This should be the last debate with 20 candidates. It is an unwieldy way to run an election and it is wasteful of air time.
It's hard to grade performances across two nights, especially when half of the candidates are not serious. So I'm going to rank the 20 candidates from most to least likely to be elected president next year. I will give each of them two grades-one for how they performed tactically-that is whether or not they advanced their cause in the short term. And then a separate grade for how they performed strategically-that is did they enhance their actual chances of becoming president (or enhancing their long term political prospects.) At some point, I will stop giving strategic great because half of these people are running to boost their speaker fees and maybe land a TV gig.
1. Biden Tactical A-, Strategic, B+
Biden drew a lot of heat, just as he did last time. But this time he was prepared. He wasn't in full command of the facts, but he withstood a lot of heat. He is past his prime. But he's probably got enough left in the tank to win this race.
2. Harris Tactical: B-, Strategic: B.
Harris obviously listened to all the good press she got after attacking Biden in the first debate. Tonight she seemed unprepared to receive the same kind of fire from everyone else on the stage. She was the star of the fist debate, she was middling tonight.
That said, I'm bullish on her candidacy. I think she made a big mistake by committing to a huge tax cut as the centerpiece of her campaign, but her health plan is pretty solid and she doesn't alienate independents with her talking points.
3. Warren Tactical B+, Strategic: C.
She landed a lot of good blows on Delaney and some other irrelevancies. That won her the night, but she also expressed some really dumb ideas. That will catch up to her if she's the nominee.
4. Sanders Tactical: B, Strategic: C
His talking points are so vapid that I can't believe people still want him to be president. That's my analysis.
5. Buttigieg Tactical: A, Strategic: A-.
He is good in this format. He's calm and clever and very reassuring. I still think he's a long shot but I think he has elevated his long term prospects more than anyone in the field. If a Democrat wins, he will get an important job.
6. Inselee Tactical: A-, Strategic: A.
He's got an issue that resonates with the base and a demeanor that scores well with moderates. He's a long shot, I won't count him out now.
7. Klobuchar Tactical: B, Strategic: B+
She remains my preferred candidate but there is no getting around the fact that she is boring in this format. Her message should be resonating more-she really is the strongest candidate to beat Trump but it seems unlikely that she will get that chance. I really hope she gets the remaining donors needed to participate in the 3rd debates in Houston, because I think she might do better on a smaller stage.
8. Booker Tactical B+, Strategic: B+
He had a few good moments. He has a lane, but he's not doing much to seize it.
9. Castro Tactical; A-, Strategic: B
He is a good debater and would make a good President some day. But it's hard to think of what demographic he connected with tonight.
10. Bullock Tactical: A-, Strategic: B+
He was good on substance but middling on style. He probably won't make the next debate stage, but if he does, I hope he rehearses getting his talking points out.
11. Beto O'Rourke: Tactical: C+, Strategic: B.
It's easy to forget that he's running in this race. But he made some good points about why he would be a good general election candidate. He already qualified for the next debate, which will be in Texas.
12. John Delaney: Tactical: A
Delaney was annoying and, at times, petulant. But he had one job-to get camera time and to beat the drum for centrism. He gamed the system well-the rules reward making attacks against specific candidates, which invites cross fire. He looked dumb in one or two moments and he's probably doomed to be a punchline down the line. But last night everyone on social media was amazed at how much face time he got. It seemed odd, but it was deliberate.
That said, he's never going to be president. And he doesn't have a long term future in politics. This is an ego campaign by a very rich man. That ego got stroked last night, and he might have made some points that get picked up by Biden or even Harris down the line.
13. Michael Bennett: Tactical: B+
He did fine. And nobody cares. He's not going to become president and he is probably hurting his long term national prospects.
14. Tim Ryan: Tactical: C.
He's a meat head. That's my analysis.
15. Andrew Yang Tactical: B.
He was terrible in the first debate, merely unremarkable this time. He's probably going to wind up with a niche platform going forward. If he's serious about his ideas, he will run for a house seat sometime. But I think he's better suited to being an Internet intellectual.
16. John Hickenlooper. Tactical: C
I think his name is John. Maybe it's Jon. Please don't tell me. It's better not to know.
17. Kristen Gillibrand: Tactical: C.
She is a scrapper. She just sucks at it. Before tonight I thought for sure she would be dropping out soon, but he came loaded for bear tonight and unloaded some heavy smack on Biden. I do not think she has accepted that this race is futile yet. Hopefully not making the cut for debate #3 will provide her that clarity.
18. Bill de Blasio Tactical: D
It's amazing for a politician to be this unlikeable and transparently phony. But we must remember that he's only in Gracie Mansion and on this stage because of Anthony Weiner's dick pics. Fuck him.
19. Gabbard: Tactical: B
She's hard to grade, because I don't know what her agenda is. If she's trying to promote the cause of peace, well then I guess she said some of the right things. But it seems that her real agenda, for reasons known only to her, was to take out Kamala Harris. She unloaded the oppo research on her but to what effect?
You're going to hear more and more speculation about her real motivations as time goes by. I'm reserving judgment for now. But I sleep well knowing that's not going to be the nominee and that she apparently doesn't intend to run for another term in the House.
20. Marianne Williamson Tactical: A-.
She got a few good lines in. The audience applauded her, especially her answer on reparations. She is going to have a very soft landing out of this-she'll grow her base of fans and she'll write more books and what-not in the future. Maybe she will get a talk show or some other platform that no one with her dangerous vies on vaccines and mental health should ever have.
She got some good buzz last night but she will never get above 2 percent in any national poll. And that is the difference between the political parties-Democrats like and admire their hippy aunts, but Republicans vote for their racist uncles.
Showing posts with label Beto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beto. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Sunday, June 30, 2019
After the First Debate: 2020 Democratic Field, Take 5
The first Democratic debates were held this week and the field has officially been shaken up. Kamala Harris laid a big heavy glove on the front-runner and now the betting markets have the race as essentially even between three candidates-Biden, Harris and Warren. I will discuss how each candidate did and then list my new power rankings.
I. Five Candidates Who Helped Themselves, At Least a Little.
1. Kamala Harris. She came hunting for Joe Biden and stalked him at the perfect moment. Joe should have been prepared for this, but he wasn't. You do not want to run the Democratic primary for president on a position of "Civil Rights is a state and local issue." But that's where Kamala put him. She had been pretty stagnant in the polls. It will be interesting to see if that changes now, because she will have a bullseye on her back at the next debate. I expect she will come prepared to defend the inevitible attack on her record as Attorney General of California. The one good thing about our absurdly long primary process is that everyone gets a turn in the barrell.
2. Elizabeth Warren. She caught a bit of a break in the candidate lottery and was the only top tier candidate on the stage Wednesday. She did not squander the spotlight, although her glowing reviews only lasted for 24 hours.
3. Pete Buttigieg. I have been dismissive of his candidacy. I still do not think that being mayor of South Bend makes you qualified to be President of the Untied States. But he was prepared for this glaring weakness-the state of South Bend's police department. He took the questions seriously and owned up to his failures. He also resisted the temptation to tell Swalwell to STFU when he started spouting off at him from the cheap seats. He may not be ready for the Oval Office yet, but I would like to see him in one of those jobs that will prepare him for it one day-maybe ambassador to the UN.
4. Julian Castro. Castro knew he had to move up the pile, at least by one rung and he decided that Beto O'Rourke would be that run to climb over. He did well and I think he might get a modest boost in the polls. But he remains a long shot.
5. Amy Klobuchar. She has been my preferred candidate from the start, so maybe she bleongs in the tier below this one. But she was serious and thoughtful and might benefit some from Biden's glass jaw being tagged. She's going to need to stand out in the second debate to not fall off the list of serious candidates.
II. Six Candidates Who Helped Themselves But It Does Not Matter.
On the first night, John Delaney an Bill de Blasio both did a reasonable job of getting their points across. They needed to be heard and they were. But they will not be president of the United States anytime soon. Eric Swalwell took a similar tack on the second debate to a similar result.
Michael Bennet did well on the second night but it's really hard to imagine how he gets any traction in this crowded field. He probably would have been a solid VP choice if he didn't run and maybe he's hoping the solid debate perofrmances will elevate his profile as a senator down the road.
The Two Governors in the field-Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper also had competent but uninspiring nights. They deserve to remain in their current jobs, which is a sort of compliment, I guess.
III. Three Candidates Who Hurt Their Chances of Being President.
1. Joe Biden. Mike Tyson once said of a vanguished opponent "Everybody's got a plan until the get hit." Biden's plan was to ride the popularity of his former boss to the nomination and the unpopularity of his opponent to the Oval Office. Things will not be that simple. He now has to come up with a narrtive that explains why he was opposed to busing for some reason other than being a bigot. There are many thoughtful critques of busing, and he might be able to cobble together an explanation. The problem is that he talked about this issue a lot over the years and it will not be hard for his opponents to make him look bad. That goes for the general election too. Donald Trump is so stupid he seemed to think the question of busing related to what type of transportation kids take to and from school. But his noise machine will not be afraid to run Facebook ads claiming that Biden is a bigot, just as they did against Hillary Clinton. This is a real problem.
I also think that his age showed poorly that night. Is this someone you want to be President nine and a half years from now? It's a fair question.
2. Bernie Sanders. Allowing 20 candidates to debate is a joke. The Democrats have committed to do so at least twice. That struck me as crazy but I think there may be some method to the madness-Bernie got a lot of mileage from being the only opponent on the stage against Hillary Clinton. But in a crowded stage, Bernie repeating his simplisitc solution to everything-"Stand up to Wall Street!" sounded really fucking stupid. He didn't direct that attack at any candidate, probably because he's not sure who is rivals are yet. (He mighat have tried to go after Warren if they were on the same night.) The result was that his words just felt like a vaccuous drone.
The Democrats do have a Bernie problem, though. He is not running to win. He is running to continue the process of shifting the paty leftward and creating a genuinely Leftist lane in American presidential politics. That means he will not drop out, even if the nomination has been sewn up by a more serious person. One year from now, he might just be a huge pain in everyone's ass.
3. Beto O'Rourke. Biden was unprepared for one specific thing. Beto was both unprepared and underwhelming. He does not seem to have figured out how to ramp-up his senate campaign into a national one.
4. Corey Booker. I mean, he wasn't terrible. People inclined to like him, thought he did fine. But it's hard to see his support growing off of that performance. He has a better chance than Klobuchar or O'Rourke of surviving past the early states but I think he is also a long shot.
IV. Six Candidates Who Performed Poorly But It Doesn't Really Matter.
Tulsi Gabbard did a decent job of sounding like the candidate of peace but she never seems fully engaged with her surrounding and frankly gives off the vague vibe of someone who was raised in a cult and/or is overly sympathetic to Russia and the Taliban. Tim Ryan managed to get the worst of an exchange with her whee he was taking the anti-Taliban position. That does not auger well for his chances in this race but he also seemed to be running for some nebulous "voice of the Rust Belt" job that doesn't actually exist.
Eric Swalwell was smarmy and gruff. I don't expect anyone to rally around that cause now. Andrew Yang straight-up choked. He didn't bother to wear a tie and he had nothing interesting to say. He did not belong on that stage.
Kirsten Gillibrand gets points for making an effort to be involved but all of her interjections fell flat because everyone knows that she is a dead-flat scratch in almost every single poll-national or statewide. She recently got zero percent in a poll of Democratic primary voters in Florida. That is impposisble for a senator from New York. (Consider that Hillary won the Florida primary by 17 points in 2008 and by 12 in 2016.) Equally baffling for a New Yorker, she is having trouble raising funds. It seems very possible that she will not qualify to be on the stage at the end of July. She is probably only doing permanent damage to her political prospects.
Marriane Willamson taught us all how to love and birthed 1,000 SNL audition tapes.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Julian Castro (5)
5. Beto O'Rourke (4)
6. Kristin Gillibrand
7. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
8. Steve Bullock (Obviously he needs to make the next debate if he wants to stick around, but I hope he does.)
9. Pete Buttigieg (13)
10. Joe Biden (8)
11. John Delaney (13)
12. John Hickenlooper (9)
13. Jay Inslee (10)
14. Corey Booker
15. Tim Ryan (11)
16. Eric Swalwell (15)
17. Seth Moulton (16)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Bernie Sanders (18)
20. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
21. Wayne Messam
22. Andrew Yang (17)
23. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
24. Mike Gravel (21)
25. Marianne Williamson (20)
VI. The Horse Race, Take Five.
This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. There is a lot more movement here than in my personal preferences.
The Top Tier Candidates (Five, Up From Three Last Time)
1. Joe Biden (2)
2. Elizabeth Warren (6)
3. Kamala Harris (4)
4. Bernie Sanders (1)
5. Pete Buttigieg (3)
The Pack (Four Candidates, Down From Six Last Time)
6. Cory Booker (5)
7. Julian Castro (9)
8. Beto O'Rourke (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)
Flawed and/or Floundering (Six Candidates, Down From Eight Last Time)
10. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
11. Kristen Gillibrand (10)
12. Jay Inslee (13)
13. John Hickenlooper (12)
14. John Delaney
15. Tim Ryan (11)
Long Shots
16. Steve Bullock (19)
17. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Tulsi Gabbbard (16)
20. Seth Moulton (17)
21. Eric Swalwell (15)
Train Wrecks
22. Andrew Yang (18)
23. Wayne Messam (20) I misspelled his name last time, which I'm sure you all noticed and were very upset about.
24. Marrianne Williamson (21)
25. Mike Gravel (22)
I. Five Candidates Who Helped Themselves, At Least a Little.
1. Kamala Harris. She came hunting for Joe Biden and stalked him at the perfect moment. Joe should have been prepared for this, but he wasn't. You do not want to run the Democratic primary for president on a position of "Civil Rights is a state and local issue." But that's where Kamala put him. She had been pretty stagnant in the polls. It will be interesting to see if that changes now, because she will have a bullseye on her back at the next debate. I expect she will come prepared to defend the inevitible attack on her record as Attorney General of California. The one good thing about our absurdly long primary process is that everyone gets a turn in the barrell.
2. Elizabeth Warren. She caught a bit of a break in the candidate lottery and was the only top tier candidate on the stage Wednesday. She did not squander the spotlight, although her glowing reviews only lasted for 24 hours.
3. Pete Buttigieg. I have been dismissive of his candidacy. I still do not think that being mayor of South Bend makes you qualified to be President of the Untied States. But he was prepared for this glaring weakness-the state of South Bend's police department. He took the questions seriously and owned up to his failures. He also resisted the temptation to tell Swalwell to STFU when he started spouting off at him from the cheap seats. He may not be ready for the Oval Office yet, but I would like to see him in one of those jobs that will prepare him for it one day-maybe ambassador to the UN.
4. Julian Castro. Castro knew he had to move up the pile, at least by one rung and he decided that Beto O'Rourke would be that run to climb over. He did well and I think he might get a modest boost in the polls. But he remains a long shot.
5. Amy Klobuchar. She has been my preferred candidate from the start, so maybe she bleongs in the tier below this one. But she was serious and thoughtful and might benefit some from Biden's glass jaw being tagged. She's going to need to stand out in the second debate to not fall off the list of serious candidates.
II. Six Candidates Who Helped Themselves But It Does Not Matter.
On the first night, John Delaney an Bill de Blasio both did a reasonable job of getting their points across. They needed to be heard and they were. But they will not be president of the United States anytime soon. Eric Swalwell took a similar tack on the second debate to a similar result.
Michael Bennet did well on the second night but it's really hard to imagine how he gets any traction in this crowded field. He probably would have been a solid VP choice if he didn't run and maybe he's hoping the solid debate perofrmances will elevate his profile as a senator down the road.
The Two Governors in the field-Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper also had competent but uninspiring nights. They deserve to remain in their current jobs, which is a sort of compliment, I guess.
III. Three Candidates Who Hurt Their Chances of Being President.
1. Joe Biden. Mike Tyson once said of a vanguished opponent "Everybody's got a plan until the get hit." Biden's plan was to ride the popularity of his former boss to the nomination and the unpopularity of his opponent to the Oval Office. Things will not be that simple. He now has to come up with a narrtive that explains why he was opposed to busing for some reason other than being a bigot. There are many thoughtful critques of busing, and he might be able to cobble together an explanation. The problem is that he talked about this issue a lot over the years and it will not be hard for his opponents to make him look bad. That goes for the general election too. Donald Trump is so stupid he seemed to think the question of busing related to what type of transportation kids take to and from school. But his noise machine will not be afraid to run Facebook ads claiming that Biden is a bigot, just as they did against Hillary Clinton. This is a real problem.
I also think that his age showed poorly that night. Is this someone you want to be President nine and a half years from now? It's a fair question.
2. Bernie Sanders. Allowing 20 candidates to debate is a joke. The Democrats have committed to do so at least twice. That struck me as crazy but I think there may be some method to the madness-Bernie got a lot of mileage from being the only opponent on the stage against Hillary Clinton. But in a crowded stage, Bernie repeating his simplisitc solution to everything-"Stand up to Wall Street!" sounded really fucking stupid. He didn't direct that attack at any candidate, probably because he's not sure who is rivals are yet. (He mighat have tried to go after Warren if they were on the same night.) The result was that his words just felt like a vaccuous drone.
The Democrats do have a Bernie problem, though. He is not running to win. He is running to continue the process of shifting the paty leftward and creating a genuinely Leftist lane in American presidential politics. That means he will not drop out, even if the nomination has been sewn up by a more serious person. One year from now, he might just be a huge pain in everyone's ass.
3. Beto O'Rourke. Biden was unprepared for one specific thing. Beto was both unprepared and underwhelming. He does not seem to have figured out how to ramp-up his senate campaign into a national one.
4. Corey Booker. I mean, he wasn't terrible. People inclined to like him, thought he did fine. But it's hard to see his support growing off of that performance. He has a better chance than Klobuchar or O'Rourke of surviving past the early states but I think he is also a long shot.
IV. Six Candidates Who Performed Poorly But It Doesn't Really Matter.
Tulsi Gabbard did a decent job of sounding like the candidate of peace but she never seems fully engaged with her surrounding and frankly gives off the vague vibe of someone who was raised in a cult and/or is overly sympathetic to Russia and the Taliban. Tim Ryan managed to get the worst of an exchange with her whee he was taking the anti-Taliban position. That does not auger well for his chances in this race but he also seemed to be running for some nebulous "voice of the Rust Belt" job that doesn't actually exist.
Eric Swalwell was smarmy and gruff. I don't expect anyone to rally around that cause now. Andrew Yang straight-up choked. He didn't bother to wear a tie and he had nothing interesting to say. He did not belong on that stage.
Kirsten Gillibrand gets points for making an effort to be involved but all of her interjections fell flat because everyone knows that she is a dead-flat scratch in almost every single poll-national or statewide. She recently got zero percent in a poll of Democratic primary voters in Florida. That is impposisble for a senator from New York. (Consider that Hillary won the Florida primary by 17 points in 2008 and by 12 in 2016.) Equally baffling for a New Yorker, she is having trouble raising funds. It seems very possible that she will not qualify to be on the stage at the end of July. She is probably only doing permanent damage to her political prospects.
Marriane Willamson taught us all how to love and birthed 1,000 SNL audition tapes.
V. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Five:
These are the candidates ranked purely by my personal preferences. The number in Parenthesis indicates their rank in the Previous Rankings. The field has grown by three candidates since the last time I did these rankings. Not much movement at the top, but Buttigiege moved up by 4 spots and dear old Marrianne Williamson dropped by five.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Julian Castro (5)
5. Beto O'Rourke (4)
6. Kristin Gillibrand
7. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
8. Steve Bullock (Obviously he needs to make the next debate if he wants to stick around, but I hope he does.)
9. Pete Buttigieg (13)
10. Joe Biden (8)
11. John Delaney (13)
12. John Hickenlooper (9)
13. Jay Inslee (10)
14. Corey Booker
15. Tim Ryan (11)
16. Eric Swalwell (15)
17. Seth Moulton (16)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Bernie Sanders (18)
20. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
21. Wayne Messam
22. Andrew Yang (17)
23. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
24. Mike Gravel (21)
25. Marianne Williamson (20)
VI. The Horse Race, Take Five.
This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. There is a lot more movement here than in my personal preferences.
The Top Tier Candidates (Five, Up From Three Last Time)
1. Joe Biden (2)
2. Elizabeth Warren (6)
3. Kamala Harris (4)
4. Bernie Sanders (1)
5. Pete Buttigieg (3)
The Pack (Four Candidates, Down From Six Last Time)
6. Cory Booker (5)
7. Julian Castro (9)
8. Beto O'Rourke (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)
Flawed and/or Floundering (Six Candidates, Down From Eight Last Time)
10. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
11. Kristen Gillibrand (10)
12. Jay Inslee (13)
13. John Hickenlooper (12)
14. John Delaney
15. Tim Ryan (11)
Long Shots
16. Steve Bullock (19)
17. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Tulsi Gabbbard (16)
20. Seth Moulton (17)
21. Eric Swalwell (15)
Train Wrecks
22. Andrew Yang (18)
23. Wayne Messam (20) I misspelled his name last time, which I'm sure you all noticed and were very upset about.
24. Marrianne Williamson (21)
25. Mike Gravel (22)
Thursday, March 14, 2019
2020 Democratic Field, Take 3
I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.
This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates. If thier standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis. Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.
Tip of the 40 ounce to Sherrod Brown, who decided to sit this race out and hope for a VP call.
Five That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar.
2. Kamala Harris
3. Beto O'Rourke
The reaction to his launch on liberal social media was surprisingly negative. But he has talent and he will win find his feet and be a force.
4. Elizabeth Warren
She has put forth the most specific and substantive policy ideas so far.
5. Chris Murphy
Seems less likely to run.
Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
6. Kristin Gillibrand
Uninspiring so far, which is why I moved her down to the second tier of my personal choices.
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Joe Biden (9)
10. Mitch Landrieu
11. Tim Ryan
12. John Hickenlooper
13. Jay Inslee
14. Julian Castro (Unranked)
Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
15. Andrew Cuomo
16. Terry McAuliffe
17. Corey Booker
18. Pete Buttigieg
He had a good cable TV roll out on CNN and raised 600K. I still think he's running solely to raise his profile, but it's worth acknowledging that he's already done that, a bit.
Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
19. Bernie Sanders (21)
20. Tom Steyer
21. The Field of Dumb Celebrities
One WHAT THE FUCK?
22. Tulsi Gabbard. (Unranked)
II. The 2020 Hourse Race.
The Top Tier Candidates.
1. Bernie Sanders 16%/60%
2. Joe Biden 14%/70%
3. Kamala Harris 14%/65%
4. Elizabeth Warren 11%/60%
5. Corey Booker 6%/50%
Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps
6. Beto O'Rourke 9%/70%
7. Amy Klobuchar 9%/70% To win, you have to run. That's why she leap frogged Beto.
Third Tier: Plausible But Flawd.
8. Kristin Gillibrand 3%/57%
9. Andrew Cuomo 1%/60%
10. Terry McCauliffe 1%/60%
11. Chris Murphy 1%/65%.
Fourth Tier: Long Shots.
If Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, John Delaney or Eric Swaell somehow get through this crowded field, then they possess political skills of formidable depth and would be the favorite to win against Trump.
If Buttigieg, Gabbard or Some Dumb Celebrity is the nominee, Trump will probably win.
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