October: The Story of the Russian Revolution by China Miéville
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

The events of Saint Petersburg, 1917 are among the most fascinating in history. The largest and most oppressive monarchical empire in the world was over thrown by something that proved to be much, much worse. What makes this book interesting is that it was written by someone who can't quite bring himself to conced that last point.

I never heard of China Mieville before finding the handsome cover of this book. He is a gifted and confident writer who strikes the right balance between procedural detail and human drama. I have read many books on this subject, but Mievell made the material seem fresh.

Mievell concedses off the bat that he is not a neutral observer of these events. A quick Google search confirmed tha the is, even in the year of our Lord 2019, a committed Marxist. His affection for Lenin is not subtle. And it takes a little mental energy to periodically remember that the author believes in the economic equivalent of Scientology. But the story drives forward and builds to the glorious moment when a ramshackle band of second rate political theorists take over land spanning 11 time zones.

At times I was deeply annoyed by his ability to bend facts away from Lenin's faults. He seems to genuinely believe that Lenin was a pure soul with only the best intentions. It borders on the embarassing at times, but I may have read to many right-wing accounts of these same events.

In the epilogue, Mievelle does acknowledge the profound problems that revealed themselves in the decade after the October Revolution. But his thesis seems to be that those events were not an inevitible consequnce of Bolshevism. On that, I must strongly disagree. But this book is a quick read and the style is entertaining.

I will mention one annoying style clithc-Mievell is fond of using obscure words for commonly used concepts. Several times he uses a word that I've never head and then immediately saves the reader a Google by defining it. When a writer feels that is necessary, he's just showing off his Scrabble abilities. Here's a related example. In the epiloque he describes the display of Lenin's corpse as "A gnarled and ghastly relic, recieving obeisance from its catafalque.

And here, let me Google that for you. Catafalque: A decorated wooden framework supporting the coffin of a distinguished person during a funeral or while lying in state. Obeisance: deferential respect.







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Thoughts on the Game of Thrones Finale

Note: this is published about 90 minutes before the Game of Thrones Series Finale. It is full of spoliers throug the first 5 episodes of season 8. I've also read the firs two books, which might inform my commentary. 


Reaction to the final season of Game of Thrones has been very negative. As I write this, there is just one episode left and no one seems to think the show can stick the landing. There are just too many loose threads to tie up and we already know that certain key characters will have unsatisfying story endings.

When this truncated seasson began, I started watching the old episodes. It's been a bittersweet process. The writing and promise of the first two seasons really make season eight look worse.

There are at least three levels on which to appreciate GOT.  Ian McShane famously called GOT "A show about tits and dragons."  Surely the tits and the dragons brough in a lot of casual viewers. Re-watching the first two season reminded me of how shameless the "sexpostion" was in the early goings. As the show progressed, the show (and most of its audience) matured and there was less need for exploitive titalation. A slightly deeper reading of the story is that it's a story about a war. The plot is set in motion by a disput over who the rightful monarch is. And the second season starts with the War of 5 Kings. But another glaring thing about the rewatch of those episodes is how little combat is shown. When Tyrion heads off to battle for the first time, he is knocked out by accident and we learn the result, with him, after he comes to, hours after the battle. We are told that Rob Stark wins several battles against the Lannisters, but we only see glimpses of it. The show's budget and popularity eventually demanded more warfare, and we got that in a stone classic of an episode two years ago-The Battle of the Bastards. The show has twice tried to match the quality and drama of that hour this season and it failed both times.

For me, the show has always been about politics. George R.R. Martin created something truly ambititous-an entire mythology and history that reminds us of midieval Europe but inhabited by characters that are three dimensional, complicated and most of all, smart. Consider how the Starks and Lannisters can each give credulous narratives of how the war started. The Starks accused Tyrion of trying to kill Bran, but he didn't. Ned Stark assumed that Cersei killed John Arryn, whose death put in motion the action of the very first episode. But he was actually killed by his wife, Lysa, the sister of Katlyn Stark.  The Starks of course would point out that Joffrey was a bastard and that their lord was killed for doing nothing more than speaking the truth. As with any great war, both sides have a narative that can become the officially history, if only they win.

Ah yes, winning. The show's title tells us this a game. From the jump, we have been rooting for team Stark and hoping that one of them winds up on the Iron Throne. I think we'll probably get that much closure tonight, although I'm not sure how the lesser story lines will end up.

Part of me wants the finale to just be a total fuck it episode. Instead of resolving the question of who gets the Iron Throne and what is to be done with Daeny now that she is crazy, we could open with a title card that says "Ten Years Later....In High Garden." Then Bronn can walk out, talking directly to the camera, "Oh hi there! I'm so glad you stopped by. Tonight we are celebrating my first decade as lord of High Garden with some old friends. You never know who might stop by."  [Off camera, a large dog barks.Cut to Tormund and Wolf walking toward the castle entrance.]

But I doubt that will happen. We will probably get a conventional resolution of the big issues. I tend to think that Danerys will die, but I'm not sure how. The genius of this show was how it emphasized the importance of alliances and family. Daeny has no relatives and almost no friends. Her nephew/ lover is not goin to be able to forgive what she did last week. So she's got to go. And her dragon too. I think the best resolution might be to have her commit suicide, but I don't think they have set that up at all.

So I will watch and learn.  I feel now that the show was about three sets of siblings and how each of those eleven characters have made their way through the world. I tend to do a lot of ranking on this website, so I'll close by ranking these 11 characters and give some thoughts on the ending they either got, or the ending I think they deserve to get tonight.

1. Tyrion Lannister. No one played the game better than him, rising from family outcast all the way to The Acting Hand of the King, and later the Hand of a Queen. Along the way he killed his father, had his heart broken and became cellibate for reasons that don't really make sense. Last week he betrayed Cersei in order to hopefully avert a bloodbath and hopefully spare the life of his unborn niece or nephew. Danerys will not let that stand. But dying for that sin is as fitting an ending as any I can think of.

2. Cersei Lannister. Her evolution from drunken cuckold (and cuckolder) to reigning monarch of the seven kingdoms was believable every step of the way.  And then last week she watched her capital burn, helplessly, only to die in the basement of her palace. I read a lot of negative comments about how she deserved a more dramatic death than to be killed by falling debris, but it was believable to me. She put this war in motion with her ambition and the whole thing collapsed on her head.

3. Sansa Stark.  It is painfully obvious that she is the most qualified monarch left on the board.The saddest thing on this show is that Sansa is going to go through eight seasons without being loved by a man. She was brutalized by Joffrey's henchman and raped by Ramsey Bolton (nee Snow). If anyone has earned a happy ending, it is Sansa Stark. She should either take the Iron Throne, serve as Jon's hand or declare the North Independent and let Brienne to commander her forces against any southern opposition.

4. Arya Stark.  My favorite part of last week's episode was when Arya left the Red Keep. The Hound was right-she deserves a live that is about something other than revenge.  Rewatching season two really made me appreciate how good Maisie Williams was even as a girl. Her scenes as Tywin Lannister's cup bearer are among the best of the whole series. I know some people will cringe if she rides off to Storm's End and marries Gendry, but she deserves a life like that. Gendry is a good guy and they have been through some shit together. Gendry also has no clue how to run an estate. Arya can make the Baratheons the new Tyrells-a secret matriarchy of enormous wealth.

5. Jaime Lannister.  Like the above mentioned characters, Jaime goes through an exraordinary evolution in eight seasons.The Kingslayer delayed the destruction of King's Landing by about 20 years but history will just remember him as the guy who impregnated his sister four times. I think he deserved a better death than the one he got, but it's also true that his love of Cersei was the one thing he couldn't ever overcome.

6. Jon Snow.  I didn't start watching this show until after the Red Wedding. But the scene in the second episode where Ned and Jon part ways hooked me for good.  "You are a Stark. You don't have my name but you do have my blood."  Something about that line reminded me of Obi Won telling Luke that Darth Vader killed his father. He was telling the truth, but not the whole truth.  The discovery of that truth will always be one of the great story lines in television history. BUT.....as a character? He's not very complicated. I know we're supposed to get one heroe to root for even if he's dull, but I wish the show runners had allowed Jon to be something other than a do-gooder once in awhile.

7. Rob Stark.  Dave and Dan are getting a lot of shit for this season, but let's not forget that they did a great job with the first three seasons of the show. Their best trick was making viewers believe that The Young Wolf was goin to win the day. In the books Rob Stark doesn't even get a single chapter from his perspective. But Dave and Dan imbued him with some humanity and Richard Madden's chemisty with Oona Chaplin really sold that story line.

8, Bran Stark. The low-key way everyone puts up with this weirdo has made me laugh multiple times in season eight. His telling Euron that he's a good man was cringe worthy but his other scenes have been good. And he was so charming before becoming the Three Eyed Raven.

9. Danerys Targaryen. She might just end up on that Iron Throne that she thinks she's entitled to before the night is over. But as, I said above, her character always felt peripheral to me. Emilia Clarke was not ready for this role when she was cast. It's worth noting that she is supposed to be 14 years old when the action begins, but HBO decided to cast an older actress for the very principled reason that they wanted to show off her breasts, a lot.  Emilia's acting got better as the show went on, but she never sold me on being the breaker of chains and the writing this season did not properly set up her heel turn last week. (There's plenty of foreshadowing of it in the earlier seasons, but they mostly abandoned that as she became an obvious symbol of female strength and human virtue.)

10. Rickon Stark.  Adorable child actor who only got two memorable moments-naming his wolf Shaggy Dog and being killed by an arrow because he didn't run in a zig-zag pattern. That is a very Stark death.

11. Viserys Targaryen. The actor was fine in this part but the character was just a plot device. The most interesting thing about that is the fact that he was the rightful owner of the Iron Throne. And look at what good it did him. Because the show is about politics, not legal niceties.  (Good luck Jon!)

2020 Democratic Field, Take 4

The big news this week is of course the Mueller Report. My impression is that the report demonstrates multiple instances where the president obstructed justice.  The spinning of this report by Attorney General Barr was exteremely disingenuous. In a just world, Barr would resign in shame.  But that is not the world we live in.

The next big event will be hearings and the testimony of Robert Mueller (and, to a less extent, Donald McGahn) will probably determine whether or not there will be impeachment hearings. If there are hearings, then the president will probably be impeached.  Then it will be up to the senate.  I think it's very unlikely that Trump would be convicted in a senate trial but the process should go forward.

If I had to bet right now, I would say that the President will be impeached by the House but not convicted by the Senate. In fact, I think the Senate might simply refuse to hold a trial at all.  That means he will most likely still be President a year from now. He will almost certainly run for re-election and if so, he will be the nominee of the Republican Party.  Now, to the Democrats and their enormous field of mostly mediocre candidates.

I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.

This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates.  If their standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis.  Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.

Tip of the 40 ounce to Terry McCauliffe, Chris Murphy, Andrew Cuomo, Mitch Landrieu, and Andrew Steyer who decided to sit this race out since I last published my rankings.

Four That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar. 
2. Elizabeth Warren  (4)
She continues to impress me with her attention to detail and creative energy. If this race was determined purely on substantive issues, I think she would win the nomination and the election. But her poll numbers continue to disappoint and her fundraising numbers were lackluster for the first quarter. I hope she stays viable and gains some traction. She has earned it.
3. Kamala Harris  (2)
She is running a cautious race so far. I think she knows that she has the money and resume to stay viable and she wants to spend 2019 avoiding any incidents that might jeopardize that.
4. Beto O'Rourke  (3)
Also underwhelming so far. He needs to step up his game to the national stage.

Seven That I Would Be Happy With:
5. Julian Castro (14)
This is a big jump in a tremendous field. I like his temperament and presentation so far. He strikes me as someone that will benefit from the debates, in a way similar to how John Kasich moved up the Republican polls in 2016 after just barely qualifying for the main stage of the first debate. 
6. Kristin Gillibrand 
I am close to writing her off. A lot of Democrats hold her principled position on Al Franken against her, which is a shame. But a senator from New York state should be better able to raise funds and attract press. 
7. Steve Bullock (8)  No sign that he's running but I'll leave him in for now.
8. Joe Biden 
He has baggage and is a older than I think is ideal for a president, but I think his political instincts will serve him will. He has been wise to delay the announcement because he has the name recognition to allow him the luxury of sitting out the silly season. 
9. John Hickenlooper (12)
10. Jay Inslee (13)
11. Tim Ryan

Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
12. Pete Buttigieg (18)
Became a media darling by saying yes to everything. His novelty is just about to wear off, I expect, but he'll hang around for the voting, no matter what.
13. John Delaney (Unranked)
14.  Corey Booker (17)
15. Eric Swalwell (Unranked)

Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
16. Seth Moulton (Unranked)
17. Andrew Yang (Unranked)
18.  Bernie Sanders (19)
19.  Wayne Messam (Unranked)

Three WHAT THE FUCK?
20. Marianne Wilamson (Unranked)
21. Mike Gravel (Unranked)
22. Tulsi Gabbard

II.  The 2020 Hourse Race.

Here is what the polling shows so far: Bernie and Biden each have about a quarter of the party ready to support them. Everyone else is stuck in single digits. Buttigieg has out performed expectations and is currently in third place in most polls.  Harris, Warren, O'Rourke, Booker and Klobuchar have yet to gain traction but they are the middle of the pack for now.  Gillibrand, Inslee, Hickenlooper and all of the House members are the bottom tier for now. Below them, there are a handful of celebrity and novelty candidates who are just running for attention.

Because the field is so large, it might be helpful to try to think of which candidates could compete for certain voters. There are countless factors that this could be broken down by but I think the #1 issue for Democrats next year will be simple-Remove Donald Trump for office. So I think it's useful to think of these "lanes" in terms of what their appeal will be in the general election. If you like, you can think of these lanes as Left, Moderate and Centrist. But I think it's more interesting to think of them in terms of what voting blocs they would appeal to in the general election if they were the nominee.

In 2016 Donald Trump exceeded Mitt Romney's 2012 vote total but just over 2 million votes. Hillary Clinton's  vote total was just 65,000 less than Barack Obama in 2012 or about 4 million less than Obama's 2008 total.

The dramatic shifts in voting patterns happened among the other candidates in the field.  The Green Party and Libertarian parties nominated, respectively, Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2012 and 2106. The Greens increased their vote total by just under one million votes. The Libertarians increased theirs by over 3.2 million votes. Additionally, Evan McMullin got over 700,000 votes running as right-wing independent. (The 5th place finisher in 2012 got only 120K votes.)

The 2008 Obama Coaltion was an electoral marvel. It sucked up every electoral college vote that was in play. It damn near won Missouri. It held together enough to win in 2012 but it did not hold for 2016. For the rest of the 2020 cycle my analysis will discuss these three segments of the Obama Diaspora: 1. Trump or Stayed Homes 2. Soft Libertarians 3. Protest Greens.

1. SOFT LIBERTARIANS: (3.9 Million voters)

Voters who went Libertarian (or McMullin) in 2012 but not in 2012.

These are mostly people who are right of center that could not bring themselves to vote for either Trump or Hillary. I expect that Trump has won over a fair amount of them. The Democrats would win a lot of them if they nominate a centrist like Biden, but I don't think they will turn out for Bernie or anyone they perceive as either corrupt or inexperienced.

2. TRUMP OR STAYED HOME (3.7 million voters)

Obama 2008 voters who didn't vote for Hillary in 2016.

There are two sub-demographics in this group.

A. People who were upset with George W. Bush in 2008 and gave Obama a chance. He didn't keep many of them in the fold in 2012 or 2016. Some of them will probably come back in 2020 because they don't like Donald Trump personally, although that assumes that the Dems will nominate someone that they do like. 

B. People who didn't turn out for Hillary in 2016. As discussed above Hillary nearly matched Obama's national vote total from 2012, but that was because of higher turnout in non-competitive states. For example, her combined vote totals in CA and TX exceeded Obama's 2012 haul by 1.468 million. But her combined totals in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was 698,000 less than Obama in 2012.  Some of those people switched over to Trump but more of them simply stayed home.  Whoever the Democratic nominees is, they will know that they must turn out marginal voters in those three states.

3. PROTEST GREENS (1 million voters)

Voters who voted Green in 2016 but not in 2012.

Jill Stein tripled her vote count between 2012 and 2016, from half a million votes to 1.5 million votes. Those million votes are most likely to come home to the Democratic party but it has to be acknowledged that a centrist like Biden will pick up fewer of them than Sanders or Warren will.

These are imprecise groups. There is some double counting, especially between the first two groups. But I think it's a useful matrix for categorizing the "lanes" of the 2020 Democratic Primary.  I give you our first attempt to rank the chance of each serious candidate to be the nominee, relative to others and divided by who they would most appeal to in the general election.

Tier	Protest Greens	Trump/Stayed Home	Soft Libertarian
First	Sanders	Buttiegieg	Biden
Second	Warren	Harris	Booker
Third		O'Rourke	Klobuchar
Fourth	Ryan	Castro	Gillibrand
Fifth		Inslee
Sixth		Hickenloper

Note: The Red Box is intentionally blank, because I think Ryan is less likely to be the nominee than O'Rourke or Klobuchar. For that matter, I think he's less likely than Castro or Gillibrand also. 

Here is the whole field, even the weirdos nobodies and proxy by grandchildren candidates, ranked from 1 to 22.

The Top Tier Candidates.

1. Bernie Sanders  

2. Joe Biden  

3. Pete Butigieg 

The Pack. (Someone from this group will break out of IA and NH to be a contender.)

4. Kamala Harris 

5. Corey Booker 

6. Elizabeth Warren 

7. Beto O'Rourke  

8. Amy Klobuchar 

9. Juan Castro 

Third Tier: Plausible But Flawed And/or Floundering.

10. Kristin Gillibrand 

11. Tim Ryan 

12. John Hickenlooper 

13.  Jay Inslee 

14. John Delaney.

15. Eric Swalwell 

16. Tulsi Gabbard

17. Seth Moulton

Fourth Tier: Long Shots.

18. Andrew Yang

19. Steve Bullock

20. Wayne Masson

21. Marianne Wiliamson

22. Mike Gravel

I debated leavin him off, because he's not really running. But he's indulging his grandchildren in letting them run a social media campaign in his name. What a country.

Albert Speer: His Battle with Truth by Gitta Sereny
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

This book is a tough slog, but well worth the effort. The writing is meticulous and contains all the information that one would expect from a biography of Speer, but its purpose is both more narrow and more profound than telling the story of one life.

This book is about a man who facilitated the greatest atrocities of the last century. He alone among Hitler's inner circle owned up to being party to a henious crime. But he couldn't quite commit to living in the full truth of what he knew.

Speer was spared the noose at Nuremberg because there wasn't enough evidence to prove that he knew about the murder of six million Jews. He was sentenced to and served 20 years at Spandau for the us of slave labor on his construction projects. That leniency may have been influenced by his decison to countermand Hitler's orders to implement a scorched earth policy as the allies advanced on Berlin. That decision saved many lives and the post-war miracle of West Germany's recovery might not have happened if he didn't take those steps. But that's the second most significant storyline of Speer's life.

Sereny goes to great lengths to prove how it was almost certain that Speer knew that Jews were being murdered on an industrial scale. Speer concedes that he could have known and even should have known, but he strenously denied active knowledge of the final solution.

What's really something about the story is that Speer managed to alienate almost everyone with his stances. It's difficult for most to accept his quasi-denial of knowledge aforethought of the Holocaust. It was equally difficult for Germans of his class and generation to accept Speer's admission that he should have done more to prevent Hitler's crimes.

Although he strenously avoided condeming the German people with Hitler's crimes, he was able to acknowledge that as part of the senior leadership of Nazi Germany, he shared in the collective guilt of those crimes.

There are lots of great anecdotes about his fellow prisoners at Spandau and the unimaginable difficulties of his family. But the narrative always comes back to the myster of what Speer knew and when he knew it. And the post script puts this enormous life into very human context.



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2020 Democratic Field, Take 3

I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.

This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates.  If thier standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis.  Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.

Tip of the 40 ounce to Sherrod Brown, who decided to sit this race out and hope for a VP call.

Five That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar. 
2. Kamala Harris  
3. Beto O'Rourke 
The reaction to his launch on liberal social media was surprisingly negative. But he has talent and he will win find his feet and be a force.
4. Elizabeth Warren  
She has put forth the most specific and substantive policy ideas so far.
5. Chris Murphy
Seems less likely to run.

Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
6. Kristin Gillibrand 
Uninspiring so far, which is why I moved her down to the second tier of my personal choices.
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Joe Biden (9)
10. Mitch Landrieu
11. Tim Ryan
12. John Hickenlooper
13. Jay Inslee
14. Julian Castro (Unranked)

Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
15.  Andrew Cuomo 
16. Terry McAuliffe 
17.  Corey Booker 
18. Pete Buttigieg 
He had a good cable TV roll out on CNN and raised 600K. I still think he's running solely to raise his profile, but it's worth acknowledging that he's already done that, a bit.

Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
19.  Bernie Sanders (21)
20.  Tom Steyer
21. The Field of Dumb Celebrities

One WHAT THE FUCK?
22. Tulsi Gabbard.  (Unranked)

II.  The 2020 Hourse Race.

The Top Tier Candidates.

1. Bernie Sanders  16%/60%

2. Joe Biden   14%/70%

3. Kamala Harris 14%/65%

4. Elizabeth Warren 11%/60%

5. Corey Booker 6%/50%

Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps

6. Beto O'Rourke  9%/70%

7. Amy Klobuchar 9%/70% To win, you have to run. That's why she leap frogged Beto.

Third Tier: Plausible But Flawd.

8. Kristin Gillibrand 3%/57%

9. Andrew Cuomo 1%/60%

10. Terry McCauliffe 1%/60%

11. Chris Murphy 1%/65%.

Fourth Tier: Long Shots.

If Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, John Delaney  or Eric Swaell somehow get through this crowded field, then they possess political skills of formidable depth and would be the favorite to win against Trump.  

If Buttigieg, Gabbard or Some Dumb Celebrity is the nominee, Trump will probably win.

2020 Democratic Field, Take Two

The 2020 race is officially underway. Most of the major candidates have announced and have begun to hire staff. So it's time to update my power rankings.

I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.

This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates.  If thier standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis.  Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.

But first, a quick word about two candidates that have already left this race: Los Angelas Mayor Eric Garcetti was number 15 on my first list and Starbucks billioniare of means Howard Schultz was number 21.  Gargetti merely declined to enter a crowded field. But Schultz decided to act on some terrible advice and test the waters of an independent self-financed campaign that is probably going to be remembered as the most awful abortive campaign for president of all time. Or at least for all of 2020.

Six That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar. 
I think her announcement in the Minnesota snow was great. And the stories aboout her being a demanding boss only make think she's qualified to do the job.
2. Kamala Harris (3). 
A very strong start with solid telivised appearances.
3. Beto O'Rourke (2)
He's starting to look a little not-quite ready for this race. That dental chair gimmick was dumb.
4. Elizabeth Warren 
So far, she's the most willing to throw mud back at the incumbent. I don't think that hurts her for now.
5. Chris Murphy
Seems less likely to run.
6. Kristin Gillibrand
She's running a polite and cautious race so far.   

Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
7. Sherrod Brown (10)
He's impressed me so far. Much more pragmatic than I expected him to be. I'm starting to think his appeal is broad enough to win.
8. Steve Bullock (7)
9. Joe Biden (8)
I'm slightly surprised that he hasn't announced yet but with his name recognition, he can afford to wait longer than most others.
10. Mitch Landrieu
11. Michael Blomberg
12. Tim Ryan
13. John Hickenlooper
14. Jay Inslee
15. Julian Castro (Unranked)
He was my biggest oversight in the first post. He has a decent resume and is the only Latino candidate in the field, which might give him a certain base in the primary electorate. But I think most Democrats know that they don't want to be running around Florida with "CASTRO 2020" signs next fall.
16. Eric Holder

Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
17.  Andrew Cuomo (18)
18. Terry McAuliffe (17)
A bad fortnight for the Virginia Democratic party.
19.  Corey Booker (20)
Done well so far but I still think he's a bit of a phoney.
20. Pete Buttigieg (19)
His is a vanity campaign.

Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
21.  Bernie Sanders (21)
22.  Tom Steyer
He has said that he will not run, but I can see him changing his mind because she seems to think this whole enterprise is a lark.
23. The Field of Dumb Celebrities
We have an official entrant in this category! Marianne Wiliamson. She's an author and self-help guru, which is convinient, because she's goin to need plenty of self-help to get over this humiliating process.

One WHAT THE FUCK?
24. Tulsi Gabbard.  (Unranked)
I think this candidacy is absolutely nuts. She genuinely feels like an agent of chaos. And I still have not seen so much as a single Tweet supporting her run. I'm suspicious even of her good intentions. But I won't elaborate on that for now, because I'm hoping she just goes away.

II.  The 2020 Hourse Race.

This is where I handicap the race. If a candidate's place has moved, I put their previous ranking in parenthesis.  The two percentages next to each candidate stand for their chances of being the nominee and of beating Trump if they are the nominee.

There's very little movement here because nothing has happened to shift the fundamentals of the race-the Democrats are favored to win but the field for their nomination is wide open.

The Top Tier Candidates.

1. Bernie Sanders  16%/60%

2. Joe Biden   14%/70%

3. Kamala Harris 14%/65%

4. Elizabeth Warren 11%/60%

5. Corey Booker 6%/50%

Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps

6. Amy Klobuchar 9%/70% To win, you have to run. That's why she leap frogged Beto.

7. Beto O'Rourke  9%/70%

8. Sherrod Brown  9%/70%.

Third Tier: Plausible But Flawd.

9. Michael Bloomberg 3%/58%

10. Kristin Gillibrand 3%/57%

11. Eric Holder 1%/60%

12. Andrew Cuomo 1%/60%

13. Terry McCauliffe 1%/60%

14. Chris Murphy 1%/65%.

Fourth Tier: Long Shots.

If Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, John Delaney  or Eric Swaell somehow get through this crowded field, then they possess political skills of formidable depth and would be the favorite to win against Trump.  

If Buttigieg, Gabbard or Some Dumb Celebrity is the nominee, Trump will probably win.

My Mariano Rivera Story

During the first weekend of June, 2003, my Yankees came to the North Side of Chicago for the first time since the 1938 World Series. It was a tough ticket to get.  But the Friday game was delayed over an hour by rain, so I got on the Red Line and hoped for the best. I went to the Day of Game window and got lucky. Apparently some folks decided to skip the game on account of rain. I wound up with a seat in Aisle 36, ten rows behind the Yankees bullpen.

The first sight of a Yankees squad in Road Greys at Wrigley since the last year of Lou Gehrig's career began with Derek Jeter popping out of the visitor's dugout.  There was no batting practicethat day,  but the skys parted and all was clear before the first pitch. It was a lovely day for baseball after all.

The Yankees got out to a 5-0 lead early. David damn Wells hit a double! (Full disclosure-I was in line for a beer and watched that play on the TV above the right field line concession stand.)

Mariano Rivera was known to take naps during the early innings of a game. He liked to take the mound when he was at his peak-about an hour after the clubhouse boys woke him. In about the sixth inning he came out to join his bulpen mates. It didn't look like he would be needed that day, but stranger things have happened.

A little boy of about seven was sitting in the row in front of me with his dad. His dad pointed out Rivera to him and told him about what a special player he was. In between innings, the boy ran down to the famous brick wall with a small disposable camera. Mariano noticed him and smiled as the child line up his photograph.  The kid ran back to his dad and was full of excitement. "That's great," the dad said. "Maybe next innning you can get his autograph.

After the next half inning, the boy ran back down with a ball and pen in hand. Mariano saw him again, but politely explained that he wasn't allowed to sign autographs during the game.  "Come down after the last out of the game. I'll sign it then."

The score at the time was five to two. David Wells was in command of all his stuff.  But then in the bottom of the eight inning, Corey Patterson hit a solo home run to tighten up the game. Antonio Asuna came in to get the last out of the inning, and Mariano began to warm up in earnest. He might just be needed after all.

The Yankees did not score in the top of the 9th, so Joe Torre brought in his big gun for the bottom half of the inning.  Mariano was not perfect that day. He gave up two singles, but didn't allow a run. He Sop Choi struck out for the final out of the game. Final Score, Yankees 5, Cubs 3.

The Yankees dugout emptied and all the players casually slapped high fives in single-file. As the brief celebration ended, the players headed into to the clubhouse by way of the dugout.  The boy was holding out hope for an autograph. The father of this kid was trying to let his son down easy. "Look, Mr. Rivera didn't know that he would be pitching when he promised to sign your ball." The kid looked devastated. I never wanted an autograph, even as a child trying to get Don Mattingly's attention, as I wanted this kid to get Mariano Rivera's signature. But it seemed not to be.

We all watched the Yankees file towards their dugout. Except one. Mariano Rivera, instead of heading for the dugout steps, turned toward right field and slowly walked out toward the bullpen. For a second I worried that he was just going to get his jacket or sunflower sseeds. But no, he was headed straight for the little kid in Aisle 36, Row 9.

When he got out by us, he pointed right at the kid and told him to come down to the railing. Mariano took the ball, signed his name on it and flipped it back to him.  The boy ran back to his father, filled with joy.

A few grown ups started yelling for Mo to sign their stuff. He ignored them and trotted back to the dugout. More than one of the grown ups called him a name or two.  They didn't know the whole story.

I've been a Yankees fan for over 40 yers. I can recite the name and statistics of my favorite players. I have their succession memorized: first Reggie Jackson, then Graig Nettles, followed by Don Mattingly, followed by Bernie Williams, followed by Mariano Rivera and then, for one year only, Derek Jeter. After that it's a little hazy. Favorite players are less important to adults. I am only a few years younger than Mariano Rivera. But when I heard the news today that he is the first unanimously chosen member of the baseball Hall of Fame, I got choked up.

The indelible image of Mariano Rivera is him trotting through the Bronx night while "Enter Sandman" plays over The Staidum's sound system, so he could put out a proverbial fire from the mound. But my strongest memory of  him will always be him calmly walking down the right field line of the Friendly Confines with "Go Cubs Go" playing, so he could keep a promise to a kid in the stands.

The last 42 is the first 100. Congratulations, Mo.