Meanwhile Back in Crazy Town (Updated GOP forecast)

I have taken up a new way of reading Republican primary polls.  Normally as Iowa and New Hampshire draw near, the candidates sort themselves into two broad categories; contenders and pretenders.  Two to four people are fighting for the lead and the rest are hoping to get lucky and outlast some of the more mainstream candidates.  That model does not compute for 2016.  The polls have been dominated by two candidates with absolutely zero political experience.  All of the candidates with credible resumes are huddles in a pack fighting to get to the upper single digits and more than a handful of  hopeless candidates soldier on without a blip of support or a plausible path to the nomination.  Here's the taxonomy I have created:

Outsiders	RCP	Serious	RCP	Niche	RCP	Charity	RCP
Trump	27.2	Rubio	9	Huckabee	3.7	Graham	0.5
Carson	21.3	Cruz	8	Paul	3.3	Jindal	0.3
Fiorina	5.5	Bush	7	Christie	2.5	Pataki	0.3
		Kasich	2	Santorum	0.5	Gilmore	0
TOTAL:	54.3%		26.0%		10.0%		1.1%

The Outsiders have dominated the polls.  Yesterday I was looking at the Real Clear Politics Polling and those three candidates had gotten between 52 and 54 percent of the voters in every single poll for the last month.  And they always appear in the same order: Trump first, Carson 2nd, Fiorina 3rd. This morning a new ABC/Washington Post poll has come out and it shows this group's support swelling to 59 percent!  (That's Trump 32, Carson 22 and Fiorina 5.)

Two weeks ago Trump's numbers slipped noticeably and the establishment began to breath easier. It looked like the Trump bubble had burst and he was going to be remembered as this year's Herman Cain. Cain led the RCP average for about three weeks in the summer of 2011. Donald Trump has now led the polls for more than three months.

Note that this Taxonomy is not a typical "Tiers" system.  The point of this taxonomy is to sort the candidates into categories based on the nature of their support rather than the volume of their supporters.  Marco Rubio is in the 2nd category but I still think he's the most likely nominee.  Mike Huckabee might do very well in Iowa and last longer than several Ousider and Serious candidates.

I still believe the nominee will be a candidate with a credible resume and broad appeal to the various demographics that make up the present Republican party. All of those candidates are in the Serious category. The Niche candidates are semi big names but who only appeal to one type of voter. Huckabee and Santorum to social conservatives. Chris Christie appeals to the pro-business and tough on crime crowds that used to form the bulk of the party. Rand Paul is hoping to catch some interest among the mostly younger conservatarian types who hate the government and know the party has to appeal to new segments if it's going to remain a major party. Together they are getting 10 percent of the vote. Four completely hopeless candidates are continuing to run because they have nothing better to do. They combine for just over one percent support and their primary purpose at this point is to warm up the crowds on GOP debate nights.  They are political opening acts.

The Road Ahead.

If the Serious candidates want to get down to winning this thing, they have to appeal to the people currently supporting the Outsiders. To paraphrase Willie Sutton, that's where the votes are.  And that's why I despair of the coming months. Rubio, Bush and Kasich are ill suited to Trump's game.  Cruz has cleverly stuck to a non-aggression strategy with the Outsiders. If any of them were to drop out, Cruz would likely benefit enormously.

But they are unlikely to drop out unless something personal rocks their campaign. Trump lives for this attention. Carson is making boat loads of money selling his books. Fiorina is ambitious enough to tell any lie and stick to it in the face of overwhelming evidence. So far Jeb Bush has been most willing to confront Donald Trump. He has lost every single round of that match up and he will keep losing them if he thinks he can be a bigger bully than Trump. Jeb is way too much of the establishment to make headway with that crowd now.  I don't think Kasich has the fight in him. Rubio and Cruz are best positioned to gobble up those points when this race is mercifully over.  And that leaves me with this revised forecast for the 2016 Republican nomination:

Candidate	Pre 1st debate	Post 1st Debate	Pre 2nd Debate	Pre 3rd Debate	Change
Trump	2	1	8	12	4
Bush	34	31	24	17	-7
Walker	32	29	22	--	-22
Rubio	23	28	26	46	20
Huckabee	3	3	1	1	0
Santorum	1	1	1	1	0
Paul	2	1	1	0	-1
Cruz	1	1	2	10	8
Kasich	1	2	6	3	-3
Carson	0	0	3	5	2
Christie	0	0	0	0	0
Jindal	0	0	0	0	0
Fiorina	0	2	3	2	-1
Graham	0	0	0	0	0
Perry	0	0		--	--
Pataki	0	0	0	0	0
Gilmore	0	0	0	0	0
The Field	1	1	3	3	0

So the headline is that I'm giving almost all of Walker's chance to win the nomination to Rubio. Ted Cruz's chances have also increased greatly, mostly at the expense of Jeb Bush. Trump and Carson have both grown a bit while Kasic and Fiorina have slipped.

After the debate I will update the field again and I will begin to try to analyze what the race for delegates might look like next year. The most tantalizing thing about a fractured field is that it feeds the ultimate dream of every political nerd; the prospect of a brokered convention. I have been hoping for one all of my political life so I remain skeptical that it can happen this time. But Trump is well positioned to gobble up delegates in the early states. And he's not known for hi ability to play well with others.



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