Four More Years But For Whoah....Wait a Second. (2024 General Election Forecast, Take Two)

This is the fourth presidential election cycle that I have forecast on this humble blog. For the first time ever, I am predicting that the Republican candidate is more likely to win than the Democratic candidate. But as of today, we at least know who the Democratic candidate will be and her name is Vice-President Kamala Harris.

My Thanks to All of You.

Joe Biden did something really great and patriotic today. I am a huge admirer of him and I think he's been the best president of my lifetime. I have also vocally supported him as the candidate this time around.  But Father Time is undefeated. After a dreadful debate performance, Biden gave three lengthy interviews and a long press conference. His performance at each was underwhelming. 

It had to be frustrating for him to realize that he's still doing a great job but can no longer project the strength and vigor that voters want from the president. I give him a lot of credit for making this difficult decision. But he's much more a patriot than egotist, so I'm not surprised he got there.

Now It's On To Chicago.

Kamala Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee. No one important will challenge her. The other day I tweeted that the roll call vote will be something like this:  Harris 3,974 Newsom 15, Bernie Sanders 7, Gretchen Whitmer 4, Michelle Obama 3, Dean Phillips 1, Seth Moulton 0.

That's right about where I am still, with one exception. I forgot that some guy named Jason Palmer got on the ballot in American Samoa and beat Joe Biden in that caucus. He earned three delegates and deserves to keep them. Mr. Palmer-you rock.

But sometime between now and the Democratic convention in Chicago, Kamala Harris will have to pick a running mate. She has a handful of attractive options.

When picking a Vice-President, one should consider the following criteria, in order:

1. Are they plausibly qualified to be President of the United States?

2. Will they hurt me by pissing off a specific voting block or bringing scandal to my ticket?

3. Can they help me in a specific swing state?

4. Do we make a good team? Put differently, can they be part of sending a specific and cohesive message to voters?

In the hours since Biden dropped out, most of the running mate talk has focused on four governors. I think there is also one senator worthy of being vetted and considered by VP Harris.  Here are the five most likely running mates, listed in order of my preference.

1. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan. I'll be direct. I think she's the best choice. She probably takes Michigan off of the map. She is wildly popular in her home state and is good on television. I also think that picking a woman would be bold choice for Harris. It would reflect confidence and really underline that this election is about transitioning to the next generation

2. Senator Mark Kelly, Arizona.  He's an astronaut, which is about the coolest thing a person can be. He doesn't alienate any particular block of voters and he could help in Arizona, a state that Biden won by just 10K votes last time. The only downside here is that it would put his senate seat up for a special election in a midterm. But he has to be considered seriously. He's also a good man with a very sympathetic personal history that ties into the issue of gun violence. 

I don't know if I see a "brand" angle but I think a Harris-Kelly ticket can make this vote about abortion access and gun violence. Those issues are winners for Democrats.

3. Governor Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania. He's going to be a popular source of speculation because Harris probably needs to win Pennsylvania and she doesn't have the connections there that Joe Biden did. But he's in his first term, which means he's green. Like Harris he is a former attorney-general of a large state. The creates an interesting brand idea but this one might not catch on with some younger voters.  He's also Jewish and the first black woman to run for president might be tempted to stick with a white Christian man. 

4. Governor Roy Cooper, North Carolina.  I don't know a lot about him. But he's a popular governor of  light red state.  But NC is a slight reach for the Democrats this year and his lieutenant governor is a full-blown nut bag and when Cooper is out of the state, the Lieutenant Governor gets to be the "acting governor."  (This particular lunatic is also the Republican nominee for governor this year.) I don't like this pick but Harris is said to be fond of him, so he could end up getting the job.

5.Governor Any Beshear, Kentucky. He is a really good politician and his electoral success in a red state shouldn't be ignored. But he doesn't shore up any particular swing state and I'm not aware of any personal connection between he and Vice-President Harris.  He's worth a look, but well, he's not as strong of an option to my mind.

Other names will be floated but I really think she's going to pick one of these five. Time is short so she can't get too creative. Better to stick with prospects who have been closely examined by voters, at least in their home state.

And Let's Win There.

Okay, so now for the hard part. Winning the general election.  

I expect that Kamala Harris will get a good round of press and that will probably translate into modestly better poll numbers than we have seen over recent weeks. There are a whole lot of people who don't link Trump but claimed they were more worried about Biden because of his age. The fight for those votes in November will probably determine the winner.

But I still think she's the under dog. The map I post below is exactly what I would have posted if Biden were still the expected nominee. 

The Roads to 270.

I'm reasonably confident that Kamala Harris will win at least 226 Electoral College Votes. That leaves her 44 votes shy of 270. The states at play can be put in two broad categories:

The Blue Wall: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10)

The Sun Belt: North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).

1. Sweep the Blue Wall.  

226 + Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) get her to exactly 270.

2.  Win Two Blue Wall and Two Sun Belt.

226 + WI + MI =251  

NC (16) or GA (16) gets Harris to 267. She would then need to win more state to get to 270.

3. Michigan and 29 Sun Belt Votes

4. Wisconsin and 34 Electoral Votes. (This seems very unlikely. If Harris loses MI and PA, she is probably not winning Three of the four Sun Belt states.)

It's not easy to write that I think Donald Trump is more likely than not to win this next presidential election, but right now I think Kamala Harris is on a path to winning 241 Electoral Votes .She has 106 days to get that up to 270. If you live in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, I hope you like political ads on during TV commercial breaks.

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One Week Out Official 2022 Midterm Non-Predictions

I have not written a political post in 15 months. One reason for that is that I have been generally satisfied with the Biden presidency. And my views on 2024 are pretty set-Biden and Trump will both run again. They will probably both be nominated and Biden will be favored to win the rematch.

But the midterms are now upon us and I feel obligated to make at least one post about my expectations. 

Frankly, and here's the party you are waiting for...I don't know what to expect. The strongest assumption going into a midterm is the natural historic tendency for the party in power to do poorly. With an 50/50 Senate and 221/214 House, that usually means the incumbent party will lose both houses by wide margins. But then came Dobbs.  The decision in June by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow states to make abortion a crime. Thirteen states have completely outlawed abortion and Georgia has implemented an absurd six-week cut off for abortions.

The thinking is that this decision and those laws will motivate young people and especially women to vote. Over the summer we had several special congressional elections and a statewide referendum in Kansas that confirmed this theory.

But the polls have undeniably shifted in the Republican direction over the last six weeks or so. I'm not going to ignore that fact. But I do think this is a hard year to poll. The environment is different than some recent midterms for a few reasons:

1. Biden is not very popular but he's also not viscerally hated by the opposing base in the way that Trump and Obama were.

2. Voting is different than it was even four years ago.  A lot of people are now comfortable voting early and by mail. But we're also no longer dealing with COVID in the same way we were in 2020, so I expect a lot of people are planning to vote on election day, as they did for most of their lives.

3. Dobbs should drive more women and young people to vote this time and there is at least some date in the voting registration and early voting numbers that suggest this is happening. But you never want to be relying on unreliable voters and that is where the Democrats find themselves in 2022.

4. Most of the recent polling has been done by Republican aligned pollsters. The Real Clear Politics average in particular includes a lot more Republican friendly pollsters than it should. Right now the generic hose averages for forecasters are further apart than they should be with just a week to go. 

Real Clear Politics: Republican +2.9.

FiveThrityEight.com: Republican +0.8

Split Ticket*: Democratic +0.4.

*Split Ticket does not include partisan polls.

The Polling Dilemma.

I am not a wonk. This is a hobby, at best. So let me just summarize the polling issue as I understand it, mostly from reading Tweets from actual wonks and (semi) professional election nerds. 

The non-partisan pollsters have the race as a dead heat and the Republican friendly pollsters have them winning by a few points. The explanation for this is that Republican pollsters believe their people are under-responding, so they include more of them in their poll.

The might be right. They also might be undercounting the young people and women who are motivated by Dobbs.  This morning Cygnal put out  a generic ballot poll out with an electorate that was less two percent Black.  Blacks usually make up about 12 percent of the voting. But even in this poll, the Republicans only lead by three points. 

It's also worth mentioning that the prediction markets are pretty favorable to Republican candidates in the senate. They seem to think a sweep of the major races is likely. I don't see that happening mostly because I think Kelly will win AZ and NV will be very close. But I've always referenced predictions markets in my forecasts and I want to acknowledge that I am diverging from them a bit this time out.

On to the Non-Predictions.

I am terming all of these as Non-Predictions because I have a low degree of confidence in everything I am about to write. But you can't play the election social media game without at least going on the record. So here is my best guess.

One theme that we may see is Dems doing better in traditional Red states but losing ground in blue states. I think Red State Dems will be more motivated by Dobbs than complacent ones in Illinois or New York. And if all of those ads about crime and inflation really do scare people, this could be a long night for the Democrats.  But I think something more modest is more likely.

1. The House Will Go Republican But By a Small Majority.

In a dead-even national vote, the Republicans probably take the House. They only need to flip four seats. I expect them to clear that bar. They'll probably gain between 12 and 25 seats. Just to keep in fun, I'll say they wind up picking up 16 seats nets. That makes the official prediction: GOP 230, DEM 205.

2. The Senate Will Be Determined By a Georgia Run-off. Again.

The current senate is 50 Dems and 50 Republican. Vice-President Harris provides the tie-breaker for the Dems. Control of this chamber probably comes down to four elections-PA, GA, AZ and NV. The Dems need to win three of them to keep the Senate.

I think the Dems win Arizona. Mark Kelly is just too good a guy, too centrist and likeable to lose to a nutter. But this is Arizona so it will probably be close. Let's call it 51-47.

Nevada could go either way but I think CCM is more likely to pull it out than not. Let's call it 50-49.

Pennsylvania will also be close but after the debate I am favoring Dr. Oz. This election should have been put away weeks ago and I think John Fetterman will go down in infamy if he doesn't win. He had plenty of time to announce that he needed to step aside for medical reasons. 

The limited polling information we have seen since the debate is less discouraging than I would have expected. But I still believe Oz will get over the finish line. Let's call that 49.9 to 49.2.

Georgia should not be competitive. Herschel Walker is a serial liar and he is to be blunt, quite stupid. He is unqualified by every meaning of that word. But the GOP is sticking with him the way they always do. I think he'll take first place on election day but I don't think he will quite get to 50 percent. So this will head to a run-off. Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48 on election night.

If my other predictions are right, that runoff will determine who controls the senate. But we should at least mention the chance of upsets elsewhere.

The GOP thinks they have a shot in NH, CO and even WA. They won't win any of those races but NH could be a close final tally.

The Dems have three states where an upset seems possible-NC, WI and OH.  NC is slowly trending blue but it doesn't seem to be in the hurry that VA was to get there. WI is an evenly divided state but I think Ron Johnson's incumbency will get him over the line. His ads attacking Barnes for Defund the Police stuff have also been pretty effective. 

Ohio is probably the wildest card to me. It's redder than any of the states we've mentioned so far. But the Dems nominated their best possible candidate and the Republicans nominated somebody terrible. I think this is about a three point race. But I'll call it Vance 51, Ryan 47. 

I will mention one other race here. Iowa. Chuck Grassley is too old to be a senator. He'll be 94 when his next term ends. I think some people will vote for Admiral Franken on that basis alone. But I don't think it will be enough to win. Grassley 53, Franken 47. 

So my bottom line for election night is GOP 50, Dems 49....with one run-off to determine control of the chamber.  

3. Governor Races-Look for the Splits.

I don't expect any major upsets here. Sorry folks but Kathy Hochul is not losing to Lee Zeldin. Get that thought out of your head head. Oregon and Oklahoma are both close, interesting races because the political alignments are unconventional. Oregon has essentially 2 Democrats on the ballot running against Nike's hand-picked Republican opponent. The Democratic Party of Oklahoma also did something smart in nominating a former Republican to run against an unpopular incumbent.

But the results in most governor races will be predictable. The really interesting part will be the margin of victory by comparison to the senate races in the same state.  If candidate quality matters, we're going to see some 10-15 point spreads between these races on election night.  I think the PA-Gov nominee will outperform John Fetterman by a lot. I think the same will happen for the Republican Governors of Ohio and Georgia.  

The most depressing race will be Arizona. The Democrat (Katie Hobbs) declined to debate the Republican nominee (Kari Lake) because Lake is "too extreme." And extreme she is. But a refusal to debate just looks week. Lake is a former newscaster and very polished on TV. Hobbs should have debate her early-late September of the first week of October, taken the polling hit and then beat up Lake for the last month for being a crazy person. Instead, Lake is probably going to win by 3 or 4 points and she will instantly become a serious contender to be Trump's running mate in 2024.  (She is, by the way, the only woman that I think Trump would consider on his ticket.)

Just to go on the record-the Dems will add MA, MD and OK. Republicans will probably add Kansas and Nevada. But again, none of these are "predictions." Because nobody knows what is happening a week from tonight. 

IV. Summary.

So there you have it. The House GOP gains sixteen. The Senate remains where it is for now and the Democrats net one governor's mansion. But the biggest takeaway from this is that I have very low confidence in almost everything I have written. Maybe Dobbs will save the Democrats. Maybe those ads about crime and inflation will scare people into turning over the keys to the Republicans. 

What's really sad though is that the events of the last election and its aftermath will have so little impact on anything. Just two years ago the losing candidate refused to conceded and attempted to overturn the result by whipping his base into violence. And the impact on the average voter is negligible. The Republican Party remains viable. It will likely control at least one chamber of congress after this election. It might control both. 

And their only agenda if they do is to cause governmental chaos. So that they can nominate that same sore loser to put all though the same nightmare again.

Third General Election Forecast: Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2, McMullin 1 (Electoral College Clinton 359, Trump 179)

I did my first forecast before the conventions.  I stood pat with that prediction until three weeks ago, when Trump's enduring poll surge forced me to modify a 50-44 Clinton result just slightly to Clinton winning 49-45. Since then, we've had 3 debates and a never ending string of dumpster fires for the Republican ticket have tilted the race back in Hillary's favor. I am therefore adjusting my projection back toward the Democratic nominee. I now project Clinton to win 50 percent of the vote to Trump's 43 percent. One new wrinkle: I think Evan McMullin will get one percent of the vote. With a little bit of luck he could catch Jill Stein for 4th place.

Forecast	Popular	Electoral	Changes
First (July 10th)	Clinton 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2.	Clinton 348-190	(From 2012) Clinton wins NC and NE-2
Second (Sep 26th)	Clinton 49, Trump 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2	Clinton 340-198	Trump wins IA, NE-2 & ME-2
Third (October 16th)	Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2, McMullin 1	Clinton 359-179	Clinton wins IA, NE-2, ME-2 & Arizona

Specific Changes.

For the second time I'm updating only to move a few electoral college votes in one direction. In fact the four changes in this update cancel out the three changes from the first. Here are my thoughts on each:

Iowa and Maine 2nd District: These are places that Obama won twice and I don't think Trump is going to ouperform Romney anywhere. Maine's 2nd district is mostly white and rural, so that's probalby his best pickup opportunity but I think his oafish behavior has turned off enough people to prevent him doing better than Romney even there. This behavior simply does not fly in Iowa.  He will lose for the same reason that he lost the caucuses there: there is a more palatable alternative.

Nebraska 2nd district:  My hunch is that this will be be the closest jurisdiction on election night. Warren Buffet is fighting hard for Hillary there and I think she will out perform Obama in 2012, when he lost it but probably fare worse then 2008 when he won it.  Nate Silver gives Trump 51% of winning it.  I think Hillary will finish strong, so I'm tipping this over to him.

Arizona: This would be a significant pickup for Hillary. It's only voted for a Democrat once in the last 68 years. But the states Latino population is booming and Hillary is putting resources there, something that Obama never did. (In part because it was McCain's home state.)  I think the state has progressed and will flip blue.  

Four Scenarios for Election Night.

In a close election the battle grounds would be Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.  This is not shaping up to be a close election. THe battlegrounds are instead Arizona, Iowa and Georgia.  But how big will the margin be?  I think the race will take one of 4 paths. 

1. Clinton wins by more than Obama's 2008 Margin.  Barack Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by nearly 10 million votes. That translated to 7.36% and was good enough for 365 electoral votes.  I think Hillary has a tough rode to get to 365.  She should win all 332 of Obama's 2012 states plust North Carolina. That gets her to 348.  NE-2 and Arizona only get her to 360. (Note: the electoral college has been updated since the 20120 census, which tilted it a few points toward the Red, because Illinois, New York and Pennsylania all lost electors.)  To get past 360, she would need to add a true upset.  Georgia and or Utah would do the trick. So would Missouri.  Montana would only get her to 363. A sweep of all these states would get her to 395.  I think that's very unlikely.  Chances of Hillary winning with 365 or more electoral votes?  About 10%.

2. Clinton wins by less than Obama's 2008 margin but more than 2012.

Obama was re-elected by a margin roughly 1/2 the size of his first win.  He won the popular vote by just over five million votes, which worked out to 3.86% and 332 electoral votes  I think Hillary is very likely to win North Carolina and is only really needs to worry about Iowa and Maine's second district. If she wins NC but loses those 2, she still comes out ahead of Obama in 2012, gaining 15 but losing 7. That would be 340-198.  Chances of Hillary winning 333-364?  About 60%.

3.  Clinton Wins an Election Closer than 2012.

This would take a substantial shift towards Trump.  He presently seems incapable of making that happen, but outside events could intervene.  If Trump defends NC, he will probably add Iowa and ME-2 to Romney's pile.  That gets Hillary down to 325.  Trump might also win Ohio and Florida under these circumstances. That would get Hillary down to 278.  Chances of  Hillary winning with 270-332?  About 20%.

4. Trump Wins, Barely.

In my second forecast I went to some pains to describe Trump's likeliest path to 270.  That involves

1. Defending NC to keep Romney's 206 votes.

2. Add Iowa and ME-2. (213)

3. Add Ohio (231)

4. Add Florida (260)

5. Add Nevada (266)

6. Add New Hampshire (270)

That's still his likeliest path, but Nevada and New Hampshire seem to be trending towards Clinton in a big way. To replace those 10 votes, he would need a substantial upset in a largish blue state.  Michigan, Wisconsin and (of course) Pennsylania would do the trick. Nate Silver gives Trump about a 10 percent chance in PA and WI, slightly less in MI.  Chances of keeping Hillary below 270?  Less than 10%.

Enter McMullin.

Evan McMullin has emerged as a sane alternative for conservatives who are repulsed by Trump.  He is only on the ballot in 11 states but that doesn't really matter because he's only campaigning in Utah. He is running a de facto favorite son campaign, albeit in a state that is no longer his home. (He was born in Utah but raised in Washington State.)  He is a Mormon and a BYU alum.  His appeal is obvious especially to social consservatives that don't want to vote for a brigand like Trump but are reluctant to vote for the Democrat or Libertarian.

Some recent polls have him getting around 20% of the vote in Utah.  With a little luck he could make a 3 way race.  He is selling a fantasy scenario of winning Utah withe around 500,000 votes and somehow depriving Hillary of 270 electoral college votes.  The race would then go the House of Representatives, where he would have to persuade 26 delegations to vote for him.  This will not happen as it would require asking Republicans to ignore about 50 million votes case for its nominee in favor of a guy who probably will get around one million votes.

But Trump has turned off a lot of voters. There are a lot of people do not want to tell their kids and grandkids that they voted for a monster over the first female candidate for president. One optin is to lie, the other is to indulge McMullin's fantasy. At least some public intellectuals on the right are going to do just that.  With some luck, he could lap Jill Stein and the Green Party, especially if Hillary finishes strong and convincnes enough young people not to waste their votes on the profoundly unqualified Jill Stein.