The second debate of the 2024 general election will be begin in under four hours. It is the first debate to include Kamala Harris. As I usually do, I will post some questions that I would like to hear the candidates be asked tonight. But first, a quick word about the state of the race.
I believe that Harris will win the popular vote by something between three and six points. I believe she will sweep the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I also think she will win Nevada. I think Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona are true tossups that either candidate could win if the election were today. So my hunch is that she will win one or two of those, but not all three.
This is slightly more bullish than the average forecast, as you can see below.
I. The State of the Race.
The race is very close. Most recent national polls have been within two points. Harris has led in the majority of them, but that doesn't tell us much since she probably needs to win by a point and a half or two points to become president. The professionals and hobbyists who look at this stuff in some detail tend to put the likelihood of either candidate winning somewhere between 40 and 60 percent.
Which of course is making everyone on Politics Twitter mental. The uncertainty is grating and not everyone is taking it in stride. But I don't think there's much difference between 60/40 and 40/60 when there are eight weeks to go. Here I have round up the predictions from various models and prognosticators. And I'll include myself because well, why not?
II. Questions That Should Be Asked.
1. To Donald Trump, "Who won the 2020 election for president?"
I'd like to get even more specific and ask Trump which states he is willing to admit that he lost last time. But last week Trump seemed to make some news in admitting on a podcast that he lost "by a whisker." He probably said that to avoid the podcast host from beating him up on election denialism. I think the moderators need to push further on this today because well, shit, democracy matters.
2. To Kamala Harris, "How would you have handed the withdrawal from Afghanistan differently than Joe Biden and Donald Trump did?"
I continue to believe that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the most successful large-scale operation carried out by the American military this century. Many disagree with me on that, although, none of them can name one more successful. But this is an issue and I want to hear both her talk about it and Trump respond to it.
3. To Donald Trump. "You are awfully fond of Vladimir Putin, the House of Saud, Xi Jinping and Kim Jung Un. Do you believe it is important for America to promote democracy abroad?"
I am recycling this from my post about the June debate, because I think it's a great question.
4. For Kamala Harris: "Why specifically did you change your views on fracking since 2019?"
5. For Donald Trump: "The first time you ran for president you promised to balance the budge and pay off the debt in four years. Your current campaign is predicated on a lot of tax cuts and a lot of new spending. The only new revenue source you have endorsed are tariffs on all imported goods. Have you crunched the numbers on all of these plans and how much do you think the national debt will be four years form now if you are elected."
6. For Kamala Harris " Do you think that any tariffs currently in place contributed to the inflation of the past few years and will you repeal or reduce any of them?
7. For Both Candidates: Three out of four of your parents were immigrants. Mr. Trump's father was born about 2 year after his parents arrived in this country from Germany. Why do you think so many voters s have hostile feelings about recently arrived Americans and what will you do to change that?
As always, I would also like to have them answer the questions on the test to become a naturalized citizen but I don't think we will get anything like that tonight.
III. If This Were a Baseball Game.
As the election proceeds, I will play around with probabilities from a different passion, baseball.
To think of think of the election as a baseball game. We'll treat the remaining weeks as innings. And we'll make Harris the home team, since we are root, root, rooting for her and if she doesn't win it will be a shame.
So with eight weeks to go, the game goes to the second inning today.
A. 538 Baseball Forecast: The game is tied in the top of the 2nd. There is one out and no runners on base.
B. Nate Silver Baseball Forecast. The visitors have a 2-0 lead in the top of the second. There are two outs and no runners on base.
Bottom Line: A lot of baseball left to be played.
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