The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

Oscar Thoughts, 2022/2023

When the nominations came out, I had only seen one of the Best Picture nominee. I've now seen eight. So there is a lot of recency bias below. But I will speak up for one summer movie that was slighted.  The Batman should have gotten a Best Picture nomination, a directing nomination and at least one acting nomination. (For Zoe Kravitz.)

That said, here are the nominations:

Best Picture:

1. Triangle of Sadness. I knew nothing about this movie and I'm pretty sure I would have skipped it if someone described it for me, so I'm not going to say anything specific. But it is, by far, my favorite movie of the year.

2. Tar. Probably going to be remembered over time as the definitive character study of a narcissist.

3. The Banshees of Inisherin. I was asked if this movie is depressing and I said, "Not by Irish standards." (So yes. Quite depressing for the rest of Chistendom.)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Nothing new here, but it's well made and it's nice to know the Germans are still anti-war. (Need to keep an eye on that every few years.)

5. The Fablemans The story is a little tame but it's got the usual Spielberg signs of excellence. Oh and Seth Rogen is in it, for some reason.

6. Women Talking. Boring and non-sensical but hey, can't say they didn't warn us, right fellas? Just kidding. It's fine. I liked the cast. Has gaping plot hole that I guess we'll just call a conceit and move on.

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once. I know there are a lot of really smart people who insist that multiverses are possible and I have no reason to doubt that, but holy shit do they ruin literature. And the driving force behind the script seems to be, "If you think of it, we're keeping it in the movie." So once again, can't say they didnt warn us.

8. Elvis. I'll go full Ebert: I hated, hated, hated this movie. It is ahistoric, insulting to the intelligence, poorly  acted and probably the worst editing job I've ever seen. Ful disclosure: I only watched the first 45 minutes but I will never have the time to watch the rest of it.

*Did Not See*
9. Top Gun Maverick. Pilot propaganda from a Scientologist. No, thank you.

10. Avatar. I still have not forgiven Cameron for "unobtanium" and I think it's depressing that this sequel to a movie no one remembers made a billion dollars just by force of marketing will.

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Best Director:

1 & 2. Tar & Triangle of Sadness are both extremely worthy of winning this. I liked Triangle better as a movie but Todd Field has only directed three movies and they are all fantastic. I can't quibble with him winning if he does.

3. Fablemans. Speilberg has already won twice, so I doubt he will win.

4. Banshees is a good movie but not especially challenging to film, so I doubt this wins.

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once.  I know I'm an outlier.

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Best Actor.

1. Colin Firth This is the only nominated movie I saw, apart from 1/3 of that terrible Elvis impression that the kid is still doing in interviews. God I hope he doesn't win.

Prediction: Probably Brendan Fraser but Frith has a shot. Just rooting against Elvis. Like Chuck D trained me to do.

Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett and this is not close. But she's already won twice so she's probably a slight under dog.
2. Michelle Yeoh. I mean...she was good. But honestly, can you think of 3 adjectives to describe her character? I can't.
3. I didn't see To Leslie but she had to be better than....
4. Michelle Williams. She owned a monkey. And she looks great in a backlit see-thru dress. That is what I remember about her character. Oh and she had a crush on Seth Rogen, for some reason.
5. Ana de Armas. The most beautiful woman in the world and she did a goo d Marilyn impression but I had to give up on this movie for its pure dreariness.

Prediction: Yeoh

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Kerry Condon, Banshees.
2. Stephanie Hsu, Everything
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everthing

I didn't see the Whale or Black Panther 

Prediction: Condon

Best Supporting Actor;
1. Judd Hirsch, the Fabelmans. Not much screen time, but he brought the movie to life for those few minutes.
2. Barry Keoghan, Banshees.
3. Brendan Gleeson, Banshees
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything. I will be delighted if he won, and I think he was the best part of this movie but by now you've probably figured out I'm not a fan of it overall.

Apparently the 5th nomination went to Bryan Henry for a movie called "Causeway." Congrats to him.

Prediction: Short Round. People will love that story. The Banshees actors probably split votes and Hirsch's role is too small but at least he prevented Seth Rogen from probably getting a nomination, (for some reason). 

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Triangle of Sadness. So maybe some of the dialogue is a little too on the nose, but this movie is original with a capital O. And there is one scene in this movie that I will want to watch on YouTube ever three months for the rest of my life. 

2. Tar.

3. Banshees

4. Fablemans

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.  But maybe, just maybe Triangle. That would be awesome.

Best Adapted Screenplay;

1. Glass Onion. The finale was 10 minutes too long but I still think this is the best script nominated.

2. Women Talking. This is a talker and the dialogue is first rate but I have to reference the plot hole again, which was distracting.

 [Spoiler Warning for the plot hole: Where the hell are they going to go? How does it possibly end well for any of them?]

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

Didn't see Living or Top Gun.

Prediction: Women Talking.

A Look Back at the Midterms and a Peak, God Help Me, at 2024.

I. What Did We Learn?

I will get to my predictions report card, but first I want to discuss a few things the midterms taught as about about where the voting public is.

1. Abortion Access is Very Popular.

Any serious analysis of these midterms has to begin with the simple fact that a clear and convincing majority of American voters want abortion to be generally legal.  The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade was an electoral disaster for the Republicans. It probably determined control of the senate and might have made the difference in at least two governor's races. (Wisconsin & Arizona.)  The issues was on the ballot directly in at least five states and all five states voted in favor of keeping abortion legal. 

Voters in Vermont voted to create a constitutional right to reproductive autonomy by more than three to one. California voted for something similar by two one and Michigan voted for one by 14 points. But even in Kentucky and Montana anti-abortion measures were defeated by five points. 

The Republicans would be wise to let the Democrats codify Roe during the lame duck session. Murkowski and Collins could provide 2 votes if Manchin and Sinema are still hold outs. (Sinema, at least, would be wise to changer her mind on the that point anyway.)

But I don't think the Republicans are ready to cut ties to their hardcore base just yet.

2. State Political Parties Matter.

Democrats got amazing results in places like Michigan. They won close senate races in EVERY presidential battleground that had a contest this time. But they also got clobbered in Florida, lost some important house races in New York and (to a lesser extent) in California. 

Ron DeSantis was expected to be re-elected governor of Florida. But no one had him winning by almost 20 points. There are three things that helped DeSantis here:

1. The FL Democratic Party is just not very good. 

2. FL had a major hurricane in late summer and the response to it was pretty well organized and competent. Voters remember that.

3. Some independent and moderately conservative Republican voters probably wanted to build up DeSantis as an alternative to Donald Trump.  (Trump v. DeSantis will be the subject of an upcoming post.)

Other governors with good ground games from both parties were rewarded with wins by larger than expected margins. This happened for Democrats in Wisconsin and Michigan and for Republicans in Georgia and New Hampshire. Worth noting that Wisconsin, Georgia and New Hampshire favored people from different parties to the senate and the governor's mansion. (Michigan did not have a senate race this year.)

One governor who did struggle a bit is Kathy Hochul in New York. It's worth noting that this is her first time running for Governor. The NYS Democratic party had a bad night. Hochul can expect to be governor for as long as she wants, but she will have to grow into the job a little bit and not let the narrative around crime dominate the discussion next time. But her bigger task is to reform the state Democratic party with an emphasis on getting the Cuomo holdouts to get on board and let go of what their boss did to himself. This will not be as easy as it should be. Control of the House of Representative just might depend on it.

It appears that the California Democratic party also underperformed in some House races. Two there and 2 in New York could have kept the House blue, but that was always a long shot. 

3. Americans Like Democracy. 

The most heart-warming story of election night is that election deniers lost in every secretary of state election across the country. Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada were all in real peril of nominating someone who was very unlikely to certify the presidential election if a Democrat carried their state. The 2024 election will be far from perfect but it seems likely that every state will certify whatever candidate gets the most votes. And that makes all the difference.

4. Biden's Favorability Ratings are Deceptive.

The biggest reason that most pundits expected a Red Wave is that Joe Biden's job approval numbers have been underwater ever since he made the decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.

The 538 average has him at 42 approval, 53 disapproval. That number should have meant disaster for Democrats. But they held their own. 

I think some people disapprove of Joe Biden simply because he is old. They wish he was younger and snappier at press conferences. They suspect he has lost a step. But it is equally true that they like his policies. And I suspect in 2024 they will prefer him to the alternative, but more on that later. 

II. What Does This Mean for 2024?

A. The Primaries.

The day after the election, two story lines sunk their hooks into the Zeitgeist: Biden was going to be the Democratic nominee (correct) and DeSantis was going to beat Trump for the GOP nomination. (unlikely).

1. Yes, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee, assuming he is still alive and well. He is really fucking good at politics. The institutional party has figured this out. Look at the job he just did in keeping the Senate and nearly holding the house.  

He end our longest war. He rallied the world to the cause of Ukraine. And our economy is better off than most of the world. Some of these things may change in time to hurt him in the general election, but they will not prevent him from sailing to the nomination. 

2. Ron DeSantis is the biggest threat to Trump in the Republican primary but he is a clear underdog. 

DeSantis can probably convince a whole bunch of rich people that he is Trumpism without Trump. They will write him large checks because most of those guys (and all of their wives) find Trump to be personally ridiculous. They also now know that he's not terribly popular with swing voters and has terrible political instincts. (The GOP might have won GA and PA senate seats if Trump didn't big foot on behalf of terrible candidates there.)

3. Beating Trump in the 2024 Primary is a Booby Prize. Does anyone think that Trump will graciously accept losing the nomination to DeSantis?  If so, you have not been paying attention for the past seven years. He will either try to mount a desperate third party campaign or merely discourage his followers from supporting whoever "stole" the nomination from him. 

If Ron DeSantis wants to be president, he should wait for 2028. He can serve out the rest of his term, nominally support Trump from the sidelines and then enter the presidential race to be held two months after he turns 50. He can be a rich ex-two term president before he is 60. So the real question is, is Ron DeSantis smart enough to know this or too anxious for his own good?  He has been awfully quiet since the election That's probably best for him. He can let Trump suck up some oxygen for a few months and decide in the spring. 

I suspect he is getting a lot of calls from people telling him to announce or else they will declare for some other candidate. That will have some influence. But most of the field are light weights. He's not going to lose to Nikki Haley or Rick Scott. The only thing he has to worry about is a large field of 10 or 12 candidates forming and allowing Trump to get the nomination by winning pluralities in the key states. 

4. Keep an eye on Brian Kemp of Georgia. He beat Stacey Abrams by eight points and got more than 200,000 more votes than Herschel Walker did in the senate race. He has a much more credible story to tell as a post-Trump candidate than Ron DeSantis will.  If I'm a Republican primary voter in 2024, I might just decide that any Republican can win Florida but Kemp is the best chance of picking up Georgia. 

B. The General Election. 

A lot can change in 100 weeks, but I expect the election will probably be won or lost in just four states:  Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. Of course it's possible that either party could have a good or terrible campaign and the election will be a modest blowout. But we are still mostly working with a hybrid of the 2012 and 2016 maps.  

1. The Trump 2016 States. 

a. Florida, Iowa and Ohio have been pretty consistently Republican since then.  I think they are likely go Republican in a close 2024 election.

b. Pennsylvania and Michigan have been trending blue since then. I think they will probably go Democratic in a close 2024 election.

c. Wisconsin has been a swing state, including an incumbent Democratic governor and an incumbent Republican senator just a few weeks ago-both by close margins. It could go either way in a close 2024 election.

2. The Biden 2020 States.

Biden won back PA, MI & WI in 2020. He also hung on to NV and flipped Georgia and Arizona.

d. Georgia and Arizona are closely divided states. This year the Republican party squandered good opportunities in AZ-Gov, AZ-Ssen and GA-Sen by running terrible candidates. Brian Kemp trounced Stacy Adams in GA-Gov. And he will easily carry the state if he is the Republican nominee in 2024. But the state is moving leftward and will be competitive in 2024. (Kemp being on the ticket as vice-president would help the GOP too, but not by as much as him being at the top of the ticket.)  Arizona will be competitive in 2024 no matter who is on the respective tickets.

e. Nevada. 

Nevada elected a Republican governor this years but stayed blue in the senate. The Dems have won NV four straight times. But the margin in each of the last two presidential elections was 2.4%. This state will be competitive but because it only has six electoral votes, it is less likely to be decisive than the others.

3.  Electoral College Math. 

The picture at the top of this post is what I think the map will probably look like going into election night 2024. I give MI and PA to the Dems. FL, OH, IA & NC to the Republicans. The second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska are both in play.

 Our starting point is Democrats 259, Republicans 234. To win, the Democrats will need:

1. Georgia (16 electoral votes) 

~or~

2. Arizona (11 EV).

~or~

3. Wisconsin (10 EV) plus Nevada (6 EV)

~or~

4. Wisconsin (10 EV)  plus NV-2 and/or ME-2. 

That's what a close election looks like. Joe Biden needs to string together 11 EV from the 45 EV available in competitive races. Here's my first crack of the probability of winning for various likely match-ups.

1. Biden beats Trump 80%.

2. Biden beats DeSantis 65%.

3. Biden beats Kemp 52%.

4. Harris beats Trump 55%.

5. DeSantis beats Harris 55%.

6. Kemp beats Harris 75%.

III. Predictions Report Card.

Allow me to be a little wonky and to review the predictions I made just before the midterms. Accountability and all-that.

First Prediction: The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.

To be specific, I said the house would turn out 228R, 207D.  (Republicans gain 14 seats.)

It looks like the final result will be 222R, 213D. That's a gain of eight instead of 14. But I think I got the gist of it. 

I mostly avoided talking about specific house races, although this one will haunt me for a while: 

"Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite." Oh, how I wish I was wrong about that. But it looks like she will pull out this race by about 500 votes. And her opponent will be swimming in money next time around.

For the record, I do expect Kevin McCarthy to be the next Speaker. A few hardliners are talking him down but I don't think they can convince a majority to rally behind some other nutter.

GRADE: B+

Second Prediction: Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.

To be specific, I said the Senat would be 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.  

Here I did get specific on a few races. 

a. Arizona: Dems win. Kelly 51, Masters47. (Nailed it!)

b. Georgia goes to a runoff.  Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48. (Nearly nailed it. It wound up Warnock 49, Walker 48.)

c. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49, (Another virtual bullseye. The result was 49-48. I'll take it.)

d. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1. (Well I got the result right, but the margin was much larger than I expected, 51 to 46.)

e. Wisconsin   Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. (Actual result 50.5 to 49.5. So Barnes did about a point better than I expected.)

f.  Ohio.  Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6.  (Actual result 53-47. So Vance did a couple points better than I expected but I wasn't too far off. And Ryan did well enough to drag a couple House seats over the line for the Democrats there. They were only supposed to get three or four seats. They got five.)

g.  North Carolina.  Budd 51, Beasley 47. (Actual result: Nailed it! Bullseye! Huzzah!)

h. New Hampshire.  Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 (Actual result, 54 to 44. My biggest miss in margin. I should have known Bolduc was going to do poorly but I still think of NH as vaguely right wing. The Boston Exurbs may have finally fixed this.) 

So I was Eight for Eight in Results. My Democratic margins were off by 0, -2, -4, -1, +3, 0, -6. That's an average bias of 1.25 points in favor of the GOP.  (Can't accuse me of Homerism this year.)

I was also right in saying that IA, CO & WA would not be as close as some polls suggested.

GRADE: A.

Third Prediction: Governor Races: Treading Water, But Look at the Margin.

a. "The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes."

(Actual Result- 7 for 7 although the Hochul polls don't seem quite so funny now. She won by six and the Dems underperformed down ballot in NYS.)

b.  Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly. (Actual Results: Four out of five ain't bad but I have to own up to missing OK big.)

c. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.

(Actual Results: Happy to say I was only one for three here. Holding on to Kansas was great news, and it makes up for the loss in OK. Nevada was close)

GRADE: B.

  

Final 2022 Midterm Predictions of Extremely Low Confidence

If you play this game, you have to go on the record. I do so in the Year of Our Lord 2022 with very little confidence. But making your best guess is important, especially if you remember to remain humble when that guess turns out correct.  (More or less.)

 1. The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.

Current House: 221D, 214R.

Prediction:  228R, 207D.  (Republicans gain 14 seats.)

It will be hard for the incumbent party to hold on to a razor-thin majority.  A lot has to go right for the Democrats.  But I also do not see them getting blown out.  The Republican won almost every close race last time and while they probably benefitted modestly from reapportionment, I do not think they were able to add many seats from redistricting.

There also has been a modest uptick for the Democrats in tracking polls over the last few days. I think that momentum will keep a few close seats blue.

There are not very many compelling individual races in the House this year. Some of the worst Republicans are leaving this year because of retirement (Goehmert) or primary loss (Cawthorn).  Most of the other really bad ones (Greene, Gaetz) are in very safe seats. Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite.

1. If you want a sign of how things might go for the rest of the country, Florida (13th) and Virginia (2nd) are two races to watch.  Both are currently held by Democrats but both have shifted right after redistricting. If the Dems win both of these races, it's a good sign for them. 

 2. Alaska at-large will be talked about a lot, especially if the Democratic incumbent clears 50% on the first round. (I think she will-just barely.) 

3. Every vote matters. The GOP caucus contains no shortage of people more interested in their brand then in governance. Kevin McCarthy won't be able to get much done if he's trying to ride herd over a 221 seat house. But as his caucus grows, then he can get away with letting them do more stupid things like impeaching Joe Biden to keep Donald Trump happy.  If he has 230 seats, they can probably scratch together 218 who are dumb enough to play that game. If he only has 221 or 222, then he probably can't do that or force a government shutdown that would tank America's credit rating. 

2. Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.

Current Senate: 50 (+1 VP) D, 50 R.

Prediction: 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.

A. This Probably Comes Down to 4 Races. 

I don't think any of these races have a clear favorite but I'll list them in order of confidence.

1.Arizona: Dems win. Their incumbent is popular and normal and those people usually win. Let's call it Kelly 51, Masters47.

2. Georgia goes to a runoff.  Their incumbent is normal and relatively popular but it's a tough environment for Democrats in a state that is still 50-50.  The Republicans nominated a moron but that is not deterring the base at all.  On election night, Walker will have a small lead but come up short of 50.  Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48. 

Pennsylvania & Nevada are truly too close to call. I can see any combination happening here-2R, 2D, 1 of each with either party winning either race. But if I scrutinize the numbers, the polling history, the momentum and the candidate quality, this is where I land. (I think.)

3. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49

4. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1.

B. The Second Tier Races. 

There is a second tier of races here where one party is clearly favored but the other candidate has a reasonable chance of winning. (Reasonable chance defined as the odds of a #9 batter in an average baseball lineup getting a hit in any given at bat against an average pitcher.  (Something close to 20%.)

5. Wisconsin   Ron Johnson is odious. He is dishonest and shitty in several ways. But this state is evenly divided and the environment tilts to the right slightly. So I think that will be enough for Johnson to hold on. 

Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. Chance of an upset: 25%.

6.  Ohio.  J.D. Vance is a weak candidate. Tim Ryan is a pretty strong one but this is a red state and I think Vance will make it through.

Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6.  Chance of an upset: 23%.

7.  North Carolina.  This race has barely been on my radar. Both candidates seem inoffensive, which I think favors the Republican in this environment.

Budd 51, Beasley 47. Chance of an upset: 21%.

8. New Hampshire.  Okay, this is the one to watch if you are a Republican.  I think their candidate should lose but if he wins or keeps it very close, that is a sign that the GOP is headed for a good night.

Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 Chance of an upset: 18%. 

C. Squint and You Can See an Upset.

Polls are sometimes wrong. In another universe, the Dems might be competing in Florida or Iowa. In the world of Trafalgar polling, the Republicans are competing in Washington and Colorado.  But I really don't think any of these races will shock anyone. 

What to Watch: 

1. Democrats probably need to win three of the Big Four Races. 

2. If the Dems  pull an upset in Ohio, Wisconsin or North Carolina, then they can survive with a split of the Big Four.  

3. If the Republicans win New Hampshire, they are probably on the way to a big night in both houses.

3. Governor Races: Treading Water, But Lookin at the Margin.

1. The Big States will stay in their lane.  The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes.

2.  Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly.

3. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.

I am most interested in seeing how some of these races go in comparison to the same state's senate races. I think a lot of voters might want to send the message that candidates matter.  The best way to do that is to vote for a competent normie but against flashy celebrity candidates or full-on crazies. 

IV. Summary.

A lot of these races are going to be very close and turn on silly things like weather or minor nuances in voting procedures. The results of these elections will affect the nation. Worst of all, the parties will extrapolate lessons from tiny wins and losses. Push the ball in the direction your prefer for this country. You have nothing better to do tomorrow.

Race	Result	Details/Margin
House of Rep.	GOP Wins.	A net of 14 seats. GOP 228, DEM 207
Senate	Dems Hold.	A net gain of 1 on Election Night. GA in a Run Off.
AZ Senate	Dem Hold	Kelly by 4
GA-Senate	Runoff	Walker by 1 but under 50%
NV Senate	Dem Hold	Cortez Masto by 1.
PA Senate	Dem Pickup	Fetterman by 0.4 points
WI Senate	GOP Hold	Johnson by 2
Ohio Senate	GOP Hold	Vance by 3
NC Senate	GOP Hold	Budd by 4
NH Senate	Dem Hold	Hassan by 3 and a half points
Governors	Dems Gain	Democrats Gain MD, MA, & OK, lose NV & KS.
KS-Gov	GOP Pickup
NV-Gov	GOP Pickup
OK-Gov	Dem Pickup
OR-Gov	Dem Hold
WI-Gov	Dem Hold	This will be very close.

.

One Week Out Official 2022 Midterm Non-Predictions

I have not written a political post in 15 months. One reason for that is that I have been generally satisfied with the Biden presidency. And my views on 2024 are pretty set-Biden and Trump will both run again. They will probably both be nominated and Biden will be favored to win the rematch.

But the midterms are now upon us and I feel obligated to make at least one post about my expectations. 

Frankly, and here's the party you are waiting for...I don't know what to expect. The strongest assumption going into a midterm is the natural historic tendency for the party in power to do poorly. With an 50/50 Senate and 221/214 House, that usually means the incumbent party will lose both houses by wide margins. But then came Dobbs.  The decision in June by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow states to make abortion a crime. Thirteen states have completely outlawed abortion and Georgia has implemented an absurd six-week cut off for abortions.

The thinking is that this decision and those laws will motivate young people and especially women to vote. Over the summer we had several special congressional elections and a statewide referendum in Kansas that confirmed this theory.

But the polls have undeniably shifted in the Republican direction over the last six weeks or so. I'm not going to ignore that fact. But I do think this is a hard year to poll. The environment is different than some recent midterms for a few reasons:

1. Biden is not very popular but he's also not viscerally hated by the opposing base in the way that Trump and Obama were.

2. Voting is different than it was even four years ago.  A lot of people are now comfortable voting early and by mail. But we're also no longer dealing with COVID in the same way we were in 2020, so I expect a lot of people are planning to vote on election day, as they did for most of their lives.

3. Dobbs should drive more women and young people to vote this time and there is at least some date in the voting registration and early voting numbers that suggest this is happening. But you never want to be relying on unreliable voters and that is where the Democrats find themselves in 2022.

4. Most of the recent polling has been done by Republican aligned pollsters. The Real Clear Politics average in particular includes a lot more Republican friendly pollsters than it should. Right now the generic hose averages for forecasters are further apart than they should be with just a week to go. 

Real Clear Politics: Republican +2.9.

FiveThrityEight.com: Republican +0.8

Split Ticket*: Democratic +0.4.

*Split Ticket does not include partisan polls.

The Polling Dilemma.

I am not a wonk. This is a hobby, at best. So let me just summarize the polling issue as I understand it, mostly from reading Tweets from actual wonks and (semi) professional election nerds. 

The non-partisan pollsters have the race as a dead heat and the Republican friendly pollsters have them winning by a few points. The explanation for this is that Republican pollsters believe their people are under-responding, so they include more of them in their poll.

The might be right. They also might be undercounting the young people and women who are motivated by Dobbs.  This morning Cygnal put out  a generic ballot poll out with an electorate that was less two percent Black.  Blacks usually make up about 12 percent of the voting. But even in this poll, the Republicans only lead by three points. 

It's also worth mentioning that the prediction markets are pretty favorable to Republican candidates in the senate. They seem to think a sweep of the major races is likely. I don't see that happening mostly because I think Kelly will win AZ and NV will be very close. But I've always referenced predictions markets in my forecasts and I want to acknowledge that I am diverging from them a bit this time out.

On to the Non-Predictions.

I am terming all of these as Non-Predictions because I have a low degree of confidence in everything I am about to write. But you can't play the election social media game without at least going on the record. So here is my best guess.

One theme that we may see is Dems doing better in traditional Red states but losing ground in blue states. I think Red State Dems will be more motivated by Dobbs than complacent ones in Illinois or New York. And if all of those ads about crime and inflation really do scare people, this could be a long night for the Democrats.  But I think something more modest is more likely.

1. The House Will Go Republican But By a Small Majority.

In a dead-even national vote, the Republicans probably take the House. They only need to flip four seats. I expect them to clear that bar. They'll probably gain between 12 and 25 seats. Just to keep in fun, I'll say they wind up picking up 16 seats nets. That makes the official prediction: GOP 230, DEM 205.

2. The Senate Will Be Determined By a Georgia Run-off. Again.

The current senate is 50 Dems and 50 Republican. Vice-President Harris provides the tie-breaker for the Dems. Control of this chamber probably comes down to four elections-PA, GA, AZ and NV. The Dems need to win three of them to keep the Senate.

I think the Dems win Arizona. Mark Kelly is just too good a guy, too centrist and likeable to lose to a nutter. But this is Arizona so it will probably be close. Let's call it 51-47.

Nevada could go either way but I think CCM is more likely to pull it out than not. Let's call it 50-49.

Pennsylvania will also be close but after the debate I am favoring Dr. Oz. This election should have been put away weeks ago and I think John Fetterman will go down in infamy if he doesn't win. He had plenty of time to announce that he needed to step aside for medical reasons. 

The limited polling information we have seen since the debate is less discouraging than I would have expected. But I still believe Oz will get over the finish line. Let's call that 49.9 to 49.2.

Georgia should not be competitive. Herschel Walker is a serial liar and he is to be blunt, quite stupid. He is unqualified by every meaning of that word. But the GOP is sticking with him the way they always do. I think he'll take first place on election day but I don't think he will quite get to 50 percent. So this will head to a run-off. Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48 on election night.

If my other predictions are right, that runoff will determine who controls the senate. But we should at least mention the chance of upsets elsewhere.

The GOP thinks they have a shot in NH, CO and even WA. They won't win any of those races but NH could be a close final tally.

The Dems have three states where an upset seems possible-NC, WI and OH.  NC is slowly trending blue but it doesn't seem to be in the hurry that VA was to get there. WI is an evenly divided state but I think Ron Johnson's incumbency will get him over the line. His ads attacking Barnes for Defund the Police stuff have also been pretty effective. 

Ohio is probably the wildest card to me. It's redder than any of the states we've mentioned so far. But the Dems nominated their best possible candidate and the Republicans nominated somebody terrible. I think this is about a three point race. But I'll call it Vance 51, Ryan 47. 

I will mention one other race here. Iowa. Chuck Grassley is too old to be a senator. He'll be 94 when his next term ends. I think some people will vote for Admiral Franken on that basis alone. But I don't think it will be enough to win. Grassley 53, Franken 47. 

So my bottom line for election night is GOP 50, Dems 49....with one run-off to determine control of the chamber.  

3. Governor Races-Look for the Splits.

I don't expect any major upsets here. Sorry folks but Kathy Hochul is not losing to Lee Zeldin. Get that thought out of your head head. Oregon and Oklahoma are both close, interesting races because the political alignments are unconventional. Oregon has essentially 2 Democrats on the ballot running against Nike's hand-picked Republican opponent. The Democratic Party of Oklahoma also did something smart in nominating a former Republican to run against an unpopular incumbent.

But the results in most governor races will be predictable. The really interesting part will be the margin of victory by comparison to the senate races in the same state.  If candidate quality matters, we're going to see some 10-15 point spreads between these races on election night.  I think the PA-Gov nominee will outperform John Fetterman by a lot. I think the same will happen for the Republican Governors of Ohio and Georgia.  

The most depressing race will be Arizona. The Democrat (Katie Hobbs) declined to debate the Republican nominee (Kari Lake) because Lake is "too extreme." And extreme she is. But a refusal to debate just looks week. Lake is a former newscaster and very polished on TV. Hobbs should have debate her early-late September of the first week of October, taken the polling hit and then beat up Lake for the last month for being a crazy person. Instead, Lake is probably going to win by 3 or 4 points and she will instantly become a serious contender to be Trump's running mate in 2024.  (She is, by the way, the only woman that I think Trump would consider on his ticket.)

Just to go on the record-the Dems will add MA, MD and OK. Republicans will probably add Kansas and Nevada. But again, none of these are "predictions." Because nobody knows what is happening a week from tonight. 

IV. Summary.

So there you have it. The House GOP gains sixteen. The Senate remains where it is for now and the Democrats net one governor's mansion. But the biggest takeaway from this is that I have very low confidence in almost everything I have written. Maybe Dobbs will save the Democrats. Maybe those ads about crime and inflation will scare people into turning over the keys to the Republicans. 

What's really sad though is that the events of the last election and its aftermath will have so little impact on anything. Just two years ago the losing candidate refused to conceded and attempted to overturn the result by whipping his base into violence. And the impact on the average voter is negligible. The Republican Party remains viable. It will likely control at least one chamber of congress after this election. It might control both. 

And their only agenda if they do is to cause governmental chaos. So that they can nominate that same sore loser to put all though the same nightmare again.

Updated Ranking of Best Pictures Winners

Back in January I ranked all 93 Best Picture winners. At least, I thought I did. (It turns out that I missed "The Sting.")  

As of an hour ago, we have a 94th Best Picture winner to consider. So I'm sliding that one into my list and adding The Sting too, for good measure. I guess I will do this every year.

In case you've already read the old list to save you a little time, The Sting is at #38 and CODA is at #72.

See below:

 Tier One: The Unassailable.

These are the movies that stand out to me not just for their quality but for some amount of personal resonance. 

1. The Godfather (1972)  50 years on, it is still the gold standard for cinematic story telling. 

2. The Godfather Part 2 (1974) There is a case for ranking 2 higher than 1. The scope is more ambitious and John Cazale's performance is the best in the history of cinema. But beat for beat, Part One is just too solid. 

3. Casablanca (1943) Pour out a little for Citizen Kane, which belongs up here with the Big Boys but lost to  "How Green Was My Walley."

4. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)  If you take anything from scrolling through this humble blog post, make it that you need to see this movie. You will not think about America in the aftermath of World War 2 the same way ever again.

5. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)   

6. Marty (1955)  A joy to watch. As light and life-affirming as anything on this list. 

7. Unforgiven (1992) 

8. Moonlight (2016)  Roger Ebert famously said that the best movies are machines that generate empathy.  The life of this movie's main character could not be more different than mine, but I felt every beat of his journey. 

9. Schindler's List (1993)  

10. A Man for All Seasons (1966) As history, this movie is bunk. But as drama, it will make you root for Saint Thomas Moore, even if you know all the terrible things he did in real life.

11. The Hurt Locker (2009)  Still the best examination of the wars we chose to fight in this century and how little the people back home bothered to think about them.

12. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957) Already we have four movies about WW2 on this list. 

13. The Last Emperor (1987)  An underrated masterpiece. 

14. Rain Man (1988) Rain Man Focus Group

15.Annie Hall (1977)  Crimes and Misdemeanors is Woody's best film. Take the Money and Run might be his funniest and Midnight in Paris is probably his most entertaining. But Annie Hall is the template for everything else he did. 

16. One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)

17. No Country for Old Men (2007)

Tier Two: The Other Classics.

18. The King's Speech (2010)  The speech itself gets me every time.

19. The French Connection (1971)

20. Wings (1928)  Amazing achievement in film making. And a good story too. 

21. The Apartment (1960)

22. Patton (1970)

23. The Artist (2011)

24. 12 Years a Slave (2012)

25. Terms of Endearment (1983)

26. Birdman (2013)

27. In the Heat of the Night (1967)

28. Driving Miss Daisy (1989)

29. Chariots of Fire (1981)

30. Dances with Wolves (1990)

31. Argo (2012)

32. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930) 

33. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)

Tier Three: The Very, Very Good.

These movies are not, in the main, universally loved. Some are popcorn movies unfairly maligned for not being serious enough to deserve the Oscar. Others are overly serious movies about war. and tragedy. But they are all well made if you take them as they were intended.

34. It Happened One Night (1934) 

35. On the Waterfront (1954)

36. How Green Was My Valley (1941)

37. Rocky (1976)

38. The Sting (1973)

39. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

40. Forrest Gump (1994)

41. The Shape of Water (2017)

42. The Deer Hunter (1978)  The scenes in Vietnam are salacious and dumb. But the first half of the movie is great. I would have loved to see an edit of the movie that was just set on the wedding day.

43. Ordinary People (1980)

44. Amadeus (1984)

45. Braveheart (1995) and Titanic (1997)

This is my only tie. Braveheart and Titanic belong together on this list. They are both entertaining, both are overly long and each was made to resonate with one gender more than the other. But they both work, despite being riddled with on dimensional characters and cliches.

47. Nomadland (2020)

48. Chicago (2003)

49. Shakespeare in Love (1998)

Tier Four: The Good.

These are fine. But I don't need to watch them more than once.

50. Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)

51. The Gentleman's Agreement (1947)

52. The Lost Weekend (1945)

53. The English Patient (1996)

54. West Side Story (1961)

55. Midnight Cowboy (1969)

56. Parasite (2019)  This movie is enjoyable but let's be honest, it is a bit over rated.

57. Gandhi (1982)

58.  Around the World in 80 Days (1956)

Tier Five: Worthy But Flawed.

59. Green Book (2017)   This is the only recent winner that I had not seen before the awards ceremony. The field of nominees was weak that year. Black Panther was the popular favorite but I'm not shocked that the academy avoided giving its biggest prize to a Marvel movie. Roma was expected to win but did not for reasons that remain unclear.  There's a lot of tropes and it feels for stretches like a made for TV movie but the acting performances make it watchable.  

60. Mrs. Miniver (1942)

61. The Life of Emile Zola (1937)

62. The Mutiny on the Bounty (1935) 

63. All About Eve (1950)  Some people absolutely love this movie. I was bored at times but on a second watch, it was much better than I remembered.

64. A Beautiful Mind (2001)

65. Platoon (1986)

66. The Departed (2006) This movie being the one that finally got Martin Scorsese his Oscar is a bit like how Chuck Berry's only number one single is "My Ding-a-ling."

67. Grand Hotel (1932) 

Tier Six: Gone With the Wind.

68. Gone with the Wind (1939) This movie deserves its own consideration because it is very hard to judge in 2022.  I see all of its merits. The love story is great, if you overlook the scene of marital rape. And the heroine is easy to root for, if she wasn't trying to perpetuate her right to own human beings.

But I do not think this movie should be banished from the culture. You have to see this movie to understand American cinema and more importantly to appreciate the insane attitude this country had about the Civil War when most of the people who remembered it had died off.  

But this movie is not just sympathetic to the South or southerners. It is wistful for a lost way of life. That way of live is the right of rich white people to own black people and make them work their land without remuneration.  I can't pretend that this does not affect my reaction to the movie. 

Tier Seven: The Not Quite-Good.

69.  From Here to Eternity (1953)

70. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)

71. Ben-Hur (1959)

72.  CODA (2021)  CODA is a nice movie. It has several very good acting performances. If I had an 11 to 15 year old child, I would want them to watch this movie. Its message and heart are in the the right place.  But it was born at the top of the cliché tree and it hits every branch on the way do

73. Cimarron (1931) 

74. American Beauty (1999)

75. Rebecca (1940) 

76. Spotlight (2015)

77. An American in Paris (1951)

78. Going My Way (1944)

79. The Great Ziegfeld (1936)  

80. The Sound of Music (1965)  Did I mention that I don't like musicals?  

81. All the King's Men (1949)

82. Oliver! (1968)

83. Cavalcade (1933) 

84. Tom Jones (1963)

85. Million Dollar Baby (2004)

86. The Broadway Melody of 1929 

Tier Eight: The Bad.

87. You Can't Take it With You (1938) 

88. Gladiator (2000)

89. Gigi (1958) 

90. My Fair Lady (1964) Audrey Hepburn is one of the most beautiful women who ever lived. But she was a lousy actress. They were smart enough to dub her singing parts but couldn't do that for her dialog, so here we are. 

91. Crash (2005)  If you have seen this movie, you're probably wondering why this movie is not DFL.  Read on, friends!

92. Out of Africa (1985) I fell asleep so many times during this movie that I forced myself to watch it a second time the next day, a decision I truly regret.

93. Hamlet (1948) Laurence Olivier must have been a marvel on the stage but in 1948 he had not yet learned to stop projecting his voice for the people in the last row of the 3rd balcony.

94. The Greatest Show on Earth (1952) Irony. 

Confess: A Review of Rob Halford's Memoir

 This book explores the predictable themes of sex, drugs, and rock & roll without being overly salacious, tedious, or catty. It is an honest telling of a life in a specific genre of music while living a love in a boozy closet and then of joyous sobriety.

I was relieved to see what this book is not. It is not a tell-all. Halford settles no scores and seeks no unjust credit for his success. He writes about his bandmates in respectful terms. He is obviously comfortable with his own talent and he is generous with praise of the other members of Judas Priest.  (I wish Keith Richards had taken this direction when he wrote his memoir.)

If there is one weakness of this book, it is that he writes about the other members of Priest in a style that is respectful but bland. They are not characters in this book and he clearly wants to avoid making any of them look bad, even when writing about some of the lineup changes and scandals that the band faced from time to time.

Let me explain that Judas Priest was my favorite band from the age of 12 to 14 or 15. They were my second concert. Over the years I grew away from Heavy Metal for the most part but the music you love when you are that age never really leaves you. Some of their songs hold up well and I've spent a fair amount of time listening to them even as an adult. But before this book I had not really read much about them since I stopped reading Hit Parader in 1989 other than a length GQ article from 1998 about the band after Rob had left it.

I. The Sex Parts.
As I read this book, it occurred to me that I had never read a memoir of a gay man before. I knew Rob was gay long before he came out publicly. People used to joke about it when I was a big Priest fan. That teasing was the only part that bothered me. I sort of assumed that the rest of the band knew all along too (they probably did) and that off-stage he could express himself freely. (He could not.)

Reading about his life in the closet was truly disturbing. He was 30 years old before he had a real relationship with a man. He writes about truck stops and glory holes, but not to be lurid or titillate the reader. This is what he had to resort to, even as a man of means. Even as someone living the ultimate rock and roll lifestyle. He eventually has some less than ideal relationships with men but spends most of his 30s pursing straight men who are not capable of loving him and one gets the sense that he probably didn't think he was worthy of being loved.

Rob is at pains not to blame the rest of the band for this fact but I have to say it disappointed me that they were also quiet about the subject. He attributes this to their working class north English stoicism but it's really hard to fathom. Eventually, of course he comes out, become a gay icon and meets the man of his dreams. His fans do not leave him when he does any of this, and that is the connective positivity that holds this story together.

II. The Drug Bits.
I don't usually like to read about the struggles of recovering addicts. The arc is predictable and the punchline is usually sanctimonious. But Rob describes his issues (primarily with alcohol, later with cocaine) in a way that is devoid of romance or machismo. This is the life of a sad alcoholic, not a party king. And the alcohol only makes the loneliness of the closet worse. Until he stops, rather suddenly. Once he does, he gets reengaged with is music.

III. The Metal of it All.
One really charming aspect of this book is how much Rob remains committed to the very specific field of heavy metal. He really is a zealot for it and he is unabashedly proudest of the music that is loudest and most intense. That is where I part way with him, albeit slightly.

You know when people ask you what celebrity would you most want to meet? I have at times said that mine is Rob Halford. And if I ever did meet him, it would be to ask him about one specific song, Dessert Plains.

Dessert Plains came out in 1981 and is on my favorite Judas Priest album, Point of Entry (1981). What I like about Dessert Plains is that it was the one song that even as a straight adolescent male, I just knew was written by a man singing about another man. I've pored over the lyrics and there's not an adjective or pronoun to give this away. It just feels like a song about a man. I've often wanted to tell Mr. Halford that this song made me understand that such feelings were as real to him as anything I could have felt for a girl or (later) a woman. It's an important song to my development for that exact reason.

Point of Entry is slightly softer than the bands that came just before and after it. Most Priest fans would probably say their favorite album was British Steel (1980) or Screaming for Vengenace (1982). But Point of Entry for me is the most delicate writing the band ever did. It's is poppy without being overly commercial and it is metal without the need to be faster than the other stuff on the market. Not every song works, but I sometimes day dream about a contemporary artist doing a song-for-song cover version of the album. Maybe this is the project that Lady Gaga and Rob can work on when they finally get together.

But Rob is not a big fan of Point of Entry. He thinks the band missed the mark and he dismisses Dessert Plains as one of the songs that is "just okay." Fair enough, Rob. But I do want you know that even when you missed the mark, you produced some really cool art. And I am glad that you are still here to be proud of all of it.