The Field Begins To Whittle (The 2020 Democratic Field, Take Seven)

Labor Day is traditionally when voters supposedly start paying attention to a presidential election.  So we are only one year away from normal people starting to really thinkg about this process.  In the meantime, we political nerds soldier on.

I last updated the field four weeks ago. Since then we have had a few drop outs.  Three dropped out before officially missing the cut and Senator Gillibrand dropped out as soon as she officially missed the cut. (Good for her. Being a senator from New York is a pretty sweet gig. There's not need to waste the next 4 months in Iowa and New Hampshire.)

I. The Power Rankings, Take Seven.

These are just my preferences, without regard to the chances they will win the nomination.  There is not a lot of movement this time, except for the spaces created by former candidates, most notably Jay Inslee who had shot up from 13th to 4th in my last ranking. The removal of the three other former candidates, Hickenlooper (13), Gillibrand (14) and Moulton (16) caused less disruption. 

1. Amy Klobuchar  
2. Kamala Harris 
3. Elizabeth Warren    
4 Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)  He seems more relevant after his response to the El Paso shooting and just yesterday there was another horrific shooting in West Texas.  I'm not counting him out yet.

5. Julian Castro (Down from 4)  He seems to be getting slithgly desperate. This week he put forth a proposal to make it illegal for animal shelters to euthanize unadopted pets. There may ben argument for tha ton the merits, but it is NOT an issue for the federal government to decide. It struck me as an attempt to hit a very specific fundraising niche.  (Cat ladys.)

6. Michael Bennett (Up from 7)
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Pete Buttigieg (9)
9. Joe Biden (10)
10. John Delaney (11)

11. Corey Booker  (12)
12. Tim Ryan
13. Joe Sestak (Up from 17)
14. Bernie Sanders (18)
15. Wayne Messam  (20)

16. Andrew Yang (19)  I have to explain something here. Yang moved "up" 3 spots because 4 candidates dropped out.  But I'm moving him behind Wayne Messam for a very specific reason. I know nothing about Wayne Messam. He is the mayor of a some mid-size Florida city that I can't even remember the name of. He's youngish and African-American. I don't know if he's a good mayor or a bad mayor. I don't know his religion or his priorities or his favorite band. I think it's slightly absurd that he's running for President of the United States but I also have to assume that he is more qualified and competent for the job than a name chosen at random from the phone book. 

To be ranked below Messam, I have to think you would be worse than a random name chosen from a phone book. Last month I gave Yang the benefit of the doubt that he was. I have now sseen enough of him to conclude that he is not. His ideas are stupid and I believe he is running to become a fringe public intellectual akin to Ron Paul. He is going to wind up building a small political movement that disrupts things for no substantive purpose. Just like Ron Paul.

17. Tom Steyer (Unranked)  I think I forgot about him last time. I'm glad he didn't qualify for the debate because he's a rich asshole who should have better ways to waste his money than to juice the ad revenues of Iowa TV chanels and radio stations. Build a hospital for Christ's sake.
18. Bill de Blasio (21)  

19. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
20. Marianne Williamson (23) 

II. The Horse Race, Take Seven.

A.  The Top Tier (Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
4. Kamala Harris (Down from 3)

Harris' slip in the polls has been pretty consistent over the past month.  Her performance in the 2nd debate was poorly received and pretty much erased the bounce that she got from a strong performance in the first.  I still think Bernie is unlikely to be the nominee but he should do well in the first 2 states and I think it will be tough for Harris to withstand finishing out of the money in both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Buttigieg or O'Rourke finishes ahead of her in either place. She is still my preference among the top 4 candidates, but she can't be please with the trajectory of her candidacy.

B.  Tier Two (Those Guys).

5.  Pete Buttigieg
6.  Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)
7. Cory Booker  (Down form 7)
8.  Julian Castro

I slid Mayor Pete down to the second tier because his support has been on a plateau for months. He is an appealing guy and has the right temperament to be President some day. But I don't think people are going to flock to his candidacy in a big way. He's kind of stuck in 5th place, unless Kamala or Bernie tank. 

He also fits a little better with the other three candidates in this tier. They are all moderate. They each have some strengths and some obvious weaknesses. Three of them have been mayors. If a Democrat wins, all of them will be considered for important jobs.  And there is a least a chance that any one of them might find a cause or have a moment that shoots them up into contention. It hasn't happened yet, but there is hope.

C. Tier Three (The Grown Ups).

9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Michael Bennet (12)
11. Steve Bullock (14)
12. John Delaney (13)

These candidates are more experienced than the "Those Guys" Bunch but a lot less charismatic and therefore less likely to be the nominee.  If God gave me a magic wand and said I could pick which tier the next president would come from, I would choose this bunch.  But I am more moderate than the typical primary voter and less interested in how dynamic someone seems on television. I wish this group well, and I think 2 or 3 of them might be able to 

D. Tier Four (Long Shots)

13. Andrew Yang (21)  He's had an undeniable bump in the polls-all the way to 2 or 3 percent.
14. Tulsi Gabbard (19)
15. Tim Ryan   I think he's running to raise his profile in order to one day run for Governor or maybe for speaker of the House.
16. Joe Sestak (18)
17. Tom Steyer
18. Bill de Blasio  (17)   The complete rejection of this guy by the national party has warmed my heart. 


E.  Fifth Tier (Trainwrecks)
19. Wayne Mesam (22)  I hope he sticks around if only because he now serves a specific purpose in my power rankings.   I wonder if his wife teases him by calling him "President-Elect" when he forgets to take out the trash.
20. Marianne Williamson (23)  Fuck her.

After the First Debate: 2020 Democratic Field, Take 5

The first Democratic debates were held this week and the field has officially been shaken up.  Kamala Harris laid a big heavy glove on the front-runner and now the betting markets have the race as essentially even between three candidates-Biden, Harris and Warren.  I will discuss how each candidate did and then list my new power rankings.

I. Five Candidates Who Helped Themselves, At Least a Little.

1. Kamala Harris. She came hunting for Joe Biden and stalked him at the perfect moment. Joe should have been prepared for this, but he wasn't.  You do not want to run the Democratic primary for president on a position of "Civil Rights is a state and local issue."  But that's where Kamala put him. She had been pretty stagnant in the polls. It will be interesting to see if that changes now, because she will have a bullseye on her back at the next debate. I expect she will come prepared to defend the inevitible attack on her record as Attorney General of California.  The one good thing about our absurdly long primary process is that everyone gets a turn in the barrell.

2. Elizabeth Warren.  She caught a bit of a break in the candidate lottery and was the only top tier candidate on the stage Wednesday. She did not squander the spotlight, although her glowing reviews only lasted for 24 hours.

3. Pete Buttigieg.  I have been dismissive of his candidacy. I still do not think that being mayor of South Bend makes you qualified to be President of the Untied States.  But he was prepared for this glaring weakness-the state of South Bend's police department. He took the questions seriously and owned up to his failures. He also resisted the temptation to tell Swalwell to STFU when he started spouting off at him from the cheap seats.  He may not be ready for the Oval Office yet, but I would like to see him in one of those jobs that will prepare him for it one day-maybe ambassador to the UN.

4. Julian Castro.  Castro knew he had to move up the pile, at least by one rung and he decided that Beto O'Rourke would be that run to climb over. He did well and I think he might get a modest boost in the polls. But he remains a long shot.

5. Amy Klobuchar.  She has been my preferred candidate from the start, so maybe she bleongs in the tier below this one. But she was serious and thoughtful and might benefit some from Biden's glass jaw being tagged.  She's going to need to stand out in the second debate to not fall off the list of serious candidates.

II.  Six Candidates Who Helped Themselves But It Does Not Matter.

On the first night, John Delaney an Bill de Blasio both did a reasonable job of getting their points across. They needed to be heard and they were. But they will not be president of the United States anytime soon. Eric Swalwell took a similar tack on the second debate to a similar result.

Michael Bennet did well on the second night but it's really hard to imagine how he gets any traction in this crowded field.  He probably would have been a solid VP choice if he didn't run and maybe he's hoping the solid debate perofrmances will elevate his profile as a senator down the road.

The Two Governors in the field-Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper also had competent but uninspiring nights. They deserve to remain in their current jobs, which is a sort of compliment, I guess.

III.  Three Candidates Who Hurt Their Chances of Being President.

1. Joe Biden.  Mike Tyson once said of a vanguished opponent "Everybody's got a plan until the get hit."  Biden's plan was to ride the popularity of his former boss to the nomination and the unpopularity of his opponent to the Oval Office. Things will not be that simple.  He now has to come up with a narrtive that explains why he was opposed to busing for some reason other than being a bigot.  There are many thoughtful critques of busing, and he might be able to cobble together an explanation. The problem is that he talked about this issue a lot over the years and it will not be hard for his opponents to make him look bad.  That goes for the general election too. Donald Trump is so stupid he seemed to think the question of busing related to what type of transportation kids take to and from school. But his noise machine will not be afraid to run Facebook ads claiming that Biden is a bigot, just as they did against Hillary Clinton.  This is a real problem.

I also think that his age showed poorly that night.  Is this someone you want to be President nine and a half years from now?  It's a fair question.

2. Bernie Sanders.  Allowing 20 candidates to debate is a joke. The Democrats have committed to do so at least twice.  That struck me as crazy but I think there may be some method to the madness-Bernie got a lot of mileage from being the only opponent on the stage against Hillary Clinton. But in a crowded stage, Bernie repeating his simplisitc solution to everything-"Stand up to Wall Street!" sounded really fucking stupid.  He didn't direct that attack at any candidate, probably because he's not sure who is rivals are yet. (He mighat have tried to go after Warren if they were on the same night.) The result was that his words just felt like a vaccuous drone.

The Democrats do have a Bernie problem, though. He is not running to win. He is running to continue the process of shifting the paty leftward and creating a genuinely Leftist lane in American presidential politics. That means he will not drop out, even if the nomination has been sewn up by a more serious person.  One year from now, he might just be a huge pain in everyone's ass.

3. Beto O'Rourke.  Biden was unprepared for one specific thing. Beto was both unprepared and underwhelming. He does not seem to have figured out how to ramp-up his senate campaign into a national one.

4. Corey Booker.  I mean, he wasn't terrible. People inclined to like him, thought he did fine. But it's hard to see his support growing off of that performance. He has a better chance than Klobuchar or O'Rourke of surviving past the early states but I think he is also a long shot.

IV. Six Candidates Who Performed Poorly But It Doesn't Really Matter.

Tulsi Gabbard did a decent job of sounding like the candidate of peace but she never seems fully engaged with her surrounding and frankly gives off the vague vibe of someone who was raised in a cult and/or is overly sympathetic to Russia and the Taliban. Tim Ryan managed to get the worst of an exchange with her whee he was taking the anti-Taliban position. That does not auger well for his chances in this race but he also seemed to be running for some nebulous "voice of the Rust Belt" job that doesn't actually exist.

Eric Swalwell was smarmy and gruff. I don't expect anyone to rally around that cause now.  Andrew Yang straight-up choked. He didn't bother to wear a tie and he had nothing interesting to say. He did not belong on that stage.

Kirsten Gillibrand gets points for making an effort to be involved but all of her interjections fell flat because everyone knows that she is a dead-flat scratch in almost every single poll-national or statewide. She recently got zero percent in a poll of Democratic primary voters in Florida. That is impposisble for a senator from New York. (Consider that Hillary won the Florida primary by 17 points in 2008 and by 12 in 2016.)  Equally baffling for a New Yorker, she is having trouble raising funds. It seems very possible that she will not qualify to be on the stage at the end of July.  She is probably only doing permanent damage to her political prospects.

Marriane Willamson taught us all how to love and birthed 1,000 SNL audition tapes.

V. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Five:  

These are the candidates ranked purely by my personal preferences. The number in Parenthesis indicates their rank in the Previous Rankings. The field has grown by three candidates since the last time I did these rankings. Not much movement at the top, but Buttigiege moved up by 4 spots and dear old Marrianne Williamson dropped by five.

1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Julian Castro (5)
5. Beto O'Rourke (4)
6. Kristin Gillibrand
7. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
8. Steve Bullock (Obviously he needs to make the next debate if he wants to stick around, but I hope he does.)
9. Pete Buttigieg (13)
10. Joe Biden (8)
11. John Delaney (13)
12. John Hickenlooper (9)
13. Jay Inslee (10)
14. Corey Booker
15. Tim Ryan (11)
16. Eric Swalwell (15)
17. Seth Moulton (16)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Bernie Sanders (18)
20. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
21. Wayne Messam
22. Andrew Yang (17)
23. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
24. Mike Gravel (21)
25. Marianne Williamson (20)

                                           VI. The Horse Race, Take Five.

This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. There is a lot more movement here than in my personal preferences.

The Top Tier Candidates (Five, Up From Three Last Time)
1. Joe Biden (2)
2. Elizabeth Warren (6)
3. Kamala Harris (4)
4. Bernie Sanders (1)
5. Pete Buttigieg (3)

The Pack (Four Candidates, Down From Six Last Time)
6. Cory Booker (5)
7. Julian Castro (9)
8. Beto O'Rourke (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)

Flawed and/or Floundering (Six Candidates, Down From Eight Last Time)
10. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
11. Kristen Gillibrand (10)
12. Jay Inslee (13)
13. John Hickenlooper (12)
14. John Delaney
15. Tim Ryan (11)

Long Shots
16. Steve Bullock (19)
17. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Tulsi Gabbbard (16)
20. Seth Moulton (17)
21. Eric Swalwell (15)

Train Wrecks
22. Andrew Yang (18)
23. Wayne Messam (20)  I misspelled his name last time, which I'm sure you all noticed and were very upset about.
24. Marrianne Williamson (21)
25. Mike Gravel (22)