The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

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A Framework for the 2024 Presidential Election

Don't call it a Morning Line. It is too early for that. But Joe Biden has been president for six full months. That is 1/8th of his term. That is 1/4 of the portion of his term before Republicans start declaring their intention to replace him and become the 47th President of the United States. 

And we have learned a few things about him and the state of politics in the Republican party to make some observations about what is likely to happen between now and three years from this month, when the parties are holding their conventions. 

This is a big-picture conceptualization of how 2024 might go. I want to lay down a few assumptions here and then get into some hypotheticals. A lot will change between now and then, but I think it's helpful to discuss a few fundamentals about the election at this stage. The short version is that I think the next election will feature the same candidates as last time and will have a similar result.  The long version follows below. 

 I. Joe Biden is very likely to be the Democratic nominee. 

Joe Biden will be in his 80s when his first term ends. A lot of people seem to think that he will not run for a second term. I find that highly unlikely, for the following reasons. 

A. Presidents like being president. You know who was the last president to be elected and then voluntarily decide not to run for a 2nd term? James K. Polk in 1848. Anyone ambitious and confident enough to run for president has a pretty solid ego. Winning only reinforces that instinct. And presidents are surrounded by people who tell them they are doing a great job. Every single one of them believes it. There is no reason to think Joe Biden will be the exception. He's going to run because the alternative is unthinkable. For God's sake Polk died three months after his term ended. Retirement is no substitute for being the President. 

B. Incumbency Helps. Being president helps with everything from fundraising to setting the narrative. There is no campaign plane as impressive as Air Force One and no rolodex like the one that would be on the Resolute Desk if people still used Rolodexes. One of the reasons the 2020 election was closer than the polls suggested it would be is that some unexpected voter blocks gave Trump the benefit of the doubt. This happens to just about every president. The thinking is that if we've survived one term with any given fella, we can probably survive two.  A distressing number of people felt that way about the previous president, no matter how terrible he was. 

Since World War 2, sitting presidents have won eight times and lost only four times. One of those four was Gerry Ford, who was appointed to the Vice-Presidency rather than elected. The presidents who lost a second term are remembered as some of the worst presidents we ever had. If Biden has any success at all, the institutional party will want to run him again and the causal voter will be inclined to choose him. 

C. He Probably Won't Face a Primary Challenger. Biden has managed to keep his centrist identity but has achieved a lot of progressive policy goals. The expanded income tax credit alone will probably be enough to make most of the left wing stay on the bench. Bernie Sanders is too old to run for a first term. AOC is too young. Any other plausible candidate knows that starting a serious campaign against an incumbent president is political suicide. They will sit this out. 

D. He is a better political option than Kamala Harris. I have talked to people who think that Biden is a caretaker president. Because of his age and the changing demographics of his party, he will step aside after one term and endorse his vice-president. But I don't see it happening. No one in the party will accept that endorsement as a coronation, which means a contested primary. That's a huge distraction and squanders the advantages of being the incumbent party. 

Vice-President Harris has not had a breakout moment to claim the spotlight. She is being a good and faithful Vice-President. She knows that she will be the heavy favorite for the nomination in 2028 and she can afford to be patient at her age. To be blunt about it-Donald Trump would much rather run against Kamala Harris than Joe Biden. She is not a great or even natural politician. She is serving her president well and that will probably be rewarded down the line. But it's not enough to jump the queue.

II. Donald Trump is EXTREMELY likely to be the Republican nominee. 

Donald Trump has spent the last six months perseverating of the result of the last election. He is actively involved with defending the rioters who tried to prevent the peaceful transition of power in our democracy. And he remains overwhelmingly the most popular figure in the Republican party. 

He is almost certain to be the Republican nominee, for the following reasons. 

 A. He's got nothing better to do. The first rule of thinking about Trump is to remember that it IS about Trump. And the common mistake that people make when thinking about presidential candidates is to pretend they are normal people. None of them are. They want power and glory in ways that very few people can relate to. 

A lot of people thought the loss of an election would cow Trump into a life away from the spotlight. Such people do not understand the brain of a true narcissist. Trump is incapable of believing he lost anything fair and square, so his brain has erected the defense mechanism needed to convince himself that he was robbed. This aggrieved act is based on certifiable nonsense and bullshit. But it is enough to keep his ego afloat., in part because the entire Republican apparatus in the media and in Congress has lined up behind his delusions.    

He is going to run because he loves attention and the only thing that can match the attention of running for president is being president. Donald Trump will happily run in a primary. He will have his center modicum for all the debates. All of the news outlets will go back to taking him seriously and give him the coverage he needs. Twitter and Facebook might even let him have his accounts back. 

B. He has cleared the field by emasculating all his rivals. 

For five years, the most important endorsement in Republican politics has been Donald J. Trump. The vast majority of Republican office holders have lived in fear of Trump turning on them. He has turned his back on anyone who does not share his belief that the last election was stolen. Even Mike Pence, as loyal a lap-dog #2 as the world have ever seen, is now persona non grata in Trumpland. The Rubios and Cruzes of the world have forfeit any attempt to credibly run against Trump in a primary. Nikki Haley, among others, has said she won't even run if Trump runs.

Of course, he will have primary opponents. There will be a nominal Never Trump candidate-Larry Hogan of Maryland will probably run. Maybe Liz Cheney will try to settle some scores if she loses next year's Republican primary for her House seat. And there will be a couple plausible candidates who at least put a toe in the water in the hopes that Trump doesn't run. Ted Cruz is so damn ambitious that he might just sign up for another round of humiliation. Like Trump, he has nothing better to do with the next 3 years of his life. But no one can beat Donald Trump in a Republican presidential primary. Off the top of my head, this is what the 2024 Iowa Cacuses might look like. Trump 53%, Cruz 19%, Hogan 14%, Cheney 4%. Rubio and Haley and a few other dumb-dumbs can fight for the scraps. If Donald Trump runs for the nomination, and doesn't die in the first half of 2024, he will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. 

C. Beating Donald Trump in a Republican Primary is a Booby Prize.

Let's pretend that Donald Trump is somehow chastened by his loss to Joe Biden. That he has some scintilla of reluctance to run again. Maybe he dawdles for another year-never declaring his candidacy and letting some others explore their options in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Maybe he even in fit of pique says that he will not run or may not run.

So the field fills up. The Hogans and Cruz' and maybe a Kasich or two decide to run. The filed takes shape. Polls start to be taken and DeSantis or Cruz looks strong.  Trump has some personal distractions-an indictment or a divorce or a fun new project somewhere. All of a sudden, people are talking about DeSantis as the better candidate.  So Trump waits and waits. The first debate happens and he's not on stage. That will be enough to snap him back into it.

He can't resist the attentions. He can't let the Republican party love someone else they way they once loved him.  So he declares after all. Maybe right before Iowa. By then a lot of talent has signed up in other camps. Cruz and DeSantis are both pros-they raise a lot of money.  Somehow, some way, they deprive Trump of a majority of delegates and agree to run together in order to lock down the nomination.

How do you think Trump reacts to that? Graciously?  Please. He will whine and bitch like the whiny bitch that always has been.  He may or may not run third party but he definitely spends the summer and fall shitting on the people who beat him. The people who conspired against him. 

Maybe he runs third party and turns the legitimate nominee into Taft '12. Or maybe he just sits on the sidelines and his minions stay out of the rigged election, this time for good. 

Trump is going to be the Republican nominee because he is the only person that controls enough Republican voters to affect the general election outcome and enough spite to use them against the Republican party.  The party is his possession. 

Now that my assumptions are on the table, let's turn to some probabilities. 

III. Democratic Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Joe Biden Will Run for a 2nd Term	96%
Joe Biden will be Nominated again.	90%
Kamala Harris will be the Nominee	5%
Neither Biden nor Harris will be the nominee.	5%

    

Caveats & Context: 

Only a health problem will prevent Joe Biden from running. At his age, that is a non-negligible probability. But he is tall and trim and has no history of alcohol or tobacco use. The actuary charts like his chances of making it well beyond 2024 and even 2028.  But things happen. If Biden doesn't run, it could mean that Kamala Harris is the incumbent. At minimum, she will be the heavy favorite and presumptive heir.  

If Biden were to simply decline to run, than Harris would still be the favorite for the nomination. But she would face a competitive primary. Andrew Cuomo would run. Sherrod Brown could make a strong run. People will talk up AOC, but I think she's too smart to do that now. (She turns 35 in 2024.)

IV. Republican Primary Probabilities.

Event	Probability
Donald Trump Will Run for a 2nd Term	95%
Donald Trump Will Be Nominated Again	94%
Ron DeSantis Will Be The Nominee	3%
Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the Nominee	3%

Caveats & Context:

Trump will run if he is physically capable. I know some people fantasize about him being prosecuted and incarcerated and therefor unable to run. But that is very unlikely. 

The Trump organization was recently indicted along with its Chief Financial Officer, Allen Weisselberg. Some have speculated that Wesselberg could flip on Trump and cooperate with the Feds. That certainly is possible. But even if that happened tomorrow, it would take time for Trump to be indicted. An indictment is not goin to prevent Donald Trump from running for president. It would just be a fundraising message for him.  And the sort of crimes that Trump would be accused of are not easy to prove. It would require a lengthy trial.  I do no think there is enough time for Trump to be indicted, tried, convicted and incarcerated before the Iowa caucus. It's just not going to happen.  (And for the record, I think it's unlikely he will ever be prosecuted for a crime. This one prediction, I will be quite happy to get wrong.)

If Trump doesn't run, Ron DeSantis is the obvious front-runner for the Republicans. He appeals to every large swatch of the party and he manages to sound Trumpian without being an obvious moron. He has the Yale/Harvard pedigree of Cruz and Hawley, but none of the childish need to impress the faculty lounge. Assuming he is re-elected in 2022, he would be the obvious Trump successor.

There is no obvious third choice for the Republican nomination. Pence probably alienated too much of the base by you know, believing in democracy for one day.  There will be plenty of runners, but I am inclined to believe that the nominee will be a white male. The only scenario where I see that not happening is some sort of crazy brokered convention where the grown-ups settle on Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. But the party of "Build that Wall!" chants is not going to fall in love with any brown candidates. That just will not happen.

So I think DeSantis is the obvious nominee if Trump doesn't run. The only way I do not see that happen is if something disastrous happens and he is not re-elected next year. Or maybe he wins but the election is close and that puts doubts in the minds of the party establishment. That could happen, so I leave room for the field. But just three percent.

V. General Election Probabilities.

General Election Probabilities	Probability
The Democrat Wins	60%
The Republican Wins	40%
Biden Beats Trump	51%
Trump Beats Biden	34%
Biden Beats DeSantis	8%
DeSantis Beats Biden	5%
Not-Biden beats Not-Trump	1.3%
Not Trump beats Not-Biden	0.7%

Caveats & Context:

Red states netted three electoral votes from the 2020 Census. If the 2024 election has the same exact result as 2020, the Democrats would win 303-235 instead of 306-232. But it's hard to come up with a scenario where these changes put either party over 270.  A lot of the changes cancel each other out.  (Montana's gain is West Virginia's loss, Oregon's gain is Illinoi's loss, etc.) 

The only changes among really competitive states are that MI and PA each lost one and NC gained one. 

Even starting with the dreadful 2016 result as a baseline, the Dems path remains unchanged. They start with 230 and need PA (19) Michigan (15) to get them to 264. They then need one more state to win- Wisconsin, Arizona or Georgia being most likely. 

I favor the Dems because incumbency is helpful and I think the Donald Trump shtick will have worn pretty thing on the average independent/moderate voter by the time that circus gets geared up again.

But nothing is in the bag.

Let's have some fun with specific head to head match-up.

VI. Head to Head Match-ups.

a. Biden vs. Trump. There is about an 85% of this being the match-up.

Biden's polling has been solid but not spectacular. The new wave of COVID cases is not helping, even though this wave is largely caused by people refusing to get vaccinated.  I am an optimistic person, so I think the vaccines will beat the new variants and by 2024 COVID-19 will be a marginal problem. But that's not guaranteed. Biden is also vulnerable if inflation stays high (most economists don't think it will), if the homicide rate climbs (it might) or if we enter 2024 in a recession. (Too soon to tell.)

That said, I favor Biden over Trump, comfortably. The result won't be radically different than 2020 but I think the margin will be a little wider as Biden benefits from being the incumbent and Trump's shtick wears thin on the marginal voters. 

Probability:  Biden wins 67% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-209.  He picks up NC but loses WI, in part because Trump has replaced Pence with Scott Walker.

b. Biden vs. DeSantis.  

This is an interesting possibility. DeSantis being the nominee means that he was re-elected governor of Florida in 2022 and he probably won by a clear margin.  That might make the Democrats skip Florida all together. So both parties would be free to spend a lot more money in the places that can actually decide the election. DeSantis will also have the advantage of not being in his eighties. 

This would be a very close election, assuming that Donald Trump is either dead or has given DeSantis his full-throated endorsement. 

Probability:  Biden wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 267-262. DeSantis claws back GA and AZ, but the northern wall holds for the Democrats. Trump begins saying "They should have nominated Ivanka."

c. Biden vs. Generic Republican.

Generic Republican might seem formidable now but any Republican who isn't Trump or DeSantis is probably a relative newcomer to the scene.  Cruz would get crushed. Rubio isn't up for it. The Haley or Tim Scott scenarios are far-fetched to me.

Probability:  Biden wins 60% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Biden wins 319-219. North Carolina goes blue.

The Harris scenarios are hard to handicap. Her being the nominee either means that she is the president or that Joe Biden has decided not to run for a second term. For today's purposes, we will assume she is running as an incumbent, because I thin that is more likely than Biden deciding not to run.

d. Harris vs. Trump:

Kamala Harris ran a bad campaign in 2020. She raised a lot of money and didn't even make it to Iowa. Nothing about her performance as vice-president has particularly helped or hurt her chances. 

But I think Trump would, for the 2nd time, benefit from the sexism that exists among a frightening percentage of voters. And he will not be shy about using her racial identity against her either. He could over play that, but sadly, he seems to know how to play those games better than most. I fear this scenario.

Probability:  Trump wins 55% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Trump wins 291-247.  Trump reassembles his 2016 map, save Michigan. President Trump then announce plans to sell Detroit to Canada.

e. Harris vs. Desantis.

DeSantis on paper is a better candidate than Trump. But we don't yet know if he will motivate the casual Trump voter to turn out on election day. I am guessing he would get enough of them out to win, but this would also be a close race.

Probability:  DeSantis wins 58% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: DeSantis wins 312-226. DeSantis reconstitutes the Trump map and adds Nevada for good measure.

f. Harris vs. Generic Republican.

Well, a lot has to go wrong for this scenario to play out. But I think this means the GOP had to go with their 3rd choice, and that's not good.

Probability:  Harris wins 57% of the time.

Official, way to early prediction: Harris wins 292-246.

g.  The Field.

Something terrible will have to happen for the Democrats to nominate someone other than Biden or Harris. That sort of means that Biden dies in the next year or so and then Harris has such a bad run as president that some shit head like Andrew Cuomo comes in and beats her in a primary.  

This is too remote to think about now. So I won't put numbers on it yet.

 

The Road to 270, Take Three

I last predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election seven weeks ago. Joe Biden remains the favorite, and by a wider margin than my last post. But there are 149 days until the election and a lot can go wrong.

The country is one week into a nationwide response to the horrific murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. The violence and property damage of the early nights seems to have crested, but we do not know how long these actions will last or what the full scale of the government's response will be. We also don't know if these events will lead to a major resurgence of COVID-19 cases. (Personally it seems likely to me, but the scale is hard to predict.)


I. The Fundamentals.

The economy is in the toilet and the streets are on fire.  Recent polling reflects these facts. The president is unpopular. More importantly he is incapable and uninterested in changing course. So Joe Biden is the favorite now.

II. The Variables.
A lot can happen in 21 weeks.

1.  The Death Count.   Seven weeks ago 38,664 Americans have died from COVID-19. Back then, I boldly predicted that "I think the death tally will be over 75,000 by election day." I also wrote that if the death count was "somehow under 60,000, [Trump] might be able to claim that with a straight face."

Today that number is 109,928. We're still losing close to 1,000 people a day. It seems inevitable that the cases and deaths will spike thanks to these protests, some of which were held in the cities with the biggest outbreaks in the world.  Trump's response will almost certainly be to blame any resurgence or even continued climb in the death count on the protests.

2.  The Democratic Ticket.  We still don't know who Biden will pick as his running mate but the field is definitely more narrow than it was last time I wrote.  (See a more detailed take below.)

3.  October Surprises.  Tara Reade's allegations have seem to have come and gone in terms of political potency.  It has now been established that she lied under oath about having a college degree. When this was exposed she doubled down on that lie and her attorney stopped representing her.  This has done enough damage to her credibility that I do not think she will be used against him, even by surrogate groups.

The Republicans have tried to make some hay out of a made-up controversy called "Obamagate" and they will certainly imply that Hunter Biden engaged in something nefarious in Ukraine.  But this is all weak sauce.  Joe Biden is a popular person in Washington and for the moment it looks like he won't have to worry about losing the election because of a scandal.

III. The Forecast.

My previous Electoral Map gave Biden 289 Electoral Votes and Trump 249 EVs.  That meant Biden holding every Hillary state plus winning PA, MI, WI and Arizona. I still believe he will win all of those states. And it's possible that the election will end up right there, because flipping any other state will require Biden to make a pretty significant improvement over Hillary's performance. But the polling has been good for Biden and I now thing that Biden is more likely than Trump to win these additional contests:

1. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
2. Florida
3. North Carolina.

I want to emphasize that I think all 3 of these races will be very close.

I am also moving Ohio from likely Republican to Lean Republican. I gave some thought to doing the same with Texas, but I can not pull that trigger yet.

I am also moving Michigan from likely Biden to safe Dem. (The most recent poll has Biden up there by 12 points. I don't think he will win by that much but I think it's unlikely he will lose there.)

So here is the new map:

The new official prediction is Biden winning 334 to 204.

IV. A Word About Running Mates.

There has been a lot of change here.  My previous first choice was Catherine Cortez-Masto. She took herself out of the running.  My previous second choice was Amy Klobuchar.  The events in Minnesota have effectively taken her out of the running. I suspected that she was Biden's first preference but I don't think he will take the risk of Trump using the Minneapolis police department against him.  So here are the remaining contenders:.

1. Kamala Harris. (#3 last time)The betting markets like her. And she's an obvious contender. She checks a lot of boxes and I think Biden likes her.  I think she is in many ways the safe pick-she won't alienate anyone and she has the right resume. I think that makes her most likely. But I also think she's somewhat uninspiring and I do think that Biden will ultimately make a personal choice. He wants someone that he believes is ready to take over if needed and that will align with his core values. I believe Harris does that.

If Harr is not the pick, it will be because someone else impressed Biden on a personal level, during the vetting process. I think he believes his friendship with Obama was an important part of what made that administration hum. He will look for something similar in his running mate.

2.  Val Demings. (#7).  Recent events have propelled her up these rankings. Her 20 year experience as a big city cop will be isolation against the inevitable claim that Democrats are anti-police. And every little bit helps in Florida. But she's in only her 2nd term in the house.  It's not quite  a "safe" pick but it's not hard for me to imagine Biden clicking with her during the interview process and going for it.

3. Tammy Baldwin (#4).  Wisconsin is very important.

4. Tammy Duckworth. (Unranked.)  Biden has to give her a long look. She is a woman of color and a decorated veteran.  She is also a dull public speaker but I think she can impress Biden with her story and their policy alignment.

5.  Susan Rice (Unranked) She's never won an election. That is a huge minus. But I think Joe Biden really likes her and will give her every consideration.  Picking her will kick the "Benghazi" nonsense back into gear, but I don't think that's a deal-breaker.

6. Gretchen Whitmer.  (#8)  I still think her resume is light but Biden has to consider her and being governor of the state that Trump won by the smallest margin is a big point in her favor.

7.  Keisha Lance-Bottoms. (Unranked)  The mayor of Atlanta has done great work lately and should be given every consideration. But she is a long shot.

9. Elizabeth Warren.  (#6)  I still think this is very unlikely but she has plenty of fans.

10. Stacey Abrams.  (#5).  I can't see picking a state legislator in this environment. It's too much of a stretch.

V.  Other Forecasts.

As I update this forecast, I'll try to compare where I stand relative to other projections.  Nate Silver has yet to release his general election forecast, but there are several other credible models out there so here is the first comparison:

1. Spider Stumbled: Biden 334, Trump 234. (Up from Biden 289, Trump 249.)  I will add that I think Biden's win probability is about 70% now.

2. JHK Forecasts.  Their median result is Biden 315, Trump 233.  (Up from 299 to 239).

If you award every state to the candidate who wins each state at least 50.0001% of the time, then the result is Biden 334, Trump 234 up from (Biden 318, Trump 220.)  (This would mean Biden winning Florida, which they give a 50.3% chance of happening, so basically a toss-up.)

They also run simulations, JHK has Biden winning 67.8% of the time. (Up from 60.4% when I last published.)

3. Predictit.  If you award the electoral votes in each state the result is: Biden 334, Trump 234 up from Biden 289, Trump 234, Toss-up 15. (North Carolina was the toss-up last time.) Their national betting line is Biden 54 cents, Trump 46 cents.

4. 270toWin.com.  I really like this site and have been following them since 2004. They have a broad definition of toss-up, which is probably accurate this far out from the election. Their current tally is Biden 232, Trump 204, Toss-up 102. This is unchanged from last time.  (They obviously have a broad definition of toss-up.

5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Prof. Sabato's forecast is unchanged from last time: Biden 248, Trump 233, Toss-up 57.

Midterms in Review

 I went to bed on Election Day thinking that Donald Trump had a pretty good night. I knew that the Democrats had won back the House of Representatives, but that was the bare minimum for what they needed to accomplish. That majority looked somewhat modest. More importantly, they were on track to lose four senate seats that they were defending without flipping any Republican seats. When I went to bed, there was even a chance that Scott Walker migth hang on for a third term as governor of Wisconsin.

 When morning came, I learned that Walker was out and that the Democrats had booted Dean Heller out of his senate seat from Nevada. And there was suddenly more than a little doubt about the outcomes in both Arizona and Florida. In the five days since then, it seems almost certain that the Arizona senate seat will be won by the Democrats. And Florida is not done counting yet, although I suspect that Bill Nelson will come up short. For purposes of this post, we'll assume that Democrats lost a net of two seats.

The other piece of happy news since Tuesday has been the steady drip of house races going blue. There are still 13 seats that have not been called by news outlets. Nate Silver estimates that ten of those 13 seats will wind up in the Democratic column. That will mean a net gain of 38 House seats.

First, A Word About Me.

 My official prediction was that the Democrats would gain 32 seats in the house. That was slightly pessimistic. The real number will be closer to 40. That's an impressive number by an reasonable measure. The Democratic majority will be about the same size that the Republican majority has been the last 2 years. It will be awhile before we have the final results but it appears that the Democrats have won most of the very close races, which means they put their resources in the right places in the right quanities. That is cause for optimism.

 My official senate prediction was a loss of one seat, but I broke that down into four categories of races.  The below passage is from the preidcitions post, which are in the maroon background. I've also added post-elections commentary in ALL CAPS BOLD. (So you know I'm serious.)

A.  One Likely Loss. The Dems will lose North Dakota. CORRECT

B.  Two True Toss-ups. The Dems will split Missouri and Florida. CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR, UNLESS NELSON PICKS UP 12,000 VOTES IN THE RECOUNT.

C. Three Lean Democrats.  The Dems will take 2 out of 3 among Indiana, Arizona and Nevada. CORRECT

D. Long Shots  The Dems could lose Montana, but I don't think they will. They could put an upset in Tennessee but I think they will come about 3 points shy there. Texas is hard for me to judge because I so badly want Ted Cruz to lose. CORRECT, ALTHOUGH TENNESSE WAS NOT AS CLOSE AS I HOPED. BREDESEN LOST BY 11, NOT THREE.

I came pretty close to getting this exactly right. Whatever Nelson's margin of defeat winds up being will also be the difference between me and a perfect night in the upper house. (Yes, I'm aware my model built in some fudge factor by grouping races. The truth is that I overestimated the Dems in Indiana, Tennesse and Missouri more than I did in Florida, but hey results are what matters.)

I also predicted that the Democrats would gain eight governor's mansions but I didn't specify which ones. It looks like the final number will be seven. I did think Gillum and Abrahms each had a chance to win, so I guess we can put the difference there. (Full disclosure: I spent less than 90 seconds working on my Governor predictions.)

I'll gve my self an A- on the predictions. And shake my fist at the design of the Broward County ballot for keeping me from having a truly impressive night.

Report Card Time.

In my election preview I created a somewhat vague grading scheme for how to evaluate the Democrats performance on the night. (I reserved F Scenarios for failing to win either house. We can skip that, thankfully.)

D Scenarios.  If the Democrats win one house but underperform in the other, then they have done the bare minimum to stay relevant to government. The most likely D scenario is a gain of 25 seats, giving them a razor-thin margin in the House, but they lose several of their senate seats and don't pick up any GOP seats.  So about 221 in the house and 46 or 47 in the Senate. Awful, but not technically a complete failure.  WE WELL EXCEEDED THAT IN THE HOUSE, BUT WILL PROBALY END UP WITH THAT TALLY IN THE SENATE.

C Scenarios.  If the Dems win at least 30 seats and don't lose more than one senate seat (net), they will get a gentleman's C. (C+ if they do well in the governor's race.)  TECHNICALLY WE'RE IN C+ COUNTRY AS OF NOW, BUT I THINK I MAY HAVE PUT TOO MUCH VALUE ON THE SENATE FOR MY GRADING SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TOUGH TERRAIN FOR DEMOCRATS. THIS NIGHT FEELS MUCH BETTER THAN A C+, EVEN WITH THE DISSAPOINTMENTS IN FLORIDA.

B Scenarios.  A lot of the advanced analytics types have the most likely outcome for the Dems being about +37 in the House and -1 in the senate.  I think that's a solid B. THIS IS ABOUT RIGHT, BUT THE GOVERNOR'S RACES WERE ALSO STRONG. 

A Scenarios.  So what makes a wave? The biggest recent was the 2010 Tea Party election when the Dems lost 63 seats. But they started that year with 256. The GOP only has 241 at the moment. So +48 would match that end result. I think anything over 40 would be a wave and it probably means picking up at least one senate seat.  So let's call this 235 in the House and a 50/50 Senate.  WE DIDN'T GET THERE BUT THE HOUSE CAME AWFULLY CLOSE.

A+ Scenario:  This is easy-the House by more than a handful of seats and the Senate. But to really earn the +, we'd have to see some really awful Republicans lose. It's not an A+night if Ted Cruz is re-elected. Beating Steve King or Dan Rohrbacher would be nice cherries on top too. Stace Abrams winning in Georgia would also be a profound outcome for the party  WELL, DANA ROHBACHER IS A NICE PLET TO PUT ON THE MANTLE.

I'm torn between giving them a B or a B+. For now I'll call it a B but I will run back here to upgrade if Nelson and/or Gillum winds up winning. And there is going to be a runoff race in Mississippi. Hopefully we'll make that competitive at least. It sure feels like our base is energized by the results.


What Does it Mean?

The Democrats will be able to pass all kinds of stuff in the house. But if they want any of that stuff to become law, they will need to reach agreement with the senate. And it's not just a matter of persuading four Republicans to join them. Mitch McConnell will control the senate and he alone will decide what gets put to a vote. I think that means a lot of gridlock.

But there are a handful of Republican senators who are vulnerable to losing in 2020.  Specifically Susan Collins (ME), Joni Ernst (IA) and Cory Gardner (CO) will all be in very close races. There will also be an election for the remainder of John McCain's term in Arizona. John Kyl has said he will not run in that race and he will probably resign in January, allowing Arizona to nominate a person who will run. Whoever is chosen, will have to worry about facing a close election in 2020.

Those Republicans will want to run on some accomplishments. They can put pressure on McConnel to let some things get done, especially if it means avoiding a government shut down. The senate is also close enough that there will be at least some very modest limits on who Trump can appoint to the senate. (But I'm not optimistic on this point. It's pretty easy to imagine Mitch getting 50 of his 53 member coalition to vote for just about anyone.)


What We Really Care About: 2020.
The map at the top of this post was put up by Nate Silver on Twitter the day after the elections. He tabulated the "popular" vote of every house race, by state. (This required an adjustment for Florida where votes in uncontested races do not get counted.) The result was a near replic of Obama's 2012 victory. (Republicans winning Ohio and the 2nd district of Maine, for a 324-214 Democratic win.)

That's certainly encouraging. And I think that's a possible outcome for 2020, although something would have to change for Iowa to flip back to blue, having gone for Trump by eight points last time. Trump's tariffs might just be disastrous enough to swin the race, but if that's the case, Democrats have probably sewn up the race in other places.

I think the biggest take-aways from Tuesday are this:
1. Trump is not imploding but he's also no invincible. The results in senate races correlated with Trump's current popularity. The Republican candidates in Indian, Tennesse and Missouri benefitted from his popularity. Those in Nevada and Arizona suffered. And Florida, as always, was a wash.

2. The next race will be close. Trump will start 2020 with the command of his party and a solid 200 electoral votes in his pocket. The race is going to be decided in about eight states.  A few analysts have identified two paths for the Democrats to win the White House back-a northern strategy of winning back Wisonsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan or a southern strategy of winning Florida and either North Carolia or Arizona.

I think for now we have to keep as many states in play as poosible. A geographic hybrid of PA and NC would require just one more state to flip. In 2016, we got complacent because of the "Blue Wall." I don't want us to think too narrowly in 2020 because we think there is "Red Wall" behind Trump. So let's keep an eye on any pink state in that map. (Yes, even Montana. Crazier things have happened, and John Tester might be on the ticket.)

3.  If the economy stays strong, Trump will probably be re-elected. One of the most remarkable things about the Democratic gains on Tuesday is that they happened despite low-unemployment and at least some glimmer of hope that wages are beginning to finally rise. If that growth in employment lasts another two years, then Trump will be in a strong position. He will have the support of the investor class and have much more credibility than he did two years ago.

I went to bed on election night before the race was officially called for Trump. I didn't want to experience that moment live. I went to bed with Hillary having a chance for an inside straight, if some western state flipped for her. That did not happen and I leanred the awful news at about seven AM on Wednesday. This year I went to bed fearing that Trump's coalition outperformed the polls. It didn't. But it had a stronger than expected showing in Florida and Georgia.

I expect 2020 to be another nail biter. Unless there is a war or massive scandal coming out of the Mueller probe, then both bases will be fired up for their side. Lots of people will go to bed before anything has been called. I will not. I'm going to see that one through. And I encourage you to begin to think about how you want that night to turn out and what you are going to do to bring about that result. My plan is to vote first thing in the morning, then drive to Wisconsin and take little old ladies to the polls for as long as I can, whereever the Democratic candidate needs me most. If I have to live with eight years of this clown show, I'm going to do so with a clear conscience as to my own efforts.

I will close with one last snipped from my predictions post. Because it needs to be drilled into everyone's head for the next 721 days:  I will never, ever trust Florida in an election

Meanwhile Back in Crazy Town (Updated GOP forecast)

I have taken up a new way of reading Republican primary polls.  Normally as Iowa and New Hampshire draw near, the candidates sort themselves into two broad categories; contenders and pretenders.  Two to four people are fighting for the lead and the rest are hoping to get lucky and outlast some of the more mainstream candidates.  That model does not compute for 2016.  The polls have been dominated by two candidates with absolutely zero political experience.  All of the candidates with credible resumes are huddles in a pack fighting to get to the upper single digits and more than a handful of  hopeless candidates soldier on without a blip of support or a plausible path to the nomination.  Here's the taxonomy I have created:

Outsiders	RCP	Serious	RCP	Niche	RCP	Charity	RCP
Trump	27.2	Rubio	9	Huckabee	3.7	Graham	0.5
Carson	21.3	Cruz	8	Paul	3.3	Jindal	0.3
Fiorina	5.5	Bush	7	Christie	2.5	Pataki	0.3
		Kasich	2	Santorum	0.5	Gilmore	0
TOTAL:	54.3%		26.0%		10.0%		1.1%

The Outsiders have dominated the polls.  Yesterday I was looking at the Real Clear Politics Polling and those three candidates had gotten between 52 and 54 percent of the voters in every single poll for the last month.  And they always appear in the same order: Trump first, Carson 2nd, Fiorina 3rd. This morning a new ABC/Washington Post poll has come out and it shows this group's support swelling to 59 percent!  (That's Trump 32, Carson 22 and Fiorina 5.)

Two weeks ago Trump's numbers slipped noticeably and the establishment began to breath easier. It looked like the Trump bubble had burst and he was going to be remembered as this year's Herman Cain. Cain led the RCP average for about three weeks in the summer of 2011. Donald Trump has now led the polls for more than three months.

Note that this Taxonomy is not a typical "Tiers" system.  The point of this taxonomy is to sort the candidates into categories based on the nature of their support rather than the volume of their supporters.  Marco Rubio is in the 2nd category but I still think he's the most likely nominee.  Mike Huckabee might do very well in Iowa and last longer than several Ousider and Serious candidates.

I still believe the nominee will be a candidate with a credible resume and broad appeal to the various demographics that make up the present Republican party. All of those candidates are in the Serious category. The Niche candidates are semi big names but who only appeal to one type of voter. Huckabee and Santorum to social conservatives. Chris Christie appeals to the pro-business and tough on crime crowds that used to form the bulk of the party. Rand Paul is hoping to catch some interest among the mostly younger conservatarian types who hate the government and know the party has to appeal to new segments if it's going to remain a major party. Together they are getting 10 percent of the vote. Four completely hopeless candidates are continuing to run because they have nothing better to do. They combine for just over one percent support and their primary purpose at this point is to warm up the crowds on GOP debate nights.  They are political opening acts.

The Road Ahead.

If the Serious candidates want to get down to winning this thing, they have to appeal to the people currently supporting the Outsiders. To paraphrase Willie Sutton, that's where the votes are.  And that's why I despair of the coming months. Rubio, Bush and Kasich are ill suited to Trump's game.  Cruz has cleverly stuck to a non-aggression strategy with the Outsiders. If any of them were to drop out, Cruz would likely benefit enormously.

But they are unlikely to drop out unless something personal rocks their campaign. Trump lives for this attention. Carson is making boat loads of money selling his books. Fiorina is ambitious enough to tell any lie and stick to it in the face of overwhelming evidence. So far Jeb Bush has been most willing to confront Donald Trump. He has lost every single round of that match up and he will keep losing them if he thinks he can be a bigger bully than Trump. Jeb is way too much of the establishment to make headway with that crowd now.  I don't think Kasich has the fight in him. Rubio and Cruz are best positioned to gobble up those points when this race is mercifully over.  And that leaves me with this revised forecast for the 2016 Republican nomination:

Candidate	Pre 1st debate	Post 1st Debate	Pre 2nd Debate	Pre 3rd Debate	Change
Trump	2	1	8	12	4
Bush	34	31	24	17	-7
Walker	32	29	22	--	-22
Rubio	23	28	26	46	20
Huckabee	3	3	1	1	0
Santorum	1	1	1	1	0
Paul	2	1	1	0	-1
Cruz	1	1	2	10	8
Kasich	1	2	6	3	-3
Carson	0	0	3	5	2
Christie	0	0	0	0	0
Jindal	0	0	0	0	0
Fiorina	0	2	3	2	-1
Graham	0	0	0	0	0
Perry	0	0		--	--
Pataki	0	0	0	0	0
Gilmore	0	0	0	0	0
The Field	1	1	3	3	0

So the headline is that I'm giving almost all of Walker's chance to win the nomination to Rubio. Ted Cruz's chances have also increased greatly, mostly at the expense of Jeb Bush. Trump and Carson have both grown a bit while Kasic and Fiorina have slipped.

After the debate I will update the field again and I will begin to try to analyze what the race for delegates might look like next year. The most tantalizing thing about a fractured field is that it feeds the ultimate dream of every political nerd; the prospect of a brokered convention. I have been hoping for one all of my political life so I remain skeptical that it can happen this time. But Trump is well positioned to gobble up delegates in the early states. And he's not known for hi ability to play well with others.



.

New Rule, Bill Maher has to be for science, or against it.

I enjoy Bill Maher's show.  On specific issues, I agree with him more often than not.  But one of the hallmarks of his shtick is making fun of conservatives for being anti-science.  If the subject is climate change or evolution, he can be absolutely cutting when it comes to making fun of Republicans.  In his movie Religilous, he visited the Creation Musem in Petersburg, Kentucky and made fun of them for showing a Stegosaurus with a saddle on it.  An easy target for sure, but well executed.

More interestingly, he interviews the director of that museum and they talk about the scientific consensus behind Evolution.  Maher points out that if evolution wasn't true, than there must be a vast conspiracy among all of the scientists around the world to promulgate it.

That's a pretty convincing point.  But Mr. Maher simply does not apply this logic to those areas of science that he disagrees with.  The above YouTube Clip is from 2009.  In it, former Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), a physician, takes him to the wood shed about vaccines.  Maher simply ignores the scientific arguments put before him by a prominent Republican and clings to his vague superstitions about the "dangers" or vaccines, using a 50 year old quote from Jonas Salk.  It's every bit as pathetic as grown men saddling stegosauruses.

Two years ago Bill Maher repeatedly and passionately argued for passage of a law that would have required food makers to put labels on food containing Genetically Modified Organisms.  He did this despite the fact that there is NO scientific evidence that GMOs pose any increased health risk to humans.  None.

Last night Mr. Maher had on Christopher Leonard, a journalist who just wrote a book about the industrial farming practices of American meat manufacturers.  During the interview, Mr. Maher brought up a recent story about Azodicarbonamide, a chemical that is used to preserve bread, and is also used in non-food items such as yoga mats.  Maher said "I'm sure they have 'statistics' that say this stuff is safe in small doses but what about those of us who don't want any poison in our food?"

Cute line, Bill.  But you can not speak so derisively of "statistics" and misuse a term like "poison" and still claim to be a champion of science.  Azodicarbonamide may be difficult to pronounce, but it is not dangerous.  The fears about it being in food originate from a blog written by someone with no background in science.  She found a scary factoid- this chemical in my bread is also used in yoga mats, and got a major company to change the way they make their bread.  That sounds like a major accomplishment, but it's not one that will improve the public safety one scintilla.

Please read Dr. Steven Novella's blog entry on this subject to better understand the science behind the use of azodicarbonamide in food..  And the next time you hear Bill Maher makes fun of some back bench congressman from Georgia for saying something dumb about the origins of life on earth, feel free to laugh.  But remember that the joke is being told by someone who spreads fear of vaccinations out of pure superstition.  Mr. Maher needs to understand that some kinds of stupid are worse than others.  Creationism may be dumb, but it's not contagious.  Whooping Cough on the other hand, is.

Democrats 2016, The Morning Line

Assessing the Democrats will require a different metric than I used for the Republicans.  The Republican party is overwhelmingly white and majority male.  Fully half of them are white evangelical Christians.  So when I assessed the prospects of their possible candidates, I evaluated them in terms of their appeal to certain ideological blocks within the party.

The Democrats have fewer obvious ideological splits that Republicans, and a lot more demographic diversity.  Nearly 60% of voters in the 2008 Democratic primary were female.  And 31% were black or Hispanic. Candidates will also need to have access to money and to passionate volunteers.  Such resources can be found in labor unions and among the young, passionate voters who tend to be skeptical of government and anti-war.  So when evaluating the Democratic field, I will assign grades based on the ability of each candidate to appeal to women, minorities, labor unions and peaceniks.

For the Republicans I divided the field into three tiers: Contender, Pretenders and Niche Candidates. I will use slightly different labels for the Democrats.

I.  The 600 Pound Gorilla.

1.  Hillary Clinton (69).  It is rare for a non-incumbent to be such a heavy favorite to win their party's nomination.  The closest example in recent memory is Vice-President Al Gore, who eventually defeated a reasonably strong candidacy by Bill Bradley by winning every single primary and caucus in 2000.

Secretary Clinton is the obvious choice.  She has astronomical name recognition, a solid resume and the goodwill of the party faithful.  She also stands ready to make history as the first woman presidential nominee.  There's just one problem.  She's a lousy candidate.

I say that based mostly on her 2008 campaign.  She was the heavy favorite but she hired a bunch of warmed over hacks, most notably Mark Penn, who were influential in her husband's campaign. Senator Obama's campaign outworked her nearly everywhere and picked off delegates that she never should have lost.  The sheer incompetence of her campaign cost allowed the nomination to slip through her fingers.

A track record like that matters, and I can not consider her the inevitable nominee.  But the good news for her is that Barack Obama is not walking through that door this time.  As we'll see below, she is the most likely nominee.  But she can lose again, and her first job is to not forget that fact.

Report Card:  Women: A Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B Peaceniks: C-

Hillary's biggest mistake in 2008 was under estimating Barack Obama's appeal to minority voters.  She relied on very early polling data that had her way ahead of him with black voters who thought highly of her.  Her primary campaign did real damage to the Clinton name among black Democrats.  But serving as his secretary of state probably healed those wounds sufficiently. 

Chance of Running:  99%  Chance of being the nominee: 70%

Veep Prospects:  None.  She doesn't want to spend her 70s waiting for some dude to die.  Except maybe her husband.  Zing!
Will She Get My Vote?  Probably not.  I think she is qualified and will probably make a decent President.  If she's the nominee, I'm sure I will support her strongly.  But I also expect a candidate to emerge that better matches my beliefs on certain key issues, most notably drug policy, defense spending and our relationship with Israel.

II.  The Obvious Alternative.

2.  Joe Biden (74).  Few men were born for their job more than Joe Biden was born to be Vice-President.  One reason that he was such a brilliant choice in 2008 is that Hillary Clinton could reasonably believe that he was not a threat to run in 2016 because of his age.  He will be older in 2016 than Bob Dole was in 1996 and John McCain was in 2008.  He will even be older than Ronald Reagan was when he ran for RE-election in 1984.

He also ran twice for President with spectacularly poor results.  He has no obvious base in the party, other than people who really love Barack Obama but who don't like Hillary Clinton. That's a small base.  But his name recognition and large rolodex of contacts will probably

Report Card:  Women: B+ Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B- Peaceniks: C-

He most likely will run.  There are few things in life he loves more than the sound of his own voice. Glad handing might be one of them.  And he has tons of name recognition and supreme self-confidence. He should run and he should have a good time and he will lose, spectacularly.

There is one somewhat morbid factor to consider here.  If Barack Obama dies in the next two years, than Joe Biden will run as an incumbent.  It is a remote prospect, given the President's apparent health and relative youth. But it would improve his chance of being the 2016 nominee.

Chance of Running:  98%  Chance of being the nominee: 6%

Veep Prospects:  None.  No one takes this job twice.
Will He Get My Vote?  Probably not.  I would love to vote for a Blue Hen but I don't think he's a strong candidate and I don't think he's especially strong on the issues that I care about.

III.  The Plausibles.

3.  Brian Schwietzer (61).  He's an interesting guy and a successful two-term governor of a western state.  But it's a tiny state with just three electoral votes.  The Democrats last carried Montana in 1992, thanks largely to Ross Perot getting over a quarter of the votes there.  (Clinton won with less than 38% of the vote.)
Report Card:  Women: B+ Minorities: B Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: B+

I think he faces an uphill battle but his opening is from the Libertarian left.  He's an educated man who knows a lot about energy policy and who lived in the Middle East long enough to speak Arabic fluently.  He's also from a state with a health Libertarian streak and knows how to talk to people who are skeptical of government.  He made some news this morning by declaring an intention to visit every county in Iowa.  His challenge will be to combine the emotional appeal of the 2004 Dean campaign with the political efficiency of Obama's 2008 campaign.  He's a long shot but might be the most plausible one.

Chance of Running:  98%  Chance of being the nominee: 5%

Veep Prospects:  Reasonable. He has executive experience and is a solid campaigner.
Will He Get My Vote?  Quite possibly.  He has my attention.

4.  Kristen Gillebrand (50).  She's good on TV and she represents a huge state.  Despite a fairly conservative voting record and image during her time in the house, she has made a name for herself in the Senate by championing issues that resonate with both the liberal base and with the party establishment.  That's an impressive feat for a young senator.   And she put up huge numbers in her second senate race.  She's a player, but she's probably crowded out by Hillary.

Report Card:  Women: A Minorities: A- Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: B-

If Hillary does not run, she might well be the front-runner.   But Hillary is extremely likely to run.  She is young, however and I expect her to run some day.

Chance of Running:  40%  Chance of being the nominee: 5%

Veep Prospects:  None, if Hillary is the nominee but excellent if it's someone other than Hillary.
Will she Get My Vote?  Perhaps.

5. Mark Warner (62).  He has an impeccable resume.  A very successful CEO, extremely popular Governor of a swing state, and now a Senator.  He has checked every box on the sheet.  And his electoral success in Virginia speaks for itself.  But I don't see a rationale to distinguish him from Hillary.  I'm not sure what story he tells that will resonate with the base.
Report Card:  Women: B+ Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B Peaceniks: B-

If Hillary does not run, she might well be the front-runner.   But Hillary is extremely likely to run.  She is young, however and I expect her to run some day.

Chance of Running:  25%  Chance of being the nominee: 4%

Veep Prospects:  Outstanding.  His popularity in Virginia means that he will be on any nominee's short list.  If there can be said to be a front-runner for the #2 slot, then it is he.
Will he Get My Vote?  If he runs, it means he has come up with a message to run against Hillary on.     And that will get my attention.

6.    Martin O'Malley (53).  Governor O'Malley could carve out a place to Hillary's left on the issues while still projecting the kind of main stream posture that passes for gravitas in the current political climate.  And he has the ultimate "in" with liberal hipsters, he is the inspiration for a character on The Wire. (Mayor Carcetti).  He's also term limited, so he'll be out of office come January, 2015.  Just about the perfect time to launch a Presidential bid.

Report Card:  Women: A- Minorities: A- Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: B+

In short, a very plausible alternative to Hillary.

Chance of Running:  80%  Chance of being the nominee: 4%

Veep Prospects:  Decent, particularly if he does well in the primaries.
Will he Get My Vote?  Perhaps.  In the history of the republic, only one President has ever been mayor of a major city.  (Grover Cleveland, Buffalo).   One of my goals in life is to see another.  O'Malley qualifies.  (See above comment about The Wire.)

7.  Andrew Cuomo (59).  The rationale for his candidacy would be, more or less, I'm the governor of a really big state.  That might work some years, but it's not something the base can rally around.  His only liberal bona fides come from being Mario Cuomo's son and from being the first governor to get marriage equality through his legislature.  But he lacks the oratory skill and political shrewdness of his old man.  And his natural constituencies (bankers, limousine liberals) are perfectly fine with Hillary being the nominee.

Report Card:  Women: B+ Minorities: B Labor Unions: B- Peaceniks: B-

I'm not sure how he wins this thing but he might be tempted to run and hope for Mrs. Clinton to stumble.  If Clinton does win, he won't be the running mate (see the 12th amendment) and he would likely be 67 before there is another open nomination race. .

Chance of Running:  70%  Chance of being the nominee: 2%

Veep Prospects:  Not very good.  The nominee is likely to be a New Yorker, and that would put him out of the running.  And I can't think of a state or constituency that he shores up for the Democrats if the top of the ticket is someone else.
Will He Get My Vote?  That is unlikely.

IV.  The Long Shots.

8.  Elizabeth Warren (67).  In the interest of full disclosure, and not passing up on a humble brag, let me say that I know the Senator, a little.  She was briefly my boss, although I had virtually no direct interaction with her.  But I admire her very much, and some of that is based on the opinions of people who do happen to know her well.  I think she's brilliant.  And I will absolutely vote for her if she does. But I do not think she will run.  I think the Senate is exactly where she is meant to be, and I expect big, big things out of her on behalf of the middle class.
Chance of Running:  5%  Chance of being the nominee: 1%

She is in the long shot category mostly because I do not think she will run.  If she does run, she has real potential.
Veep Prospects:  None.  She's from a deep blue state and was an uneven candidate during her only previous campaign for office.  I also think she might be the rare politician that would turn the 2nd slot down.  She went to the Senate to get stuff done.
Will she Get My Vote?  Yes.

9. Howard Dean (68).  He is still very popular with the base.  2004 was a long time ago, but he can rebuild his network of supporters pretty fast.  And like Hillary, he also paid his dues by working hard for the party after a losing presidential bid.
Report Card:  Women: B+ Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: A

I'm sure he's thinking about a run.  But I don't think he wants to get beat again.  And I was never convinced that his wife was fully on board with the previous run.  Its hard to make this run without the support of a spouse.

Chance of Running:  35%  Chance of being the nominee: 1%

Veep Prospects:  Very weak.  His negatives are high and the Democrats have tended to pick a candidate closer to the center than the Presidential nominee.
Will he Get My Vote?  Unlikely.  I admire his success as the DNC chair, but I've never been sold on the Doctor as a future president.

10. Russ Feingold (63).  Impeccable bona fides with the base.  But he has maintained a relatively low profile since leaving the senate.
Report Card:  Women: B Minorities: B+ Labor Unions: B+ Peaceniks: A

His biggest practical problem may be that he is twice-divorced.  Spouses have become important campaign assets, and he doesn't have one.  That hurts.  He also hasn't shown any real interest in running. But he could probably compete in the Iowa caucuses, and whoever wins there has a shot.

Chance of Running:  15%  Chance of being the nominee: 1%

Veep Prospects:  Very weak.  Thinks about that big moment at the convention where Hillary accepts the nomination, then Bill joins her on stage, and then Russ....unaccompanied.  Its a bad visual.
Will he Get My Vote?  I think he is very principled, and we agree on most issues.  If the primary were held tomorrow, and I'm right about Warren not running, then I would vote for Feingold.

11.  Alan Grayson (58).  He was elected to the house in 2008, then lost in the 2010 midterms, before winning the seat back in 2012.  If he loses in the next midterms, I suspect he will at least ponder a run in the primaries.  He has the potential to become our equivalent of Ron Paul, by raising a lot of money and inspiring some very devoted followers.  But I don't think he will be seen as a real contender for the Presidency by the press unless he makes some huge noise in the early states.

Chance of Running:  20%  Chance of being the nominee: <1 p="">

Veep Prospects:  Very weak.  Sure he's from a swing-state, but I don't think he could win a statewide election in Florida, so he's not much help there.
Will he Get My Vote?  We agree on most issues and I really hope he stays in Congress.  And I'll keep an open mind if he does run for President, but his resume is a little light at this point.

IV.  The Field.
This list is far from complete.  Several candidates will emerge between now and then.  There will be someone on the far-left who runs on a campaign of reduced military spending, an end to NSA spying and creation of a single-payer healthcare.  There also seems to be a gaping hole in this field for a Latino or Latina to run in this field.  But I don't know who.  So for now, I'll stand with 11.