First Republican Debate Reaction

 This debate was silly from the start because the nominee did not participate. That said, in true Republican fashion, let's hand out some participation trophies.

1. Ron DeSantis. Grade: C+

Boring and uninspired. Everytime he mentions that he "deployed with the Navy Seals", I cringe. He was a JAG officer, not a platoon leader. 

2. Vivek Ramaswamy. Grade: F (on substance) B+ (for his audience)

Earlier today Vladimir Putin murdered ten people by shooting down a plane over his own territory. Tonight Vivek Ramaswamy doubled down on the idea of letting him keep part of Ukraine so that we can then convince him to become an American ally. He was rightly ganged up on by the other candidates for this moral cowardice. But he has a huge political advantage in this primary.   

He also picks up on a piece of the Fox News message that most politicians are afraid to acknowledge-the idea that America itself is in decline. That was part of what won Trump the 2016 nomination. It will also be what wins him the nomination in 2024. All that B roll of riots and trans people have instilled a fear that only Vivek seems to understand. He is a gross human being but in the cynical politics of the present Republican party, he connects with the rest of the gross human beings who comprise that base.

I was hoping tonight would be a disaster for him. But he played his part pretty well. I expect he will go up in the polls over the next few weeks. Of course, he will not be the nominee. But one thing to look for as we get closer to Iowa- we'll know we have a real primary when Trump starts to casually mention that Vivek is a Hindu. 

Most of the candidates on that stage did their best to talk like a Fox News host but Vivek effortlessly thought like a member of the Fox News audience. He really is as dumb as the people he panders too.

3. Mike Pence.  Grade: D

He was annoying and overly aggressive without saying anything of substance.

4. Nikki Haley. Grade: B.

She had some good moments and didn't embarrass herself.  She landed some punches on DeSantis and Vivek. 

5. Chris Christie. Grade: C

He felt pretty canned and, as always, obnoxious. He was the only person on the stage with a reputation for being a good debater and he under performed. 

6. Tim Scott. Grade: C+

He likes mentioning that he was raised by a single parent. But good lord is he forgetable.

7. Asa Hutchinson: Grade B-

He had a couple flashes of principle, which were admirable. But he's another boring off-the-rack Republican who will never gain traction in this field.

8. Doug Burgum: Grade C+

Probably the best potential president on the stage tonight, which does not say much. He was pretty mild and that's not going to move the needle. But good on him for playing hurt, Doug. 

Bottom Line: Once more, with feeling: Vivek Ramaswamy is a horrible human being. 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

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Today We Synthesize (The Road to 270, Take 13)

 Joe Biden is winning by ten points. Some polls say nine, some say 12. It averages out to right about ten. There are three weeks and one day to go until the election. In the history of modern polling, the biggest swing  during the last three weeks was seven points, which happened in 1980 and again in 1992. Both of those large swings related to the polling of a major third party candidate.

At this point in 1980 Ronald Reagan led incumbent Jimmy Carter by just three points. Then he performed well in his only debate with President Carter. Support for John Anderson, a moderate Republican member of  congress collapsed after the debate and Reagan won by ten. 

At this point in 1992, Bill Clinton led incumbent president George H.W. Bush by about 12 points. On election night, he won handily. But Ross Perot far exceeded expectations, taking 19 percent of the vote. Clinton won the popular vote by just five points, but cruised in the Electoral College, 370 to 168.

No such cavalry is coming for Donald Trump.  Joe Biden is now getting over 50 percent in most national polls. He has polled as high as 55 percent in an ABC/Washington Post poll a few days ago. Third party candidates are lucky to break one percent each or three percent in the aggregate. They will probably get some of the undecided voters, but not enough to dramatically move the popular vote.

Donald Trump is unpopular, incompetent and corrupt. He continues to mismanage a raging pandemic and refuses to make it better by unambiguously encouraging people to wear a mask. Even three nights in a hospital could not convince him to take this seriously.

Polls, forecasts and the betting markets moved toward Biden after the first debate and after the Vice-presidential debate. The second debate has been cancelled and the third debate is in doubt. Ten million people have already voted and there are lots of indications that while the Biden campaign is flush with cash, the Trump team is taking down ads in what should have been swing states. A week from now we might know that Trump's . The election is not over but we are in the eight inning, he is down by several runs and the lengthening shadows will only make it harder for him to hit.

Still, ten or 12 percent is not zero. Let's look at where things stand and where they might move in the coming weeks. We do things in tiers on this web site, so I have created a handy color-coded guide to understand how the race might move.  We'll start with the worst scenarios and move on to happier times.

Note: All prices/margins are for Biden/Democrat.

State	Elect Votes	2016 Margin	Predictit Price	538 Margin	538 %
New Hampshire	4	0.37%	80	9.3	84
Nevada	6	2.42%	80	7.1	87
Minnesota	6	1.51%	80	8.4	91
Michigan	16	-0.22	76	11.9	91
Pennsylvania	20	-0.72%	70	6.5	87
Wisconsin	10	-0.76%	73	6.5	85
Nebraska-2	1	-2.00%	N/a	4.8	76
Florida	29	-1.19%	58	3.8	72
Arizona	11	-3.50%	54	2.9	67
North Carolina	15	-3.66%	56	2.1	63
Georgia	16	-5.10%	43	-0.6	46
Ohio	18	-8.07%	42	0.5	53
Iowa	6	-9.41%	41	-0.9	45
Maine-2	1	-10.29%	N/a	-0.7	47
Texas	38	-8.98%	30	-3.2	31
Alaska	3	-14.73%	20	-6.8	23
South Carolina	3	-14.27%	16	-6.7	16
Montana	3	-20.23%	13	-10.3	11

I.  The Taxonomy Down the Stretch.

A. The Nightmare scenario: Biden Plays Defense.

It used to be an axiom of presidential politics that the incumbent could lose close or lose big, but they only won big. In the 20th century only Woodrow Wilson was re-elected in a closer election than his first. George Bush won two very narrow victories and Barack Obama won fewer electoral votes (332) in 2012 than he did in 2008 (365). And it is safe to rule out a Trump landslide. Nate Silver still gives him a 13 percent chance of winning but only about a five percent chance of winning all of his 2016 states and adding more.

The polls and the markets agree that Biden doesn't have much to worry about in the states that Hillary Clinton won last time. But if things shift toward Trump for some godforsaken reason, he could try to win New Hampshire, Minnesota or Nevada. 

B. The Tight Scenario: The Rust Belt Is Close.

We all remember how angry we were at Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016. If the election was going to be close this time, this is where the most intense campaigning was going to happen. And no one will relax until these states are called for Biden on November 3rd but right now it looks like he will win all of them. And that would be enough for Biden to win the election with 279 electoral votes or 280 if he also adds Nebraska's second congressional district.

C. The Good Scenario: Sun Belt States.

The Rust Belt is likely to be the tipping point for the election outcome but the sun belt might decide whether it was a close election or a comfortable one. I am personally most confident in flipping Arizona, but the data suggests that Florida will be a better state for Biden. And if he's cruising there, he probably adds North Carolina too. 

This gets Biden up to 335. If I had to place a bet today, this is where I think the election ends up.

D. The Great Scenario: The Map Expands.

Ohio and Iowa were the Obama states that swung towards Trump by such a large margin that they were not competitive by the end. I still favor Trump in both of them, but the polls do suggest they will be close. At the moment, Nate thinks Biden will win Ohio by a  half point and lose Iowa by less than a point.

Biden's best chance of carrying a state that Obama never won is Georgia. Nate Silver rates it a toss-up with Trump winning 54% of the time in his simulations.  

These three states will determine if the election is perceived as close or not. If Biden sweeps them, some will call it a landslide. If Iowa and Ohio return to the fold, Biden will have recreated the Obama coalition, save Mike Pence's Indiana. Replacing it with Indiana would be quite the feat.

E. The Dream Scenario: A Blue Texas

I still have a hard time believing it, but Texas is in play. Nate favors Trump by about three points. He gives Biden a 31% chance of winning-a higher number than he gave Trump winning the White House last time. There is also a semi-competitive senate race and Biden is spending money there. 

F. The Blow Out Scenario.

There is a huge gap between Texas and the next most competitive state. The next state up for Biden in 538's forecast is South Carolina. But Biden only has a 16% chance of winning there. Betting markets and the JHK forecast give it very similar numbers. I doubt this will happen, but we'll keep an eye on it for now.

Alaska has comparable numbers, but it is historically much tougher to poll than the lower 48. 

My choice for a dark horse continues to be Montana. Nate only gives Biden an 11% chance there but I have this hunch. (Full disclosure-the hunch is that MT will be close, not that Biden will win.)

II. The Forecasts.

1. FiveThirtyEight. Biden is at 87 percent, up from 81 percent a week ago. Moreover, Nate is on Twitter explaining that his forecast assumes the race will tighten but the day to day events on the trail are undermining that assumption. Put differently, Trump is blowing his escape routes, one after another. This week he pissed off Dr. Fauci and tonight he went back on the campaign trail to host a crowded rally despite still being positive for COVID-19.

2. The Economist. The most aggressive forecast in the field inches up again-moving Biden up to 91% from 90% a week ago. No states moved this week, so he is still with me in forecasting a 334-204 result. 

3. Sabato Crystal Ball. Biden 290, Trump 248. This week he moved Arizona from toss-up to lean Biden. His forecast is always cautious and he still has five states as toss-ups. 

4. 270toWin. Biden 290, Trump 248.  Moves Arizona and NE-2 from toss-up to lean Biden.

5. JHK Forecasts. Biden 87.7%, up from 83.9%  They also have Biden slightly favored in Iowa, Georgia and Ohio. If he were to sweep those states, the final tally would be Biden 375, Trump 164. But Biden is not more than a 55% chance to win in any of the those three states, so it might be closer than that. 

6. Plural Vote. Biden 74% of winning, Biden 323, Trump 135.  They have Trump slightly favored in Arizona.)  I'm starting to think he gives too much weight to internet search data, but maybe he is on to something.

7. Betting Markets. Predictit.com gives Biden 61.1%, up slightly from last week's 61.5%. The other markets, which do not cap the amount you can bet on a race favor Biden by roughly two to one.  I expect that number to stay stable for the next week or so, but to shift in the last two weeks as Trump runs out of time to close the gap.

8. SpiderStumbled.

I leave Biden where I had him last week-91%. The only change I made in specific contests is to move Maine-2nd from Trump to Biden. That puts my best guess at 335 to 203.

For these last few weeks, I will also put in a guess at where the popular vote lands, so here we go, my best guess:

Biden 52.55%

Trump 44.85%

Jorgenson (Libertarian) 1.75%

Hawkins (Green Party) 0.65%

Others: 0.1%

Looking at all of the date-polls, forecasts, betting markets, there is simply no reason to doubt that Joe Biden is on a path to 270 and beyond.  Just try to keep calm for the 22 short days between now and then.

 

President Trump (Volume 3-of 3)

Donald Trump has been president for 18 days shy of one year. He has not changed a single smidgeon in that time. He is the same ill-tempered ignorant jackass that 46 percent of our electorate pushed into the White House after our last election.  He is human garbage.

I.  New Buisness: The first 348 days of President Trump.

Just a few weeks ago it seemed very possible that Donald Trump would get through his first year without a single legislative accomplishment.  But the Republican partby rallied to cram a large tax cut through during the last legislative day of 2017.  Somehow, the biggest win of Donald Trump's insurgent presidency was to codify another decade of Paul Ryanomics.  It is a dreadful bill and the consequences of it will be severe.  But like any good confidence game, it will take a while for the marks to realize how bad the deal was. In a week or two people will start seeing more in their paychecks, and that will fortify Trump's political position. 

The Republican party is the party of Donald Trump. Everyone of them has humiliated themselves to get in line behind this towering buffoon in order to appease the donor class with tax cuts and some deregulation. The political consequences of this will be tremendous, but they too will take time to be felt.  For the moment, I have to focus on what the President is doing to the United States.

Earlier this evening he sent a Tweet bragging that his nuclear arsenal is greater than North Korea's. Fifteen minutes later he announced his plans to offer awards for "Fake News" to the media outlets that have covered him critically. Earlier today he Tweeted that the "deep state Department of Justice" was unwilling to prosecute one of his political enemies.  And he tried to take credit for the fact that there were no fatal commercial plane crashes during 2017.  Yes, really.

The time for analysis and hand-wringing is over.  The President is a nutter and all citizens of good conscience will say so, publicly.  I do not know how the Mueller investigation will turn out, but I think the world at large has to hope that it ends with Donald Trump leaving the White House. But the more probably outcome is that we are stuck with him for another 3 years and 18 days. If during that time, you have the opportunity to resist this regime, do so.  You will never regret it.

II. Old Business: The State of My Predictions About Trump.

This is the last time I'm rehashing these predictions.  I'll let my record speak for itself.

1. "The Iran Deal will be torn up."

He deserves SOME credit for not rushing to do this. But he badmouths the deal at every turn and will probably blow it up when things get bad enough for him. For now, I'm happy to be wrong about this.

2.  "Antonin Scalia will be replaced by a conservative rather than Merrick Garland." I'm one for two.

3. "ISIS has a new propaganda talking point."  Yes, that's literally true but we have to give credit where credit is due: the Islamic State has lost a lot of territory in the past year. They don't have a functioning capital anymore and it's not clear how viable they are going forward.  I hope this progress continues but it's premature to say that ISIS won't be soon replaced by something even worse.

4.  "It is now the official policy of the United States government that Climate Change is a hoax perpetrated by China to disrupt American manufacturing. "

Two for four. The nice thing about this one is that the rest of the world is not putting up with our shit.  I hope the rest of the world picks up that slack, but we have to recognize that we won't be able to just saunter back on the world stage and expect to be the world's leading voice on this subject in 2021. 

5. "At some point next year the Congress will repeal Obamacare."  Six up and half a dozen down here.  Full repeal did not happen but the repeal of the individual mandate got slipped into the tax bill.  This will have two terrible consequences- a lot of people will lose coverage and Donald Trump will spin it all as a win.

6. "At some point next year the Congress will pass massive tax cuts and the overwhelming majority of these cuts will benefit very wealthy people."   I'm not really digging the ones I was right on.

7. "Immigration policy is about to become a lot less thoughtful."  This is incredibly true. Of course the Wall remains to be built, but Trump is chipping away at almost every type of immigration and publicly saying he intends to change even popular, formerly non controversial policies like allowing immigrants to sponsor relatives to come here later.  

8. "There will be a bunch of dumb protectionist policies put in place. "

He still doesn't know what a fucking trade deficit is.

9. "The implements of the federal government will be used to settle the president's political scores. " Of course.

10.   "The new school of political science thought will be personality based."  It seems likely that Trump ism will discredit such campaigns for awhile but we're a long way from the end of Trump style politics. If nothing else, it's a way to get ratings. 

III. New Business: What's Next for this Blog.

I only wrote three blog posts during all of 2017.  Two were about Donald Trump and one was about Better Call Saul. The first year of Trump was just too exhausting and hectic to find the time for pieces longer than a Tweet.  

But it's a new year and it's not too soon to start thinking about the end of this foul presidency. The midterm elections will be the big story but as soon as those are over, the 2020 election cycle will begin in earnest.   That election will be the focus of my writing in 2018. In my next post, I will lay out the unscientific probabilities of various outcomes in some detail.  For now, I will just say that I think Trump will run and will be the GOP nominee.  He could win another general election, but for the moment, I think he is more likely to lose. 

So I'll close with an endorsement. What I want in the next president is someone mature, intelligent and serious.  In fact, a boring president sounds awfully good now.  And yes, I want the next president to be a woman.  It is well past time and the best way to get over the fact that we decided to elect an admitted serial sexual offender.  So here is my thinly researched, semi-sentimental endorsement of my preferred 2020 candidate:  I want to vote for Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) because I think she is the person least likely to make we worry about a nuclear war starting from a Twitter beef.  On this night, that sound plenty good.