Michitahsouridahadcuper Tuesday

In keeping with my half-assed approach to following and forecasting the 2024 presidential primaries, here is a look back at Michigan and several unimportant states, with a view toward tomorrow's "Super Tuesday" action.  

I. Michigan- GOP.

My final call was  "So let's go with Trump 72%, Haley 27%, Others 1."

The final result was Trump 68, Haley 27, Others: 5.

So I nailed Haley's number but underestimated how popular "Uncommitted" is in this state. Uncommitted got a full 3 points and the dropouts combined for 2 percent, including DeSantis who got 1.2%.

Giving myself an A-. 

II. Michigan -Democratic

My final call was "So let's go with: Biden 76% Uncommitted 15% Phillips 7% Williamson 2%."

The final result was: Biden 81, Uncommitted 13, Williamson 3 and Phillips 3.

I short-changed Biden, slightly over estimated Uncommitted, slept on Marianne's enduring popularity on the fringe and comically over-estimated Phillips, who is a loser.

Let's call it a B+. I was close on the important candidates.

III. Missouri, Utah, Michigan (convention) and DC-GOP only.

Since last Tuesday, four other contests gave out delegates to the Republican convention. Trump swept the delegates given on Saturday (126 of them) and then Haley won all 19 delegates from Washington DC by getting 1,274 votes from various trust fund babies and congressional staffers while Trump only managed to get 676 votes from lobbyists and the relatives of January 6th inmates.

Congrats to Nikki! She won't be shut out.

IV. State of the Race and Super Tuesday.

Both races are over. Biden and Trump will be the nominees of their parties and only a major health calamity can avoid a November rematch between these two altacockers.

I think Biden has performed slightly better than expectations. Michigan was the first place where he faced a coordinated opposition and it only managed to win 2 delegates. The 2024 DNC will be a coronation inside the United Center and probably a shit show outside on Madison street.

Trump has also done what he needs to do. He is sailing towards this nomination and is likely to all but clinch it after tomorrow's race. He currently has 244 delegates and will likely win 29 from the ND caucus today. That will put him about 950 delegates away from the 1,215 he needs to be the nominee.

V. My GOP predictions for tomorrow:

1. Vermont: Trump by 4. This is the only race tomorrow where Haley has a chance of winning, mostly because it still has a functioning moderate state GOP whose leaders have endorsed Haley. She is also helped by the fact that any registered voter can vote in the GOP primary.

The delegate math is interesting here because if either candidate gets a majority, they will get all 17 delegates. But Vermont is quirky so it's theoretically possible that the DeSantis/Christi voters could make a 49-45 result, which would split the delegates.

That said, I'm thinking Trump gets over 50% and thus all 17 delegates. But hey, Haley could make the state count 49-1 instead of 50-0 and that would piss off Trump, so I'm rooting for Nikki here.

2. Virginia: Trump by 12.  (Haley 5 delegates)

3. Minnesota: Trump by 27. (Haley 12 delegates)

4. Massachusetts: Trump by 23.  (Haley 6 delegates)

5. Colorado: Trump by 31.  (Haley 2 delegates)

6. Maine: Trump by 40.  

7. North Carolina: Trump by 44. (Haley 6 delegates)

8. Texas: Trump by 47. (Haley 4 delegates)

9. Alabama: Trump by 63.(Haley 2 delegates)

10. Alaska: Trump by 38. (Haley 8 delegates)

11. Tennessee: Trump by 54. (Haley 3 delegates)

12. Oklahoma: Trump by 66.

13. Arkansas: Trump by 70. (Haley 5 delegates).

270 to win has a great breakdown of the delegate allocation math for the Republicans. Just click on a state to check the numbers:  

https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/

So I'm saying Trump will go 13 for 13 and win the delegate haul by 812 to 53.

A good night for Haley looks like this: she wins Vermont. She keeps Virginia close and she gets over 75 delegates.

No matter how the voting goes, I expect her to make a Rubio style victory speech around 10PM eastern. On Wednesday we'll start to hear about staffers being let go. She'll suspend the campaign, either on Friday afternoon or during one last Sunday morning TV show. 

VI: My Democratic Predictions for Tomorrow.

Biden leads the current delegate count with 206. There are 2 Uncommitted delegates. Phillips and Williamson have exactly zero delegates.

There are 1,420 delegates at stake tomorrow and it's entirely possible that Biden will win over 1,400 of them.

A. Biden will win by very large margins and sweep the delegates in: California, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Utah

B. Uncommitted or some other candidate might win a delegate or two if they have a great night in a congressional district in: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Virginia

C. Phillips should win at least a couple delegates in: Minnesota

D.  Phillips and Williamson could win a delegate or two each in Iowa

A good night for Biden is 1,400 delegates. A good night for Phillips is over 10 delegates. A good night for Williamson is more than 2 delegates.

Like I said, the race is over. But the details will be fun to dissect. And after this, we'll be only eight months away from the general election.

New Hampshire-What Will We Learn?

 Iowa: What Did We Learn?

Very little. The result pretty much matched the polls. But a quick moment of self-reflection. Here are my predicted vote percentages for Iowa with the actual result in ( ). 

      Trump 53% (51%)

      Haley 21% (19%

      DeSantis 20% (21%)

      Ramaswamy: 5% (7.7%)

      Hutchinson: 1% (0.2%)

Pretty close, but I did have Haley in second and Ron in second. That didn't work out.  Give myself a B+.

New Hampshire: What to Expect.

We're about 14 minutes away from the results in Dixville Notch and that other stupid town up north. But that won't tell us much.

Since Iowa, The third, fourth and sixth place finishers have all dropped out. (Shout out Ryan Binkley who finished ahead of Asa Hutchinson in Iowa and then stayed on to fight in New Hampshire! Well done, weird nobody.)

DeSantis and Ramaswamy have both endorsed Trump. The polls this week suggest that most of their votes are going to go with Trump. He is a very heavy favorite to win and very well might run up a big margin.

But New Hampshire does have a contrarian streak. They don't like to vote for the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. And Trump had a few hiccups on the trail this week, so maybe he won't quite crush it.  There also could be some Democrats voting in the Republican race to just drag it out a little longer.

Here's my official prediction:

Donald Trump: 54.1%

Nikki Haley       43.9%

Binkley                0.5%

Others:                 1.5%  (Strays for Christie, DeSantis, etc.)

What Does Haley Need?

To even dream about being the nominee, she needs a win. She's not getting that. But if she can get 45% of the vote, than she might be tempted to hang in there a little longer and see if the donor class keeps her afloat just in case DJT strokes out in the next month.

If she loses by more than 15, she probably drops out tomorrow night or Wednesday morning. The humiliation of losing South Carolina to Trump would be too much to bare. (And the donor class won't waste their money on her.

What About the Dems?

There is a Democratic Primary tomorrow too but it won't be sending any delegates to Chicago and Joe Biden isn't on the ballot.

That said, there's like 25 other people in the ballot and no small number of Granite Staters are pissed off that the Democratic party took away their monopoly on being the first in the nation primary. So this number could be interesting.

Biden will win and he should do so with an outright majority. If he doesn't, and Nikki Haley drops out, the media will try to make the Democratic race feel competitive. (It isn't.)

But once again in the breach, here I go:

Joe Biden: 64.3%

Dean Phillips: 16.7%

Marianne Williamson: 8.2%

The other weirdoes and spoiled ballots will be like 10%.

Ooooh, Dixville Notch and Hart's Crotch are going to be announcing in a minute.....

2024 Begins (Iowa Caucuses)

 Tonight some modest number of Iowans will brave sub zero temperatures and lumber their way to fire houses and gymnasiums to begin the formal process of picking the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. His name is Donald Trump.

But four other bozos are trying to upset him. So let's play along. Here is my official prediction for tonight:

      Trump 53%

      Haley 21%

      DeSantis 20%

      Ramaswamy: 5%

      Hutchinson: 1%.

So there will be something to watch for tonight-the battle for second place. If DeSantis doesn't win second, he will have to give some consideration to dropping out. But I suspect he will stay around for awhile. Hutchinson will probably drop out tonight. Ramaswamy has nothing better to do with his time.

So what happens next?

New Hampshire, of course. There have been some polls that showed NH being more competitive than Iowa. If you squint, you can convince yourself that Nikki Haley will make it close. Maybe only lose by ten points. New Hampshire does have a history of rejecting Iowa's winner. And there will be some number of Democrats who choose to vote for her since the Democratic primary is not sanctioned by the party and Joe Biden isn't even on the ballot there.

 But Trump's going to win. Probably by closer to 20 points than to ten.

Then the race turns to South Carolina. Nikki MUST win there to even pretend she can beat Trump. If she loses her home state, (and I expect she will), then she'll be out of the race promptly.

In a normal year, there wouldn't be any candidates left to run against Trump. But, this year, there's this other thing.

This Other Thing.

Donald Trump is facing four separate criminal trials: one in New York that no one cares about, one in Florida that the judge is set on delaying as much as possible, one in Georgia that is complicated by the number of co-defendants and one in Washington DC that is set to being on March 4th.

I think there's a chance that one or more Republicans will stay in the race even after getting drubbed in the early primaries because they will know that chaos is likely to come and they will want to grab as many delegates as possible before that happens.

Trump is desperate to get this trial delayed. And he might succeed. But I think it will go, if not on March 4th than sometime before May. If that trial goes, he is very likely to be convicted of at least one felony. That would normally get him him thrown of the Republican ticket but the Republican party in 2024 is anything but normal. Trump will appeal his conviction and cry foul, as he always does when he faces a setback. By April 2nd, more than 3/4 of the delegates will have been awarded but a conviction would leave at least some doubt on the identity of the nominee. 

One or the other-an acquittal or a persistent march through to the required delegate number, Donald Trump will be the nominee. He will not get out of the race gracefully. He controls the party apparatus thoroughly enough he will ward off any legal or technical challenges.

I suspect that no later than June 1st, the world will realize that Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for President on Election Day, 2024. 

Meanwhile....

Meanwhile Joe Biden will safely, surely move his way through the primaries. Dean Phillips might do some numbers in New Hampshire, since Biden's name isn't on the ballot. But that won't move the needle and Joe Biden will vacuum up most of the delegates elsewhere. By May, the electorate will finally accept what has been obvious to anyone since November of 2020-Joe Biden will be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024.

He certainly deserves to be. He has been a great president, both domestically and on foreign policy. He got important and productive legislation passed at home. And he has stood for America's commitment to Democracy and our alliances abroad. It's been over two years since an American service member lost their life in foreign combat. But NATO is stronger than ever. Russia looks week and despite some caterwauling from the Tiktokigentsia, he made the right decision to support Israel's right to defend itself against the brutality unleashed by Hamas on October 7th.

And oh yeah, a year ago most economists thought we would be in a recession by now. We ain't. In fact, the economy is growing great, job growth has been incredible and real wages are up. If this is news to you, you need better news sources. Because the media narrative has been quite different and the zeitgeist of the electorate seems to be "Economy Good when Gas Prices Low" which is exceptionally stupid.

The General.

Biden's success does not assure him of an easy election. His age is a negative. The public is weary of the situations in Ukraine and Israel. Many voters are not sophisticated enough to understand that Biden's policies have been principled and productive. They just want the world to be safe and normal, as long as it doesn't cost them anything to achieve that.

But sometime this summer, or early fall, the American people will realize that they have only two choices for President. I expect that gradual realization to favor Joe Biden. Because the other choice is a raging doofus. For all the talk of Joe Biden's age, Donald Trump seems to be older, more frail and in generally bad health. He's also nuts. Like, really, really nuts. Talk to the Pepsi machine at the laundromat nuts.

That doesn't mean he can't win. In fact he has a plan to do just that. His job is to convince people that every problem in the world is Joe Biden's fault. His biggest assets are the migrants who are showing up at the border every day and being promptly bussed to cities that Trump wants to make look bad. Those cities are legitimately straining at the burden. I doubt that House Republicans will agree to any package of compromises that allow improvement in this situation. (To be clear, yes I believe the Republican party is intentionally setting out to let many thousands of poor people make their way to this country so they can be dumped out on the street and make Joe Biden look bad. If this works, the first people to suffer will be those very unfortunates who are currently being used as pawns in this game.)

This Shit Can Work.

Four Years Ago when I did my first post about that election, I declared the race a dead heat. I said Biden lead in 268 electoral votes and Trump in 260. My best guess was that Wisconsin would determine the winner. That was before COVID-19. By April I said that Biden was the modest favorite to win. 

That's about where I am right now. It's customary to say something about "if the election were held today." But the election is not being held today or a week from now. A large swathe of the electorate still thinks that a bunch of farmers in Iowa tonight and another bunch of Boston suburbanites will get together this month to hand them choice more palatable than Biden and Trump. But that will not happen.

Both parties are sticking with their choice from last time. Neither party thinks that is ideal, but both think it is better than the alternatives. For Democrats, they have to run on Biden's record. Not nominating him would make that suspect. And incumbency is powerful while competitive primaries are usually fatal for the incumbent party. For Republicans, the majority of their membership simply love Trump for what he represents a rich guy who is proud of his own ignorance. He also gives legitimacy to their prejudices and simplistic solutions.

This campaign will be ugly. Trump will try to make Americans afraid of immigrants and foreign allies and taxes and math. Biden will beat the drums of abortion rights, prosperity and the importance of remaining committed to democracy here and abroad.

Biden is vulnerable, as is every incumbent to world events. A terrorist attack, a disruption of shipping lanes or a huge setback in Ukraine would make him look weak and his foreign policy look like a failure.

I'll do my first official forecast after the first few primaries. But if I had to bet right now, Biden will win the popular vote by three or four points. I don't see him expanding the electoral map. Maine's 2nd congressional district and North Carolina are his only really plausible pickup opportunities. He very well could love Georgia and/or Arizona. Some think Nevada will go red, but I think Trump's negatives will keep that home. Let's say Biden 293, Trump 245. 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

Felina (The Road to 270, Take 16)

                                                            The final Spider Stumbled forecast.

Things are tense. About 2/3rd of the votes have been cast. But none have been counted. The experts favor Joe Biden heavily but the Trump base is making ample shows of support, ranging from obnoxious to really, very obnoxious. Even though Biden's national lead is comfortable the result is not quite certain. The race has not tightened much in the last month, but Trump has not completely collapsed either.  I can reasonably see Biden getting as few as 238 Electoral Votes or as many as 413.  This morning Dave Wasserman of Cook Political report Tweeted this morning that "the line between ~290 and ~400 EVs for Biden is astonishingly thin." 

There's not much you can do now, except to worry. Take comfort in the fact that Joe Biden's lead is roughly double the size of the lead Hillary Clinton had on election eve 2016. Tomorrow night, there will be news to watch and results to decipher.  I will try here to explain how the night might go and the implications of how specific state might affect the final outcome.

The night will start well for the Republicans. Trump will get Indiana and Kentucky early. Biden will get Vermont. People who do not follow this stuff closely will lament the score of 19-3. None of this matters though.  We probably won't get any meaningful state calls until later in the evening.  Truth is, there are only five states that will tell us anything about who is going to win the election

I. The Five States That Will Decide the Race.

Florida (29 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), and Arizona (11) are all close and have enough electoral votes to put a candidate over the top. About 63% of the time, on of these five states will be the tipping point according to Nate Silver, but I suspect that number is even higher if we only look at scenarios with close outcomes.

For all of these scenarios, I used the fabulous tool on 538.com and assumed that Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan.

If Trump sweeps all five states, he will almost certainly be re-elected. Even if you assume that Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump wins 97% of the time. Conversely, if Biden sweeps, he is lock to be President.

The good news for Biden is that he doesn't need to sweep or even come close to a sweep. If Biden wins just one of the Big Five he has a good chance of winning.  If he wins PA or FL, he is a more than 90% chance to win.  And if he wins any two of the Big Five, he has at least a 95% of winning.  

I made this handy chart around noon today using the 538 tool to help you visualize what the various Big Five combinations mean for the election chances. 

FL	PA	GA	NC	AZ	BIDEN WIN %	BIDEN AVG EV
TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	2%	252
TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	34%	267
TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	55%	272
TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	33%	267
TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	94%	279
BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	90%	282
TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	314
TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	96%	294
TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	99+%	298
BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	99+%	299
TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	95%	290
TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	99+%	305
BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	98%	30
TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	99%	297
BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	98	298
BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	99+%	311
TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	95%	290
TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	325
BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	324
BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	99+%	327
BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	99+%	3347
BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	99+%	329
BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	99+%	333
BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	99+%	335
BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	99+%	371
BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	99+%	357
BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	361
BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	329
TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	350
BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	404

 

If Biden wins at least two of these fives states, he is probably well on his way to victory. But the size and significance of the margin can vary.

II. The Three States That Will Decide The Scale.

If you want to really simplify your viewing tomorrow night, keep an eye on three states: Texas, Pennsylvania and Florida.  If Trump sweeps them, he is favored to win.  But if he doesn't sweep them, Biden almost certainly wins and he might run up a big score.

TX	FL	PA	BIDEN WIN %	BIDEN AVG EV
TRUMP	TRUMP	TRUMP	23%	261
TRUMP	TRUMP	BIDEN	98%	299
TRUMP	BIDEN	TRUMP	98	303
BIDEN	TRUMP	TRUMP	99+%	321
BIDEN	TRUMP	BIDEN	99+%	361
TRUMP	BIDEN	BIDEN	99+%	348
BIDEN	BIDEN	TRUMP	99+%	360
BIDEN	BIDEN	BIDEN	95%	412

III. The Three Races That Will Be Close But Probably Won't Tip the Election. 

Texas is huge and the polling is close this time but if Biden wins there, he probably has states to spare. 

Most polling in Iowa have it close, but Trump did get one very good poll from the Des Moines register over the weekend. As I play with the math, I don't see Iowa putting either candidate over the top in a close race.  Maine's 2nd congressional district is also likely to be close but unless it happens to be EV number 269 for Trump or 270 for Biden, it won't matter.

If you see early calls in any of these races, it is a good sign that the winning candidate is on his way to a good night.

 IV. The Forecasts. 

1. FiveThirtyEight. Biden is at 89 percent, up two from a week ago. Biden gets 351 EV. In the closing weeks, Iowa, Texas and Georgia have flipped between red and blue multiple times. Right now they have TX being closer than IA.  

2. The Economist. Biden is at 96 percent, up from 95 percent a week ago. They have Biden winning 350 Electoral Votes- down from 355 last week.

3. Sabato Crystal Ball. Biden 321, Trump 217, up from Biden 290, Trump 248. They waited until today to make a call in every race. They pushed NC and GA to Biden, FL OH and IA to Trump. Their statement on FL was a little-wishy-washy but I respect that they made a call.

4. 270 to Win. Biden 290, Trump 163, Toss-up 85. Unchanged. They might make final calls over night, but they have been on this number for at least three weeks.

5. JHK Forecasts. Biden at 90.3%, Up from 88.3% last week. (I told you things were stable.)  They have Biden winning 351 votes. 

6. Plural Vote. . Biden at 65.5%. That's down 2.9% from last week. By average outcome of each competition, their map is Biden 319, Trump 219. But their most common outcome is Biden 312, Trump 232. I think that's the Sabato 290 plus GA and IA. 

Their methodology is a little different. They give weight to Internet search activity. If the race winds up being closer, this method will be validated. But even they have Biden as a roughly 2 to 1 favorite.

7. Betting Markets. Predictit has Biden up 59.3%-40.7%. That's down 0.7 percent from last week. The map is now 290-248, the old Sabato/270 map.

 The international markets listed on Real Clear Politics favor Biden 64.6% to 35.4%. That is virtually unchanged from a week ago.

 V. A Wish List. 

This is what I want to see happen, in order.

1. Defeat Donald Trump.

2. A Democratic Senate.

3. An orderly process without too many court battles or rat-fucking.

4. Biden wins at least one state that the Democrats have not won in this century.  (AZ and GA are our best chances.)

5. Defeat Lindsey Graham. (I wouldn't bet on it, but Jamie Harrison has a chance.)

6. Steve Bullock win the MT-Senate race.

A Few Long Shots worth rooting for:

1. A Blue Texas. It will change how we feel about the divisions in this country.

2. Doug Jones keeps his senate seat. He never once failed to take the tough important votes that the Dems needed for him. He's probably going to lose by 10, but if he does I hope he gets to be ambassador to Aruba.

3. Mike Espy wins in Mississippi.

4. Joe Biden wins Montana.  It's a reach, but I could see it happening on a great night.

5. The defeat of John Cornyn in Texas.

6.  Democrats win at least one of the GA senate seats without needing a run-off.

I'd love to put Mitch McConnell losing here but I think that ship has sailed. 

VI. My Final Map.

Last week I moved Biden back to 91%. I remain very confident, but I will note that Trump's base has not collapsed, which is something that seemed possible a few weeks ago.  Turnout will be massive. That favors Biden, but there is an element of uncertainty when unseen numbers of votes are in play.  I give Joe Biden an 88% chance of winning the election.

I'm keeping my map unchanged for the third straight week. Biden 351, Trump 187. As for the popular vote:

Candidate	Now	Now	10/26	10/19	10/12
Biden	52.62%	0.18	52.44%	52.36	52.55
Trump	45.21%	0.18	45.03%	45.02	45.19
Jorgensen	1.47%	-0.25	1.72%	1.76	1.66
Hawkins	0.62%	0	0.62%	0.65	0.65
Other	0.08	-0.11	0.19%	-0.2	0.19