Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. Final 2024 General Election Forecast.

I. Four Scenarios.

The race remains extremely close. The betting odds are close to even money. The forecasts are nearly tied. But in less than 48 hours, we will probably know the winner and almost certainly the narrative will be one of these four things:

1. For a third consecutive election, the polls underestimated Trump. In this scenario the popular vote is close and Trump wins enough of the battle ground states to become president again.

2. The pollsters underestimated Harris organization and ability to turn out voters. In this scenario, the Harris campaign turns out low propensity voters and people who are simply sick of Donald Trump and all of his baggage.

3. Chaos. There has been a lot of discussion about whether 2024 will be a repeat of 2016 (Trump surges to victory) or 2020 (America turns out Trump.)  But we have to consider a repeat of 2000. the polling in swing states have been so close that it's very possible we will not know who is going to be president until the courts weigh in. 

4. Harris Wins Big. The Des Moines Register poll of Iowa (conducted by Ann Selzer) has been the golden child of polling the last two cycles. They found Trump up big there in 2016. Not only were they right about that, but the shift was replicated in other midwestern states and Trump took down the "blue wall" that was supposed to save Hillary Clinton. In 2020 they had Trump up in Iowa again and Trump won Iowa easily for a second time. The result was echoed in other states,  and the election wound up being closer than expected.

Trump won Iowa by nine points in 2016 and by eight in 2020. Selzer had Trump winning Iowa by seven in both of those cycles. Two days ago the final Des Moines Register poll had Harris up by three. If this poll is once again extremely accurate, than Harris would flip a bunch of states that Biden lost last time. 

I do not expect this poll to be that accurate for a third time in a row. But I also don't expect the wider pool of pollsters to under estimate Trump for a third straight time. In short, I think Harris is going to win. But I think it will be close.

II. Seven Swing States and Two Stretches.

The election has been narrowed to seven states for some time now.  To win the election Harris needs 44 Electoral votes from these states. Trump needs 49. From most to least important, this is what I expect.

1. Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes). This is the dog fight. The candidate who wins this state is the heavy favorite to be the 47th president. Almost every recent poll has it within a point or two. But a lot of that polling has been from partisan Republican pollsters. And they only find Trump up by a point. That should be encouraging to Harris. I think she will win the state by a point or two. If we know that result by Wednesday morning, then we are probably avoiding the chaos scenario.

2. Georgia (16 EV) Harris won this state by 11,779 votes in 2020. The state also has elected two Democratic senators. It was also the place where Trump's attempts to steal the 2020 election were most blatantly corrupt. The states demographics are trending left and Harris has made a full court press to win this state. Recent polling here has been extremely close but I think Georgia is more likely than Pennsylvania to go Republican this time. I favor Trump slightly.

3. North Carolina (16 EV) Georgia and North Carolina are interchangeable for the electoral map. They each have sixteen electoral votes and they are both southern. It is the only closely contested state that Trump held on to last time. (He won by about 94K votes.) Most of the polls here have shown Trump with a slight lead but the final New York Times poll had Harris up by three.

NC was hit very hard by Hurricane Milton. The response by the federal government was extremely competent.  North Carolina also have a very popular Democratic governor and the Republican candidate to replace him is a full blown loon. I think that helps on the margins. 

One other piece of data worth mentioning is that inflation was relatively mild in North Carolina. Nate Silver has been talking about this a lot. It seems that the states that avoided really high inflation are going to swing more to the left than other states. (This could be significant for the House-New York and California were hit hard by inflation. That would change the presidential result but it could hurt Democrats in the House.)

So my pick in North Carolina is Kamala Harris. By about a point or two.

4. Michigan (15 EV) Michigan will be one of the most closely scrutinized states regardless of the results. Michigan is home to large Arab and Muslim populations and they are concentrated in specific cities. There are a lot of Muslim and Arab voters who feel they cannot vote for Harris because of Joe Biden's decision to support Israel's response to the attacks of October 7th. I am sympathetic to this argument but also very aware that Trump will be much worse for the people of Gaza than Kamala Harris.

I think the protest vote will be measurable and I think it will cut into Harris lead. But it won't be enough for Trump to win the state. Trump won Michigan by less than a quarter of a point in 2016 and Biden won it by three points last time. Harris will win Michigan again.

5. Arizona (11 EV)  This is a weird one for me. I think AZ is a tough state to poll. Several really smart people that I follow on Twitter think this state will stay in the Dem column. It's possible but I cant' ignore that it's been awhile since Harris lead in a poll there. I think Arizona flips back to red.

6. Wisconsin (10 EV) This is where I will be on election day. I have also done a good deal of phone banking for this state. The polls are close but the Wisconsin Democrats have a great organization. I think Harris will win Wisconsin.

7. Nevada (6 EV) Nevada is the state that Dems always worry about and then they win. Polling has been a bit scattered and the Republican party has done a pretty decent job of running up a lead in early voting. But if history holds, the Reid Machine will carry Kamala over the line. Harris will win a close one, but the state will probably not be called for several days. Hopefully this time it won't hold up the call of the national race because Harris will be declared winner in Pennsylvania by Wednesday or Thursday.

The Two Stretches:

1. Kind of small beer here, but I think Harris might win Maine's 2nd congressional district. The Selzer poll of Iowa suggests that Harris is doing better with white voters than some expected. This could be a nice bonus but it won't affect the outcome anywhere.

2. The Selzer poll means we have to consider Iowa competitive. She has been accurate within a point or two the last two times and she has a reputation for letting the data speak for her. I admire that. Iowa passed an abortion ban that only took effect recently. It seems to have shifted the state left. One fun wrinkle of the Selzer poll is that it had RFK junior getting three percent of the vote. I don't think he will be much of a factor anywhere, but weird old Iowa might be the one place it matter.  

I'm keeping Iowa red on my map, but I think it will be close. Let's say Trump by two.

The only changes from my last forecast are moving NC and ME-2 blue. Here is what my map looks like now:

III. A Quick Word About Why You Should Vote For Harris.

I did my last round of phone banking today. A point of emphasis was to encourage people to tell their friends and loved ones to vote for Harris. It's unlikely that you are undecided voter if you're reading this but maybe you know an undecided voter or two. Feel free to share with them my top seven reasons to vote for Kamala Harris.

1. Trump threw a riot to steal the last election. He really did. And he has said openly that he will pardon the people who were convicted of crimes committed on his behalf that day. It will be the first order of business if he wins tomorrow. As an undecided voter, you're probably sick of being told that this election is especially important but this is the kind of stuff that ends democracies.

2. Harris will work to keep abortion legal.  Women have died because of the state bans that Trump made possible by appointing three justice who overturned Roe vs. Wade. If he regains the presidency, our government will do more and more to treat abortion as a crime. Harris probably can't fix this problem over night if the Democrats don't control the senate. But she'll work in the right direction. And rejecting Trumpism will send the message that we do not want women to die or doctors to be prosecuted for performing abortions.

3. Trump will align the United States of America with dictatorships and authoritarians. Trump does not care about democracy. He admires dictators and has PROMISED to be one, at least on his first day in office. We Americans might treat that statement like a joke, but it's not. In his heart he is an authoritarian. He will use the next four years to settle scores and to do favors to the people that he thinks helped him. This has some very real effects.

Ukraine will have to surrender a lot of territory to Russia. Trump won't give them any additional aide and he will want to take credit for brokering "peace." But this kind of appeasement will not be peace. It will give Russia permission to try to grow its boundaries. He will not stop with taking 20 percent of Ukraine. His goal and the goal of his successors is quite simply to restore the Russian and Soviet Empires. Trump will green light that.

NATO will be compromised. Trump doesn't think it is in the interests of the United States for NATO to survive because he thinks America is a fortress and we can get along with Putin and the Chinese Communist Party because we should not care about human rights or treaty obligations.

4. Trumps tariffs will wreak havoc on our economy. Donald Trump's single major economic idea is to impose large tariffs on all imported goods. He think the United States can survive as an insular economy. It can't. And the price of your smart phone and your clothes and your cars will go up immediately.

5. If Donald Trump wins, he will run rampant. He will likely have both chambers of congress. He will have an extremely sympathetic six to three majority on the Supreme Court. His first act will be stop the Department of Justice from prosecuting the crimes he committed during his first term. He will not be restrained by the cabinet members and generals who were there to put some roadblocks in his way. Moreover, he will have just been told by the American people that we don't care about the excesses of his first term. He will take a victory as a mandate for revenge. He will govern like a king who is immune from prosecution for anything that he can call an "official act."  He will have the Supreme Court he appointed and the voters he conned to thank for that. But he won't bother to be grateful.  He will be too busy, building his wall, deporting hard working people regardless of whether they are married to or the parents of American citizens. He will, as he promised, act like a dictator on day one. And who exactly is going to make him stop on on day two?

If Harris wins she will probably have control of the House but not the Senate. The Supreme Court will be hostile if she tries to do anything ambitious without congressional assent. In short, voting for Harris is to vote for moderate, restrained policy within the checks and balance of our system. Voting for Trump is voting to empower a lunatic as he passes into his eighties. Oh. and his running mate is a goober that's been in the senate for 20 months. 

IV. Just One More Thing.

 It's time to elect a woman president. Harris has avoided making this plea, and that's probably a smart decision. Hillary Clinton's campaign suffered from leaning into this bit of history a little too much. It rubbed some people the wrong way. But I'm not Kamala Harris or a woman. So I can tell you-I want a woman president. This is the ninth presidential election that I have voted in. At 51 years old, I might not vote in nine more. 

When Barack Obama was elected my friend showed his then three year old daughter one of those place mats with all the presidents. He was curious whether she would notice something different about the last face on the paper.  He went through all 44 pictures and told her just a little about each one. When he was done, she had two questions. "Why are they all boys? "And "Why were so many of then named James?"  She is in college now. I assume she has learned why all the presidents have been boys so far. I doubt she likes the answer. 

Donald Trump is in obvious mental and physical decline. He is a convicted felon and serial sexual pest. He recently told a crowd at a rally that Arnold Palmer had a large penis. He laughs when he talks about Nancy Pelosi's octogenarian husband being hit in the head with a hammer. If you want four more years of that, well you've got the company of about 45 percent of your countrymen.  

The American economy is in exceptionally strong health. We are no longer at war.  Crime is falling and we've even reduced our dependence on fossil fuels. The current administration has been a success. 

Kamala Harris is a good and bright person. She has run an excellent, moderate campaign. She is someone that will make the country proud.  If she wins, she will be proof that the American Experiment is alive and well.  You should vote for her. 

V. Putting My Predictions Out There.

Presidency:

Electoral College Harris 293, Trump 245

Popular Vote: Harris 51.03%, Trump 47.16%

Swing States:

Pennsylvania: Harris by 1

Georgia:  Trump by 0.3

North Carolina: Harris by 1.1

Michigan: Harris by 2.4

Arizona: Trump by 1.6

Wisconsin: Harris by 2.1

Nevada: Harris by 0.8

Stretch States:

Iowa: Trump by 2.4

Maine 2nd: Harris by 0.02

Florida: Trump by 2.9

Texas: Trump by 3.3

New Hampshire: Harris by 5

Virginia: Harris by 4.8

Other Big States:

New York: Harris by 20.4

California: Harris by 27.9

Illinois:  Harris by 17.4

Ohio: Trump by 6.7

The House: 
Democrats 223, Republican 212

I have paid very little attention to the house this cycle. The seats to watch are in Iowa. If people are really motivated by the abortion ban, the Dems will win one or two seats there. But control of the House will be determined by New York and California. 

The Senate:

Republicans 51, Democrats 49

Key Senate Races:

Ohio  Brown (D) by 1.8

Montana Sheehy (R) by 3.9  (Republican pick up)

Wisconsin Baldwin (D) by 3.2

Nebraska Fischer (R) by 5.7

Texas Cruz (R) by 2.3

Florida Scott (R) by 3

Arizona Gallego (D) by 5

Michigan Slotkin (D) by 4.1

Pennsylvania McCormick (D) by 3.5

West Virginia Justice (R) by 34 (Republican pick up)

Nevada Rosen (D) by 4.1

This would mean the incumbent party retaining 32 out of 34 races. But more importantly, the senate would flip to Republican control. 

     

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Five)

 In 2020 I updated my forecast sixteen times. This is just my fifth in 2024 and I don't expect to do another one. 

1. The State of the Race.

The race is too close to call. Extremely so.

There are only seven states that are being contested. The polls in all seven states are well within the margin of error. The most likely outcome is that one of the two candidates will sweep all seven. There are 128 permutations of the seven swing states. According to Nate silver, there is a 25% chance that Trump will win all seven and a 15% chance that Harris will win all seven.

In this situation, complicated electoral college map is pretty useless. Flip a coin seven times and you'll be in as full command of the facts as any pollster or pundit. So I'm not going to do that today. I'm going to talk about why this race could go either way.

2. Reasons for Trump to be Optimistic.

a. The American people have not disqualified him. By now I expected enough people to have ruled out voting for for more years of that amoral aspiring tyrant. I thought he would be stuck around 45 or 46 in the polls. He isn't. He's mostly between 47 and 49.  He probably wins at 49. He probably loses at 48 and will lose at 47.  It's that close.

b. The forecasts and betting markets have shifted towards him in the past few weeks. The FiveThirtyEight.com model gives Trump a 53.9% chance of winning. Nate Silver gives him a 54.4% chance of winning. 

The betting markets now lean in Trump's direction slightly more. Predictit has him as a four to three favorite. Polymarket is about 2 to 1 in his favor, although some of that is due to some distortion by Crypto Bros who want to shape the narrative that Trump is inevitible.

c. He is eager to cheat and a lot of his party is willing to go along with that. Whatever dirty trick they can pull, it shall be pulled. Trump has long assumed that this race will be won or lost in the courts because he has convinced himself that the courts cheated him out of victory in 2020. (They didn't. He's an idiot.)

3. Reasons for Harris to be Optimistic.

a. Women hate Donald Trump. The world has been unkind to incumbent parties since COVID-19. But the United States has one issue that makes our election different. Donald Trump appointed three justices to the Supreme Court and they all voted to give states the authority to criminalize abortion. Red states have not been shy about exercising that authority. Women have noticed.

b. Kamala Harris is more popular than Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Hillary was less hated than Trump in 2016 but they were both unpopular. Harris's personal approval ratings are roughly neutral. Trump is still unpopular generally.

c. The Democrats have raised more money and have a much better ground operation than Team Trump. 

d. Trump's age is really showing. He is tired and he rambles even more than he did in his previous runs. He is old and the people have noticed. I think in the end, this will make the difference.

4. Things to Ignore.

People are naturally trying to divine the meaning of early voting patterns. There are some theories that bolster Trump (especially in Nevada) and others that bolster Harris (especially with gender differences and the numbers in Pennsylvania).  But I am going to hold off on putting too much stock in any of that because 2020 was such an outlier for early and mail voting. Four years ago we were in a pandemic. One campaign acknowledged that and the other actively discouraged people from voting before election day.  The situation is different now. The overall numbers will be lower but I don't think they will be as lopsided in favor Democrats either.

5. My Updated Forecast.

This race is going to be very close. For the past few weeks Trump seemed to have a slight bit of momentum behind him. I think that has petered out. In the home stretch he looks tired and frail.

Harris has run a good campaign. I don't think she's a great retail politician but she has run well. She's done the appropriate mix of interviews, rallies and advertising. She's focused on the right issues and I think she is more likely to close this deal than not.

With one week to go, I think this is where the probabilities of each swing state stand:

1. Michigan (Harris 67%)

2. Wisconsin (Harris 60%)

3. Nevada (Harris 55%)

4. Pennsylvania (Harris 53%)

5. North Carolina (Trump 51%)

6. Georgia (Trump 55%)

7. Arizona (Trump 60%)

But there are 128 permutations for how 7 coin flips can go. Next week all 128 are possible. This is the one I find most likely:

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Four)

Folks, the tide has turned. Kamala Harris has had an amazing month of good fortune and better politics. For the first few months of this year I assumed that voters would eventually reconcile themselves to the fact that they had to choose between two old declining men and enough of them would choose the one who wasn't evil. 

But Father Time came for Joe Biden a little faster than I expected. Remarkably, he recognized that this was true, or at least the fact that the public believed it was true, so he stepped aside in favor of his vice-president. Then the institutional party rallied behind this decision. Since becoming the presumptive nominee, she has made a very popular choice for running mate, posted incredible fundraising numbers and staged a string of flawless campaign rallies. 

Now America has a choice between an old man, malevolent in being, choleric in temperament and declining in his faculties or a woman in the prime of life, upbeat in bearing and riding a wave of good sentiment that should carry through her convention. When the dust settles around Labor Day, this could be looking like the best presidential election cycle for Democrats since 2008.

But let's not get over our skis just yet. Harris hasn't done an interview, press conference or debate yet. A lot can go wrong and it's inevitable that a she will have a bad press cycle or two between now and November 5th. But for now, she is the favorite. And her opponent seems incapable of adjusting to this reality. 

The electoral college favors the Republican party. A few bad bounces could lead to another 2016 where Trump rides a lucky streak to the White House. He can win Pennsylvania and I'm not lighting any cigars until  that state is called on Election Night (Or the day after. Maybe Thursday. Seriously, folks, margins matter in PA. Let's get this done in a timely manner.)

I. The Roads to 270.

The colored chart at the top of this post is a list of every electoral contest from deepest blue DC to brightest red Wyoming. I don't do toss-ups, because that's boring. But any state or district in a pale color could reasonably won by either party. The darker shades are "safe." But I use that term a little more loosely than more serious outlets. They are safe for now. They are safe in a close election. I'll move the bricks around as polling and prediction markets shift. 

A. The Safe Blue 226.

Just a month ago, team Trump was eyeing Minnesota and Virginia. Trump himself was making noise about New Jersey. (That last one was never going to happen.) But for now, I thin those states are off the board. Unless something horrible happens in the next 87 days, Harris-Walz will win at least 20 contests worth 226 electoral votes.

B. The Swinging 93.

i. Michigan. This state is trending blue and I'd be shocked if Harris doesn't win it. Polymarket gives Harris as 62% chance of winning it. Until that gets over 70%, I'll leave it where it is. (Five Thirty Eight has not yet turned their forecast back on which is embarrassing).

ii. Wisconsin. Also trending blue, but not quite as fast as MI. Polymaket has it 56/44.

iii. Pennsylvania: WI and MI get Harris to 251. From there the clearest path is Pennsylvania, which gets her to exactly 270. The most recent polls have looked good there and I think Harris will probably win it. But let's face it 270 to 268 is a terrifying proposition. Especially for the 270 members of the electoral college in the states that vote for Biden. (And their alternates-thank God the electors have alternates.)

iv. Nevada.  If there is one state to flip because of the switch from Biden to Harris, it is this one. Biden was polling terribly there and Trump was polling weirdly well there all year long. I guess they like casino owners, even lousy ones. But Harris stepping in has led to a swift endorsement by the big culinary union there and it looks like the Reid machine will carry this one over the line for now. If I owned a polling company, I would spend a lot of money on this state the next two months. If Harris doesn't win PA, she probably has to win Nevada.

v. Georgia. After Pennsylvania, this state is most likely to put Harris over the top. If she wins the 251 states, plus NV and GA, she'll be at 273. A slightly less terrifying scenario than 270 to 268.

vi. North Carolina.  If I had to predict the closest margin in this election, I would pick NC. The Dems have only carried it once in the last 11 cycles but the state is nudging its way leftward and the Republicans, God love them, have nominated an absolute nutter to be their candidate for governor. It was the only state that Trump won by a narrow margin in 2020 and I hope this year it will fall the other way.

vii. Arizona.  This is another state that was very close last time and in which the Party of Lincoln has chosen a full-blown lunatic for the senate race. She will lose. But for some reason, this state feels like a reach for Harris. Polymarket still favors Trump there and I'm not ready to bet against that. Picking Kelly for Veep would have helped, of course. But I don't think AZ will be the tipping point state, so it's probably not worth worrying about. And Harris certainly has a chance to win, especially if Trump keeps making his cognitive decline so obvious.

C. The Safe Red 219.

I have written somewhat cautiously so far. I am very encouraged by the current state of the race. But I know there are limits to the popularity of the Democratic party and I'm not about to discount the possibility of attacks on Kamala Harris sticking with a certain kind of "independent voter" who think the President of the United States should be man, just the way more sensible folks believe that James Bond should always be a man. (Or God, if that's your thing.)

Part of my caution stems from the fact that I don't see Harris flipping any big states that Trump won in 2020. Florida could wind up being close. But it makes little senses for Harris to commit the kind of resources it would probably take for her to win there. Texas was fairly close last time, but I don't seeing it moving nearly five points to the left in a second consecutive cycle.  Ohio might be closer than last time and that's good news for Sherrod Brown's senate campaign. But it's not flipping Blue

One persistent prediction I have made is that Florida will again vote to the left of Texas this time. And I think they will both be Red in the end, whether by one point or five.  (The last time TX voted to the left of FL was 1988-when Dukakis-Bentsen lost FL by 22 points but Texas by 12 and 1/2 points. Good job, Lloyd!)

Other than NC, it's hard to see where Harris picks off a state that voted for Trump twice. She might win both of Maine's congressional districts, but that's hardly a trivial effect on the election. If we're talking about a blow out, then Iowa and Alaska could become kind of, sort of close. But if we're worried about that in November, then this will be a good cycle indeed.

II. The Bottom Line.

This election will be decided in seven states worth a total of 93 electoral votes. Kamala Harris needs to win 44 of those 91 votes. Trump needs to win 51 to win outright or 50 to get a 269-269 tie and force it to the House of Representatives*. 

The contours of this are shaped by how the three Blue Wall states vote. 

A. Harris has 3 Paths to winning at least 44 of these votes:

a. The Blue Wall: WI+MI+PA (exactly 44)

b. The Hybrid: Any two Blue Wall States plus NV+ GA or NC (47)

c. The Southern Belles:  NV+AZ+ GA + NC (49)

I do not see the Southern Strategy working. If Harris gets swept in the Rust Belt states, she probably does not win all four southern states. But stranger things have happened.

B. Trump's Needs A Rust Belt Swing State to get to 270:

The good news is that Trump has to win at least one of the Blue Wall states. The bad news is that winning one or more of them gives him several paths to 270.

If Trump wins one of the three Blue swing states, he has the following paths:

If Pennsylvania,  he is up to 238 and he needs either: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia 

b. North Carolina or Georgia plus NV and Arizona.

If Michigan, he is up to 235 and he needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and NV or Arizona.

If Wisconsin, he's up to 229 and needs: 

a. North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states, he's up to at least 244 and needs to get 26 more. 

a. Georgia plus North Carolina  

b. Georgia OR North Carolina plus Nevada AND Arizona.

If Trump wins any two of the Blue Wall states and one of them is Pennsylvania then he's up to at least 248 and needs to get 22 more. 

a. Georgia and North Carolina

b. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan but not Wisconsin, then he's up to at least 253 and needs to get 17 more. 

a. Georgia or North Carolina plus Arizona or Nevada.

b. Arizona and Nevada.

If Trump wins All  Three of the Rust Belt states, he's up to at least 263 and needs to get 7 more. 

a. Any of the four southern swing states would probably work. House of Representatives. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona would give him a clean win. Nevada would make it a 269 to 269 tie, which means that Trump probably gets elected president by the House of Representatives*. 

Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Two)

This is the fourth presidential election cycle that I have forecast on this humble blog. For the first time ever, I am predicting that the Republican candidate is more likely to win than the Democratic candidate. But as of today, we at least know who the Democratic candidate will be and her name is Vice-President Kamala Harris.

My Thanks to All of You.

Joe Biden did something really great and patriotic today. I am a huge admirer of him and I think he's been the best president of my lifetime. I have also vocally supported him as the candidate this time around.  But Father Time is undefeated. After a dreadful debate performance, Biden gave three lengthy interviews and a long press conference. His performance at each was underwhelming. 

It had to be frustrating for him to realize that he's still doing a great job but can no longer project the strength and vigor that voters want from the president. I give him a lot of credit for making this difficult decision. But he's much more a patriot than egotist, so I'm not surprised he got there.

Now It's On To Chicago.

Kamala Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee. No one important will challenge her. The other day I tweeted that the roll call vote will be something like this:  Harris 3,974 Newsom 15, Bernie Sanders 7, Gretchen Whitmer 4, Michelle Obama 3, Dean Phillips 1, Seth Moulton 0.

That's right about where I am still, with one exception. I forgot that some guy named Jason Palmer got on the ballot in American Samoa and beat Joe Biden in that caucus. He earned three delegates and deserves to keep them. Mr. Palmer-you rock.

But sometime between now and the Democratic convention in Chicago, Kamala Harris will have to pick a running mate. She has a handful of attractive options.

When picking a Vice-President, one should consider the following criteria, in order:

1. Are they plausibly qualified to be President of the United States?

2. Will they hurt me by pissing off a specific voting block or bringing scandal to my ticket?

3. Can they help me in a specific swing state?

4. Do we make a good team? Put differently, can they be part of sending a specific and cohesive message to voters?

In the hours since Biden dropped out, most of the running mate talk has focused on four governors. I think there is also one senator worthy of being vetted and considered by VP Harris.  Here are the five most likely running mates, listed in order of my preference.

1. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan. I'll be direct. I think she's the best choice. She probably takes Michigan off of the map. She is wildly popular in her home state and is good on television. I also think that picking a woman would be bold choice for Harris. It would reflect confidence and really underline that this election is about transitioning to the next generation

2. Senator Mark Kelly, Arizona.  He's an astronaut, which is about the coolest thing a person can be. He doesn't alienate any particular block of voters and he could help in Arizona, a state that Biden won by just 10K votes last time. The only downside here is that it would put his senate seat up for a special election in a midterm. But he has to be considered seriously. He's also a good man with a very sympathetic personal history that ties into the issue of gun violence. 

I don't know if I see a "brand" angle but I think a Harris-Kelly ticket can make this vote about abortion access and gun violence. Those issues are winners for Democrats.

3. Governor Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania. He's going to be a popular source of speculation because Harris probably needs to win Pennsylvania and she doesn't have the connections there that Joe Biden did. But he's in his first term, which means he's green. Like Harris he is a former attorney-general of a large state. The creates an interesting brand idea but this one might not catch on with some younger voters.  He's also Jewish and the first black woman to run for president might be tempted to stick with a white Christian man. 

4. Governor Roy Cooper, North Carolina.  I don't know a lot about him. But he's a popular governor of  light red state.  But NC is a slight reach for the Democrats this year and his lieutenant governor is a full-blown nut bag and when Cooper is out of the state, the Lieutenant Governor gets to be the "acting governor."  (This particular lunatic is also the Republican nominee for governor this year.) I don't like this pick but Harris is said to be fond of him, so he could end up getting the job.

5.Governor Any Beshear, Kentucky. He is a really good politician and his electoral success in a red state shouldn't be ignored. But he doesn't shore up any particular swing state and I'm not aware of any personal connection between he and Vice-President Harris.  He's worth a look, but well, he's not as strong of an option to my mind.

Other names will be floated but I really think she's going to pick one of these five. Time is short so she can't get too creative. Better to stick with prospects who have been closely examined by voters, at least in their home state.

And Let's Win There.

Okay, so now for the hard part. Winning the general election.  

I expect that Kamala Harris will get a good round of press and that will probably translate into modestly better poll numbers than we have seen over recent weeks. There are a whole lot of people who don't link Trump but claimed they were more worried about Biden because of his age. The fight for those votes in November will probably determine the winner.

But I still think she's the under dog. The map I post below is exactly what I would have posted if Biden were still the expected nominee. 

The Roads to 270.

I'm reasonably confident that Kamala Harris will win at least 226 Electoral College Votes. That leaves her 44 votes shy of 270. The states at play can be put in two broad categories:

The Blue Wall: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10)

The Sun Belt: North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).

1. Sweep the Blue Wall.  

226 + Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) get her to exactly 270.

2.  Win Two Blue Wall and Two Sun Belt.

226 + WI + MI =251  

NC (16) or GA (16) gets Harris to 267. She would then need to win more state to get to 270.

3. Michigan and 29 Sun Belt Votes

4. Wisconsin and 34 Electoral Votes. (This seems very unlikely. If Harris loses MI and PA, she is probably not winning Three of the four Sun Belt states.)

It's not easy to write that I think Donald Trump is more likely than not to win this next presidential election, but right now I think Kamala Harris is on a path to winning 241 Electoral Votes .She has 106 days to get that up to 270. If you live in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, I hope you like political ads on during TV commercial breaks.

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Four More Years But For Whom? (2024 General Election Forecast, Take One)

Both candidates are old and familiar. They both skated to their respective nominations with ease. Both are unpopular with the median voter. And a significant segment of the general public still seem to think that some other candidate is going to walk through a spring-loaded door on a white horse and promise the world exactly whatever the hell that particular voter wants to hear and nothing else.

But that's not going to happen. There are two choices for president in 2024. And while they share all of the above-stated qualities, only one is a corrupt convicted criminal. Only one is an insufferable narcissist who intends to use the next four years to settle scores with his enemies, perceived and real.

The other candidate happens to be an extremely competent and accomplished president. The other candidate has overseen an incredible economic performance, drastic reduction in crime all while ending our longest, dumbest war and leading a coalition of democracies to defend Europe from the vile imperial ambitions of Putin's Russia.

I. WHERE THE RACE STANDS.

In the 538.com model, the race is a dead heat. As of this writing, the last 1,000 simulations had Biden winning 501 times and Trump winning 499 times. (If you assume the House of Representatives would vote for the Republican, as seems likely.)

The Economist model favors Trump. In their simulations, Trump wins 68 percent of the time and Biden wins 32 percent of the time. The betting markets also favor Trump, by a narrow margin on Predictit, more widely in some others.

I think the disparity between the models comes down to the weight given to Biden's approval numbers, which are bad. The polls do seem to give Trump a slight edge but I am reluctant to put too much weight on those just yet for the following reasons:

1. It's June. Polls are not predictions. They are snap shots in time. 

2. A lot of people, bless their hearts, do not believe that Trump and Biden will be the nominees. I knew this was crazy a year ago but to believe it at this point is lunacy. Unless either one of them dies in the next four months, we are getting a rematch. But as recently as three days ago, you could spend 79 cents to get a $1 stake in Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee for President. Right now that number is up to 85. It should be in the mid-90s.  No one is walking through that door to replace Joe Biden. If he does die, the nominee will be Kamala Harris. If you don't understand this, I can't take you seriously.

3. The polls are drastically overstating the appeal of third party candidates. The 538 model currently has Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting almost 8 percent of the vote. I doubt he will get half of that. But polls are not capturing the fact that he has been struggling to raise money and only has confirmed ballot access in six states. 

For practical purposes, the election is currently tied. And I believe it will remain so well into October. I hate the phrase "if the election were held today" because, well, the election is not held in the middle of June. But if the election were held today, Donald Trump would probably win. The good news of course, is that today is June 22nd. A lot will happen in the next 19+ weeks and I remain confident that Joe Biden will win when it counts.  But let's talk about how we get there.

A. WHY BIDEN SHOULD WIN.

1. He is a very good president. His legislative accomplishments speak for themselves. He took over during a terrible pandemic and the United States has lapped the world in recovery from it by every metric you can think of. Job 

2. He is the incumbent and the economy is doing well. This should be the ball game but a lot of people tell pollsters that the economy is bad, which seems related only to the effects of inflation. For the record, inflation is lower here than in the rest of the wealthy world, and has been dropping like a rock. But you probably know that because you are smart enough to read this blog.

3. Abortion.  Most Americans believe that abortion should not be criminalized. But the Trump appointees to the Supreme Court has give that option to states and nearly half of the states have chosen to make abortion illegal under all or most circumstances. 

4. The defense of democracy and freedom.  Joe Biden has accomplished some great things in foreign policy and he gets almost no credit for them with the average voter. He ended our longest, dumbest war. He stood with Ukraine when Putin invaded and he called out the savagery of Hamas for its attack on Israel. None of these choices have been easy and all have had some political downside. But it's 2024. Ukraine stands. NATO is stronger and when was the last time you heard someone say, "Boy, I wish we were still occupying Kabul."  

4. His administration has been scandal-free. There have been no high-level resignations. No indictments. No real scandals other than garden variety Fox News fodder about really small ball stuff.  (And the unfortunate crimes of Hunter Biden, the president's son. I happen to think that Hunter's travails make his father more sympathetic, but yeah it's a talking point that Trumpers will not tire of using.)

5. His opponent wants to end social security as we know it. Trump is smarter than the average Republican so he plays a little coy with, but I sure hope the Democrats put this issue to their advantage this year. 

6. His opponent is a raving lunatic and a convicted criminal. 

B. WHY TRUMP COULD WIN.

1. Biden is unpopular. His approval rating is right about 40%. That is low. I think a lot of this is attributable to his age, but a lot of it has to do with inflation and the fact that a good chunk of people have simply forgotten that he inherited a mess from Trump and had to devote a lot of energy to fixing that. 

2. Immigration.  I hate to say it, but Trump's enduring popularity has a lot to do with his insane opposition to immigrants other than beautiful women from Eastern Europe. The border situation has improved, but Americans really do not like what they see on the news about it. And they don't like seeing migrants panhandling on streets.  The American people are afraid of immigrants and that fact is staggeringly sad. But for now, this is a political reality.

3. Americans love rich people. I am 50 years old. The economic history of this country for the past 50 years is a cycle of a Republican president getting elected, cutting taxes, running up enormous debt and leading us into recession. Then a Democrat gets elected, cuts the deficit spending, creates a lot of jobs and tries to restore some level of sane financial regulations. Then the voters decide they want a Republican to cut taxes, so we run back for the ditch.

But voters will still tell you that the Republican party is the party of fiscal responsibility. And the party that they trust to handle the economy. And they still believe that the government should be run like a business. It's a fundamental flaw of our civic literacy. And like the aversion to immigration, it's a political fact.

4. The Right Wing is more united than it was four years ago.  In 2020 at least some hardcore right-wing thinkers were aware of Trump's awfulness enough to publicly support Joe Biden. But four years of modest regulatory enhancements and (even more modest) changes to the tax code are enough to put many of them back in the Trump column. Some of them now figure Conservatism can survive Trump and a second Trump term is their last shot at enacting some wild-ass reforms to our federal government. 

There will always be some Never Trump Republicans. But even sane Republicans are refusing to endorse Joe Biden. They don't see an upside in it.  

5. Cultural Nonsense. 

I am putting this last because it's incredibly unimportant substantively but Trump and the Republicans do seem to have a slight advantage from energizing their voters about such weight issues as a trans woman playing softball in some Junior College or any crime committed by an undocumented immigrant. This stuff ranges from petty to tawdry but it certainly consumes the thoughts of a certain segment of bored old people. 

II. The Forecast.

Joe Biden won the last election with 306 electoral votes. Because of reapportionment with the last census, the Biden states are now worth 304 votes. The Trump states are worth 234.

 1. The Road to 270.

I am very confident that Biden will win 225 electoral votes.

To get to 270, his best path is to add:  Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1) Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).

That's a too close for comfort 270 to 268 win. That would leave the nation's collective rectum tight enough to sharpen a pencil for two months.

So Biden wants to win somewhere else. The good news is he has several options. The bad news is he's not a clear favorite to win any of them.

2. The Cushion Opportunities

a. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes).  This state has gone blue in four consecutive election cycles but the margin has dropped from 13 percent in 2008 to seven percent in 2012, to 2.4 percent in both 2016 and 2020. The Nevada Dems have pulled some close elections out in recent cycles but this year it's a true toss-up.

b. Georgia  (16 votes). Trending blue for several cycles but still red in its DNA. This state can be won if black turnout is high. 

c. Arizona (11 votes) A true purple state. Basically a coin toss. Biden is helped by abortion and by Kari Lake being on the ballot for the Republican senate race. But Trump is helped by the border situation and the higher than usual percentage of crazy retirees. 

3. The One Pickup Opportunity.

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) is the only state that Biden lost by less than 3 points in 2020. If we have a genuine rightward shift in this election, than Trump will hold it. But NC is getting more diverse and the GOP nominated an absolute whack job for governor, so I think Biden has a shot here.

4. The Trump States.

I just don't see another pickup opportunity.  I think Trump has 219 electoral votes pretty well sewn up, and they probably think Arizona and Georgia will come home. 

If I had to pick the next closest Red state, I would say Florida. Biden lost Florida by 3.3 points and the state Democratic party got trounced in the mid terms. But they have shown signs of life since then and DeSantis is less popular than he was 2 years ago.  I still think Trump will win it but I think the margin will be two to four points. 

It's trendy to say that 2024 is the year that Texas will vote to the left of Florida. I don't buy it. I think Texas goes for Trump by five to seven points. Everything to the right of that is a solid red wall. The best we can hope for is a closer than usual margin in Alaska.

So here is My Honest but Slightly Optimistic Prediction of the 2024 Presidential Election. All of the red is solid and a lot of the blue is pale. That's the state of the race.  I don't think I will updating it again for a while. But we have a debate, a candidate sentencing and two conventions that will be here before you know it. So maybe things will change. (By the way, I think Trump will pick Douglas Burgum as his running mate. Or maybe he will go off the board and choose some retired general or state legislator from a swing state. But my money is on Burgum.)

One last word on the popular vote. I think it will be closer this time than last. I think Trump will do better in both New York and California than he did last time. That won't affect him but it could mean an extra seat or two in the House Republican caucus. I also think some young people will stay home this time, which is a real shame. If Trump wins,  we will be living with Trumpism for a good long while.

The 538 model predicts the popular vote will be Biden 47.2, Trump 45.2, Kennedy 7.5.

I will go with Biden 49.8, Trump 46.1, Kennedy 3.5. Others 2.0%

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Final 2022 Midterm Predictions of Extremely Low Confidence

If you play this game, you have to go on the record. I do so in the Year of Our Lord 2022 with very little confidence. But making your best guess is important, especially if you remember to remain humble when that guess turns out correct.  (More or less.)

 1. The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.

Current House: 221D, 214R.

Prediction:  228R, 207D.  (Republicans gain 14 seats.)

It will be hard for the incumbent party to hold on to a razor-thin majority.  A lot has to go right for the Democrats.  But I also do not see them getting blown out.  The Republican won almost every close race last time and while they probably benefitted modestly from reapportionment, I do not think they were able to add many seats from redistricting.

There also has been a modest uptick for the Democrats in tracking polls over the last few days. I think that momentum will keep a few close seats blue.

There are not very many compelling individual races in the House this year. Some of the worst Republicans are leaving this year because of retirement (Goehmert) or primary loss (Cawthorn).  Most of the other really bad ones (Greene, Gaetz) are in very safe seats. Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite.

1. If you want a sign of how things might go for the rest of the country, Florida (13th) and Virginia (2nd) are two races to watch.  Both are currently held by Democrats but both have shifted right after redistricting. If the Dems win both of these races, it's a good sign for them. 

 2. Alaska at-large will be talked about a lot, especially if the Democratic incumbent clears 50% on the first round. (I think she will-just barely.) 

3. Every vote matters. The GOP caucus contains no shortage of people more interested in their brand then in governance. Kevin McCarthy won't be able to get much done if he's trying to ride herd over a 221 seat house. But as his caucus grows, then he can get away with letting them do more stupid things like impeaching Joe Biden to keep Donald Trump happy.  If he has 230 seats, they can probably scratch together 218 who are dumb enough to play that game. If he only has 221 or 222, then he probably can't do that or force a government shutdown that would tank America's credit rating. 

2. Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.

Current Senate: 50 (+1 VP) D, 50 R.

Prediction: 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.

A. This Probably Comes Down to 4 Races. 

I don't think any of these races have a clear favorite but I'll list them in order of confidence.

1.Arizona: Dems win. Their incumbent is popular and normal and those people usually win. Let's call it Kelly 51, Masters47.

2. Georgia goes to a runoff.  Their incumbent is normal and relatively popular but it's a tough environment for Democrats in a state that is still 50-50.  The Republicans nominated a moron but that is not deterring the base at all.  On election night, Walker will have a small lead but come up short of 50.  Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48. 

Pennsylvania & Nevada are truly too close to call. I can see any combination happening here-2R, 2D, 1 of each with either party winning either race. But if I scrutinize the numbers, the polling history, the momentum and the candidate quality, this is where I land. (I think.)

3. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49

4. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1.

B. The Second Tier Races. 

There is a second tier of races here where one party is clearly favored but the other candidate has a reasonable chance of winning. (Reasonable chance defined as the odds of a #9 batter in an average baseball lineup getting a hit in any given at bat against an average pitcher.  (Something close to 20%.)

5. Wisconsin   Ron Johnson is odious. He is dishonest and shitty in several ways. But this state is evenly divided and the environment tilts to the right slightly. So I think that will be enough for Johnson to hold on. 

Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. Chance of an upset: 25%.

6.  Ohio.  J.D. Vance is a weak candidate. Tim Ryan is a pretty strong one but this is a red state and I think Vance will make it through.

Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6.  Chance of an upset: 23%.

7.  North Carolina.  This race has barely been on my radar. Both candidates seem inoffensive, which I think favors the Republican in this environment.

Budd 51, Beasley 47. Chance of an upset: 21%.

8. New Hampshire.  Okay, this is the one to watch if you are a Republican.  I think their candidate should lose but if he wins or keeps it very close, that is a sign that the GOP is headed for a good night.

Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 Chance of an upset: 18%. 

C. Squint and You Can See an Upset.

Polls are sometimes wrong. In another universe, the Dems might be competing in Florida or Iowa. In the world of Trafalgar polling, the Republicans are competing in Washington and Colorado.  But I really don't think any of these races will shock anyone. 

What to Watch: 

1. Democrats probably need to win three of the Big Four Races. 

2. If the Dems  pull an upset in Ohio, Wisconsin or North Carolina, then they can survive with a split of the Big Four.  

3. If the Republicans win New Hampshire, they are probably on the way to a big night in both houses.

3. Governor Races: Treading Water, But Lookin at the Margin.

1. The Big States will stay in their lane.  The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes.

2.  Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly.

3. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.

I am most interested in seeing how some of these races go in comparison to the same state's senate races. I think a lot of voters might want to send the message that candidates matter.  The best way to do that is to vote for a competent normie but against flashy celebrity candidates or full-on crazies. 

IV. Summary.

A lot of these races are going to be very close and turn on silly things like weather or minor nuances in voting procedures. The results of these elections will affect the nation. Worst of all, the parties will extrapolate lessons from tiny wins and losses. Push the ball in the direction your prefer for this country. You have nothing better to do tomorrow.

Race	Result	Details/Margin
House of Rep.	GOP Wins.	A net of 14 seats. GOP 228, DEM 207
Senate	Dems Hold.	A net gain of 1 on Election Night. GA in a Run Off.
AZ Senate	Dem Hold	Kelly by 4
GA-Senate	Runoff	Walker by 1 but under 50%
NV Senate	Dem Hold	Cortez Masto by 1.
PA Senate	Dem Pickup	Fetterman by 0.4 points
WI Senate	GOP Hold	Johnson by 2
Ohio Senate	GOP Hold	Vance by 3
NC Senate	GOP Hold	Budd by 4
NH Senate	Dem Hold	Hassan by 3 and a half points
Governors	Dems Gain	Democrats Gain MD, MA, & OK, lose NV & KS.
KS-Gov	GOP Pickup
NV-Gov	GOP Pickup
OK-Gov	Dem Pickup
OR-Gov	Dem Hold
WI-Gov	Dem Hold	This will be very close.

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El Camino (The Road to 306, Take One)

Writing about the 2020 presidential election feels as timely as writing about the Treaty of Ghent. So much has happened since then-a 5 day delay to find out the official winner, a two month long period of denial and attempted theft by the loser, a literal riot that almost derailed the certification process and did cause an impeachment trial. But accountability is a part what we do here, so let's take one final look back at my predictions.

I. I Was (Mostly) Right.

"Well, I was wrong and I was wrong loud. I'm the Dick Morris of 2016."

Your correspondent, the day after the 2016 election.

I did better this time. I got 48 states right, all but Florida and North Carolina.   I predicted the popular vote to be 52.6% to 45.2%.  It wound up being 51.3% to 46.9%. 

The night I posted my final prediction, a Twitter follower who really knows the numbers said that if I was right, Biden might get 80 million votes. Well, he got over 81 million, despite underperforming my estimated percentage by about a point and a half.  So the real surprise of the 2020 election was not the winner or the margin but the turn out. A LOT of people voted this time around. 

November 3rd and 4th, 2020 may be the first time that being an uber-election nerd actually improved my life. Yes, I was concerned when I saw the terrible numbers in Florida. But I didn't panic. And I have the screen shots to prove it:

That was in response to my text chain freaking out about the early returns. By the next morning, (coincidentally my birthday), most of them had  moved on to lamenting the size of Biden's win.

It wound up being 306. And it wound up being seven million. Ten million would have been nice. But seven million votes is a pretty clear message to the loser-we don't like you.

Of course, Trump did turn out his people. That's what kept the race closer than it should have been. There are a few conclusions we can draw from his performance in November.

II. The Biggest Lessons Learned.

1. Jared figured out Florida. 

For the 2nd straight election, Donald Trump performed better than the polls and pundits expected. For all his cartoonish behavior and general incompetence, he twice pulled off campaigns that held together and functioned as well as could be expected. His clown show did not come off the rails enough to earn him the humiliation that he deserved to suffer.

Trump won Florida in 2016 by just over one point with 4.61 million votes. The early voting data seems to suggest a very close race and a lot of prognosticators thought it pointed toward a Democratic victory. Indeed, a lot of Democrats did turn out in 2020. Joe Biden got 5.297 million votes, almost 800K more than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. But Biden lost by almost three points.

Jared Kushner figured out how to keep the Cuban-American voters in the Trump camp. The moment Miami-Dade numbers came in was the only time that I seriously wondered if Trump was going to win again.  But Trump also did well among Venezuelan and Puerto Rican voters in other parts of the state. Their ground game for early voting was excellent. Governor DeSantis probably deserves some of the credit for this, but the simple fact is that Florida moved from a true toss-up state to leans-Republican for the next cycle. 

2. Trump made advances with non-white voters.

Trump won white men by 23 points and with women by 11. Joe Biden won black and latin voters of both genders by tremendous margins. This is not surprising, but the trend between 2016 and 2020 migh surprise you. 

Joe Biden made a significant advance among white men. He lost them by 23 points, four years after Hillary Clinton lost them by 31 points. Trump made gains among every other gender/ethnicity group.

Demographic	Hillary Clinton	Joe Biden	Shift
White Men	-31	-23	8
White Women	-9	-11	-2
Black Women	90	69	-21
Black Men	69	60	-9
Latina Women	44	39	-5
Latino Men	31	23	-8

Trump's gains among minority voters probably reflect the normal boost that an incumbent gets when running for a second term. Among Latino votes, the gains can be attributed to his track record. In 2016 Trump ran as the guy who was going to build a wall on the Mexican border and end NAFTA. Four years later he was the guy who did not build that wall and who merely renamed NAFTA. (His gains in southern Texas are largely explained by this.)

Trump also benefitted electorally by at least making a play for black votes.  Most recent Republican nominees have assumed they were going to get very few black votes but Trump made a genuine effort to get some black votes. He bragged about his modest attempts at prison reform and he used the pardon power to show that he was willing to take some baby steps towards ending mass incarceration. He also chose not to follow the anti-drug zeal of his first Attorney General.  I hope that Republicans see these numbers and continue to pursue at least some time of criminal justice reform.

Trump also did better among Asian voters. They are a smaller demographic, so exit poll date is less reliable but the few places where he made relative gains from 2016 tended to be states with large Asian populations. His best performance relative to 2016 was Hawaii, where narrowed the gap by almost three points. His anti-Chinese rhetoric seems to have helped, especially among Japanese-Americans. 

3. Trump Did Worse Almost Everywhere. 

Incumbents usually win, and by a wider margin than their first election. Barack Obama was a recent exception because his win in 2008 happened at the exact nadir of the Republican brand. By 2012, the party had regrouped rallied enough to staunch the bleeding.

Incumbents who lose, usually, to borrow a phrase, get schlonged. Jimmy Carter was trounced. George H..W. Bush managed just 38 percent of the vote.  Trump made it competitive, at least in terms of the Electoral College. If you slide the result one percent to the right, Trump probably wins after a 269-269 tie. Go another quarter point, and Trump wins clean by taking Pennsylvania. 

But he did not repeat the miracle of 2016. He lost every really close state except North Carolina. Nationally the vote margin moved to the left by two and a half points. Trump only improved his performance in a handful of states-the aforementioned Hawaii (2.7%) and Florida (2.2%) are the only places where he improved by more than one percent. California (0.9%) and Arkansas (0.7%) are the only other states where he improved by even half a point.  (Nice to know the Clinton name still means something in Arkansas.)

4. Americans Still Think Republicans Are Better for the Economy, Despite All Contrary Evidence.

Polling on issues showed that voters favored Democrats on almost every issue except for the Economy. These voters simply gave Trump a pass on the recession and job losses of 2020. They blamed COVID and ignored the fact that Trump's response to COVID made those economic losses so much worse.

The American economy has consistently done better during Democratic presidencies than Republican presidencies. This has been true for decades. There is nary a stitch of data on the other side. It's comical.

I'll just put up one data point to support this absurdly solid argument-job creation by every presidential term that started while I was alive:

Presidential Term	Jobs Created (in Millions)
Clinton	12.3
Clinton 2	11.3
Regan 2	10.8
Obama 2	10.4
Carter	10.3
Reagan	5.3
Bush 41	1.9
Obama	1.2
Bush 43 2	1.2
Bush 43 2	0.089
Trump	-3

Notice anything about the color distribution there? The only blue block in the lower half was Obama's first term, and that was because America was still losing massive amounts of jobs his first year in office because of the Great Bush Recession of 2007-8.

But the American faith in "business" and particularly of the acumen of "business men" is unshakable. Even putting one in charge and that leading to an economic disaster has not changed it. Hopefully Biden will put up good numbers and win re-election. But in 2028, the GOP will still run on the bullshit lie that their dumb, failed policies are just what the economy needs.

II. What Does This Tell Us About 2024.

1, Not Much.

2020's turnout is unlikely to be repeated in 2024. If COVID-19 is still raging, then Joe Biden will lose. If (as is more likely),  COVID-19 is gone or largely under control, the election will be fought on different terms.  A lot of states will rescind or limit access to early and absentee voting. (States will Republican legislatures are salivating to do this  already.)  

COVID's biggest impact on the 2020 election might be that one party unilaterally decided not to knock on doors. The Democrats completely skipped the most elemental part of voter turnout-going to talk to voters in person. Republicans did not. That monopoly of in-face interaction probably explains why Trump's turnout game exceeded expectations. That will not be repeated next time.

And the Democratic base may not be as united in 2024 as they were this time by animus toward Donald Trump. Biden may face a primary challenge from a leftist, which will distract and depress him in the same way that Jimmy Carter (Ted Kennedy) and George H. W. Bush (Pat Buchanan) were by challenges from candidates with committed followers further away from the political center.

2.  The Scoreboard is probably 302-236.

We don't know exactly what the Electoral Vote distribution will be for 2024, but the Republicans are likely to net a few votes. The best projection has the 2020 map shifting from 306-232 to 302-236.

Texas and Florida will probably gain 5 votes. California, New York and Illinois will each lose one. Most of the other changes cancel each other out- Colorado gains, but West Virginia loses. Oregon gains, but Alabama loses. Ohio and Iowa lose but Rhode Island and New Jersey do too.

Several traditional battlegrounds will lose a vote- Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Two others will gain-North Carolina and Arizona. The country is slowly moving south. If you look at the states that were very close in 2020, it's pretty much a wash. Biden gains a vote in AZ but loses one each in MI and PA. Trump gains one in NC.

Keep an eye also on Nebraska. The Republican legislature might try to make NE-2 a little more red, although their state law limits their options, because they have to used county boundaries when drawing the lines.

3. We're Going to Do This Again, People.

A lot of voters seem to assume that Joe Biden will not run for a second term. These voters must have not met many politicians. Politicians at this level are not normal people. They have tremendous ambition and a healthy ego, even relatively nice guys like Joe Biden.  Joe Biden is old. He's also fit and trim and healthy. His father lived to be 86 and his mother 92. Joe is not going anywhere. If he is alive in 2024, he will be the Democratic nominee. 

Donald Trump also ain't going anywhere. Tomorrow Donald Trump will close CPAC with a rousing speech that the crowd will lap up. He will tell them they were robbed in 2020. He will tell them that Joe Biden is already a disaster. He will tell them, implicitly or explicitly, that he is the only person who can defeat the man who just defeated him. They will roar with approval.

Donald Trump loves running for president more than anything except the adoration that comes with being president. If he is alive, he will run for the 2024 Republican nomination. There is no one in the Republican feed who can compete with him for that prize. Most of them have prostrated themselves before his altar, and they simply can't run against his record after having followed him so doggedly. Some, like Ted Cruz will try. They will be destroyed.  There will also be a Never Trump candidate or two, the too will be destroyed. Someone will emerge as a bridge between Trump world and the Republican establishment.  He or she (Nikki Haley) will also be destroyed.

The 2024 Republican primary will be another go-round of outrageous lies and insane circus-like appearances at minor league hockey arenas by the only man who that base really loves.  After he wins the nomination, he will face Joe Biden again.  And the race will be a referendum on whether Biden's boring, conventional style has done well enough to satisfy the American electorate.

In three years and eight months I will spend part of my 51st birthday telling you who I think will win the Electoral College the next day.  Right now I think it will be Joe Biden. My best guess is Biden 318, Trump 220.  God help us all.