I have taken up a new way of reading Republican primary polls. Normally as Iowa and New Hampshire draw near, the candidates sort themselves into two broad categories; contenders and pretenders. Two to four people are fighting for the lead and the rest are hoping to get lucky and outlast some of the more mainstream candidates. That model does not compute for 2016. The polls have been dominated by two candidates with absolutely zero political experience. All of the candidates with credible resumes are huddles in a pack fighting to get to the upper single digits and more than a handful of hopeless candidates soldier on without a blip of support or a plausible path to the nomination. Here's the taxonomy I have created:
Outsiders
RCP
Serious
RCP
Niche
RCP
Charity
RCP
Trump
27.2
Rubio
9
Huckabee
3.7
Graham
0.5
Carson
21.3
Cruz
8
Paul
3.3
Jindal
0.3
Fiorina
5.5
Bush
7
Christie
2.5
Pataki
0.3
Kasich
2
Santorum
0.5
Gilmore
0
TOTAL:
54.3%
26.0%
10.0%
1.1%
The Outsiders have dominated the polls. Yesterday I was looking at the Real Clear Politics Polling and those three candidates had gotten between 52 and 54 percent of the voters in every single poll for the last month. And they always appear in the same order: Trump first, Carson 2nd, Fiorina 3rd. This morning a new ABC/Washington Post poll has come out and it shows this group's support swelling to 59 percent! (That's Trump 32, Carson 22 and Fiorina 5.)
Two weeks ago Trump's numbers slipped noticeably and the establishment began to breath easier. It looked like the Trump bubble had burst and he was going to be remembered as this year's Herman Cain. Cain led the RCP average for about three weeks in the summer of 2011. Donald Trump has now led the polls for more than three months.
Note that this Taxonomy is not a typical "Tiers" system. The point of this taxonomy is to sort the candidates into categories based on the nature of their support rather than the volume of their supporters. Marco Rubio is in the 2nd category but I still think he's the most likely nominee. Mike Huckabee might do very well in Iowa and last longer than several Ousider and Serious candidates.
I still believe the nominee will be a candidate with a credible resume and broad appeal to the various demographics that make up the present Republican party. All of those candidates are in the Serious category. The Niche candidates are semi big names but who only appeal to one type of voter. Huckabee and Santorum to social conservatives. Chris Christie appeals to the pro-business and tough on crime crowds that used to form the bulk of the party. Rand Paul is hoping to catch some interest among the mostly younger conservatarian types who hate the government and know the party has to appeal to new segments if it's going to remain a major party. Together they are getting 10 percent of the vote. Four completely hopeless candidates are continuing to run because they have nothing better to do. They combine for just over one percent support and their primary purpose at this point is to warm up the crowds on GOP debate nights. They are political opening acts.
The Road Ahead.
If the Serious candidates want to get down to winning this thing, they have to appeal to the people currently supporting the Outsiders. To paraphrase Willie Sutton, that's where the votes are. And that's why I despair of the coming months. Rubio, Bush and Kasich are ill suited to Trump's game. Cruz has cleverly stuck to a non-aggression strategy with the Outsiders. If any of them were to drop out, Cruz would likely benefit enormously.
But they are unlikely to drop out unless something personal rocks their campaign. Trump lives for this attention. Carson is making boat loads of money selling his books. Fiorina is ambitious enough to tell any lie and stick to it in the face of overwhelming evidence. So far Jeb Bush has been most willing to confront Donald Trump. He has lost every single round of that match up and he will keep losing them if he thinks he can be a bigger bully than Trump. Jeb is way too much of the establishment to make headway with that crowd now. I don't think Kasich has the fight in him. Rubio and Cruz are best positioned to gobble up those points when this race is mercifully over. And that leaves me with this revised forecast for the 2016 Republican nomination:
Candidate
Pre 1st debate
Post 1st Debate
Pre 2nd Debate
Pre 3rd Debate
Change
Trump
2
1
8
12
4
Bush
34
31
24
17
-7
Walker
32
29
22
--
-22
Rubio
23
28
26
46
20
Huckabee
3
3
1
1
0
Santorum
1
1
1
1
0
Paul
2
1
1
0
-1
Cruz
1
1
2
10
8
Kasich
1
2
6
3
-3
Carson
0
0
3
5
2
Christie
0
0
0
0
0
Jindal
0
0
0
0
0
Fiorina
0
2
3
2
-1
Graham
0
0
0
0
0
Perry
0
0
--
--
Pataki
0
0
0
0
0
Gilmore
0
0
0
0
0
The Field
1
1
3
3
0
So the headline is that I'm giving almost all of Walker's chance to win the nomination to Rubio. Ted Cruz's chances have also increased greatly, mostly at the expense of Jeb Bush. Trump and Carson have both grown a bit while Kasic and Fiorina have slipped.
After the debate I will update the field again and I will begin to try to analyze what the race for delegates might look like next year. The most tantalizing thing about a fractured field is that it feeds the ultimate dream of every political nerd; the prospect of a brokered convention. I have been hoping for one all of my political life so I remain skeptical that it can happen this time. But Trump is well positioned to gobble up delegates in the early states. And he's not known for hi ability to play well with others.
Tomorrow night in Cleveland the glorious spectacle that is the 2016 GOP presidential primary begins in earnest. There are currently 17 announced candidates who are fighting for the right to be a 2 to 1 under dog in the general election. But only 10 of them have earned a spot in that prime time debate. The other 7 will have to fight for scraps at the 5PM kiddy table.
Of course, most of these folks, including a majority of the 10 with seats at the big boy table, have no chance of being the nominee. But ever since Mike Huckabee parlayed a 2nd (or 3rd, depending how you count) finish in the 2008 GOP primary into a multi-million dollar TV deal, there is clear value in just running for president.
I wrote my first assessment of the field almost a year ago, before any candidate formally announced. Now the field is set and there has been a lot of movement in my rankings. In that first ranking I broke the filed into three tiers: Contenders (6), Pretenders (4) and Niche Candidates (6). Eleven of those sixteen prospects are now in the field, including all ten from the top two tiers. But there's been a lot of movement between and among the tiers. Here are the updated rankings:
I. Three Contenders.: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.
There are only three candidates that I can realistically see winning this nomination. Among the three, I give Bush a slight advantage over Walker. Rubio has yet to get his feet but he is a plausbile nominee for reasons that I will discuss below.
1. Jeb Bush. This country has felt destined to wake up to the reality of another Clinton versus Bush election. The first one was in 1992. Since then we have had 8 very prosperous years under Clinton, eight terrible years under Bush and a prolonged if uneven recover from that Bush disaster. But all of these ups and downs have only solidified the natural rift in our politics. The Red States still like the Bush philosophy-plain spoken slightly less rabid than other options in that party, and bereft of any hope for a better tomorrow. Hillary Clinton has been scarred by the various proxy wars and nontroveries of the past quarter-century, but she's still standing, and she's virtually certain to be her party's nominee. Sadly, the most likely outcome of this nominating process is the son of Bush 41/Brother of Bush 43 fighting the wife of Clinton 42 for the right to be #45. Rank Last Time: 1st (No change) Odds of being the nominee: 34%. (Up from 23%)
2. Scott Walker. As this field takes shape, it has become clear that Scott Walker has the widest appeal. He is acceptable to every substantial demographic in the party. Billionaires Snake Handlers and War Mongers all seem to find him palatable. He's also done very well with fund raising and I think that has more than a little to do with his electoral track record. He can say, with a straight face, that he has won 3 statewide elections in a Blue State. No one else on this list can claim that.
But there are problems ahead. Put simply, the candidate is not very bright. This would be a complete deal breaker in a rational party, but fortunately for Scott, he's running for the Republican nomination. One of the most interesting things to look for tomorrow night is which candidates go after Walker. The media attention will swirl around Trump, but Walker is the real threat to win this nomination. Trump is Tattaglia. Walker is Barzinni. Rank Last Time: 9th (+7) Odds of being the nominee: 32%. (Up from 1%) Note: the last time I forecast the field Walker was still facing a reelection campaign in Wisconsin. If he had lost that, he would have been done, which is why I ranked him so low then.
3. Marco Rubio. I think Marco Rubio would have been better off sitting this one out. He could be the nominee in 4, 8 or even 12 years time. Running against Hillary after 12 years of Democratic rule or for an open seat after 16 would be ideal. By then the Republican fever will have broken and they will be so desperate to regain power that they will be ready to nominate a candidate that championed immigration reform. Indeed, they will no option but to do so.
But Marco correctly figured that he has a path to the nomination this time, and he went for it. He looked bad changing tracks on immigration but that won't kill him in the primary and come next year the party might let him walk that back a little in the general election. The Republican party also have a long track record of being a royalist party. If Rubio finishes second this time, he instantly becomes the favorite for 2020.
He just does not look mature or confident yet. He's not quite ready for the nomination but maybe the next few months will light a fire under him. Stranger things have happened. Rank Last Time: 6th (+3) Odds of being the nominee: 25%. (Up from 1%)
II. Two Pretenders: Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum.
4. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has strong support among the Christianist wing of the party but Wall Street and the Club for Growth Crowd have their doubts. So far he has run a very ineffectual campaign and I'm not sure he wouldn't prefer to be back doing his weekly Fox News show.
But the Republicans have a long history of nominating a previous runner up. (Reagan was runner up in 76, nominee in 90. Bush 41 did the same in 88/80, Dole in 96/88 McCain in 2004/2000 and (arguably) Romney in 2008/2004. I say arguably because although Mitt Romney got more votes than Huckabee did in 2008, Huck won more delegates. He sat out the last election to make easy money on FNC, but he's back in the ring now and theoretically has a path to the nomination. He has to finish strong in Iowa and wipe up in the South. His biggest advantage is that he's the only true Southern boy in the field. (Texans and Floridians are only quasi-southern.) Rank Last Time: 4th (Unchanged) Odds of being the nominee: 3%. (Down from 12%)
5. Rick Santorum. Last time around he snuck up on everyone and wound up being the runner-up. This campaign has started much more roughly for Senator Santorum and not making the first debate is a big setback. But voting for a candidate is a habit, and there are 4 million Republicans who vote for him in the last primary. They can't all go elsewhere. He needs another miracle in Iowa, and he needs Huckabee to drop out fast. There is a route there, but it's a long shot. Rank Last Time: 3rd (-2) Odds of being the nominee: 1%. (Down from 13%)
III. Twelve Niche Candidates (And the Niches they Represent).
6. Donald Trump (Assholes)
You can see why he's leading the polls; his niche is the biggest in the party. Trump has made the race fun and he has energized the low-information voters by giving them exactly what they want: the same stupid rhetoric they've been hearing on Fox News and talk radio for seven years. But let's keep things in perspective: he can not win. Four years ago the runaway leader was Rick Perry. Four years before that it was Rudy Giulliani. This man will come back to the back and then fall down to earth The only open question is how the eventual nominee handles him in the early going. He could be somebody's Sister Souljah or he could be their Willier Horton. Rank Last Time: Unranked Odds of being the nominee: 2%.
7. Rand Paul (Libertarian-lites)
Rand Paul has always struck me a lazy dofus. He inherited the family business, running for president on a vaguely Objectivist platform of calling the Federal Reserve the boogeyman. Thanfully he's less charming than his father.
I will give him credit for one thing. He seems to understand that the Republican party needs to attract minority voters. He also knows that the present system does not serve the needs of inner-city black folk well at all. I admire him for reaching out to those people and asking for their vote. Eventually, some Republican will convince them to vote for him That person's name is not Rand Paul. Rank Last Time: 5th (-2) Odds of being the nominee: 2%. (Down from 10%)
8. Ted Cruz (Tea Party Purists)
Let me begin by saying that he makes my skin crawl. Every time he tells the crowd that he is "the son of an immigrant" I have to yell "You ARE an immigrant." But he'll keep doing it.
I could vent about this guy's naked hucsterism for hours but he's not worth the time. So I'll just leave one anecdote here. When Ted Cruz was a first year student at Harvard Law School, he refused to study with anyone who was not a graduate of Harvard, Yale or (like himself), Princeton. Standford, MIT and Columbia were not good enough for young Ted. But when he wanted to announce his campaign for presidency he did so at Liberty College, a diploma mill for home-schooled teenagers who think human being used to put saddles on dinosaurs.
This man only buys from the best. But he'll sell to anyone That's a hustler. Rank Last Time: 4th (-4) Odds of being the nominee: 1%. (down from 10%)
9. John Kasich (Sane People)
You can see why he's struggling. This guy is by far the most competent and sensible candidate in the field. He also is the governor of a state that the Republicans must win next year. I suspect that he's running to be Joe Biden, the centrist candidate who gets wiped out in the primary but winds up on the ticket. Depending on the nominee, he might have ended up their without this run, but he's probably holding out some hope that he can distinguish himself in the early debates and let his resume carry him to the nomination. If Trump, Walker, Bush and Rubio all win large numbers of delegates, he could be the best compromise candidate. But the days of brokered conventions have gone the way of three man pitching rotations. That won't happen in 2016. Rank Last Time: Unranked Odds of being the nominee: 1%. (Up from 1%)
10. Ben Carson (People Who are Not Racist and Aim to Prove it to their Snippy Grandchildren)
Ben Carson is a great surgeon who became famous by being very rude to the President of the United States at a Prayer Breakfast. This gave him a certain amount of cache to the Fox News crowd and he has parlayed it into decent poll numbers. He will probably get more votes than some of the people ranked above him in this list, but he simply will not be the nominee. Rank Last Time: 12th (+2) Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Unchanged)
11. Chris Christie (Dallas Cowboys Fans From New Jersey)
A year ago he seemed like a plausible nominee but the base simply has not and will not forgive him for appearing in public with President Obama during the response to Hurricane Sandy. This deflated his shtick of being the no-nonsense guy who will tell anyone and everyone what he thinks. That problem was compounded when the genuine article wafted into the race on monogrammed solid gold comb over. He's toast. Rank Last Time: 2nd (-8) Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Down from 20%)
12. Rick Perry (People Who Think Glasses Make You Smart.)
Perry's resume is reasonable but everyone remembers the train wreck of his 2012 campaign. I think he wants to erase the memory of that, but early signs are not encouraging. Not making the early debates was probably the last nail in his coffin. Rank Last Time: 5th (-7) Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Down from 10%)
13 Bobby Jindal (People Sick of Being Called Racist but Who Think Ben Carson is a Little Too Militant.)
Running for president can be a joke, but it can also hurt real people. (Ask Ricky Ray Rector about that.) What's really said is when a joke candidacy hurts real people. Two days ago Bobby Jindal announced that the state of Louisiana would cancel it's medicaid contract with Planned Parenthood over their practice of donating fetal tissue for reimbursement. (I mean, selling baby parts to get filthy, filthy rich.) Never mind that the Planned Parenthood clinics in question do not perform abortions, a stand had to be made, and he was going to make it! Everybody wins, other than the poor women of Lousiiana who rely on Planned Parenthood for contraception, cancer screening and HIV testing. Rank Last Time: 7th (-6) Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Down from <1 p="">
14. Carly Fiorina (Women and the Fiscally Incompetent)
I know of no earthy rational for this woman running for President. She was a tech CEO oversaw the loss of more than 50% of her companies valuation. And she got clobbered in her only previous run for office. But onward and downward, I guess. Rank Last Time: Unranked Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Unchanged)
15. Lindsay Graham (War Hawks and Closet Cases.)
I at least understand why he is running. He really likes scaring the shit out of people about Iran and John Bolton decided not to. Best of luck, Lindsay. Rank Last Time: Unranked Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Unchanged)
16. George Pataki (Rockefeller Republicans)
Remember Rockefeller Republicans? Like January Jones' 2nd husband on Mad Men? Yeah, they were fun. Rank Last Time: Unranked Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Unchanged)
17. Jim Gilmore (The Entire Gilmore Family)
I lived in Virginia during half of this man's tenure as Governor of the Old Dominion. I can't tell you the first blessed thing about him. Best of luck, Jim. Rank Last Time: Unranked Odds of being the nominee: 0%. (Unchanged)
JUST FOR FUN: My Odds against Nate Silver's: About an hour after I posted this blog I came across Nate Silver's "completely subjective" odds for the GOP Nomination, as expressed in the 538 Podcast. So here's where my numbers stand against Nate Silver.
