How About The News, Huh? (The Road to 270, Take 12)

 I.  The Horse Race.

Last week I wrote one day early because of the first debate. It occurred to me that I will do my last forecast on election eve, so I will stick with Mondays for these posts over the last four weeks of this blessed election season.

We have received enough post-debate polling to confirm what we all saw with our own eyes-Joe Biden won the debate.  More importantly and decisively, Donald Trump lost the debate, spectacularly.  He needed a win and he couldn't even muster a tie. Joe Biden leads the RCP average by 8.3 points, up from 6.8 points one week ago. Biden leads the 538.com average by 8.2 points, up 1.3 points from one week ago.

State-level polling has also moved in Biden's direction. Biden now has stable leads in enough states to win the presidency. He now leads every swing state that Real Clear Politics tracks closely.  He leads in each of the critical states of MI/PA/WI by five or six points. He leads in Florida by two and Arizona by three. Polling has also been close in the states that Biden doesn't need to win. Iowa, Ohio and Georgia are all  competitive and the Democrats are making a play for Texas. 

Some of this polling was conducted after President Trump tested positive for COVID-19. But most of it was taken before we learned the full extent of how reckless trump was in the days between the first debate and the public disclosure of his diagnosis. There was some concern that people might rally to the president because he is ill but his cavalier treatment of the COVID crisis works against that. And, as can be depended upon, his erratic and reckless behavior only underlines the fact that he is not up for this job.

It has been difficult to get accurate information about the President's health. His doctors and political staff have both obfuscated the details. Some doctors on social media have interpreted the information about his treatment as indicating a severe case. But it is equally plausible that the President is steam rolling his doctors into prescribing whatever treatments are available, without regard to side-effects or medical efficacy.

In the past 24 hours he seems to be doing better. The most encouraging sign so far is that he woke up this morning and released a flurry of nonsensical all caps Tweets from his iPhone. Nature is healing, and perhaps too the president. But he's not out of the woods yet, even though he talked his way out of the hospital a few hours ago. He has been given oxygen at least twice. He is old and he is obese. If he really is loading up on experimental drugs, then he might experience severe side effects. He could take a turn for the worse and leaving the hospital early has all the earmarks of being premature and stupid.

His health will dominate the news, at least until the Veep debate. Now that he is discharged, he will want to recklessly throw himself back into campaigning. Maybe he will wear a mask more often. Maybe he will avoid large crowds. And maybe, just maybe, he will keep being the same brazen jackass that we elected four years ago. (I am purposely avoiding any medical predictions here. That is not my beat.)

But time is not on his side, no matter what his prognosis might be. Trump needs to change the narrative. He probably thinks "I beat COVID" will rally his people to him. But I think this story reminds a lot more people that we are so very bad off because he has been reckless with everyone's life and health, not just his own.

II.  Veep Debate Prep.

The Vice-Presidential Debate is not an important event most cycles. Bob Dole screwed up really badly in the 1976 debate, Admiral Stockdale became a punchline in the 1992 debate and the 2008 demonstrated how low the media would set the bar for debate performances by a certified moron when they acted like Sarah Palin deserved praise for not literally shitting on the carpet.

This year will be hyped as a bigger deal because both candidates are elderly and at least one of them has suffered a serious medical condition in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Senator Harris has the cadence and style of a prosecutor. She knows how to build a case. But this doesn't necessarily help in a forum where she can't ask follow-up questions. She was not as effective defending herself in the primary debates and I expect Pence to have a few lines of attack prepared. But her main objective is to look like a moderate, dependable person should the worst happen to her boss in the next four years.

Mike Pence has one incredible gift for these debates.  He can can gaslight better than anyone in politics. At some point on Wednesday night, he will say "Of course the president does not believe "X" with an a mildly indignant tone. It will not matter, even if we have all seen vide of the president saying exactly "X" on multiple occasions.

Pence has two goals for this event. First, present a more mature face on Trumpism. It is possible that he will be the candidate by November 3rd and he will almost certainly be a candidate in four years. This is a chance to build up his brand. 

III.  The Forecasts.

I want to spend a little more time with these this week, because the movement has been significant. 

Biden's national lead is significant. He has clear and steady leads in enough states to win the election. He also had stable, though smaller leads in Florida and Arizona.  Ohio, Iowa and Texas all look to be competitive. But each forecaster has a slightly different take on where the race stands.

1. FiveThirtyEight. 

Nate Silver started this season late and with a conservative estimate of Biden's chances. He opened the forecast giving Biden 71% chance of victory. Since then, our weekly tracking had him at 73-70-72-76-77-78%. So the trend has been good for awhile. As of tonight, Nate gives Joe Biden an 81 percent chance of winning. 

Nate's model has a built-in hourglass. Trump is behind. As time and events pass, he loses opportunities to turn that around. Most significantly, Nate had Bide narrowly winning Ohio for most of this week. Right now, it is a true toss up: 49.5% to 49.5%. The leaves his score at 335 Biden, 185 Trump and 18 Toss-up.

2. The Economist.

This continues to be Biden's best forecast. Last week they had him at 85% and tonight they have moved him all the way to 90%. Their EV projection is officially 341 to 197, up from 332-206 last week..

The Economist is one of 2 forecasters who advertise a "mode" result but also publish their state by state probabilities. I prefer the latter method. There Biden remains at 334-204, with no changes from last week.

3. Sabato Crystal Ball

Prof. Sabato just projects the states as individual results, so I don't know what percentage he would assign to a Biden victory. But he currently has Biden winning 279 electoral votes and Trump just 179 with 80 tossups. 

Sabato moved both IA and OH from Leans-Trump to Toss-up. And he moved WI from toss-up to lean Biden.  He now forecasts that Biden will the Hillary states plus WI/MI/PA and NE-2nd.  

He considers FL, IA, OH, NC AZ and ME-2nd to all to be toss-ups. That gives Biden a lot of outs.

4. 270 to Win.

Similar methodology and temperament to Sabato. But he made those changes a week ago, so his ratings didn't move this week. He gives Biden a 278 to 169 lead with, 91 Toss-up votes. (OH, ME-2, NE-2, AZ, NC, GA and FL)

5. JHK Forecasts.

Biden did well here nationally this week, moving from 79.7% to 83.9%. But there were no flips in the individual races. He has Biden getting 335 votes to 203 for Trump. But he thinks Biden has a good shot at winning Georgia. (47%). 

This forecast is probably most similar to my own "hunch cast."

6. Plural Vote.

Plural Vote includes internet search data as a component of their forecast. If more people Google Donald Trump, then Trump's numbers go up. I assume they adjust for the fact that Trump is the incumbent but this week, a lot of people Googled to find out more about Trump's medical condition. That affected the model. They currently give Biden a 73.2% chance of winning, with 329 electoral votes as their most common outcome. (This is up slightly from last week when they gave Biden 70.7% and 322 EVs.)  

This forecast diverges the most between mode and aggregate mean result. If you award each state to the candidate who wins each contest most often, Biden is all the way up to 352 votes. (They project Biden to win GA about 56% of the time. That seems bullish to me.)

7. Betting Markets.

There was real movement here too. One week ago Biden had a 57.3% chance of winning the election according to the bettors on Predictit.com.  Tonight Biden has a 61.5% chance there.  This number bounces a little bit as Trumps health waxes and wanes but the movement is clearly in Biden's direction.

8. Yours Truly.

I think this week was a very bad one for the president. He is obviously ill but the whole week unfolded with a distinctly Keystone Cops feel. A number of close associates, including his wife and most of his debate preparation team have now tested positive, along with three friendly senators. His arrogance has been on full display on how he has treated the disease and even his own well-being. I don't really see how he can overcome this. 

I am moving Biden up from 86% to 91%.  Trump needs to change the trajectory of this course. To do that, he needs to recover quickly, to do well in the remaining debates and to hope that Biden has something bad happen to him.  We might look back on the first weekend of October and realize that this was where all of his bullshit caught up with him.  The polling data is encouraging. The narrative could not be worse for him. There are 29 days to go  and his campaign is in very bad shape. Almost as bad as the candidate himself is in.

IV. Taxonomy, Again.

Standard reminder of my taxonomy of states.  

A. It will seem close if he doesn't win Florida.  He probably only gets to 290 maximum without Florida.

B. It will seem comfortable if he wins NC and FL That probably gets him to 334 electoral votes. Getting over 350 will look like a nice win, especially if he can win a state like Georgia, which Obama never carried and which ought to be trending blue over time.

C. It will seem like a blowout if he adds Iowa and Ohio.  This means he recreated the 2008 coalition, with Georgia subbing in for Indiana.

D. The cherry on top would be Texas.  This probably only happens if Trump craters in some way, but the psychological value of flipping Texas will be enormous.

E. A true blow out is possible. If Trump does not recover physically and/or his behavior descends further into the realm of laughing stock, we have to look for some long shot states that might shock the world. I am partial to Montana, a state which has a track record of not liking incumbent presidents. I also think Alaska is in play during a true blowout. Beyond that, South Carolina is the only state I can even entertain as a possibility now. (Nate Silver gives Biden a 14% of winning, which is a bit better than the average National League pitcher getting a hit in any given at bat.)

A Lot Has Happened But Nothing Has Changed. (The Road to 270, Take 6)

The election is 10 weeks from today. It has been exactly 30 days since my last forecast. In those 30 days, the Joe Biden selected kamala Harris as his running mate and the Democrats held their modified mostly vitual convention from a small arena adjacent to a minor league baseball stadium in Wilmington, Delaware. Both Senator Harris and the convention have been well-received. The polls have been pretty steady. Biden's average in the "poll of polls" has been somewhere between seven and nine for most of the summer. At the moment it's about eight. The Republican convention started last night to decidenly mixed reviews. The early speakers were Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, who got mostly good reviews but the night ended with bizarre speeches by both Donald Trump Junior and his girlfriend, who appeared not to notice that she was addressing an empty room. For reasons unkown to this correspondent, they both finished their speeches several minutes faster than planned, leaving seven minutes of dead air time for the networks to fill with pundits desperately trying not to speculate about what caused that. The other item of interest to readers of this blog that happened since our last forecast is that Nate Silver finally published his forecast. The headline is that he gave Biden a 71% chance of winning, the exact same percentage that he gave Hillary of winning going into Election Day 2016. But I hvae to mention that the new website is an ugly, awful mess. The graphics are busy and stupid. It is difficult to get important information such as what polls have been added to the forecase recently. I'm still not sure why he took so long to publish, but we can safely rule out a desire to improve the viewing experience of his audience. I. My Forecast. I have not changes to announce. My previsou forecast had Biden at 334 and Trump at 204. I see no reason to change that. Last week I was wavering on putting North Carolina in Trump's column but we have seen gotten two polls that show Biden up by 4 and 3 points, respectively. That race will be close but Biden is the narrow favorite for now. II. Other Forecasts. Now that Nate Silver has joined the fray, I think we can make a chart to track where everyone stands.

With 70 days to go, there is something of a consensus-Biden is the favorite. He will probably win with a state or two to spare but things could get close. I am having a hard time seeing Trump make up all that ground though. The American people know him and they don't like him. The message of the Democratic convention was both straight-foward and true-the President is an asshole and maybe that shouldn't be so. The Republican convention seems to be a mixture of scaring people into thinking that their way of life is imperiled and that only Donald Trump can save them. That would have a lot more plausibility if we weren't still living in a pandemic as the rest of the world gets back to normal. Trump has a big enough base that he won't be blown out like McGovern or Mondale. He should even avoid Duakakis like numbers. I intend to update this blog every Tuesday between now and November 3rd. At some point, things will probably be close than they are right now. Maybe Biden will have a bad debate. Maybe the deaths from and new cases of COVID-19 will plummet enough to create a sense of relief. But it sure seems more likely that we'll thrash about with something like a 50 to 42 split for most of the coming months.

It's Biden. (16th and Final Look at the Democratic Horserace.)

I.  The Race Is Over.

Joe Biden's nomination has been inevitable for about a month. Now it is certain. Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign for president last week. Earlier today, he endorsed Joe Biden during a charming live stream where both men basically shit on Donald Trump.  There is an obvious camraderie between them that probably comes from Biden being nice to Bernie when he first became senator. Politicians need to be many things but charming is an underrated quality that Biden has an abudnance of.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the process but did not change the outcome.  So I will take one last look at the field, with an eye towards who helped and hurt their long term prospects.

I will go through each candidate and assign a grade for how they performed-the grade will factor in their performance this year and what it means for the grade going foward. I will go in order of votes received.

1.  Joe Biden-the Nominee.

 All vice-presidents start with universal name recognition and a fundraising base. But Biden is probably the only white candidate to ever enter the field with such strong popularity among black voters. His status as the loyal and popular vice-president of the first black president positioned him to dominate the African American base in a way that made the races before South Carolina slightly irrelevant.

It's possible that 2020 will be the last Democratic race of its kind. The party should abandon caucuses next time and I don't see how Iowa and New Hampshire can possibly maintain their divine right to be the first states to vote. But four (or eight) years is a long time and maybe people will forget about the clown show in Iowa but the racial demographics of the party demand that the early state lineup be changed.

      Biden did not raise a lot of money. He underwhelmed in the debates and he performed poorly in Iow and New Hampshire. But he bounced back to a respectable second in Nevada and then rolled to victory in South Carolina. He deserves credit for not panicking and for working the right levers to get the rest of the moderate candidates to coalesce behind him when there was only alternative.

     I think he's a slight favorite to win in November. He should win back Pennsylvania and Michigan. Then he needs one more state-Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida are his best options. A lot will happen in the next 209 days, so all we can do is hope for the best.

Final Grade: A He won.

2. Bernie Sanders-the Runner-up.

Biden's popularity with black voters made him the front-runner and inevitable nominee. Bernie's popularity with young people made him the equally inevitable runner-up. Bernie had 35% of the party with him from the start. When the field looked fractured, he obviously thought that he could cruise to the nomination with a health plurality of delegates. But then the field wasn't fractured and he had no ability to grow that 35% into anything close to 50%. In 2016, Bernie Sanders won the Michigan primary but about 2 points. In 2020 he lost it by 16 points. He didn't win a single county in the entire state.

Some of this reflects the fact that Joe Biden is more popular than Hillary Clinton, particularly among rural white voters. (This was on display most cruelly in Vermont, a state that Bernie won but with 51% of the vote instead of the 86% he got against Clinton for years earlier.)

Bernie Sanders did not have a plan B. That is inexcusable political malpractice. He so believed in his revolution that he just assumed his time had come and that Biden was too weak to beat him. He was the only Democratic candidate to skip an event in Selma, Alabama the Sunday before Super Tuesday.  Black voters noticed. He got crushed on Super Tuesday and his campaign was effectively over.

Bernie Sanders is 78 years old.  He might be tempted to run in 2024, either against Biden or in an open Democratic field.  I see no sign that he has stopped believing that his way is the future. And he seems incapable of grooming a successor or even acknowledging the need for one.  But he will never be president and he will never be the Democratic nominee. He did worse than he did four years ago because he was too stubborn to reach out to anyone who wasn't 100% behind his agenda.

He will be 83 years old the next time his seat is up.  I hope he faces a legitimate Democratic candidate in the next senate race. But he can probably keep that seat for as long as his heart keeps beating. The party will probably move to the left in the years ahead.  Next time the race will probably be more favorable to black and Latino candidates. The biggest question will be whether he turns his "movement" into something durable and distinct with a new leader or if the Millennials who have now supported him twice blend into the mainstream of the Democratic party.

Final Grade: C.  He got a lot of votes, but he blew a legitimate chance to be the nominee.

3.  Mike Bloomberg- the Spender.

Well, he got what he wanted-a moderate nominee. But he spent a ton of money to get something that he probably could have had for free.  He got nearly 3 million votes and 55 delegates. He even won the vaunted American Samoa primary. Bully for him.

Final Grade: C-.  He transferred a lot of money from his pocket to various television stations. And he was humiliated by Elizabeth Warren on national television.

4.  Elizabeth Warren- the Planner.

She worked for it. She worked for as a retail politician and she worked for it as a policy wonk. Hillary Clinton is the only woman to get more vote for president than her. She won 81 delegates and did quite well in the debates. But her biggest plan was to split the difference between Biden's institutional support and Biden's insurgent popularity. Turns out there were not enough votes there to win any contests. But I think she elevated her name and will probably be a high-profile senator for years to come.

Final grade: B.  She was harmed by people who were afraid to nominate another woman against Trump but she put up a good fight.

5. Pete Buttigieg- the Little Engine that Could.

As time passes, it becomes easier to see what a colossal joke it was for 37 year old mayor of South Bend, Indiana to run for president. But he maximized his effort by saying yes to everything, including appearances on Fox News and by mastering the art of fund raising in a way that had to catch the eye of the national party.

His next move will depend on the result in November. I think Joe Biden will want him in the administration, although I don't think he will get a really plumb job like State or Defense.  Maybe he could be UN Ambassador or CIA chief. If not, he should take a job in media. Work in Manhattan, but live in New Jersey.  He can run for Senator Menendez' seat in 2024.  Maybe by 2032 or 2036 he will have enough experience to make a credible run for president.

Final Grade: A-.   He won Iowa and he damn near won New Hampshire. That is crazy.

6. Amy Klobuchar- the Alternative.

Hard to believe it, but there was a moment where it looked like she might spring to the front of this pack. After Iowa ended in a debacle, she went to New Hampshire and had the best single debate night of any candidate in the field. That translated to a solid third place in New Hampshire and a thought that she might be the centrist alternative to Joe Biden.  But she never gained ANY traction with black voters and remained unable to even offer an explanation of why they should vote for her.  That spelled doom and she got crushed in South Carolina. It then seemed like she would stick around for Super Tuesday and hope for the hometown win in Minnesota.  But then she made a pretty gutsy choice-she dropped out, endorsed Joe Biden and turned her machine into a Get Out the Vote operation for Joe Biden. It was both selfless and mature.  Her presidential candidacy will be forgotten, but she might wind up being the Vice-President or Attorney General of the United States.

Final Grade:  B. She elevated her profile and might wind up with a plumb job. But the race also showed her limitations politically. Her best moment was losing graciously.

7. Tom Steyer - the Fantasy Camper.

He spent $200 million dollars on a midlife crisis. Maybe he will end up with some cable news appearances. There are cheaper ways to get those.

Final Grade: F.

8. Tulsi Gabbard:  the Enigma.
She was stubborn enough to stay in the race even while finishing behind perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente. And then she endorsed Joe Biden, so I guess she wasn't just running to spoil the race for Democrats?  She is a deeply weird person. I still have no idea what she was trying to accomplish.

Final Grade: D-.   She had a moment in the Joe Roganasphere but her performance as abysmal.

9. Andrew Yang: the Upward Failure.

Another deeply unserious person who ran to become a celebrity. Sadly, he succeeded at this to the extend he landed a talking head job on CNN.

Final Grade:  B-.  He knew when to quit and the CNN gig was about as good an outcome as he could have expected.

10. Michael Bennet;  the Tall.
Not a lot to show for this. He got the coveted James Carville endorsement, which got him some air time on his way to getting crushed in New Hampshire.

Final Crade: F.  He probably ran his way out of the Veep stakes, unless you think Biden was always going to pick a woman, in which case no harm done.

11. Julian Castro: the Soldier.

Julian was a mediocre candidate but I want to give him props for one thing-he was the only candidate to drop out before the voting began and then actively mobilize for another candidate.  He seems to be right in the heart of the party-to the left of Biden and to the right of Bernie. His work for Elizabeth Warren was commendable, if ultimateley ineffective. I don't know what his future holds. He could try to run for governor of Texas, but that feels like a reach. He also could get a job in the Biden administration, but I'm not sure whee he fits best.

Final Grade: B-.  He at least proved himself to be willing to carry water for somebody other than himself. That's an important trait in politics.

12. Corey Booker: the Non-Starter.

I was not a fan of Senator Booker at the start of this race and I never became an outright supporter. But he was good in the debates. He is the rare politician who can manage to be funny without being mean and to be self-effacing without seeming phony.  But he just never got a groove.  I think that being unmarried held him back. And I think Biden's popularity with African American voters denied him a core of fund raising opportunities that might have allowed him to run a more robust campaign early.

Final Grade:  C+.  I can't tell you where he went wrong, but he never got going. It seems unlikely that he will ever be the nominee, although a wife and kid or two might help.


13. Marianne Williamson: the Space Ghost.
There can be only one.
Final Grade: F.  Get the fuck out of here, Space Ghost.

14. Deval Patrick: the Regrets Avoider.

He probably could have made a credible run if he committed early but he waited until the last possible moment and then got crushed. The best news for him is that he joined so late that he never got in a debate and can probably hold out some hope that no one will remember he ever ran.

Final Grade: D. He might have been a Veep candidate if he never ran but could still wind up in the cabinet.

15. John Delaney: The Millioinaire With an M.
Sort of a mini-Bloomberg. He spent $14 million dollars and got humiliated by Warren in one debate, instead of two.
Final Grade: D. Each of his four kids has three and a half million reasons to be mad at Dad.

16. John Sestak: The Admiral.
Final Grade: F. He's an admiral, you know.

17. Kamala Harris: The Failed Plan.
Harris was a great candidate on paper and she got some traction after the first debate. But she did poorly after that and had the good sense to drop out before the voting started. (It should be noted that she is this low on the list because she actively removed herself from ballots in many states. Most candidates do not bother to do that. I think Klobuchar is the only other candidate to do that, although it was too late for her to do it in the Super Tuesday states.)

Harris' major strategic error was to base her campaign on a middle class tax cut that nobody was clamoring for. It forced her to be more modest in spending proposals and didn't really inspire anyone. Doing this poorly from the lofty heights of a California senate seat is inauspicious. But the good news is that she didn't seem to make any enemies along the way. She is on the short list for Vice-President. If she doesn't get that she will probably be in the cabinet. Or she can be a senator for as long as she wants.  Final Grade: C+.

18. Steve Bullock: The Future Senator.
He really didn't want to be a senator, but it looks like that is what fate has in store for him. He is in some ways the anti-Bernie. He would have been a very good general election candidate but he just wan't liberal enough to catch fire with the base.  He is a modest favorite to win the senate election and I think he has a bright future.  Final Grade: C.

19. Jay Inslee: The Competent.
His presidential campaign didn't do much for his reputation or future but his role in handling the first major breakout of COVID-19 sure is.  He may not be a good fit for any cabinet posts but if Trump is re-elected, he might be the 2024 front-runner.  The recent pattern in this country is to elect a president for two terms and then elect someone who is the opposite of that president. And if there is one thing Donald Trump ain't, it is competent.  Final Grade: C.

20. Beto O'Rourke.  The Face.
He may have expended some of his political magic on this race, but guys like Beto do not go away. He probably can't win a state wide race but Biden obviously likes him and that puts him in line for a good job. Hopefully he can avoid being stuck at HUD or Transportation. He should push for UN Ambassador or the Commerce Department.  Final Grade: D.


21. John Hickenlooper.  It's True. He Ran. Final Grade: D.

22. Kristin Gillibrand: The Forgotten.
She vanished in this campaign. Like Harris, she had a position that should have made it easy to raise funds. She also aggresively staked out anti-Trump bona fides with senate votes against all of his cabinet nominees. But she never got anywhere. I don't think she ever got a crooked number in a single poll.  That is staggering. She wasn't ready for this race and she probably doesn't quite fit in the party nationally.  Unlike Harris, she seemed to step on a few toes and there are resentments against her among the donor class.  (Some of these are unfairly rooted in her principled stand against Al Franken. Others seem more personal than substantive. But it feels permanent.)

She can become a solid if not spectacular back-bench senator or maybe run for the governor's mansion if we assume that Cuomo will decline to run for a 4th term.  Frankly, I'm not sure she would win that primary. Her low profile in 2020 suggests to me that she's not sure what to do next.  Final Grade: F.

The Other Failures.

23. Eric Swalwell.  Has been a good sport on social media. Maybe he can rebound, but it will take a while.
24. Tim Ryan. A nice enough guy.
25. Seth Moulton. Probably not cut out for national electoral politics but he has a lot to offer the country, in some capacity.
26. Wayne Messam.  He once raised $5 dollars for an entire quarter.
27. Bill de Blasio.  Might want to give him an F-. It's hard to finish behind a guy who raised $5 for a presidential campaign in an entire quarter. But this race was quixotic to begin with and since he ended, he bet on the wrong horse (Sanders) and failed to prepare his city for the COVI-19 pandemic.  He is thankfully term-limited as maory and he feels toxic at the moment.

II. A Quick Moment of Accountability.

One of my many peeves with punditry is that the professionals are never held accountable for their terrible projections and opinions.  What follows is just my attempt to grade my own handicapping. It's not a very lively subject, so feel free to skip.

I did my first look at the field on December 30th 2018. It took 501 days for there to be only one candidate left standing. Here is how I ranked them then, with their final finish in parenthesis. Shoutout to all eigh prospects who never ran.

1. Bernie Sanders (2)
2. Joe Biden  (1)
3. Kamala Harris  (17)
4. Elizabeth Warren (4)
5. Corey Booker (12)
6. Beto O'Rourke (20)
7. Amy Klobuchar (6)
8. Sherrod  Brown
9. Michael Bloomberg (3)
10. Krsitin Gillibrand  (27)
11. Eric Holder
12. Andrew Cuomo
13. Terry McCauliffe
14. Chris Murphy
15. Eric Garcetti
16. Mitch Landrieu
17. Steve Bullock (18)
18. John Hickenlooper (21)
19. Jay Inslee (19)  Nailed it!
20. Tim Ryan (24)
21. Howard Schultz
22. Tom Steyer (7)
23. Pete Buttiegieg. (5)
24. Some Dumb Celebrity (Let's give this slot to  Marianne Williamson)  (13)

When the race started I gave Bernie an 18% chance of being the nominee and Joe Biden a 14% chance. I think I understated both possibilities.  They were the front runners in their respective lanes. The only questions were would they run and would a younger candidate emerge to knock them off their respetive totems.

I knew that Bernie would run. I was less sure that Biden would. He hesitated a bit and did not start strong. But he found his groove and the party was waiting to receive him. 

There were three women who I thought might have moved up to the front of the pack. None of them caught fire, each for slightly different reasons. But I am willing to say that they all suffered from the democratic basse being skittish about nominating another woman to run against Trump. I am glad that Biden has committed to selecting a female running mate.  It simplifies the process. There are several good options and it will be at least some measure of progress.

As time passes and our lives become dominated by COVID-19 it really is remarkable that the 37 year old mayor of a college town put himself in the top tier. He won Iowa and damn near won New Hampshire. He did this by building a good oranization and an even better brand. He was the gay veteran who shared the values of the typical white moderate voter.  His campaign will be a case study on both the strengths and limitations of branding in politics. 

Meanwhile, three perfectly competent and popular sitting governors ran to nowhere. Jay Inslee, Steve Bullock and John Hickenlooper all crapped out before the first caucus. That should be a case study too.  Whatever party lose the 2020 election would do well to give a long hard look at governors in 2024. They will have a lot of crisis management on their resume and a lot less of the Washington media circus on their breath.

I can't exactly brag about my predictions. Bernie and Biden were the obvious front-runners. I thought that Bernie was popular enough with the larger party that his very enthusiastic base would make him tough to beat. But the party looked at the result in SC and decided they knew who needed to be the nominee.

I think Joe Biden is a good man. He has flaws, and they could cost him this election. But he has charm and style and people like him. There is only one opponent left for him to beat. And anyone who really opposes authoritarianism, should do whatever they can to help him do so.




III.  Monotous Details:

I had Bernie in first for the first four post.  Biden was second each time.  I moved Biden to first after he officially entered the race and moved Bernie to second.  For the eight post (October 2019), I moved Warren up to first followed by Biden, then Bernie. For the 9th, I moved Biden back to first, Warren down to second and kept Bernie 3rd. In January, I moved Bernie ahead of Warren and kept Biden in the lead.

In my 12th post, just after Iowa,  I put Bernie back in front, with Biden in 2nd and Buttigieg 3rd. After New Hampshire, I got really spooked. My 13th post had Bernie first and Buttigieg second. I also bought the Amy Klobuchar boomlet and placed her third. I had Biden down in sevent.

I was still a little skittish after South Carolina. My 14th post still had Bernie in front, but Biden was back up to second. Warren, Klobuchar and Bloomberg rounded out the top five. After Super Tuesday, I of course put Biden back in first and Bernie in 2nd.











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