The President is an ignorant, racist, deadbeat. These traits were on full display last night. He did absolutely nothing to persuade anyone that he has matured in office or that he is capable of being civil.
Vice-President Biden was slightly overwhelmed by the reality of sharing a stage with such a rude, vituperative person for the first 15 or 20 minutes. He didn't have a great night, but he spoke cogently and avoided any terrible gaffes or unforced errors that will sting.
Biden went in with a substantial lead and he came out of it with what is likely to be a slightly larger lead in the days ahead. The instant polls indicate that he won the debate and even some of Trump's media talking heads, like Rick Santorum and Chris Christie, acknowledged that Trump hurt his own cause.
Presidential debates are usually remembered for moment and I think there are three that will be the focus of conversation this week.
1. Donald Trump refused to renounce white supremacists. He started to, but either got distracted or lost his nerve, and wound up giving a rallying cry to an obnoxious gang of racist louts. So far today his team is trying to spin this, but he has not rushed out to clarify or change the impression he made.
2. Joe Biden invoked the military service of his deceased son Beau. The President responded by taunting him with comments about the substance abuse issues of Biden's surviving son. Imagine responding to someone bragging about his dead son who won the Bronze Star by bringing up the fact that that person's other son had a drug problem. It is unfathomable.
3. Biden called the President of the United States a clown. He also told him "Shut up, man." These moments struck me as appropriate responses to Trump's rudeness, but I don't doubt that there are some voters who were turned off by that. Of course, people who care about decorum are unlikely to be voting for Trump, unless they are full of shit about why they are voting for that clown.
Oh and Chris Wallace is catching hell for losing control of the ship last night. He did start poorly but I think he reacted well, under the circumstances. He wasn't great, but I don't think anyone else would have done much better.
II. A Little Bit of News.
It was easy to miss but there were at least 2 news worthy items in the ether of last night's circus.
First, President Donald Trump appeared to suggest that he is open to having the vote on Judge Coney-Barrett's nomination after the election. He said there was "plenty of time" to do it after the election. I think that means the Republicans have read the polling on this point and are having some doubts about the wisdom of cramming this through. (I still think they will, but it was an interesting comment. I also think they will hold the vote no matter what the outcome of the election is.)
Secondly, Biden seemed to say that the Private Option of his healthcare plan would only be available to people eligible for Medicaid. I hope that reporters ask him to clarify that, but the news will probably focus on other things for the next few days.
III. Early Signs of Movement.
I don't put a lot of stock in instant polls. The one done by CBS had Biden winning 48 percent to 41 percent. That mirrors almost perfectly the pre-debate polling average. The CNN poll had Biden winning 60 percent to 28 percent. But only 25% of respondents were Republican, so that's probably a bad sample.
But there is one data point that has to encourage the Biden campaign this morning. The betting markets have moved, noticeably toward Biden over night. On Predictit.com, both North Carolina and Florida have flipped from Trump to Biden. (By small margins, it must be said.) States like Ohio and Georgia have also moved toward the Democrats. Biden's chances of winning the election have gone up by about a nickel.
IV. What Happens Next.
One of the most striking impressions last night was that Donald Trump knows that he is losing this race. I assumed that he knew that but it was really evident during the portion of the debate on election security. Trump needs to change minds. Last night was his best chance to do so, but he could not help himself. He is a rude, obnoxious jerk. That works very well with 40% of the country. That's not enough to win.
The next event is the Vice-Presidential debate. This is usually a snooze fest and I think this year will not be an exception to that. Kamala Harris had some good moments in the early primary debates but she is less deft at counter-punching.
Mike Pence did well against Tim Kaine and I think he will hold his own against Senator Harris. The secret to his success is that he is the ability to lie with great confidence. If he gets asked to defend something absurd that Donald Trump believes, he will just start with "Of course the President does not believe that. The President is an honest, decent man.....etc, etc." The lies do not stop.
The contrast from last night will be telling. Pence might be able to make some coherent arguments that will make some voters say, "See, they're not so bad if you ignore the crazy pants way the Boss talks." But I don't think the needle will move much after a Veep debate.
The next presidential debate is a town hall forum. I think both candidates will do better in that setting. Biden is a natural retail politician and he will look more comfortable addressing regular voters than President Trump. But I also think Trump will benefit from the change in format. Trump knows he can be rude to Biden. His people expect it. He also knows he can be rude to the moderator. That's all in the game. But he has to hold back a little bit when regular old voters ask him a question. I wish the voters had a chance to ask follow-ups in this forum. That tripped up Trump in his last ABC town hall. But they usually do not allow such questions at the Town Hall debate, so we may not get to see how he does when someone tries to hold him to answering the question.
Fun fact-the next debate will be moderated by Steve Scully, the incredibly patient and poker-faced C-SPAN host who has to listen to all those crazy morning callers. Good practice for listening to Trump's tantrums.
As I write this, the President has just appeared on the White House lawn to try to undo the damage of his Proud Boys answer last night. His words were less than convincing but the important thing is that he seems to understand that he had a bad night and had to try to put this fire out.
He will probably be more sedate at the next debate. It would be hard not to. But by the third debate his polling situation might be so dire that he comes completely unhinged.
I write one day early tonight, because tomorrow is the first debate between President Trump and I will of course be watching that tomorrow night.
Stop me if you've heard this before, but we have just had another week of stable polling. Joe Biden leads the RCP average by 6.8 points, up slightly from last week and back to the exact mark he had two weeks ago. Biden leads the 538.com average by 6.9 points, the same margin as last week.
State level polling has mostly been stable too, although Biden got a great Pennsylvania poll tonight that showed him up nine. He's also had some good Ohio numbers, which make that state a true toss up with five weeks to go.
II. Debate Prep.
The first general election debate usually goes poorly for the incumbent. After four years of being the most important man in the world, it can be a bit unnerving to have to treat someone like an equal for 90 minutes. Even Ronald Reagan lost his first debate with Mondale, not that it mattered in the end.
The importance of debates tend to be over-stated. Nearly everyone has an opinion of Donald Trump and it is unlikely to change tomorrow night. But I think Joe Biden has at least some hope of picking up some voters who may have yet to commit to voting for him. The incumbent and no small portion of the media have fed the idea that he is too old and more than a little soft in the head. He also had some bad performances in the early debates with a crowded state taking aim at him as the front-runner. Biden can dispel a lot of those thoughts with a strong performance.
The most encouraging sign for Biden is how well he did in the only one on one debate with Bernie Sanders back in March. He was sharp and focused, and a little bit ebullient because he knew he was likely to be the nominee. I hope he projects a similar confidence tomorrow in Cleveland.
The first debate is going to be moderated by Chris Wallace. He is an interesting choice. The Trump people obviously assume he spends his days working in the Fox News Bubble and he has to placate that audience. I'm a little surprised that Biden didn't fight for a non Fox host but he obviously felt okay about it. (Wallace has given Trump some difficult questions when interviewing him.)
Wallace announced the six debate topics early this week. Some of them are obvious but see if you can spot the Fox influence on a couple of these:
1. The Trump and Biden Records. This is very vague. I guess Wallace is going to let the candidates attack each other right off the bat. That is understandable and will make for compelling television.
2. The Supreme Court. Here is where Trump is going to set the chutzpah record when he tried to paint Joe Biden as anti-Catholic zealot. The thing to watch for is Biden's line of attack. He should focus on the fact that Trump is trying to overturn the Affordable Care Act and he intends to use Coney-Barrett to do just that.
3. COVID-19. Trump will lie to you during this segment. Joe Biden will not.
4. The Economy. Trump will lie about how great the economy was before COVID. Biden will argue that he inherited a strong economy from his predecessors. I doubt many minds will be changed here, but I do hope Biden pins the recession on Trump.
5. Race And Violence in Our Cities. Okay-there's the Fox whistle. Trump will blame Biden for the riots, Biden will blame Trump for his lawlessness. If the candidates feel listless at the start of this segment, they will get over that quick.
6. The Integrity of the Election. One guy will scare you, the other guy will tell you to vote. Vote for that one.
But there's more....................
Yesterday the New York Times published in excruciating detail the fact that Donald Trump is a dead beat citizen. This news came out after the debate subjects had been set, but I'm sure Biden will hammer on them in every segment if he can. Trump will mumble something about fake news every time it gets mentioned.
If you're reading this blog, and God love you for doing so, you already know the details, so I won't bore you. But one fact is really hanging with me. Donald Trump chose to pay $750 in 2016 and 2017. He could have paid zero dollars, but he was obviously told that it would look bad. So they talked him into making a nominal payment. How they arrived at $750 is between him and his accountant. But it's kind of amazing to think that he could have saved himself a LOT of trouble by stroking a check for something like $26,000 or any amount that is substantially more than what the average tax payer pays in federal income taxes. A penny saved is a penny earned, I guess.
I also think this a lot more will come from this reporting. The first report was thorough and detailed but there are a lot of layers to the tax code and there will be a lot of eyes following the information as it comes out over the next week or two.
The most damning parts are that he apparently paid obscene amounts of his money to Ivanka and characterized them as "consulting fees" to save a few bucks on payroll taxes. The other is that he apparently took a $79 million tax credit under the 2009 economic recovery act. (Thanks Obama!)
But for now-the most memorable fact is this: the President of the United States paid $750 a year for his two tax returns that he filed from the White House. Fuck that guy.
III. The Forecasts.
Time is on Joe Biden's side. Every week that he maintains his lead, his chances of winning go up. There is still time for things to change, but it may take something dramatic for Trump to catch up and make this race competitive down the stretch. (I will not point out that by this time tomorrow we will know for sure whether Wiki Leaks has any dirt on Joe Biden. So far, so good on that front.)
That said, there wasn't a lot of movement this week. The Economist remains most bullish on Biden's chance of winning, but 538 is closing that gap. In fact, 538 now projects Biden to win Ohio 51% of the time, so they technically forecast him to win by a bigger margin than the Economist. But Nate Silver and the Economist's nerd continue to snip at each other on Twitter, which is kind of sad.
As for me, I'm moving Biden up from 84% to 86%. I think the Trump tax story will sting. No one likes to be a sucker and now the world knows, definitively, that that is how Trump feels about the average American tax payer. At the risk of repeating myself, fuck that guy.
IV. Taxonomy, Again.
For the past week I have been focusing on Ohio. My theory is that as long as Ohio is close, than Biden probably wins. Trump needs Ohio, Biden does not. In 2016, Trump swung that state eleven points to the right, from a three point Obama win to an eight point Hillary Clinton loss.
Ohio has a lot of the voters that swung from Obama to Trump and a lot of Obama voters who stayed home last time. All week I kept an eye on Nate's projected finish for Ohio and watched Biden's numbers climb from down to two to up by a fraction of a point. (Currently just 0.2%, so I'll be watching it for another week, at least.)
A reminder of my taxonomy of states. Nothing here has changed from last week:
A. It will seem close if he doesn't win Florida. He probably only gets to 290 maximum without Florida.
B. It will seem comfortable if he wins NC and FL That probably gets him to 334 electoral votes. Getting over 350 will look like a nice win, especially if he can win a state like Georgia, which Obama never carried and which ought to be trending blue over time.
C. It will seem like a blowout if he adds Iowa and Ohio. This means he recreated the 2008 coalition, with GA subbing in for Indiana.
D. The cherry on top would be Texas. This probably only happens if Trump craters in some way, but the psychological value of flipping Texas will be enormous.
In my previous post on the GOP field I created a new taxonomy for the candidates. This taxonomy included four categories: Outsiders, Serious, Niche and Charity. My thesis was that the traditional "tiers" model could not accurately capture the dynamics of the 2016 GOP primary. The Outsider candidates (Trump, Carson and Fiorina) were dominating the polling but nearly everyone still believe the nominee would be a more conventional candidate. Two weeks and one debate later, the polling number of the Outsider candidates remain strong but I'm still skeptical of their chance to be nominated.
At the start of this process I thought there were three candidates (Walker, Rubio and Bush) who had roughly equal chances at being the nominee. Since then Walker has dropped out and Bush has imploded. I now believe that Marco Rubio is a better than even money bet to win the nomination. The bookmakers at Paddy Power agree that he's the heavy favorite but not by as much as I do. (The have him as a 2.37 to 1 shot, which translates into a 30% chance of being the nominee. I have him at 52%.)
Before I write about my updated handicap, I want to look at the recent polls for this nomination process. In the earlier post, I added up the Real Clear politics averages of the candidates in each of my categories. There has been almost no movement among these groups in this time. The Outsiders are a majority, the Serious Candidates are fighting over 1/4 of the voters and the rest of the field is right around 10 percent. Whoever gets the nomination will get them by convincing undecided voters or persuading votes away from the Outsider candidates.
Category
Oct. 18
Nov. 1st
Outsiders
54.3
54.8
Serious
26
25.4
Niche
10
8
Charity
1.1
1.6
II. Individual Candidates
Two big themes emerged in the post-debate coverage. The first was that Marco Rubio crushed Jeb Bush in a head to head confrontation over his voting record. The second was that the candidates complained about the toughness of the questions. The questions were pretty tough, but no more than than during the first two debates on Fox News and CNN. What was different this time was that the moderators did a terrible job of controlling the candidates. We saw a lot of interruptions and cross-talk, which of course is how CNBC sounds during most of its broadcast day. It made for bad television and gave the GOP an excuse to whine about the event. I think this whining may bounce back on them as they came out of the hulabaloo looking like a bunch of men who promise to thrash ISIS but are incapable of withstanding CNBC.
We also saw another predictable theme with regards to the front-runner. After each of the first three Republican debates, the punditry has been quick to declare a setback for Donald Trump. After the first two, his numbers slipped slightly for about a week and then rebounded. I expect that pattern to repeat this time. But I think Trump did fine. The moderators for this debate, unlike their predecessors at other networks, didn't give him an excessive amount of questions and he faded into the background a little. But he didn't need to dominate the conversation. He just needed to be himself. And he was, especially during a rousing final speech about how he saved us all from the event being 30 minutes longer than it was. (If future generations are reading this blog post on a recovered Internet cache, just trust me on this. The front runner got rousing applause by bragging about keeping the event short.)
But they were right about Jeb Bush. He got crushed. I have come to the conclusion that he is a lousy candidate and that people just don't like him. The conventional wisdom at the start of this process was that Jeb would have to work hard to overcome the stigma of his name. I didn't really buy that because the Republican base never really blamed Bush for all the horrific things his presidency led to. I thought Jeb could bill himself as the smarter, wonkier version of his older brother. But he's not even getting that chance. People don't like him, which probably explains why he lost his first crack at becoming Governor of Florida. He still has a lot of institutional support, so I'm not completely writing him off. But it is hard to imagine the narrative he would corral to get back into this race. When John McCain was faltering in the polls we all knew he had an extremely remarkable biography to fall back on. Jeb's biography is remarkable but not for reasons that could ever make him credible as a plucky outsider. He is no maverick and he probably needs to get used to living with the fact that his idiot brother achieved a pinnacle that he will never reach.
In my original forecast, I gave Bush, Rubio and Walker a combined 89% of being the nominee. I know have Rubio at 52, Bush at 3 and Walker has left the race. I gave Trump a 2% chance and Carson and Fiorina none at all. Today I have them with a combined 31% chance. So they have gained nearly all of the probability lost by my three original front-runners.
The only other significant movement has been the emergence of Ted Cruz. Given just 1% in my first forecast, I now have him at a solid 12%. He has played the game well. His fund raising is strong and he has positioned himself to pick up a lot of Trump/Carson voters should one or both of them implode sometime between now and Super Tuesday.
Here's the Updated Forecast:
Candidate
Pre 1st debate
Post 1st Debate
Pre 2nd Debate
Pre 3rd Debate
Post 3rd Debate
Change
Trump
2
1
8
12
18
6
Bush
34
31
24
17
3
-14
Walker
32
29
22
--
--
--
Rubio
23
28
26
46
53
7
Huckabee
3
3
1
1
1
0
Santorum
1
1
1
1
1
0
Paul
2
1
1
0
0
0
Cruz
1
1
2
10
12
2
Kasich
1
2
6
3
2
-1
Carson
0
0
3
5
7
2
Christie
0
0
0
0
0
0
Jindal
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fiorina
0
2
3
2
1
-1
Graham
0
0
0
0
0
0
Perry
0
0
--
--
--
Pataki
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gilmore
0
0
0
0
0
0
The Field
1
1
3
3
2
-1
III. Process and Very Premature Delgate Math
The first delegates will be determined four months from tonight in Iowa. The field has been pretty stable up until now but I'm sure we will see a flurry of changes as that date draws near. Some of the minor players might drop out, although it's hard to say who. Christie and Paul should throw the towel in but they both seem too stubborn to do so. I think Paul finds value in espousing his vaguely libertarian ideals in these forums. All of the field seems to enjoy the attention. Even absurd long shots like Jindal and Pataki have access to national microphones that will be gone forever once they drop out.
Jeb is too well-heeled and connected to drop out soon. He probably believes that he can weather this storm and that most people will eventually come to their senses on Trump and Carson. But he also seems weary of the process. He might drop out before Iowa, but only if he thinks the nomination is going to be won by someone he respects. I think that's a short list. Kasich for sure and presumably Rubio too. The most likely outcome is that he hangs around through the early states and hopes to swoop up some delegates on Super Tuesday.
Individual Contests.
1. IOWA: MOST LIKELY WINNER; BEN CARSON.
Iowa seems likely to be won by either Trump or Carson. I think Carson might benefit from the same dynamic that helped Obama in 2008. Iowans are nice people and I know that Iowa takes some pride in the role it played in electing the first black president. I think that pride has rubbed off on the Republicans there and unless Carson says something disqualifying or the competition succeeds in portraying him as a fraudster for selling snake oil supplelments and then lying about it, he will be in a strong position there.
Rubio and Cruz should battle for third place but this contest has previously been won by two of our long shot candidates-Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee. I think some odd ball like that will get a surprising third place or a very strong 4th. That person will be able to survive New Hampshire.
2. NEW HAMPSHIRE MOST LIKELY WINNER; DONALD TRUMP:
Trump is dominating the polls here. NH has a long history of shunning the Iowa winner so it might be in Trump's best interest to lose close in IA, then sweep up in NH. In fact, that seems likely. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Christie will all be vying or 2nd place. If Kasich doesn't get that, he'll probably drop out and wait for his phone to ring in July. If Christie finishes lower than 4th, he will probably drop out too.
3. SOUTH CAROLINA: MOST LIKELY WINNER: DONALD TRUMP
South Carolina votes on February 20th, Nevada on February 23rd. I think the field will split after NH with most candidates focusing on one of these states and ignoring the others. Rubio and Cruz will try for NV, Trump, Carson and Bush for SC. The hangers on will each take a shot somewhere but they won't have much chance of medaling in either place.
The most interesting scenario is if Trump manages to wins South Carolina. His outer boro obnoxiosness should not play in the south, but I think it will play to this crowd. He is currently leading the polls there by 13 points and I think he will win there next February. That will begin to push Carson to the margins.
4. NEVADA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Nevada could be won by Rubio, Cruz or Trump. If Carson has pulled the upset in SC, then this race could pull him back into the lead ahead of Super Tuesday. There has only been one published poll of this race in he last 90 days. Trump led comfortably but I suspect some of the lower-tier candidates will try to ramp up a presence there in December and January.
DISCLAIMER: The picture beyond these early states is very murky. I'm going to go through the rest of the states in order to create a record of my predictions, but the truth is, if Kasich or Bush pulls an upset in NH, the rest of my predictions will look foolish. The underlying premise of everything else is that Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz all come out of the first 4 contests with at least some delegate and one or more strong performances in an early state.
5. SUPER TUESDAY: 12 States Voting on March 1st, 2016.
Twelve states vote on March 1st. The states are from all over the map but more than 2/3 of the available delegates come from Southern states. (And that's with counting Oklahoma as a Midwestern state, although its politics are a lot more like the former Confederate states than the great plains.)
Southern: 408 delegates from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia
Western: 57 delegates from Alaska, Wyoming
Northeastern: 58 delegates from Massachusetts, Vermont
Midwestern: 81 delegates from Minnesota, Oklahoma,
By this point, Trump will either have burned out, dropped out in a fit of pique or gained national credibility. I suspect the latter is most likely but Cruz and Rubio will be well-positioned to get a lot of delegates in the Southern and Western States.
I suspect after these contests that Rubio, Trump and Cruz will all have enough delegates to seem like plausible candidates. Carson also could be viable then. Bush, Kasich and Fiorina will have needed one or two big upsets to still be around. Santorum, Huckabee and Jindal will be playing out the string but why not hang around for 4 more days
6. MARCH 5th: Old Home Saturday. Caucuses in Maine, Kansas and Kentucky. Primary in LA.
By now we will be playing for pride. Every contest before March 15th must award its delegates proportionally. Jindal and Paul will be hoping for home state wins to corral some delegates. That will be the last we hear from them. And it's hard to imagine Maine and Kansas resolving much.
7. MARCH 8th; The Last Proportional States; Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi.
Cruz could win Idaho and Mississippi, Trump should win Michigan and Rubio will probably compete in all Four States.
8. MARCH 15th: The Field Will Thin.
With apologies to Puerto Rico (March 13th), the nomination very well may be decided on the first day of Winner Takes All Contests. Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Florida and North Carolina all go to the polls. If Rubio holds home court in Florida, those 99 delegates will probably get him at or near the lead in the delegate count. Trump will need to win Ohio and Illinois, Cruz will be banking on wins in NC and MO. If Rubio wins any of those other states, he will have the delegate lead.
If Kasich has hung on to this point, he could throw the math off by winning Ohio's 66 delegates. But this seems increasingly unlikely. He may stay in the race at that point only if he thinks he can keep Trump from getting those delegates.
I know I've been discounting Carson through all of these predictions. I guess I just don't see him having the wherewithal for a long political fight. I know Cruz and Rubio have that. Unless one of them is shut out on March 15th, they will soldier on to the next contests. Trump will probably be neck and neck with Rubio for the most delegates, and ready to go scorched earth on the young Senators.
9. The Rest of the Races:
March 22nd: I think Rubio will win UT because he is far and away the most polite candidate of the three left standing. Arizona could be a sprawling three way race.
April 5th: Wisconsin. This will be 2 weeks where Scott Walker wishes he didn't give up so easily. 42 delegates to either Trump or Rubio
April 19th: New York. If Trump is still running, he wins. If not, it's Rubio's. Cruz could be on life support after this race.
April 26th: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. So THIS is where the establishment has stashed the sane states. That's 172 delegates and I think Rubio does well in all of those states. Cruz will probably have to concentrate in MD and PA. If he wins those 2, then the race is still too close to call.
The Delagate Math So Far:
I don't know the exact mechanics for distributing delegates int he proportional states. But I just tried some very crude back of the envelop math on how the delegate counts will look after April 26th. What I have is a very competitive three way race. Here's the very inaccurate projection:
Trump 694
Rubio 534
Cruz 520
Carson 58
Paul 21
Jindal 15
Bush 3
Huckabee 2
Santorum 1
I have Kasich at 0 but that is likely to be off by a lot if he does better than expected in the early states and is able to win all 66 delegates by squeaking out a win in his home state of Ohio. He may have an incentive to stay in if the math is this close, because those 66 delegates might be the difference between getting the needed majority and not. And the VP Slot is not too much to ask in that scenario.
10. What the Heck: Why Stop Being Wrong Now?.
I was going to write some boring paragraph about the rest of the races being too early to call but let's face it, this blog is just for fun and almost certain to be wrong. So no half-measures tonight. Here's how the rest of the races will go, with the winner's haul of delegates in parenthesis.
May 3rd
Indiana Rubio (57)
May 10th: This could be Cruz' last stand. He will need a win that day but I don't think he'll get one.)
Nebraska Turmp (36)
West Virginia Trump (34)
May 17th Oregon Rubio (28)
June 7th Each of the 3 candidates could get a win here but only 2 of them can win more than one race. If Trump and Rubio both go all in for California, Cruz would be wise to concentrate on the other states and hope to finish the day in 2nd place. More likely they will all fight for CA and Rubio will win.
California Rubio (172)
Montana Cruz (27)
New Jersey Trump (52)
New Mexico Rubio (24)
South Dakota Trump (29)
June 14th:
District of Columbia Rubio (19)
The Dates to be Determined.
Obviously the timing and spread of these contests will affect who wins where. But I'm assuming none of these will go before March 16th and I'm taking my best guess at who will win.
North Dakota Cruz (28)
Colorado Rubio (37)
Washington Rubio (44)
America Samoa Rubio (9)
Guam: Cruz (9)
N. Marianas Trump (9)
Virgin Islands Trump (9)
10. Final Delegate Math (A Political Nerd's Dream Come True)
Rubio: 933 37.8%
Trump: 853 34.5%
Cruz: 584 23.6%
Others: 100 4.1%
A brokered convention is too good to be true. If the math begins to shape up this way the party would put enormous pressure on Cruz to drop out and let Rubio vanquish Trump mano e mano. But Cruz has big ambitions and he won't come cheap. He also probably prefers Trump to Rubio if only because he's more likely to inherit Trumps supporters in 2020 should he not stick Trump in the back. So next July in Cleveland might be the first brokered convention of my lifetime, but I know there are powerful forces dedicated to preventing that. I'll try to update my Math as we get past the early states and have real voting data to work with.
IV. FINAL THOUGHTS
We could get through the four February contests with eight candidates who still believe they can be the nominee. The early states are not important because of the delegates they allocate. They are important because the media ignores and the donors stop supporting the candidates who do poorly there. This year's Republican field is twice the size of a typical nominating process which means that the votes will be distributed across many more candidates than usual. In 2012 John Huntsman dropped out after only getting 17 percent in New Hampshire. Any candidate other than Trump would be delighted with that number this time around. I can foresee five or even six candidates vying for double digits there, and a couple other candidates might do well in Iowa and/or South Carolina. Even little Bobby Jindal has reason for optimism this week after an Iowa poll put him at a whopping six percent.
Iowa's most likely outcome is Carson first, Trump second and Cruz third. If Huckabee and Jindal break double digits there, they will soldier on to South Carolina. Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz will all set their sites on winning new Hampshire. Kasich, Bush Christie and Paul will all be hoping to edge out the others to finish a strong fifth. That's ten candidates who will choose between SC and NV to get one more respectable finish. Lindsay Graham will have to choose between accepting reality or hoping to play spoiler with a 4th place finish in his home state.
Then it will come down to personality. I can see Kasich getting discouraged, maybe Huckabee and Christie too. Bush might succumb to reality if he hasn't yet medaled. Pataki and Santorum (barring another Iowa miracle for him) will pack it up. But the other seven will probably move on to Super Tuesday if only for lack of something better to do. And only when the race moves to winner take all contests will we know who the real contenders are. Trump, Rubio and Cruz will almost certainly still be standing. Carson could be out by then, but he also could be the front-runner. Bush, and Crhistie will probably be gone by then. Paul, Jindal and Kasich might be tempted to try to steal their home state contests to influence the process in the summer. Or they might clear the field to prevent the Trumptacolypse.
