South Carochigan

A Look Back at South Carolina (GOP).

 I did not bother to write a blog post for the GOP South Carolina primary. But I did Tweet out my prediction, which was Trump 64%, Haley 36%. The final result was 60% to 40%. Let's call that a B+ for me.

The tone of the coverage of this result is that Nikki Haley over performed. And she did-slightly. But she still lost her home state by just over 20 points. If hers was a serious campaign, this would have been its death knell.  But hers is not a serious campaign. 

But hers is not a serious campaign, so she is pressing on to Michigan and (I think) to Super Tuesday after that. So we have to humor her for awhile longer. Onward and upward...

A Look Ahead to Michigan

I. GOP.

Let's look at the trendlines.

Iowa: Trump 51, Haley 19 (in 3rd place)

New Hampshire: Trump 54, Haley 43

Nevada: Roughly Trump 72, Haley 28. 

This is based on Trump's 59K votes in the caucus against Haley's 23K votes in the non-binding primary. This is an imperfect comparison but when you remember that 47K votes were cast for "None of the Above" in the caucus, mostly by Trump supporters, I don't think this is unfair to Haley.

South Carolina: Trump 60, Haley 40.

So yes, Haley did better in the state where she was recently governor than in the other states. But I don't see that continuing elsewhere:

So let's go with Trump 72%, Haley 27%, Others 1.

II. Democratic.

Biden is going to win, but the margin here will matter because there has been an organized campaign by many progressives and Arab leaders to vote for "Uncommitted" instead of Biden. This is intended as a protest of Israel's war in Gaza.

I of course do not agree with this protest. But I'm glad it's happening. It's a relatively harmless way for people to express their extremely understandable feelings about a subject of great importance to them. They deserve to have this chance to express those feelings.

And it's a chance for the rest of-election nerds, the institutional Democratic party and the administration to measure  just how serious this movement is for November. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 150K votes. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 11K votes.  So let's see what kind of numbers this protest can turn out.

I do hasten to add that "Uncommitted" got 21K votes and nearly 11% of the vote in 2012 when Barack Obama was running without an opponent. And not every single vote cast for Uncommitted tomorrow will be a vote of sympathy for the Palestinian people. But most will. 

If Uncommitted gets under 15% of the vote, then this campaign will be a disappointment. Anything between 15% and 20% will be worth noting. But Biden only really needs to worry if they clear 20%.

So let's go with:

Biden 76%

Uncommitted 15%

Phillips 7%

Williamson 2%.

 

First Republican Debate Reaction

 This debate was silly from the start because the nominee did not participate. That said, in true Republican fashion, let's hand out some participation trophies.

1. Ron DeSantis. Grade: C+

Boring and uninspired. Everytime he mentions that he "deployed with the Navy Seals", I cringe. He was a JAG officer, not a platoon leader. 

2. Vivek Ramaswamy. Grade: F (on substance) B+ (for his audience)

Earlier today Vladimir Putin murdered ten people by shooting down a plane over his own territory. Tonight Vivek Ramaswamy doubled down on the idea of letting him keep part of Ukraine so that we can then convince him to become an American ally. He was rightly ganged up on by the other candidates for this moral cowardice. But he has a huge political advantage in this primary.   

He also picks up on a piece of the Fox News message that most politicians are afraid to acknowledge-the idea that America itself is in decline. That was part of what won Trump the 2016 nomination. It will also be what wins him the nomination in 2024. All that B roll of riots and trans people have instilled a fear that only Vivek seems to understand. He is a gross human being but in the cynical politics of the present Republican party, he connects with the rest of the gross human beings who comprise that base.

I was hoping tonight would be a disaster for him. But he played his part pretty well. I expect he will go up in the polls over the next few weeks. Of course, he will not be the nominee. But one thing to look for as we get closer to Iowa- we'll know we have a real primary when Trump starts to casually mention that Vivek is a Hindu. 

Most of the candidates on that stage did their best to talk like a Fox News host but Vivek effortlessly thought like a member of the Fox News audience. He really is as dumb as the people he panders too.

3. Mike Pence.  Grade: D

He was annoying and overly aggressive without saying anything of substance.

4. Nikki Haley. Grade: B.

She had some good moments and didn't embarrass herself.  She landed some punches on DeSantis and Vivek. 

5. Chris Christie. Grade: C

He felt pretty canned and, as always, obnoxious. He was the only person on the stage with a reputation for being a good debater and he under performed. 

6. Tim Scott. Grade: C+

He likes mentioning that he was raised by a single parent. But good lord is he forgetable.

7. Asa Hutchinson: Grade B-

He had a couple flashes of principle, which were admirable. But he's another boring off-the-rack Republican who will never gain traction in this field.

8. Doug Burgum: Grade C+

Probably the best potential president on the stage tonight, which does not say much. He was pretty mild and that's not going to move the needle. But good on him for playing hurt, Doug. 

Bottom Line: Once more, with feeling: Vivek Ramaswamy is a horrible human being.