The Road to 270, Take Three

I last predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election seven weeks ago. Joe Biden remains the favorite, and by a wider margin than my last post. But there are 149 days until the election and a lot can go wrong.

The country is one week into a nationwide response to the horrific murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. The violence and property damage of the early nights seems to have crested, but we do not know how long these actions will last or what the full scale of the government's response will be. We also don't know if these events will lead to a major resurgence of COVID-19 cases. (Personally it seems likely to me, but the scale is hard to predict.)


I. The Fundamentals.

The economy is in the toilet and the streets are on fire.  Recent polling reflects these facts. The president is unpopular. More importantly he is incapable and uninterested in changing course. So Joe Biden is the favorite now.

II. The Variables.
A lot can happen in 21 weeks.

1.  The Death Count.   Seven weeks ago 38,664 Americans have died from COVID-19. Back then, I boldly predicted that "I think the death tally will be over 75,000 by election day." I also wrote that if the death count was "somehow under 60,000, [Trump] might be able to claim that with a straight face."

Today that number is 109,928. We're still losing close to 1,000 people a day. It seems inevitable that the cases and deaths will spike thanks to these protests, some of which were held in the cities with the biggest outbreaks in the world.  Trump's response will almost certainly be to blame any resurgence or even continued climb in the death count on the protests.

2.  The Democratic Ticket.  We still don't know who Biden will pick as his running mate but the field is definitely more narrow than it was last time I wrote.  (See a more detailed take below.)

3.  October Surprises.  Tara Reade's allegations have seem to have come and gone in terms of political potency.  It has now been established that she lied under oath about having a college degree. When this was exposed she doubled down on that lie and her attorney stopped representing her.  This has done enough damage to her credibility that I do not think she will be used against him, even by surrogate groups.

The Republicans have tried to make some hay out of a made-up controversy called "Obamagate" and they will certainly imply that Hunter Biden engaged in something nefarious in Ukraine.  But this is all weak sauce.  Joe Biden is a popular person in Washington and for the moment it looks like he won't have to worry about losing the election because of a scandal.

III. The Forecast.

My previous Electoral Map gave Biden 289 Electoral Votes and Trump 249 EVs.  That meant Biden holding every Hillary state plus winning PA, MI, WI and Arizona. I still believe he will win all of those states. And it's possible that the election will end up right there, because flipping any other state will require Biden to make a pretty significant improvement over Hillary's performance. But the polling has been good for Biden and I now thing that Biden is more likely than Trump to win these additional contests:

1. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
2. Florida
3. North Carolina.

I want to emphasize that I think all 3 of these races will be very close.

I am also moving Ohio from likely Republican to Lean Republican. I gave some thought to doing the same with Texas, but I can not pull that trigger yet.

I am also moving Michigan from likely Biden to safe Dem. (The most recent poll has Biden up there by 12 points. I don't think he will win by that much but I think it's unlikely he will lose there.)

So here is the new map:

The new official prediction is Biden winning 334 to 204.

IV. A Word About Running Mates.

There has been a lot of change here.  My previous first choice was Catherine Cortez-Masto. She took herself out of the running.  My previous second choice was Amy Klobuchar.  The events in Minnesota have effectively taken her out of the running. I suspected that she was Biden's first preference but I don't think he will take the risk of Trump using the Minneapolis police department against him.  So here are the remaining contenders:.

1. Kamala Harris. (#3 last time)The betting markets like her. And she's an obvious contender. She checks a lot of boxes and I think Biden likes her.  I think she is in many ways the safe pick-she won't alienate anyone and she has the right resume. I think that makes her most likely. But I also think she's somewhat uninspiring and I do think that Biden will ultimately make a personal choice. He wants someone that he believes is ready to take over if needed and that will align with his core values. I believe Harris does that.

If Harr is not the pick, it will be because someone else impressed Biden on a personal level, during the vetting process. I think he believes his friendship with Obama was an important part of what made that administration hum. He will look for something similar in his running mate.

2.  Val Demings. (#7).  Recent events have propelled her up these rankings. Her 20 year experience as a big city cop will be isolation against the inevitable claim that Democrats are anti-police. And every little bit helps in Florida. But she's in only her 2nd term in the house.  It's not quite  a "safe" pick but it's not hard for me to imagine Biden clicking with her during the interview process and going for it.

3. Tammy Baldwin (#4).  Wisconsin is very important.

4. Tammy Duckworth. (Unranked.)  Biden has to give her a long look. She is a woman of color and a decorated veteran.  She is also a dull public speaker but I think she can impress Biden with her story and their policy alignment.

5.  Susan Rice (Unranked) She's never won an election. That is a huge minus. But I think Joe Biden really likes her and will give her every consideration.  Picking her will kick the "Benghazi" nonsense back into gear, but I don't think that's a deal-breaker.

6. Gretchen Whitmer.  (#8)  I still think her resume is light but Biden has to consider her and being governor of the state that Trump won by the smallest margin is a big point in her favor.

7.  Keisha Lance-Bottoms. (Unranked)  The mayor of Atlanta has done great work lately and should be given every consideration. But she is a long shot.

9. Elizabeth Warren.  (#6)  I still think this is very unlikely but she has plenty of fans.

10. Stacey Abrams.  (#5).  I can't see picking a state legislator in this environment. It's too much of a stretch.

V.  Other Forecasts.

As I update this forecast, I'll try to compare where I stand relative to other projections.  Nate Silver has yet to release his general election forecast, but there are several other credible models out there so here is the first comparison:

1. Spider Stumbled: Biden 334, Trump 234. (Up from Biden 289, Trump 249.)  I will add that I think Biden's win probability is about 70% now.

2. JHK Forecasts.  Their median result is Biden 315, Trump 233.  (Up from 299 to 239).

If you award every state to the candidate who wins each state at least 50.0001% of the time, then the result is Biden 334, Trump 234 up from (Biden 318, Trump 220.)  (This would mean Biden winning Florida, which they give a 50.3% chance of happening, so basically a toss-up.)

They also run simulations, JHK has Biden winning 67.8% of the time. (Up from 60.4% when I last published.)

3. Predictit.  If you award the electoral votes in each state the result is: Biden 334, Trump 234 up from Biden 289, Trump 234, Toss-up 15. (North Carolina was the toss-up last time.) Their national betting line is Biden 54 cents, Trump 46 cents.

4. 270toWin.com.  I really like this site and have been following them since 2004. They have a broad definition of toss-up, which is probably accurate this far out from the election. Their current tally is Biden 232, Trump 204, Toss-up 102. This is unchanged from last time.  (They obviously have a broad definition of toss-up.

5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Prof. Sabato's forecast is unchanged from last time: Biden 248, Trump 233, Toss-up 57.

The Ninth Debate.

The ninth debate of the Democratic party was held in Las Vegas last night. It was much more lively and eventful than the prior eight, because five of the candidates had a common target-the short fellow down at the end of the line.  They did not shirk from their mission to destroy him and they largely succeeded. Quick impressions:

I. Helped Their Cause.

1. Elizabeth Warren.  Her best debate. All those committee sessions where she eviscerates banking execs were good preparation for getting Bloomberg on the hook and reeling him in. The stuff on the non-disclosure agreements was devastating.  He now has two choices-let those women out of their non-disclosure agreements or give up on being the Democratic nominee.  This is probably a false choice because I suspect the contents of those non-disclosure agreements would also foreclose him from being the nominee.  

Warren also got in good digs at other candidates, and deftly got in a moment of diplomacy when Pete when after Klobuchar.  If there are any soft Bernie supporters, they are probably giving Warren a second look.  Grade: A.

2. Joe Biden.  His best debate so far. He obviously knows that he's now a long shot and he was able to make his strongest points pretty effectively. He also stayed around to do post-debate interviews, something that he should have done even when he was a front-runner.  Most of all he benefits by the attacks on Bloomberg.  If Bloomberg goes down in the polls, Biden should be the beneficiary.  Grade: B+.

II.  Neither Helped Nor Hurt.

3. Pete Buttigieg.  He usually does well in these debates and he didn't have any terrible moments last night. But he spent most of his time going after Klobuchar, who isn't a front-runner. I think his campaign peaked in Iowa but if Bloomberg and Biden both flounder, he can stay around and gather some delegates.  It's not like he has anything better to do with his time.  Grade: B.

4.  Amy Klobuchar.  For the first time, she was a target of significant incoming fire. That's what happens when you exceed the polls a couple times. She was prepared for the question about the Mexican president, of course but I don't think she came across as warm and prepared as she did at the New Hampshire debate.  She regressed to the mean, which is understandable. But she needs to finish February strong or she will not be around much beyond Super Tuesday.  Grade: B.

III.  Hurt His Case.

5. Bernie Sanders.  The rest of this field has been hesitant to really go after Bernie becuase they all worry about alienating his base. But he's the front-runner now and he took at least some hits last night. He made his same ponderous "policy" points as he always does but he looked petty when responding to Bloomberg's attacks about being a millionaire with three homes by pretending this was a common thing in Vermont. 

He is likely to end the primaries with a plurality of delegates. Last nigth he made the statement that the candidate who should gets the most votes should be the nominee.  That sounds like a prety straight-forward and even obvious principle....if you forget 2016.

The last Democratic primary was held on June14th, 2016.  When it was over, Hillary Clinton had 3.7 million more votes than Bernie Sanders. She had won 54 percent of the pledged delegates. She won, fair and square.  But it took Bernie over a month to endorse her and he talked openly about trying to persuade Super Delegates to change their votes.  Now that the math is shaping up the other way, he has had a convenient change of principles.

This will hurt him, at some point. Unless of course, he runs away with the primaries and wins an outright majority of delegates. Given how fractured and mediocre his opponents looked last night, he should think this is a reasonable goal. Grade: C+.

IV.  A Monkey Trying to Fuck a Football Bat.

6. Michael Bloomberg.  Money can not buy you a personality and it can not buy a thick skin. Bloomberg was unprepared, ill-tempered and out of his league.  He pays his people a lot of money and somehow they convinced him that "The NDAs were consensual" is a sufficient defense to why he is keeping some untold number of actions for workplace harassment and discrimination secret.

There is another debate next week.  If he is really serious about being the nominee he needs to spend the whole week preparing for it, including interviews with some unfriendly outlets.  Two performances like this in a row, and he might as well turn off the cash spigots. 

I don't think Bloomberg will be the nominee. The question becomes, will he really spend a billion dollars supporting any of the people who unmaked him on that stage last night?  I don't see him doing it for Bernie or Warren. But maybe he's a bigger man than he showed last night.

Grade: F.

This One Goes to Eleven (Handicapping the Democratic Field, Take 11 PLUS Iowa Predictions!

A few days ago, former Representative John Delaney dropped out of the race. He spent over $20 million of his own money and didn't even stick around long enough for the voting to start.  This is not a healthy system.

The big news this week was the Senate's capitulation to Donald Trump. The Republican majority refused to even have a proper trial with witnesses and evidence. They're just going to bit the bullet and stick with their man and hope that he lets them hold on to power for a few more years while the Baby Boomers take their resentment and entitlement to the grave.

In about 30 hours, the people of Iowa will caucus for the remaining 11 candidates.  I will go through each of those option, in the order which I rank their chances of being president. For each, I will say what is a Good Result, Adequate and Disappointing result tomorrow.

My theory remains that we will not know who is likely to be the nominee until Super Tuesday.  None of the early states is representative of the Democratic party nationally. Iowa and New Hampshire have almost no minority voters. Nevada has a lot of Latin voters, but not many black voters. Then South Carolina balances things out by having a disproportionately high number of black voters.  Only on Super Tuesday will we have a big enough sample to know where the country is going. 

And this years is the first time that a truly major candidate is skipping the early states all together. If Biden under performs in those early states, a lot of moderate will give Michael Bloomberg a long hard look. 

Here are my early state predictions:

Iowa:  1. Sanders (28%). 
            2. Biden (23%) 
            3. Buttigieg (17%)  
            4. Warren (14%) 
            5. Klobuchar (12%)


NH*    1. Biden  2. Sanders   3. Warren  4. Klobuchar 
NV       1. Sanders  2. Biden  3. Warren 
SC        1. Biden  2. Sanders 

* To clarify-I think Bernie/Biden will finish in the top 2 in IA and NH. The order will switch be NH has decided that their purpose in life is to veto the winner of the Iowa caucuses.

 The Top Tier (The Front Runners).

1. Joe Biden 
GOOD IOWA RESULT: Win
ADEQUATE IOWA RESULT: 2nd
BAD IOWA RESULT: 4th

2. Bernie Sanders 
Good: Win
Adequate: 2nd
Bad:  4th

3. Elzabeth Warren
Good: 2nd
Adequate: 3rd
Bad: 4th. 

4. Mike Bloomberg 
N/A

B.  Tier Two (The Alternatives).

5. Pete Buttigieg 
Good: Win.  (If he can't win here, he probably can't win anywhere.)
Adequate: 2nd
Bad:  4th.  He can probably justify a close 3rd place finish but if he doesn't make the medal table in Iowa, he might as well drop out. His national numbers have tanked and Indian doesn't vote until May. 

6.  Amy Klobuchar  
Good:  3rd
Adequate: 4th.  (Especially if she finishes ahead of Warren.)
Bad: 6th  She's beein in 5th place in Iowa for awhile now but she has had a couple good polls that have her in 3rd or 4th. Finishing ahead of Pete and or Warren will be a win. As an avowed Klobuchar supporter, I thin here best result looks something like Bernie 30, Biden 24, Klobuchar 15, Buttigieg 13, Warren 11.  Yang 4 Gabbard 3. 

C. Long Shots:

7.  Michael Bennet  

8. Deval Patrick.  (Up from 9)
Both of these guys have been focusing on NH.

D. Novelty Candidates.

9. Andrew Yang (Up from 10)
Good Result: 5th
Adequate Result; 6th
Bad Result:  If he gets under 5 percent, then we officially know he's just an internet meme. Anything over 5 percent or finishging ahead of Steyer and Klobuchar would suggest that he has more of a game ground than I suspected.

10. Tom Steyer (Up from 11) 
Good Result:  5th
Adequate Result: 6th
Bad Result: 7th
He has spent a ton of money in all of the early states. He needs to show a pulse in IA, but even a terrible result won't cause him to drop out.   He is angry at money, apparently.

11. Tulsi Gabbard (Up from 12)
It doesn't really matter. She's going to keep running. I don't know what her objective is, but I'm pretty sure it has nothing to do with being the Democratic nominee for president in 2020.

III. The Power Rankings, Take Ten.

These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.

1.  Amy Klobuchar
2.   Michael Bennet   
3.   Joe Biden 
4.   Pete Buttigieg 

5.   Elizabeth Warren 
6.   Bernie Sanders (Up from 7)
7.   Deval Patrick (Up from 8)
8.  Tom Steyer

9.  Michael Bloomberg (Up from 10) 

10 Andrew Yang  (Up from 11)

11.   Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 12)

The Democratic Horse Race, Take Nine

Pour out a little malt liquor for Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Tim Ryan, Joe Sestak, Wayne Messam and Steve Bullock. Unfortunately, we also have to say hello to Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick.

 last updated my rankings of the Democratic Field on October 22nd. The news since then has been dominated by the impending impeachment of President Trump. But a lot has happened in the primary field too. In those eight weeks six candidates have dropped out. Perhaps more incredibly, two joined the field.  So the field of 19 has dwindled slightly to fifteen.

I. POLLING DATA (Based on the Real Clear Politics Average)

In the polls, Joe Biden has maintained a steady and significant lead. Warren has slipped from 2nd place to 3rd, losing about 1/3 of her support in the RCP average. Bernie's support has been steady enough to pass Warren, despite a small dip in her nominaal support. 

Only one of the six recent dropouts has significant polling support. Kamala Harris was in 5th place two months ago with 5.3 percent. That's is nearly identical to the 5.4 percent that Michael Bloomberg now.

II. The Horse Race (Take Eight).

In my last update I moved Elizabeth Warren up to the top spot. I regret that. She was on a good run but once she tried to tack back towards the center by hedging on her commitment to Medicare for All, that bubble burst.  She seems to be caught between the progressive wing which still prefers Bernie and the larger more centrist block of the party.  (Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Booker and Klobuchar currently have about 42 percent support. Sanders and Warren about 34 percent.)

Without further ado, here are the updated rankings:

A. The Top Tier (The Front Runners).

1. Joe Biden (up from 2)

He has always been the favorite and I should have stayed with him all the way through. But age is a real vulnerability here, so I can't call him the prohibitive favorite just yet.

2. Elzabeth Warren (Down from 1)

She is popular but her shtick seems to have worn thin early. And there is no sign of Bernie relenting or his followers breaking with him. 

In my last post, only Bernie and Warren were listed in the top tier. But I think the next two candidates have shown enough consistency to deserve being included with them.

3. Bernie Sanders 

His base is large and committed.  He will not quit a minute sooner than he has to, especially if a moderate is in front of him.  

4. Pete Buttigieg

He needs to win Iowa. That is a real possibility. But if he does, he probably fades in NH and I don't see him doing much in SC or NV.

B.  Tier Two (The Alternatives).

5.  Amy Klobuchar (Up from 7)

Hear me out. She has seen an uptick in her polling and outlasted a couple early contenders (Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris).  She also seems generally acceptable to most wings of the party.  If she can pull off a strong finish in Iowa, she will have to be considered a top tier contender.  And if things go haywire, she might be the compromise candidate that everyone can live with. 

6.  Mike Bloomberg (Unranked)

There are three things to remember about Mike Bloomberg-he's rich, he's ambitious and he's obsessed with data.  He would not be spending the obscene amounts of money that he is spending if he didn't think he could get a practical return on the spending. That return could come in the form of the nomination but I think it is more likely that he wants to steer the conversation away from genuinely left-wing ideas like Medicare for all and towards more pragmatic concerns like reducing carbon emissions and restoring American's alliances. 

I wish him well....to a point.  If I could wave a magic want and make him the president, the country would be in good hands. But he has singular political downsides ind the general election.  (He is Jewish. He is unmarried. He is synonmous with government overreach in both the nanny state and the police state realms.)  But I also believe that he will spend his money wisely and absorb delegates beyond what his vote percentage would rate.  If he has a few hundred delegates, then he might be able to push the nomination to someone like Klobuchar or Biden as needed.

Tier Three (Long Shots)

7.  Cory Booker (Down from 6)

 Not making the debate stage hurts. He also failed to make the Vermont ballot, which suggests that he is having to conserve his resources.  (Vermont doesn't have many delegates and Bernie will probably win most of them no matter what.)

8. Michael Bennet  (Up from 10)

He may have hurt his chances for becoming president by running.  He is exactly the kind of moderate, mains stream purple-state candidate that someone like Bloomberg might have pushed for. But getting crushed in New Hampshire will make him look unpopular.

9.  Julian Castro.  His polling is dreadful.  But he seems t0o stubborn to drop out. A for effort, I guess.

10. John Delanay.  (Up from 12)

Yep. He's still running. He also failed to make the VT ballot, which is inexcusable given the fact that he has a lot of money to spend and running for president has been his full-time job for over 2 years. 

11. Deval Patrick.  (Unranked)

I figure he thought that if he didn't at least try to run, he would always wonder "what if?"  Well it looks like he spared himself that one.

Tier Four Novelty Candidates.

12. Andrew Yang (13)

13. Tom Steyer (15))  Now the 2nd richest billionaire in the race.

14. Tulsi Gabbard

15. Marianne Williamson (17)

III. The Power Rankings, Take Nine.

These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.

1.  Amy Klobuchar
2.   Michael Bennet (Up from 4)  
3.  Pete Buttigieg 

4. Joe Biden (Up from 9)
5.  Elizabeth Warren (Down from 4)
6.  Julian Castro (Up from 8)
7. Cory Booker (Up from 10)
8. John Delaney (Down from 11)
9. Bernie Sanders (Up from 14)
10. Tom Steyer (Up from 17
11.  Deval Patrick (Unranked)

12.  Michael Bloomberg (Unranked) 

13 Andrew Yang  (Up from 16)

14.   Marianne Williamson (Up from 18)
15.   Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 19)

5th Democratic Debate Grades

This debate felt very tired.  The stage is too big and the arguments they have are not new.  The whol event was of course overshadowed by the impeachment hearings. But, this is what we do here so let's get to it.



WINNERS

1. Pete Buttigieg  Tactical:  A-  Strategic A
Solid and poised, as always.

2. Cory Booker   Tactical:  A-   Strategic:  A-

Booker is good in these forums. He is smart on substantive issues and he manages to be funny without coming off like a dick.  These talents have not translated into any kind of traction in the polls as yet.

3. Amy Klobuchar   Tactical: A-  Strategic: A-

She had some good lines and got buzz on social media.  I was perhaps a little underwhelmed, only because I follow her closely and have heard some of those line rehearsed already.  She also seemed to shake, slightly.  I think it was something about her bangs hanging funny, but it was noticeable and a little distracting.

BREAK EVENS

4. Bernie Sanders  Tactical:  B+ Strategic:  B+

He played the hit and he seemed to look healthy again, which is good. He also looked younger than Biden, which is something. 

5.  Joe Biden    Tactical: B-  Strategic:  B

Joe had a few embarrassing moments but I don't think they will hurt him.  It's just hard to get fired up by him because you keep waiting for him to say something stupid.  That is a problem.

6. Kamala Harris  Tactical: B-  Strategic: B-
She seemed a little tired. But then again, so did I.

7. Elizabeth Warren   Tactical:  C+  Strategic:  B-
More of the same. I think she may have hit a ceiling of support.

LOSERS

8. Andrew Yang  Tactical: C  Strategic: C

Who gives a shit?

9. Tom Steyer:  Tactical:   C-  Strategic:  C-

Remember the episode of Seinfeld where Kramer goes to baseball fantasy camp? The Steyer campaign feels like that. He's old and he's rich and he's going through a divorce so he's spending a bunch of money to pretend he's running for president. His presence on the stage tonight was as if the Kramer was allowed to play a few actual major league games as a September call up.

10. Tulsi Gabbard  Tactical:  Incomplete  Strategic: Incomplete

There is something really, really wrong with her. And the way she wears that white suit every fucking day creeps me out.

2020 Democratic Field, Take Six (Post 2nd Debate)

I.  Do You Ever Think About Death?

This weekend, the country experienced two horrific mass shootings. That's a lot, even for US.

It's early but the reaction this time feels different. Tonight the governor of Ohio was shouted down at a vigil with chants of "Do Something." Watch the video. Only about half the attendees are actively chanting but what's really interesting is the reaction of those who are not chanting. They are quiet. They are not telling anyone to stop chanting. They seem torn, between wanting to be respectful of the fact they are at a vigil and wanting to well, "Do Something."

The shooting in El Paso was inspired by the racist rhetoric of our President and his obedient bullhorn, the Fox News Channel.  The shooter wrote a manifesto that made two broad points-the United State is being invaded by non-white immigrants and that white Americans need to use their right to bear Arms to repel this invasion because the white people of Europe do not share those rights. 

This one is on the Republicans, full-square. It will fade as a news story, as all of these horrific episodes do.  But it has reinforced the narrative that Donald Trump is a white nationalist. And it has so far emboldened Democrats to connect those dots. 

We'll see if these facts affect poll data as the weeks go by. I suspect that it will. Americans are sick of living like this. And I think the silly idea that that this is about mental health or praryer in schools or motherfucking video games is finally being treated as the nonsense that it has always been. 

II.  The Field Takes Shape, (Sort of)

The past week gave us some slight clarity on the state of the race for the Democratic nomination. After two rounds of debates, the polls are about where they were two months ago-Biden leads, with Warren, Harris and Sanders also in double digits. Pete Buttigieg remains in fifth. Beto O'Rourke is a distant sixth, and everyone else is reguarly pollin between 1 and 2 points in both statewide and national polls.  

Only eight candidates have qualified for the third debate in Houston, with Klobuchar and Booker joining the above mentioned candidates.  Andrew Yang and Julian Castro each need one more poll at 2 perecnet or above to put them in the debate. I expect they will both get that.

That would bring the field up to ten candidates. That would mean one night of debates, with all the front runners on stage together. If an 11th candidate qualifies, then the field will be split in two again, so we might not get the top four on the same stage. But the smaller panels will give each candidate more time to speak.  I'm rooting for 11 to qualify because I think Klobuchar will benefit from being given more time on her night. 

Only three candidates have even a single qualifying poll at two percent-Gabbard, Hickenlooper and Steyer. Gabbard has met the donors threshold. None of the others are close. So we might need a Gabbard bounce to split the field in Houston.


III. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Six.

These are my purely personal preferences.  Since the last rankings, Eric Swalwell and Mike Gravel have dropped out of the race. So we are down to 23 spots. 

Changes from the previous ranking are noted for each candidate. (Not a lot of change this time.)   



1. Amy Klobuchar  Unchanged
2. Kamala Harris (Up from 3)
3. Elizabeth Warren  (Down from 2).  
4. Julian Castro (5)  Unchanged

5. Jay Inslee (Up from 13)  He had a strong performance and let's face it-his priority is the right one. If we don' stop heating up the planet, we are all fucked. 
6. Beto O'Rourke (Down from 5)  He had another laclucster night in the debate, but he has a rare opportunity to speak about the shooting in his hometown. So far, he is speaking plainly and truthfully.

7. Michael Bennett (Unchanged)  
8. Steve Bullock (Unchanged)
9. Pete Buttigieg (Unchanged)
10. Joe Biden (Unchanged)
11. John Delaney (Unchanged)

12. Corey Booker  (Up from 14)
13. John Hickenlooper (9)
14. Kristin Gillibrand  (Down from 6)  Her attack on Joe Biden was very dishonest. I hope she starts looking for the exit once she officially fails to make the next debate stage..
15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged)

16. Seth Moulton (Up from 17)
17. Joe Sestak (Up from 18)
18. Bernie Sanders (Unchanged)

19. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)  

20. Wayne Messam  (Unchanged)
21. Bill de Blasio (Down from19)  He is a prick.

22. Tulsi Gabbard (Unchanged)
23. Marianne Williamson (Down from 20)  

IV..   The Horse Race, Take Six.

This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. 

The Top Tier Candidates 

There are no changes in this tier from last time.
1. Joe Biden 
2. Elizabeth Warren 
3. Kamala Harris
4. Bernie Sanders 
5. Pete Buttigieg 

The Pack 

Swapped the Texans.

6. Cory Booker (Unchanged)
7. Beto O'Rourke (8)

8. Julian Castro (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)

Flawed and/or Floundering 

Only 4 candidates left here, down from six last time. I think Gillibrand and Ryan have been exposed as candidates with no particular rational or political base to draw from. They are long shots.

10. Jay Inslee (Up from 13)

11. John Hickenloper (Up from 12)

12. Michael Bennett (Down from 10)
13. John Delaney (Up from 14)

Long Shots

14. Steve Bullock (Up from 19)

15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged at 15, but down a tier to long shot, because he is meathead.)

16. Kristen Gillibrand (Down from 10)

17. Bill de Blasio (Unchanged)
18. Joe Sestak (Unchanged)

19. Tulsi Gabbbard Unchanged)

20. Seth Moulton (17)

Train Wrecks
21. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)
22. Wayne Messam (Up from 23, by attrition) 
23. Marrianne Williamson (Up from 24, also by attrition)

Uncovering the Dome by Amy Klobuchar
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

I read this book because I wanted to get a sense of what Amy Klobuchar's writing and thinking were like before she entered the national political stage. This book is a beefed-up version of her senior undegraduate thesis at Yale. It tells the rather dry story of how the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrdome was built by the people and government of Minnesota.

The story unfolds in a pretty straight-forward manner. The governor recognizes that the Twins and Vikings might leave for sunnier climes if they do not get a new stadium (or two) but no one wants to commit tens of millionis of public dollars to subsidize two particular private corporations. Eventually the state legislature appoints a seven person commission to study the issue and to decide where such a stadium should be built. The result was the HHH Metrodome, a functional but unloved stadium that served as home to the Twins and Vikings for 30 years.

As prose, the writing suffers a bit from the hallmarks of undergraduate research. There is a lot of exposition and the drama is light, although the future Senator does an admirable job of describing the motivations of the various pols with sympathy. The books feels like it was written by someone who already knew it was a good idea not to step on anyone's toes.

She dodges ansering the biggest question teased by the book, whether it serves the public interest to build such stadiums with tax payer money. Her pragmatic conclusion seems to imply that probably isn't, but at least these particular public servants did it in a way that was on time and under budge and that prevented the Vikings from having to change their name to something more tropical for a spot in the sunbelt.

The Metrodome was an exotic part of baseball to me as a kid. In the conclusion of the book she quotes Yankees manager Billy Martin as saying the dome should be banned from baseball. As I recall he lamented that the people of Minnesota had plastered the name of a great man on a dump such as this unattractive stadium on the edge of downtown Minneapolis.

Battlin' Billy was a lot less kind than Senator Amy Klobuchar. The book is forgetable. But I left with the impression that I hope some day a stadium in the Twin Cities is named for her too.


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President Trump (Volume 3-of 3)

Donald Trump has been president for 18 days shy of one year. He has not changed a single smidgeon in that time. He is the same ill-tempered ignorant jackass that 46 percent of our electorate pushed into the White House after our last election.  He is human garbage.

I.  New Buisness: The first 348 days of President Trump.

Just a few weeks ago it seemed very possible that Donald Trump would get through his first year without a single legislative accomplishment.  But the Republican partby rallied to cram a large tax cut through during the last legislative day of 2017.  Somehow, the biggest win of Donald Trump's insurgent presidency was to codify another decade of Paul Ryanomics.  It is a dreadful bill and the consequences of it will be severe.  But like any good confidence game, it will take a while for the marks to realize how bad the deal was. In a week or two people will start seeing more in their paychecks, and that will fortify Trump's political position. 

The Republican party is the party of Donald Trump. Everyone of them has humiliated themselves to get in line behind this towering buffoon in order to appease the donor class with tax cuts and some deregulation. The political consequences of this will be tremendous, but they too will take time to be felt.  For the moment, I have to focus on what the President is doing to the United States.

Earlier this evening he sent a Tweet bragging that his nuclear arsenal is greater than North Korea's. Fifteen minutes later he announced his plans to offer awards for "Fake News" to the media outlets that have covered him critically. Earlier today he Tweeted that the "deep state Department of Justice" was unwilling to prosecute one of his political enemies.  And he tried to take credit for the fact that there were no fatal commercial plane crashes during 2017.  Yes, really.

The time for analysis and hand-wringing is over.  The President is a nutter and all citizens of good conscience will say so, publicly.  I do not know how the Mueller investigation will turn out, but I think the world at large has to hope that it ends with Donald Trump leaving the White House. But the more probably outcome is that we are stuck with him for another 3 years and 18 days. If during that time, you have the opportunity to resist this regime, do so.  You will never regret it.

II. Old Business: The State of My Predictions About Trump.

This is the last time I'm rehashing these predictions.  I'll let my record speak for itself.

1. "The Iran Deal will be torn up."

He deserves SOME credit for not rushing to do this. But he badmouths the deal at every turn and will probably blow it up when things get bad enough for him. For now, I'm happy to be wrong about this.

2.  "Antonin Scalia will be replaced by a conservative rather than Merrick Garland." I'm one for two.

3. "ISIS has a new propaganda talking point."  Yes, that's literally true but we have to give credit where credit is due: the Islamic State has lost a lot of territory in the past year. They don't have a functioning capital anymore and it's not clear how viable they are going forward.  I hope this progress continues but it's premature to say that ISIS won't be soon replaced by something even worse.

4.  "It is now the official policy of the United States government that Climate Change is a hoax perpetrated by China to disrupt American manufacturing. "

Two for four. The nice thing about this one is that the rest of the world is not putting up with our shit.  I hope the rest of the world picks up that slack, but we have to recognize that we won't be able to just saunter back on the world stage and expect to be the world's leading voice on this subject in 2021. 

5. "At some point next year the Congress will repeal Obamacare."  Six up and half a dozen down here.  Full repeal did not happen but the repeal of the individual mandate got slipped into the tax bill.  This will have two terrible consequences- a lot of people will lose coverage and Donald Trump will spin it all as a win.

6. "At some point next year the Congress will pass massive tax cuts and the overwhelming majority of these cuts will benefit very wealthy people."   I'm not really digging the ones I was right on.

7. "Immigration policy is about to become a lot less thoughtful."  This is incredibly true. Of course the Wall remains to be built, but Trump is chipping away at almost every type of immigration and publicly saying he intends to change even popular, formerly non controversial policies like allowing immigrants to sponsor relatives to come here later.  

8. "There will be a bunch of dumb protectionist policies put in place. "

He still doesn't know what a fucking trade deficit is.

9. "The implements of the federal government will be used to settle the president's political scores. " Of course.

10.   "The new school of political science thought will be personality based."  It seems likely that Trump ism will discredit such campaigns for awhile but we're a long way from the end of Trump style politics. If nothing else, it's a way to get ratings. 

III. New Business: What's Next for this Blog.

I only wrote three blog posts during all of 2017.  Two were about Donald Trump and one was about Better Call Saul. The first year of Trump was just too exhausting and hectic to find the time for pieces longer than a Tweet.  

But it's a new year and it's not too soon to start thinking about the end of this foul presidency. The midterm elections will be the big story but as soon as those are over, the 2020 election cycle will begin in earnest.   That election will be the focus of my writing in 2018. In my next post, I will lay out the unscientific probabilities of various outcomes in some detail.  For now, I will just say that I think Trump will run and will be the GOP nominee.  He could win another general election, but for the moment, I think he is more likely to lose. 

So I'll close with an endorsement. What I want in the next president is someone mature, intelligent and serious.  In fact, a boring president sounds awfully good now.  And yes, I want the next president to be a woman.  It is well past time and the best way to get over the fact that we decided to elect an admitted serial sexual offender.  So here is my thinly researched, semi-sentimental endorsement of my preferred 2020 candidate:  I want to vote for Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) because I think she is the person least likely to make we worry about a nuclear war starting from a Twitter beef.  On this night, that sound plenty good.