Debate Night! 2024

The second debate of the 2024 general election will be begin in under four hours.  It is the first debate to include Kamala Harris.  As I usually do, I will post some questions that I would like to hear the candidates be asked tonight.  But first, a quick word about the state of the race.

I believe that Harris will win the popular vote by something between three and six points. I believe she will sweep the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I also think she will win Nevada. I think Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona are true tossups that either candidate could win if the election were today. So my hunch is that she will win one or two of those, but not all three.

This is slightly more bullish than the average forecast, as you can see below.

I. The State of the Race.

The race is very close. Most recent national polls have been within two points. Harris has led in the majority of them, but that doesn't tell us much since she probably needs to win by a point and a half or two points to become president. The professionals and hobbyists who look at this stuff in some detail tend to put the likelihood of either candidate winning somewhere between 40 and 60 percent.

Which of course is making everyone on Politics Twitter mental.  The uncertainty is grating and not everyone is taking it in stride. But I don't think there's much difference between 60/40 and 40/60 when there are eight weeks to go. Here I have round up the predictions from various models and prognosticators. And I'll include myself because well, why not?

That's quite a spread, but of course the two most optimistic forecasts are amateurs with a rooting interest. The real divide seems to be between 538.com and it's prodigal son, Nate Silver. 538 gives Harris a nearly 56 percent chance of winning but Nate only a 38.4 percent chance of winning

II. Questions That Should Be Asked.

1. To Donald Trump, "Who won the 2020 election for president?" 

I'd like to get even more specific and ask Trump which states he is willing to admit that he lost last time. But last week Trump seemed to make some news in admitting on a podcast that he lost "by a whisker." He probably said that to avoid the podcast host from beating him up on election denialism. I think the moderators need to push further on this today because well, shit, democracy matters.

2. To Kamala Harris, "How would you have handed the withdrawal from Afghanistan differently than Joe Biden and Donald Trump did?"

I continue to believe that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the most successful large-scale operation carried out by the American military this century. Many disagree with me on that, although, none of them can name one more successful.  But this is an issue and I want to hear both her talk about it and Trump respond to it.

3.  To Donald Trump. "You are awfully fond of Vladimir Putin,  the House of Saud, Xi Jinping and Kim Jung Un. Do you believe it is important for America to promote democracy abroad?"

I am recycling this from my post about the June debate, because I think it's a great question.

4. For Kamala Harris: "Why specifically did you change your views on fracking since 2019?"

5. For Donald Trump: "The first time you ran for president you promised to balance the budge and pay off the debt in four years. Your current campaign is predicated on a lot of tax cuts and a lot of new spending. The only new revenue source you have endorsed are tariffs on all imported goods. Have you crunched the numbers on all of these plans and how much do you think the national debt will be four years form now if you are elected."

6. For Kamala Harris " Do you think that any tariffs currently in place contributed to the inflation of the past few years and will you repeal or reduce any of them?

7. For Both Candidates:  Three out of four of your parents were immigrants. Mr. Trump's father was born about 2 year after his parents arrived in this country from Germany.  Why do you think so many voters s have hostile feelings about recently arrived Americans and what will you do to change that?

As always, I would also like to have them answer the questions on the test to become a naturalized citizen but I don't think we will get anything like that tonight.

III. If This Were a Baseball Game.

As the election proceeds, I will play around with probabilities from a different passion, baseball.  

To think of think of the election as a baseball game. We'll treat the remaining weeks as innings. And we'll make Harris the home team, since we are root, root, rooting for her and if she doesn't win it will be a shame. 

So with eight weeks to go, the game goes to the second inning today. 

A. 538 Baseball Forecast: The game is tied in the top of the 2nd. There is one out and no runners on base.

B. Nate Silver Baseball Forecast.  The visitors have a 2-0 lead in the top of the second. There are two outs and no runners on base.

Bottom Line: A lot of baseball left to be played.

 

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Four)

Folks, the tide has turned. Kamala Harris has had an amazing month of good fortune and better politics. For the first few months of this year I assumed that voters would eventually reconcile themselves to the fact that they had to choose between two old declining men and enough of them would choose the one who wasn't evil. 

But Father Time came for Joe Biden a little faster than I expected. Remarkably, he recognized that this was true, or at least the fact that the public believed it was true, so he stepped aside in favor of his vice-president. Then the institutional party rallied behind this decision. Since becoming the presumptive nominee, she has made a very popular choice for running mate, posted incredible fundraising numbers and staged a string of flawless campaign rallies. 

Now America has a choice between an old man, malevolent in being, choleric in temperament and declining in his faculties or a woman in the prime of life, upbeat in bearing and riding a wave of good sentiment that should carry through her convention. When the dust settles around Labor Day, this could be looking like the best presidential election cycle for Democrats since 2008.

But let's not get over our skis just yet. Harris hasn't done an interview, press conference or debate yet. A lot can go wrong and it's inevitable that a she will have a bad press cycle or two between now and November 5th. But for now, she is the favorite. And her opponent seems incapable of adjusting to this reality. 

The electoral college favors the Republican party. A few bad bounces could lead to another 2016 where Trump rides a lucky streak to the White House. He can win Pennsylvania and I'm not lighting any cigars until  that state is called on Election Night (Or the day after. Maybe Thursday. Seriously, folks, margins matter in PA. Let's get this done in a timely manner.)

I. The Roads to 270.

The colored chart at the top of this post is a list of every electoral contest from deepest blue DC to brightest red Wyoming. I don't do toss-ups, because that's boring. But any state or district in a pale color could reasonably won by either party. The darker shades are "safe." But I use that term a little more loosely than more serious outlets. They are safe for now. They are safe in a close election. I'll move the bricks around as polling and prediction markets shift. 

A. The Safe Blue 226.

Just a month ago, team Trump was eyeing Minnesota and Virginia. Trump himself was making noise about New Jersey. (That last one was never going to happen.) But for now, I thin those states are off the board. Unless something horrible happens in the next 87 days, Harris-Walz will win at least 20 contests worth 226 electoral votes.

B. The Swinging 93.

i. Michigan. This state is trending blue and I'd be shocked if Harris doesn't win it. Polymarket gives Harris as 62% chance of winning it. Until that gets over 70%, I'll leave it where it is. (Five Thirty Eight has not yet turned their forecast back on which is embarrassing).

ii. Wisconsin. Also trending blue, but not quite as fast as MI. Polymaket has it 56/44.

iii. Pennsylvania: WI and MI get Harris to 251. From there the clearest path is Pennsylvania, which gets her to exactly 270. The most recent polls have looked good there and I think Harris will probably win it. But let's face it 270 to 268 is a terrifying proposition. Especially for the 270 members of the electoral college in the states that vote for Biden. (And their alternates-thank God the electors have alternates.)

iv. Nevada.  If there is one state to flip because of the switch from Biden to Harris, it is this one. Biden was polling terribly there and Trump was polling weirdly well there all year long. I guess they like casino owners, even lousy ones. But Harris stepping in has led to a swift endorsement by the big culinary union there and it looks like the Reid machine will carry this one over the line for now. If I owned a polling company, I would spend a lot of money on this state the next two months. If Harris doesn't win PA, she probably has to win Nevada.

v. Georgia. After Pennsylvania, this state is most likely to put Harris over the top. If she wins the 251 states, plus NV and GA, she'll be at 273. A slightly less terrifying scenario than 270 to 268.

vi. North Carolina.  If I had to predict the closest margin in this election, I would pick NC. The Dems have only carried it once in the last 11 cycles but the state is nudging its way leftward and the Republicans, God love them, have nominated an absolute nutter to be their candidate for governor. It was the only state that Trump won by a narrow margin in 2020 and I hope this year it will fall the other way.

vii. Arizona.  This is another state that was very close last time and in which the Party of Lincoln has chosen a full-blown lunatic for the senate race. She will lose. But for some reason, this state feels like a reach for Harris. Polymarket still favors Trump there and I'm not ready to bet against that. Picking Kelly for Veep would have helped, of course. But I don't think AZ will be the tipping point state, so it's probably not worth worrying about. And Harris certainly has a chance to win, especially if Trump keeps making his cognitive decline so obvious.

C. The Safe Red 219.

I have written somewhat cautiously so far. I am very encouraged by the current state of the race. But I know there are limits to the popularity of the Democratic party and I'm not about to discount the possibility of attacks on Kamala Harris sticking with a certain kind of "independent voter" who think the President of the United States should be man, just the way more sensible folks believe that James Bond should always be a man. (Or God, if that's your thing.)

Part of my caution stems from the fact that I don't see Harris flipping any big states that Trump won in 2020. Florida could wind up being close. But it makes little senses for Harris to commit the kind of resources it would probably take for her to win there. Texas was fairly close last time, but I don't seeing it moving nearly five points to the left in a second consecutive cycle.  Ohio might be closer than last time and that's good news for Sherrod Brown's senate campaign. But it's not flipping Blue

One persistent prediction I have made is that Florida will again vote to the left of Texas this time. And I think they will both be Red in the end, whether by one point or five.  (The last time TX voted to the left of FL was 1988-when Dukakis-Bentsen lost FL by 22 points but Texas by 12 and 1/2 points. Good job, Lloyd!)

Other than NC, it's hard to see where Harris picks off a state that voted for Trump twice. She might win both of Maine's congressional districts, but that's hardly a trivial effect on the election. If we're talking about a blow out, then Iowa and Alaska could become kind of, sort of close. But if we're worried about that in November, then this will be a good cycle indeed.

II. The Bottom Line.

This election will be decided in seven states worth a total of 93 electoral votes. Kamala Harris needs to win 44 of those 91 votes. Trump needs to win 51 to win outright or 50 to get a 269-269 tie and force it to the House of Representatives*. 

The contours of this are shaped by how the three Blue Wall states vote. 

A. Harris has 3 Paths to winning at least 44 of these votes:

a. The Blue Wall: WI+MI+PA (exactly 44)

b. The Hybrid: Any two Blue Wall States plus NV+ GA or NC (47)

c. The Southern Belles:  NV+AZ+ GA + NC (49)

I do not see the Southern Strategy working. If Harris gets swept in the Rust Belt states, she probably does not win all four southern states. But stranger things have happened.

B. Trump's Needs A Rust Belt Swing State to get to 270:

The good news is that Trump has to win at least one of the Blue Wall states. The bad news is that winning one or more of them gives him several paths to 270.

If Trump wins one of the three Blue swing states, he has the following paths:

If Pennsylvania,  he is up to 238 and he needs either: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia 

b. North Carolina or Georgia plus NV and Arizona.

If Michigan, he is up to 235 and he needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and NV or Arizona.

If Wisconsin, he's up to 229 and needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states, he's up to at least 244 and needs to get 26 more. 

a. Georgia plus North Carolina  

b. Georgia OR North Carolina plus Nevada AND Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states and one of them is Pennsylvania then he's up to at least 248 and needs to get 22 more. 

a. Georgia and North Carolina

b. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan but not Wisconsin, then he's up to at least 253 and needs to get 17 more. 

a. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

b. Arizona and Nevada.

If Trump wins All  Three of the Rust Belt states, he's up to at least 263 and needs to get 7 more. 

a. Any of the four southern swing states would probably work. House of Representatives. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona would give him a clean win. Nevada would make it a 269 to 269 tie, which means that Trump probably gets elected president by the House of Representatives*. 

We're Doing this, America. We're Doing This Again.

 

The first debate of the 2024 general election is tonight. This is very early for a general election debate but this debate is important because we are likely to only get one more after tonight. 

It's also important because I think tonight will be the night that the average American finally accepts the fact that this election will be between the same two guys as last time. So I want to get a few thoughts out there.

1. Expectations.

The first debate is always bad for the incumbent. Trump got his ass kicked. Obama got his ass kicked. W got his ass kicked. GHW Bush came in third. Reagan did so poorly that concerns about his age came back out in the public. Only Bill Clinton held his own. Nixon didn't do any debates.

My explanation for this is that sitting presidents are not used to being on a stage with someone who must be treated as an equal. They are to used to having people defer to them and it disorients them when an opponent pushes back on everything they say.

But tonight might be different. For one thing, these are both men who have been president. And for another, Donald Trump lives in a bubble of ass-kissing sycophants way bigger than the West Wing of the White House.  Biden also has the advantage of not being crazy.

The Republicans have spent four years telling their voters that Joe Biden is a drooling moron. About a week ago they realized this was a mistake and have since been speculating that Biden will be hyped on something or other. (Some say Gatorade, other say prescription drugs. I wish I was making this up but we really do live in a very dumb time.

Biden does have to avoid looking old. He will probably have at least one moment where he looks confused or uses the wrong name, gets a fact wrong or maybe embellishes the truth a little. That's not great. But the guy at the other podium will be ranting and swearing and lying.

II. Questions That Should Be Asked.

1. To Donald Trump, "Who won the 2020 election for president?" Joe Biden's response better begin with something like, "He's not man enough to admit he lost."

2. To Joe Biden, "Should voters have any cause for concern related to your age and physical health. (Biden will have some canned line ready for this but it's a valid question. I'd like both of them to have to answer it.)

3. To Joe Biden, "Tell the American people why withdrawing from Afghanistan benefitted them."

I could do an hour on this. Joe only needs to do a minute and a half.

4. To Donald Trump. "You are awfully fond of Vladimir Putin,  the House of Saud, Xi Jinping and Kim Jung Un. Do you believe it is important for America to promote democracy abroad?"

5. To Joe Biden. "Do you regret any of  the policy choices you made that led to the high inflation we experienced in 2022 and 2023?"

6. To Donald Trump, "One third of American women now live in states with total or near-total bans on abortion. This is because three of your appointees voted to overturn Roe vs. Wade. Do you think that was good for America?"

7. For both of them. "Why do you think tariffs on imports are a good idea? Why do both of you think that your tariffs work but the other guy's don't?

I'd also like to see them have to answer some of the questions for the naturalized citizenship test, but that's a bit too much to ask for.

III. The Response.

Hopefully Biden has a good night like he did on the State of the Union. Hopefully he avoids losing his cool at the loser eight feet away from him. Hopefully he smiles and looks up beat. Hopefully the American people remember how crazy and unpleasant Donald Trump is.

But both sides will declare victory. That's how they do. And if the polls are bad for Trump, he'll roll out his VP announcement to change the subject. 

 

Four More Years But For Whom? (2024 General Election Forecast, Take One)

Both candidates are old and familiar. They both skated to their respective nominations with ease. Both are unpopular with the median voter. And a significant segment of the general public still seem to think that some other candidate is going to walk through a spring-loaded door on a white horse and promise the world exactly whatever the hell that particular voter wants to hear and nothing else.

But that's not going to happen. There are two choices for president in 2024. And while they share all of the above-stated qualities, only one is a corrupt convicted criminal. Only one is an insufferable narcissist who intends to use the next four years to settle scores with his enemies, perceived and real.

The other candidate happens to be an extremely competent and accomplished president. The other candidate has overseen an incredible economic performance, drastic reduction in crime all while ending our longest, dumbest war and leading a coalition of democracies to defend Europe from the vile imperial ambitions of Putin's Russia.

I. WHERE THE RACE STANDS.

In the 538.com model, the race is a dead heat. As of this writing, the last 1,000 simulations had Biden winning 501 times and Trump winning 499 times. (If you assume the House of Representatives would vote for the Republican, as seems likely.)

The Economist model favors Trump. In their simulations, Trump wins 68 percent of the time and Biden wins 32 percent of the time. The betting markets also favor Trump, by a narrow margin on Predictit, more widely in some others.

I think the disparity between the models comes down to the weight given to Biden's approval numbers, which are bad. The polls do seem to give Trump a slight edge but I am reluctant to put too much weight on those just yet for the following reasons:

1. It's June. Polls are not predictions. They are snap shots in time. 

2. A lot of people, bless their hearts, do not believe that Trump and Biden will be the nominees. I knew this was crazy a year ago but to believe it at this point is lunacy. Unless either one of them dies in the next four months, we are getting a rematch. But as recently as three days ago, you could spend 79 cents to get a $1 stake in Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee for President. Right now that number is up to 85. It should be in the mid-90s.  No one is walking through that door to replace Joe Biden. If he does die, the nominee will be Kamala Harris. If you don't understand this, I can't take you seriously.

3. The polls are drastically overstating the appeal of third party candidates. The 538 model currently has Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting almost 8 percent of the vote. I doubt he will get half of that. But polls are not capturing the fact that he has been struggling to raise money and only has confirmed ballot access in six states. 

For practical purposes, the election is currently tied. And I believe it will remain so well into October. I hate the phrase "if the election were held today" because, well, the election is not held in the middle of June. But if the election were held today, Donald Trump would probably win. The good news of course, is that today is June 22nd. A lot will happen in the next 19+ weeks and I remain confident that Joe Biden will win when it counts.  But let's talk about how we get there.

A. WHY BIDEN SHOULD WIN.

1. He is a very good president. His legislative accomplishments speak for themselves. He took over during a terrible pandemic and the United States has lapped the world in recovery from it by every metric you can think of. Job 

2. He is the incumbent and the economy is doing well. This should be the ball game but a lot of people tell pollsters that the economy is bad, which seems related only to the effects of inflation. For the record, inflation is lower here than in the rest of the wealthy world, and has been dropping like a rock. But you probably know that because you are smart enough to read this blog.

3. Abortion.  Most Americans believe that abortion should not be criminalized. But the Trump appointees to the Supreme Court has give that option to states and nearly half of the states have chosen to make abortion illegal under all or most circumstances. 

4. The defense of democracy and freedom.  Joe Biden has accomplished some great things in foreign policy and he gets almost no credit for them with the average voter. He ended our longest, dumbest war. He stood with Ukraine when Putin invaded and he called out the savagery of Hamas for its attack on Israel. None of these choices have been easy and all have had some political downside. But it's 2024. Ukraine stands. NATO is stronger and when was the last time you heard someone say, "Boy, I wish we were still occupying Kabul."  

4. His administration has been scandal-free. There have been no high-level resignations. No indictments. No real scandals other than garden variety Fox News fodder about really small ball stuff.  (And the unfortunate crimes of Hunter Biden, the president's son. I happen to think that Hunter's travails make his father more sympathetic, but yeah it's a talking point that Trumpers will not tire of using.)

5. His opponent wants to end social security as we know it. Trump is smarter than the average Republican so he plays a little coy with, but I sure hope the Democrats put this issue to their advantage this year. 

6. His opponent is a raving lunatic and a convicted criminal. 

B. WHY TRUMP COULD WIN.

1. Biden is unpopular. His approval rating is right about 40%. That is low. I think a lot of this is attributable to his age, but a lot of it has to do with inflation and the fact that a good chunk of people have simply forgotten that he inherited a mess from Trump and had to devote a lot of energy to fixing that. 

2. Immigration.  I hate to say it, but Trump's enduring popularity has a lot to do with his insane opposition to immigrants other than beautiful women from Eastern Europe. The border situation has improved, but Americans really do not like what they see on the news about it. And they don't like seeing migrants panhandling on streets.  The American people are afraid of immigrants and that fact is staggeringly sad. But for now, this is a political reality.

3. Americans love rich people. I am 50 years old. The economic history of this country for the past 50 years is a cycle of a Republican president getting elected, cutting taxes, running up enormous debt and leading us into recession. Then a Democrat gets elected, cuts the deficit spending, creates a lot of jobs and tries to restore some level of sane financial regulations. Then the voters decide they want a Republican to cut taxes, so we run back for the ditch.

But voters will still tell you that the Republican party is the party of fiscal responsibility. And the party that they trust to handle the economy. And they still believe that the government should be run like a business. It's a fundamental flaw of our civic literacy. And like the aversion to immigration, it's a political fact.

4. The Right Wing is more united than it was four years ago.  In 2020 at least some hardcore right-wing thinkers were aware of Trump's awfulness enough to publicly support Joe Biden. But four years of modest regulatory enhancements and (even more modest) changes to the tax code are enough to put many of them back in the Trump column. Some of them now figure Conservatism can survive Trump and a second Trump term is their last shot at enacting some wild-ass reforms to our federal government. 

There will always be some Never Trump Republicans. But even sane Republicans are refusing to endorse Joe Biden. They don't see an upside in it.  

5. Cultural Nonsense. 

I am putting this last because it's incredibly unimportant substantively but Trump and the Republicans do seem to have a slight advantage from energizing their voters about such weight issues as a trans woman playing softball in some Junior College or any crime committed by an undocumented immigrant. This stuff ranges from petty to tawdry but it certainly consumes the thoughts of a certain segment of bored old people. 

II. The Forecast.

Joe Biden won the last election with 306 electoral votes. Because of reapportionment with the last census, the Biden states are now worth 304 votes. The Trump states are worth 234.

 1. The Road to 270.

I am very confident that Biden will win 225 electoral votes.

To get to 270, his best path is to add:  Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1) Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).

That's a too close for comfort 270 to 268 win. That would leave the nation's collective rectum tight enough to sharpen a pencil for two months.

So Biden wants to win somewhere else. The good news is he has several options. The bad news is he's not a clear favorite to win any of them.

2. The Cushion Opportunities

a. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes).  This state has gone blue in four consecutive election cycles but the margin has dropped from 13 percent in 2008 to seven percent in 2012, to 2.4 percent in both 2016 and 2020. The Nevada Dems have pulled some close elections out in recent cycles but this year it's a true toss-up.

b. Georgia  (16 votes). Trending blue for several cycles but still red in its DNA. This state can be won if black turnout is high. 

c. Arizona (11 votes) A true purple state. Basically a coin toss. Biden is helped by abortion and by Kari Lake being on the ballot for the Republican senate race. But Trump is helped by the border situation and the higher than usual percentage of crazy retirees. 

3. The One Pickup Opportunity.

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) is the only state that Biden lost by less than 3 points in 2020. If we have a genuine rightward shift in this election, than Trump will hold it. But NC is getting more diverse and the GOP nominated an absolute whack job for governor, so I think Biden has a shot here.

4. The Trump States.

I just don't see another pickup opportunity.  I think Trump has 219 electoral votes pretty well sewn up, and they probably think Arizona and Georgia will come home. 

If I had to pick the next closest Red state, I would say Florida. Biden lost Florida by 3.3 points and the state Democratic party got trounced in the mid terms. But they have shown signs of life since then and DeSantis is less popular than he was 2 years ago.  I still think Trump will win it but I think the margin will be two to four points. 

It's trendy to say that 2024 is the year that Texas will vote to the left of Florida. I don't buy it. I think Texas goes for Trump by five to seven points. Everything to the right of that is a solid red wall. The best we can hope for is a closer than usual margin in Alaska.

So here is My Honest but Slightly Optimistic Prediction of the 2024 Presidential Election. All of the red is solid and a lot of the blue is pale. That's the state of the race.  I don't think I will updating it again for a while. But we have a debate, a candidate sentencing and two conventions that will be here before you know it. So maybe things will change. (By the way, I think Trump will pick Douglas Burgum as his running mate. Or maybe he will go off the board and choose some retired general or state legislator from a swing state. But my money is on Burgum.)

One last word on the popular vote. I think it will be closer this time than last. I think Trump will do better in both New York and California than he did last time. That won't affect him but it could mean an extra seat or two in the House Republican caucus. I also think some young people will stay home this time, which is a real shame. If Trump wins,  we will be living with Trumpism for a good long while.

The 538 model predicts the popular vote will be Biden 47.2, Trump 45.2, Kennedy 7.5.

I will go with Biden 49.8, Trump 46.1, Kennedy 3.5. Others 2.0%

.

Michitahsouridahadcuper Tuesday

In keeping with my half-assed approach to following and forecasting the 2024 presidential primaries, here is a look back at Michigan and several unimportant states, with a view toward tomorrow's "Super Tuesday" action.  

I. Michigan- GOP.

My final call was  "So let's go with Trump 72%, Haley 27%, Others 1."

The final result was Trump 68, Haley 27, Others: 5.

So I nailed Haley's number but underestimated how popular "Uncommitted" is in this state. Uncommitted got a full 3 points and the dropouts combined for 2 percent, including DeSantis who got 1.2%.

Giving myself an A-. 

II. Michigan -Democratic

My final call was "So let's go with: Biden 76% Uncommitted 15% Phillips 7% Williamson 2%."

The final result was: Biden 81, Uncommitted 13, Williamson 3 and Phillips 3.

I short-changed Biden, slightly over estimated Uncommitted, slept on Marianne's enduring popularity on the fringe and comically over-estimated Phillips, who is a loser.

Let's call it a B+. I was close on the important candidates.

III. Missouri, Utah, Michigan (convention) and DC-GOP only.

Since last Tuesday, four other contests gave out delegates to the Republican convention. Trump swept the delegates given on Saturday (126 of them) and then Haley won all 19 delegates from Washington DC by getting 1,274 votes from various trust fund babies and congressional staffers while Trump only managed to get 676 votes from lobbyists and the relatives of January 6th inmates.

Congrats to Nikki! She won't be shut out.

IV. State of the Race and Super Tuesday.

Both races are over. Biden and Trump will be the nominees of their parties and only a major health calamity can avoid a November rematch between these two altacockers.

I think Biden has performed slightly better than expectations. Michigan was the first place where he faced a coordinated opposition and it only managed to win 2 delegates. The 2024 DNC will be a coronation inside the United Center and probably a shit show outside on Madison street.

Trump has also done what he needs to do. He is sailing towards this nomination and is likely to all but clinch it after tomorrow's race. He currently has 244 delegates and will likely win 29 from the ND caucus today. That will put him about 950 delegates away from the 1,215 he needs to be the nominee.

V. My GOP predictions for tomorrow:

1. Vermont: Trump by 4. This is the only race tomorrow where Haley has a chance of winning, mostly because it still has a functioning moderate state GOP whose leaders have endorsed Haley. She is also helped by the fact that any registered voter can vote in the GOP primary.

The delegate math is interesting here because if either candidate gets a majority, they will get all 17 delegates. But Vermont is quirky so it's theoretically possible that the DeSantis/Christi voters could make a 49-45 result, which would split the delegates.

That said, I'm thinking Trump gets over 50% and thus all 17 delegates. But hey, Haley could make the state count 49-1 instead of 50-0 and that would piss off Trump, so I'm rooting for Nikki here.

2. Virginia: Trump by 12.  (Haley 5 delegates)

3. Minnesota: Trump by 27. (Haley 12 delegates)

4. Massachusetts: Trump by 23.  (Haley 6 delegates)

5. Colorado: Trump by 31.  (Haley 2 delegates)

6. Maine: Trump by 40.  

7. North Carolina: Trump by 44. (Haley 6 delegates)

8. Texas: Trump by 47. (Haley 4 delegates)

9. Alabama: Trump by 63.(Haley 2 delegates)

10. Alaska: Trump by 38. (Haley 8 delegates)

11. Tennessee: Trump by 54. (Haley 3 delegates)

12. Oklahoma: Trump by 66.

13. Arkansas: Trump by 70. (Haley 5 delegates).

270 to win has a great breakdown of the delegate allocation math for the Republicans. Just click on a state to check the numbers:  

https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/

So I'm saying Trump will go 13 for 13 and win the delegate haul by 812 to 53.

A good night for Haley looks like this: she wins Vermont. She keeps Virginia close and she gets over 75 delegates.

No matter how the voting goes, I expect her to make a Rubio style victory speech around 10PM eastern. On Wednesday we'll start to hear about staffers being let go. She'll suspend the campaign, either on Friday afternoon or during one last Sunday morning TV show. 

VI: My Democratic Predictions for Tomorrow.

Biden leads the current delegate count with 206. There are 2 Uncommitted delegates. Phillips and Williamson have exactly zero delegates.

There are 1,420 delegates at stake tomorrow and it's entirely possible that Biden will win over 1,400 of them.

A. Biden will win by very large margins and sweep the delegates in: California, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Utah

B. Uncommitted or some other candidate might win a delegate or two if they have a great night in a congressional district in: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Virginia

C. Phillips should win at least a couple delegates in: Minnesota

D.  Phillips and Williamson could win a delegate or two each in Iowa

A good night for Biden is 1,400 delegates. A good night for Phillips is over 10 delegates. A good night for Williamson is more than 2 delegates.

Like I said, the race is over. But the details will be fun to dissect. And after this, we'll be only eight months away from the general election.

South Carochigan

A Look Back at South Carolina (GOP).

 I did not bother to write a blog post for the GOP South Carolina primary. But I did Tweet out my prediction, which was Trump 64%, Haley 36%. The final result was 60% to 40%. Let's call that a B+ for me.

The tone of the coverage of this result is that Nikki Haley over performed. And she did-slightly. But she still lost her home state by just over 20 points. If hers was a serious campaign, this would have been its death knell.  But hers is not a serious campaign. 

But hers is not a serious campaign, so she is pressing on to Michigan and (I think) to Super Tuesday after that. So we have to humor her for awhile longer. Onward and upward...

A Look Ahead to Michigan

I. GOP.

Let's look at the trendlines.

Iowa: Trump 51, Haley 19 (in 3rd place)

New Hampshire: Trump 54, Haley 43

Nevada: Roughly Trump 72, Haley 28. 

This is based on Trump's 59K votes in the caucus against Haley's 23K votes in the non-binding primary. This is an imperfect comparison but when you remember that 47K votes were cast for "None of the Above" in the caucus, mostly by Trump supporters, I don't think this is unfair to Haley.

South Carolina: Trump 60, Haley 40.

So yes, Haley did better in the state where she was recently governor than in the other states. But I don't see that continuing elsewhere:

So let's go with Trump 72%, Haley 27%, Others 1.

II. Democratic.

Biden is going to win, but the margin here will matter because there has been an organized campaign by many progressives and Arab leaders to vote for "Uncommitted" instead of Biden. This is intended as a protest of Israel's war in Gaza.

I of course do not agree with this protest. But I'm glad it's happening. It's a relatively harmless way for people to express their extremely understandable feelings about a subject of great importance to them. They deserve to have this chance to express those feelings.

And it's a chance for the rest of-election nerds, the institutional Democratic party and the administration to measure  just how serious this movement is for November. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 150K votes. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 11K votes.  So let's see what kind of numbers this protest can turn out.

I do hasten to add that "Uncommitted" got 21K votes and nearly 11% of the vote in 2012 when Barack Obama was running without an opponent. And not every single vote cast for Uncommitted tomorrow will be a vote of sympathy for the Palestinian people. But most will. 

If Uncommitted gets under 15% of the vote, then this campaign will be a disappointment. Anything between 15% and 20% will be worth noting. But Biden only really needs to worry if they clear 20%.

So let's go with:

Biden 76%

Uncommitted 15%

Phillips 7%

Williamson 2%.

 

Nevadalina

Today was a pretty great day for American democracy.

First, the Circuit Court for the District of Columbia emphatically ruled that Trump's assertions of Presidential immunity were poppy cock. And just now the House of Representatives voted down the insane attempt to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas for.....well they never really said.  

Tonight is also the next game night for American democracy, the 2024 Nevada primary.

As always, we first look back at the previous game. The Democratic primary in South Carolina.

Below are my official picks and the (actual results).

Biden 83%  (96.2%)

Phillips 13%  (1.7%)

Others: 4%   (2.1%)

I hope it does not scandalize you to know that I was under the misimpression that Marianne Williamson had dropped out when I made this prediction.  She had not and still has not, bless her heart.  She is the only "Others" included in the above result, somehow claiming a silver medal over an actual living, breathing member of the House of Representatives.

In hindsight, this makes sense. A vote for Phillips is a vote for Biden's policy in a younger body. But if you want to protested Biden for any reason other than age, Williamson was the only option. I suspect she can credit her second place finish to the small number of SC Democrats who wanted to tell Joe Biden that they did not like his handling of the war in Gaza.

I'm going to give myself a gentleman's C on this forecast. Yes, I missed the mark by 13 percent, but who could possibly have seen a 96 coming?  This isn't Swaziland. 

The more significant number though was turnout. Just four percent of eligible voters turned out. Some of them will want to vote in the Republican primary at the end of the month. But most simply realized that this was not an event worth showing up for. 

So we are on to Nevada. This time I do know exactly who is on the ballot-Biden, Wlliamson, and a  bunch of weirdoes not named Dean Phillips. Voters will also have the option of voting for "None of These." This gives us an ability to measure the protest vote. So without further ado, here are my ofiicial predictions:

Biden 74.9%

Williamson 2.7%

None of These 19.8%

Others: 2.6%.

Onward and upward to Michigan.

elow are my official picks and the (actual results).

New South Hampshire Carolina

 I have not been posting about the primaries as much this year as the last few cycles for the very sensible reason that we know who both nominees will be.  But I don't want to ignore the news all together, so here is my look back at NH and look forward to SC.

New Hampshire: I Nailed It.

Here are my predictions for the Republican primary with the actual results in parenthesis.

Donald Trump: 54.1%   (54.3%)

Nikki Haley       43.9%   (43.2%)

Binkley                0.5%   (0.1%)

Others:                 1.5%  (2.0%)

I should have lumped Binkley in with "Others", but I wanted to give the guy a fair shot since he was the only declared candidate still in the races of any stature at all. 

Just want to point out that my slight error was to overestimate Nikki Haley's performance. But boy am I less guilty of that than any mainstream pundit.

Here are my predictions for the Democratic primary with the actual results in parenthesis:

Joe Biden: 64.3%  (63.9%)

Dean Phillips: 16.7%  (19.6%)

Marianne Williamson: 8.2%  (4%)

Others: 10% (12.5%)

The key number here was Biden. He was a write-in candidate and those are hard to predict. My only slight mistake was underrating Dean slightly and overrating Marianne Williamson. (I can't help it. She's wonderful, isn't she? So sad that her grift is now dead.)

Giving myself an A on this one. Close to an A+ on Republican and somewhere between A and A- on the Democratic side.  

South Carolina: Not Much Suspense.

South Carolina has been pivotal in the last 3 contested Democratic races. Obama winning in 2008, Bernie losing in 2016 and Biden crushing all of hos opponents in 2016 can largely explain the last four Democratic presidential contests.

The stakes are lower today. But Biden could use a big number. This is his first time on the ballot in this cycle and a crushing might push Dean Phillips back to the back benches of Congress where he belongs for the next 11 months.

So here's the official pick:

Biden 83%

Phillips 13%

Others: 4%

Williamson will get some votes and there will be write-ins. But nothing to move the needle.  Most  likely, Biden will win all 29 delegates.

About November.

Still holding off on my first official general election forecast. But I feel good about things. There has been a stream of good economic news. And it looks like we might just get a substantial ceasefire in Gaza soon.

The Republicans don't have a real contest for the next three weeks. But Haley's polling in SC has cratered. At some point soon she might admit that it's better to withdraw than to lose her home state by 25 or 30 points.

The public is slowly waking up to the reality of a Trump-Biden rematch. Polling for now is still all over the place. But I think that will change over the next six weeks or so. 

My confidence of a Biden win this November is up to about 60%. Details to follow. 

New Hampshire-What Will We Learn?

 Iowa: What Did We Learn?

Very little. The result pretty much matched the polls. But a quick moment of self-reflection. Here are my predicted vote percentages for Iowa with the actual result in ( ). 

      Trump 53% (51%)

      Haley 21% (19%

      DeSantis 20% (21%)

      Ramaswamy: 5% (7.7%)

      Hutchinson: 1% (0.2%)

Pretty close, but I did have Haley in second and Ron in second. That didn't work out.  Give myself a B+.

New Hampshire: What to Expect.

We're about 14 minutes away from the results in Dixville Notch and that other stupid town up north. But that won't tell us much.

Since Iowa, The third, fourth and sixth place finishers have all dropped out. (Shout out Ryan Binkley who finished ahead of Asa Hutchinson in Iowa and then stayed on to fight in New Hampshire! Well done, weird nobody.)

DeSantis and Ramaswamy have both endorsed Trump. The polls this week suggest that most of their votes are going to go with Trump. He is a very heavy favorite to win and very well might run up a big margin.

But New Hampshire does have a contrarian streak. They don't like to vote for the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. And Trump had a few hiccups on the trail this week, so maybe he won't quite crush it.  There also could be some Democrats voting in the Republican race to just drag it out a little longer.

Here's my official prediction:

Donald Trump: 54.1%

Nikki Haley       43.9%

Binkley                0.5%

Others:                 1.5%  (Strays for Christie, DeSantis, etc.)

What Does Haley Need?

To even dream about being the nominee, she needs a win. She's not getting that. But if she can get 45% of the vote, than she might be tempted to hang in there a little longer and see if the donor class keeps her afloat just in case DJT strokes out in the next month.

If she loses by more than 15, she probably drops out tomorrow night or Wednesday morning. The humiliation of losing South Carolina to Trump would be too much to bare. (And the donor class won't waste their money on her.

What About the Dems?

There is a Democratic Primary tomorrow too but it won't be sending any delegates to Chicago and Joe Biden isn't on the ballot.

That said, there's like 25 other people in the ballot and no small number of Granite Staters are pissed off that the Democratic party took away their monopoly on being the first in the nation primary. So this number could be interesting.

Biden will win and he should do so with an outright majority. If he doesn't, and Nikki Haley drops out, the media will try to make the Democratic race feel competitive. (It isn't.)

But once again in the breach, here I go:

Joe Biden: 64.3%

Dean Phillips: 16.7%

Marianne Williamson: 8.2%

The other weirdoes and spoiled ballots will be like 10%.

Ooooh, Dixville Notch and Hart's Crotch are going to be announcing in a minute.....

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

El Camino (The Road to 306, Take One)

Writing about the 2020 presidential election feels as timely as writing about the Treaty of Ghent. So much has happened since then-a 5 day delay to find out the official winner, a two month long period of denial and attempted theft by the loser, a literal riot that almost derailed the certification process and did cause an impeachment trial. But accountability is a part what we do here, so let's take one final look back at my predictions.

I. I Was (Mostly) Right.

"Well, I was wrong and I was wrong loud. I'm the Dick Morris of 2016."

Your correspondent, the day after the 2016 election.

I did better this time. I got 48 states right, all but Florida and North Carolina.   I predicted the popular vote to be 52.6% to 45.2%.  It wound up being 51.3% to 46.9%. 

The night I posted my final prediction, a Twitter follower who really knows the numbers said that if I was right, Biden might get 80 million votes. Well, he got over 81 million, despite underperforming my estimated percentage by about a point and a half.  So the real surprise of the 2020 election was not the winner or the margin but the turn out. A LOT of people voted this time around. 

November 3rd and 4th, 2020 may be the first time that being an uber-election nerd actually improved my life. Yes, I was concerned when I saw the terrible numbers in Florida. But I didn't panic. And I have the screen shots to prove it:

That was in response to my text chain freaking out about the early returns. By the next morning, (coincidentally my birthday), most of them had  moved on to lamenting the size of Biden's win.

It wound up being 306. And it wound up being seven million. Ten million would have been nice. But seven million votes is a pretty clear message to the loser-we don't like you.

Of course, Trump did turn out his people. That's what kept the race closer than it should have been. There are a few conclusions we can draw from his performance in November.

II. The Biggest Lessons Learned.

1. Jared figured out Florida. 

For the 2nd straight election, Donald Trump performed better than the polls and pundits expected. For all his cartoonish behavior and general incompetence, he twice pulled off campaigns that held together and functioned as well as could be expected. His clown show did not come off the rails enough to earn him the humiliation that he deserved to suffer.

Trump won Florida in 2016 by just over one point with 4.61 million votes. The early voting data seems to suggest a very close race and a lot of prognosticators thought it pointed toward a Democratic victory. Indeed, a lot of Democrats did turn out in 2020. Joe Biden got 5.297 million votes, almost 800K more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. But Biden lost by almost three points.

Jared Kushner figured out how to keep the Cuban-American voters in the Trump camp. The moment Miami-Dade numbers came in was the only time that I seriously wondered if Trump was going to win again.  But Trump also did well among Venezuelan and Puerto Rican voters in other parts of the state. Their ground game for early voting was excellent. Governor DeSantis probably deserves some of the credit for this, but the simple fact is that Florida moved from a true toss-up state to leans-Republican for the next cycle. 

2. Trump made advances with non-white voters.

Trump won white men by 23 points and with women by 11. Joe Biden won black and latin voters of both genders by tremendous margins. This is not surprising, but the trend between 2016 and 2020 migh surprise you. 

Joe Biden made a significant advance among white men. He lost them by 23 points, four years after Hillary Clinton lost them by 31 points. Trump made gains among every other gender/ethnicity group.

Demographic	Hillary Clinton	Joe Biden	Shift
White Men	-31	-23	8
White Women	-9	-11	-2
Black Women	90	69	-21
Black Men	69	60	-9
Latina Women	44	39	-5
Latino Men	31	23	-8

Trump's gains among minority voters probably reflect the normal boost that an incumbent gets when running for a second term. Among Latino votes, the gains can be attributed to his track record. In 2016 Trump ran as the guy who was going to build a wall on the Mexican border and end NAFTA. Four years later he was the guy who did not build that wall and who merely renamed NAFTA. (His gains in southern Texas are largely explained by this.)

Trump also benefitted electorally by at least making a play for black votes.  Most recent Republican nominees have assumed they were going to get very few black votes but Trump made a genuine effort to get some black votes. He bragged about his modest attempts at prison reform and he used the pardon power to show that he was willing to take some baby steps towards ending mass incarceration. He also chose not to follow the anti-drug zeal of his first Attorney General.  I hope that Republicans see these numbers and continue to pursue at least some time of criminal justice reform.

Trump also did better among Asian voters. They are a smaller demographic, so exit poll date is less reliable but the few places where he made relative gains from 2016 tended to be states with large Asian populations. His best performance relative to 2016 was Hawaii, where narrowed the gap by almost three points. His anti-Chinese rhetoric seems to have helped, especially among Japanese-Americans. 

3. Trump Did Worse Almost Everywhere. 

Incumbents usually win, and by a wider margin than their first election. Barack Obama was a recent exception because his win in 2008 happened at the exact nadir of the Republican brand. By 2012, the party had regrouped rallied enough to staunch the bleeding.

Incumbents who lose, usually, to borrow a phrase, get schlonged. Jimmy Carter was trounced. George H..W. Bush managed just 38 percent of the vote.  Trump made it competitive, at least in terms of the Electoral College. If you slide the result one percent to the right, Trump probably wins after a 269-269 tie. Go another quarter point, and Trump wins clean by taking Pennsylvania. 

But he did not repeat the miracle of 2016. He lost every really close state except North Carolina. Nationally the vote margin moved to the left by two and a half points. Trump only improved his performance in a handful of states-the aforementioned Hawaii (2.7%) and Florida (2.2%) are the only places where he improved by more than one percent. California (0.9%) and Arkansas (0.7%) are the only other states where he improved by even half a point.  (Nice to know the Clinton name still means something in Arkansas.)

4. Americans Still Think Republicans Are Better for the Economy, Despite All Contrary Evidence.

Polling on issues showed that voters favored Democrats on almost every issue except for the Economy. These voters simply gave Trump a pass on the recession and job losses of 2020. They blamed COVID and ignored the fact that Trump's response to COVID made those economic losses so much worse.

The American economy has consistently done better during Democratic presidencies than Republican presidencies. This has been true for decades. There is nary a stitch of data on the other side. It's comical.

I'll just put up one data point to support this absurdly solid argument-job creation by every presidential term that started while I was alive:

Presidential Term	Jobs Created (in Millions)
Clinton	12.3
Clinton 2	11.3
Regan 2	10.8
Obama 2	10.4
Carter	10.3
Reagan	5.3
Bush 41	1.9
Obama	1.2
Bush 43 2	1.2
Bush 43 2	0.089
Trump	-3

Notice anything about the color distribution there? The only blue block in the lower half was Obama's first term, and that was because America was still losing massive amounts of jobs his first year in office because of the Great Bush Recession of 2007-8.

But the American faith in "business" and particularly of the acumen of "business men" is unshakable. Even putting one in charge and that leading to an economic disaster has not changed it. Hopefully Biden will put up good numbers and win re-election. But in 2028, the GOP will still run on the bullshit lie that their dumb, failed policies are just what the economy needs.

II. What Does This Tell Us About 2024.

1, Not Much.

2020's turnout is unlikely to be repeated in 2024. If COVID-19 is still raging, then Joe Biden will lose. If (as is more likely),  COVID-19 is gone or largely under control, the election will be fought on different terms.  A lot of states will rescind or limit access to early and absentee voting. (States will Republican legislatures are salivating to do this  already.)  

COVID's biggest impact on the 2020 election might be that one party unilaterally decided not to knock on doors. The Democrats completely skipped the most elemental part of voter turnout-going to talk to voters in person. Republicans did not. That monopoly of in-face interaction probably explains why Trump's turnout game exceeded expectations. That will not be repeated next time.

And the Democratic base may not be as united in 2024 as they were this time by animus toward Donald Trump. Biden may face a primary challenge from a leftist, which will distract and depress him in the same way that Jimmy Carter (Ted Kennedy) and George H. W. Bush (Pat Buchanan) were by challenges from candidates with committed followers further away from the political center.

2.  The Scoreboard is probably 302-236.

We don't know exactly what the Electoral Vote distribution will be for 2024, but the Republicans are likely to net a few votes. The best projection has the 2020 map shifting from 306-232 to 302-236.

Texas and Florida will probably gain 5 votes. California, New York and Illinois will each lose one. Most of the other changes cancel each other out- Colorado gains, but West Virginia loses. Oregon gains, but Alabama loses. Ohio and Iowa lose but Rhode Island and New Jersey do too.

Several traditional battlegrounds will lose a vote- Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Two others will gain-North Carolina and Arizona. The country is slowly moving south. If you look at the states that were very close in 2020, it's pretty much a wash. Biden gains a vote in AZ but loses one each in MI and PA. Trump gains one in NC.

Keep an eye also on Nebraska. The Republican legislature might try to make NE-2 a little more red, although their state law limits their options, because they have to used county boundaries when drawing the lines.

3. We're Going to Do This Again, People.

A lot of voters seem to assume that Joe Biden will not run for a second term. These voters must have not met many politicians. Politicians at this level are not normal people. They have tremendous ambition and a healthy ego, even relatively nice guys like Joe Biden.  Joe Biden is old. He's also fit and trim and healthy. His father lived to be 86 and his mother 92. Joe is not going anywhere. If he is alive in 2024, he will be the Democratic nominee. 

Donald Trump also ain't going anywhere. Tomorrow Donald Trump will close CPAC with a rousing speech that the crowd will lap up. He will tell them they were robbed in 2020. He will tell them that Joe Biden is already a disaster. He will tell them, implicitly or explicitly, that he is the only person who can defeat the man who just defeated him. They will roar with approval.

Donald Trump loves running for president more than anything except the adoration that comes with being president. If he is alive, he will run for the 2024 Republican nomination. There is no one in the Republican feed who can compete with him for that prize. Most of them have prostrated themselves before his altar, and they simply can't run against his record after having followed him so doggedly. Some, like Ted Cruz will try. They will be destroyed.  There will also be a Never Trump candidate or two, the too will be destroyed. Someone will emerge as a bridge between Trump world and the Republican establishment.  He or she (Nikki Haley) will also be destroyed.

The 2024 Republican primary will be another go-round of outrageous lies and insane circus-like appearances at minor league hockey arenas by the only man who that base really loves.  After he wins the nomination, he will face Joe Biden again.  And the race will be a referendum on whether Biden's boring, conventional style has done well enough to satisfy the American electorate.

In three years and eight months I will spend part of my 51st birthday telling you who I think will win the Electoral College the next day.  Right now I think it will be Joe Biden. My best guess is Biden 318, Trump 220.  God help us all.