The first debate of the 2024 general election is tonight. This is very early for a general election debate but this debate is important because we are likely to only get one more after tonight.
It's also important because I think tonight will be the night that the average American finally accepts the fact that this election will be between the same two guys as last time. So I want to get a few thoughts out there.
1. Expectations.
The first debate is always bad for the incumbent. Trump got his ass kicked. Obama got his ass kicked. W got his ass kicked. GHW Bush came in third. Reagan did so poorly that concerns about his age came back out in the public. Only Bill Clinton held his own. Nixon didn't do any debates.
My explanation for this is that sitting presidents are not used to being on a stage with someone who must be treated as an equal. They are to used to having people defer to them and it disorients them when an opponent pushes back on everything they say.
But tonight might be different. For one thing, these are both men who have been president. And for another, Donald Trump lives in a bubble of ass-kissing sycophants way bigger than the West Wing of the White House. Biden also has the advantage of not being crazy.
The Republicans have spent four years telling their voters that Joe Biden is a drooling moron. About a week ago they realized this was a mistake and have since been speculating that Biden will be hyped on something or other. (Some say Gatorade, other say prescription drugs. I wish I was making this up but we really do live in a very dumb time.
Biden does have to avoid looking old. He will probably have at least one moment where he looks confused or uses the wrong name, gets a fact wrong or maybe embellishes the truth a little. That's not great. But the guy at the other podium will be ranting and swearing and lying.
II. Questions That Should Be Asked.
1. To Donald Trump, "Who won the 2020 election for president?" Joe Biden's response better begin with something like, "He's not man enough to admit he lost."
2. To Joe Biden, "Should voters have any cause for concern related to your age and physical health. (Biden will have some canned line ready for this but it's a valid question. I'd like both of them to have to answer it.)
3. To Joe Biden, "Tell the American people why withdrawing from Afghanistan benefitted them."
I could do an hour on this. Joe only needs to do a minute and a half.
4. To Donald Trump. "You are awfully fond of Vladimir Putin, the House of Saud, Xi Jinping and Kim Jung Un. Do you believe it is important for America to promote democracy abroad?"
5. To Joe Biden. "Do you regret any of the policy choices you made that led to the high inflation we experienced in 2022 and 2023?"
6. To Donald Trump, "One third of American women now live in states with total or near-total bans on abortion. This is because three of your appointees voted to overturn Roe vs. Wade. Do you think that was good for America?"
7. For both of them. "Why do you think tariffs on imports are a good idea? Why do both of you think that your tariffs work but the other guy's don't?
I'd also like to see them have to answer some of the questions for the naturalized citizenship test, but that's a bit too much to ask for.
III. The Response.
Hopefully Biden has a good night like he did on the State of the Union. Hopefully he avoids losing his cool at the loser eight feet away from him. Hopefully he smiles and looks up beat. Hopefully the American people remember how crazy and unpleasant Donald Trump is.
But both sides will declare victory. That's how they do. And if the polls are bad for Trump, he'll roll out his VP announcement to change the subject.
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