a health problem will prevent Joe Biden from running. At his age, that is a non-negligible probability. But he is tall and trim and has no history of alcohol or tobacco use. The actuary charts like his chances of making it well beyond 2024 and even 2028.  But things happen. If Biden doesn't run, it could mean that Kamala Harris is the incumbent. At minimum, she will be the heavy favorite and presumptive heir.  

If Biden were to simply decline to run, than Harris would still be the favorite for the nomination. But she would face a competitive primary. Andrew Cuomo would run. Sherrod Brown could make a strong run. People will talk up AOC, but I think she's too smart to do that now. (She turns 35 in 2024.)

IV. Republican Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Donald Trump Will Run for a 2nd Term	95%
Donald Trump Will Be Nominated Again	94%
Ron DeSantis Will Be The Nominee	3%
Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the Nominee	3%

Caveats & Context:

Trump will run if he is physically capable. I know some people fantasize about him being prosecuted and incarcerated and therefor unable to run. But that is very unlikely. 

The Trump organization was recently indicted along with its Chief Financial Officer, Allen Weisselberg. Some have speculated that Wesselberg could flip on Trump and cooperate with the Feds. That certainly is possible. But even if that happened tomorrow, it would take time for Trump to be indicted. An indictment is not goin to prevent Donald Trump from running for president. It would just be a fundraising message for him.  And the sort of crimes that Trump would be accused of are not easy to prove. It would require a lengthy trial.  I do no think there is enough time for Trump to be indicted, tried, convicted and incarcerated before the Iowa caucus. It's just not going to happen.  (And for the record, I think it's unlikely he will ever be prosecuted for a crime. This one prediction, I will be quite happy to get wrong.)

If Trump doesn't run, Ron DeSantis is the obvious front-runner for the Republicans. He appeals to every large swatch of the party and he manages to sound Trumpian without being an obvious moron. He has the Yale/Harvard pedigree of Cruz and Hawley, but none of the childish need to impress the faculty lounge. Assuming he is re-elected in 2022, he would be the obvious Trump successor.

There is no obvious third choice for the Republican nomination. Pence probably alienated too much of the base by you know, believing in democracy for one day.  There will be plenty of runners, but I am inclined to believe that the nominee will be a white male. The only scenario where I see that not happening is some sort of crazy brokered convention where the grown-ups settle on Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. But the party of "Build that Wall!" chants is not going to fall in love with any brown candidates. That just will not happen.

So I think DeSantis is the obvious nominee if Trump doesn't run. The only way I do not see that happen is if something disastrous happens and he is not re-elected next year. Or maybe he wins but the election is close and that puts doubts in the minds of the party establishment. That could happen, so I leave room for the field. But just three percent.

V. General Election Probabilities.

General Election Probabilities	Probability
The Democrat Wins	60%
The Republican Wins	40%
Biden Beats Trump	51%
Trump Beats Biden	34%
Biden Beats DeSantis	8%
DeSantis Beats Biden	5%
Not-Biden beats Not-Trump	1.3%
Not Trump beats Not-Biden	0.7%

Caveats & Context:

Red states netted three electoral votes from the 2020 Census. If the 2024 election has the same exact result as 2020, the Democrats would win 303-235 instead of 306-232. But it's hard to come up with a scenario where these changes put either party over 270.  A lot of the changes cancel each other out.  (Montana's gain is West Virginia's loss, Oregon's gain is Illinoi's loss, etc.) 

The only changes among really competitive states are that MI and PA each lost one and NC gained one. 

Even starting with the dreadful 2016 result as a baseline, the Dems path remains unchanged. They start with 230 and need PA (19) Michigan (15) to get them to 264. They then need one more state to win- Wisconsin, Arizona or Georgia being most likely. 

I favor the Dems because incumbency is helpful and I think the Donald Trump shtick will have worn pretty thing on the average independent/moderate voter by the time that circus gets geared up again.

But nothing is in the bag.

Let's have some fun with specific head to head match-up.

VI. Head to Head Match-ups.

a. Biden vs. Trump. There is about an 85% of this being the match-up.

Biden's polling has been solid but not spectacular. The new wave of COVID cases is not helping, even though this wave is largely caused by people refusing to get vaccinated.  I am an optimistic person, so I think the vaccines will beat the new variants and by 2024 COVID-19 will be a marginal problem. But that's not guaranteed. Biden is also vulnerable if inflation stays high (most economists don't think it will), if the homicide rate climbs (it might) or if we enter 2024 in a recession. (Too soon to tell.)

That said, I favor Biden over Trump, comfortably. The result won't be radically different than 2020 but I think the margin will be a little wider as Biden benefits from being the incumbent and Trump's shtick wears thin on the marginal voters. 

Probability:  Biden wins 67% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-209.  He picks up NC but loses WI, in part because Trump has replaced Pence with Scott Walker.

b. Biden vs. DeSantis.  

This is an interesting possibility. DeSantis being the nominee means that he was re-elected governor of Florida in 2022 and he probably won by a clear margin.  That might make the Democrats skip Florida all together. So both parties would be free to spend a lot more money in the places that can actually decide the election. DeSantis will also have the advantage of not being in his eighties. 

This would be a very close election, assuming that Donald Trump is either dead or has given DeSantis his full-throated endorsement. 

Probability:  Biden wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 267-262. DeSantis claws back GA and AZ, but the northern wall holds for the Democrats. Trump begins saying "They should have nominated Ivanka."

c. Biden vs. Generic Republican.

Generic Republican might seem formidable now but any Republican who isn't Trump or DeSantis is probably a relative newcomer to the scene.  Cruz would get crushed. Rubio isn't up for it. The Haley or Tim Scott scenarios are far-fetched to me.

Probability:  Biden wins 60% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-219. North Carolina goes blue.

The Harris scenarios are hard to handicap. Her being the nominee either means that she is the president or that Joe Biden has decided not to run for a second term. For today's purposes, we will assume she is running as an incumbent, because I thin that is more likely than Biden deciding not to run.

d. Harris vs. Trump:

Kamala Harris ran a bad campaign in 2020. She raised a lot of money and didn't even make it to Iowa. Nothing about her performance as vice-president has particularly helped or hurt her chances. 

But I think Trump would, for the 2nd time, benefit from the sexism that exists among a frightening percentage of voters. And he will not be shy about using her racial identity against her either. He could over play that, but sadly, he seems to know how to play those games better than most. I fear this scenario.

Probability:  Trump wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Trump wins 291-247.  Trump reassembles his 2016 map, save Michigan. President Trump then announce plans to sell Detroit to Canada.

e. Harris vs. Desantis.

DeSantis on paper is a better candidate than Trump. But we don't yet know if he will motivate the casual Trump voter to turn out on election day. I am guessing he would get enough of them out to win, but this would also be a close race.

Probability:  DeSantis wins 58% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: DeSantis wins 312-226. DeSantis reconstitutes the Trump map and adds Nevada for good measure.

f. Harris vs. Generic Republican.

Well, a lot has to go wrong for this scenario to play out. But I think this means the GOP had to go with their 3rd choice, and that's not good.

Probability:  Harris wins 57% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Harris wins 292-246.

g.  The Field.

Something terrible will have to happen for the Democrats to nominate someone other than Biden or Harris. That sort of means that Biden dies in the next year or so and then Harris has such a bad run as president that some shit head like Andrew Cuomo comes in and beats her in a primary.  

This is too remote to think about now. So I won't put numbers on it yet.

 

Debatable, Barely

 I. Analysis.

The President is an ignorant, racist, deadbeat. These traits were on full display last night. He did absolutely nothing to persuade anyone that he has matured in office or that he is capable of being civil. 

Vice-President Biden was slightly overwhelmed by the reality of sharing a stage with such a rude, vituperative person for the first 15 or 20 minutes. He didn't have a great night, but he spoke cogently and avoided any terrible gaffes or unforced errors that will sting.

Biden went in with a substantial lead and he came out of it with what is likely to be a slightly larger lead in the days ahead. The instant polls indicate that he won the debate and even some of Trump's media talking heads, like Rick Santorum and Chris Christie, acknowledged that Trump hurt his own cause.

Presidential debates are usually remembered for moment and I think there are three that will be the focus of conversation this week.

1. Donald Trump refused to renounce white supremacists. He started to, but either got distracted or lost his nerve, and wound up giving a rallying cry to an obnoxious gang of racist louts. So far today his team is trying to spin this, but he has not rushed out to clarify or change the impression he made.  

2. Joe Biden invoked the military service of his deceased son Beau.  The President responded by taunting him with comments about the substance abuse issues of Biden's surviving son. Imagine responding to someone bragging about his dead son who won the Bronze Star by bringing up the fact that that person's other son had a drug problem. It is unfathomable.

3. Biden called the President of the United States a clown. He also told him "Shut up, man." These moments struck me as appropriate responses to Trump's rudeness, but I don't doubt that there are some voters who were turned off by that. Of course, people who care about decorum are unlikely to be voting for Trump, unless they are full of shit about why they are voting for that clown.

Oh and Chris Wallace is catching hell for losing control of the ship last night. He did start poorly but I think he reacted well, under the circumstances. He wasn't great, but I don't think anyone else would have done much better. 

II. A Little Bit of News.

It was easy to miss but there were at least 2 news worthy items in the ether of last night's circus.

First, President Donald Trump appeared to suggest that he is open to having the vote on Judge Coney-Barrett's nomination after the election.  He said there was "plenty of time" to do it after the election. I think that means the Republicans have read the polling on this point and are having some doubts about the wisdom of cramming this through. (I still think they will, but it was an interesting comment. I also think they will hold the vote no matter what the outcome of the election is.)

Secondly, Biden seemed to say that the Private Option of his healthcare plan would only be available to people eligible for Medicaid. I hope that reporters ask him to clarify that, but the news will probably focus on other things for the next few days. 

III. Early Signs of Movement.

I don't put a lot of stock in instant polls. The one done by CBS had Biden winning 48 percent to 41 percent. That mirrors almost perfectly the pre-debate polling average. The CNN poll had Biden winning 60 percent to 28 percent.  But only 25% of respondents were Republican, so that's probably a bad sample.

But there is one data point that has to encourage the Biden campaign this morning.  The betting markets have moved, noticeably toward Biden over night. On Predictit.com, both North Carolina and Florida have flipped from Trump to Biden. (By small margins, it must be said.)  States like Ohio and Georgia have also moved toward the Democrats. Biden's chances of winning the election have gone up by about a nickel.

IV. What Happens Next.

One of the most striking impressions last night was that Donald Trump knows that he is losing this race. I assumed that he knew that but it was really evident during the portion of the debate on election security. Trump needs to change minds. Last night was his best chance to do so, but he could not help himself. He is a rude, obnoxious jerk. That works very well with 40% of the country. That's not enough to win.

The next event is the Vice-Presidential debate. This is usually a snooze fest and I think this year will not be an exception to that. Kamala Harris had some good moments in the early primary debates but she is less deft at counter-punching.  

Mike Pence did well against Tim Kaine and I think he will hold his own against Senator Harris. The secret to his success is that he is the ability to lie with great confidence. If he gets asked to defend something absurd that Donald Trump believes, he will just start with "Of course the President does not believe that. The President is an honest, decent man.....etc, etc." The lies do not stop.

The contrast from last night will be telling. Pence might be able to make some coherent arguments that will make some voters say, "See, they're not so bad if you ignore the crazy pants way the Boss talks." But I don't think the needle will move much after a Veep debate.

The next presidential debate is a town hall forum. I think both candidates will do better in that setting. Biden is a natural retail politician and he will look more comfortable addressing regular voters than President Trump. But I also think Trump will benefit from the change in format. Trump knows he can be rude to Biden. His people expect it. He also knows he can be rude to the moderator. That's all in the game. But he has to hold back a little bit when regular old voters ask him a question. I wish the voters had a chance to ask follow-ups in this forum. That tripped up Trump in his last ABC town hall. But they usually do not allow such questions at the Town Hall debate, so we may not get to see how he does when someone tries to hold him to answering the question. 

Fun fact-the next debate will be moderated by Steve Scully, the incredibly patient and poker-faced C-SPAN host who has to listen to all those crazy morning callers. Good practice for listening to Trump's tantrums.

As I write this, the President has just appeared on the White House lawn to try to undo the damage of his Proud Boys answer last night.  His words were less than convincing but the important thing is that he seems to understand that he had a bad night and had to try to put this fire out.

He will probably be more sedate at the next debate. It would be hard not to. But by the third debate his polling situation might be so dire that he comes completely unhinged.

First General Election Forecast: Hillary 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2. (Electoral College 348-190)

The Original Splash Brother, Manute Bol

I have been meaning to write a post about the general election race for weeks. It's not a very exciting topic this far out but I wanted to put my "morning line on the record and now that Nate Silver's forecasts are up, it's time to write.  Nate's forecast is Hillary 49, Trump 45, Johnson 5. That leaves a little more than 1 percent for Jill Stein, the Green Party candi anddate.  (When writing abot 538.com's models, I will, unless otherwise indicated, refer to their Polls-Plus Forecast, because I believe it's most accurate.)

My morning line is HIllary 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2, with the Electoral College at 348-190.

My central thesis for this election is that Hillary Clinton is the favorite for two broad reasons: the fundamentals of the election favor the incumbent party and the Republican nominee is unlikely to persuade many voters to vote for him over Clinton who didn't already vote Republican four years ago. As for fundamentals, I mean the fact that Barack Obama is liked by more voters than he is disliked. The economy is generally solid and the opposition party has nominated a dumpster-fire. That dumpster-fire said things to get the nomination that probably preclude mutliple paths to the White House.

This shold make Hillary Clinton the clear favorite, and she is that.  But she comes with her own baggage and has some highy unfavorables.  As a betting matter she has been right about a 3-1 favorite ever since both parties settled on their respective nominees.  I think that accurately reflect the state of the race, and is consistent with the 538 model.

1. Specific States.

In 2012 Barack Obama won 332 Electoral Votes. Mitt Romney won 206. President Obama won 10 out of 11 close states that year. That's actually good news for the GOP.  The only state they really have to defend is North Carolina, which Romney won by just two points. The next closest margins of victory was Georgia by eight, Arizon and and Missouri by nine. Clinton needs to worry about Florida (less than one point in 2012), Ohio (three), Virginia (4), Colorado and Pennsyvlania (5) and New Hampshire (six).

So Donald trump needs a net gain of 64 Electoral Votes.  The quickest distance to that, using 2012 margins of difference is to win Florida (29 EV), Ohio (18), Virginia (13) and Colorado (9). I think that Trump's racist comments about undocumented immigrants will translate into atrocious numbers among Latino voters. That probably puts Florida and Colorado out of reach. If so, he will need to win some blue states in the Upper Midwest.

Think of Trump as having three paths to 270 Electoral votes. Each is based on the assumption that he doesn't lose any Romney states. The crucial states are Florida and Colorado, because they have high numbers of Latino voters and I think they will be hard for Trump to win.   :

A. Direct Line: Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado.

B.  Without Colorado:  If he wins FL, OH & VA but loses Colorado, he will have 262 Electoral Votes. He could get the remaining eight by carrying one of the below configurations;
        i. Pennsylvania
        ii.Iowa and New Hampshire
        iii Minnesota or Wisconsin. (Or Michigan, which is extremely unlikely.)

C. Without Florida.  If he wins OH & VA but not CO or FL, Trump is in a huge electoral hole. He would have 237 electoral votes and need to win. To dig out of that hole, he probably needs to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania. Winning both PA & MI would be enough to win, but that's unlikley to happen.  If he wins Pennsylvania, he gets within 13 votes and needs two more upsets among New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. If he wins Michigan but loses Pennsyvlania, then he needs to win both Wisconsin and Minnesota.

If Trump loses both FL and CO,  He would probably need to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. That's very unlikely.

The forecasts on 538.com show some traditionally red states as being competitive. At the moment, Nate gives Hillary a 25% chance of winning Arizona, Missouri and Georgia. But as the election gets closer, I think those states will tend to move in Trump's diretion.  My official prediction is depressingly familiar. I think Clinton will win back North Carolina and I think she will win Nebraska' 2nd congressional district. That will get her 348 Electoral Votes.


2.  Vice Presidential Choices.

Way back in November of last year I wrote that Tim Kaine would be the Democratic nominee for Vice-President.  I'm sticking with that. He's the safe, sensible choice with experience in the senat and the exective. He also helps win one of the most competitive states, Virginia  Hillary has the lead and she's a small-c conservative by nature. This is the safe pick.

The Republican running mate sweepstakes have come down to a handful of choices. Chris Christie would be absurd. Newt Gingrich would be terrible, but I think he's good at telling people like Donald Trump what they want to hear.  That can't hurt when wooing a narcissist. I think General Flynn disqualified himself when he said today that he was tepidly pro-choice.  I think Trump wold face a delegate revolt if he chose Flynn.

That leaves Governor Mike Pence of Indiana.  The biggest question about this pick is whether Pence wants to give up being governor of Indiana.  He's up for re-election and can't be on the ballot there twice.  I don't know if he wants to give up being Governor for a 25% chance of being Vice-President. But he has to know that this will elevate his name recognition and it will allow him to play the grown up for the next 18 weeks.  When 2020 comes around, he will have credibility with the people who loved Trump and perhaps with the establishment if he is thought to have made the race more competitive than it should have. He also has to consider the possiblity that should they win this thing, Trump might resign after a few months to cash in on his new fame. (This is a real prospect.)

So I think Pence is the smart choies of the remaining candidates. And really, how exciting can it be to govern Indiana?  So we are looking at Clinton-Kaine and Trump-Pence.  Neither of these choices affect any of my electoral college predictions, but they probably make Virginia and Indiana slightly more likely to stay with the party that they chose in 2012.


3. Worst Case Scenarios.

So I'm writing that there is a 25% chance that Donald Trump will be the next President-elect of the United States. Let's try to break down that that means.

First let me say that I'm always open to the idea that the Trump campaign is a giant scam and that the candidate will back out at some point rather than face ignoble defeat.  But I don't think he will do this before the convention. He can't pass up that much free air time. But if things look bad in September, he might invent an excuse for him to dropout and say that his electors should just vote for Pence instead of him. I know this is crazy. The stuff of a bad novel by a political beat reporter. But what part of 2016 has not been just that?  So let me clarify that I think the odds of the election winner are something like this: Clinton 75%, Trump 23%, somebody else, 2%.

But that leaves Mr. Trump with a 23% chance of winning. To put that in sports terms that's roughly equivalent to Manute Bol's three point field goal percentage. Sounds crazy but some of those shots went in. A more common sports analogy would be an NFL team with a 7 point defecit halfway through the third quarter. So Trump can win this. It's just not very likely.

My operating assumption for the past several months was that Trump's best chance of winning involved something horrible happening on American soil, most likely a terrorist attack that makes people willing to try out his ridiculous idea of banning Muslims and building a wall along the southern border. The mass shooting at the Orlando night club did nothing to move the prediction markets. So far the the mass shooting of Dallas police officer has also had no effect. But I'm leaving the room open for an October surprise. If we have multiple ISIS-linked or insipred attacks on the homeland in October, Trump's odds will improve.

He also has some issues to make hey with. He is running, contra the mainstream of the Republican party against free trade. He's going to promise people a return to the economy of the 1950 and 60s. He's also going to imply a trunt ot the culture of the 1950s. That does has some appeal. He is currently leading white men by more than 20 points. (Makes you proud, doesn't it?)

I think a Trump victory means four things happened:
1. Major terrorist attack on American soil or extended instances of violence against police officers.
2. A "scandal" of some sort that tarnishes Hillary more than Benghazi or the Email server have.
3. Tepid economic numbers in the fall.
4. Trump rebranding his message for the general electorate in a way that accentuates the economic insecurity of working class people while simultaneously convincing Wall Street that he won't actually impose any of his whackadoo economic poliices.

That last one is quite the typerope to walk. I don't think he has political chops or interpersnal skills to do it.  That's why I'm an optimist.

4. Best Case Scenarios

This election cycle is already a wasted opportunity. When Hillary's only meaningful challenge came from a 74 year old socialist, it meant that the party was not about to change. And when the Republicans nominated Donald Trump they doomed themselves to four years of bleating the No True Scotsman Fallacy.  When Trump loses,people like Ted Cruz will say "It's because we didn't nominate a real conservative."  And in four years, they probably will do just that.

Hillary's vote margin over Trump will probably be bigger than the 3.95% that Obama's beat Romney by. But I don't think he will win by a bigger margin than the 7.3% that Obama beat McCain by in 2008. Even if she does, I think the only red states that become competitive are Georgia, Arizona and Missouri.  A sweep of all the battlegrounds plus those three would get her up to 384 Electoral Votes. That's close to a route, but not quite the stuff of history. A truly historic meltdown by Trump might make Kansas, South Carolina and Montana competitive. But even adding them to the Blue pile would leave Trump far short of Goldwater-McGovern-Mondale territory.

A Clinton blowout probably involves for things happening;
1. A relative lack of serious terrorist activity.
2. Trump being unwilling or incapable of toning down his campaign rhetoric.
3. A massive fund raising dsparity because rich people determine that they are better off with Hillary for four years than the dumpster-fire.
4. Television ads that rehabilitate Clinton's image and cement Trump's imge among indpendents.

The hardest part is rehabilitating Clinton's image.  I think there's 40% of the population that will vote for her opponent no matter how dangerous that opponsent is.  That's why I'm not too excited about Kansas or Mississippi turning blue or even purple.  Hillary won't play aggressively enough to make them copetitive.

5.  Third &; Fourth Party Effects.

Gary Johnson is approaching double-digits in polls that include him. A lot of this is the result of Trump and Clinton both being so unpopular. But as people begin to take their vote seriously, they will not turn to Libertarians in huge numbers. I think his ceiling is eight percent and will have to fight like hell to get five percent.  His best chance of making a dent is that Trump becomes so odious that many Republicans just can not vote for him and look their neighors in the eye.  But I don't see the groundswell happening this year.  Mid single digits it is.

Jill Stein of the Green Party recently offered to ste aside so that Berne Sanders coud instead run as the Green Party candidate. Okay, that was difficult to type with a straight face. What she actually did was she pretended that she would step aside for a candidate who she knew full well intends to endorse Clinton because she things it will curry her favor with disaffected lefties.  It might, but they are small in number. Bernie supporters are already telling pollsters they will vote for Mrs. Clinton in higher numbers than Clinton supporters were saying the same of Barack Obama in 2008.  But to be fair, these Sanders voters are from the left-wing of the party whereas the Clinton supporters of 2008 were from the rightwing of the party. Voting Green was never an option for them. But it will be for about 5% of the population, especially if the polls indicate that Clinton is certain to win the election and prevent a Trump presidency.  Her ceiling is three percent. People still remember the Nader effect. It will kee her number down.  (As will her pseudoscientific opinions about GMO and vaccines, among other things.)

6.  What to Look Forward To:
A quick run down of the major events of the next 17 and a half weeks.

i. Trump's VP announcment: Probably No Later than July 15th. (That's when Pence has to decide between running for Governor or running for Veep.  I think he's say Veep.)

ii.  GOP convetion in Cleveland (and the ensuing riots). This is really Trump's best chance to put a new spin on his shtick. His one big asset as a candidate is that he knows how to use the medium of television to his advantage.  I think the convention will be more variety show than politcal theater.  People will talk about it. And there will be lots of confrontation in the streets. Here's a big prediction: on July 22nd pundits will be calling this a toss-up election. (Bettors will not.)

iii. Hillary's VP announcement. Probably Kaine but maybe some other boring white guy.

iv. DEM convention in Philadelphia (and the ensuing floor debates). I think Bernie's delegation will vote for HIllary. I also thin it will include enough young Occupy types to make the convetion less boring and sanitized than the Democratic conventions have been ever since Bill and Hillary took the reigns of the party 25 years ago.  But Hillary and Kaine will both give great speeches that no one will be offended by or remember 2 months later and she will get her bounce and the pundits will say she's the favorie again.

v.  First Presidential Debate, September 26th in Dayton, OH.

Circle your calendars for this one.  The Quantum unknown in this election will be how Hillary reacts to debating a sociopath. If Bobby the Brain Heenan were not in ill health, I would want the Dems to hire him for debate preparation.  She has to be ready for the worst of it. But Trump's big advantage is that he can also probably benefit from being (relatively) sane at this forum.  He will be on stage, one one one with someobe that's been in the national political scene since before I could vote. He can probably do 50% crazy and 50% relatively calm and come away scoring points. Or he might call her something horrific and storm off the stage  30 minutes in.  Like I said, circle your calendars.

vi. Vice Presidential Debate October 4th in Farmville, VA
I lived in Virginia for like 4 years. No idea where Farmville is.  And I can't be bothered to Google it. Becuase that's how important the Vice Presidential debate is.

vii. 2nd Presidential Debate in St. Louis, MO.
Probably less compelling TV than the first, but Trump might act from the other end of the crazy scale just to keep her guessing this time.

viii. 3rd Presidential Debate in Las Vegas, NV
Perfect location but I shudder at the lame analogies about who needs to win the big jackpot and roll box cars on top of split aces in order to parlay a oh,, fuck it. We'll all be so sick of these two people by then.  Trump might sneak in one last attempt to look normal in order to hold onto a state or two, The big questioin will be which stattes are in play by then.

ix.  Election Day, November 8th.
Don't forget to vote. And then the polls will close and we'll find out that we have elected our first president.  The only concession will probably come in the form of a deranged Tweet storm of obscenities  And won't hat be worth watching?