Showing posts with label Kasich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kasich. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Duper Tuesday (What to Expect)
There are 2,473 delegates this year. The magic number to have a majority is 1,237. After tonight we will have a much better idea of whether or not Donald Trump can get to that number. And we will know for sure that no other candidate has a realistic chance of getting a majority. This is my attempt to lay out the math so you can understand the significance of the results as they roll in.There are six Republican Primarires today.
1. What we already know.
The Northern Mariana Islands have already spoken, awarding all nine delegates to Donald Trump. That means the up to the minute Delegate Count is this: Trump 472, Cruz 371, Rubio 166, Kasich 63, Others 21. (Most of the "Others" delegates are uncommitted, either because the candidate who won them will not be put in nomination as the convention or because people voted to send uncommitted delegates to Cleveland.)
2. Safe Estimates.
Most of the attention on today's primaries has been given to Ohio and Florida because they are big states that award all of their delegates to the state-wide winner. There are actually more delegates available in the other three contests, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Here's how the delegates are likely to break down there.
A. Illinois 69 Delegates. Fifty-four of the delegates are award to the winner of each congressional district in the state. That's 18 separate battles for three delegates apiece. The state wide winner will get 12 bonus delegates and three are for state party officials. Trump is heavily favored to win the state and is likely to win about 12 of the districts. A reasonable assumption would be he gets 48 delegates while Cruz wins 4 downstate districts to get 12 and Kasich or possibly Rubio might win 2 districts in or near Chicago. That breaks down to Trump 48, Cruz 12 and Kasich 9.
B. Missouri has similar rules to Illinois but fewer congressional districts. The The statewide winner will get 28 delegates and there will be eight congressional district levels for three delegates each. This race is very close but I expect that Cruz will win because he has been able to focus his efforts there while Trump fights for Ohio and Florida. The math there could be something like Cruz 43, Trump 9.
C. North Carolina. Simplest math of the night. Every 1.43% of the vote gets you a delegate. Trump has commanding leads in all the polls but these rules will prevent him from running up the score. If he wins with 45% of the vote to 35% for Cruz and 10% each for Rubio and Kasich, the numbers will look something like Trump 34, Cruz 25, Rubio 7, Kasich 6.
So my combined estimate for the proportional states totals up to this: Trump 91, Cruz 80, Kasich 15, Rubio 7. That sets the stage for one of three scenarios at the end of the night.
3. The Possible Scenarios After Tonight.
Trump will almost certainly win Florida, but we have to consider that Rubio has a chance of pulling the upset. Kasich is more likely than not to win Ohio, but it's far from guaranteed. So let's look at where the math will stand in a few hours time, depending on which winner take all states Trump wins.
Trump has 472 delegates. If he gets 91 from the proportional states, he will have 562. Add Ohio he has 623. Add just Florida but not Ohio and he has 661. Add moth and he has 722.
Cruz has 362 Delegates. He can't win OH or FL but I estimate he will have 442 at the end of the night.
Rubio has 166 and should win a handful in NC. If he also wins Florida he will have about 270 delegates and will stay in the fight. If he lose Florida, he will leave the race with about 172 delegates.
Kasich has 63 delegates. He'll win about a dozen in the small states and needs to win Ohio's 66 to stay in the race. If he does he'll have around 240 delegates and can be the establishment choice going forward.
If Trump has a big night, winning OH and FL, he will be on pace for well over 1,300 delegates. He will be the nominee. Even with a split he will be the heavy favorite.
Sunday, March 6, 2016
Republicans Have Two Options
Donald Trump under performed slightly yesterday. He was expected to win three races but only won two. He lost Kansas by a two to one margin and Maine by a lot more than I thought possible. My prediction was that Trump would be at 77% in the Prediction markets today and he is only at 64%. Cruz, Kasich and Rubio are all slightly higher, although at least I got the order right.
I think we learned three things yesterday:
1. Marco Rubio will not be the Republican nominee. He finished last in Maine and a distant third everywhere else. He is almost certain to win Puerto Rico's primary today, but that is the last contest he will win this year. He is done.
2. Ted Cruz will stick around until June but he can't get to 1,237 delegates. He has done well so far but there are very few states that he can win that have not yet voted. A bigger problem for him is that almost none of the states he's likely to win have Winnter Take All rules. He could get all 32 of Idaho's delegates if he manages to get over 50% of the vote, and he might win all 27 of Montan's delegates but he has no chance of winning Ohio, Florida, or Arizona or New Jersey.
3. Donald Trump will get at least a plurality of the delegates and has a good chance of winning a majority. The media narrative of elections is almost always about "momentum" and who beat expectations. Yesterday Cruz took back the momentum and exceeded expectations. But he didn't win enough delegates to match what would be his target to get a majority. Trump is ahead of that pace and he has his best states to look forward to later in the calendar.
This leaves the Republicans Two Options: they can nominate Trump or they can screw him out of the nomination. I'm not sure which option is worse for them, but neither is good.
Votes and Dlegates Math
Trump is winning the vote by six percent and over 600,000 votes. Through 19 states, Trump has won 12, Cruz has won six contests and Rubio only one. One interesting metric is how often a candidate finished first or second. Trump has done so 18 times, Cruz 12, Rubio 5 and Kasich only three times.
Trump; 1,250 (51%)
I think we learned three things yesterday:
1. Marco Rubio will not be the Republican nominee. He finished last in Maine and a distant third everywhere else. He is almost certain to win Puerto Rico's primary today, but that is the last contest he will win this year. He is done.
2. Ted Cruz will stick around until June but he can't get to 1,237 delegates. He has done well so far but there are very few states that he can win that have not yet voted. A bigger problem for him is that almost none of the states he's likely to win have Winnter Take All rules. He could get all 32 of Idaho's delegates if he manages to get over 50% of the vote, and he might win all 27 of Montan's delegates but he has no chance of winning Ohio, Florida, or Arizona or New Jersey.
3. Donald Trump will get at least a plurality of the delegates and has a good chance of winning a majority. The media narrative of elections is almost always about "momentum" and who beat expectations. Yesterday Cruz took back the momentum and exceeded expectations. But he didn't win enough delegates to match what would be his target to get a majority. Trump is ahead of that pace and he has his best states to look forward to later in the calendar.
This leaves the Republicans Two Options: they can nominate Trump or they can screw him out of the nomination. I'm not sure which option is worse for them, but neither is good.
Votes and Dlegates Math
| Popular Vote | Percentage | Raw Vote |
| Trump | 34.6% | 3,603,656 |
| Cruz | 28.8% | 3,002,218 |
| Rubio | 21.3% | 2,221,276 |
| Kasih | 6.9% | 714,355 |
Trump is winning the vote by six percent and over 600,000 votes. Through 19 states, Trump has won 12, Cruz has won six contests and Rubio only one. One interesting metric is how often a candidate finished first or second. Trump has done so 18 times, Cruz 12, Rubio 5 and Kasich only three times.
The Delegate Math also favors Trump. He currently has 391 delegates, to 248 for Cruz, 176 for Rubio and just 37 for Kasich. As of this writing 18 delegates from Louisiana have not been allocated and Rubio is likely to win all or most of the 23 delegates from Puerto Rico.
There are about 35 contests left. I played with the delegate allocations for each and came up with the following final projections:
Trump; 1,250 (51%)
Cruz: 732 (30%)
Kasich 286 (12%)
Rubio 178 (7%)
The biggest variables are the Winner Take All states. I have Trump winning Florida, Arizona and New Jersey but Kasich winning Ohio. My numbers are predicated on Rubio dropping out after losing Florida and Kasich staying in after winning Ohio.
Cruz had a good day but I don't see the delegate math working out for him getting to 1,237. I think his ceiling is about 900. He also seems to be determined to knock Rubio out by campaigning hard in Florida. That probably guarantees 99 delegates to Trump. If Trump manages to win Ohio (he led by five in the most recent poll), then his path to 1,237 seems very likely.
The outcome of the nomination will probably be determined by California on June 7th. The state wide winner gets 10 delegates for winning the state and then each of California's 53 congressional districts have 3 delegates that are awarded to whoever wins that district and three are reserved for party officials. If Trump wins the state, he'll probably need wins in 17 or 18 California congressional districts to cross the line to 1,237. Maybe by then the party will have rallied around Cruz or Kasich or decided to make Trump fight a bunch of two-front wars against one or the other throughout the Golden State.
My math has Trump winning California and 23 of its congressional races. Cruz wins 22 and Kasich wins 8. My methods are far from exact. But that might not even matter. If Trump wins Ohio and Florida on March 15th, he might not need any of California's delegates. And unless Cruz can carry his "momentum" to the big states of the Northeast, he won't be able to prevent Trump from being nominated on the first ballot.
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Super Saturday Expectations
There were a few interesting developments this week on the predictions markets for the Republican nomination. Donald Trump fell by more than10 points despite having won 7 of the 11 contests on Super Tuesday. He went from a peak of 83 percent down to a bottom of just below 70 percent before rebounding up to 73% as I write this.
What's most interesting about this is that none of that advantage went to Marco! Rubio. He won Minnesota on Tuesday but finished third almost everywhere else. (Behind Kasich in New England and Cruz and Trump everywhere else.) The gains went to Ted Cruz, who went from a low of 2% back to nearly double digits, to John Kasich who bounced up from 1% to 5% after looking like the only adult in Thursday night's debate in Detroit. And last but not least both sides of the 2012 ticket, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan entered the market at 1% and have stayed there since.
But now we're back to a voting day. Four states weigh in on Saturday, with a primary in Lousiana and caucuses set for Maine, Kentucky and Kansas. The delegate math won't move much today. None of these states are winner-take-all and all four candidates can expect to win at least some in one or more states. The real test today is whether an intense week of anti-Tump effort can anyone slow his momentum. Here are a few good things to watch for:
1. How many states does Trump win? He's a heavy favorite in Maine, Louisiana and Kentucky. Cruz should win Kansas, but Trump was leading in the most recent poll. If Trump gets four wins today, that's a pretty resounding rejection of the #NeverTrump movement by the base.
2. Can Kasich win Maine? John Kasich is the only candidate still running without benefit of having won a contest yet. But he has done well in New England so far, having finished in 2nd place in New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts. If Thursday's debate has really created a groundswell for a candidate more mature than the shrieking babies he has shared this stage with, then he just might be competitive in Maine. A victory will help him enormously going forward, especially in Michigan.
3. Can Cruz pull an upset somewhere? Cruz should win Kansas. It's a closed caucus and it's right in the alley of the other states he's won (OK and TX to the south, Iowa to the Northeast.) Winning there is expected. But if he pulls off an upset in KY or LA, then he can make an undisputed claim as the most viable alternative to Donald Trump.
4. Will Rubio even get a 2nd place? Marco Rubio has been abandoned by the establishment and by Fox News in particular. In between Nevada and Super Tuesday, Marco got on the gutter with Trump and came out of it looking worse for wear. It's not hart to imagine him finishing 3rd in all four places and he might be 4th in Maine. That will hurt his images very much and I don't think a likely win in Puerto Rico on Sunday will do him any particular favors going forward in the GOP.
5. How big of a number can Trump put up in Louisiana. It's the only primary today and it's in the deep south, where Trump has done especially well so far. If he gets over 40% he starts to look like a presumptive nominee rather than just a front runner. Rubio could also miss the 20% mark here which would mean he gets no delegates from another sizable state. He can't let happen.
Predictions:
1. Louisiana: Trump 43%, Cruz 27%, Rubio 19%, Kasich 10%.
2. Kentucky: Trump 34%, Cruz 30%, Rubio 27%, Kasich 9%
3. Kansas Cruz 37%, Trump 32%, Rubio 22%, Kaich 9%
4. Maine Trump 28%, Kasich 27%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 19%
So rough night for Rubio, again. I think at noon on Sunday the Predictwise market will look like this:
Trump 77%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 5%
Rubio 4%
Ryan 1%
Romney 1%
By the way I think Ryan is the best buy in this market. He's a much more logical consensus pick at a brokered convention than Romney. If the establishment is out to get Trump, then he's well positioned. But I think their opportunity to do that depends on Trump losing both Ohio and Florida and I don't think that is likely. After March 15th the GOP will have two choices: nominate Trump or screw him out of the nomination. I'm really not sure which is worse for them in the long term.
What's most interesting about this is that none of that advantage went to Marco! Rubio. He won Minnesota on Tuesday but finished third almost everywhere else. (Behind Kasich in New England and Cruz and Trump everywhere else.) The gains went to Ted Cruz, who went from a low of 2% back to nearly double digits, to John Kasich who bounced up from 1% to 5% after looking like the only adult in Thursday night's debate in Detroit. And last but not least both sides of the 2012 ticket, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan entered the market at 1% and have stayed there since.
But now we're back to a voting day. Four states weigh in on Saturday, with a primary in Lousiana and caucuses set for Maine, Kentucky and Kansas. The delegate math won't move much today. None of these states are winner-take-all and all four candidates can expect to win at least some in one or more states. The real test today is whether an intense week of anti-Tump effort can anyone slow his momentum. Here are a few good things to watch for:
1. How many states does Trump win? He's a heavy favorite in Maine, Louisiana and Kentucky. Cruz should win Kansas, but Trump was leading in the most recent poll. If Trump gets four wins today, that's a pretty resounding rejection of the #NeverTrump movement by the base.
2. Can Kasich win Maine? John Kasich is the only candidate still running without benefit of having won a contest yet. But he has done well in New England so far, having finished in 2nd place in New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts. If Thursday's debate has really created a groundswell for a candidate more mature than the shrieking babies he has shared this stage with, then he just might be competitive in Maine. A victory will help him enormously going forward, especially in Michigan.
3. Can Cruz pull an upset somewhere? Cruz should win Kansas. It's a closed caucus and it's right in the alley of the other states he's won (OK and TX to the south, Iowa to the Northeast.) Winning there is expected. But if he pulls off an upset in KY or LA, then he can make an undisputed claim as the most viable alternative to Donald Trump.
4. Will Rubio even get a 2nd place? Marco Rubio has been abandoned by the establishment and by Fox News in particular. In between Nevada and Super Tuesday, Marco got on the gutter with Trump and came out of it looking worse for wear. It's not hart to imagine him finishing 3rd in all four places and he might be 4th in Maine. That will hurt his images very much and I don't think a likely win in Puerto Rico on Sunday will do him any particular favors going forward in the GOP.
5. How big of a number can Trump put up in Louisiana. It's the only primary today and it's in the deep south, where Trump has done especially well so far. If he gets over 40% he starts to look like a presumptive nominee rather than just a front runner. Rubio could also miss the 20% mark here which would mean he gets no delegates from another sizable state. He can't let happen.
Predictions:
1. Louisiana: Trump 43%, Cruz 27%, Rubio 19%, Kasich 10%.
2. Kentucky: Trump 34%, Cruz 30%, Rubio 27%, Kasich 9%
3. Kansas Cruz 37%, Trump 32%, Rubio 22%, Kaich 9%
4. Maine Trump 28%, Kasich 27%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 19%
So rough night for Rubio, again. I think at noon on Sunday the Predictwise market will look like this:
Trump 77%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 5%
Rubio 4%
Ryan 1%
Romney 1%
By the way I think Ryan is the best buy in this market. He's a much more logical consensus pick at a brokered convention than Romney. If the establishment is out to get Trump, then he's well positioned. But I think their opportunity to do that depends on Trump losing both Ohio and Florida and I don't think that is likely. After March 15th the GOP will have two choices: nominate Trump or screw him out of the nomination. I'm really not sure which is worse for them in the long term.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
What to Watch For
So tonight is probably the night that Trump goes from front-runner to all but certain nominee. I do not think it will be possible for another candidate to get a delegate majority but after today, even if Trump romps, it will still be possible to deny him an outright majority of delegates.
He is heavily favored to win 10 of the 12 GOP contests being held today and he also leads in Minnesota by a closer margin. Ted Cruz is likely to win Texas but probably won't do well in other places.
Here are the most important things to watch for tonight.
1. Can Rubio salvage a win? There are at least two states where he has a more than theoretical chance of winning-Minnesota and Virginia. If he wins both we can expect an avalanche of endorsements running towards him the rest of this week. If he gets a split, he at least avoids the talking point that he can't win anywhere. If he loses everywhere than he is probably doomed.
2. Can Rubio get 20% in Texas? Texas' delegates are awarded proportionally unless the winner exceeds 50% of the vote. I don't think Cruz will get to that number. In order get a share of the delegates a candidate must receive at least 20% of the vote. If Rubio doesn't hit that number, than Trump and Cruz will split all 155 of those delegates. That's 31 delegates that Rubio could lose by a very close margin. He can not let that happen.
3. Can Rubio keep it close in Georgia? Trump broke out the heavy guns in Georgia yesterday: Bill France the head of NASCAR. Most recent polls have Trump with a big lead but with Rubio pulling head of Cruz in second place. If he has a prayer of being the nominee, this is a state where he will close well.
4. Can Bernie win anywhere other than Vermont? Minnesota, Colorado, Oklahoma and Massachusetts should all be competitive for the Democrats tonight. Hillary will roll to big victories everywhere else.
5. Will Kasich show any signs of live? He should compete in Vermont and Massachusetts. I don't think he will win either but his path to the nomination involves denying Trump a majority, winning some big northern states and then hoping to be the consensus grown up choice at the convention.
6. Can Trump get to 50.1% in Alabama? If so he wins all 50 delegates there. That's when the math really starts to look bad for the Field.
Official Predictions for Super Tuesday.
GOP: Trump wins everywhere except TX (Cruz) and MN (Rubio)
Texas: Cruz 41% Trump 29% Rubio 21% Carson 5% Kasich 4%
Minnesota: Rubio 41%, Trump 39%, Cruz 14%, Kasich 6%
Georgia: Trump 49%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 18%, Carson 6%
Alabama: Trump 52%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 19%, Carson 5%
DEM: Clinton wins everywhere except VT, OK & CO
Vermont: Sanders 84%, Clinton 15%
Oklahoma: Sanders 52%, Clinton 48%
Colorado: Sanders 51%, Clinton 48%
Minnesota: Clinton 53%, Sanders 47%
Massachusetts: Clinton 54%, Sanders 46%
He is heavily favored to win 10 of the 12 GOP contests being held today and he also leads in Minnesota by a closer margin. Ted Cruz is likely to win Texas but probably won't do well in other places.
Here are the most important things to watch for tonight.
1. Can Rubio salvage a win? There are at least two states where he has a more than theoretical chance of winning-Minnesota and Virginia. If he wins both we can expect an avalanche of endorsements running towards him the rest of this week. If he gets a split, he at least avoids the talking point that he can't win anywhere. If he loses everywhere than he is probably doomed.
2. Can Rubio get 20% in Texas? Texas' delegates are awarded proportionally unless the winner exceeds 50% of the vote. I don't think Cruz will get to that number. In order get a share of the delegates a candidate must receive at least 20% of the vote. If Rubio doesn't hit that number, than Trump and Cruz will split all 155 of those delegates. That's 31 delegates that Rubio could lose by a very close margin. He can not let that happen.
3. Can Rubio keep it close in Georgia? Trump broke out the heavy guns in Georgia yesterday: Bill France the head of NASCAR. Most recent polls have Trump with a big lead but with Rubio pulling head of Cruz in second place. If he has a prayer of being the nominee, this is a state where he will close well.
4. Can Bernie win anywhere other than Vermont? Minnesota, Colorado, Oklahoma and Massachusetts should all be competitive for the Democrats tonight. Hillary will roll to big victories everywhere else.
5. Will Kasich show any signs of live? He should compete in Vermont and Massachusetts. I don't think he will win either but his path to the nomination involves denying Trump a majority, winning some big northern states and then hoping to be the consensus grown up choice at the convention.
6. Can Trump get to 50.1% in Alabama? If so he wins all 50 delegates there. That's when the math really starts to look bad for the Field.
Official Predictions for Super Tuesday.
GOP: Trump wins everywhere except TX (Cruz) and MN (Rubio)
Texas: Cruz 41% Trump 29% Rubio 21% Carson 5% Kasich 4%
Minnesota: Rubio 41%, Trump 39%, Cruz 14%, Kasich 6%
Georgia: Trump 49%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 18%, Carson 6%
Alabama: Trump 52%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 19%, Carson 5%
DEM: Clinton wins everywhere except VT, OK & CO
Vermont: Sanders 84%, Clinton 15%
Oklahoma: Sanders 52%, Clinton 48%
Colorado: Sanders 51%, Clinton 48%
Minnesota: Clinton 53%, Sanders 47%
Massachusetts: Clinton 54%, Sanders 46%
Monday, February 8, 2016
New Hampshire Forecast
After a three month break from blogging about the Republican race I updated my forecast last night just as the GOP debate was getting underway. Nothing in the debate has caused me to adjust that latest prediction. Rubio had a bad night but I don't think it will do any long term damage to him. He remains the favorite to be nominated.
The New Hampshire dynamic is sort of odd. Everyone knows the winner will be Donald Trump. The most intriguing questions are what percentage of the vote he will get, who the other top candidates from Iowa will do and who will emerge as the establishment alternative to all three of them. The most likely outcome is that Trump will win, and the 2nd through 7th spot will be a jumbled mix of establishment types, Rubio and Cruz. Probably four or five of those six candidates will be bunched within a few points of each other. So I'm going to focus on a range of possibilities.
What we know:
1. Trump will finish first. If he doesn't, then his campaign is in free fall and he will quit by Wednesday.
2. Gilmore will finish 9th.
3. Fiorina will finish 8th. If she somehow sneaks up to 7th, then Ben Carson really crashed hard.
4. Carson will finish 7th. It's more and more obvious that he's not serious about winning and he's not qualified and he's not always lucid. He will stick around for SC, if only to spite Ted Cruz for his dirty Iowa tricks.
What I'm Pretty Sure of:
1. Rubio and Cruz will be in the middle of the pack. If either of them comes 2nd, they will rightly declare victory. Short of that, the goal is to beat the other one> I give Rubio the inside track there. I think he's good for 3rd place at least and Cruz will probably not do better than 4th.
2. Kasich might finish 2nd, and that would change the race. If Kasich finishes second, there are definitely four viable candidates heading to South Carolina. If he narrowly beats out Rubio for 2nd, then the conventional wisdom will be that the debate put him over the top.
3. Jeb will be in the middle of the pack but won't drop out. He could finish as bad as sixth place so he can craft anything higher than that as a semi-victory. I think he presses on to SC now matter what and take the triple bank shot of hoping that his family name, quasi-southern background and the support of Lindsey Graham are enough to make him a contender there.
What We'll Learn on Tuesday Night.
1. Christie is probably toast. If he finishes 5th or 6th, he will probably drop out. He finished 8th in Iowa and doesn't seem likely to do well in SC. But if he's top four in NH, he will try to soldier on as the establishment alternative.
2. Will Carson benefit from a Cruz backlash? If he finishes higher than 7th it probably means that Cruz cratered and a lot of that will be blamed on the stunt that Cruz pulled in Iowa.
3. How big will Trump's win be? Anything over 30% is big news. It means there is a very really swath of the party that buys his message and that he can compete anywhere that's not too heavily evangelical.
So my official predictions are this: Trump wins with 31%. Kasich and Rubio in a virtual tie (but with slightly more votes for Kasich than Rubio) for second at 16% ahead of Cruz in 4th and Bush in 5th. Christie gets about 7% for sixth place and he bows out by Thursday. Carson gets around 5% of dead enders, Fiorina 3% and Gilmore (rounding up) gets 1%.
Oh yeah, the Democrats.
Bernie will win. I'll put my official prediction at 56-44. If it's much bigger than that, there will be panic in Clintonville.
Scoreboard.
In some ways, vote share is a bigger deal tomorrow night than the order in which the candidates finish. Both winners are all but certain. Here are the numbers to watch for:
1. Can Trump get over 30%
2. Can Rubio get close to 20%
3. Can Bernie approach 60%
Whoever hits the number above with the most to spare will be the biggest story of the night. Other important numbers:
1. Whoever finishes last among Kasich, Christie and Bush is toast. If that person is Christie, he'll drop out. Bush will stick around for SC and Kasich probably will try to hang on for Super Tuesday though.
2. Any candidate who fails to break double digits tomorrow night is in trouble.
3. Cruz can treat 4th as a victory if he gets there.
4. Hillary will need to spin her defeat someway. I remember Carville's line from 1992 was that Clinton won the Primary if you didn't count the counties that share a border with Paul Tsongas' home state of Massachusetts. Someone is juking the expected stats to come up with a new version of that silver lining.
The New Hampshire dynamic is sort of odd. Everyone knows the winner will be Donald Trump. The most intriguing questions are what percentage of the vote he will get, who the other top candidates from Iowa will do and who will emerge as the establishment alternative to all three of them. The most likely outcome is that Trump will win, and the 2nd through 7th spot will be a jumbled mix of establishment types, Rubio and Cruz. Probably four or five of those six candidates will be bunched within a few points of each other. So I'm going to focus on a range of possibilities.
What we know:
1. Trump will finish first. If he doesn't, then his campaign is in free fall and he will quit by Wednesday.
2. Gilmore will finish 9th.
3. Fiorina will finish 8th. If she somehow sneaks up to 7th, then Ben Carson really crashed hard.
4. Carson will finish 7th. It's more and more obvious that he's not serious about winning and he's not qualified and he's not always lucid. He will stick around for SC, if only to spite Ted Cruz for his dirty Iowa tricks.
What I'm Pretty Sure of:
1. Rubio and Cruz will be in the middle of the pack. If either of them comes 2nd, they will rightly declare victory. Short of that, the goal is to beat the other one> I give Rubio the inside track there. I think he's good for 3rd place at least and Cruz will probably not do better than 4th.
2. Kasich might finish 2nd, and that would change the race. If Kasich finishes second, there are definitely four viable candidates heading to South Carolina. If he narrowly beats out Rubio for 2nd, then the conventional wisdom will be that the debate put him over the top.
3. Jeb will be in the middle of the pack but won't drop out. He could finish as bad as sixth place so he can craft anything higher than that as a semi-victory. I think he presses on to SC now matter what and take the triple bank shot of hoping that his family name, quasi-southern background and the support of Lindsey Graham are enough to make him a contender there.
What We'll Learn on Tuesday Night.
1. Christie is probably toast. If he finishes 5th or 6th, he will probably drop out. He finished 8th in Iowa and doesn't seem likely to do well in SC. But if he's top four in NH, he will try to soldier on as the establishment alternative.
2. Will Carson benefit from a Cruz backlash? If he finishes higher than 7th it probably means that Cruz cratered and a lot of that will be blamed on the stunt that Cruz pulled in Iowa.
3. How big will Trump's win be? Anything over 30% is big news. It means there is a very really swath of the party that buys his message and that he can compete anywhere that's not too heavily evangelical.
So my official predictions are this: Trump wins with 31%. Kasich and Rubio in a virtual tie (but with slightly more votes for Kasich than Rubio) for second at 16% ahead of Cruz in 4th and Bush in 5th. Christie gets about 7% for sixth place and he bows out by Thursday. Carson gets around 5% of dead enders, Fiorina 3% and Gilmore (rounding up) gets 1%.
Oh yeah, the Democrats.
Bernie will win. I'll put my official prediction at 56-44. If it's much bigger than that, there will be panic in Clintonville.
Scoreboard.
In some ways, vote share is a bigger deal tomorrow night than the order in which the candidates finish. Both winners are all but certain. Here are the numbers to watch for:
1. Can Trump get over 30%
2. Can Rubio get close to 20%
3. Can Bernie approach 60%
Whoever hits the number above with the most to spare will be the biggest story of the night. Other important numbers:
1. Whoever finishes last among Kasich, Christie and Bush is toast. If that person is Christie, he'll drop out. Bush will stick around for SC and Kasich probably will try to hang on for Super Tuesday though.
2. Any candidate who fails to break double digits tomorrow night is in trouble.
3. Cruz can treat 4th as a victory if he gets there.
4. Hillary will need to spin her defeat someway. I remember Carville's line from 1992 was that Clinton won the Primary if you didn't count the counties that share a border with Paul Tsongas' home state of Massachusetts. Someone is juking the expected stats to come up with a new version of that silver lining.
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Second GOP Debate Preview
For the past several months I have been intending to write a preview of next year's general election. But this Republican primary is just too entertaining to not obsess on their sideshow. Their second debate is tomorrow night and I wanted to update my forecast before this blessed event. But first a few observations about The Greatest Show on Earth
What We Have Learned About the 2016 Electorate.
1. The Fox News Effect is Real. For seven years the yammering faces of Fox News have been selling their audience a steady stream of anger and vitriol directed towards the President and sometimes toward the Republican establishment. The audience bought it. And now the closest proximity to this product in the field is Donald Trump. A frequent contributor to Fox & Friends, Trump has merely taken his shtick to the competitive field. And the same people are buying it.
The most entertaining thing on television is watching Fox personalities like Charles Krauthamer and George Will act completely perplexed by Trump's domination of the field. They seem to legitimately not understand why the same people who watch their shows are enamored with the idea of a brash jerk who likes to insult people and offer simplistic solutions to all the world's problems. It's like they didn't know O'Reilly and Hannity have shows on their channel. If Trump is the Monster of this election cycle, then Rupert Murdoch is its Doctor Frankenstein.
2. Trump's Citizens United Jujitsu is Pure Brilliance. The biggest problem in the American political system was created by the Supreme Court just a few years ago, when they essentially deregulated Super PACs. The political process is now dominated by ever-larger donations from an ever-small class of extremely rich people. The problem seemed to favor the Republican party who therefore had no incentive to do anything to reverse it. But they may soon be regretting that because Donald Trump's number one talking point has been that he is immune to the obvious corruption created by this system. He's self-financing his campaign and he does not have a Super PAC. His number one talking point is stating the obvious: the rest of the field is compromised by these donations and they enter office under a cloud of malfeasance for all the favors they owe people.
Despair is the growing mood surrounding this election. But if you're the optimistic sort, then you might want to ponder the possibility that Trump mania just might convince the Republican party that unlimited donations by a tiny class of oligarchs is not the way to run a democracy. Who knows, maybe they will even agree to some non-trivial reforms. But only if they get their ass kicked first.
Despair is the growing mood surrounding this election. But if you're the optimistic sort, then you might want to ponder the possibility that Trump mania just might convince the Republican party that unlimited donations by a tiny class of oligarchs is not the way to run a democracy. Who knows, maybe they will even agree to some non-trivial reforms. But only if they get their ass kicked first.
3. The Republican Base Hates the Republican Establishment. At the start of the primary season I thought three candidates had clear, reasonable paths to the nomination: Rubio, Walker and Bush. Nate Silver agreed with my assessment, saying that each of these three candidates had approximately 25% chance of being the nominee, with the remaining quarter spread out among the field. The most recent polling in Iowa and New Hampshire have all of these men stuck in the mid single digits. Some polls have them getting 12 or 13 percent...combined. (The most recent national poll has Scott Walker at just 2 percent; Bush and Rubio are tied at six.)
Trump's rise is only party explained by his incredibly brash persona. The second layer of his popularity is explained by his ability to whip up the base's emotions without committing to some of the really stupid aspects of Republican dogma. He's willing to say things about taxes, healthcare and even the Iran deal that would get Rubio, Walker or Bush killed by the right-wing talking heads. The path forward is very long and filled with booby traps. It is unlikely that Trump will navigate them all safely. But it's a lot more likely than anyone other than Trump himself could have forecast just 60 or 90 days ago.
4. Hillary is still a lousy candidate but also still the heavy favorite to win the election.
The Questions I Would Ask.
If I were a panelist and had the opportunity to ask the candidates one question each, I would ask the following (in rough order of polling status):
1. Donald Trump. You have indicated a willingness to raise income tax rates on wealthy Americans. If so, what is the lowest income amount that you would consider raising rates on. (Hopefully he'll give some spectacular Lucille Bluth answer like "How much can one banana cost, ten dollars?)
2. Ben Carson. Doctor Carsson, Governor Jerry Brown of California recently sent you a flash drive filled with information about the evidence for climate change. Have you reviewed that evidence and what is your assessment of its merits? (I'd make his title sound like Tommy Lee Jones announcing the manhunt for "Doctor" Richard Kimble.)
3. Jeb Bush. You recently announced a tax plan. Outside experts have calculated that 53% of these cuts will benefit the wealthiest 1% of society. Is that enough?
4. Marco Rubio. You seem like a polite young man. Say something nice about Hillary Clinton.
5. Ted Cruz. You went to Princeton and Harvard Law School. Shouldn't you know better?
6. Mike Huckabee. Do you believe the first amendment of the constitution applies equally to Christianity and other religions and why not?
7. Carly Fiorina. The value of HP stock surged by three billion dollars when your resignation was announced. Why was Wall Street so glad to see you go?
8. John Kasich. You are one very few Republican governors who accepted an expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare. Has this decision benefited Ohio and would you as President encourage other states to expand Medicaid further?
9. Rand Paul. Would you be willing to make any reduction to the foreign aid that the United States gives to Israel?
10. Scott Walker. Do you think your anti-union policies will be a hindrance to the Republican party in the general election if you are the nominee?
11. Chris Christie. You once behaved decently toward the President of the United States during a major natural disaster. One a scale of 9 to 10, how much do you regret that decision?
And no, I'm not wasting my time on questions for the kiddie table debate.
Without further, ado, I spill out a little of my 40 for Rick Perry's Historic 17th place finish and give you this:
Updated Forecast.
| Candidate | Pre 1st debate | Post 1st Debate | Pre 2nd Debate | Change |
| Trump | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Bush | 34 | 31 | 24 | -7 |
| Walker | 32 | 29 | 22 | -7 |
| Rubio | 23 | 28 | 26 | -2 |
| Huckabee | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| Santorum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Paul | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cruz | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Kasich | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Carson | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Christie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jindal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fiorina | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Graham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Perry | 0 | 0 | X | -- |
| Pataki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gilmore | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| The Field | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
.
Saturday, August 8, 2015
1st GOP Debate Fall Out
The biggest news from the first debate is that Fox News has turned on Donald Trump. For all 7 years of the Obama presidency they have happily given him a platform to pronounce how terrible the Obama administration is. Once or twice a week he would phone into "Fox & Friends" and plug up some air time with his droll commentary about where Obama was born and why China was "beating" the United States at everything. It was a symbiotic relationship.
Once Trump announced he was running for president, they had to scale back his presence on the shows. But the Fox team seemed to enjoy the early moments of Trump mania. But eventually it got out of hand. By the time of the first debate, he was doubling the nearest competitor in all the early state polls. (He actually has a 3 to 1 lead in South Carolina, a state not known for loving Yankees.)
The debate was crafted to make Trump look as bad as possible. They started with a show of hands question designed to make the crowd boo him. Then Megyn Kelly called him on his sexism. The very same shtick that her network has ridden for ratings glory the past 7 years was now being used as a cudgel against his orange-quaffed head. Things didn't get much better after that. By the end of the night, Mr. Trump was staying up at his beautiful, classy, luxurious, Cleveland hotel room tweeting about how mean Megyn was to him. Thirty tweets in all, between the hours of 2:30 and 4:30 AM.
The next day he continued the attack against Fox pollster Frank Luntz, calling him a loser who once tried to beg for consulting work with Trump's empire. Priceless stuff. The best outcome of this nuthouse in-fighting has been the new conspiracy theory that the Trump campaign is actually an outgrowth of a collusion between Trump and the Clintons to get Hillary elected. This has the very ring of all the right-wing conspiracy theories. Trump won't be the nominee. But he might run as a third party candidate. Now he might just run to spite Fox News. And next year, if Hillary wins with say, 50% of the vote, to Rubio or Bush's 46% and Trump's 3 or 4 percent, the teeming masses of low-information votes will know who to blame. But there will be plenty of blame to go around, for both Dr. Frankenstein and the Monster he waited too long to kill.
On a happier note, two candidates stood out during the debates. Marco Rubio was the clear winner on substance in the prime-time debate. He still comes across as a little too green for the Oval Office, but he had the best night. And in the earlier debate Carly Fiorina stood out for her ruthless ability to say mean things about Hillary Clinton. She is having a moment, and I expect this will lead to her making the prime-time debate next time around, probably at the expense of Chris Christie. Christie was 9th in the polls before Cleveland but Kasich also had a solid performance and Christie was obviously underwhelming to the Republican crowd. I think he will slip to 11th.
Fiorina now has a path to the nomination. It is remote and it will probably go away as people begin to look at her dreadful record as CEO of Hewlet-Packard. But she connected with the base and she has a certain "Little Engine That Could" feel to her now. If Fox News continues to turn on Trump, she may become their new darling.
Before the prime-time debate I went to Paddy Power, an Irish betting web site and wrote down the betting line for each of the top ten candidates to win the nomination. I post them below next to the current odds, about 36 hours after the first debate. There has been very little movement after the debate among the top ten, although Walker and Kasih got modes bounces. I did not note what Fiorina's odds were before the debates, but I'm sure they were longer than 20 to 1. She has had the most buzz in the past 48 hours, and I'm sure the punters have noticed.
Now back to my subtective forecast. I have 4 columns this time, fore my pre-debate numbers, Nate Silver's pre-debate numbers, my current numbers and the change in my numbers before and after the debate. I don't think Nate Silver has updated his subjective forecast yet. He's not very big on subjective and I suspect he'll only do it again right before Iowa.
There are only 4 crooked numbers in that last column. These reflect Rubio gaining a bit at the expense of the other 2 top tier candidates and Carly Fiorina getting her boomlet.
Once Trump announced he was running for president, they had to scale back his presence on the shows. But the Fox team seemed to enjoy the early moments of Trump mania. But eventually it got out of hand. By the time of the first debate, he was doubling the nearest competitor in all the early state polls. (He actually has a 3 to 1 lead in South Carolina, a state not known for loving Yankees.)
The debate was crafted to make Trump look as bad as possible. They started with a show of hands question designed to make the crowd boo him. Then Megyn Kelly called him on his sexism. The very same shtick that her network has ridden for ratings glory the past 7 years was now being used as a cudgel against his orange-quaffed head. Things didn't get much better after that. By the end of the night, Mr. Trump was staying up at his beautiful, classy, luxurious, Cleveland hotel room tweeting about how mean Megyn was to him. Thirty tweets in all, between the hours of 2:30 and 4:30 AM.
The next day he continued the attack against Fox pollster Frank Luntz, calling him a loser who once tried to beg for consulting work with Trump's empire. Priceless stuff. The best outcome of this nuthouse in-fighting has been the new conspiracy theory that the Trump campaign is actually an outgrowth of a collusion between Trump and the Clintons to get Hillary elected. This has the very ring of all the right-wing conspiracy theories. Trump won't be the nominee. But he might run as a third party candidate. Now he might just run to spite Fox News. And next year, if Hillary wins with say, 50% of the vote, to Rubio or Bush's 46% and Trump's 3 or 4 percent, the teeming masses of low-information votes will know who to blame. But there will be plenty of blame to go around, for both Dr. Frankenstein and the Monster he waited too long to kill.
On a happier note, two candidates stood out during the debates. Marco Rubio was the clear winner on substance in the prime-time debate. He still comes across as a little too green for the Oval Office, but he had the best night. And in the earlier debate Carly Fiorina stood out for her ruthless ability to say mean things about Hillary Clinton. She is having a moment, and I expect this will lead to her making the prime-time debate next time around, probably at the expense of Chris Christie. Christie was 9th in the polls before Cleveland but Kasich also had a solid performance and Christie was obviously underwhelming to the Republican crowd. I think he will slip to 11th.
Fiorina now has a path to the nomination. It is remote and it will probably go away as people begin to look at her dreadful record as CEO of Hewlet-Packard. But she connected with the base and she has a certain "Little Engine That Could" feel to her now. If Fox News continues to turn on Trump, she may become their new darling.
Before the prime-time debate I went to Paddy Power, an Irish betting web site and wrote down the betting line for each of the top ten candidates to win the nomination. I post them below next to the current odds, about 36 hours after the first debate. There has been very little movement after the debate among the top ten, although Walker and Kasih got modes bounces. I did not note what Fiorina's odds were before the debates, but I'm sure they were longer than 20 to 1. She has had the most buzz in the past 48 hours, and I'm sure the punters have noticed.
| Paddy Power | Pre-debate | Post Debate |
| Trump | 8 to 1 | 8 to 1 |
| Bush | 5 to 4 | 5 to 4 |
| Walker | 4 to 1 | 5 to 2 |
| Rubio | 6 to 1 | 7 to 1 |
| Huckabee | 20 to 1 | 25 to 1 |
| Santorum | n/a | 40 to 1 |
| Paul | 10 to 1 | 10 to 1 |
| Cruz | 25 to 1 | 25 to 1 |
| Kasich | 16 to 1 | 14 to 1 |
| Carson | 16 to 1 | 20 to 1 |
| Christie | n/a | 16 to 1 |
| Jindal | n/a | 33 to 1 |
| Fiorina | n/a | 20 to 1 |
| Graham | n/a | 66 to 1 |
| Perry | n/a | 40 to 1 |
| Pataki | n/a | 66 to 1 |
| Gilmore | n/a | 66 to 1 |
Now back to my subtective forecast. I have 4 columns this time, fore my pre-debate numbers, Nate Silver's pre-debate numbers, my current numbers and the change in my numbers before and after the debate. I don't think Nate Silver has updated his subjective forecast yet. He's not very big on subjective and I suspect he'll only do it again right before Iowa.
| Candidate | Pre-debate | Nate Silver | Post 1st Debate | Change |
| Trump | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Bush | 34 | 28 | 31 | -3 |
| Walker | 32 | 28 | 29 | -3 |
| Rubio | 23 | 21 | 28 | 5 |
| Huckabee | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Santorum | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Paul | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| Cruz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kasich | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Carson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christie | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jindal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fiorina | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Perry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pataki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gilmore | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| The Field | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
There are only 4 crooked numbers in that last column. These reflect Rubio gaining a bit at the expense of the other 2 top tier candidates and Carly Fiorina getting her boomlet.
Thursday, August 6, 2015
First GOP Debate Reactions
First impressions of the performance of the candidates. I list them by how much pre-debate buzz they had generated.
1. Trump. He was exactly what we expected because that is the only thing he is capable of being. He may recede in the polls, but that was going to happen anyway. I don't think anyone landed a good punch on him, which may be a sign of maturity. I think the serious candidates know that he's not a real threat. (Kudos to Fox News for getting the crowd to boo him by asking the candidates if they would pledge to endorse the eventual Republican nominee.)
2. Bush: didn't do great. They may call him Vito Corleone in Florida, but I'm beginning to think he's still called Fredo at family reunions.
3. Walker: Boring, as advertised. But he didn't really need to do much tonight and he didn't have any Perry like "Ooops" moments, and that's probably all he needed to accomplish.
4. Rubio. The clear winner, in my view. He looked mature and articulate and I think he may get a modest bounce out of this event.
5. Carson: He's a really bright guy who got all of his non-medical information by listening to Rush Limbaugh to and from Johns Hopkins. And any candidate who doesn't know shit about the Baltic Republics is dead to me.
6. Paul. He obviously was told by his staffers that he needed to make an impression and he came out swinging but I don't think he made much of an impression either way.
7. Kasich. He had obvious home-court advantage but he didn't do much with it.
8. Cruz: Wow, did he come out flat. I think he is used to formal, competitive debates and that does not translate well into these televised joint television appearances. He might be the biggest disappointment of the night. But I also think he will prep like hell for the next one and come out swinging.
9. Huckabee. Solid but bland. He's destined for the back of the pack so who cares?
10 Christie. Pretty much an after-thought His whole shtick of being the straight talker has been stolen away by the man at the middle podium.
Upshot: I think Rubio will close the gap on Walker and Bush in the next few weeks. No one else made much of an impression. Trump will begin to fade over time, but that was going to happen anyway.
What did we learn? Trump will probably run as a 3rd party candidate and if he does next year's debates will be awesome!
1. Trump. He was exactly what we expected because that is the only thing he is capable of being. He may recede in the polls, but that was going to happen anyway. I don't think anyone landed a good punch on him, which may be a sign of maturity. I think the serious candidates know that he's not a real threat. (Kudos to Fox News for getting the crowd to boo him by asking the candidates if they would pledge to endorse the eventual Republican nominee.)
2. Bush: didn't do great. They may call him Vito Corleone in Florida, but I'm beginning to think he's still called Fredo at family reunions.
3. Walker: Boring, as advertised. But he didn't really need to do much tonight and he didn't have any Perry like "Ooops" moments, and that's probably all he needed to accomplish.
4. Rubio. The clear winner, in my view. He looked mature and articulate and I think he may get a modest bounce out of this event.
5. Carson: He's a really bright guy who got all of his non-medical information by listening to Rush Limbaugh to and from Johns Hopkins. And any candidate who doesn't know shit about the Baltic Republics is dead to me.
6. Paul. He obviously was told by his staffers that he needed to make an impression and he came out swinging but I don't think he made much of an impression either way.
7. Kasich. He had obvious home-court advantage but he didn't do much with it.
8. Cruz: Wow, did he come out flat. I think he is used to formal, competitive debates and that does not translate well into these televised joint television appearances. He might be the biggest disappointment of the night. But I also think he will prep like hell for the next one and come out swinging.
9. Huckabee. Solid but bland. He's destined for the back of the pack so who cares?
10 Christie. Pretty much an after-thought His whole shtick of being the straight talker has been stolen away by the man at the middle podium.
Upshot: I think Rubio will close the gap on Walker and Bush in the next few weeks. No one else made much of an impression. Trump will begin to fade over time, but that was going to happen anyway.
What did we learn? Trump will probably run as a 3rd party candidate and if he does next year's debates will be awesome!
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