Embrace the Uncertainty. (Democratic Horse Race Take 13)

Iowa and New Hampshire have Cauc-voted, and all we know for sure is that we don't know much.

I. New Hampshire Analysis.

My predictions were terrible but the polling averages were pretty accurate.  Let's compare:

1.  Bernie Sanders: Result 1st 25.9%.   Polling average 1st 28.7, Prediction 1st 28%.

Bernie did fine. He won and that's the most important thing. But his number was slightly lower than expected and as in Iowa, it does not seem that he brought out waves of young people to vote for him. The electorate is obviously focused on beating Trump and his electability argument is predicated on turning out young people to vote for him in unprecedented numbers. So far, we don't have evidence of that.

The optimistic take is that Bernie is the person most likely to wind up with a plurality of delegates. I am increasing skeptical that he will get through the process with a majority however.  Yesterday Nate Silver's model had him winding up with about 1,650 delegates. After NH the model has him winning 1,531. (1,990 are needed for a majority.)

2.  Pete Buttigieg.  Result: 2nd/24.4%  Polling average: 2nd/21.3%  Prediction:  3rd/16%.

Pete overperformed, slightly. His strategy officially paid off. By working IA and NH meticulously and accepting all free media invitations, he was able to get one gold and one silver. For the moment he has a negligible lead in delegates with 23. (Sanders has 21.)

Now he has to run nationally. He will get a lot of attention but I think voters will be concerned about his lack of experience. 

3. Amy Klobuchar  Result 3rd/19.8%  Polling average: 3rd/11.75  Prediction: 5th/11%.

No one can accuse me of being a homer. Klobuchar had a great night and will now get a lot of media attention. But she has to start running in places that have not paid much attention to her until very recently.   She had a fundraising windfall after the last debate and should have one today too. But she has to scale up in a hurry and I'm not sure what her campaign will focus on next.

She remains a huge long-shot. Nate Silver's model only has her winning 80 delegates. (Up from a project 57 before NH.)  That's two percent. She needs to start beating Pete and she has to worry that Bloomberg might get a lot of voters that otherwise would have voted for her.

I would advise her to keep pointing out the contrasts with Mayor Pete. She has the resume of a president. He does not.  But she also needs someone to go negative on Bernie. I don't think it's the right time to do that directly. But Biden and Warren might have to do that for their own interests.

4.  Elizabeth Warren  Result: 4th/9.3%.  Polling Average: 4th/11%  Prediction: 4th/14%.

It was not her night. Being from a neighboring state, she should have done better than 4th. But she can also claim with a straight face to have done as well as Klobuchar so far. (She in fact has 8 delegates, and Klobuchar 7.)  I think she is a pragmatist. Most years that would mean dropping out now. But this year looks like a fight for every delegate until Milwaukee. She will stay in until Super Tuesday, at least. Watch her fundraising. I think a lot of her donors might be drifting towards Amy Klobuchar today but I know Warren is a worker. She knows that she can still have a big say in who the nominee is and what the platform looks like.


5.  Joe Biden.  Result 5th/8.3%  Polling Average: 4th(tie)/11.0%. Prediction: 2nd/20%.
I thought NH would give Biden a comeback narrative. But his attack on Mayor Pete felt petty and he slid all the way down to 5th place. He skipped town before the voting was done.  But he does have an argument that will resonate with some-so far only white people have been voting. That can give him some hope but he's a wounded candidate and there will be a lot of money spent trying to deny him a win in South Carolina.  If he's going to be the nominee, he needs to have the best 18 days of his campaigning life.

I am starting to think that Trump's Ukraine/Hunter/Burisma fantasy hurt Biden. I don't think any Democrat believes this is a real scandal but there's probably some percentage who doesn't want to go through Hillary's emails again.  The unfortunate thing is that any candidate will have some version of that bullshit thrown at them by Trump and Fox News.  Biden's reputation is probably best suited to withstand it. But he got his ass kicked twice and I'm not sure how he turns that story around.

II.. The Horse Race.

The Top Tier (Front Runners)
1.  Bernie Sanders
2.  Pete Buttigieg (Up from 2)
3.  Michael Bloomberg (Up from 4)

Tier Two (The Alternatives)
4.  Amy Klobuchar (Up from 6)
5.  Elizabeth Warren

Tier Three: (The Wounded)
6. Joe Biden (Down from 2)

Tier Four: (Nothing Better to Do With the Lives)
7. Tom Steyer  He's already spent a fortune in NV and SC so he might as well stick around to see if he can get any return on it. I suspect not.
8.  Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 9)

III.  The Power Rankings, Take 12
These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Joe Biden (Up from 4)
3. Pete Buttigieg (Up from 5)
4. Elizabeth Warren (Up from 6)
5. Michael Bloomberg (Up from 7)
6. Bernie Sanders (Up from 8)
7. Tom Steyer (Up from 9)
8. Tulsi Gabbard (Up from 11)

Pour a little out for Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick. Bennet and Patrick would have been contenders for compromise candidates at a brokered convention. But I doubt that will happen now.

Andrew Yang will start a podcast and/or Multiple Level Marketing scheme any day now. His endorsement would be worth something, but I'm not sure who he would give it to. Without one, I suspect that the 3 percent of voters he got in NH will split pretty evenly, among Bernie and Pete.

The Democratic Horse Race, Take Nine

Pour out a little malt liquor for Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Tim Ryan, Joe Sestak, Wayne Messam and Steve Bullock. Unfortunately, we also have to say hello to Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick.

 last updated my rankings of the Democratic Field on October 22nd. The news since then has been dominated by the impending impeachment of President Trump. But a lot has happened in the primary field too. In those eight weeks six candidates have dropped out. Perhaps more incredibly, two joined the field.  So the field of 19 has dwindled slightly to fifteen.

I. POLLING DATA (Based on the Real Clear Politics Average)

In the polls, Joe Biden has maintained a steady and significant lead. Warren has slipped from 2nd place to 3rd, losing about 1/3 of her support in the RCP average. Bernie's support has been steady enough to pass Warren, despite a small dip in her nominaal support. 

Only one of the six recent dropouts has significant polling support. Kamala Harris was in 5th place two months ago with 5.3 percent. That's is nearly identical to the 5.4 percent that Michael Bloomberg now.

II. The Horse Race (Take Eight).

In my last update I moved Elizabeth Warren up to the top spot. I regret that. She was on a good run but once she tried to tack back towards the center by hedging on her commitment to Medicare for All, that bubble burst.  She seems to be caught between the progressive wing which still prefers Bernie and the larger more centrist block of the party.  (Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Booker and Klobuchar currently have about 42 percent support. Sanders and Warren about 34 percent.)

Without further ado, here are the updated rankings:

A. The Top Tier (The Front Runners).

1. Joe Biden (up from 2)

He has always been the favorite and I should have stayed with him all the way through. But age is a real vulnerability here, so I can't call him the prohibitive favorite just yet.

2. Elzabeth Warren (Down from 1)

She is popular but her shtick seems to have worn thin early. And there is no sign of Bernie relenting or his followers breaking with him. 

In my last post, only Bernie and Warren were listed in the top tier. But I think the next two candidates have shown enough consistency to deserve being included with them.

3. Bernie Sanders 

His base is large and committed.  He will not quit a minute sooner than he has to, especially if a moderate is in front of him.  

4. Pete Buttigieg

He needs to win Iowa. That is a real possibility. But if he does, he probably fades in NH and I don't see him doing much in SC or NV.

B.  Tier Two (The Alternatives).

5.  Amy Klobuchar (Up from 7)

Hear me out. She has seen an uptick in her polling and outlasted a couple early contenders (Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris).  She also seems generally acceptable to most wings of the party.  If she can pull off a strong finish in Iowa, she will have to be considered a top tier contender.  And if things go haywire, she might be the compromise candidate that everyone can live with. 

6.  Mike Bloomberg (Unranked)

There are three things to remember about Mike Bloomberg-he's rich, he's ambitious and he's obsessed with data.  He would not be spending the obscene amounts of money that he is spending if he didn't think he could get a practical return on the spending. That return could come in the form of the nomination but I think it is more likely that he wants to steer the conversation away from genuinely left-wing ideas like Medicare for all and towards more pragmatic concerns like reducing carbon emissions and restoring American's alliances. 

I wish him well....to a point.  If I could wave a magic want and make him the president, the country would be in good hands. But he has singular political downsides ind the general election.  (He is Jewish. He is unmarried. He is synonmous with government overreach in both the nanny state and the police state realms.)  But I also believe that he will spend his money wisely and absorb delegates beyond what his vote percentage would rate.  If he has a few hundred delegates, then he might be able to push the nomination to someone like Klobuchar or Biden as needed.

Tier Three (Long Shots)

7.  Cory Booker (Down from 6)

 Not making the debate stage hurts. He also failed to make the Vermont ballot, which suggests that he is having to conserve his resources.  (Vermont doesn't have many delegates and Bernie will probably win most of them no matter what.)

8. Michael Bennet  (Up from 10)

He may have hurt his chances for becoming president by running.  He is exactly the kind of moderate, mains stream purple-state candidate that someone like Bloomberg might have pushed for. But getting crushed in New Hampshire will make him look unpopular.

9.  Julian Castro.  His polling is dreadful.  But he seems t0o stubborn to drop out. A for effort, I guess.

10. John Delanay.  (Up from 12)

Yep. He's still running. He also failed to make the VT ballot, which is inexcusable given the fact that he has a lot of money to spend and running for president has been his full-time job for over 2 years. 

11. Deval Patrick.  (Unranked)

I figure he thought that if he didn't at least try to run, he would always wonder "what if?"  Well it looks like he spared himself that one.

Tier Four Novelty Candidates.

12. Andrew Yang (13)

13. Tom Steyer (15))  Now the 2nd richest billionaire in the race.

14. Tulsi Gabbard

15. Marianne Williamson (17)

III. The Power Rankings, Take Nine.

These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.

1.  Amy Klobuchar
2.   Michael Bennet (Up from 4)  
3.  Pete Buttigieg 

4. Joe Biden (Up from 9)
5.  Elizabeth Warren (Down from 4)
6.  Julian Castro (Up from 8)
7. Cory Booker (Up from 10)
8. John Delaney (Down from 11)
9. Bernie Sanders (Up from 14)
10. Tom Steyer (Up from 17
11.  Deval Patrick (Unranked)

12.  Michael Bloomberg (Unranked) 

13 Andrew Yang  (Up from 16)

14.   Marianne Williamson (Up from 18)
15.   Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 19)