2020 Democratic Field, Take 3

I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.

This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates.  If thier standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis.  Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.

Tip of the 40 ounce to Sherrod Brown, who decided to sit this race out and hope for a VP call.

Five That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar. 
2. Kamala Harris  
3. Beto O'Rourke 
The reaction to his launch on liberal social media was surprisingly negative. But he has talent and he will win find his feet and be a force.
4. Elizabeth Warren  
She has put forth the most specific and substantive policy ideas so far.
5. Chris Murphy
Seems less likely to run.

Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
6. Kristin Gillibrand 
Uninspiring so far, which is why I moved her down to the second tier of my personal choices.
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Joe Biden (9)
10. Mitch Landrieu
11. Tim Ryan
12. John Hickenlooper
13. Jay Inslee
14. Julian Castro (Unranked)

Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
15.  Andrew Cuomo 
16. Terry McAuliffe 
17.  Corey Booker 
18. Pete Buttigieg 
He had a good cable TV roll out on CNN and raised 600K. I still think he's running solely to raise his profile, but it's worth acknowledging that he's already done that, a bit.

Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
19.  Bernie Sanders (21)
20.  Tom Steyer
21. The Field of Dumb Celebrities

One WHAT THE FUCK?
22. Tulsi Gabbard.  (Unranked)

II.  The 2020 Hourse Race.

The Top Tier Candidates.

1. Bernie Sanders  16%/60%

2. Joe Biden   14%/70%

3. Kamala Harris 14%/65%

4. Elizabeth Warren 11%/60%

5. Corey Booker 6%/50%

Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps

6. Beto O'Rourke  9%/70%

7. Amy Klobuchar 9%/70% To win, you have to run. That's why she leap frogged Beto.

Third Tier: Plausible But Flawd.

8. Kristin Gillibrand 3%/57%

9. Andrew Cuomo 1%/60%

10. Terry McCauliffe 1%/60%

11. Chris Murphy 1%/65%.

Fourth Tier: Long Shots.

If Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, John Delaney  or Eric Swaell somehow get through this crowded field, then they possess political skills of formidable depth and would be the favorite to win against Trump.  

If Buttigieg, Gabbard or Some Dumb Celebrity is the nominee, Trump will probably win.

2020 Democratic Field, Take Two

The 2020 race is officially underway. Most of the major candidates have announced and have begun to hire staff. So it's time to update my power rankings.

I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.

This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates.  If thier standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis.  Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.

But first, a quick word about two candidates that have already left this race: Los Angelas Mayor Eric Garcetti was number 15 on my first list and Starbucks billioniare of means Howard Schultz was number 21.  Gargetti merely declined to enter a crowded field. But Schultz decided to act on some terrible advice and test the waters of an independent self-financed campaign that is probably going to be remembered as the most awful abortive campaign for president of all time. Or at least for all of 2020.

Six That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar. 
I think her announcement in the Minnesota snow was great. And the stories aboout her being a demanding boss only make think she's qualified to do the job.
2. Kamala Harris (3). 
A very strong start with solid telivised appearances.
3. Beto O'Rourke (2)
He's starting to look a little not-quite ready for this race. That dental chair gimmick was dumb.
4. Elizabeth Warren 
So far, she's the most willing to throw mud back at the incumbent. I don't think that hurts her for now.
5. Chris Murphy
Seems less likely to run.
6. Kristin Gillibrand
She's running a polite and cautious race so far.   

Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
7. Sherrod Brown (10)
He's impressed me so far. Much more pragmatic than I expected him to be. I'm starting to think his appeal is broad enough to win.
8. Steve Bullock (7)
9. Joe Biden (8)
I'm slightly surprised that he hasn't announced yet but with his name recognition, he can afford to wait longer than most others.
10. Mitch Landrieu
11. Michael Blomberg
12. Tim Ryan
13. John Hickenlooper
14. Jay Inslee
15. Julian Castro (Unranked)
He was my biggest oversight in the first post. He has a decent resume and is the only Latino candidate in the field, which might give him a certain base in the primary electorate. But I think most Democrats know that they don't want to be running around Florida with "CASTRO 2020" signs next fall.
16. Eric Holder

Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
17.  Andrew Cuomo (18)
18. Terry McAuliffe (17)
A bad fortnight for the Virginia Democratic party.
19.  Corey Booker (20)
Done well so far but I still think he's a bit of a phoney.
20. Pete Buttigieg (19)
His is a vanity campaign.

Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
21.  Bernie Sanders (21)
22.  Tom Steyer
He has said that he will not run, but I can see him changing his mind because she seems to think this whole enterprise is a lark.
23. The Field of Dumb Celebrities
We have an official entrant in this category! Marianne Wiliamson. She's an author and self-help guru, which is convinient, because she's goin to need plenty of self-help to get over this humiliating process.

One WHAT THE FUCK?
24. Tulsi Gabbard.  (Unranked)
I think this candidacy is absolutely nuts. She genuinely feels like an agent of chaos. And I still have not seen so much as a single Tweet supporting her run. I'm suspicious even of her good intentions. But I won't elaborate on that for now, because I'm hoping she just goes away.

II.  The 2020 Hourse Race.

This is where I handicap the race. If a candidate's place has moved, I put their previous ranking in parenthesis.  The two percentages next to each candidate stand for their chances of being the nominee and of beating Trump if they are the nominee.

There's very little movement here because nothing has happened to shift the fundamentals of the race-the Democrats are favored to win but the field for their nomination is wide open.

The Top Tier Candidates.

1. Bernie Sanders  16%/60%

2. Joe Biden   14%/70%

3. Kamala Harris 14%/65%

4. Elizabeth Warren 11%/60%

5. Corey Booker 6%/50%

Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps

6. Amy Klobuchar 9%/70% To win, you have to run. That's why she leap frogged Beto.

7. Beto O'Rourke  9%/70%

8. Sherrod Brown  9%/70%.

Third Tier: Plausible But Flawd.

9. Michael Bloomberg 3%/58%

10. Kristin Gillibrand 3%/57%

11. Eric Holder 1%/60%

12. Andrew Cuomo 1%/60%

13. Terry McCauliffe 1%/60%

14. Chris Murphy 1%/65%.

Fourth Tier: Long Shots.

If Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, John Delaney  or Eric Swaell somehow get through this crowded field, then they possess political skills of formidable depth and would be the favorite to win against Trump.  

If Buttigieg, Gabbard or Some Dumb Celebrity is the nominee, Trump will probably win.

My Mariano Rivera Story

During the first weekend of June, 2003, my Yankees came to the North Side of Chicago for the first time since the 1938 World Series. It was a tough ticket to get.  But the Friday game was delayed over an hour by rain, so I got on the Red Line and hoped for the best. I went to the Day of Game window and got lucky. Apparently some folks decided to skip the game on account of rain. I wound up with a seat in Aisle 36, ten rows behind the Yankees bullpen.

The first sight of a Yankees squad in Road Greys at Wrigley since the last year of Lou Gehrig's career began with Derek Jeter popping out of the visitor's dugout.  There was no batting practicethat day,  but the skys parted and all was clear before the first pitch. It was a lovely day for baseball after all.

The Yankees got out to a 5-0 lead early. David damn Wells hit a double! (Full disclosure-I was in line for a beer and watched that play on the TV above the right field line concession stand.)

Mariano Rivera was known to take naps during the early innings of a game. He liked to take the mound when he was at his peak-about an hour after the clubhouse boys woke him. In about the sixth inning he came out to join his bulpen mates. It didn't look like he would be needed that day, but stranger things have happened.

A little boy of about seven was sitting in the row in front of me with his dad. His dad pointed out Rivera to him and told him about what a special player he was. In between innings, the boy ran down to the famous brick wall with a small disposable camera. Mariano noticed him and smiled as the child line up his photograph.  The kid ran back to his dad and was full of excitement. "That's great," the dad said. "Maybe next innning you can get his autograph.

After the next half inning, the boy ran back down with a ball and pen in hand. Mariano saw him again, but politely explained that he wasn't allowed to sign autographs during the game.  "Come down after the last out of the game. I'll sign it then."

The score at the time was five to two. David Wells was in command of all his stuff.  But then in the bottom of the eight inning, Corey Patterson hit a solo home run to tighten up the game. Antonio Asuna came in to get the last out of the inning, and Mariano began to warm up in earnest. He might just be needed after all.

The Yankees did not score in the top of the 9th, so Joe Torre brought in his big gun for the bottom half of the inning.  Mariano was not perfect that day. He gave up two singles, but didn't allow a run. He Sop Choi struck out for the final out of the game. Final Score, Yankees 5, Cubs 3.

The Yankees dugout emptied and all the players casually slapped high fives in single-file. As the brief celebration ended, the players headed into to the clubhouse by way of the dugout.  The boy was holding out hope for an autograph. The father of this kid was trying to let his son down easy. "Look, Mr. Rivera didn't know that he would be pitching when he promised to sign your ball." The kid looked devastated. I never wanted an autograph, even as a child trying to get Don Mattingly's attention, as I wanted this kid to get Mariano Rivera's signature. But it seemed not to be.

We all watched the Yankees file towards their dugout. Except one. Mariano Rivera, instead of heading for the dugout steps, turned toward right field and slowly walked out toward the bullpen. For a second I worried that he was just going to get his jacket or sunflower sseeds. But no, he was headed straight for the little kid in Aisle 36, Row 9.

When he got out by us, he pointed right at the kid and told him to come down to the railing. Mariano took the ball, signed his name on it and flipped it back to him.  The boy ran back to his father, filled with joy.

A few grown ups started yelling for Mo to sign their stuff. He ignored them and trotted back to the dugout. More than one of the grown ups called him a name or two.  They didn't know the whole story.

I've been a Yankees fan for over 40 yers. I can recite the name and statistics of my favorite players. I have their succession memorized: first Reggie Jackson, then Graig Nettles, followed by Don Mattingly, followed by Bernie Williams, followed by Mariano Rivera and then, for one year only, Derek Jeter. After that it's a little hazy. Favorite players are less important to adults. I am only a few years younger than Mariano Rivera. But when I heard the news today that he is the first unanimously chosen member of the baseball Hall of Fame, I got choked up.

The indelible image of Mariano Rivera is him trotting through the Bronx night while "Enter Sandman" plays over The Staidum's sound system, so he could put out a proverbial fire from the mound. But my strongest memory of  him will always be him calmly walking down the right field line of the Friendly Confines with "Go Cubs Go" playing, so he could keep a promise to a kid in the stands.

The last 42 is the first 100. Congratulations, Mo.

Harpo Speaks! by Harpo Marx
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

This is a remarkable book. It is the memoir of a second grade drop out, who eventually rubbed shoulders with the great literary figures of his day. It is also the memoir of one of the most famous movie stars of the first few decades of talkies. But he barely mentions his movies.

I am a life-long fan of the Marx Brothers. I can't really say why I didn't get around to reading this one sooner but I'm glad that I did. Unlike a lot of celebrity memoirs, Harpo does not skip the details of his youth. He writes at length about an impoversished existence on the Upper East Side of Manhattan at the close of the 19th century. He was the middle child of five boys, but spent his days in an odd solitude roaming the streets in hopes of finding adventur and maybe hustling somethin of value.

The best part of the book is when he writes about the Marx Brothers years as traveling vaudevillians. He writes about how their act came together, in fits and starts, and the various flop houses that they brothers stayed in between 1910 and their first Broadway show in 1924.

Then he becomes famous. But not, strictly speaking, a celebrity. No one recognized him out of costume and no one knew what he sounded like. But he fell in with the Algonquin Round Table and was more than content to be their listening partner. He writes with real affection for that crowd, and with reverence even for litary figures who have been mostly forgotten 90 years later.

The transition to movies and the move to Hollywood are given cursory coverage. He does not dissect Duck Soup or tell the tale of how Irving Thalberg got them over to MGM to make A Night at the Opera and a day at the Races before dying young and leaving them without a champion in the studio. He spends more time talking about his USO tours and night club engagements with his brother Chico.

He writes about the brothers in more or less inverse proportion to their celebrity. Gummo was his agent and very dear friend. He writes about Zeppo's business acumen with big brotherly pride. Chico is mostly seen as a scamp who stole from him as a kid and as an adult. But there's almost no judgment there. Groucho is really only spoken of as a wit. There's almost no sense of their bein friends, although he does mention that some combination of the five brothers ate lunch almost every day in their later years.

Harpo loves to drop names. And some of the anecdotes are a little too good to be true. But they are funny and warm. The last few chapers deal with his happy marriage and the joy he and his wife took in raising four children, all of them adopted. The passage about how they raised their children to view the act of adoption as an adventure is truly poignant.

Harpo might have written a more serious memoir where he exposed the grit of his relationships with Groucho and Chico or where he divulged the process that caused him to make Love Happy, the last Marx Brothers movie most famous for being the first Marilyn Monrore movie. Harpo not only leaves that story out, he actually seems to forget he made it! (He refers to A Night in Casablanca as the last Marx Brothers movie.)

But these are the quips of a die-hard Marxist of the Groucho variety. Anyone who loves comedy or show business or Dorothy Parker and her crowd, will get a lot out of reading this one.



View all my reviews

Uncovering the Dome by Amy Klobuchar
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

I read this book because I wanted to get a sense of what Amy Klobuchar's writing and thinking were like before she entered the national political stage. This book is a beefed-up version of her senior undegraduate thesis at Yale. It tells the rather dry story of how the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrdome was built by the people and government of Minnesota.

The story unfolds in a pretty straight-forward manner. The governor recognizes that the Twins and Vikings might leave for sunnier climes if they do not get a new stadium (or two) but no one wants to commit tens of millionis of public dollars to subsidize two particular private corporations. Eventually the state legislature appoints a seven person commission to study the issue and to decide where such a stadium should be built. The result was the HHH Metrodome, a functional but unloved stadium that served as home to the Twins and Vikings for 30 years.

As prose, the writing suffers a bit from the hallmarks of undergraduate research. There is a lot of exposition and the drama is light, although the future Senator does an admirable job of describing the motivations of the various pols with sympathy. The books feels like it was written by someone who already knew it was a good idea not to step on anyone's toes.

She dodges ansering the biggest question teased by the book, whether it serves the public interest to build such stadiums with tax payer money. Her pragmatic conclusion seems to imply that probably isn't, but at least these particular public servants did it in a way that was on time and under budge and that prevented the Vikings from having to change their name to something more tropical for a spot in the sunbelt.

The Metrodome was an exotic part of baseball to me as a kid. In the conclusion of the book she quotes Yankees manager Billy Martin as saying the dome should be banned from baseball. As I recall he lamented that the people of Minnesota had plastered the name of a great man on a dump such as this unattractive stadium on the edge of downtown Minneapolis.

Battlin' Billy was a lot less kind than Senator Amy Klobuchar. The book is forgetable. But I left with the impression that I hope some day a stadium in the Twin Cities is named for her too.


View all my reviews

My First Good Reads Review-Football for a Buck By Jeff Pearlman

Football for a Buck: The Crazy Rise and Crazier Demise of the USFL by Jeff Pearlman
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

This book is a wonderful mix of bathos and nostalgia. I did not watch a lot of USFL games, but the names and logos and uniforms excited my young mind. It was fun to witness the birth of a new league. I was a parochial New Yorker who couldn't bring himself to root for a team from New Jersey, so I looked over the team names and decided that I was a Chicago Blitz fan. One year later, my favorte team got traded, yes traded for a completely diffferent team, the Arizona Wranglers. If that last sentence strikes you as ood or suprising, you will love this book.

I've been reading Jeff Pearlman since he was the sports editor of my college newspaper, the Delaware Review. He excels at both ends of the reporting process. He gathers facts doggedly and verifies details even whent the story is "too good to fact check." He also writes compelling narratives with prose that is neither too cute nor too dry. It's a combination of artistic talent and professional restraint that I envy.

There are some myths busted in this book, but there are plenty that survive the rigors of Mr. Pearlman's reportage. There were some damn good football players in that league and some truly absurd characters throughout the league's front offices, upper management and outer orbits. Jim Kelly, Steve Young and Reggie White were three of the best football players in the world, and their contributions are well documented her. But of course their excellence gets overshadowed by the one USFL character too weird to invent in a novel, the owner of the aforementioned New Jersey Generals and later the 45th president of the United States.

Donald Trump's role is covered thoroughly. The parallels to his political style and the absence of any moral compass are important parts of how the league came undone. But Pearlman resists the temptation to make this a book about Trump. The players of this league and their fleeting run as professional players provide the real human drama here. The league was beautiful and fun. It had potential to become an enduring part of the American sports world. But mistakes were made. This is a great read of how those mistakes were made and what the league still means for the men who made them.


View all my reviews

The 2020 Democratic Nomination

The next presidential election is 96 weeks and two days. Democrats are currently favored to beat the incumbent president, who is very unpopular outside of his Republican base. Betting markets give the Democrats about a sixty percent chance of winning. There's just one tricky part left-they have to pick a candidate.

The Democratic field is going to be enormous. As many as 20 candidates will likely announce that their intention to run for the nomination. That process will probably start in a few weeks. I wanted to write a post about my feelings about the relative strengths and vulnerabilities of every plausible candidate.  I will make some predictions. all with the understanding that 1,000 unexpected things will happen between now and the Iowa caucus.

Before dissecting the individual candidates, I will state my own biases.

THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.

This first section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the above-listed candidates. I will update this every so often as candidates either anounce their run or delcine to run. I have  broken them into informal tiers, although the lines are a little fluid between them.

Six That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar.
2. Beto O'Rourke
3. Kamala Harris
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Chris Murphy
6. Kristin Gillibrand

Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
7. Steve Bullock
8. Joe Biden
9. Mitch Landrieu
10. Sherrod Brown
11. Michael Blomberg
12. Tim Ryan
13. John Hickenlooper
14. Jay Inslee
15. Eric Garcetti
16. Eric Holder

Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
17.  Terry McAuliffe
18.  Andrew Cuomo
19.  Pete Buttigieg
20.  Corey Booker

Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
21.  Howard Schultz
22.  Bernie Sanders
23.  Tom Steyer
24. The Field of Dumb Celebrities

THE 2020 HORSE RACE

Prolouge: The Very Corrupt Elephant in the Room.

Donald Trump and almost every organization that he has ever been the head of are currently subject to a variety of criminal and civil investigations. I expect that at some point in 2019, Robert Mueller will conclude his investigation into Russian interference with the election. It's possible that Donald Trump will be impeached, but I would not bet on that outcome. It's also possible that Mueller's findings will be do damning that the Republican party decides they have to jettison him. They might succesfully talk him into not running for a second term if things are very bad but the man is nothing if not stubborn. I expect Donald Trump to be the 2020 Republican nominee because he is etremely shameless and very popular among Republican voters.

Prologue 2: The Very Conflicted Donkey in the Room.

I do not think Hillary will run again but you can't completely ignor her as a possible nominee, especially if none of the candidates below racks up a clear win in the primaries. It's easy to say that no one wants Hillary vs. Trump II, but Hillary and her family would love the opportunity. She just can't get it by running from the start. She needs a chaotic early primary season. I will reserve a 1% chance of her being the nominee.

The Top Tier Candidates.
Putting candidates into tiers is always a bit arbitrary but with a field of two dozen names, it helps to organize them in some way. My definition of a Top Tier candidate is someone with a plausible resume, significant national name recognition, and the ability to raise enough money to compete for the nomination.  I think five people fit this standard. I will list them in the order of likelihood to be the nominee.

1. Bernie Sanders.
Chance of Being the Nominee: 18% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.

He's never going to win over the instituational party while continuing to refuse to become a member of that party. But he is the only candidate in the field who ran last time and the only candidate in the field who ever came reasonably close to becoming the nominee. He has lot of infrastructure and good-will, especially on the left-wing of the party. His biggest weaknesses are age (79 on election day 2020), his unwillingness to join the very organization that he seeks to lead and his poor showing with black voters in 2020.  The grime that accumulates on anyone from being in the national game for a long time will hurt him this time around. A lot of party activists do not like him. Also worth noting that he doesn't know a god damn thing about foreign policy despite having already made a serious run at this office. That should be disqualifying, but his advantages are too significant to ignore. If he finds away to get some votes from black voters, he could win this nomination.

2. Joe Biden
Chance of Being the Nominee: 14% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 70%.

Joe Biden was born to be Vice-President of the United States. He knew how to work Capitol Hill and he knew how to keep the base energized. His experience was invaluable to Barack Obama and the party loves him for it. But he's almost as old as Bernie. (Seventy-seven on election day, 78 on Inauguration Day, if elected.) He also has a long record of votes that will not endear him to the activist base. He used to be called the Senator from MBNA, and was the prinicpal force behind some truly terrible changes to the bankruptcy code in 2005. That may seem like a small thing, but it is a fact that Elizabeth Warren will make sure everyone knows.

3. Kamala Harris
Chance of Being the Nominee: 13% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 65%.

She is the most viable black candidate. She's only been in the senate for two years, but prior to that she held a job bigger than most governships-Attorney General of California. The primary knock against her is that she was a prosecutor for a long time and that means she's got a less than stellar record on civil liberties and drug policy. But she ran a very strong campaign in 2016, beating another Democrat in all but four of California's 58 counties. As a senator,  she has done pretty well in the spotlight of national TV appearances and the Kavanaugh hearings. Her legislative record is very light, but that might not be a negative for her.  She has great appeal to a lot of Democrats, who would love nothing more than for Trump to be beaten by a woman of color. She has to come up with a message that resonates, but there's little reason to think she won't do that. And she has great access to fundraising from Californians.

4. Elizabeth Warren
Chance of Being the Nominee: 10% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.

This is a tough one for me. I like and admire Senator Warren very much. I think she would be a good president and she's right exactly where I want a president to be on the idealogical spectrum. She understands how our economy works better than any presidential candidate in recent memory. Most importantly, she can translate that knowledge into explanations of how the macro economy affects average pocketbooks.

But her political instincts are not great. Her first election in 2012 was closer than it should have been in a deep blue state with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. (Her recent re-election was a much stronger result, winning by 24.)  And there's the dumbest issue of all, her Native American ancestry and the accusation that she has benefitted professionally by over stating them. I think the evidence for this is rather light. All of her employers deny that her negligible native ancestry played any part in their decision to hire her. But it's the perfect issue for Trump to run on. It's stupid and he does not care about the facts at hand. Worse yet, Senator Warren has taken the bait from him at every step of the way. A couple months ago she promoted the fact that DNA testing proved she does in fact have at least one Native American ancestory. That person died before she was ever born and tribal leaders were quick to dispel the idea that it has any bearing on her status. Donald Trump of course took the news to double down on his ridiculous racist slurs against her.

But the worst part of this stupid story is that it's precisely the kind of thing that people hate politicians to do. It feels phoney, even if here actions were sincere and ultimately backed up by actual science. Her biggest weakness is that no one will want the 2020 election to be about something this stupd. I can almost hear the chance of "But her 23andMe" now.  That's dumb and it shouldn't rule her out as a candidate, but we have to face the fact that it will rub those WI/MI/PA voters the wrong way.

5. Corey Booker
Chance of Being the Nominee: 6% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 45%.

I will be brief. He is too corporate for the base and too phoney for the general.  There are many people who love him deeply, but he is Wall Street's favorite senator for a good reason. It will be very easy for Trump to portray him as an effete liberal who oh by the way doesn't have a wife. That does not play well.  I keep him in the top tier because he will raise gobs of money, command a lot of TV cameras and he has a natural advantage with black primary voters.  He should survive the early rounds but I don't think he will win over the left wing of the party.

The Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps.

Americans tend to react to a president by choosing someone who is fundamentally different than his predecessor. In the Simpsons television universe, President Donald Trump is followed by President Lisa Simpson. I think Lisa is an apt analogy for what the Democrats need. We have a doozy of an asshole in the White House now. His rank stupidity oozes from every pore of his fatuous head, rivaled only by his intense lack of security. He is bereft of manners and decency. He is constantly desparate for affirmaton of his greatness. These traits had some quirky appeal when he was an upstart candidate.  As President, they grate, even on people who should be his fans.  The Democrats should remember that when choosing a nominee.

6. Beto O'Rourke.
Chance of Being the Nominee: 10% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 70%.

The Greek-American actor Andreas Voutsinas once told Mel Brooks, "Or you got it or you ain't." He was talking about talent. It's important. Beto has it. People like him because he's handsome and he's extremely comfortable in his own skin-the way you can only be comfotable if you know that you're people like you. That confidence creates the greatest gift of all for a politician, it eliminates the need to constatnly sound like you're full of shit.

Beto can take unpopular stances and make them sound principled in a way that even people who disagree with him respect him for it. That is why he made a race of it against Ted Cruz in Texas. He lost by two and a half points to an incumbent senator with a national fundraising machine while the Democratic candidate for governor got crushed by 13.

He will raise a lot of money. He will inspire people to knock on doors for him. He will suprise everyone with his grasp of policy at the early debates.  He is the real deal.

Of course he has weaknesses. His resume is thin and he's never held a statewide office. He also has a voting record that is more centrist than the mood of the party. But if he racks up some early wins, it's going to become obvious that he can beat Donald Trump like a drum. That can get him the nomination.

7. Amy Klobuchar
Chance of Being the Nominee: 9% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 75%.

In a just world, Donald Trump gets his ask kicked on November 3, 2020 by a woman. Amy Klobuchar is better situated to deliver that ass kicking than anyone else on this list. She is respected and liked by her colleagues she has a long record of public service with no glaring problems for either the nomination or the general election. She also does well among rural voters in a midwestern state.

Just as Beto's youth and vigor are a natual conter-balance to Trump's decript anger, Senator Klobuchar is another kind of opposite to the incumbent. She is urbane, polite and level-headed. She speaks warmly and graciously. She is a mother and an accomplished lawyer. I imagine that her idea of a fun weekend while President would be to go to Camp David with her husband to play scrabble and maybe drink some wine while reading a book. Isn't it nice to think of a president doing that on her days off?

She too will have some challenges. She was a prosecutor and that might hurt her in the primaries. (Although it would surely help her in the general, when Trump will be running as the candidate of Law & Order, now matter how many of his close advisors from 2016 are in prison.)  She also doesn't have an obvious connection to black or Latin voters.  But she is smart and she is popular and a serious politician. I think her best campaign slogan would be "Amy Klobuchar, When I'm President You Will Go Entire Weeks Without Even Thinking About Me."

8. Sherrod Brown
Chance of Being the Nominee: 8% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 70%.

Sherrod Brown's appeal is simple-he is the labor candidate. He can win over the Obama/Trump voters by saying with a straight face that he is on the side of American workers, now and always.  He is too protectionist for my liking, but that will be an asset when courting the endorsements of labor unions and it will deny Donald Trump one of hig primary talking points.

On the other hand, Protectionism is stupid and is already starting to hurt American farmers and workers. By 2020, this could be a real liability.

The real issue for and against Brown is his home state of Ohio. He is the only Democrat that would be favored to carry that state, which Trump won by nine points in 2016. Brown was just re-elected there by seven points, even as a Democrat was losing the open governor's mansion race by four. That's a sign of political strength. It also spells our an unfortuante dowside. If Brown is elected president, that new Republican governor of Ohio will get to pick his replacement. So a vote for Brown is also a vote for one fewer Dem in the senate.

The Third Tiers-Plausible But Flawed.

9. Michael Bloomberg
Chance of Being the Nominee: 3% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.

Michael Bloomberg is another version of the Anti-Trump model. He is an actual billionaire with 100% verifiable success in businesss. He is the real deal. He is also a genunie philanthropist and someone who put in the time holding a difficult and important elected position before running for president.  He was, on balance, a good mayor. He believes in science and his focus on climate change is laudable.

His record makes it tough for him to get through the primary. He was, after all, elected mayor as a Republican. He stood by Bush-Cheney through the 2004 re-election. And he is the face of stop and frisk. I think that kills his chances, or should. The only reason I think he has any chance of winning is that he has unlimited money and will spend it, either to win or to advance the ideas and causes that matter most to him.

His general election prospects are very difficult to handicap. He is old, Jewish and presently unmarried. He's also very much associated with the cause of gun control. That will hurt him in some states that the Democrats need to win.

10. Kristin Gillibrand
Chance of Being the Nominee: 3% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.

She is smart and dilligent and wants the job. She is qualified and likeable. She's also done some good work on issues like sexual harassment that will give her a base to build from. But I don't see her as a breakout star.

11. Eric Holder
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.

He's never run for political office. That will hurt him more than you think. I also don't think he's particularly inspiring.

12. Andrew Cuomo
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.

The base hats him but everytime we write him off, he crushes the challenger before him. Maybe he has a strategy to get through this field, but I don't see it happening.

13. Terry McCauliffe
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.

He knows how to raise money, so I don't want to write him off. He also did a pretty good job during his four years as governor of Virginia. But he is dripping in Clintonism and I don't think that will play well during either phase of the 2020 election.  He just feels corrupt in ways that are likely to give Trump and Fox News plenty of fodder.

14. Chris Murphy
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.

Perfectly plausible. Has a good knack for social media and might run to grow his stature but I don't think anyone is clamoring for him.

The 4th Tier-Long Shots.
These are all candidates who will at least explore the idea of running. Some of them might believe they can be the nominee but that will take a significant miracle. Mosts of them are probably doing a Mike Huckabee-running to get some exposure that they can parlay into better media gigs or maybe a cabinet position.

All of these candidates have less than a 1% chance of being the nominee, so I'll only list their chance of beating Trump in the general.

15. Eric Garcetti.
He would be a reasonably strong candidate (probably about 60 percent to win) but I don't see him wearing down all the people above him.

16. Mitch Landrieu
Another reasonable general election candidate. He has an interesting narrative and obvious talent but he probably won't clear the field.  I'll say 65 percent chance of winning, if nominated.

16. Steve Bullock
He would be a strong candidate in the general but it would take a pretty significant collapse of the major candidates for him to even get a foot in the door of the early states. 

17. John Hickenloper.
John Hickenloper was the governor of Colorado. He has a certain cache with the marijuana reform movement. But I don't think we have to worry about The Hickenloper Era becoming a thing. He's probably another 65 percent chance to win.

18. Jay Inslee
Inslee is a former governor of Washington and a boring, competent generic Dem. I give him the standard 60 percent chance of beating Trump.

19. Tim Ryan
Ryan is a representative from Northeast Ohio (Youngstown/Akron). Being from Ohio elevates him to 65 percent chance of winning, although unlike Brown he doesn't hold office state wide so it's hard to say for sure that he would run well in the southern part of the state, where Trump and Trumpism are quite popular.

20. Rep. John Delaney
I guess he wants to be on MSNBC more. Seems a bit lacking in gravitas so I'll downgrade him to 55 percent in the general.

Fifth Tier Novelty Candidates. None of these people can win or even be nominated. But they have money to burn and/or ambition to spare.

21. Howard Schultz  He's willing to spend his Starbucks money on an ego boost. He will be exposed as a lightweight very early on.

22. Tom Steyer He'll probably make some noise by being a hard-liner on impeachment and making dumb emotional appeals. Fuck this guy.

23. Pete Buttigieg Mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana. Like everyone who spends time in South Bend, he has an inflated sense of his own self-worth.

24. Some Dumb Celebrity.  There has to be a whole other list of 25 B and C list celebrities who are being told that they could run for president on a platfrom of being more successful entertainers than the incumbent. I hope none of them take the bait, but I have a sinking suspsicion that at least one of them will. After all, how hard can it be?