I write to record my recent realization that it is likely that Donald Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives. I believed that the Mueller investigation resulted in enough evidence to warrant an impeachment inquiry, but the House leadership was reluctant to open one. They were probably content to just fight him in an election next november. But then Trump did himself in.
Just one day after Robert Mueller testified before congress, Donald Trump called the president of Ukraine and pressured him to open an investigation of Joe Biden's son. And when a whistle-blower came forward, Donald Trump acted like it was perfectly normal for a president to use his office to get dirt on a political opponent.
The dam broke tonight, as evidence by two extraordinary pieces in the Washington Post.
1. At 9:00 PM Eastern, the posted an Op-Ed by seven freshman Democratic Represenatives. (Reps. Gil Cisneros of California, Jason Crow of Colorado, Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, Elaine Luria of Virginia, Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.) All seven are veterans of the armed forces or America's intelligence services. None of them have been controversial during their eigh months in office. They wrote to say that if the allegationw are true, that Donald Trump must be removed from office.
You can read that here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/24/seven-freshman-democrats-these-allegations-are-threat-all-we-have-sworn-protect/?outputType=amp
2. At 10: 40 Eastern, three Washington Post reporters broke new details on the Ukranian scandal. They report that President Trump ordered $400 of military aid to Ukraine to be withheld just days before his conversation with Ukraine's president.
You can read that here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-ordered-hold-on-military-aid-days-before-calling-ukrainian-president-officials-say/2019/09/23/df93a6ca-de38-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html?fbclid=IwAR148xEQ_O-SRw9Tjuz101x5XXEEzOzCVwaqPodbMjANnroAeQIY-JPKjvM
This is naked corruption. If the allegations are proven, he must be removed from office. The House probably still did not want to go down this road, but he has given them no choice.
It's now just after midnight on the east coast. I think the next few days will be massive news days. We will probably learn more about the whistle blower complaint. I expect the house to move to officially open an inquiry and for events to unfold quickly.
Three hours ago I would have said that Trump was going to avoid an impeachment process. I no longer believe that. I think hearings will be held, articles drafted and if I had to be right now, I would say that a majority of the house will vote to impeach him.
After that, things move to the senate. There is almost no indication that any Republicans are ready to vote to convict him, although Mitt Romney has made enough half-hearted statements of concern to draw the president's ire.
Donald Trump got away with solicitiing foreign interference in his first presidential election. Just one day after Robert Mueller testified to the contents of his report, Donald Trump began asking for that interference from a different country. But this time he was president. And this time he got caught. It now appears that there will be a meaningful attempt to get justice for this High Crime and Misdemeanor.
Monday, September 23, 2019
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Third Democratic Debate Grades
The nine most serious candidates for the Democratic nomination were finally on the stage tonight. So was Andrew Yang. Here are my thoughts on how they all did. I give each candidate separate tactical and strategic grades. I think it's construct to evaluate how well they performed tonight in the immediate sense but more importantly whether or not that performance will actually improve their chance to be the nominee.
1. Elizabeth Warren Tactical: A+ Strategic: A.
Warren is probably the smartest person in this field. And tonight she was definitely the best prepared. She knew that she would get plenty of screen time, so she didn't fight for more. She seemed to know that most of the flak would be directed at Joe Biden. She also knows that most Democratic primary voters do not like when a candidate goes hard at another Democrat. So Warren answered her questions and she answered them well. But she didn't go for cheap applause lines and she didn't offend anyone. This is exactly how a front-runner should perform.
2. Pete Buttigieg Tactical: A, Strategic: A
He is both young and intelligent. He obviously has the temperament for this job and a pretty good feeling for where both the Democratic base and the general election persuadable voters are, politically. He is still a long shot to be the nominee because his resume is too short and I don't think the left wing will embrace him. But he did great tonight.
3. Cory Booker: Tactical A, Strategic: A-
I do not like Senator Booker. I think he is a phony. But he was great tonight. He was charming and witty without seeming too rehearsed. I do no think he will shoot up in the polls, but he helped himself as much as possible tonight.
4. Joe Biden Tactical: A-, Strategic: A-
Biden was better prepared tonight and he excelled in the first half of the debate. His team obviously told him to avoid using names and to not get bogged down in details. But his presence was pretty good and he conveyed his message well. Of course in the last 45 minutes or so he had a few of his usual slips. (He even talked about 'record players' during a question about education reform.) But I don't think he said anything that will gain traction in the media so he probably still stays at the front of this field for now.
5. Amy Klobuchar Tactical: A-, Strategic: B+
Her substance was very good. Like Buttigieg, she has views that are sensible and popular generally. But she's not charismatic on television and I would be surprised if she gets much of a bump out of tonight's performance. That's too bad because she would make an excellent president and is the perfect antidote to Trumpism.
6. Kamala Harris Tactical B+, Strategic: B+
She was comfortable and relaxed. I am inclined to like her, so that played well with me. Her plan was obviously to make the night about bashing Trump and she got a couple good lines off, but I don't think that made her stand out particularly. She does deserve credit for improving on the subject of criminal justice reform.
7. Beto O'Rourke Tactical: B+, Strategic: B
Beto is handsome and he can articulate a talking point well. Perhaps the most telling moments tonight was that he was complimented so frequently by other candidates on the stage. They know he is popular in Texas. They also know he's not much of a threat to become the nominee. But he did not cost himself any votes tonight.
8. Bernie Sanders Tactical: C+, Strategic: C
I have a friend who saw Flock of Seagulls in Concert about 20 years ago. They played "I Run"...twice. Because what the hell else do you want to hear Flock of Seagulls play? Bernie too only has one hit and he plays it as often as the crowd will let him. But his team failed him by not giving him cough drops before the debate. He is mailing it in now.
9. Julian Castro Tactical: C, Strategic: D
He sucked. And he took a shot at Biden's age. That probably cost him an ambassadorship.
10. Andrew Yang Tactical: D, Strategic: Not Applicable.
This clown is not running to be president. He is running to be a celebrity. And he actually started the night by offering a bribe to voters. That gimmick will probably get him some email addresses and exactly 10 votes. But he really showed his hand tonight. He is not running to be president. He is not running to win a cabinet spot or to be the ambassador to Aruba. He is running to be some combination of Joe Rogan and Tony Robbins. Fuck him.
Sunday, September 1, 2019
The Field Begins To Whittle (The 2020 Democratic Field, Take Seven)
Labor Day is traditionally when voters supposedly start paying attention to a presidential election. So we are only one year away from normal people starting to really thinkg about this process. In the meantime, we political nerds soldier on.
I last updated the field four weeks ago. Since then we have had a few drop outs. Three dropped out before officially missing the cut and Senator Gillibrand dropped out as soon as she officially missed the cut. (Good for her. Being a senator from New York is a pretty sweet gig. There's not need to waste the next 4 months in Iowa and New Hampshire.)
I. The Power Rankings, Take Seven.
These are just my preferences, without regard to the chances they will win the nomination. There is not a lot of movement this time, except for the spaces created by former candidates, most notably Jay Inslee who had shot up from 13th to 4th in my last ranking. The removal of the three other former candidates, Hickenlooper (13), Gillibrand (14) and Moulton (16) caused less disruption.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Kamala Harris
3. Elizabeth Warren
4 Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6) He seems more relevant after his response to the El Paso shooting and just yesterday there was another horrific shooting in West Texas. I'm not counting him out yet.
I last updated the field four weeks ago. Since then we have had a few drop outs. Three dropped out before officially missing the cut and Senator Gillibrand dropped out as soon as she officially missed the cut. (Good for her. Being a senator from New York is a pretty sweet gig. There's not need to waste the next 4 months in Iowa and New Hampshire.)
I. The Power Rankings, Take Seven.
These are just my preferences, without regard to the chances they will win the nomination. There is not a lot of movement this time, except for the spaces created by former candidates, most notably Jay Inslee who had shot up from 13th to 4th in my last ranking. The removal of the three other former candidates, Hickenlooper (13), Gillibrand (14) and Moulton (16) caused less disruption.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Kamala Harris
3. Elizabeth Warren
4 Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6) He seems more relevant after his response to the El Paso shooting and just yesterday there was another horrific shooting in West Texas. I'm not counting him out yet.
5. Julian Castro (Down from 4) He seems to be getting slithgly desperate. This week he put forth a proposal to make it illegal for animal shelters to euthanize unadopted pets. There may ben argument for tha ton the merits, but it is NOT an issue for the federal government to decide. It struck me as an attempt to hit a very specific fundraising niche. (Cat ladys.)
6. Michael Bennett (Up from 7)
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Pete Buttigieg (9)
9. Joe Biden (10)
10. John Delaney (11)
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Pete Buttigieg (9)
9. Joe Biden (10)
10. John Delaney (11)
11. Corey Booker (12)
12. Tim Ryan
13. Joe Sestak (Up from 17)
14. Bernie Sanders (18)
15. Wayne Messam (20)
12. Tim Ryan
13. Joe Sestak (Up from 17)
14. Bernie Sanders (18)
15. Wayne Messam (20)
16. Andrew Yang (19) I have to explain something here. Yang moved "up" 3 spots because 4 candidates dropped out. But I'm moving him behind Wayne Messam for a very specific reason. I know nothing about Wayne Messam. He is the mayor of a some mid-size Florida city that I can't even remember the name of. He's youngish and African-American. I don't know if he's a good mayor or a bad mayor. I don't know his religion or his priorities or his favorite band. I think it's slightly absurd that he's running for President of the United States but I also have to assume that he is more qualified and competent for the job than a name chosen at random from the phone book.
To be ranked below Messam, I have to think you would be worse than a random name chosen from a phone book. Last month I gave Yang the benefit of the doubt that he was. I have now sseen enough of him to conclude that he is not. His ideas are stupid and I believe he is running to become a fringe public intellectual akin to Ron Paul. He is going to wind up building a small political movement that disrupts things for no substantive purpose. Just like Ron Paul.
17. Tom Steyer (Unranked) I think I forgot about him last time. I'm glad he didn't qualify for the debate because he's a rich asshole who should have better ways to waste his money than to juice the ad revenues of Iowa TV chanels and radio stations. Build a hospital for Christ's sake.
18. Bill de Blasio (21)
To be ranked below Messam, I have to think you would be worse than a random name chosen from a phone book. Last month I gave Yang the benefit of the doubt that he was. I have now sseen enough of him to conclude that he is not. His ideas are stupid and I believe he is running to become a fringe public intellectual akin to Ron Paul. He is going to wind up building a small political movement that disrupts things for no substantive purpose. Just like Ron Paul.
17. Tom Steyer (Unranked) I think I forgot about him last time. I'm glad he didn't qualify for the debate because he's a rich asshole who should have better ways to waste his money than to juice the ad revenues of Iowa TV chanels and radio stations. Build a hospital for Christ's sake.
18. Bill de Blasio (21)
19. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
20. Marianne Williamson (23)
II. The Horse Race, Take Seven.
A. The Top Tier (Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
4. Kamala Harris (Down from 3)
Harris' slip in the polls has been pretty consistent over the past month. Her performance in the 2nd debate was poorly received and pretty much erased the bounce that she got from a strong performance in the first. I still think Bernie is unlikely to be the nominee but he should do well in the first 2 states and I think it will be tough for Harris to withstand finishing out of the money in both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Buttigieg or O'Rourke finishes ahead of her in either place. She is still my preference among the top 4 candidates, but she can't be please with the trajectory of her candidacy.
B. Tier Two (Those Guys).
5. Pete Buttigieg
6. Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)
7. Cory Booker (Down form 7)
8. Julian Castro
I slid Mayor Pete down to the second tier because his support has been on a plateau for months. He is an appealing guy and has the right temperament to be President some day. But I don't think people are going to flock to his candidacy in a big way. He's kind of stuck in 5th place, unless Kamala or Bernie tank.
He also fits a little better with the other three candidates in this tier. They are all moderate. They each have some strengths and some obvious weaknesses. Three of them have been mayors. If a Democrat wins, all of them will be considered for important jobs. And there is a least a chance that any one of them might find a cause or have a moment that shoots them up into contention. It hasn't happened yet, but there is hope.
C. Tier Three (The Grown Ups).
9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Michael Bennet (12)
11. Steve Bullock (14)
12. John Delaney (13)
These candidates are more experienced than the "Those Guys" Bunch but a lot less charismatic and therefore less likely to be the nominee. If God gave me a magic wand and said I could pick which tier the next president would come from, I would choose this bunch. But I am more moderate than the typical primary voter and less interested in how dynamic someone seems on television. I wish this group well, and I think 2 or 3 of them might be able to
D. Tier Four (Long Shots)
13. Andrew Yang (21) He's had an undeniable bump in the polls-all the way to 2 or 3 percent.
14. Tulsi Gabbard (19)
15. Tim Ryan I think he's running to raise his profile in order to one day run for Governor or maybe for speaker of the House.
16. Joe Sestak (18)
17. Tom Steyer
18. Bill de Blasio (17) The complete rejection of this guy by the national party has warmed my heart.
E. Fifth Tier (Trainwrecks)
19. Wayne Mesam (22) I hope he sticks around if only because he now serves a specific purpose in my power rankings. I wonder if his wife teases him by calling him "President-Elect" when he forgets to take out the trash.
20. Marianne Williamson (23) Fuck her.
20. Marianne Williamson (23)
II. The Horse Race, Take Seven.
A. The Top Tier (Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
4. Kamala Harris (Down from 3)
Harris' slip in the polls has been pretty consistent over the past month. Her performance in the 2nd debate was poorly received and pretty much erased the bounce that she got from a strong performance in the first. I still think Bernie is unlikely to be the nominee but he should do well in the first 2 states and I think it will be tough for Harris to withstand finishing out of the money in both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Buttigieg or O'Rourke finishes ahead of her in either place. She is still my preference among the top 4 candidates, but she can't be please with the trajectory of her candidacy.
B. Tier Two (Those Guys).
5. Pete Buttigieg
6. Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)
7. Cory Booker (Down form 7)
8. Julian Castro
I slid Mayor Pete down to the second tier because his support has been on a plateau for months. He is an appealing guy and has the right temperament to be President some day. But I don't think people are going to flock to his candidacy in a big way. He's kind of stuck in 5th place, unless Kamala or Bernie tank.
He also fits a little better with the other three candidates in this tier. They are all moderate. They each have some strengths and some obvious weaknesses. Three of them have been mayors. If a Democrat wins, all of them will be considered for important jobs. And there is a least a chance that any one of them might find a cause or have a moment that shoots them up into contention. It hasn't happened yet, but there is hope.
C. Tier Three (The Grown Ups).
9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Michael Bennet (12)
11. Steve Bullock (14)
12. John Delaney (13)
These candidates are more experienced than the "Those Guys" Bunch but a lot less charismatic and therefore less likely to be the nominee. If God gave me a magic wand and said I could pick which tier the next president would come from, I would choose this bunch. But I am more moderate than the typical primary voter and less interested in how dynamic someone seems on television. I wish this group well, and I think 2 or 3 of them might be able to
D. Tier Four (Long Shots)
13. Andrew Yang (21) He's had an undeniable bump in the polls-all the way to 2 or 3 percent.
14. Tulsi Gabbard (19)
15. Tim Ryan I think he's running to raise his profile in order to one day run for Governor or maybe for speaker of the House.
16. Joe Sestak (18)
17. Tom Steyer
18. Bill de Blasio (17) The complete rejection of this guy by the national party has warmed my heart.
E. Fifth Tier (Trainwrecks)
19. Wayne Mesam (22) I hope he sticks around if only because he now serves a specific purpose in my power rankings. I wonder if his wife teases him by calling him "President-Elect" when he forgets to take out the trash.
20. Marianne Williamson (23) Fuck her.
Sunday, August 4, 2019
2020 Democratic Field, Take Six (Post 2nd Debate)
I. Do You Ever Think About Death?
This weekend, the country experienced two horrific mass shootings. That's a lot, even for US.
It's early but the reaction this time feels different. Tonight the governor of Ohio was shouted down at a vigil with chants of "Do Something." Watch the video. Only about half the attendees are actively chanting but what's really interesting is the reaction of those who are not chanting. They are quiet. They are not telling anyone to stop chanting. They seem torn, between wanting to be respectful of the fact they are at a vigil and wanting to well, "Do Something."
The shooting in El Paso was inspired by the racist rhetoric of our President and his obedient bullhorn, the Fox News Channel. The shooter wrote a manifesto that made two broad points-the United State is being invaded by non-white immigrants and that white Americans need to use their right to bear Arms to repel this invasion because the white people of Europe do not share those rights.
This one is on the Republicans, full-square. It will fade as a news story, as all of these horrific episodes do. But it has reinforced the narrative that Donald Trump is a white nationalist. And it has so far emboldened Democrats to connect those dots.
We'll see if these facts affect poll data as the weeks go by. I suspect that it will. Americans are sick of living like this. And I think the silly idea that that this is about mental health or praryer in schools or motherfucking video games is finally being treated as the nonsense that it has always been.
II. The Field Takes Shape, (Sort of)
The past week gave us some slight clarity on the state of the race for the Democratic nomination. After two rounds of debates, the polls are about where they were two months ago-Biden leads, with Warren, Harris and Sanders also in double digits. Pete Buttigieg remains in fifth. Beto O'Rourke is a distant sixth, and everyone else is reguarly pollin between 1 and 2 points in both statewide and national polls.
Only eight candidates have qualified for the third debate in Houston, with Klobuchar and Booker joining the above mentioned candidates. Andrew Yang and Julian Castro each need one more poll at 2 perecnet or above to put them in the debate. I expect they will both get that.
That would bring the field up to ten candidates. That would mean one night of debates, with all the front runners on stage together. If an 11th candidate qualifies, then the field will be split in two again, so we might not get the top four on the same stage. But the smaller panels will give each candidate more time to speak. I'm rooting for 11 to qualify because I think Klobuchar will benefit from being given more time on her night.
Only three candidates have even a single qualifying poll at two percent-Gabbard, Hickenlooper and Steyer. Gabbard has met the donors threshold. None of the others are close. So we might need a Gabbard bounce to split the field in Houston.
III. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Six.
These are my purely personal preferences. Since the last rankings, Eric Swalwell and Mike Gravel have dropped out of the race. So we are down to 23 spots.
Changes from the previous ranking are noted for each candidate. (Not a lot of change this time.)
1. Amy Klobuchar Unchanged
2. Kamala Harris (Up from 3)
3. Elizabeth Warren (Down from 2).
4. Julian Castro (5) Unchanged
This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers.
The Top Tier Candidates
6. Cory Booker (Unchanged)
7. Beto O'Rourke (8)
18. Joe Sestak (Unchanged)
This weekend, the country experienced two horrific mass shootings. That's a lot, even for US.
It's early but the reaction this time feels different. Tonight the governor of Ohio was shouted down at a vigil with chants of "Do Something." Watch the video. Only about half the attendees are actively chanting but what's really interesting is the reaction of those who are not chanting. They are quiet. They are not telling anyone to stop chanting. They seem torn, between wanting to be respectful of the fact they are at a vigil and wanting to well, "Do Something."
The shooting in El Paso was inspired by the racist rhetoric of our President and his obedient bullhorn, the Fox News Channel. The shooter wrote a manifesto that made two broad points-the United State is being invaded by non-white immigrants and that white Americans need to use their right to bear Arms to repel this invasion because the white people of Europe do not share those rights.
This one is on the Republicans, full-square. It will fade as a news story, as all of these horrific episodes do. But it has reinforced the narrative that Donald Trump is a white nationalist. And it has so far emboldened Democrats to connect those dots.
We'll see if these facts affect poll data as the weeks go by. I suspect that it will. Americans are sick of living like this. And I think the silly idea that that this is about mental health or praryer in schools or motherfucking video games is finally being treated as the nonsense that it has always been.
II. The Field Takes Shape, (Sort of)
The past week gave us some slight clarity on the state of the race for the Democratic nomination. After two rounds of debates, the polls are about where they were two months ago-Biden leads, with Warren, Harris and Sanders also in double digits. Pete Buttigieg remains in fifth. Beto O'Rourke is a distant sixth, and everyone else is reguarly pollin between 1 and 2 points in both statewide and national polls.
Only eight candidates have qualified for the third debate in Houston, with Klobuchar and Booker joining the above mentioned candidates. Andrew Yang and Julian Castro each need one more poll at 2 perecnet or above to put them in the debate. I expect they will both get that.
That would bring the field up to ten candidates. That would mean one night of debates, with all the front runners on stage together. If an 11th candidate qualifies, then the field will be split in two again, so we might not get the top four on the same stage. But the smaller panels will give each candidate more time to speak. I'm rooting for 11 to qualify because I think Klobuchar will benefit from being given more time on her night.
Only three candidates have even a single qualifying poll at two percent-Gabbard, Hickenlooper and Steyer. Gabbard has met the donors threshold. None of the others are close. So we might need a Gabbard bounce to split the field in Houston.
III. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Six.
These are my purely personal preferences. Since the last rankings, Eric Swalwell and Mike Gravel have dropped out of the race. So we are down to 23 spots.
Changes from the previous ranking are noted for each candidate. (Not a lot of change this time.)
1. Amy Klobuchar Unchanged
2. Kamala Harris (Up from 3)
3. Elizabeth Warren (Down from 2).
4. Julian Castro (5) Unchanged
5. Jay Inslee (Up from 13) He had a strong performance and let's face it-his priority is the right one. If we don' stop heating up the planet, we are all fucked.
6. Beto O'Rourke (Down from 5) He had another laclucster night in the debate, but he has a rare opportunity to speak about the shooting in his hometown. So far, he is speaking plainly and truthfully.
6. Beto O'Rourke (Down from 5) He had another laclucster night in the debate, but he has a rare opportunity to speak about the shooting in his hometown. So far, he is speaking plainly and truthfully.
7. Michael Bennett (Unchanged)
8. Steve Bullock (Unchanged)
9. Pete Buttigieg (Unchanged)
10. Joe Biden (Unchanged)
11. John Delaney (Unchanged)
8. Steve Bullock (Unchanged)
9. Pete Buttigieg (Unchanged)
10. Joe Biden (Unchanged)
11. John Delaney (Unchanged)
12. Corey Booker (Up from 14)
13. John Hickenlooper (9)
14. Kristin Gillibrand (Down from 6) Her attack on Joe Biden was very dishonest. I hope she starts looking for the exit once she officially fails to make the next debate stage..
15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged)
16. Seth Moulton (Up from 17)
17. Joe Sestak (Up from 18)
18. Bernie Sanders (Unchanged)
13. John Hickenlooper (9)
14. Kristin Gillibrand (Down from 6) Her attack on Joe Biden was very dishonest. I hope she starts looking for the exit once she officially fails to make the next debate stage..
15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged)
16. Seth Moulton (Up from 17)
17. Joe Sestak (Up from 18)
18. Bernie Sanders (Unchanged)
19. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)
20. Wayne Messam (Unchanged)
21. Bill de Blasio (Down from19) He is a prick.
22. Tulsi Gabbard (Unchanged)
23. Marianne Williamson (Down from 20)
21. Bill de Blasio (Down from19) He is a prick.
22. Tulsi Gabbard (Unchanged)
23. Marianne Williamson (Down from 20)
IV.. The Horse Race, Take Six.
This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers.
The Top Tier Candidates
There are no changes in this tier from last time.
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Bernie Sanders
5. Pete Buttigieg
The Pack
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Bernie Sanders
5. Pete Buttigieg
The Pack
Swapped the Texans.
6. Cory Booker (Unchanged)
7. Beto O'Rourke (8)
8. Julian Castro (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)
Flawed and/or Floundering
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)
Flawed and/or Floundering
Only 4 candidates left here, down from six last time. I think Gillibrand and Ryan have been exposed as candidates with no particular rational or political base to draw from. They are long shots.
10. Jay Inslee (Up from 13)
11. John Hickenloper (Up from 12)
12. Michael Bennett (Down from 10)
13. John Delaney (Up from 14)
13. John Delaney (Up from 14)
Long Shots
14. Steve Bullock (Up from 19)
15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged at 15, but down a tier to long shot, because he is meathead.)
16. Kristen Gillibrand (Down from 10)
17. Bill de Blasio (Unchanged)18. Joe Sestak (Unchanged)
19. Tulsi Gabbbard Unchanged)
20. Seth Moulton (17)
Train Wrecks
21. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)
22. Wayne Messam (Up from 23, by attrition)
23. Marrianne Williamson (Up from 24, also by attrition)
Train Wrecks
21. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)
22. Wayne Messam (Up from 23, by attrition)
23. Marrianne Williamson (Up from 24, also by attrition)
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Second Round of Democratic Debates
This should be the last debate with 20 candidates. It is an unwieldy way to run an election and it is wasteful of air time.
It's hard to grade performances across two nights, especially when half of the candidates are not serious. So I'm going to rank the 20 candidates from most to least likely to be elected president next year. I will give each of them two grades-one for how they performed tactically-that is whether or not they advanced their cause in the short term. And then a separate grade for how they performed strategically-that is did they enhance their actual chances of becoming president (or enhancing their long term political prospects.) At some point, I will stop giving strategic great because half of these people are running to boost their speaker fees and maybe land a TV gig.
1. Biden Tactical A-, Strategic, B+
Biden drew a lot of heat, just as he did last time. But this time he was prepared. He wasn't in full command of the facts, but he withstood a lot of heat. He is past his prime. But he's probably got enough left in the tank to win this race.
2. Harris Tactical: B-, Strategic: B.
Harris obviously listened to all the good press she got after attacking Biden in the first debate. Tonight she seemed unprepared to receive the same kind of fire from everyone else on the stage. She was the star of the fist debate, she was middling tonight.
That said, I'm bullish on her candidacy. I think she made a big mistake by committing to a huge tax cut as the centerpiece of her campaign, but her health plan is pretty solid and she doesn't alienate independents with her talking points.
3. Warren Tactical B+, Strategic: C.
She landed a lot of good blows on Delaney and some other irrelevancies. That won her the night, but she also expressed some really dumb ideas. That will catch up to her if she's the nominee.
4. Sanders Tactical: B, Strategic: C
His talking points are so vapid that I can't believe people still want him to be president. That's my analysis.
5. Buttigieg Tactical: A, Strategic: A-.
He is good in this format. He's calm and clever and very reassuring. I still think he's a long shot but I think he has elevated his long term prospects more than anyone in the field. If a Democrat wins, he will get an important job.
6. Inselee Tactical: A-, Strategic: A.
He's got an issue that resonates with the base and a demeanor that scores well with moderates. He's a long shot, I won't count him out now.
7. Klobuchar Tactical: B, Strategic: B+
She remains my preferred candidate but there is no getting around the fact that she is boring in this format. Her message should be resonating more-she really is the strongest candidate to beat Trump but it seems unlikely that she will get that chance. I really hope she gets the remaining donors needed to participate in the 3rd debates in Houston, because I think she might do better on a smaller stage.
8. Booker Tactical B+, Strategic: B+
He had a few good moments. He has a lane, but he's not doing much to seize it.
9. Castro Tactical; A-, Strategic: B
He is a good debater and would make a good President some day. But it's hard to think of what demographic he connected with tonight.
10. Bullock Tactical: A-, Strategic: B+
He was good on substance but middling on style. He probably won't make the next debate stage, but if he does, I hope he rehearses getting his talking points out.
11. Beto O'Rourke: Tactical: C+, Strategic: B.
It's easy to forget that he's running in this race. But he made some good points about why he would be a good general election candidate. He already qualified for the next debate, which will be in Texas.
12. John Delaney: Tactical: A
Delaney was annoying and, at times, petulant. But he had one job-to get camera time and to beat the drum for centrism. He gamed the system well-the rules reward making attacks against specific candidates, which invites cross fire. He looked dumb in one or two moments and he's probably doomed to be a punchline down the line. But last night everyone on social media was amazed at how much face time he got. It seemed odd, but it was deliberate.
That said, he's never going to be president. And he doesn't have a long term future in politics. This is an ego campaign by a very rich man. That ego got stroked last night, and he might have made some points that get picked up by Biden or even Harris down the line.
13. Michael Bennett: Tactical: B+
He did fine. And nobody cares. He's not going to become president and he is probably hurting his long term national prospects.
14. Tim Ryan: Tactical: C.
He's a meat head. That's my analysis.
15. Andrew Yang Tactical: B.
He was terrible in the first debate, merely unremarkable this time. He's probably going to wind up with a niche platform going forward. If he's serious about his ideas, he will run for a house seat sometime. But I think he's better suited to being an Internet intellectual.
16. John Hickenlooper. Tactical: C
I think his name is John. Maybe it's Jon. Please don't tell me. It's better not to know.
17. Kristen Gillibrand: Tactical: C.
She is a scrapper. She just sucks at it. Before tonight I thought for sure she would be dropping out soon, but he came loaded for bear tonight and unloaded some heavy smack on Biden. I do not think she has accepted that this race is futile yet. Hopefully not making the cut for debate #3 will provide her that clarity.
18. Bill de Blasio Tactical: D
It's amazing for a politician to be this unlikeable and transparently phony. But we must remember that he's only in Gracie Mansion and on this stage because of Anthony Weiner's dick pics. Fuck him.
19. Gabbard: Tactical: B
She's hard to grade, because I don't know what her agenda is. If she's trying to promote the cause of peace, well then I guess she said some of the right things. But it seems that her real agenda, for reasons known only to her, was to take out Kamala Harris. She unloaded the oppo research on her but to what effect?
You're going to hear more and more speculation about her real motivations as time goes by. I'm reserving judgment for now. But I sleep well knowing that's not going to be the nominee and that she apparently doesn't intend to run for another term in the House.
20. Marianne Williamson Tactical: A-.
She got a few good lines in. The audience applauded her, especially her answer on reparations. She is going to have a very soft landing out of this-she'll grow her base of fans and she'll write more books and what-not in the future. Maybe she will get a talk show or some other platform that no one with her dangerous vies on vaccines and mental health should ever have.
She got some good buzz last night but she will never get above 2 percent in any national poll. And that is the difference between the political parties-Democrats like and admire their hippy aunts, but Republicans vote for their racist uncles.
It's hard to grade performances across two nights, especially when half of the candidates are not serious. So I'm going to rank the 20 candidates from most to least likely to be elected president next year. I will give each of them two grades-one for how they performed tactically-that is whether or not they advanced their cause in the short term. And then a separate grade for how they performed strategically-that is did they enhance their actual chances of becoming president (or enhancing their long term political prospects.) At some point, I will stop giving strategic great because half of these people are running to boost their speaker fees and maybe land a TV gig.
1. Biden Tactical A-, Strategic, B+
Biden drew a lot of heat, just as he did last time. But this time he was prepared. He wasn't in full command of the facts, but he withstood a lot of heat. He is past his prime. But he's probably got enough left in the tank to win this race.
2. Harris Tactical: B-, Strategic: B.
Harris obviously listened to all the good press she got after attacking Biden in the first debate. Tonight she seemed unprepared to receive the same kind of fire from everyone else on the stage. She was the star of the fist debate, she was middling tonight.
That said, I'm bullish on her candidacy. I think she made a big mistake by committing to a huge tax cut as the centerpiece of her campaign, but her health plan is pretty solid and she doesn't alienate independents with her talking points.
3. Warren Tactical B+, Strategic: C.
She landed a lot of good blows on Delaney and some other irrelevancies. That won her the night, but she also expressed some really dumb ideas. That will catch up to her if she's the nominee.
4. Sanders Tactical: B, Strategic: C
His talking points are so vapid that I can't believe people still want him to be president. That's my analysis.
5. Buttigieg Tactical: A, Strategic: A-.
He is good in this format. He's calm and clever and very reassuring. I still think he's a long shot but I think he has elevated his long term prospects more than anyone in the field. If a Democrat wins, he will get an important job.
6. Inselee Tactical: A-, Strategic: A.
He's got an issue that resonates with the base and a demeanor that scores well with moderates. He's a long shot, I won't count him out now.
7. Klobuchar Tactical: B, Strategic: B+
She remains my preferred candidate but there is no getting around the fact that she is boring in this format. Her message should be resonating more-she really is the strongest candidate to beat Trump but it seems unlikely that she will get that chance. I really hope she gets the remaining donors needed to participate in the 3rd debates in Houston, because I think she might do better on a smaller stage.
8. Booker Tactical B+, Strategic: B+
He had a few good moments. He has a lane, but he's not doing much to seize it.
9. Castro Tactical; A-, Strategic: B
He is a good debater and would make a good President some day. But it's hard to think of what demographic he connected with tonight.
10. Bullock Tactical: A-, Strategic: B+
He was good on substance but middling on style. He probably won't make the next debate stage, but if he does, I hope he rehearses getting his talking points out.
11. Beto O'Rourke: Tactical: C+, Strategic: B.
It's easy to forget that he's running in this race. But he made some good points about why he would be a good general election candidate. He already qualified for the next debate, which will be in Texas.
12. John Delaney: Tactical: A
Delaney was annoying and, at times, petulant. But he had one job-to get camera time and to beat the drum for centrism. He gamed the system well-the rules reward making attacks against specific candidates, which invites cross fire. He looked dumb in one or two moments and he's probably doomed to be a punchline down the line. But last night everyone on social media was amazed at how much face time he got. It seemed odd, but it was deliberate.
That said, he's never going to be president. And he doesn't have a long term future in politics. This is an ego campaign by a very rich man. That ego got stroked last night, and he might have made some points that get picked up by Biden or even Harris down the line.
13. Michael Bennett: Tactical: B+
He did fine. And nobody cares. He's not going to become president and he is probably hurting his long term national prospects.
14. Tim Ryan: Tactical: C.
He's a meat head. That's my analysis.
15. Andrew Yang Tactical: B.
He was terrible in the first debate, merely unremarkable this time. He's probably going to wind up with a niche platform going forward. If he's serious about his ideas, he will run for a house seat sometime. But I think he's better suited to being an Internet intellectual.
16. John Hickenlooper. Tactical: C
I think his name is John. Maybe it's Jon. Please don't tell me. It's better not to know.
17. Kristen Gillibrand: Tactical: C.
She is a scrapper. She just sucks at it. Before tonight I thought for sure she would be dropping out soon, but he came loaded for bear tonight and unloaded some heavy smack on Biden. I do not think she has accepted that this race is futile yet. Hopefully not making the cut for debate #3 will provide her that clarity.
18. Bill de Blasio Tactical: D
It's amazing for a politician to be this unlikeable and transparently phony. But we must remember that he's only in Gracie Mansion and on this stage because of Anthony Weiner's dick pics. Fuck him.
19. Gabbard: Tactical: B
She's hard to grade, because I don't know what her agenda is. If she's trying to promote the cause of peace, well then I guess she said some of the right things. But it seems that her real agenda, for reasons known only to her, was to take out Kamala Harris. She unloaded the oppo research on her but to what effect?
You're going to hear more and more speculation about her real motivations as time goes by. I'm reserving judgment for now. But I sleep well knowing that's not going to be the nominee and that she apparently doesn't intend to run for another term in the House.
20. Marianne Williamson Tactical: A-.
She got a few good lines in. The audience applauded her, especially her answer on reparations. She is going to have a very soft landing out of this-she'll grow her base of fans and she'll write more books and what-not in the future. Maybe she will get a talk show or some other platform that no one with her dangerous vies on vaccines and mental health should ever have.
She got some good buzz last night but she will never get above 2 percent in any national poll. And that is the difference between the political parties-Democrats like and admire their hippy aunts, but Republicans vote for their racist uncles.
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Quick Thoughts on the Democratic Debate Lottery
Tomorrow night CNN will hold a live draw for the next Democratic debate. The first debate draw was done privately and was completely random. That resulted in an imbalanced division of the major candidates, with Warren hogging the first night and the other four debating each other on the second night. For this second set of debates, the candidates will be divided into three tiers. Each debate will get:
1. Two each among Biden, Harris, Sanders and Warren.
2. Three each among Buttigieg, Booker, Castro, Kloubuchar, O'Rourke and Yang.
3. Five each among: Bennet, Bullock, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenloper, Inslee, Ryan and Williamson.
Let's ignore the middling candidates and the kiddy table folks. One or two of them will have a good night, but very few people will be tuning in to see them. The main question is how will the top four candidtes be divide? There are only three possible permutations of leading candidates. Here are my thoughts on each, with a brief word about which order would be more ineresting.:
1. Biden and Harris // Sanders and Warren.
Biden versus Harris would be built up as a rematch of the most memorable exhange from the first debate. Hopefully this time Biden will come prepared. Harris might prefer to be matched with one of the other choices, since she already got her licks in on Biden. Or she might look at it as her chance to firm up her sanding among the moderate wing, while Elizaberth Warren and Bernie get framed as the left-wing prospects on the other night.
Both of these pairings will bring in a good audience. If I'm Warren, I want to go on the second night because last time Harris carried the news cycle for several days after Warren's strong performance against the tomato cans she drew on opening night.
2. Biden and Sanders // Harris and Warren.
A good old-fashioned guys versus dolls scenario. Bernie probably wants to pummel Biden using his 2016 Hillary playbook. But that will feel very tired and I think Harris and Warren would wind up collectively elevating the discourse in their debate. If this is the draw, then Harris and Warren will want to be second. Let the old white guys get the stage warm for them, and then try to bring the discussion into the 21st century.
If this is the draw, I really hope it's Biden/Sanders on the first night, followed by Warren and Harris on the second. I think Biden and Sanders will make each other look old, especially if Buttigieg and or Beto are on the stage with them.
3. Biden and Warren // Harris and Sanders.
This is probably the comination that CNN would most want to avoid. But this is the one I am rootinng for. Biden and Warren have some very substantive beef that goes back to when Biden was reffered to as the senator from MBNA and Warren was a bankruptcy scholar at Harvard Law. Biden was a driving force behind the 2005 amendments to the Bankruptcy Code and Warren made her reputation as a public academic by decrying that very law. I doubt the CNN panelists know much about this so it might be a wasted story line, but I'm pretty sure Senator Warren will force some part of the conversation on to this terrain. She is chomping at the bit to tell the world that Joe Biden was on the side of credit card companies. She knows better than anyone the high human cost of those "reforms."
Warren will clean Biden's clock with facts and figures. He might come prepared for Harris this time, but he cannot match Warren's economic sophistication. Biden will probably be hoping that foreign affairs are a prominent part of the debate in this permutation. But my money would be on Warren forching him to talk about middle class economics. And that is her strength.
If Biden draws Warren, he will want it to be on the first night. He can't take another extended news cycle about him getting his ass kicked by a woman. CNN would rather have this on the second night, because the substance of their exchanges will be a lot more compelling than Bernie vs. Kamala.
Sunday, June 30, 2019
After the First Debate: 2020 Democratic Field, Take 5
The first Democratic debates were held this week and the field has officially been shaken up. Kamala Harris laid a big heavy glove on the front-runner and now the betting markets have the race as essentially even between three candidates-Biden, Harris and Warren. I will discuss how each candidate did and then list my new power rankings.
I. Five Candidates Who Helped Themselves, At Least a Little.
1. Kamala Harris. She came hunting for Joe Biden and stalked him at the perfect moment. Joe should have been prepared for this, but he wasn't. You do not want to run the Democratic primary for president on a position of "Civil Rights is a state and local issue." But that's where Kamala put him. She had been pretty stagnant in the polls. It will be interesting to see if that changes now, because she will have a bullseye on her back at the next debate. I expect she will come prepared to defend the inevitible attack on her record as Attorney General of California. The one good thing about our absurdly long primary process is that everyone gets a turn in the barrell.
2. Elizabeth Warren. She caught a bit of a break in the candidate lottery and was the only top tier candidate on the stage Wednesday. She did not squander the spotlight, although her glowing reviews only lasted for 24 hours.
3. Pete Buttigieg. I have been dismissive of his candidacy. I still do not think that being mayor of South Bend makes you qualified to be President of the Untied States. But he was prepared for this glaring weakness-the state of South Bend's police department. He took the questions seriously and owned up to his failures. He also resisted the temptation to tell Swalwell to STFU when he started spouting off at him from the cheap seats. He may not be ready for the Oval Office yet, but I would like to see him in one of those jobs that will prepare him for it one day-maybe ambassador to the UN.
4. Julian Castro. Castro knew he had to move up the pile, at least by one rung and he decided that Beto O'Rourke would be that run to climb over. He did well and I think he might get a modest boost in the polls. But he remains a long shot.
5. Amy Klobuchar. She has been my preferred candidate from the start, so maybe she bleongs in the tier below this one. But she was serious and thoughtful and might benefit some from Biden's glass jaw being tagged. She's going to need to stand out in the second debate to not fall off the list of serious candidates.
II. Six Candidates Who Helped Themselves But It Does Not Matter.
On the first night, John Delaney an Bill de Blasio both did a reasonable job of getting their points across. They needed to be heard and they were. But they will not be president of the United States anytime soon. Eric Swalwell took a similar tack on the second debate to a similar result.
Michael Bennet did well on the second night but it's really hard to imagine how he gets any traction in this crowded field. He probably would have been a solid VP choice if he didn't run and maybe he's hoping the solid debate perofrmances will elevate his profile as a senator down the road.
The Two Governors in the field-Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper also had competent but uninspiring nights. They deserve to remain in their current jobs, which is a sort of compliment, I guess.
III. Three Candidates Who Hurt Their Chances of Being President.
1. Joe Biden. Mike Tyson once said of a vanguished opponent "Everybody's got a plan until the get hit." Biden's plan was to ride the popularity of his former boss to the nomination and the unpopularity of his opponent to the Oval Office. Things will not be that simple. He now has to come up with a narrtive that explains why he was opposed to busing for some reason other than being a bigot. There are many thoughtful critques of busing, and he might be able to cobble together an explanation. The problem is that he talked about this issue a lot over the years and it will not be hard for his opponents to make him look bad. That goes for the general election too. Donald Trump is so stupid he seemed to think the question of busing related to what type of transportation kids take to and from school. But his noise machine will not be afraid to run Facebook ads claiming that Biden is a bigot, just as they did against Hillary Clinton. This is a real problem.
I also think that his age showed poorly that night. Is this someone you want to be President nine and a half years from now? It's a fair question.
2. Bernie Sanders. Allowing 20 candidates to debate is a joke. The Democrats have committed to do so at least twice. That struck me as crazy but I think there may be some method to the madness-Bernie got a lot of mileage from being the only opponent on the stage against Hillary Clinton. But in a crowded stage, Bernie repeating his simplisitc solution to everything-"Stand up to Wall Street!" sounded really fucking stupid. He didn't direct that attack at any candidate, probably because he's not sure who is rivals are yet. (He mighat have tried to go after Warren if they were on the same night.) The result was that his words just felt like a vaccuous drone.
The Democrats do have a Bernie problem, though. He is not running to win. He is running to continue the process of shifting the paty leftward and creating a genuinely Leftist lane in American presidential politics. That means he will not drop out, even if the nomination has been sewn up by a more serious person. One year from now, he might just be a huge pain in everyone's ass.
3. Beto O'Rourke. Biden was unprepared for one specific thing. Beto was both unprepared and underwhelming. He does not seem to have figured out how to ramp-up his senate campaign into a national one.
4. Corey Booker. I mean, he wasn't terrible. People inclined to like him, thought he did fine. But it's hard to see his support growing off of that performance. He has a better chance than Klobuchar or O'Rourke of surviving past the early states but I think he is also a long shot.
IV. Six Candidates Who Performed Poorly But It Doesn't Really Matter.
Tulsi Gabbard did a decent job of sounding like the candidate of peace but she never seems fully engaged with her surrounding and frankly gives off the vague vibe of someone who was raised in a cult and/or is overly sympathetic to Russia and the Taliban. Tim Ryan managed to get the worst of an exchange with her whee he was taking the anti-Taliban position. That does not auger well for his chances in this race but he also seemed to be running for some nebulous "voice of the Rust Belt" job that doesn't actually exist.
Eric Swalwell was smarmy and gruff. I don't expect anyone to rally around that cause now. Andrew Yang straight-up choked. He didn't bother to wear a tie and he had nothing interesting to say. He did not belong on that stage.
Kirsten Gillibrand gets points for making an effort to be involved but all of her interjections fell flat because everyone knows that she is a dead-flat scratch in almost every single poll-national or statewide. She recently got zero percent in a poll of Democratic primary voters in Florida. That is impposisble for a senator from New York. (Consider that Hillary won the Florida primary by 17 points in 2008 and by 12 in 2016.) Equally baffling for a New Yorker, she is having trouble raising funds. It seems very possible that she will not qualify to be on the stage at the end of July. She is probably only doing permanent damage to her political prospects.
Marriane Willamson taught us all how to love and birthed 1,000 SNL audition tapes.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Julian Castro (5)
5. Beto O'Rourke (4)
6. Kristin Gillibrand
7. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
8. Steve Bullock (Obviously he needs to make the next debate if he wants to stick around, but I hope he does.)
9. Pete Buttigieg (13)
10. Joe Biden (8)
11. John Delaney (13)
12. John Hickenlooper (9)
13. Jay Inslee (10)
14. Corey Booker
15. Tim Ryan (11)
16. Eric Swalwell (15)
17. Seth Moulton (16)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Bernie Sanders (18)
20. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
21. Wayne Messam
22. Andrew Yang (17)
23. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
24. Mike Gravel (21)
25. Marianne Williamson (20)
VI. The Horse Race, Take Five.
This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. There is a lot more movement here than in my personal preferences.
The Top Tier Candidates (Five, Up From Three Last Time)
1. Joe Biden (2)
2. Elizabeth Warren (6)
3. Kamala Harris (4)
4. Bernie Sanders (1)
5. Pete Buttigieg (3)
The Pack (Four Candidates, Down From Six Last Time)
6. Cory Booker (5)
7. Julian Castro (9)
8. Beto O'Rourke (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)
Flawed and/or Floundering (Six Candidates, Down From Eight Last Time)
10. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
11. Kristen Gillibrand (10)
12. Jay Inslee (13)
13. John Hickenlooper (12)
14. John Delaney
15. Tim Ryan (11)
Long Shots
16. Steve Bullock (19)
17. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Tulsi Gabbbard (16)
20. Seth Moulton (17)
21. Eric Swalwell (15)
Train Wrecks
22. Andrew Yang (18)
23. Wayne Messam (20) I misspelled his name last time, which I'm sure you all noticed and were very upset about.
24. Marrianne Williamson (21)
25. Mike Gravel (22)
I. Five Candidates Who Helped Themselves, At Least a Little.
1. Kamala Harris. She came hunting for Joe Biden and stalked him at the perfect moment. Joe should have been prepared for this, but he wasn't. You do not want to run the Democratic primary for president on a position of "Civil Rights is a state and local issue." But that's where Kamala put him. She had been pretty stagnant in the polls. It will be interesting to see if that changes now, because she will have a bullseye on her back at the next debate. I expect she will come prepared to defend the inevitible attack on her record as Attorney General of California. The one good thing about our absurdly long primary process is that everyone gets a turn in the barrell.
2. Elizabeth Warren. She caught a bit of a break in the candidate lottery and was the only top tier candidate on the stage Wednesday. She did not squander the spotlight, although her glowing reviews only lasted for 24 hours.
3. Pete Buttigieg. I have been dismissive of his candidacy. I still do not think that being mayor of South Bend makes you qualified to be President of the Untied States. But he was prepared for this glaring weakness-the state of South Bend's police department. He took the questions seriously and owned up to his failures. He also resisted the temptation to tell Swalwell to STFU when he started spouting off at him from the cheap seats. He may not be ready for the Oval Office yet, but I would like to see him in one of those jobs that will prepare him for it one day-maybe ambassador to the UN.
4. Julian Castro. Castro knew he had to move up the pile, at least by one rung and he decided that Beto O'Rourke would be that run to climb over. He did well and I think he might get a modest boost in the polls. But he remains a long shot.
5. Amy Klobuchar. She has been my preferred candidate from the start, so maybe she bleongs in the tier below this one. But she was serious and thoughtful and might benefit some from Biden's glass jaw being tagged. She's going to need to stand out in the second debate to not fall off the list of serious candidates.
II. Six Candidates Who Helped Themselves But It Does Not Matter.
On the first night, John Delaney an Bill de Blasio both did a reasonable job of getting their points across. They needed to be heard and they were. But they will not be president of the United States anytime soon. Eric Swalwell took a similar tack on the second debate to a similar result.
Michael Bennet did well on the second night but it's really hard to imagine how he gets any traction in this crowded field. He probably would have been a solid VP choice if he didn't run and maybe he's hoping the solid debate perofrmances will elevate his profile as a senator down the road.
The Two Governors in the field-Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper also had competent but uninspiring nights. They deserve to remain in their current jobs, which is a sort of compliment, I guess.
III. Three Candidates Who Hurt Their Chances of Being President.
1. Joe Biden. Mike Tyson once said of a vanguished opponent "Everybody's got a plan until the get hit." Biden's plan was to ride the popularity of his former boss to the nomination and the unpopularity of his opponent to the Oval Office. Things will not be that simple. He now has to come up with a narrtive that explains why he was opposed to busing for some reason other than being a bigot. There are many thoughtful critques of busing, and he might be able to cobble together an explanation. The problem is that he talked about this issue a lot over the years and it will not be hard for his opponents to make him look bad. That goes for the general election too. Donald Trump is so stupid he seemed to think the question of busing related to what type of transportation kids take to and from school. But his noise machine will not be afraid to run Facebook ads claiming that Biden is a bigot, just as they did against Hillary Clinton. This is a real problem.
I also think that his age showed poorly that night. Is this someone you want to be President nine and a half years from now? It's a fair question.
2. Bernie Sanders. Allowing 20 candidates to debate is a joke. The Democrats have committed to do so at least twice. That struck me as crazy but I think there may be some method to the madness-Bernie got a lot of mileage from being the only opponent on the stage against Hillary Clinton. But in a crowded stage, Bernie repeating his simplisitc solution to everything-"Stand up to Wall Street!" sounded really fucking stupid. He didn't direct that attack at any candidate, probably because he's not sure who is rivals are yet. (He mighat have tried to go after Warren if they were on the same night.) The result was that his words just felt like a vaccuous drone.
The Democrats do have a Bernie problem, though. He is not running to win. He is running to continue the process of shifting the paty leftward and creating a genuinely Leftist lane in American presidential politics. That means he will not drop out, even if the nomination has been sewn up by a more serious person. One year from now, he might just be a huge pain in everyone's ass.
3. Beto O'Rourke. Biden was unprepared for one specific thing. Beto was both unprepared and underwhelming. He does not seem to have figured out how to ramp-up his senate campaign into a national one.
4. Corey Booker. I mean, he wasn't terrible. People inclined to like him, thought he did fine. But it's hard to see his support growing off of that performance. He has a better chance than Klobuchar or O'Rourke of surviving past the early states but I think he is also a long shot.
IV. Six Candidates Who Performed Poorly But It Doesn't Really Matter.
Tulsi Gabbard did a decent job of sounding like the candidate of peace but she never seems fully engaged with her surrounding and frankly gives off the vague vibe of someone who was raised in a cult and/or is overly sympathetic to Russia and the Taliban. Tim Ryan managed to get the worst of an exchange with her whee he was taking the anti-Taliban position. That does not auger well for his chances in this race but he also seemed to be running for some nebulous "voice of the Rust Belt" job that doesn't actually exist.
Eric Swalwell was smarmy and gruff. I don't expect anyone to rally around that cause now. Andrew Yang straight-up choked. He didn't bother to wear a tie and he had nothing interesting to say. He did not belong on that stage.
Kirsten Gillibrand gets points for making an effort to be involved but all of her interjections fell flat because everyone knows that she is a dead-flat scratch in almost every single poll-national or statewide. She recently got zero percent in a poll of Democratic primary voters in Florida. That is impposisble for a senator from New York. (Consider that Hillary won the Florida primary by 17 points in 2008 and by 12 in 2016.) Equally baffling for a New Yorker, she is having trouble raising funds. It seems very possible that she will not qualify to be on the stage at the end of July. She is probably only doing permanent damage to her political prospects.
Marriane Willamson taught us all how to love and birthed 1,000 SNL audition tapes.
V. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Five:
These are the candidates ranked purely by my personal preferences. The number in Parenthesis indicates their rank in the Previous Rankings. The field has grown by three candidates since the last time I did these rankings. Not much movement at the top, but Buttigiege moved up by 4 spots and dear old Marrianne Williamson dropped by five.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Julian Castro (5)
5. Beto O'Rourke (4)
6. Kristin Gillibrand
7. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
8. Steve Bullock (Obviously he needs to make the next debate if he wants to stick around, but I hope he does.)
9. Pete Buttigieg (13)
10. Joe Biden (8)
11. John Delaney (13)
12. John Hickenlooper (9)
13. Jay Inslee (10)
14. Corey Booker
15. Tim Ryan (11)
16. Eric Swalwell (15)
17. Seth Moulton (16)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Bernie Sanders (18)
20. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
21. Wayne Messam
22. Andrew Yang (17)
23. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
24. Mike Gravel (21)
25. Marianne Williamson (20)
VI. The Horse Race, Take Five.
This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. There is a lot more movement here than in my personal preferences.
The Top Tier Candidates (Five, Up From Three Last Time)
1. Joe Biden (2)
2. Elizabeth Warren (6)
3. Kamala Harris (4)
4. Bernie Sanders (1)
5. Pete Buttigieg (3)
The Pack (Four Candidates, Down From Six Last Time)
6. Cory Booker (5)
7. Julian Castro (9)
8. Beto O'Rourke (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)
Flawed and/or Floundering (Six Candidates, Down From Eight Last Time)
10. Michael Bennett (Unranked)
11. Kristen Gillibrand (10)
12. Jay Inslee (13)
13. John Hickenlooper (12)
14. John Delaney
15. Tim Ryan (11)
Long Shots
16. Steve Bullock (19)
17. Bill de Blasio (Unranked)
18. Joe Sestak (Unranked)
19. Tulsi Gabbbard (16)
20. Seth Moulton (17)
21. Eric Swalwell (15)
Train Wrecks
22. Andrew Yang (18)
23. Wayne Messam (20) I misspelled his name last time, which I'm sure you all noticed and were very upset about.
24. Marrianne Williamson (21)
25. Mike Gravel (22)
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