This is the fourth presidential election cycle that I have forecast on this humble blog. For the first time ever, I am predicting that the Republican candidate is more likely to win than the Democratic candidate. But as of today, we at least know who the Democratic candidate will be and her name is Vice-President Kamala Harris.
My Thanks to All of You.
Joe Biden did something really great and patriotic today. I am a huge admirer of him and I think he's been the best president of my lifetime. I have also vocally supported him as the candidate this time around. But Father Time is undefeated. After a dreadful debate performance, Biden gave three lengthy interviews and a long press conference. His performance at each was underwhelming.
It had to be frustrating for him to realize that he's still doing a great job but can no longer project the strength and vigor that voters want from the president. I give him a lot of credit for making this difficult decision. But he's much more a patriot than egotist, so I'm not surprised he got there.
Now It's On To Chicago.
Kamala Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee. No one important will challenge her. The other day I tweeted that the roll call vote will be something like this: Harris 3,974 Newsom 15, Bernie Sanders 7, Gretchen Whitmer 4, Michelle Obama 3, Dean Phillips 1, Seth Moulton 0.
That's right about where I am still, with one exception. I forgot that some guy named Jason Palmer got on the ballot in American Samoa and beat Joe Biden in that caucus. He earned three delegates and deserves to keep them. Mr. Palmer-you rock.
But sometime between now and the Democratic convention in Chicago, Kamala Harris will have to pick a running mate. She has a handful of attractive options.
When picking a Vice-President, one should consider the following criteria, in order:
1. Are they plausibly qualified to be President of the United States?
2. Will they hurt me by pissing off a specific voting block or bringing scandal to my ticket?
3. Can they help me in a specific swing state?
4. Do we make a good team? Put differently, can they be part of sending a specific and cohesive message to voters?
In the hours since Biden dropped out, most of the running mate talk has focused on four governors. I think there is also one senator worthy of being vetted and considered by VP Harris. Here are the five most likely running mates, listed in order of my preference.
1. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan. I'll be direct. I think she's the best choice. She probably takes Michigan off of the map. She is wildly popular in her home state and is good on television. I also think that picking a woman would be bold choice for Harris. It would reflect confidence and really underline that this election is about transitioning to the next generation
2. Senator Mark Kelly, Arizona. He's an astronaut, which is about the coolest thing a person can be. He doesn't alienate any particular block of voters and he could help in Arizona, a state that Biden won by just 10K votes last time. The only downside here is that it would put his senate seat up for a special election in a midterm. But he has to be considered seriously. He's also a good man with a very sympathetic personal history that ties into the issue of gun violence.
I don't know if I see a "brand" angle but I think a Harris-Kelly ticket can make this vote about abortion access and gun violence. Those issues are winners for Democrats.
3. Governor Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania. He's going to be a popular source of speculation because Harris probably needs to win Pennsylvania and she doesn't have the connections there that Joe Biden did. But he's in his first term, which means he's green. Like Harris he is a former attorney-general of a large state. The creates an interesting brand idea but this one might not catch on with some younger voters. He's also Jewish and the first black woman to run for president might be tempted to stick with a white Christian man.
4. Governor Roy Cooper, North Carolina. I don't know a lot about him. But he's a popular governor of light red state. But NC is a slight reach for the Democrats this year and his lieutenant governor is a full-blown nut bag and when Cooper is out of the state, the Lieutenant Governor gets to be the "acting governor." (This particular lunatic is also the Republican nominee for governor this year.) I don't like this pick but Harris is said to be fond of him, so he could end up getting the job.
5.Governor Any Beshear, Kentucky. He is a really good politician and his electoral success in a red state shouldn't be ignored. But he doesn't shore up any particular swing state and I'm not aware of any personal connection between he and Vice-President Harris. He's worth a look, but well, he's not as strong of an option to my mind.
Other names will be floated but I really think she's going to pick one of these five. Time is short so she can't get too creative. Better to stick with prospects who have been closely examined by voters, at least in their home state.
And Let's Win There.
Okay, so now for the hard part. Winning the general election.
I expect that Kamala Harris will get a good round of press and that will probably translate into modestly better poll numbers than we have seen over recent weeks. There are a whole lot of people who don't link Trump but claimed they were more worried about Biden because of his age. The fight for those votes in November will probably determine the winner.
But I still think she's the under dog. The map I post below is exactly what I would have posted if Biden were still the expected nominee.
The Roads to 270.
I'm reasonably confident that Kamala Harris will win at least 226 Electoral College Votes. That leaves her 44 votes shy of 270. The states at play can be put in two broad categories:
The Blue Wall: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10)
The Sun Belt: North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).
1. Sweep the Blue Wall.
226 + Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) get her to exactly 270.
2. Win Two Blue Wall and Two Sun Belt.
226 + WI + MI =251
NC (16) or GA (16) gets Harris to 267. She would then need to win more state to get to 270.
3. Michigan and 29 Sun Belt Votes
4. Wisconsin and 34 Electoral Votes. (This seems very unlikely. If Harris loses MI and PA, she is probably not winning Three of the four Sun Belt states.)
It's not easy to write that I think Donald Trump is more likely than not to win this next presidential election, but right now I think Kamala Harris is on a path to winning 241 Electoral Votes .She has 106 days to get that up to 270. If you live in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, I hope you like political ads on during TV commercial breaks.
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