I. The State of the Race.
I have not had a reason to update my map since late July. For all the daily weirdness of the Trump campaign, the race has been pretty stable. Kamala Harris is a slight favorite. She will probably win the popular vote but there are enough very close states to keep the winner uncertain.
The simple version of the race is this. Harris is likely to win states worth 226 electoral votes. She has to win 44 more votes among the seven swing states. At the moment, I classify them this way:
Leaning Harris: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and (just slightly) Pennsylvania.
True Toss-ups: North Carolina and Georgia.
Leaning Trump: Arizona
So Harris probably has just enough votes to win the election as it is polling now. There are five weeks to go. While there will certainly be unexpected news, there aren't many big events left on the calendar. Which leads us to tonight.
II. The Vice-Presidential Debate.
The VP debates are almost never consequential. The most memorable moment in their history was when Lloyd Bentsen insulted Dan Quayle for presuming to compare himself to John F. Kennedy. Bush-Quayle crushed Dukakis-Bentsen that November.
Tim Walz has been a great candidate so far. His favorable numbers are by far the best of all four candidates and he hasn't committed any gaffes. No dirt has come to light and his super power of normalcy has been a refreshing change of pace.
J.D. Vance has brought absolutely nothing to the Trump team. He has said a lot of dumb things and never, ever looks comfortable on the campaign trail. People do not like him and they are right to not like him.
But the previous paragraphs only set the expectatio0ns for tonight. Vance is a pretty smooth speaker when he has a script and he had the oddly misplaced confidence of a much smarter man. He could do well tonight. Well enough to exceed expectations at least. And in a pinch, he is not afraid to lie.
III. The Questions That Should Be Asked.
1. To Tim Walz, "Vice-President Harris and you have derided Trump's plan to place a tariff on all imported goods. But Joe Biden has kept many Trump-era tariffs in place. What metrics would you use to determine the difference between good and bad tariffs?"
2. To J.D. Vance: "After spreading the false rumor that immigrants from Haiti in Springfield, Ohio were eating pets, you said that you felt the need "to create stories so that the media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people." How should voters know when you are telling the truth and when you are making stuff up?
3. To Tim Walz. "Does the United States of America admit too many, too few or just the right number of legal immigrants to this country? What criteria would you use to determine what that number should be?"
4. To J.D. Vance: "If you become president in the next four years, would you sign a national ban on abortion and if so, what would be the parameters of that ban as to length of pregnancy and exceptions for medical emergencies."
5. To Tim Walz, "Are there any specific programs or areas of the military budget that you believe should be reduced or eliminated?
6. To JD Vance, "Was the 2020 presidential election free and fair and who was the lawful winner of that election?"
7. For both candidates, "What benefits does the United States get from its relationship with Israel and are there any changes that you would make to how the United States provides aid to Israel?"
With five weeks to go the election is probably about a 60/40 tilt in favor of Kamala Harris. Tonight probably won't change that dynamic. I don't think it will much change how people feel about Tim Walz. But J.D. Vance could do a lot of good for himself by just being normal. I'm not sure he has it in him.
