Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. Final 2024 General Election Forecast.

I. Four Scenarios.

The race remains extremely close. The betting odds are close to even money. The forecasts are nearly tied. But in less than 48 hours, we will probably know the winner and almost certainly the narrative will be one of these four things:

1. For a third consecutive election, the polls underestimated Trump. In this scenario the popular vote is close and Trump wins enough of the battle ground states to become president again.

2. The pollsters underestimated Harris organization and ability to turn out voters. In this scenario, the Harris campaign turns out low propensity voters and people who are simply sick of Donald Trump and all of his baggage.

3. Chaos. There has been a lot of discussion about whether 2024 will be a repeat of 2016 (Trump surges to victory) or 2020 (America turns out Trump.)  But we have to consider a repeat of 2000. the polling in swing states have been so close that it's very possible we will not know who is going to be president until the courts weigh in. 

4. Harris Wins Big. The Des Moines Register poll of Iowa (conducted by Ann Selzer) has been the golden child of polling the last two cycles. They found Trump up big there in 2016. Not only were they right about that, but the shift was replicated in other midwestern states and Trump took down the "blue wall" that was supposed to save Hillary Clinton. In 2020 they had Trump up in Iowa again and Trump won Iowa easily for a second time. The result was echoed in other states,  and the election wound up being closer than expected.

Trump won Iowa by nine points in 2016 and by eight in 2020. Selzer had Trump winning Iowa by seven in both of those cycles. Two days ago the final Des Moines Register poll had Harris up by three. If this poll is once again extremely accurate, than Harris would flip a bunch of states that Biden lost last time. 

I do not expect this poll to be that accurate for a third time in a row. But I also don't expect the wider pool of pollsters to under estimate Trump for a third straight time. In short, I think Harris is going to win. But I think it will be close.

II. Seven Swing States and Two Stretches.

The election has been narrowed to seven states for some time now.  To win the election Harris needs 44 Electoral votes from these states. Trump needs 49. From most to least important, this is what I expect.

1. Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes). This is the dog fight. The candidate who wins this state is the heavy favorite to be the 47th president. Almost every recent poll has it within a point or two. But a lot of that polling has been from partisan Republican pollsters. And they only find Trump up by a point. That should be encouraging to Harris. I think she will win the state by a point or two. If we know that result by Wednesday morning, then we are probably avoiding the chaos scenario.

2. Georgia (16 EV) Harris won this state by 11,779 votes in 2020. The state also has elected two Democratic senators. It was also the place where Trump's attempts to steal the 2020 election were most blatantly corrupt. The states demographics are trending left and Harris has made a full court press to win this state. Recent polling here has been extremely close but I think Georgia is more likely than Pennsylvania to go Republican this time. I favor Trump slightly.

3. North Carolina (16 EV) Georgia and North Carolina are interchangeable for the electoral map. They each have sixteen electoral votes and they are both southern. It is the only closely contested state that Trump held on to last time. (He won by about 94K votes.) Most of the polls here have shown Trump with a slight lead but the final New York Times poll had Harris up by three.

NC was hit very hard by Hurricane Milton. The response by the federal government was extremely competent.  North Carolina also have a very popular Democratic governor and the Republican candidate to replace him is a full blown loon. I think that helps on the margins. 

One other piece of data worth mentioning is that inflation was relatively mild in North Carolina. Nate Silver has been talking about this a lot. It seems that the states that avoided really high inflation are going to swing more to the left than other states. (This could be significant for the House-New York and California were hit hard by inflation. That would change the presidential result but it could hurt Democrats in the House.)

So my pick in North Carolina is Kamala Harris. By about a point or two.

4. Michigan (15 EV) Michigan will be one of the most closely scrutinized states regardless of the results. Michigan is home to large Arab and Muslim populations and they are concentrated in specific cities. There are a lot of Muslim and Arab voters who feel they cannot vote for Harris because of Joe Biden's decision to support Israel's response to the attacks of October 7th. I am sympathetic to this argument but also very aware that Trump will be much worse for the people of Gaza than Kamala Harris.

I think the protest vote will be measurable and I think it will cut into Harris lead. But it won't be enough for Trump to win the state. Trump won Michigan by less than a quarter of a point in 2016 and Biden won it by three points last time. Harris will win Michigan again.

5. Arizona (11 EV)  This is a weird one for me. I think AZ is a tough state to poll. Several really smart people that I follow on Twitter think this state will stay in the Dem column. It's possible but I cant' ignore that it's been awhile since Harris lead in a poll there. I think Arizona flips back to red.

6. Wisconsin (10 EV) This is where I will be on election day. I have also done a good deal of phone banking for this state. The polls are close but the Wisconsin Democrats have a great organization. I think Harris will win Wisconsin.

7. Nevada (6 EV) Nevada is the state that Dems always worry about and then they win. Polling has been a bit scattered and the Republican party has done a pretty decent job of running up a lead in early voting. But if history holds, the Reid Machine will carry Kamala over the line. Harris will win a close one, but the state will probably not be called for several days. Hopefully this time it won't hold up the call of the national race because Harris will be declared winner in Pennsylvania by Wednesday or Thursday.

The Two Stretches:

1. Kind of small beer here, but I think Harris might win Maine's 2nd congressional district. The Selzer poll of Iowa suggests that Harris is doing better with white voters than some expected. This could be a nice bonus but it won't affect the outcome anywhere.

2. The Selzer poll means we have to consider Iowa competitive. She has been accurate within a point or two the last two times and she has a reputation for letting the data speak for her. I admire that. Iowa passed an abortion ban that only took effect recently. It seems to have shifted the state left. One fun wrinkle of the Selzer poll is that it had RFK junior getting three percent of the vote. I don't think he will be much of a factor anywhere, but weird old Iowa might be the one place it matter.  

I'm keeping Iowa red on my map, but I think it will be close. Let's say Trump by two.

The only changes from my last forecast are moving NC and ME-2 blue. Here is what my map looks like now:

III. A Quick Word About Why You Should Vote For Harris.

I did my last round of phone banking today. A point of emphasis was to encourage people to tell their friends and loved ones to vote for Harris. It's unlikely that you are undecided voter if you're reading this but maybe you know an undecided voter or two. Feel free to share with them my top seven reasons to vote for Kamala Harris.

1. Trump threw a riot to steal the last election. He really did. And he has said openly that he will pardon the people who were convicted of crimes committed on his behalf that day. It will be the first order of business if he wins tomorrow. As an undecided voter, you're probably sick of being told that this election is especially important but this is the kind of stuff that ends democracies.

2. Harris will work to keep abortion legal.  Women have died because of the state bans that Trump made possible by appointing three justice who overturned Roe vs. Wade. If he regains the presidency, our government will do more and more to treat abortion as a crime. Harris probably can't fix this problem over night if the Democrats don't control the senate. But she'll work in the right direction. And rejecting Trumpism will send the message that we do not want women to die or doctors to be prosecuted for performing abortions.

3. Trump will align the United States of America with dictatorships and authoritarians. Trump does not care about democracy. He admires dictators and has PROMISED to be one, at least on his first day in office. We Americans might treat that statement like a joke, but it's not. In his heart he is an authoritarian. He will use the next four years to settle scores and to do favors to the people that he thinks helped him. This has some very real effects.

Ukraine will have to surrender a lot of territory to Russia. Trump won't give them any additional aide and he will want to take credit for brokering "peace." But this kind of appeasement will not be peace. It will give Russia permission to try to grow its boundaries. He will not stop with taking 20 percent of Ukraine. His goal and the goal of his successors is quite simply to restore the Russian and Soviet Empires. Trump will green light that.

NATO will be compromised. Trump doesn't think it is in the interests of the United States for NATO to survive because he thinks America is a fortress and we can get along with Putin and the Chinese Communist Party because we should not care about human rights or treaty obligations.

4. Trumps tariffs will wreak havoc on our economy. Donald Trump's single major economic idea is to impose large tariffs on all imported goods. He think the United States can survive as an insular economy. It can't. And the price of your smart phone and your clothes and your cars will go up immediately.

5. If Donald Trump wins, he will run rampant. He will likely have both chambers of congress. He will have an extremely sympathetic six to three majority on the Supreme Court. His first act will be stop the Department of Justice from prosecuting the crimes he committed during his first term. He will not be restrained by the cabinet members and generals who were there to put some roadblocks in his way. Moreover, he will have just been told by the American people that we don't care about the excesses of his first term. He will take a victory as a mandate for revenge. He will govern like a king who is immune from prosecution for anything that he can call an "official act."  He will have the Supreme Court he appointed and the voters he conned to thank for that. But he won't bother to be grateful.  He will be too busy, building his wall, deporting hard working people regardless of whether they are married to or the parents of American citizens. He will, as he promised, act like a dictator on day one. And who exactly is going to make him stop on on day two?

If Harris wins she will probably have control of the House but not the Senate. The Supreme Court will be hostile if she tries to do anything ambitious without congressional assent. In short, voting for Harris is to vote for moderate, restrained policy within the checks and balance of our system. Voting for Trump is voting to empower a lunatic as he passes into his eighties. Oh. and his running mate is a goober that's been in the senate for 20 months. 

IV. Just One More Thing.

 It's time to elect a woman president. Harris has avoided making this plea, and that's probably a smart decision. Hillary Clinton's campaign suffered from leaning into this bit of history a little too much. It rubbed some people the wrong way. But I'm not Kamala Harris or a woman. So I can tell you-I want a woman president. This is the ninth presidential election that I have voted in. At 51 years old, I might not vote in nine more. 

When Barack Obama was elected my friend showed his then three year old daughter one of those place mats with all the presidents. He was curious whether she would notice something different about the last face on the paper.  He went through all 44 pictures and told her just a little about each one. When he was done, she had two questions. "Why are they all boys? "And "Why were so many of then named James?"  She is in college now. I assume she has learned why all the presidents have been boys so far. I doubt she likes the answer. 

Donald Trump is in obvious mental and physical decline. He is a convicted felon and serial sexual pest. He recently told a crowd at a rally that Arnold Palmer had a large penis. He laughs when he talks about Nancy Pelosi's octogenarian husband being hit in the head with a hammer. If you want four more years of that, well you've got the company of about 45 percent of your countrymen.  

The American economy is in exceptionally strong health. We are no longer at war.  Crime is falling and we've even reduced our dependence on fossil fuels. The current administration has been a success. 

Kamala Harris is a good and bright person. She has run an excellent, moderate campaign. She is someone that will make the country proud.  If she wins, she will be proof that the American Experiment is alive and well.  You should vote for her. 

V. Putting My Predictions Out There.

Presidency:

Electoral College Harris 293, Trump 245

Popular Vote: Harris 51.03%, Trump 47.16%

Swing States:

Pennsylvania: Harris by 1

Georgia:  Trump by 0.3

North Carolina: Harris by 1.1

Michigan: Harris by 2.4

Arizona: Trump by 1.6

Wisconsin: Harris by 2.1

Nevada: Harris by 0.8

Stretch States:

Iowa: Trump by 2.4

Maine 2nd: Harris by 0.02

Florida: Trump by 2.9

Texas: Trump by 3.3

New Hampshire: Harris by 5

Virginia: Harris by 4.8

Other Big States:

New York: Harris by 20.4

California: Harris by 27.9

Illinois:  Harris by 17.4

Ohio: Trump by 6.7

The House: 
Democrats 223, Republican 212

I have paid very little attention to the house this cycle. The seats to watch are in Iowa. If people are really motivated by the abortion ban, the Dems will win one or two seats there. But control of the House will be determined by New York and California. 

The Senate:

Republicans 51, Democrats 49

Key Senate Races:

Ohio  Brown (D) by 1.8

Montana Sheehy (R) by 3.9  (Republican pick up)

Wisconsin Baldwin (D) by 3.2

Nebraska Fischer (R) by 5.7

Texas Cruz (R) by 2.3

Florida Scott (R) by 3

Arizona Gallego (D) by 5

Michigan Slotkin (D) by 4.1

Pennsylvania McCormick (D) by 3.5

West Virginia Justice (R) by 34 (Republican pick up)

Nevada Rosen (D) by 4.1

This would mean the incumbent party retaining 32 out of 34 races. But more importantly, the senate would flip to Republican control. 

     

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Five)

 In 2020 I updated my forecast sixteen times. This is just my fifth in 2024 and I don't expect to do another one. 

1. The State of the Race.

The race is too close to call. Extremely so.

There are only seven states that are being contested. The polls in all seven states are well within the margin of error. The most likely outcome is that one of the two candidates will sweep all seven. There are 128 permutations of the seven swing states. According to Nate silver, there is a 25% chance that Trump will win all seven and a 15% chance that Harris will win all seven.

In this situation, complicated electoral college map is pretty useless. Flip a coin seven times and you'll be in as full command of the facts as any pollster or pundit. So I'm not going to do that today. I'm going to talk about why this race could go either way.

2. Reasons for Trump to be Optimistic.

a. The American people have not disqualified him. By now I expected enough people to have ruled out voting for for more years of that amoral aspiring tyrant. I thought he would be stuck around 45 or 46 in the polls. He isn't. He's mostly between 47 and 49.  He probably wins at 49. He probably loses at 48 and will lose at 47.  It's that close.

b. The forecasts and betting markets have shifted towards him in the past few weeks. The FiveThirtyEight.com model gives Trump a 53.9% chance of winning. Nate Silver gives him a 54.4% chance of winning. 

The betting markets now lean in Trump's direction slightly more. Predictit has him as a four to three favorite. Polymarket is about 2 to 1 in his favor, although some of that is due to some distortion by Crypto Bros who want to shape the narrative that Trump is inevitible.

c. He is eager to cheat and a lot of his party is willing to go along with that. Whatever dirty trick they can pull, it shall be pulled. Trump has long assumed that this race will be won or lost in the courts because he has convinced himself that the courts cheated him out of victory in 2020. (They didn't. He's an idiot.)

3. Reasons for Harris to be Optimistic.

a. Women hate Donald Trump. The world has been unkind to incumbent parties since COVID-19. But the United States has one issue that makes our election different. Donald Trump appointed three justices to the Supreme Court and they all voted to give states the authority to criminalize abortion. Red states have not been shy about exercising that authority. Women have noticed.

b. Kamala Harris is more popular than Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Hillary was less hated than Trump in 2016 but they were both unpopular. Harris's personal approval ratings are roughly neutral. Trump is still unpopular generally.

c. The Democrats have raised more money and have a much better ground operation than Team Trump. 

d. Trump's age is really showing. He is tired and he rambles even more than he did in his previous runs. He is old and the people have noticed. I think in the end, this will make the difference.

4. Things to Ignore.

People are naturally trying to divine the meaning of early voting patterns. There are some theories that bolster Trump (especially in Nevada) and others that bolster Harris (especially with gender differences and the numbers in Pennsylvania).  But I am going to hold off on putting too much stock in any of that because 2020 was such an outlier for early and mail voting. Four years ago we were in a pandemic. One campaign acknowledged that and the other actively discouraged people from voting before election day.  The situation is different now. The overall numbers will be lower but I don't think they will be as lopsided in favor Democrats either.

5. My Updated Forecast.

This race is going to be very close. For the past few weeks Trump seemed to have a slight bit of momentum behind him. I think that has petered out. In the home stretch he looks tired and frail.

Harris has run a good campaign. I don't think she's a great retail politician but she has run well. She's done the appropriate mix of interviews, rallies and advertising. She's focused on the right issues and I think she is more likely to close this deal than not.

With one week to go, I think this is where the probabilities of each swing state stand:

1. Michigan (Harris 67%)

2. Wisconsin (Harris 60%)

3. Nevada (Harris 55%)

4. Pennsylvania (Harris 53%)

5. North Carolina (Trump 51%)

6. Georgia (Trump 55%)

7. Arizona (Trump 60%)

But there are 128 permutations for how 7 coin flips can go. Next week all 128 are possible. This is the one I find most likely:

VP Debate Night, 2024

 I. The State of the Race.

I have not had a reason to update my map since late July. For all the daily weirdness of the Trump campaign, the race has been pretty stable. Kamala Harris is a slight favorite. She will probably win the popular vote but there are enough very close states to keep the winner uncertain.

The simple version of the race is this. Harris is likely to win states worth 226 electoral votes. She has to win 44 more votes among the seven swing states. At the moment, I classify them this way:

Leaning Harris: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and (just slightly) Pennsylvania.  

True Toss-ups: North Carolina and Georgia.

Leaning Trump: Arizona

So Harris probably has just enough votes to win the election as it is polling now. There are five weeks to go. While there will certainly be unexpected news, there aren't many big events left on the calendar. Which leads us to tonight.

II. The Vice-Presidential Debate.

The VP debates are almost never consequential. The most memorable moment in their history was when Lloyd Bentsen insulted Dan Quayle for presuming to compare himself to John F. Kennedy. Bush-Quayle crushed Dukakis-Bentsen that November.

Tim Walz has been a great candidate so far. His favorable numbers are by far the best of all four candidates and he hasn't committed any gaffes. No dirt has come to light and his super power of normalcy has been a refreshing change of pace.  

J.D. Vance has brought absolutely nothing to the Trump team. He has said a lot of dumb things and never, ever looks comfortable on the campaign trail. People do not like him and they are right to not like him.

But the previous paragraphs only set the expectatio0ns for tonight. Vance is a pretty smooth speaker when he has a script and he had the oddly misplaced confidence of a much smarter man. He could do well tonight. Well enough to exceed expectations at least. And in a pinch, he is not afraid to lie.

III. The Questions That Should Be Asked.

1. To Tim Walz, "Vice-President Harris and you have derided Trump's plan to place a tariff on all imported goods. But Joe Biden has kept many Trump-era tariffs in place. What metrics would you use to determine the difference between good and bad tariffs?"

2. To J.D. Vance:  "After spreading the false rumor that immigrants from Haiti in Springfield, Ohio were eating pets, you said  that you felt the need  "to create stories so that the media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people." How should voters know when you are telling the truth and when you are making stuff up?

3. To Tim Walz. "Does the United States of America admit too many, too few or just the right number of legal immigrants to this country?  What criteria would you use to determine what that number should be?"

4. To J.D. Vance: "If you become president in the next four years, would you sign a national ban on abortion and if so, what would be the parameters of that ban as to length of pregnancy and exceptions for medical emergencies."

5. To Tim Walz, "Are there any specific programs or areas of the military budget that you believe should be reduced or eliminated?

6. To JD Vance, "Was the 2020 presidential election free and fair and who was the lawful winner of that election?"

7. For both candidates, "What benefits does the United States get from its relationship with Israel and are there any changes that you would make to how the United States provides aid to Israel?"

With five weeks to go the election is probably about a 60/40 tilt in favor of Kamala Harris. Tonight probably won't change that dynamic. I don't think it will much change how people feel about Tim Walz. But J.D. Vance could do a lot of good for himself by just being normal. I'm not sure he has it in him.

How I See It, How Trump Should See It.

 Well, it has been a week. Six days ago, Kamala Harris dominated her first (and probably only) debate with Donald Trump. She was great on a lot of levels but my favorite part of her performance was how she reminded people just how tiring Donald Trump's whole shtick is. She baited him repeatedly and he walked into it every single time.  Because he's a baby. 

Since then he has spent his time insisting that he won the debate, doubling down on racist lies about Haitian refugees eating pets and refusing to do a second debate. (Probably his best decision in quite awhile.)

The post-debate polls have been generally good for Harris. As for my official prediction, I'm sticking with Harris 292, Trump 246. I think the popular vote result will be similar to 2020 and there will not be many changes in the electoral college either.

I. How I See It.

A. Swing Stones Leaning Blue

I am reasonably confident that Kamala Harris will win Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. I also think she is more likely than not to win Pennsylvania. These states will get her over the finish line with 276 votes.

B. True Toss-ups

The polls in Arizona, Georgia and Arizona have been close. I can imagine any of these states going either way. If Trump sweeps them, the election will be close and he will try like hell to steal it. Every state that Harris wins here will make it harder for Trump to do another insurrection. (It's so sad that we have to think this way, but we do.)

II. How Trump Should See It.

In my previous post, I divided the swing states into three northern states and four "southern." That was because Harris needs to sweep the three northern states (WI, MI, PA) to get to exactly 270 votes and win the election.  For any northern state that she loses, she has to make up the equivalent number in the four southern states.

For Trump the math and the geography work a little differently.  Trump should win at least 219 electoral votes. To get to 270, he needs 51 more.  The easiest path there is to sweep Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. So for today's purposes, we'll call those three states The Eastern Swing States. 

For ever electoral vote Trump loses in the east, he has to make up for them in the four "western" states.

Here are the combinations that put Trump in the White House. Because GA and NC are both worth exactly 16 votes, they are interchangeable in these scenarios.

IIII. How Forecasters And Markets See It.

I think Harris is about a two to one favorite now. Let's call it 66% chance of her winning. Harris has run a very good campaign and Trump continues to step on rakes. Harris has a fundraising advantage and unlike last time the Democrats will be out knocking on doors this fall. 

Trump is going to lose the popular vote but he can still win enough swing states to get to 270. His biggest problem right now is that a lot more voters have made up their mind against voting for him than have made up their mind against voting for his opponent.

Almost all of the forecasters like Harris better today than the did a week ago.  Even Nate Silver has her chances up by a full five percent from right before the debate.

Nate Silver and his former baby, 538.com  are still 17 points apart because they moved in the same direction this week.  But like Harris about five percent more than they did before the debate.

As for betting markets, Predictit.com favors Harris 57 to 47 and Poly Market has the race must closer with Harris leading 50% to 48%.

Harris could not have asked for a better week. She continues to do well, the public is warming to her and her opponent continues to be a decrepit whiner.  

Seven weeks to go, citiens.

The Election Reduced to One Chart.

Today is Labor Day, the traditional beginning of the general election season. I have no changes to make to my previous forecast of Harris winning 292 Electoral Votes to 246 for Trump.   (This means Harris winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia while Trump wins Arizona and North Carolina.)

I. Polls, Betting Markets, Forecasts and Wishes.

Harris holds a modest lead in most national polls. Five Thirty Eight, the Economist and Nate Silver have up by about three and a half points. Real Clear Politics has her up just under two points. 

The Prediction Markets are very close. Predictit favors Harris slightly (54 cents to 49 cents) and Polymarket favors Trump slightly. (50% to 47%)

Most of the forecasts favor Harris by narrow margins. Five Thirty Eight has her winning 57 percent of the time. The Economist 52 percent of the time. Nate Silver has Trump winning something like 52 percent of the time but he has all but admitted that his model is suppressing Harris' vote too much because it's within two weeks of the DNC. (Put differently, she didn't get as large of a post-convention bounce than his model expected.)

So, you know.....close.

I for one am slightly more optimistic than these models. I think Harris has about a 65 percent chance of winning. I am of course biased in her favor. I want her to win. But the reasons for my optimism is that her personal approval ratings are about 10 points better than Trump's. That will make it difficult for him to change minds in his favor. 

Right now the median undecided voter is a normie who is sick of Trump's shtick. I believe they will be willing to turn things over to the next generation. Trump's job, as cynical as this sounds is, is to make that person afraid to turn things over to Kamala Harris. I think his attacks will get uglier over time but I don't think it will work on enough people for him to win.

He does not have the personal charisma, political skill, fund raising or even the personal energy to make that happen. He is old and declining. It shows more and more when he speaks and it is reflected in the less robust campaign schedule that he has been keeping compared to four and eight years ago. 

But campaigns are there to be won and stranger things have happened. A bit of bad news can always hurt the incumbent party and Harr is not yet running away with this thing. 

II. The Electoral Math.

We pretty much know what the result will be in 43 states and the District of Columbia. If we also assume that Harris will win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district and Trump will win Maine's 2nd congressional district, we can assume that the election starts with 226 electoral votes in the Democratic column and 219 in the Republican column.

That leaves seven swing states to decide the contest. There is an easy way to divide them-Northern and Southern. The three Northern swing states were all won by Biden last time and they generally poll to the left of the four Southern swing states.

If Harris wins all three Northern swing states, she will hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes. If she loses any of these states she will have to make up for it by winning a matching number of electoral votes in the southern part of the map.

Here's a way to think of it.  

1. Harris is expected to win 226 votes in reliably blue states.

2. She needs 44 more Electoral Votes to get to 270.

3. The quickest way to do that is to win the three Northern Swing States-Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (19). That puts her on exactly 270.

4. For every electoral vote she loses in the Northern Swing States, she must make up for them by winning that same number in a Southern Swing State: Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).

Here a chart for what combinations of Southern Swing States would make up for losing one or more of the Northern Swing States.

That is the scorecard you need for election night. As the weeks progress, I'm sure I'll update my expectations. But the math on getting to 270 is pretty simple here. Harris needs to rebuild the Blue Wall of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania or patch any cracks in it with an equal number of Electoral Votes from Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

PS: I want to plug a new election forecaster for this cycle. He goes by Theo and I came across him on Twitter. (His Twitter handle is @ctolga_ )  

He has built a neat and visually appealing website for his forecast. His fore cast is considerably more optimistic than the older established forecasts. But I have a hunch that those forecasts are going to trend in his directions as the weeks go by.  Here is the link to his website:

https://theo-forecast.github.io/

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Three)

 Kamala Harris has had a very good week. Nearly everything in the news this week has been good for her and today we saw the first meaningful polls conducted entirely after Biden's withdrawal on Sunday. The results were quite good. To put it simply, the race went from favoring Trump and trending his way, to more or less a dead heat.

Not every week will go this smoothly. But for the moment, she has reenergized Democratic voters and independents seem glad to not have to choose between two very old men.

I. Veep Stakes Update.

I still think the VP choice will be one of the five that I wrote about in my last post. But it has been fun to watch them and a couple longshots jockey for position.  I'm adjusting my ratings based on the week that was and a sharper sense of where the Electoral College will likely tip.

The Top Tier:

1. Governor Josh Shapiro. He's had a strong audition. And Pennsylvania is the most important swing state because it has the most electoral votes. He's still not quite my favorite, but he's certainly unobjectionable and the logic of picking the guy most likely to get you to 270 is pretty hard to counter.

2. Governor Roy Cooper.  Same logic as above with the added twist that Harris is said to be on very good terms with him. NC has 3 fewer EC votes than Pennsylvania and that might cost Cooper the nod here. But he's definitely getting a long hard look.

3. Senator Mark Kelly. You know what overcomes the stigma of being short and bald? Being an astronaut. Kelly is probably the best national candidate. He will be a great contrast with JD Vance. I also like the way that he and his wife are going for the job without being unseemly about it. 

The Stretches.

4. Governor Tim Walz. If Minnesota is in play, then the Democrats are probably losing. But Walz will play well in WI and MI too. He's probably had the best television appearances this week, largely driven by a simple motto "Take care of your neighbors and stop being weird." That plays really well and is a nice reprieve from almost a decade dominated by Trumpism.

5. Governor Gretchen Whitmer.  I still think she's a great candidate. But she has said she doesn't want it and I think both she and Harris buy into the notion that they shouldn't put two women on the ticket. Let me push back against that idea for a moment. Can you imagine a voter who says, "I will vote for a woman but only so long as her vice-president is a man." If you find that unlikely, then you probably understand why I don't really buy this argument. 

But the issue is probably more subtle than this. So she has to be considered a long shot. But I do think that's a shame.

The Bad Ideas.

6. Secretary Pete Buttigieg. He's great on television. And it would be fun to watch him debate JD Vance. But...no. He's too young. He needs to get a bigger job before I can take him seriously. In 2032 he will be 50 years old. That seems like a good time to run.

7. Governor J.B. Pritzker.  Well if you really want someone to balance a ticket, I guess Kamala + JB weigh about the same as Trump + Vance. But let's not take that too literally.  Pritzker has been a pretty good governor of Illinois but he's a little smarmy and picking him will bring 14 weeks of Trump making fat jokes and (more importantly) talking about Chicago in the most ridiculous ways ever.

II. The Roads to 270.

As discussed last time, I think Harris is pretty locked in for 226 electoral votes. I think she is favored in Michigan (15) and slightly favored in Wisconsin (10).   That gets us to 251.  The last 19 are the interesting part. There are 2 ways to get there.

1. Win Pennsylvania. That gets Harris up to exactly 270.  If Shapiro is picked, this is probably why.

2. Win North Carolina or Georgia plus one more state. GA and NC both have 16 electoral votes, so winning one gets us to 267 and we need just one more state.  Winning both would get us there. The  other options are Nevada (6), Arizona (11).

III. My Updated Forecast.

So I am optimistic. The race has been joined and I hope things go well. But I understand that the GOP has an Electoral College advantage. The betting markets still favor Trump. 

I'm not ready to say Harris is the favorite. We need to see more polls. We need to know her roommate. But I started by saying it was a good week, and I am going to move Wisconsin from light red to light blue. 

Onward and Upward.

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Two)

This is the fourth presidential election cycle that I have forecast on this humble blog. For the first time ever, I am predicting that the Republican candidate is more likely to win than the Democratic candidate. But as of today, we at least know who the Democratic candidate will be and her name is Vice-President Kamala Harris.

My Thanks to All of You.

Joe Biden did something really great and patriotic today. I am a huge admirer of him and I think he's been the best president of my lifetime. I have also vocally supported him as the candidate this time around.  But Father Time is undefeated. After a dreadful debate performance, Biden gave three lengthy interviews and a long press conference. His performance at each was underwhelming. 

It had to be frustrating for him to realize that he's still doing a great job but can no longer project the strength and vigor that voters want from the president. I give him a lot of credit for making this difficult decision. But he's much more a patriot than egotist, so I'm not surprised he got there.

Now It's On To Chicago.

Kamala Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee. No one important will challenge her. The other day I tweeted that the roll call vote will be something like this:  Harris 3,974 Newsom 15, Bernie Sanders 7, Gretchen Whitmer 4, Michelle Obama 3, Dean Phillips 1, Seth Moulton 0.

That's right about where I am still, with one exception. I forgot that some guy named Jason Palmer got on the ballot in American Samoa and beat Joe Biden in that caucus. He earned three delegates and deserves to keep them. Mr. Palmer-you rock.

But sometime between now and the Democratic convention in Chicago, Kamala Harris will have to pick a running mate. She has a handful of attractive options.

When picking a Vice-President, one should consider the following criteria, in order:

1. Are they plausibly qualified to be President of the United States?

2. Will they hurt me by pissing off a specific voting block or bringing scandal to my ticket?

3. Can they help me in a specific swing state?

4. Do we make a good team? Put differently, can they be part of sending a specific and cohesive message to voters?

In the hours since Biden dropped out, most of the running mate talk has focused on four governors. I think there is also one senator worthy of being vetted and considered by VP Harris.  Here are the five most likely running mates, listed in order of my preference.

1. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan. I'll be direct. I think she's the best choice. She probably takes Michigan off of the map. She is wildly popular in her home state and is good on television. I also think that picking a woman would be bold choice for Harris. It would reflect confidence and really underline that this election is about transitioning to the next generation

2. Senator Mark Kelly, Arizona.  He's an astronaut, which is about the coolest thing a person can be. He doesn't alienate any particular block of voters and he could help in Arizona, a state that Biden won by just 10K votes last time. The only downside here is that it would put his senate seat up for a special election in a midterm. But he has to be considered seriously. He's also a good man with a very sympathetic personal history that ties into the issue of gun violence. 

I don't know if I see a "brand" angle but I think a Harris-Kelly ticket can make this vote about abortion access and gun violence. Those issues are winners for Democrats.

3. Governor Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania. He's going to be a popular source of speculation because Harris probably needs to win Pennsylvania and she doesn't have the connections there that Joe Biden did. But he's in his first term, which means he's green. Like Harris he is a former attorney-general of a large state. The creates an interesting brand idea but this one might not catch on with some younger voters.  He's also Jewish and the first black woman to run for president might be tempted to stick with a white Christian man. 

4. Governor Roy Cooper, North Carolina.  I don't know a lot about him. But he's a popular governor of  light red state.  But NC is a slight reach for the Democrats this year and his lieutenant governor is a full-blown nut bag and when Cooper is out of the state, the Lieutenant Governor gets to be the "acting governor."  (This particular lunatic is also the Republican nominee for governor this year.) I don't like this pick but Harris is said to be fond of him, so he could end up getting the job.

5.Governor Any Beshear, Kentucky. He is a really good politician and his electoral success in a red state shouldn't be ignored. But he doesn't shore up any particular swing state and I'm not aware of any personal connection between he and Vice-President Harris.  He's worth a look, but well, he's not as strong of an option to my mind.

Other names will be floated but I really think she's going to pick one of these five. Time is short so she can't get too creative. Better to stick with prospects who have been closely examined by voters, at least in their home state.

And Let's Win There.

Okay, so now for the hard part. Winning the general election.  

I expect that Kamala Harris will get a good round of press and that will probably translate into modestly better poll numbers than we have seen over recent weeks. There are a whole lot of people who don't link Trump but claimed they were more worried about Biden because of his age. The fight for those votes in November will probably determine the winner.

But I still think she's the under dog. The map I post below is exactly what I would have posted if Biden were still the expected nominee. 

The Roads to 270.

I'm reasonably confident that Kamala Harris will win at least 226 Electoral College Votes. That leaves her 44 votes shy of 270. The states at play can be put in two broad categories:

The Blue Wall: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10)

The Sun Belt: North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).

1. Sweep the Blue Wall.  

226 + Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) get her to exactly 270.

2.  Win Two Blue Wall and Two Sun Belt.

226 + WI + MI =251  

NC (16) or GA (16) gets Harris to 267. She would then need to win more state to get to 270.

3. Michigan and 29 Sun Belt Votes

4. Wisconsin and 34 Electoral Votes. (This seems very unlikely. If Harris loses MI and PA, she is probably not winning Three of the four Sun Belt states.)

It's not easy to write that I think Donald Trump is more likely than not to win this next presidential election, but right now I think Kamala Harris is on a path to winning 241 Electoral Votes .She has 106 days to get that up to 270. If you live in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, I hope you like political ads on during TV commercial breaks.

. 

Four More Years But For Whom? (2024 General Election Forecast, Take One)

Both candidates are old and familiar. They both skated to their respective nominations with ease. Both are unpopular with the median voter. And a significant segment of the general public still seem to think that some other candidate is going to walk through a spring-loaded door on a white horse and promise the world exactly whatever the hell that particular voter wants to hear and nothing else.

But that's not going to happen. There are two choices for president in 2024. And while they share all of the above-stated qualities, only one is a corrupt convicted criminal. Only one is an insufferable narcissist who intends to use the next four years to settle scores with his enemies, perceived and real.

The other candidate happens to be an extremely competent and accomplished president. The other candidate has overseen an incredible economic performance, drastic reduction in crime all while ending our longest, dumbest war and leading a coalition of democracies to defend Europe from the vile imperial ambitions of Putin's Russia.

I. WHERE THE RACE STANDS.

In the 538.com model, the race is a dead heat. As of this writing, the last 1,000 simulations had Biden winning 501 times and Trump winning 499 times. (If you assume the House of Representatives would vote for the Republican, as seems likely.)

The Economist model favors Trump. In their simulations, Trump wins 68 percent of the time and Biden wins 32 percent of the time. The betting markets also favor Trump, by a narrow margin on Predictit, more widely in some others.

I think the disparity between the models comes down to the weight given to Biden's approval numbers, which are bad. The polls do seem to give Trump a slight edge but I am reluctant to put too much weight on those just yet for the following reasons:

1. It's June. Polls are not predictions. They are snap shots in time. 

2. A lot of people, bless their hearts, do not believe that Trump and Biden will be the nominees. I knew this was crazy a year ago but to believe it at this point is lunacy. Unless either one of them dies in the next four months, we are getting a rematch. But as recently as three days ago, you could spend 79 cents to get a $1 stake in Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee for President. Right now that number is up to 85. It should be in the mid-90s.  No one is walking through that door to replace Joe Biden. If he does die, the nominee will be Kamala Harris. If you don't understand this, I can't take you seriously.

3. The polls are drastically overstating the appeal of third party candidates. The 538 model currently has Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting almost 8 percent of the vote. I doubt he will get half of that. But polls are not capturing the fact that he has been struggling to raise money and only has confirmed ballot access in six states. 

For practical purposes, the election is currently tied. And I believe it will remain so well into October. I hate the phrase "if the election were held today" because, well, the election is not held in the middle of June. But if the election were held today, Donald Trump would probably win. The good news of course, is that today is June 22nd. A lot will happen in the next 19+ weeks and I remain confident that Joe Biden will win when it counts.  But let's talk about how we get there.

A. WHY BIDEN SHOULD WIN.

1. He is a very good president. His legislative accomplishments speak for themselves. He took over during a terrible pandemic and the United States has lapped the world in recovery from it by every metric you can think of. Job 

2. He is the incumbent and the economy is doing well. This should be the ball game but a lot of people tell pollsters that the economy is bad, which seems related only to the effects of inflation. For the record, inflation is lower here than in the rest of the wealthy world, and has been dropping like a rock. But you probably know that because you are smart enough to read this blog.

3. Abortion.  Most Americans believe that abortion should not be criminalized. But the Trump appointees to the Supreme Court has give that option to states and nearly half of the states have chosen to make abortion illegal under all or most circumstances. 

4. The defense of democracy and freedom.  Joe Biden has accomplished some great things in foreign policy and he gets almost no credit for them with the average voter. He ended our longest, dumbest war. He stood with Ukraine when Putin invaded and he called out the savagery of Hamas for its attack on Israel. None of these choices have been easy and all have had some political downside. But it's 2024. Ukraine stands. NATO is stronger and when was the last time you heard someone say, "Boy, I wish we were still occupying Kabul."  

4. His administration has been scandal-free. There have been no high-level resignations. No indictments. No real scandals other than garden variety Fox News fodder about really small ball stuff.  (And the unfortunate crimes of Hunter Biden, the president's son. I happen to think that Hunter's travails make his father more sympathetic, but yeah it's a talking point that Trumpers will not tire of using.)

5. His opponent wants to end social security as we know it. Trump is smarter than the average Republican so he plays a little coy with, but I sure hope the Democrats put this issue to their advantage this year. 

6. His opponent is a raving lunatic and a convicted criminal. 

B. WHY TRUMP COULD WIN.

1. Biden is unpopular. His approval rating is right about 40%. That is low. I think a lot of this is attributable to his age, but a lot of it has to do with inflation and the fact that a good chunk of people have simply forgotten that he inherited a mess from Trump and had to devote a lot of energy to fixing that. 

2. Immigration.  I hate to say it, but Trump's enduring popularity has a lot to do with his insane opposition to immigrants other than beautiful women from Eastern Europe. The border situation has improved, but Americans really do not like what they see on the news about it. And they don't like seeing migrants panhandling on streets.  The American people are afraid of immigrants and that fact is staggeringly sad. But for now, this is a political reality.

3. Americans love rich people. I am 50 years old. The economic history of this country for the past 50 years is a cycle of a Republican president getting elected, cutting taxes, running up enormous debt and leading us into recession. Then a Democrat gets elected, cuts the deficit spending, creates a lot of jobs and tries to restore some level of sane financial regulations. Then the voters decide they want a Republican to cut taxes, so we run back for the ditch.

But voters will still tell you that the Republican party is the party of fiscal responsibility. And the party that they trust to handle the economy. And they still believe that the government should be run like a business. It's a fundamental flaw of our civic literacy. And like the aversion to immigration, it's a political fact.

4. The Right Wing is more united than it was four years ago.  In 2020 at least some hardcore right-wing thinkers were aware of Trump's awfulness enough to publicly support Joe Biden. But four years of modest regulatory enhancements and (even more modest) changes to the tax code are enough to put many of them back in the Trump column. Some of them now figure Conservatism can survive Trump and a second Trump term is their last shot at enacting some wild-ass reforms to our federal government. 

There will always be some Never Trump Republicans. But even sane Republicans are refusing to endorse Joe Biden. They don't see an upside in it.  

5. Cultural Nonsense. 

I am putting this last because it's incredibly unimportant substantively but Trump and the Republicans do seem to have a slight advantage from energizing their voters about such weight issues as a trans woman playing softball in some Junior College or any crime committed by an undocumented immigrant. This stuff ranges from petty to tawdry but it certainly consumes the thoughts of a certain segment of bored old people. 

II. The Forecast.

Joe Biden won the last election with 306 electoral votes. Because of reapportionment with the last census, the Biden states are now worth 304 votes. The Trump states are worth 234.

 1. The Road to 270.

I am very confident that Biden will win 225 electoral votes.

To get to 270, his best path is to add:  Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1) Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).

That's a too close for comfort 270 to 268 win. That would leave the nation's collective rectum tight enough to sharpen a pencil for two months.

So Biden wants to win somewhere else. The good news is he has several options. The bad news is he's not a clear favorite to win any of them.

2. The Cushion Opportunities

a. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes).  This state has gone blue in four consecutive election cycles but the margin has dropped from 13 percent in 2008 to seven percent in 2012, to 2.4 percent in both 2016 and 2020. The Nevada Dems have pulled some close elections out in recent cycles but this year it's a true toss-up.

b. Georgia  (16 votes). Trending blue for several cycles but still red in its DNA. This state can be won if black turnout is high. 

c. Arizona (11 votes) A true purple state. Basically a coin toss. Biden is helped by abortion and by Kari Lake being on the ballot for the Republican senate race. But Trump is helped by the border situation and the higher than usual percentage of crazy retirees. 

3. The One Pickup Opportunity.

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) is the only state that Biden lost by less than 3 points in 2020. If we have a genuine rightward shift in this election, than Trump will hold it. But NC is getting more diverse and the GOP nominated an absolute whack job for governor, so I think Biden has a shot here.

4. The Trump States.

I just don't see another pickup opportunity.  I think Trump has 219 electoral votes pretty well sewn up, and they probably think Arizona and Georgia will come home. 

If I had to pick the next closest Red state, I would say Florida. Biden lost Florida by 3.3 points and the state Democratic party got trounced in the mid terms. But they have shown signs of life since then and DeSantis is less popular than he was 2 years ago.  I still think Trump will win it but I think the margin will be two to four points. 

It's trendy to say that 2024 is the year that Texas will vote to the left of Florida. I don't buy it. I think Texas goes for Trump by five to seven points. Everything to the right of that is a solid red wall. The best we can hope for is a closer than usual margin in Alaska.

So here is My Honest but Slightly Optimistic Prediction of the 2024 Presidential Election. All of the red is solid and a lot of the blue is pale. That's the state of the race.  I don't think I will updating it again for a while. But we have a debate, a candidate sentencing and two conventions that will be here before you know it. So maybe things will change. (By the way, I think Trump will pick Douglas Burgum as his running mate. Or maybe he will go off the board and choose some retired general or state legislator from a swing state. But my money is on Burgum.)

One last word on the popular vote. I think it will be closer this time than last. I think Trump will do better in both New York and California than he did last time. That won't affect him but it could mean an extra seat or two in the House Republican caucus. I also think some young people will stay home this time, which is a real shame. If Trump wins,  we will be living with Trumpism for a good long while.

The 538 model predicts the popular vote will be Biden 47.2, Trump 45.2, Kennedy 7.5.

I will go with Biden 49.8, Trump 46.1, Kennedy 3.5. Others 2.0%

.

New Hampshire-What Will We Learn?

 Iowa: What Did We Learn?

Very little. The result pretty much matched the polls. But a quick moment of self-reflection. Here are my predicted vote percentages for Iowa with the actual result in ( ). 

      Trump 53% (51%)

      Haley 21% (19%

      DeSantis 20% (21%)

      Ramaswamy: 5% (7.7%)

      Hutchinson: 1% (0.2%)

Pretty close, but I did have Haley in second and Ron in second. That didn't work out.  Give myself a B+.

New Hampshire: What to Expect.

We're about 14 minutes away from the results in Dixville Notch and that other stupid town up north. But that won't tell us much.

Since Iowa, The third, fourth and sixth place finishers have all dropped out. (Shout out Ryan Binkley who finished ahead of Asa Hutchinson in Iowa and then stayed on to fight in New Hampshire! Well done, weird nobody.)

DeSantis and Ramaswamy have both endorsed Trump. The polls this week suggest that most of their votes are going to go with Trump. He is a very heavy favorite to win and very well might run up a big margin.

But New Hampshire does have a contrarian streak. They don't like to vote for the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. And Trump had a few hiccups on the trail this week, so maybe he won't quite crush it.  There also could be some Democrats voting in the Republican race to just drag it out a little longer.

Here's my official prediction:

Donald Trump: 54.1%

Nikki Haley       43.9%

Binkley                0.5%

Others:                 1.5%  (Strays for Christie, DeSantis, etc.)

What Does Haley Need?

To even dream about being the nominee, she needs a win. She's not getting that. But if she can get 45% of the vote, than she might be tempted to hang in there a little longer and see if the donor class keeps her afloat just in case DJT strokes out in the next month.

If she loses by more than 15, she probably drops out tomorrow night or Wednesday morning. The humiliation of losing South Carolina to Trump would be too much to bare. (And the donor class won't waste their money on her.

What About the Dems?

There is a Democratic Primary tomorrow too but it won't be sending any delegates to Chicago and Joe Biden isn't on the ballot.

That said, there's like 25 other people in the ballot and no small number of Granite Staters are pissed off that the Democratic party took away their monopoly on being the first in the nation primary. So this number could be interesting.

Biden will win and he should do so with an outright majority. If he doesn't, and Nikki Haley drops out, the media will try to make the Democratic race feel competitive. (It isn't.)

But once again in the breach, here I go:

Joe Biden: 64.3%

Dean Phillips: 16.7%

Marianne Williamson: 8.2%

The other weirdoes and spoiled ballots will be like 10%.

Ooooh, Dixville Notch and Hart's Crotch are going to be announcing in a minute.....

2024 Begins (Iowa Caucuses)

 Tonight some modest number of Iowans will brave sub zero temperatures and lumber their way to fire houses and gymnasiums to begin the formal process of picking the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. His name is Donald Trump.

But four other bozos are trying to upset him. So let's play along. Here is my official prediction for tonight:

      Trump 53%

      Haley 21%

      DeSantis 20%

      Ramaswamy: 5%

      Hutchinson: 1%.

So there will be something to watch for tonight-the battle for second place. If DeSantis doesn't win second, he will have to give some consideration to dropping out. But I suspect he will stay around for awhile. Hutchinson will probably drop out tonight. Ramaswamy has nothing better to do with his time.

So what happens next?

New Hampshire, of course. There have been some polls that showed NH being more competitive than Iowa. If you squint, you can convince yourself that Nikki Haley will make it close. Maybe only lose by ten points. New Hampshire does have a history of rejecting Iowa's winner. And there will be some number of Democrats who choose to vote for her since the Democratic primary is not sanctioned by the party and Joe Biden isn't even on the ballot there.

 But Trump's going to win. Probably by closer to 20 points than to ten.

Then the race turns to South Carolina. Nikki MUST win there to even pretend she can beat Trump. If she loses her home state, (and I expect she will), then she'll be out of the race promptly.

In a normal year, there wouldn't be any candidates left to run against Trump. But, this year, there's this other thing.

This Other Thing.

Donald Trump is facing four separate criminal trials: one in New York that no one cares about, one in Florida that the judge is set on delaying as much as possible, one in Georgia that is complicated by the number of co-defendants and one in Washington DC that is set to being on March 4th.

I think there's a chance that one or more Republicans will stay in the race even after getting drubbed in the early primaries because they will know that chaos is likely to come and they will want to grab as many delegates as possible before that happens.

Trump is desperate to get this trial delayed. And he might succeed. But I think it will go, if not on March 4th than sometime before May. If that trial goes, he is very likely to be convicted of at least one felony. That would normally get him him thrown of the Republican ticket but the Republican party in 2024 is anything but normal. Trump will appeal his conviction and cry foul, as he always does when he faces a setback. By April 2nd, more than 3/4 of the delegates will have been awarded but a conviction would leave at least some doubt on the identity of the nominee. 

One or the other-an acquittal or a persistent march through to the required delegate number, Donald Trump will be the nominee. He will not get out of the race gracefully. He controls the party apparatus thoroughly enough he will ward off any legal or technical challenges.

I suspect that no later than June 1st, the world will realize that Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for President on Election Day, 2024. 

Meanwhile....

Meanwhile Joe Biden will safely, surely move his way through the primaries. Dean Phillips might do some numbers in New Hampshire, since Biden's name isn't on the ballot. But that won't move the needle and Joe Biden will vacuum up most of the delegates elsewhere. By May, the electorate will finally accept what has been obvious to anyone since November of 2020-Joe Biden will be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024.

He certainly deserves to be. He has been a great president, both domestically and on foreign policy. He got important and productive legislation passed at home. And he has stood for America's commitment to Democracy and our alliances abroad. It's been over two years since an American service member lost their life in foreign combat. But NATO is stronger than ever. Russia looks week and despite some caterwauling from the Tiktokigentsia, he made the right decision to support Israel's right to defend itself against the brutality unleashed by Hamas on October 7th.

And oh yeah, a year ago most economists thought we would be in a recession by now. We ain't. In fact, the economy is growing great, job growth has been incredible and real wages are up. If this is news to you, you need better news sources. Because the media narrative has been quite different and the zeitgeist of the electorate seems to be "Economy Good when Gas Prices Low" which is exceptionally stupid.

The General.

Biden's success does not assure him of an easy election. His age is a negative. The public is weary of the situations in Ukraine and Israel. Many voters are not sophisticated enough to understand that Biden's policies have been principled and productive. They just want the world to be safe and normal, as long as it doesn't cost them anything to achieve that.

But sometime this summer, or early fall, the American people will realize that they have only two choices for President. I expect that gradual realization to favor Joe Biden. Because the other choice is a raging doofus. For all the talk of Joe Biden's age, Donald Trump seems to be older, more frail and in generally bad health. He's also nuts. Like, really, really nuts. Talk to the Pepsi machine at the laundromat nuts.

That doesn't mean he can't win. In fact he has a plan to do just that. His job is to convince people that every problem in the world is Joe Biden's fault. His biggest assets are the migrants who are showing up at the border every day and being promptly bussed to cities that Trump wants to make look bad. Those cities are legitimately straining at the burden. I doubt that House Republicans will agree to any package of compromises that allow improvement in this situation. (To be clear, yes I believe the Republican party is intentionally setting out to let many thousands of poor people make their way to this country so they can be dumped out on the street and make Joe Biden look bad. If this works, the first people to suffer will be those very unfortunates who are currently being used as pawns in this game.)

This Shit Can Work.

Four Years Ago when I did my first post about that election, I declared the race a dead heat. I said Biden lead in 268 electoral votes and Trump in 260. My best guess was that Wisconsin would determine the winner. That was before COVID-19. By April I said that Biden was the modest favorite to win. 

That's about where I am right now. It's customary to say something about "if the election were held today." But the election is not being held today or a week from now. A large swathe of the electorate still thinks that a bunch of farmers in Iowa tonight and another bunch of Boston suburbanites will get together this month to hand them choice more palatable than Biden and Trump. But that will not happen.

Both parties are sticking with their choice from last time. Neither party thinks that is ideal, but both think it is better than the alternatives. For Democrats, they have to run on Biden's record. Not nominating him would make that suspect. And incumbency is powerful while competitive primaries are usually fatal for the incumbent party. For Republicans, the majority of their membership simply love Trump for what he represents a rich guy who is proud of his own ignorance. He also gives legitimacy to their prejudices and simplistic solutions.

This campaign will be ugly. Trump will try to make Americans afraid of immigrants and foreign allies and taxes and math. Biden will beat the drums of abortion rights, prosperity and the importance of remaining committed to democracy here and abroad.

Biden is vulnerable, as is every incumbent to world events. A terrorist attack, a disruption of shipping lanes or a huge setback in Ukraine would make him look weak and his foreign policy look like a failure.

I'll do my first official forecast after the first few primaries. But if I had to bet right now, Biden will win the popular vote by three or four points. I don't see him expanding the electoral map. Maine's 2nd congressional district and North Carolina are his only really plausible pickup opportunities. He very well could love Georgia and/or Arizona. Some think Nevada will go red, but I think Trump's negatives will keep that home. Let's say Biden 293, Trump 245. 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

A Look Back at the Midterms and a Peak, God Help Me, at 2024.

I. What Did We Learn?

I will get to my predictions report card, but first I want to discuss a few things the midterms taught as about about where the voting public is.

1. Abortion Access is Very Popular.

Any serious analysis of these midterms has to begin with the simple fact that a clear and convincing majority of American voters want abortion to be generally legal.  The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade was an electoral disaster for the Republicans. It probably determined control of the senate and might have made the difference in at least two governor's races. (Wisconsin & Arizona.)  The issues was on the ballot directly in at least five states and all five states voted in favor of keeping abortion legal. 

Voters in Vermont voted to create a constitutional right to reproductive autonomy by more than three to one. California voted for something similar by two one and Michigan voted for one by 14 points. But even in Kentucky and Montana anti-abortion measures were defeated by five points. 

The Republicans would be wise to let the Democrats codify Roe during the lame duck session. Murkowski and Collins could provide 2 votes if Manchin and Sinema are still hold outs. (Sinema, at least, would be wise to changer her mind on the that point anyway.)

But I don't think the Republicans are ready to cut ties to their hardcore base just yet.

2. State Political Parties Matter.

Democrats got amazing results in places like Michigan. They won close senate races in EVERY presidential battleground that had a contest this time. But they also got clobbered in Florida, lost some important house races in New York and (to a lesser extent) in California. 

Ron DeSantis was expected to be re-elected governor of Florida. But no one had him winning by almost 20 points. There are three things that helped DeSantis here:

1. The FL Democratic Party is just not very good. 

2. FL had a major hurricane in late summer and the response to it was pretty well organized and competent. Voters remember that.

3. Some independent and moderately conservative Republican voters probably wanted to build up DeSantis as an alternative to Donald Trump.  (Trump v. DeSantis will be the subject of an upcoming post.)

Other governors with good ground games from both parties were rewarded with wins by larger than expected margins. This happened for Democrats in Wisconsin and Michigan and for Republicans in Georgia and New Hampshire. Worth noting that Wisconsin, Georgia and New Hampshire favored people from different parties to the senate and the governor's mansion. (Michigan did not have a senate race this year.)

One governor who did struggle a bit is Kathy Hochul in New York. It's worth noting that this is her first time running for Governor. The NYS Democratic party had a bad night. Hochul can expect to be governor for as long as she wants, but she will have to grow into the job a little bit and not let the narrative around crime dominate the discussion next time. But her bigger task is to reform the state Democratic party with an emphasis on getting the Cuomo holdouts to get on board and let go of what their boss did to himself. This will not be as easy as it should be. Control of the House of Representative just might depend on it.

It appears that the California Democratic party also underperformed in some House races. Two there and 2 in New York could have kept the House blue, but that was always a long shot. 

3. Americans Like Democracy. 

The most heart-warming story of election night is that election deniers lost in every secretary of state election across the country. Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada were all in real peril of nominating someone who was very unlikely to certify the presidential election if a Democrat carried their state. The 2024 election will be far from perfect but it seems likely that every state will certify whatever candidate gets the most votes. And that makes all the difference.

4. Biden's Favorability Ratings are Deceptive.

The biggest reason that most pundits expected a Red Wave is that Joe Biden's job approval numbers have been underwater ever since he made the decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.

The 538 average has him at 42 approval, 53 disapproval. That number should have meant disaster for Democrats. But they held their own. 

I think some people disapprove of Joe Biden simply because he is old. They wish he was younger and snappier at press conferences. They suspect he has lost a step. But it is equally true that they like his policies. And I suspect in 2024 they will prefer him to the alternative, but more on that later. 

II. What Does This Mean for 2024?

A. The Primaries.

The day after the election, two story lines sunk their hooks into the Zeitgeist: Biden was going to be the Democratic nominee (correct) and DeSantis was going to beat Trump for the GOP nomination. (unlikely).

1. Yes, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee, assuming he is still alive and well. He is really fucking good at politics. The institutional party has figured this out. Look at the job he just did in keeping the Senate and nearly holding the house.  

He end our longest war. He rallied the world to the cause of Ukraine. And our economy is better off than most of the world. Some of these things may change in time to hurt him in the general election, but they will not prevent him from sailing to the nomination. 

2. Ron DeSantis is the biggest threat to Trump in the Republican primary but he is a clear underdog. 

DeSantis can probably convince a whole bunch of rich people that he is Trumpism without Trump. They will write him large checks because most of those guys (and all of their wives) find Trump to be personally ridiculous. They also now know that he's not terribly popular with swing voters and has terrible political instincts. (The GOP might have won GA and PA senate seats if Trump didn't big foot on behalf of terrible candidates there.)

3. Beating Trump in the 2024 Primary is a Booby Prize. Does anyone think that Trump will graciously accept losing the nomination to DeSantis?  If so, you have not been paying attention for the past seven years. He will either try to mount a desperate third party campaign or merely discourage his followers from supporting whoever "stole" the nomination from him. 

If Ron DeSantis wants to be president, he should wait for 2028. He can serve out the rest of his term, nominally support Trump from the sidelines and then enter the presidential race to be held two months after he turns 50. He can be a rich ex-two term president before he is 60. So the real question is, is Ron DeSantis smart enough to know this or too anxious for his own good?  He has been awfully quiet since the election That's probably best for him. He can let Trump suck up some oxygen for a few months and decide in the spring. 

I suspect he is getting a lot of calls from people telling him to announce or else they will declare for some other candidate. That will have some influence. But most of the field are light weights. He's not going to lose to Nikki Haley or Rick Scott. The only thing he has to worry about is a large field of 10 or 12 candidates forming and allowing Trump to get the nomination by winning pluralities in the key states. 

4. Keep an eye on Brian Kemp of Georgia. He beat Stacey Abrams by eight points and got more than 200,000 more votes than Herschel Walker did in the senate race. He has a much more credible story to tell as a post-Trump candidate than Ron DeSantis will.  If I'm a Republican primary voter in 2024, I might just decide that any Republican can win Florida but Kemp is the best chance of picking up Georgia. 

B. The General Election. 

A lot can change in 100 weeks, but I expect the election will probably be won or lost in just four states:  Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. Of course it's possible that either party could have a good or terrible campaign and the election will be a modest blowout. But we are still mostly working with a hybrid of the 2012 and 2016 maps.  

1. The Trump 2016 States. 

a. Florida, Iowa and Ohio have been pretty consistently Republican since then.  I think they are likely go Republican in a close 2024 election.

b. Pennsylvania and Michigan have been trending blue since then. I think they will probably go Democratic in a close 2024 election.

c. Wisconsin has been a swing state, including an incumbent Democratic governor and an incumbent Republican senator just a few weeks ago-both by close margins. It could go either way in a close 2024 election.

2. The Biden 2020 States.

Biden won back PA, MI & WI in 2020. He also hung on to NV and flipped Georgia and Arizona.

d. Georgia and Arizona are closely divided states. This year the Republican party squandered good opportunities in AZ-Gov, AZ-Ssen and GA-Sen by running terrible candidates. Brian Kemp trounced Stacy Adams in GA-Gov. And he will easily carry the state if he is the Republican nominee in 2024. But the state is moving leftward and will be competitive in 2024. (Kemp being on the ticket as vice-president would help the GOP too, but not by as much as him being at the top of the ticket.)  Arizona will be competitive in 2024 no matter who is on the respective tickets.

e. Nevada. 

Nevada elected a Republican governor this years but stayed blue in the senate. The Dems have won NV four straight times. But the margin in each of the last two presidential elections was 2.4%. This state will be competitive but because it only has six electoral votes, it is less likely to be decisive than the others.

3.  Electoral College Math. 

The picture at the top of this post is what I think the map will probably look like going into election night 2024. I give MI and PA to the Dems. FL, OH, IA & NC to the Republicans. The second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska are both in play.

 Our starting point is Democrats 259, Republicans 234. To win, the Democrats will need:

1. Georgia (16 electoral votes) 

~or~

2. Arizona (11 EV).

~or~

3. Wisconsin (10 EV) plus Nevada (6 EV)

~or~

4. Wisconsin (10 EV)  plus NV-2 and/or ME-2. 

That's what a close election looks like. Joe Biden needs to string together 11 EV from the 45 EV available in competitive races. Here's my first crack of the probability of winning for various likely match-ups.

1. Biden beats Trump 80%.

2. Biden beats DeSantis 65%.

3. Biden beats Kemp 52%.

4. Harris beats Trump 55%.

5. DeSantis beats Harris 55%.

6. Kemp beats Harris 75%.

III. Predictions Report Card.

Allow me to be a little wonky and to review the predictions I made just before the midterms. Accountability and all-that.

First Prediction: The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.

To be specific, I said the house would turn out 228R, 207D.  (Republicans gain 14 seats.)

It looks like the final result will be 222R, 213D. That's a gain of eight instead of 14. But I think I got the gist of it. 

I mostly avoided talking about specific house races, although this one will haunt me for a while: 

"Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite." Oh, how I wish I was wrong about that. But it looks like she will pull out this race by about 500 votes. And her opponent will be swimming in money next time around.

For the record, I do expect Kevin McCarthy to be the next Speaker. A few hardliners are talking him down but I don't think they can convince a majority to rally behind some other nutter.

GRADE: B+

Second Prediction: Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.

To be specific, I said the Senat would be 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.  

Here I did get specific on a few races. 

a. Arizona: Dems win. Kelly 51, Masters47. (Nailed it!)

b. Georgia goes to a runoff.  Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48. (Nearly nailed it. It wound up Warnock 49, Walker 48.)

c. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49, (Another virtual bullseye. The result was 49-48. I'll take it.)

d. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1. (Well I got the result right, but the margin was much larger than I expected, 51 to 46.)

e. Wisconsin   Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. (Actual result 50.5 to 49.5. So Barnes did about a point better than I expected.)

f.  Ohio.  Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6.  (Actual result 53-47. So Vance did a couple points better than I expected but I wasn't too far off. And Ryan did well enough to drag a couple House seats over the line for the Democrats there. They were only supposed to get three or four seats. They got five.)

g.  North Carolina.  Budd 51, Beasley 47. (Actual result: Nailed it! Bullseye! Huzzah!)

h. New Hampshire.  Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 (Actual result, 54 to 44. My biggest miss in margin. I should have known Bolduc was going to do poorly but I still think of NH as vaguely right wing. The Boston Exurbs may have finally fixed this.) 

So I was Eight for Eight in Results. My Democratic margins were off by 0, -2, -4, -1, +3, 0, -6. That's an average bias of 1.25 points in favor of the GOP.  (Can't accuse me of Homerism this year.)

I was also right in saying that IA, CO & WA would not be as close as some polls suggested.

GRADE: A.

Third Prediction: Governor Races: Treading Water, But Look at the Margin.

a. "The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes."

(Actual Result- 7 for 7 although the Hochul polls don't seem quite so funny now. She won by six and the Dems underperformed down ballot in NYS.)

b.  Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly. (Actual Results: Four out of five ain't bad but I have to own up to missing OK big.)

c. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.

(Actual Results: Happy to say I was only one for three here. Holding on to Kansas was great news, and it makes up for the loss in OK. Nevada was close)

GRADE: B.