Faint Signs of a Bounce (The Road to 270, Take 7)

This post is a day late and it will also be very brief. Since the Republican convention ended, the mood in the media has been an anxious anticipation of a tightening race. But 5 days after the Republican convention ended, we are seeing only a modest bounce for the incumbent. Biden's lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average dipped from 7.8 points to 6.2 points. It currently stands at 6.5. And Biden's chances in Nate Silver's forecast dropped slightly from a high of 73% down to 68%. It currently sits at 70%. Trump has gotten a couple fo decent polls. One poll of Michigan by a Republican pollster had him up by two. And a national poll conducted by Emerson right after the convention showed Biden's lead down to two. But the cross-tabs on that poll showed some screwy results, like Biden winning the suburbs but losing the cities. More importantly, Morning consult released a new round of battle groun polling yesterday tha showed Biden up in every swing state except North Carolina, where he was two points behind. The only state that showed significant movement was Arizona, where Biden's lead went up to 10 points. Two new national polls are out this morning, showing Joe Biden up by seven and eight points, respectively. So with both conventions behind us and Labor Day upon us, Joe Biden maintains a clear lead in national polls. He also has the upper hand in the electoral college and just announced a massive haul of $300 million dollars raised in August. His campaign is doing great. The biggest news fo the week might be that Donald Trump has embraced the notion that recent violence in Kenosha and Portland is a harbinger of things to come in Joe Biden's America. It has apparently not occurred to him or his senior staff that these events have happened in Donald Trump's America. No matter. If this gambit was going to work, we would be seeing more movement in his direction. There will be a flurry of polls in the next week or so. But for now, I remain confident that Biden is the heavy favorite. And I'm not sure what moves Trump can pull to change that dynamic. 

I. The Forecasts. I'm shaving one point of my forecast. I now give Biden and 83% chance of winning. I'm not flipping any states, so my official forecast is still Biden 319, Trump 219. Here is a look at how others see it:

II. The Paths. As the election gets in full swing, I thought it might be helpful to write a bit about what the most important states mean to the Biden campaign.

 

a. The Straightest Line. Hillary Clinton won 232 electoral votes. Her closest path to victory would have been to carry Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (11). Those three states would have gotten her to 278, but she lost each of them by less than one point. So the most obvious path for Biden is to do one point better in each of those states. 

But if something goes wrong, here is how he can make it up by winning something in the sun belt. 

b. The make-ups. 

If Biden loses Wisconsin (or Minnesota) he can make up for it by winning AZ, NC or FL.

If Biden loses Wisconsin AND Minnesota he needs to win FL or AZ AND NC. 

If Biden loses Wisconin (or Minnesota) and Michigan, he needs to win FL or AZ and NC. 

If Biden loses Michigan, he needs to win AZ, NC or FL. 

If Biden loses Michigan and Wisconin (or Minnesota), he needs to win any 2 among NC, AZ and FL. 

If Biden loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, he needs to win FL or NC AND AZ. 

If Biden loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he wold need to win FL plus NC or AZ. 

c. The quirks. 

For all of the above scenarios, GA could do the job of NC. I think Biden is more likely to win NC, but this could be a year that rearranges some things. Also must note that NH could throw a monkey wrench in some of these secnarios, but it's only 4 electoral votes and I think Biden will do well there.

A Lot Has Happened But Nothing Has Changed. (The Road to 270, Take 6)

The election is 10 weeks from today. It has been exactly 30 days since my last forecast. In those 30 days, the Joe Biden selected kamala Harris as his running mate and the Democrats held their modified mostly vitual convention from a small arena adjacent to a minor league baseball stadium in Wilmington, Delaware. Both Senator Harris and the convention have been well-received. The polls have been pretty steady. Biden's average in the "poll of polls" has been somewhere between seven and nine for most of the summer. At the moment it's about eight. The Republican convention started last night to decidenly mixed reviews. The early speakers were Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, who got mostly good reviews but the night ended with bizarre speeches by both Donald Trump Junior and his girlfriend, who appeared not to notice that she was addressing an empty room. For reasons unkown to this correspondent, they both finished their speeches several minutes faster than planned, leaving seven minutes of dead air time for the networks to fill with pundits desperately trying not to speculate about what caused that. The other item of interest to readers of this blog that happened since our last forecast is that Nate Silver finally published his forecast. The headline is that he gave Biden a 71% chance of winning, the exact same percentage that he gave Hillary of winning going into Election Day 2016. But I hvae to mention that the new website is an ugly, awful mess. The graphics are busy and stupid. It is difficult to get important information such as what polls have been added to the forecase recently. I'm still not sure why he took so long to publish, but we can safely rule out a desire to improve the viewing experience of his audience. I. My Forecast. I have not changes to announce. My previsou forecast had Biden at 334 and Trump at 204. I see no reason to change that. Last week I was wavering on putting North Carolina in Trump's column but we have seen gotten two polls that show Biden up by 4 and 3 points, respectively. That race will be close but Biden is the narrow favorite for now. II. Other Forecasts. Now that Nate Silver has joined the fray, I think we can make a chart to track where everyone stands.

With 70 days to go, there is something of a consensus-Biden is the favorite. He will probably win with a state or two to spare but things could get close. I am having a hard time seeing Trump make up all that ground though. The American people know him and they don't like him. The message of the Democratic convention was both straight-foward and true-the President is an asshole and maybe that shouldn't be so. The Republican convention seems to be a mixture of scaring people into thinking that their way of life is imperiled and that only Donald Trump can save them. That would have a lot more plausibility if we weren't still living in a pandemic as the rest of the world gets back to normal. Trump has a big enough base that he won't be blown out like McGovern or Mondale. He should even avoid Duakakis like numbers. I intend to update this blog every Tuesday between now and November 3rd. At some point, things will probably be close than they are right now. Maybe Biden will have a bad debate. Maybe the deaths from and new cases of COVID-19 will plummet enough to create a sense of relief. But it sure seems more likely that we'll thrash about with something like a 50 to 42 split for most of the coming months.

Being the Story of the Worst Person in the World and the Time He Spent Working for Donald Trump

The below post is a review of "The Room Where it Happened" by former National Security Advisor John Bolton.

I struggled with how to rate this book. It contains important historical information. The writing style is vintage prep school/Ivy league. It is unadorned with digressions or excessive color. No infinitives are split and ending a sentence with a proposition is a a proposition up with which he will not put. 

But he's also a raging asshole. The books contains no grace notes. He rarely credits anyone with any good ideas or for being helpful to him in carrying out his duties. There is not a whiff of humanity on display here. If you think I'm exaggerating consider that he at one point complains that former Chief of Staff John Kelly spent too much time visiting the grave of his son at Arlington National Cemetery. 

The details of daily life in Trump world are about what you expect. The President is a deeply unserious person, filled with personal rage and unable of paying attention to any subject more complex than a personal insult or longer than a matchbook. Whenever the subject of Iran comes up, he goes on a tirade about wanting to prosecute John Kerry for talking to the Iranians. Whenever the subject of Afghanistan comes up, he rails about how corrupt the president of Afghanistan is. Small problem there-the stories he tells are about Hamid Karzai who was has not been president of Afghanistan since 2014. 

But we already know what an ignorant buffoon the author's former boss is. What he can't help revealing is what a malevolent, remorseless prick he himself is. At one point he describes the night that Donald Trump reversed a decision to strike targets in Iran because the lawyers told him it could cause as many as 150 human deaths. (The mission was to avenge the loss of an unmanned drone over the Persian Gulf.) Bolton counters that the more accurate number was probably closer to 100 because one of the 3 proposed targets would probably not be located in time. He describes Trump's decision to back down thusly, "In my government experience, this was the most irrational thing I ever witnessed any President do."

There is one slightly juvenile joy in this book. Bolton delights in shitting on the other members of Trump's inner circle. His criticisms of Nikki Haley wreak of sexism, but then again maybe she is a shallow egotist obsessed with her own political future. His treatment of Kelly and Jim Mattis are down right insulting. He is slightly ambivalent about Pompeo but ultimately throws him under the bus too. The only public figure that avoids Bolton's insults is Mike Pence. Some of that is probably genuine. Pence appears to at least be an adult and to have had some modest success in counseling against Trump's very worst instincts. But I suspect he real reason for this is much more base. John Bolton probably figures Pence is likely to be the Republican nominee next time around. And like any shallow egoist, he is a little too mindful of his own political future. 

The Epilogue is 12 page whine about why he was right not to testify in Trump's impeachment. His reasons for this decision are too stupid to detail but the short version is this-he didn't want to weaken the Executive branch. Because deep down, John Bolton is an authoritarian. He just was not happy about how reluctant the current authoritarian was to use military force.

For four years, I have tried to think of circumstances in which I might vote for Donald Trump. That has not been an easy answer. But I now have one that is easy to spot-I would vote for Donald Trump if the other candidate was John Bolton.

4th Democratic Debate Grades and New Rankings

There were profound events in the world this week. The President of the United States left an ally to be slaughtered by Turkish militias. He did this because his lazy, weak and corrupt.  Tonight's debate should have focused on that, but it did not.

That said, this debate was more substantive than the earlier debates. The biggest headline is that Warren took a lot of flak, as befits her status as the new front-runner. As for how she did, the news is mixed. Overall she did not do great. But there might be a silver lining in this-the folks who did best at attacking her, are pretty far back in the polls. 

As with the previous debates, I'll give a tactical and a strategic grade for each candidate.  And in  day or two I will update my rankings of the candidates.

WINNERS:

1. Amy Klobuchar   Tactical: A  Strategic: A

If you read this blog regularly-and there are at least six of you who do, then you know Klobuchar is my preferred candidate. Tonight she was the only person who mentioned Trump's betrayal of the Kurds  in the first hour of the debate. She also did a good job of pointing out the weaknesses of Warren's policies and campaign.  She needed a big night and she really should get a bounce from it. I don't think it will be enough to get her near the top but I hope it's enough to get her in the next debate.

2. Pete Buttigieg  Tactical:  A-  Strategic A

Solid on all points. An adult and a skilled debater. I am beginning to think he might be ready for this job after all. (And I never thought I would say that.)

3. Bernie Sanders  Tactical:  A- Strategic:  A-

Bernie had one important job tonight-look healthy.  He did that. And he wasn't bad on the substance, given how played out his shtick is.  No harm done to him tonight and he might rebound from a recent dip.

4. Cory Booker   Tactical:  B+   Strategic:  A-

Cory usually plays the voice of reason and he did again tonight. But he never seems to get traction after his strong performances, in part because he usually says something annoying. Tonight he brought up his veganism three times.  That is four times too many.

5  (TIE) Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke   Tactical: B+  Strategic:  B+

They were fine. But I don't see either of them rocketing up the ranks anytime soon.

7. Andrew Yang  Tactical: B  Strategic: B

He's not a serious candidate, so I don't grade him based on whether he's going to be president. But he made some good points and probably will raise some more money for his future podcast and multi-level marketing empire.

8.  Joe Biden    Tactical: B  Strategic:  C

Joe avoided any huge gaffes, which counts for something but it's impossible to watch him speak for even one minute without thinking about his age.  He gets visibly confused in ways that make me uncomfortable.  I don't know if there is a solution to that.

9. Elizabeth Warren   Tactical:  C+  Strategic:  B-

She looked evasive and even duplicitous in her half-assed explanation/defense of Medicare for All plan. 

10. Kamala Harris  Tactical: B-  Strategic:  C-

She went for some very easy applause line on reproductive choice by saying things that literally everyone on the stage agrees with. But then she really went hard at Elizabeth Warren on the silliest issue possible-banning Donald Trump from Twitter.  That diminishes her already fading candidacy.

11. Tom Steyer:  Tactical:   C  Strategic:  C

The moderators were correct to give him the bare minimum of attention and he did his best to make them not regret that decision.  Some of his answers were delivered competently. He's obviously been rehearsing for this moment. He had a neat thing of starting every answer with a compliment of someone other candidate.  But this is the saddest middle age crisis I've ever been forced to watch on television.  If he wanted to do good with his fortune, he has a ton of options.  This verkhakta campaign ain't one. 

12. Tulsi Gabbard  Tactical:  Incomplete  Strategic: Incomplete

She is loathsome. But I can't grade her fairly because I'm not sure what her objective is. Maybe she wants to be the presidential nominee of the Democratic party. Maybe she wants to build some kind of political movement based on.....God knows what. But she did nothing to dispel rumors/conspiracy thinking that she intends to run as an independent or third party candidate.

I want to state that I was and am firmly opposed to our military invasion of Iraq. But for her to act like Trump's betrayal of the Kurds was a price worth paying for bringing 1,000 soldiers home* is despicable.

*They are not coming home yet. They are going to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, because the Saudi government is renting them from a man who thinks our military is a revenue center and our soldiers are Hessians. 

President Trump (Volume 2)

I wrote Volume 1 of this series less than six weeks into the Trump administration. I was planning to write them roughly every three months. The main purpose of these posts was to be tracking predictions I made the night Donald Trump was elected. I have neglected writing them in part because while Donald Trump has a rare gift for making controversy, none of the events of the past ten months seemed to clearly delineate the end of the beginning of this presidential term.  Then yesterday happened.  Paul Manafort and Rick Gates were indicted and we learned that George Papadopoulos had plead guilty to lying to the FBI about meetings between the Trump campaign and the Russians.

It is no longer possible for Trump world to say with a straight face that there is no evidence of collusion.  There was collusion. It remains to be seen how significant that collusion in breadth and scope, but it happened. And now Trump must govern under the credible shadow of Bob Mueller for the foreseeable future.

I. New Business: The first 284 days of President Trump.

The bad news is that Donald Trump is bad at being president.  The good news is that Donald Trump is bad at being president.  The bad part is that almost a year into the job, he continues to embarrass his country and cheapen his office every time he speaks.  He fucked up a condolence call to a war widow. He danced with a sword in Saudi Arabia.  He welshed on a promise to pay $25,000 to a gold star dad, until the media shamed him int doing it. He referred to the governor of the Virgin Island as their president. He started a needless fight with NFL players and an ESPN broadcaster.  He is, in short, a feckless idiot.

And this stupidity manifests itself, more substantively in an inability to get much done in congress.  He has failed to repeal Obamacare. His tax reform ideas are laughably shallow and languishing before a tepid congress.  He hasn't passed anything difficult or meaningful, despite having control of both houses.

Which is not to say that he has not done damage.  His cabinet appointments have almost without exception proven to be inept. His secretary of state called him a fucking moron, while also compiling a reputation for his own incompetence as the head of our most important department of government. His ambassador to the United Nations seems hell bent on scuttling the Iran deal, which would mean that we would go back to having nuclear crises with 2/3 of the Axis of Evil.  Ben Carson can not be bothered to learn what his job is and we all have to wonder how Rick Perry's doing at learning what nuclear energy is.

And then there's his own White House staff.  Bannon and Priebus were both fired so the reigns could be turned over to John Kelly, whom the president insists on referring to as General Kelly.  Just 30 days ago it was still fashionable to think that Kelly was going to save us form this mess.  Since that time he has been trotted out to defend Trump for offending the widow of Sgt. Johnson during the condolence call. While doing so he smeared a member of congress. The falsity of his statements about her were established by video tape within hours.  A week later, he still refuses to apologize for his inaccurate statement.  Oh and he chalked up the Civil War to a "failure to compromise". It was unclear at press time how Mr. Kelly proposed the slaves should have compromised their way out of bondage.

The strongest impression that I get of Donald Trump is that he is a very lonely man.  He is obsessed with television and reportedly watches Fox News for hours at a time. He often tweets what Fox & Friends covers in the morning. At night he sometimes complains about television reporters and editorial boards. Now he has indictments to worry about.  I still think it's unlikely that the Russia scandal ends with him in handcuffs or even being removed from office.  But I see dark days ahead, because this lonely old man worries about things like that.  And worst of all, he knows exactly what he is guilty of.  That can't be comforting.

II.  Old Business: The State of My Predictions About Trump.

1. "The Iran Deal will be torn up."
Well, probably. He has taken the first steps towards this but his inner circle seem unwilling to blatantly lie about the fact that Iran is complying with their end of the deal.  As it stands, I believe he will back out of the deal.  Which means that our sanctions will go back in place but the European Union and Russia and China will not sanction Tehran at all.  So Iran will be free to pursue nuclear weapons, and do business with the rest of the world.  America would gain the theoretical ability to conduct military operations against Iran, which would result in a calamity roughly three times as big as what Iraq has been for the past 14 years.  Let's hope that Mattis and Tillerson continue to delay their boss from being completely reckless on this front.

2.  "Antonin Scalia will be replaced by a conservative rather than Merrick Garland."
Check.  And there are some real signs that Neil Gorsuch will be worse than Scalia on substance and form.  He is perhaps second only to Kelly in giving up the ghost about being a moderating influence on our politics.

3.  "ISIS has a new propaganda talking point."
Well, yeah, that's true.  But to be fair to the president, ISIS has lost a lot of territory this year.  In normal times that would be a big story.  But no one is paying attention to that because Trump keeps making side shows here at home. And because no one really thinks that the destruction of Islamic State will be the end of what westerners really care about: large acts of terror committed in Europe and North America.


4.  "It is now the official policy of the United States government that Climate Change is a hoax perpetrated by China to disrupt American manufacturing. "

Still true.

5. "At some point next year the Congress will repeal Obamacare."

I'm very glad to be wrong so far about this one. The next trick will be to convince Trump that it's good for his reputation to save Obamacare by fully funding the exchanges and the advertising for Obamacare plans.  The hardcore Trumpers like Bannon and Miller will hate that, but it might be something he could be Rumplestilkin'd into doing.

6. "At some point next year the Congress will pass massive tax cuts and the overwhelming majority of these cuts will benefit very wealthy people.:

This is a coin toss now.  Paul Ryan seems to be a dead-ender on this one and I think that a tax bill will get out of the house.  But I'm not sure the Senate will be able to pass anything along the lines of what is being proposed.  Trump needs this bill but he's spending his very limited political capital on Twitter feuds. Frankly if the Republicans don't bass tax cuts, I don't know what their game is even about.

7. "Immigration policy is about to become a lot less thoughtful."
This was the safest prediction I made, but even I didn't think they would be detaining 10 year old girls with cerebreal palsy.

8. "There will be a bunch of dumb protectionist policies put in place. "

Well he did withdraw from TPP, and he's always prattling on about trade deficits.  But it seems this issue was more symbolic than anything.  The biggest thing to watch for on this front next year is NAFTA.  Trump would be wise to get some marginal changes to the deal and claim that it's a huge, tremendous win for American factories.  But if things go bad for him elsewhere, he might decide to blow the whole thing up. And that will hurt the whole world.

9. "The implements of the federal government will be used to settle the president's political scores. "

Every damn day.

10. "The new school of political science thought will be personality based."
Meh. Sure.

III. New Business: What to Look For.

It is easy to fulminate on the spectacle that is Donald J. Trump living in the White House and flying on Air Force One and being saluted by colonels and green berets.  The ludicrous nature of these visuals is captivating.  The damage this spectacular narcissist will do is going to be hard to measure.  But there are at least some signs that institutions are holding the line, as best they can.  Yesterday's news was the best sign of that yet.  I do think the next nine months will be worse than the previous nine.  But maybe, just maybe, the senate and the courts and the man's own incompetence will make things less terrible than I feared they would be 51 weeks ago when this horrible man triple bank shot his way into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  

But if there is one thing to look for between now and the next time I get around to chronicling this b-list gangster movie of a government, it is this: the way that right-wing news outlets kowtow to their leader.  The Wall Street Journal editorial board yesterday proposed this modest solution: Trump should pardon everyone in his inner circle, including himself, of any and all crimes related to Russia, and then resume governing.  Maybe this is just the Wall Street Journal's fever dream about tax reform not passing.  But someone in that room should have said "Guys, you've just disavowed the rule of law. Do that and we can never be taken seriously again."

But no one said that and no one will say it on Fox or Breitbart, etc. But those people need in the #MAGAsphere on Twitter and every asshole uncle around the Thanksgiving dinner table in a few weeks needs to hear the truth: we are nothing without the rule of law. And it's the job of citizens to tell them. Every chance you get.

Third General Election Forecast: Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2, McMullin 1 (Electoral College Clinton 359, Trump 179)

I did my first forecast before the conventions.  I stood pat with that prediction until three weeks ago, when Trump's enduring poll surge forced me to modify a 50-44 Clinton result just slightly to Clinton winning 49-45. Since then, we've had 3 debates and a never ending string of dumpster fires for the Republican ticket have tilted the race back in Hillary's favor. I am therefore adjusting my projection back toward the Democratic nominee. I now project Clinton to win 50 percent of the vote to Trump's 43 percent. One new wrinkle: I think Evan McMullin will get one percent of the vote. With a little bit of luck he could catch Jill Stein for 4th place.

Forecast	Popular	Electoral	Changes
First (July 10th)	Clinton 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2.	Clinton 348-190	(From 2012) Clinton wins NC and NE-2
Second (Sep 26th)	Clinton 49, Trump 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2	Clinton 340-198	Trump wins IA, NE-2 & ME-2
Third (October 16th)	Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2, McMullin 1	Clinton 359-179	Clinton wins IA, NE-2, ME-2 & Arizona

Specific Changes.

For the second time I'm updating only to move a few electoral college votes in one direction. In fact the four changes in this update cancel out the three changes from the first. Here are my thoughts on each:

Iowa and Maine 2nd District: These are places that Obama won twice and I don't think Trump is going to ouperform Romney anywhere. Maine's 2nd district is mostly white and rural, so that's probalby his best pickup opportunity but I think his oafish behavior has turned off enough people to prevent him doing better than Romney even there. This behavior simply does not fly in Iowa.  He will lose for the same reason that he lost the caucuses there: there is a more palatable alternative.

Nebraska 2nd district:  My hunch is that this will be be the closest jurisdiction on election night. Warren Buffet is fighting hard for Hillary there and I think she will out perform Obama in 2012, when he lost it but probably fare worse then 2008 when he won it.  Nate Silver gives Trump 51% of winning it.  I think Hillary will finish strong, so I'm tipping this over to him.

Arizona: This would be a significant pickup for Hillary. It's only voted for a Democrat once in the last 68 years. But the states Latino population is booming and Hillary is putting resources there, something that Obama never did. (In part because it was McCain's home state.)  I think the state has progressed and will flip blue.  

Four Scenarios for Election Night.

In a close election the battle grounds would be Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.  This is not shaping up to be a close election. THe battlegrounds are instead Arizona, Iowa and Georgia.  But how big will the margin be?  I think the race will take one of 4 paths. 

1. Clinton wins by more than Obama's 2008 Margin.  Barack Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by nearly 10 million votes. That translated to 7.36% and was good enough for 365 electoral votes.  I think Hillary has a tough rode to get to 365.  She should win all 332 of Obama's 2012 states plust North Carolina. That gets her to 348.  NE-2 and Arizona only get her to 360. (Note: the electoral college has been updated since the 20120 census, which tilted it a few points toward the Red, because Illinois, New York and Pennsylania all lost electors.)  To get past 360, she would need to add a true upset.  Georgia and or Utah would do the trick. So would Missouri.  Montana would only get her to 363. A sweep of all these states would get her to 395.  I think that's very unlikely.  Chances of Hillary winning with 365 or more electoral votes?  About 10%.

2. Clinton wins by less than Obama's 2008 margin but more than 2012.

Obama was re-elected by a margin roughly 1/2 the size of his first win.  He won the popular vote by just over five million votes, which worked out to 3.86% and 332 electoral votes  I think Hillary is very likely to win North Carolina and is only really needs to worry about Iowa and Maine's second district. If she wins NC but loses those 2, she still comes out ahead of Obama in 2012, gaining 15 but losing 7. That would be 340-198.  Chances of Hillary winning 333-364?  About 60%.

3.  Clinton Wins an Election Closer than 2012.

This would take a substantial shift towards Trump.  He presently seems incapable of making that happen, but outside events could intervene.  If Trump defends NC, he will probably add Iowa and ME-2 to Romney's pile.  That gets Hillary down to 325.  Trump might also win Ohio and Florida under these circumstances. That would get Hillary down to 278.  Chances of  Hillary winning with 270-332?  About 20%.

4. Trump Wins, Barely.

In my second forecast I went to some pains to describe Trump's likeliest path to 270.  That involves

1. Defending NC to keep Romney's 206 votes.

2. Add Iowa and ME-2. (213)

3. Add Ohio (231)

4. Add Florida (260)

5. Add Nevada (266)

6. Add New Hampshire (270)

That's still his likeliest path, but Nevada and New Hampshire seem to be trending towards Clinton in a big way. To replace those 10 votes, he would need a substantial upset in a largish blue state.  Michigan, Wisconsin and (of course) Pennsylania would do the trick. Nate Silver gives Trump about a 10 percent chance in PA and WI, slightly less in MI.  Chances of keeping Hillary below 270?  Less than 10%.

Enter McMullin.

Evan McMullin has emerged as a sane alternative for conservatives who are repulsed by Trump.  He is only on the ballot in 11 states but that doesn't really matter because he's only campaigning in Utah. He is running a de facto favorite son campaign, albeit in a state that is no longer his home. (He was born in Utah but raised in Washington State.)  He is a Mormon and a BYU alum.  His appeal is obvious especially to social consservatives that don't want to vote for a brigand like Trump but are reluctant to vote for the Democrat or Libertarian.

Some recent polls have him getting around 20% of the vote in Utah.  With a little luck he could make a 3 way race.  He is selling a fantasy scenario of winning Utah withe around 500,000 votes and somehow depriving Hillary of 270 electoral college votes.  The race would then go the House of Representatives, where he would have to persuade 26 delegations to vote for him.  This will not happen as it would require asking Republicans to ignore about 50 million votes case for its nominee in favor of a guy who probably will get around one million votes.

But Trump has turned off a lot of voters. There are a lot of people do not want to tell their kids and grandkids that they voted for a monster over the first female candidate for president. One optin is to lie, the other is to indulge McMullin's fantasy. At least some public intellectuals on the right are going to do just that.  With some luck, he could lap Jill Stein and the Green Party, especially if Hillary finishes strong and convincnes enough young people not to waste their votes on the profoundly unqualified Jill Stein.