UUntitled Reaction to the Walking Dead Season 7 Premiere

This post contains spoilers for the Walking Dead's Season Seven Premiere.

This post is untitled because I don't want to spoil the Episode for People on the West Coast. It's title would be "When You Cheat Your Audience, You Declare a War You Cannot Win."

We all knew that season six was going to end with Negan braining someone with Lucille. The only reason to watch that episode was to find out who.  The producers decided to cheat the audience of that moment because they knew the "Who Shot J.R.?" factor would create a lot of buzz.  But it was a cheat of the fans that was destined to fail for two reasons. The first reason is that the deaths were inevitably going to leak in the age of social media and camera phones.  And leak they did. In fact, good portions of the script were out there for the past week.  Once that cat was out of the bag, the episode was doomed to failure because the melodramatic emotion of the cast members could never play straight without the suspense or shock factor of the deaths.

This cheat was especially bad because they had to know that lots of super devoted fans would obsess on figuring out who the kills were. The most convincing case based on the evidence was for Michonne.  The finale contained several POV shots.  The first few were all from Michonne's perspective.  The last one was from the victim's. If you respect the audience, you would keep that commitment.  And I will admit that even as the show started, I hoped it would be Michonne. Michonne is one of the best characters in the show but the integrity of the show required her death. I was really hoping to not be cheated. I hoped the leaks were disinformation. That would have really been something.

You put your audience into suspense, those who really care enough are going to find a way to end the suspense. So some of those devoted fans scoped out the shooting locations and figured out who was missing. Then someone put their mitts on a script and shared its contents online.  I normally avoid spoilers because I'd rather enjoy a show than play "I've got a secret" with its creators. But I had no hesitation in reading these spoilers and watching the associated YouTube videos.  If you don't respect me enough to present an honest work of art, I do not feel bound by the normal rules of fandom. And I'm obviously not along.

Execution.
To be fair, the episode could have been worse.  My initial expectation was that Lucille's victim would be Abraham.  He's important enough for the other characters to care about but not so important that his absence would undermine the show. Glenn is a great character, so his death upped the stakes considerably. But the moment was so anticlimactic that I actually chuckled at the detail, meant to be shocking. that his eye was hanging loose from the socket. I had a similar reaction to Carol shooting Lizzy in the back of the head while she looked at the flowers.  This show overestimates its emotional range.

The storyline of Negan feeling the need to break Rick made sense. And Jeffrey Dean Morgan seems capable of carrying the story forward as a villain with the right mix of pathos and mischief. That's very encouraging.

If I could give one note to the creators going forward, it would be to shift away from the relentlessly dark tone toward something more constructive and at least occasionally amusing. They went all in on making Negan's arrival frightening.  They need to step in the other direction for a bit.

AMC's lousy spin off, Fear The Walking Dead saw its ratings plummet this year and I think the cliffhanger was part of that. It was probably the first tangible fallout from mistreating the mother ship's audience so blatantly.  But none of this will immediately impact the show.  Tonight's ratings will be huge and people will stick with the show for the rest of this season.  If they follow the comic books, season eight should contain some great action that might give the show a revival.

AMC needs this show and the cash it generates. There are enough die hard fans that it will go for at least another four seasons. I"m not giving up on it, because the premise remains fascinating and there are still a handful of characters that I feel invested with. But the show's best moment probably passed, and there is now one fewer death that had the potential to be truly shocking.  Damn shame they ruined that moment by provoking their fans.

What Happens Next.

Keeping Darryl as a hostage was a good wrinkle and I am looking forward to what happens between him and Dwight.  The Kingdom shoul introduce a handful of new characters and at least the tiger will be cool. The coming arc is pretty obvious: Rick and his people will rebuild and reform. We've seen that before, but never from such a low starting point.

So yes, I'm still on board. I might even blog about the mid season finale or some other milestone. But if Rick and the gang looked down, they would probably see a dorsal fin sticking out of the water.

Eenie Meenie Miney Blow (TWD Season Six Finale Reaction)

First of all, I hate this gimmick.  It's an insult to the audience. Who shot J.R. was a great gimmick. That was 30 years ago.  Now we expect a story to be told.  And who the hell wants to spend the summer watching trailers of Father Gabriel talking to Spencer. There are three huge problems with this cliff-hanger. One is that it's absurd to think that Negan could resp ond to the loss of 50 of his men by only killing one person.  Secondly, people will leak who was spotted on the set during the summer. And the biggest problem is that  by process of elimination, there's not a lot of suspense in who Negan picked.

My premise is simple. Negan needs to show the group and the audience that he is a bad ass. That leaves women and children out.  So Carl, Maggie, Michonne, Sasha and Rosita are out. That leaves six possibilities.  Eugene and Aaron just don't look that scary so I'll leave them out.  That leaves 4 possibilities:


1.  Rick.  He is safe. Not because he's the lead character but because if I'm Negan, I absolutely want this imbecile to be in charge of  my biggest threat.  I thought he was dumb all season but tonight he really outdid himself. He managed to look genuinely surprised that the Saviors kept turning up at all the dead ends.  And then he really seemed to think he could carry Maggie through those woods without getting caught.  Dumbass.

2.  Darryl.  Also safe. AMC gave him a reality show which is probably there way to pay him what he's worth to the network while locking down the female demographic over the summer.

3.  Glenn.  Well if they were going to repeat the comic story, then they probably would have told us that tonight.

4. Abraham.  He looks and is tough. He was present for almost all of the Savior deaths and he puffed out his chest as if to volunteer for the task.  The death of any of the other three characters would have been a big deal.  People would have talked about it more than the cliffhanger. Abraham? Not so much.

So I think Abraham is the victim.  But don't worry about waiting six months to find out.  Someone will spot him with or without that mustache by then.  Which is why this cliff hanger was dumb.

Another Complaint.

The Morgan and Carol story line was not well managed this season.  Tonight it became obvious that they were building to put Morgan in a situation where he has to kill someone.  It was a cop out to make the choice so simple.  Of course he shot the man who was about to shoot an innocent woman laying on the floor defenseless.  If they wanted to make this a bigger deal for Morgan, they should have made it a closer call. Even Eastman the cheesemaker told Morgan that he would not let Morgan kill him.  So yes, killing to prevent a different killing is moral. That's the first day of Intro to Moral philosophy. This show really should be more complex by now.

One Silver Lining.

But first, one more complaint. ;-)  Think about the last 2 episodes.  What was advanced in terms of story?  I guess Carol and Morgan had some resolution. But apart from that all we built up to was seeing Negan. Everyone knew that Negan was coming. So this was 2 and a half hours of air time to tell us nothing we didn't already know.

But what an entrance! Jeffrey Dean Morgan was great.  Ten minutes of monologue building to a bullshit cliffhanger.  But he kept it all fresh, fascinating and terrifying.  This peace of casting might even be the makeup we need for the Governor.  So as mad as I am by the finale, I'm already looking forward to Season Seven.  So my protests are meaningless in the marketplace.

Early Thoughts on Season 7.

The creators have put themselves in a bind for how to promote this season.  I think Morgan and Carol will wing up in a place called the Kingdom which will probably take up an episode or two but it's hard to say for sure what the central conflict will be.   I think the season will be political.  Rick will be plotting a war to kill Negan but he won't have the manpower to make that happen. Maggie and Michonne will be instrumental in that political process, as will Jesus and the people at the Kingdom.

But I really hope we get some good deaths. It's crazy that we went an entire season without losing anyone that we really care about. Doctor Denise had potential but she didn't get to make much of an impression. I could care less about Jesse and her idiot children.

So next year I'm hoping there's death and a tiger.   Google it.

Oh yeah...Zombies (The Walking Dead Season Six Finale.)

I used to post about The Walking Dead with some frequency.  I still watch and enjoy the show but I haven't taken the tie to write a post since November when only a few hours of the current season had aired. That post was called "All Tactics, No Strategy" and lamented the short-sighted nature of Rick's leadership.  This season has done nothing to change my mind on that point.

I'm writing this with just over one hour to go before the season six finale begins. This episode is the most highly anticipated because it is expected to mirror the events of the 100th episode of the Comic Book.  (Comic Spoilers ahead....)  In that issue, Negan arrives and beats Glenn to death with a baseball bat.  Ever since Glenn's bogus near-death experience in the beginning of this season a lot of folks have wondered if the TV show would match that story line exactly.  It certainly might.  But I hope it doesn't because I have come to conclude that for the good of the group, and the show, Rick should die tonight.

Let me state upfront that I think this is very unlikely.  The show is still a hero's journey and Rick is the hero.  He is who we met in the first cold open. This is a Western and he is the sheriff.  Killing him would be a monumental leap of storytelling that probably means the actor made unreasonable salary demands to go forward.  But if they go this route, then our merry band of survivors will be better off.

This season has been entertaining.  The production values are still remarkable for a cable TV show and the acting is fine even when the writing is uneven.  But this is the first season where it felt like the producers were hoarding the characters we care about.  No one of importance has died.  (Sorry Jesse and Dr. Denise, but you know it's true. The coolest character to die was probably the leader of the Wolves and I wouldn't put him in the Top 25 of characters the show has given us.)

So tonight they either go big or leave the audience feeling gypped. I think one of 4 major characters has to die tonight or else the show will feel lost its ability to make us feel like everyone is vulnerable. Those 4 characters are the only adults left from the first season: Rick, Darryl, Carol and Glenn. I will consider each in turn.

1.  Rick is an imbecile.  Don't believe me?  Let's review ever decision he has made since smoking the cannibals in Father Gabriel's church.

a.  Treat the Alexandrians like idiots.  What did that gain anyone?
b.  Lead 30,000 Walkers past the gates of Alexandria on foot.  What could possibly go wrong?
c.  Decide to walk a baby through a giant herd of zombies only to remember halfway through that babies cry.  How did that work out for Jesse?
d.  Kill 50 of Negna's men in return for a few weeks of rations from the Hilltop.
e.  Kill the guy claiming to be Negan before Carol and Maggie can tell him that the guy is lying. Gee, maybe that guy had some valuable intel on the Saviors.  But we'll never know, will we?
f.  Lounge around eating apples while bragging about how easy it will be to kill whoever is left of the group you have violently attacked on three separate occasions.
g.  Let 7 of your best fighters go chase Carol while Negan is preparing to storm your gates.  Tonight we'll find out just how expensive that stupidity was.

2.  Darryl would hurt the show too much.  If he dies it is because the actor got tired of the terrible plot lines and I will wish him well.   Also, the ratings will drop like a rock next season.

3. Carol is the obvious favorite of the writers. She is the best actress in the company and her story line has been compelling.  I think she escaped for a reason last week and I don't expect her to return in time to save anyone tonight.  We'll see her, but it will be next year and I think her story will take a big new turn that we don't see coming.

4.  Glenn.  Well, they are relying on the Comic Books more and more.  He is a fan favorite and his death would shock the audience, even those who expect it to come.  It is the safe choice in some ways but I think he will leave a hole in the show that won't be easily plugged.

One long shot possibility is killing Michonne or Maggie.  The audience cares enough about them but I don't think either character is ready to go.  The cruel thing to do to Maggie would be to kill Glenn and have her miscarry.  That seems to cruel.  Little Herschel ought to be here next year.

Death Probabilities tonight:  Glenn 60%, Darryl 25%, Rick 10%, Carol 3%.  Maggie & Michoone 1% each

Minor Deaths.

I think we'll get at least one B player death tonight.  Abraham would be the obvious choice. (In the comics he died 2 issues before tonight.)  Tara and/or Heath might get killed.  (Apparently the actor who plays Heath is on a different show starting this fall.)   Rosita, Sasha and Aaron would all be losses worth mentioning.

They will probably throw in a 3rd rate player too.  Tobin, Spencer, etc.  Someone that people will say "Oh that guy too, huh?"  Look for this in the 2nd act.


Scoreboard.
The biggest storytelling challenge is to make Negan the bad guy.  Consider the death toll so far:

Darryl killed 9 guys with the grenade launcher. Rick murdered 25 people in their sleep at the satellite compound.  Carol and Maggie killed 4 more at the slaughterhouse, then lured another 10 to join them in death. And Darryl, Abraham and Rosita killed at least 2 more by the rail road tracks.  That's 50 dead against only poor Doctor Denise.

Negan's going to have to make quite an impression tonight to make us feel bad about whatever it is he does to Rick's group.  Maybe killing Rick is the wrong way to go, thematically.  After all, Rick deserves to die.

Nothing Finale About It (The Walking Dead Season 6 Midseason Finale)

                                       This is a much better breakdown of TWD than I will ever write.

I am of two minds toward this episode. On the one hand, it a pretty tense and well-directed episode. The show runners also deserve some credit for tying something different this season.  Instead of using the Midseason finale to wrap up a bunch of loose ends they merely pushed the action forward and left almost everything in doubt.  But there are (at least) three significant problems with the episode.

A. Economy and Conservation of Characters.  This is probably a budgetary issue but I notice that as the seasons progress and the cast grows incrementally, they do not use some characters in episodes where they should be playing a significant role.  Last night's episode should have included Heath and Aaron, but they did not appear.  I guess the producers saved sizable checks in the process, but it does create some holes in the plot.  They are supposed to be good and trusted fighters, leaders of the new community. Presumably they were somewhere doing something to deal with this threat but we won't find out until February.

As for conservation of characters, I realize that the show is now committed to keeping the key characters alive for long enough that each of their deaths has meaning.  Previous midseason finales brought the deaths of Sophia, Oscar, Hershel & the Governor, & Beth respectively. I guess Deanna had more screen time and lines than Oscar ever got, but I actually felt more sadness when he died during the raid on Woodbury than when Deanna died last night.

B. The Wolf Fight Was Lame.
This is probably a direct result of the need to conserve characters but when Morgan knocked out Carol and then the Wolf knocked out Morgan, all I could think of was one of those lame WWE brawls where the referee lays around pretending to be unconscious while the bad guy gets away with some cheap shot on the good guy. And the Wolf's decision to no kill anyone rang false to, at least superficially. But there was one line in the scene that might be setting up something real.  (This will not justify why Tara, Rosita and Eugen stood staring at the door for several seconds instead of running to retrieve the 9MM and machete left lying on the floor next to Carol and Morgan.)

Going in to last night, I assumed that Carol or Morgan would not survive the episode. I know think they will both make it through this exchange and that the next story arc might involve Morgan bringing Carol back from the brink of insanity.  This would explain why they created the silly controversy over whether Morgan should stay or not. Even if he won't kill humans, he's a hell of a lot more useful than Father Gabriel, for instance. He will kill more than enough Walkers and train enough people in Akido to earn his gruel and shelter.

All of the social media response focused on how reckless Morgan was but I would argue that it was Carol who was being rash. There was no reason to have that fight during the siege. Carol knows she would have the support of the group to kill that Wolf after the hoard passes by. There's not much chance of him doing any damage in the interim.  She wasn't being cautious, she was being impetuous and Morgan merely stood by his principles.

C. This Whole Season is Rick's Fault.

I have to credit the Onion's AV Club for reminding me of this but the whole damn season's problems are Rick's fault. It was his stupid idea to lead the Walkers away from the quarry and slow march them 20 miles away. There were much smarter ways to deal with the problem.  Fire comes to mind, but even thinning the crowd with sniper fire makes more sense than trying to lead that entire herd up a two-lane highway for a day and a half.  And oh yeah, Rick ran back to Alexandria with a couple hundred Walkers on his heels.  Why the hell didn't he use the Guts trick earlier?  Or, as this Blog has argued earlier, make some effort to thin the herd at the walls with sling shots, rocks, arrows, etc.

Rick's biggest failure of leadership is to not implement all of the "Best Practices" he should have learned from other survivors. Alexandria should have Walker Pits, pikes outside the main gate, rats in wheeled cages, remote noise makers, and most importantly that sewer line that Aaron knows about should have been cleared out by now.  It's time to admit that Rick has balls but he's not very bright. Maybe Michonne needs to do more of the thinking going forward.  And that leads me to the good things about last night's episode.

1. Michonne finally has a story arc that doesn't involve killing people.
Michonne may be the most under-utilized character in the show.  Rewatching season three was almost painful to see how brooding she was for the first entire season. When they began to let her lighten up, she became much more likable but Deanna is right: she needs a purpose in life. I was really hoping that she and Rick would become a couple but they seem to have decided to avoid the Moonlighting Trap there.  So maybe Heath will be the lucky guy in the coming episodes. That's probably bad for his survival chances but it would be nice if Michonne got to show a softer side.

2. The Wolf May Do Something Human.

The Wolf tells Dr. Denise "you're what I like about people" just before taking her hostage.  I think this may be setting the stage for him to do something human. Maybe he will lead her through the hoard and decide to save her life at the last second.  He seemed to like her and maybe the hour spent listening to Morgan's story did some good.  I don't know why, but I think this story will end heroically.

3. The Saviors Will Amp Things Up.
The best scene last night was not part of the episode. The 2 minute prologue of episode nine set up what happens next to Darryl, Abraham and Sasha.  They are pulled over by a gaggle of nine bikers who demand possession of their weapons as a tax for Negan.

So far the best bad guys have not lasted very long. Shane was only really bad for one episode. Gareth was in three episodes. Joe's group was in two.  Only the Governor got a full season and a half of story time. And he was written so inconsistently that those episodes do not hold up well in hindsight. Negan seems likely to be a better villain, because he will be both ruthless and rational.

The exchange with Darryl, Abraham and Sasha is telling. Those bikers are bad ass, but they are more toll collectors than headhunters. It's pretty clear however that the penalty for not paying the tax is very heavy.

Predictions:

I don't know how the interaction will go but there's no way Darryl, Abraham and Sasha go without a fight. And there's no way that Darryl doesn' end up riding one of those bikes back to Alexandria. Maybe that's the trade off for giving up the truck and their weapons.

Consider the language used by the other saviors in Chapter six. The Saviors may be a mafia, but that implies a certain amount of exchange. Protection for extortion money. Of course the nitty gritty is much dirtier than that, but I don't think Negan's goal is to kill everyone in his way. He would rather tax them and benefit from their labor.  That has real potential to feed even better story lines. I can't wait to see how The Walking Dead screws it up.

More Specific.

- Glenn and Enid will be instrumental in saving the day. Glenn and Maggie will adopt her.
- Abraham will either die in Episode 9 or Episode 16.
- One but not both of Jesse's idiot sons will die in episode 9.
- Father Gabriel will do something heroic in episode 9, perhaps to save Judith.
- Rosita will not survive season six.
- There will be a point in the second half of the season where love is all around us. Rick and Jesse, Michonne & Heath, Glen & Maggie of course, Carl and Enid, maybe Carol and Morgan.  At some point the group is going to commit to living, and that means loving. Then it will all go to shit.

No Way Out (The Walking Dead Season Six Midseason Finale Predictions)

                                 Video Contains Comic Spoilers for the Current TV story line

A couple weeks ago I resumed watching old episodes of The Walking Dead on Netflix. I watched the finale of the first season and every episode of seasons two and three.  So before talking about tonight's midseason finale, I want to offer a little perspective on the series as a whole.

Much like with The Wire, Season 2 of the Walking Dead is its most divisive. There is less action, by far than any other season and lots of people complained about the slow pacing and rustic setting of the season.  But watching it now, with the benefit of what creative decisions would be made in the future was a striking experience. Put simply, the show was a lot better than. It was a show about intelligent characters adjusting to a new reality Their motivations were consistent and the emotional payoffs were big, because they were believable moments. The heart of the story was a love triangle, and we all knew who to root for. It all culminated in a somewhat absurd shootout at the farm, but not even that could take away from the season-long story arcs. It was a much better show then.

Season three brings a lot of changes, and most of them hurt the show.  The biggest problem was the casting of David Morrissey as the Governor.  He just was not right for the part. His accent is too forced and his motivations are all over the place. I think the writers were striving to make him complicated, but they wound up with a character that was merely inconsistent. 

The central story of season three is not a failure. The battle with Woodbury sets up a nice arc about the need to stay civilized in face of the world's brutality.  Michael Rooker's performance as Merle Dixon almost makes up for the poor casting choice for the Governor. But almost every episode is marred by one of our heroes doing something truly stupid and Andrew Lincoln loses his grip on the Rick Grimes character after Laurie's passing. Lincoln plays a good Rick, but that level of madness is just outside of his range, and those scenes are less haunting than they should be. 

The other huge change is the decision to stop killing major characters. At the end of the 4th episode of season three, Rick's group is down to just eight people: Rick, Darryl, Glenn, Maggie, Herschel, Beth, Carol and brand newborn Judith. In the first 23 episodes of this show, there was a real sense that almost any character could die. In the fifty episodes since, only 2 of those 8 have died and at leas one of them (Beth) was a very minor character. (Andrea was still alive but presumed dead by the group. The group had not yet met Michonne.)

Most of the deaths since season three episode four have been either bad guys or glorified red shirts.  A few others, like Bob and Tyrese were developed just enough to give their passing some meaning. But the show has clearly made the decision to conserve the original group for as long as possible, and that's probably a good business decision. The other thing that stands out when you watch the old seasons and episodes is that the show works best when it centers on the characters we care about. For me those are, in rough order: Darryl, Rick, Glenn, Maggie, and Michonne. Of the characters introduced since Seas.3/Episode 4, only Aaron seems interesting enough to attain that status. 

The Glenn story line from season six is most emblematic of this problem.  They led us to believe he was dead and then kept us in suspense about it for three full episodes, only to reveal that he was alive after all. In the meantime we learned that he's going to be a father and last week he seemed to take the first steps towards adopting Enid. This is all meant to up the stakes in his story line going forward. We like Glenn and that makes the show much better.

Now to the matter at hand. Tonight's midseason finale. At least three story lines will be tied up tonight: the breach of the Alexandria walls, the Wolf that Morgan spared in episode two, and the return to town of Darryl, Sasha and Abraham.  (Conveniently with a RPG launcher.)

The Midesason Finale Predictions.

A The Wolf.  The one rule of this show is that if someone's not included in the "In Memorium" segment of the Talking Dead, than he or she is not dead. And if someone is kept alive when they should be dead, that decision will comeback to get someone killed. The simple story line would be to have the Wolf kill Morgan, but I think the show runners have bigger things in store for Morgan this season.  

At the start of this season Scott M, Gimple described Carol as the safest character on the show. He explained that this was because she has become so valuable to the group and so capable as a fighter. But I think this was one of his many misdirects. I think the Wolf will Carol tonight and I think there will be some tie in with Jesse's younger son. Maybe she will die trying to save him in some way. Carol seems less necessary to the story now that Jesse appears well positioned to be both surrogate mother to Judith and a fledgling killing machine.

B. The Breach of the Walls. The worst aspect of this show is how stupid the main characters are whenever the show needs them to be. For the last 2 episodes they have sat passively by as a herd of zombies gathers at the walls. No effort made to thin the herd at all.  This is more than 2 years into the apocolypse. By now they should have some strategies for dealing with this. Consider: big knifes stuck to the end of long sticks, sling shots, Morgan's rat cages on wheels, and most obvious of all, Rosita using a gun with a silencer. There should have been an attempt to kill as many walkers as possible. Every dead walker is one less way to die and it's utterly crazy that our heroes have not figured this out yet. But no, for dramatic effect we have to believe that Rick and Deanna and Carl and Rosita were all too stupid to do any of that. And now Alexandria's walls have been over run.

So who dies at the hands of the hoard?  Obviously a couple Alexandrians will die. Maybe Rosita too if they are clearing the way for an Abraham/Sasha romance later this season. Obviously this chaos is going to play into the Wolf's story line. It seems inevitable that he will get someone killed and probably equally inevitable that he will die too.

They certainly planted the seed that Jesse's older son wants to kill Carl. If they stick to the comic book, that will not happen but Carl may wind up wounded. That could set up some awkward moments between Rick and Jesse. 

Death Prediction Probabilities for Tonight's Episode:

(Besides the obligatory Alexandrian red shirt or two)

1. The Remaining Wolf: 95%

2. Carol  60%

3. Jesse's Older Son: 55%

4. Jesse's Younger Son: 55%

5. Rosita 40%

6. Morgan 30%

7. Tara 25%

8. Abraham 20%

9. Deanna: 15%

10. Deanna's Remaining son: 10%
11. Father Gabriel 5% (He is beyond useless on this show, but we must have at least one actor from The Wire in the cast.)
12. Tara's girlfriend the Doctor 3%. (I don't think they hired an actress of her quality just to get one extremely chaste kiss on the lips. Plus, she will have to treat whoever gets wounded tonight.)

Safe: Rick, Darryl, Carl, Michonne, Judith & Eugene. (Believe it or not Eugene becomes an important character over time.)

The one nice moment we are sure to get is Maggie being reunited with Glenn. Of course it will probably happen 10 seconds before Carol or someone else we care about dies.

The Rest of the Season:

The second half of the season will focus one new groups, It has been widely leaked that the character of Paul Monroe (aka "Jesus") will appear in the second half of the season. Last week Darryl ran afoul of Dwight, who in the comic books is part of the group known as "The Saviors". And the biggest leak of all is that the part of Negan has been cast for the season finale. 

So tonight's episode will probably leave Alexandria in a certain amount of chaos. The group may patch the fence and move back in but it seems likely that they will have to seek refuge elsewhere. I think it's possible that Enid has connections elsewhere, probably on Hilltop. 

But I'll speculate more on that sometime between now and February.  As frustrating as this show can be, it still keeps me hooked.  The premise is just that cool.

All Tactics, No Strategy (The Walking Dead Season Six, so far)

This post refers to events that transpire through the first five episodes of season six. If you don't want those episodes to be spoiled, stop reading.

I have written pretty long preview posts before each half-season of the previous two seasons. This year I didn't think there was enough to talk about so I skipped it.  Six seasons in, I still find myself looking forward to and enjoying every episode. But the show remains very frustrating because of its predictability and refusal to focus on the big picture of this new world the show has created for us.  The characters seems to be doomed to an endless cycle of moving form one false oasis to the next for the foreseeable future.   Five episodes in the ratings have slipped for the first time in the show's history but they remain sky high for the world of basic cable. And there is no reason to think that AMC will not continue to milk this Golden Goose for as long as its audience are big enough to justify the special effects budget.

This season is about part for the course.  Each episode is entertaining and suspenseful in the moment, and frustrating and stupid upon further reflection.  Here are my thoughts on each episode in the season so far:

1. First Time Again.  The season premiere was entertaining and I liked the way they told a bifurcated story that covered a lot of exposition without sacrificing much action. But it was also disappointing when you step back and think about how stupid Rick's plan was.  The Walkers were trapped in a quarry.  The thing to do was seal off the gap between the two 18 wheelers and then light all the Walkers on fire.  There are a variety of ways to do that, but enough flame tipped arrows from Darryl would have eventually done the trick.  Instead they decided to march 30,000 zombies down the road for a day's shamble and hope for the best.  Dumb, dumb, dumb. Grade: B+

2. JSS.  Easily the best episode so far.  They had just lulled me into thinking this was going to be a filler episode about the women folk of Alexandria when the Wolves attacked.  The action was great and the combat was very suspensefull.  I also liked the Enid story line.  Her back story was written sparsely, which is something the show should do more often. And her interactions with Carl felt genuine. My theory on her is that she has some kind of affiliation with a group outside the walls but I do not think it is the Wolves.  She doesn't have a W carved on her forehead for one thing and I think we've learned that the Wolves are some kind of whacky death cult.  Enid is not that.  But she apparently started to tell Carl some kind of secret about how "we" got to Alexandria during the Wolf attack.  I think she will turn out to be a good guy and her return will probably be dramatic and heroic. I sure hope Carl gets to kiss her this season.  Grade: A.

3. Thank You.  A fun episode to watch but frustrating in respect because I'm pretty sure they are going to come up with some kind of cop out reason that Glenn survived that impossible situation in the dumpster.  It's one thing to make the audience learn they should not jump to conclusions and another thing to just cheat.  I suspect a really big cheat is coming and nothing in the following episode dissuades me from that opinion.  I'm writing this while watching the Talking Dead after episode 5 and the actress who plays Jess is desperately trying to convince us that Glenn is dead. And I think we all know that means he is alive.  Grade: A-,

4.  Here's Not Here.  I have to acknowledge that this is the kind of episode that I have been wanting since the end of season three.  But the timing seemed gimmicky, as if they were just trying to drag out the "Is Glenn story line for an extra week. And the execution was uneven.  The acting by Morgan and Eastman were first rate.  I expect one or both of them to receive the first Emmy nomination(s) in this history of this show. (Eastman will be eligible in the guest star category.)  But the plot was very predictable.  We know from the moment we meet him that Eastman is going to be Morgan's Yoda and we know that he is doomed to die before the episode is over.  Eastman's backstory was about as cliche as television gets in this golden age.  But the performances redeem the episode.  I just hope that Morgan survives beyond this season. It seems like either he will have to give up his Akido philosophy or pay the price for it.  I'm hope he kills that last Wolf before the Wolf kills him, but I doubt they writer kept him alive unless he is going to do damage to someone in our group.  Maybe he will kill Gabriel or Abraham.  Someone important.  Grade: B+.

5.  Now.   This story was a shambling mess of plot holes. Rick shouts that everyone should keep noise to a minimum.  Later on he teaches Jesse's kid how to shoot by firing his revolver into the herd.  In between there is no attempt to kill any of the Walkers who are threatening Alexandria. I know there are a lot of them, but the armory appears to be well stocked, so why not put Rosita in the lookout tower with a rifle and a silencer, to take down as many as she can? For the love of God, THIN THE HERD!  (A few ideas for that: big knifes mounted on a long piece of pipe, throwing rocks, sling shots, etc.  There are a lot of options.)  Grade: C.

But that is just a small demonstration of my biggest frustration with the show. It's all tactics, never strategy.  I just want someone on this show to do some math and teach the others that the only way to get civilization back is to kill all of the approximately one billion Walkers that are shambling around the Americas. Every Walker put down is a step towards that goal. It's daunting, but you have to assume others are out and about doing their share of the work as well.  Kill your quota every day and eventually the world will be tamed. Then you can get to work on figuring out how to cure the survivors or at least come up with a protocol for preventing the dead from doing any damage after they pass.

But this is not the show for that.  Maybe Fear the Walking Dead will become that, but it doesn't seem likely.

Stray Observations and Predictions:

-  Milking the Glenn story line is a cheap trick.  Next week seems to focus on Darryl, Sasha and Abraham so we might go three straight weeks without learning what happened to Glenn.  I'm beginning to suspect we won't find out his fate until episode 7 or even the midseason finale. But I'm more convinced than ever that he is alive and he will be reunited with his pregnant wife.

- They seem to be saving on actor's salaries by holding key characters out of some episodes. Where was Carol tonight? Where was Eugene?

-  There should have been some mention of Morgan's Wolf prisoner.  Even if he was committed to not killing him, I can't believe that he would not let Rick or Deanna that there was a Wolf left.  Maybe he wouldn't have wanted to put the Wolf's life in danger, but she certainly knows that his prisoner intends to kill the others.  Keeping him out of sight seems to be part of a strategy of making his return more dramatic.

-   Remember when Darryl was on this show? It's a good thing that next week's episode apparently focuses on him.  The dip in the ratings is not just because the narrative is trapped in a cycle of going from one false oasis to another. It's because Darryl isn't getting enough screen time.

-  We are overdue for a familiar death and I think we'll get one next week. Abraham seems like a good candidate.

Where Does the Carousel Stop?

"When our boys are fighting, and they need it, and America needs it, Dow makes it and it works." Don Draper, on Napalm

I think of Mad Men as two shows.  The first few seasons covered a lot of ground and much of it was new for television. Eventually it fell into the inevitable rut pock marked by tropes and under developed supporting characters.  But the narrative matured eventually, with latter seasons each ending with a payoff that landed well enough to justify the digressions and meandering episodes.

The turning point was season five.  That was the season that Don was newly married to Meghan and committed to trying out monogamy, which of course threw off the pulse of the show. The writers took this device to its ultimate absurdity by having Don tag along to a whore house only to spend the night bullshitting with bartender.  This felt like watching Batman whistle Dixie while watching the Joker rob a bank.  But then the season finale redeemed it all by having Sterling Cooper relaunched as a new agency and by having a blonde approach Don for a light and ask him if he's alone.  Don looks back at her. Without saying a word, we know: Gotham can rest easy.  The Caped Crusader is back.

Season six ended with another great one-two punch of Don telling the Hershey executives about his tawdry childhood, and then being put on a leave of absence by his partners.  This is Don's lowest point. But rather than run off and hide, Don, for once, does something brave.  He drives his kids to a sketchy neighborhood and shows them the dilapidated remnants of the brothel where he spent his adolescence.  It is the most honest thing that Don has ever done; it is the closest Sally Draper has ever gotten to meeting Dick Whitman.

The first half of season seven ended with man landing on the moon and a recently departed Bert Coooper returning to wish Don happiness via a memorable song and dance number. Speculation ran rampant that the final seven episodes would take place after a considerable time jump.  But the story resumed eight months after Don watched Bert's soft shoe routine.  We have stuck our toes in the 70s, technically.  But decades end in zeroes, not nines.  The second half of season seven has been on familiar if not comfortable territory so far.

What does Matt Weiner have in store for us tomorrow night?  

Weiner has given us several hints of varying clarity. One is that he has known what the final shot would be since before the pilot was filmed. He has also said that he just hopes no one gets this shot first, which implies that it's something iconic   Another was that the teaser trailer for the final half-season contained Diana Ross' "Love Hangover", which came out in 1976.  This suggests the time jump may come after all. The third hint is a little less direct.  But we know that Mad Men was not guaranteed a second season, so he wrote season one well aware that he might have to tell the whole story in just 13 episodes.  For what it's worth, that episode includes Don's brilliant presentation to Kodak for the Carousel, and his progressive decision to promote Peggy out of the secretarial pool, although he was probably more motivated by a desire to tweak Pet Campbell than to help Peggy.  The final shot is of Don sitting alone on the stairs, having just missed his chance to join Betty and the kids on a Thanksgiving with Betty's family.

Don mentions happiness in his pitch to Lucky Strikes in the pilot.  ("Happiness is...a billboard on the side of the road that screams, the reassurance that whatever you're doing, is okay. You're ok.") If Matthew Weiner wants his characters to have a happy ending, then this episode will assure us that hey are okay.  What constitutes a happy ending for Don Draper probably depends on your perception of him as a man. I have long believed that Don Draper is a bad man.  This idea was best explained by Mary MacNamara in 2010 when she wrote an article for the L.A. Time putting forth the idea that Don Draper is a well-dressed, handsome devil whose evil deeds get glossed over because of his charm and looks:

   While everyone has been sidetracked by tortured-soul vampires and loveable werewolves, Don                    has been quietly taking over the world, one manipulative half-truth at a time. Think about it.                      In the three years we've known him, has Don Draper done one single thing that wasn't driven by rabid      self-interest? Sure he kept quiet about Sal ( Bryan Batt) being gay, but did Don step up and demand           that Sal not be fired? And yeah, he didn't condemn Peggy (Elisabeth Moss) when he figured out she           had had a baby, but how did he help her exactly? By telling her to nail down those emotions, keep her       painful secrets secret and get back to work. So he could continue to profit by her underpaid creativity.

So maybe Don doesn't deserve a happy ending.  But I think this show isn't about justice or growth. It's about how we really are.  And I expect Don to land on his feet, not because he deserves to, but because he's talented and because people like him, even when they shouldn't.  In that season one finale, Don's brilliance and bliss are mirrored by Peggy having her promotion out of the secretarial pool by a trip to the hospital that ends in the maternity ward.

My most in-depth writing on this blog has been about the Walking Dead, an entertaining but infuriating show.  I feel comfortable making predictions about that show, because the plot leads to predictable places, and it often feels like it is written for 11 year olds. Mad Men is several cuts above that, and Matthew Weiner's artistic vision is way more ambitious than any show based on a comic book about zombies ever could be.  So I gladly admit that I don't know what will happen tomorrow night.  But I would like to put forth three broad categories of endings we might see.

1. A Soprano.
Weiner wrote for the Sopraons, the show with the most discussed ending in television history.  Last week's episode contained a moment where Don's motel television conks out on him, right before a Red Foxx punchline, an obvious call back to that moment when millions of people thought their TV died at the worst possible time. Much of the debate around that show has focused on what happens after that infamous cut to black.  Did Tony live or die?  I actually think that's irrelevant.  The very first shot of the Soprano's Pilot is of Tony, sitting in Doctor Melfi's waiting area, staring up at the Romanesque statue of a nude woman.  When we last see him, he is facing the front door of that diner, presumably looking at Meadow.  Tony ends right where he begins, just like Sisyphus. Just like a Kodak carousel.

Naturally, we first met Don in a smoke filled Manhattan bar. After a swirling establishment shot of the boozy, well-dressed crowd, we find Don at a table by himself scribbling ideas on a napkin. Moments later he strikes up a conversation with a black busboy, about cigarette brands. The conversation culminates with them sharing a laugh about how women are silly because they like to read magazines. I would love an ending where Don is told by a waiter or bartender that he's in the no smoking section, so he gets up to walk to the other end of the bar, and we get a final shot of a smoking crowd, wearing slightly less elegant clothing than he.  Society has moved on, but Don has not.  However, I think we'll get something a little more dramatic.

2. A Monolith.

Last week's episode was brilliantly constructed to show Don tramping around the country, while we know the terrible truth of his future.  Betty Hofstead-Draper-Francis is about to die.  And while Henry Francis is a heck of a nice guy, he's not going to assume the parenting of another man's children.  Don's wondering is about to be replaced by a large dose of single parenthood.  I expect the finale to take place after Betty has passed away. I don't think we're going to see Don's live reaction to the news of her diagnosis or her passing. It will probably start sometime early in 1971.

The economics of his new plight, recently aggravated by walking away from two million dollars of McCann money, making Meghan a millionaire to spite her and giving a Cadillac to a grifter that reminds him of himself, might cause Don to crawl back to McCann.  Especially if the ink is not dry on his buyout.  McCann will probably want him back, especially if he's slightly humbled and measurably desperate. And Weiner might just want to torture Don by putting him back in those hallways, but this time he has to be there.

One great internet rumor is that Don will go back and get put on the Coca-Cola account, just as he was promised in the meeting where McCann tells them they are going to pull the plug on Sterling Cooper partners.  In 1971, McCann created the first "I'd like to teach the world to sing" commercial for them.  It's an incredibly iconic ad and it would be great for Don to go out with the pitch for that meeting.  Weiner could do a really great comedic musical number where the commercial rolls, with all the women Don has bedded in seven seasons singing on that hill. But that's a bit much.

3. A Downer.

I suspect the show will end where the first season ended.  Don will land on his feet at work, whether at McCann or in a less prestigious setting. But what about his kids?  I know he loves Sally and he's more than capable of providing for all of them, even with his reputation flawed.  So I don't think we'll see him shaft them or run back to Iowa to be Dick Whitman again.  But that shot of him on the stairs of an empty house is probably close to the emotional tone of the finale. I don't think we'll get the "Happily Ever After" vibe, however it ends.

4. A China Beach.
Kevin Rahm, the actor who plays Ted Chaough, confirmed that only five actors know how the show really ends. The other filmed what they thought was an ending, but those five were brought back later for additional scenes. He described these 5 as "the originals".  By my count that would be Don, Peggy, Roger, Joan and Pete. (Betty would have been a 6th original, but she doesn't work at the agency and for obvious reasons is unlikely to be involved in extra shoots.) So maybe Mad Men will end, as China Beach did, with an update of where our heroes land, well after the show's story lines conclude.  This could ruin the period mystique of the show.  But it might be satisfying to the audience in all the ways that the Sopranos finale left some people (mostly dullards) aggravated.

So what might the future hold for our heroes?

JOAN: I think Joan will get a happily ever after vibe, because she is in many ways the most admirable character of the core cast.  Not just because she's been through a lot, but because she has genuinely grown as a person through those experience. Re-watching early episodes, it is remarkable how shallow and snippy she is.  She never became a nice person, but she matured into someone who deserves to be happy.

ROGER:  I hope that Roger's ending won't require him to change at all. Times do change, but men like Roger Sterling are still doing perfectly well in this world, and Roger is to clever to be felled by any of the traps that might undo a less calculating man of his generation.  If this was fan faction, I'd show him drunk as a skunk on the 50th anniversary of Pearl Harbor.

PETE:  I think Pete is a wonderful plot device.  He is exactly as shallow and petulant as Don, but he doesn't get away with it because he lacks Don's looks and charms.  One of the great disappointments of this season was when they has some other underling spell this out to Don.  Great television is about showing without telling.  Mad Men rarely gives into the impulse for the latter option. I'm a little surprised that things appear to be turning out so well for Pete, but I guess his destiny was determined when he was born to the right blood lines of Dutchmen and English aristocrats.

PEGGY: I want Peggy to be happy, but I hope they don't over do it. She should get married but I think her professional life is more important to her than having a family.  I don't want them to slap a romance with Stan Rizzo. She deserves to be a success without any cliches.

DON: If there is a China Beach conclusion, I expect that the last shot will be of Don, sometime in the future, perhaps with kids played by adult actors.  (Kiernan Shipka has proven to be a great young actress but she is 15 years old.  I don't think Weiner would use her to play a 22 or 30 year old Sally.) I think he'll be smoking and I think he'll be lonely, whether or not he's alone.  I think something in the closing moments will remind us of how far we have come in race relations or (more likely) gender roles. I just hope it's not too on the nose.

The China Beach Scenario opens up to a lot of possibilities for the last shot.  The one that Weiner fretted about having someone else get to first. I don't have a strong feeling about any of these, and I'm hoping to be surprised but let's consider a few possibilities.

a. The Twin Towers, under construction.  The towers opened in 1973, but were construction was well underway by the time we're up to.  (1970 photograph here.)  It's a little obvious but it hasn't really been done since 2001. And it would bring the story into the "present" in a sharp way. (And the shot of a plane flying past the Empire state building seemed ominous.)

b. Nixon's resignation.  The Pilot contains a joke where Roger Sterling tries to get Don enthused about doing work for a 1960 Presidential candiate.  "He's young, he's handsome, he's a navy vet. Shouldn't be hard to convince America that Dick Nixon is the man for them." This requires a jump of more than three years but it's as good a symbol for the end of that era as any other.  But Watergate as a symbol for the end of that era has been done, countless times.  So I'm expecting more.

c. The Bicentennial.  Well, the Donna Summer song is from 1976.  If that's authentic period music, we might see something about the bicentennial. I have nothing else for that year.

d.  The aforementioned Coke commercial.

e. Some other iconic ad, like Mean Joe Greene's Coke ad.

f.  Don Draper's suicide from a tall building.  The original Mad Men conspiracy theory. I don't buy it.

g. Where the fuck is Sal?

Conquer what, exactly?

One of my criticisms of The Walking Dead has been its predictability. But I don't think tonight's Season 5 Finale has been telegraphed at all. For one thing, the title is "Conquer" and it doesn't get more vague than that. The last several episodes have had one word titles taken from something that Dale said all the way back in Season 1, episode 4,when explaining why he still kept time on his watch. The words in bold have each been the title of  a recent episode.

• ‘I give you a mausoleum of all hope and desire which will fit your individual needs, no better than it did mine and my father before me. I give it to you not that you may remember time, but that you may forget it. For a moment, now and then, and not spend all of your breath trying to conquer it.’

So what is to be conquered tonight? Alexandria? The Dianna Regime?  Time Itself  I really don't know.

 I have expected for a long time that this season would end with relative calm in order to set up a time skip for this off-season. And there isn't an obvious conflict to resolve tonight but it is a 90 minute episode and we do know about a few loose ends that need to be tied up. I think if you put them all together, you can get a good idea of what we're in store for.

1. Rick's Punishment.  Last week ended with Michonne punching Rick's lights out. We know from the previews that Deanna convenes a meeting to discuss what to do with him.  There is a shot of him in a small room that look like it was set up to confine him.  Of course the Alexandrians are going to be inclined to punish him but Dianna's made clear that killing him is not an option. And they're not about to exile the father of a teenager and a baby. We've already heard Deanna's husband rave about how many great things Rick's group said about him.  So they'll probably come up with some ham-handed BS punishment that involves him not being a constable and being put on some petty work detail.  But then....

2. Darryl and Aaron are in Danger and the Wolves are Not Far. Throughout this half-season we have seen a number of Walkers with a "W" carved into their forehead.  A screen shot from Episode 9 shows grafitti in Noah's neighborhood that refers to "Wolves Not Far".  This is probably a reference to a group of bad guys, although no such group exists by that name in the comic books.  Last week we saw Darryl and Aaron come across a couple horribly mutilated people and they saw in the distance the light from a camp fire.  So that's probably the antagonist for tonight.

3. Morgan.  One very clever detail from last week is that the one of bodies Aaron and Darryl came across seemed to match Morgan.  The hand was about the right coloration and it featured a wedding ring like the one worn by Morgan back in Season one.  The clothing also matches the sneak peaks we've seen of Morgan as this season went along.  This has naturally led to some speculation that Morgan is dead and maybe we will see his demise in a flashback of some kind.  I don't think that's right.  I think that was a purposeful misdirect by Nicotero's crew.  They like to have fun like that.

Morgan is the most popular character on the show after Darryl and possibly Michonne.  His return has been hyped since the season opener and I'm actually impressed that they have waited this long to bring him back to the story. They're not going to waste him on a one-off flashback of a death at the hands of bad guys we have never met.

So this is how I think everything gets tied together tonight: Rick gets put in the penalty box.  But then Aaron and/or Darry run afoul of these new bad guys.  My hunch is they have Darryl hostage but Aaron makes it back to Alexandria and wants to raise a posse.  Having been away when Rick went ape-shit on Pete, he will insist on Rick coming. Rick of course will jump at the chance and everyone else form our group (with the possible exception of Michhone) will want him to lead the mission.

He will.  But things will still be hairy. And the group will need saving.  That's where Morgan comes into play, earning hero status and joining our group in Alexandria for good.  All of which leads to the inevitable question about a season finale of The Walking Dead....

Who Will Die?

The Walking Dead's willingness to kill popular and important characters has become its trademark.  When the plot meanders, they usually justify it by killing someone like Tyrese.  And it's a pretty standard part of every season and mid-season finale although the season 4 finale was an exception to this rule.  Season 5 started with a lot of dead weight in the group and they have not been shy about shedding those folks this season.  I still think they have one more big death to go and here's who I think are the likely candidates.


a.  Carol. Her sweet-talking in public, threatening innocent people in private act is a time bomb.  I think someone will see through it tonight and she'll pay a price for her bullshit. Death Chances: 70%

b.  Dianna.  If the danger comes inside the walls, I think Dianna is on the short list of people to be killed.  After all, we need Rick to be the undipsuted Alpha character, right?  (65%)

c. Glenn.  All season long I have thought that Maggie or Gleen would die this year. Glenn seems to be in more danger, having punched that D-bag who stole Ricck's 9MM from the blender outside the gate. (50%)

d. That D-bag Who Stole Rick's 9MM from the Blender.  We need to have a kill to root for. He's the obvious choice.  (50%)

e. Pete See above (45%)

e. Tara.  She's not doing well and her friends are busy threatening the only doctor who can help her.  (40%)

f. Sam.  The story probably doesn't need another kid to slow the story down. But they can always re-cast another actor if they do in fact do a time-skp after this season (35%)

g. Enid.  It's probably better for her survival chances that Carl didn't actually kiss her last week. But she still could become a poignant symbol of Carl's suffering.  (33%)

h. Gabriel.  It's bad enough that the Walking Dead killed off Cutty and DeAngelo this year but is there any worse indignity for fans of The Wire than to make Carver a snitch?  (30%)

i.  Abraham.  Earlier in the season there were some ominous signs about Abraham but lately he seems to have settled in to his expected role as a bad ass and a 2nd tier leader. (20%)

j. Maggie.  I don't think they've set this up right, so I'm leaning against it.  More likely she lives to either Mourn and/or take over the administrative duties from Deanna in a new Rickatorship. (10%)

k. Darryl Okay. This is the big one.  Nothing would hurt the show more than his death. But there's always the chance that Norman Reedus over played his hand in contract negotiations.  I think it's unlikely but if they want to go out with a bang, this is the way to go.  (1%)

Aaron and Deanna are the People We Have Been Waiting For (The Walking Dead Season 5 Second Half)

It's been a while since I have posted about the Walking Dead.  The first two episodes of the second half of season five were basically filler.  First they gave up on one of the best characters in the company by building an entire episode around Tyrsese dying during a digression that barely advance the narrative at all. The episode after that was even less relevant to the main plot.  We spent an hour learning that Ricks group were hungry and tired. I'm pretty sure we knew that since about the 3rd episode of season one, but they spent an hour hammering it home.

And then we met Aaron. The great challenge before the writers of this show is to take a show that has been about survival and zombie kills and elevate into a show about rebuilding civilization. The prison season had moments of this, and those remain the best episodes we've seen.  But mostly the show has been content to put our friends in danger and expect us to be satisfied with the fact that it sometimes lets them die.  But this approach is losing its power as the remaining characters seem to be easily identifiable as Untouchable (Rick, Darryl and Michonne) or Biding Their Time (Everyone else.)

Aaron is the first character with the skill set to make the show about something more than the endless cycle of being chased by zombies and killing incompetent bad guys.  He worked in the Niger delta for an NGO.  He knows how to negotiate with hostile clans and he knows what really matters in building bridges.  The writing on his first full episode was of course uneven.  (The bit about not wanting to eat apple sauce because his mean mommy made him eat apples to make him more manly? Is that a thing? And  I can't for a minute believe they couldn't find a less insulting way to let us know that the new good guy was also our first gay guy on the show.) But there was good stuff too.  He showed that he knows how to negotiate and how to empathize with desperate people.  There is great potential in him.

Last week we met Deanna the putative boss of the Alexandria Safe Zone.  The best characters on this how bring something to the Zombie Apocalypse that was also meaningful in their old life. Deanna was a Congresswoman. For all our national ambivalence about the current congress, the fact is that the House of Representatives is still the best collection of former High School Class Presidents in the world.  You don't get there by accident and you don't stay there without some people skills.  I think Deanna has great promise, although I suspect her run on the show might be short in order to make Rick the unquestioned leader again.  This story is still a hero's quest and Rick is our hero.

It was great to see Rick back in uniform last week.  Andrew Lincoln is a pretty good actor but the show has demonstrated the limits of his range at times.  Rick isn't very convincing when he's overly anxious or bordering with insanity.  Rick is still a cop and a great one.  I think these next few episodes will give us a chance to see him revert to his basic humanity. That doesn't sound especially exciting but this gets me back to the challenge of the show in the first place.  Can they make this horror show a compelling story about how to rebuild a civilization?  It's a tall task but the Aleandria Safe Zone seems like as good a stand in for the Garden of Eden as anything we're going to get.

Predictions.

There are two kinds of Walking Dead fans.  Those who enjoy the zombie kills and can take the story as it comes and those who really want to see where the story goes.  I'm in the latter group and that makes the somewhat pointless art of predictions necessary.

1. Episode 5 will be relatively calm.  I think we get one more hour of the Group getting acquainted with Alexandrians.  There will be an obligatory action scene, most likely involving Aaron and Darryl teaming up to kill some Walkers outside the walls.

2. The next bad guys will be the people that Deanna exiled.  (But not Negan).  I think the last 3 episodes will involve a now familiar pattern of meet a threat, suffer a setback, beat the threat.

3. Morgan will return in Epsiode 7 and bail out Rick's group in the finale.

4. Deanna will die during this confrontation with the bad guys.

5. Of course someone major will die in the finale.  My hunch is Carol because I don't think Deanna buys her Suzy homemaker act for a second.  If there was any doubt about this, her line to Rick about being a great poker player is a less than subtle tip off.  (Tell, if you prefer.) This either leads to her proving invaluable in an unlikely way (for the 10th time) or she will be mistrusted by Deanna and somehow that will go to shit.  The other contenders for a serious death are Glenn and Maggie but they have not built that up at all.

6. We could get a bonus death of a group member, but it won't be anyone we care about. It strikes me that Abraham might not be very useful in Alexandria but I think he will be very useful once Negan shows up and the group truly finds itself fighting wars.  (Season six could be great!) So I don't think it will be him but between Tara, Rosita, Gabriel and Noah, there are some spare people taking up oxygen in the group.

7. The season will end with relative calm and we'll have a time jump before season six.  I expect that Season 6 will find the group having lived a couple years of relative peace. At some point they have to explain Carl going from nine years old to a teenager in such a short time.  And it would be helpful if Judith were out of infancy.

8. I saved this for last because it's the most specific.  Rick will start a relationship with Michonne by season's end.  Of course I have been wrong before.  But I think this is the love story we have been waiting for.  If you think about the group as currently constituted, you essentially have  four adult couples: Glenn & Maggie, Abraham and Rosita, Darryl and Carol, Rick and Michonne.  Only two of these couples are actually having sex but I think that will change soon.  Alexandria should give them the chance to enjoy life a little.  Come to think of it, I think Darry will finally bone Carol...and then she will die.  His many fans of the distaff gender will finally see him have sex with a woman and then he will be the sexiest thing of all: a widower.

The rest of the group are probably not going to pair up anytime soon. In the comic books Eugene ends up with Rosita after Abraham gets killed but that doesn't feel believable on screen.  Father Gabriel is an Episcopal priest but I don't think he's still wrecked with grief about what he did.  Sasha is still mourning Bob and Carl has made the mistake of falling for a feral Emo girl. (We've all been there kid.)  I don't see that working out well which leads me to my last prediction.

9. Enid is a spy.  No one that young survives on the outside for very long.  I think she is a spy for the next group of baddies.  She's probably the person we saw watching the group as they headed towards Alexandria a few weeks back. And she seemed a little too nonchalant about hopping that wall.  I think she was going with a purpose.  I think she was reporting to her old friends, probably the people that Deanna exiled.  She will deliver the trouble to Alexandria and break Carl's little heart in the process.

Scattered Thoughts on a Jumbled Narrative: Walking Dead Season 5 Midseason Finale Predictions

The Comic-Con Pre-season Trailer, discussed throughout this blog in Italics.

Last week's episode was pretty pedestrian.  The previous three episodes focused on just one subgroup of the Survivor's-Beth in the hospital, Glenn and Maggie with Abraham's trio, and then Darryl and Carol's big adventure in Atlanta.  Last week they gave significant screen time to those three sub-groups as well as a 4th story involving Father Gabriel at the church.  The result was a narrative felt that felt rushed and only one truly suspenseful sequence.

More problematic than the distribution of screen time was the rather large story plot that involved Sasha getting duped into doing something incredibly stupid.  I just didn't buy that she would be that gullible.  But this was the device they chose to set up some suspense for tonight's midseason finale. I have also re-watched the pre-season coming attractions for clips that we haven't seen yet.  Discussion of such clips are in italics below, with the time stamp of where the scene can be found.

It's hard to intelligently predict what will happen tonight because the episode ended in a bit of a jumbled mess.  The clips on AMCTV.com are also unhelpful for making predictions about the whole story because the lengthy clip focuses on Father Gabriel. The description that AMC posted for the episode is "Rules and Morals have been tossed aside by new enemies. Rick will try to find a  peaceful agreement, but they might prefer violence." That's about as opaque as you would expect but there's at least one hint in there that's worth speculating about.  (See Below.)

1.  Father Gabriel, man about town.

Last week we watched Father Gabriel leave the church without a weapon. He duly ran afoul of a walker, who he was able to neutralize without having to kill.  The preview shows him making his way back to the school where the Termites were camped out when they took Bob captive.  He discovers Bob's charred leg on their abandoned grill.  I would be very surprised if he died tonight, becau he's played by a fairly famous actor, by TWD standards, and the audience has no emotional investment in him yet.  That means they spent money to get him and they're not going to waste him after a handful of scenes.  So he'll probably make his way back to the church and slip back through the crawl space.  Most likely he'll have to kill a walker while he's out there though. That will be his big emotional moment.  And that's just not very interesting so I hope they don't waste a lot of time on that.

2. Abraham and Company, Where to?

The worst story line last week was the one focusing on Abraham's group.  The obvious thing for them to do would have been to head back to the church.  The bit about waiting for Eugene to wake up before moving seemed forced, especially in light of the fact that they were within nose range of a colossal Walker herd.  And the only thing we learned about this group is that Tara is still capable of  joy because she found a yo-yo.  That's a small point but given that I often wish they would let the survivors have a little more fun, I was happy to see it made.  I think Gleen, Tara and Rosita might just be the three mentally healthiest characters left so it was good to see them off on a harmless jaunt to the creek.

What happens next?  The logical thing would be for them to get back on the road and head back towards the church. But I don't think that's going to happen. The only clip in the coming attractions of this group shows Maggie and Glenn in the back seat of what appears to be the Fire Truck.  Glenn has his gun drawn and Maggie looks scared. That doesn't tell us much other than the group runs into some kind of trouble.  One online theory is that Eugene actually died last week and turned to a Walker. I don't buy it, although I do think the show runners left that possibility open on purpose when they had Eugene moan in that awkward way as he regained consciousness.

My hunch is that this group will not meet back up with the church folks or the team in Atlanta.  I think the separation will continue into the 2nd half of the next season, perhaps with Team Glenn heading north for some convoluted reason. Maybe they get caught and/or distracted by a new group of survivors.

A very brief shot at 1:14 of the previews appears to show Glenn and some other characters approaching the giant herd of walkers that their fire truck is now close to.  It's hard to say for sure but I think the figures in the back ground include Glenn, Tara, Eugene, Maggie and Rosita. Two figures are impossible to identify but they could be Abraham and Rosita. They are walking on foot and the fire truck can not be seen. The herd seems to be behind some kind of fence so this might not be the herd that they smelled two weeks ago.

3. Michonne, Carl and Judith: On the sidelines.
One of the strangest points about the story unfolding thithats way is that it will apparently leave Michonne far from the action in a cliff-hanger episode. Maybe she discovers that Gabriel left the church and goes out to find him.  One hellacious possibility is that Rick and Judith will then be caught unawares by walker and Judith will end up dead.  I really hope they don't go for that because I think Judith is the heaviest emotional card that the show has left to play.  It would be a wasted to do it this soon and way too depressing.

At 1:15 of the coming attractions, Michonne is stomping on a walker.  I don't think we have seen this yet and it looks like it might happen near the church, perhaps after she sets out to find Father Gabriel.

4. Team Rick: heading for a fight.
I just watched the previews scenes slowly and learned a few things.  When Rick is shown introducing himself to (presumably) Dawn, Darryl is shown up on the roof of a nearby parking garage. I thought last week that he was with Noah but the pause button makes clear (about 28 seconds in) that it is Sasha.  Another clip appears to show Rick asking Sgt. Bob "Do you want to live." It looks like this scene takes place in the same building where Sasha was left guarding the three police officers.

This would imply that Rick heads back to that building.  Maybe they heard the tumult of Sasha being knocked out. Or maybe the cops get out of that place and confront Rick before he makes it to the hospital and a fight ensues.  I'm starting to think that the "main" story line tonight might be even more convuluted than last week.  Some of the rumors I've read online imply that tonight ends with a cliff hanger, just like last season did.  We might get another spectacular start to a half-season in February. (AMC has probably figured out that big starts lead to big ratings for several weeks after.)
So I think tonight's episode will end with Rick and Dawn in a standoff.  The biggest question is, who might die in the interim.


5. Carol and Beth: Darryl's Not-girlfriends.
Probably the biggest source of speculation on tonight's episode has been Norman Reedus' declaration that he cried for a half hour before filming tonight's episode.  The simplest reading of that is that Norman knows one of Darryl's good friends will die tonight.  Of course Norman could have been crying because of the loss of an actor that he admires.  And he could be exaggerating and he could be trying to drum up interest in the episode.  But precedent suggests that someone important has to die tonight, and Beth and Carol both seem like prime contenders.

I don't think Beth will die.  Two entire episodes have been dedicated to her story and I think she's supposed to be reunited with Maggie at some point.  They also have potential for a nice story line of her and Noah becoming a couple.  There is one clip (2:46) of her looking down an hospital elevator shaft. Another flash in last week's sneak preview showed her in a similar position. I think she lives tonight and I still am going with my theory that Dawn is somehow redeemed.

Carol is a closer call.  The driving tension of tonight's episode is that Rick will negotiate for the safe return of Carol and Beth.  When last we saw Carol she was still unconscious and being kept alive by an IV drip administered by Beth.  Dawn could use this as an excuse to not turn Carol over. "Why should we give you her if only we can take care o her?"  One popular theory is that Beth will die doing something heroic to save Carol.  I think it's more likely Carol will have a miraculous recovery, only to die in a horribly Walking Dead fashion.  Thinks about the guilt consequence for Rick, Beth and Darryl.  That could really drive some emotional baggage for a season and a half to come.

6. Death Predictions.
There is no single logical candidate for death tonight. But I think the most likely sympathetic character death is Carol.  Beth and/or Noah seem like possible deaths also.  Tyrese would be a logical candidate but I don't think they have hinted at that enough. The bald asshole from last week are most likely to die. I think either Dawn or Sgt. Bob will die tonight, and my hunch is Sgt. Bob.

7. Wild Card: Is Sasha Pregnant?
Sonequa Martin was a guest on The Talking Dead last week and revealed that she was eight months pregnant.  I'm not exactly sure of the shooting schedule but it would seem likely that this will become visible by the end of the season.  A convenient way to avoid that is to kill Sasha off. But there are dangers there for at TV show.  Huntery Tylo successfully sued the producers of Merose Place for $5 million dollars when they made a similar decision.

Now I have no reason to think that Sasha was going to be killed, but it would be reasonable for TWD to want to incorporate her pregnancy into the storyline.  Consider that Bob tried to kiss Sasha towards the end of Season Three and was rebuffed.  On that night episode of the Talking Dead, Ms. Green explained that Sasha appreciated the kiss as a gesture but made clear that she had no romantic interest in Bob.

Well something changed her mind.  Maybe the writers decided that it would be better to incorporate the pregnancy into the story line than to try to hide it for a half-season.  Babies certainly create tension and hope.  Tyrese's roll as Judith's primary caretaker takes on new significance if he's about to become an uncle to a child with a dead father.

Sasha being pregnant also repeats the story line of Lori Grimes getting pregnant in Season 2.  (Or One, if in fact Shane is Judith's real father.)  That story line put added incentive on finding a safe, stable place to live, the prison.  It is anticipated that the next major location for the show will be the Alexandria Safe Zone, a spot that has been one of the main locations of the comic book story line for the last several years.

So we may not learn this tonight, but my biggest prediction is that Sasha is pregnant, Bob is the father, and the two major groups will eventually meet up in Alexandria.  Rick and company after all have no idea that Eugene was full of shit. (They would probably pass the overturned church bus on their way north, but I think the producers are more than willing to overlook a detail like that.)

I will miss the show for the winter break.  It's a frustrating show but I've never enjoyed speculating about the plot of any show as much as I do this one.

8. Bonus Prediction: No Morgan Tonight.

Okay, the episode is about to start but I wanted to add a prediction that we will NOT see Morgan tonight but that he will be a major part of the second half of the season.  I'm still intrigued by the clip we saw of him after the credits of the season premiere.  He is in the area near Terminus and he notices an intricate carving in one of the trees.  I think that's a flash forward and we'll know before we see that scene pickup what the significance of the carving is.  The Hunters made a crude mark while tracking Rick's group but this is something much more involved. I suspect it's the sign of a group like Nagin's or some other new bunch of survivors. Okay. It's showtime!

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The Walking Dead: 2 Episodes to Go

Season 5 of the Walking Dead has inverted the arc of all its previous seasons.  It started with a large scale battle which spilled over into the next two seasons.  And then the story meandered through three consecutive episodes that did not feature Rick Grimes at all. First we found out that Beth has been kept in a hospital since she was separated from Darryl. Then we followed Glenn and Maggie tagging along with Eugene's group on an aborted trip towards DC.  Last week found Darryl and Carol attempting to spring Beth from the hospital.  Now with two episodes left, it appears ready to revert to form with a two-part siege of the hospital.  But I think the show might surprise again by doing something slightly different.

We know from the preview clips that we will see all three group's for at least some time tonight.  One clip shows Rick plotting some kind of attack on the hospital with Darryl and a few others.  Another clip shows Michonne, Carl, Father Gabriel (and presumably Judith) sitting around the church. That would be a logical group for Rick to leave behind at the church.  He wouldn't want his kids to come and he doesn't yet trust Gabriel enough to leave him in charge of the kids.  Another clip shows Glenn looking out on the horizon as if trying to decide where to go.

What We Can Glean From All the Hints?

1. Tonight's episode is called "Crossed".  That could be a reference to the crosses on the cars used by the police who run the hospital or to the Church itself but it probably also stands for a story point involving two groups crossing one another.  Maybe Glenn's team makes their way back to the church and meet up with  A more intriguing possibility is Morgan crossing paths with Rick (and perhaps others) for the first time this season.  I do expect to see Morgan either tonight or next week but there's nothing firm to go on there.

2. Michonne is left behind at the church.  The most logical candidate to stay behind and keep an eye on the children would be Tyrese. He's a lousy shot and has a deep bond with Judith.  Rick also can trust him implicitly given how much he sacrificed to keep Judith alive. But Tyrese is probably worried about Sasha who is still grieving the loss of Bob.  I think we might see Tyrese insisting to go along on the raid.  Michonne then becomes the logical choice. She's responsible and tough and has bonded a lot with Rick.  I think another dynamic may be developing here.  I think that Rick and Michonne will eventually become a couple. I think it will be a great story line and it was set up in one beautifully flirtatious line from way back in the scene from the season three finale which is shown at the top of this page.

3. I Think Dawn Will Survive the Conflict.  It would have been pretty easy to make Dawn a purely evil character but the writers made an effort to show that her situation is a little more complicated. Noah specifically speaks up with  her (to a point) when speaking to Beth. One common online theory is that Rick and Dawn knew each other form law enforcement circles before the apocalypse. That strikes me as a little too much of a coincidence but I think that Rick may end up making peace with her.

4.  Next Week's Episode is Called "Coda". If you're about my age or older, you probably associate that word with Led Zeppelin's last album, which was released after John Bonham's death and included mostly out takes and garbabe.  Dictionary.com tells us that a coda is a "more or less independent passages, at the end of a composition, introduced to bring it to a satisfactory close." (Think: Shave and a Haircut, Two Bits!)

If the mid-season finale is truly a coda that would mean that most of the action is wrapped up tonight.  But the description for that episode is New enemies disregard rules and morals. "Although Rick wants to find a peaceful agreement, the enemy seems to prefer a more violent solution." That seems to describe a stand off where Rick is trying to negotiate for the release of Beth and Carol but the cops insist on a conflagration.

So here's my official prediction/hunch for the next 2 episodes.  Rick and company head to Atlanta tonight.  Tonight's episode ends with a cliff hanger. Then next week we have a confrontation between the groups in Atlanta.  Meanwhile Glenn/Abraham go back to the church and are told about what's going on.  But I think Episode 8 will not end with a huge fight.  I think it will end with a cliffhanger and/or an unexpected character death.  This is keeping with the reverse structure of this season, and would allow the 2nd half to kick off with a big bang.

But for once I don't feel like the show is leading to a blindingly obvious course.  And that's a really good sign for the show's future.

One Last Point on Chronology.

The time lines of the three groups seem to be synching up.  This is my best estimation of how time has passed the last few weeks. If my timeline is correct, this whole half of a season covers about a week of time.

Day one: Darryl and Carol take off after the car; Bob is taken prisoner.
Day two: The Hunters try to take the church, Rick et al kill them; Darryl and Carol run afoul of Noah in Atlanta.
Day three: Abraham leads Team B north to DC; Darryl returns to the church with Noah.
Day four: Abraham finds out that Eugene is lying; Rick, Darryl, Noah, Sasha and Tyrese leave for Atlanta.
Day five: Maggie/Glenn/Abraham, etc. return to the church, then head to Atlanta.
Day six: confrontation at the hospital.