New South Hampshire Carolina

 I have not been posting about the primaries as much this year as the last few cycles for the very sensible reason that we know who both nominees will be.  But I don't want to ignore the news all together, so here is my look back at NH and look forward to SC.

New Hampshire: I Nailed It.

Here are my predictions for the Republican primary with the actual results in parenthesis.

Donald Trump: 54.1%   (54.3%)

Nikki Haley       43.9%   (43.2%)

Binkley                0.5%   (0.1%)

Others:                 1.5%  (2.0%)

I should have lumped Binkley in with "Others", but I wanted to give the guy a fair shot since he was the only declared candidate still in the races of any stature at all. 

Just want to point out that my slight error was to overestimate Nikki Haley's performance. But boy am I less guilty of that than any mainstream pundit.

Here are my predictions for the Democratic primary with the actual results in parenthesis:

Joe Biden: 64.3%  (63.9%)

Dean Phillips: 16.7%  (19.6%)

Marianne Williamson: 8.2%  (4%)

Others: 10% (12.5%)

The key number here was Biden. He was a write-in candidate and those are hard to predict. My only slight mistake was underrating Dean slightly and overrating Marianne Williamson. (I can't help it. She's wonderful, isn't she? So sad that her grift is now dead.)

Giving myself an A on this one. Close to an A+ on Republican and somewhere between A and A- on the Democratic side.  

South Carolina: Not Much Suspense.

South Carolina has been pivotal in the last 3 contested Democratic races. Obama winning in 2008, Bernie losing in 2016 and Biden crushing all of hos opponents in 2016 can largely explain the last four Democratic presidential contests.

The stakes are lower today. But Biden could use a big number. This is his first time on the ballot in this cycle and a crushing might push Dean Phillips back to the back benches of Congress where he belongs for the next 11 months.

So here's the official pick:

Biden 83%

Phillips 13%

Others: 4%

Williamson will get some votes and there will be write-ins. But nothing to move the needle.  Most  likely, Biden will win all 29 delegates.

About November.

Still holding off on my first official general election forecast. But I feel good about things. There has been a stream of good economic news. And it looks like we might just get a substantial ceasefire in Gaza soon.

The Republicans don't have a real contest for the next three weeks. But Haley's polling in SC has cratered. At some point soon she might admit that it's better to withdraw than to lose her home state by 25 or 30 points.

The public is slowly waking up to the reality of a Trump-Biden rematch. Polling for now is still all over the place. But I think that will change over the next six weeks or so. 

My confidence of a Biden win this November is up to about 60%. Details to follow. 

New Hampshire-What Will We Learn?

 Iowa: What Did We Learn?

Very little. The result pretty much matched the polls. But a quick moment of self-reflection. Here are my predicted vote percentages for Iowa with the actual result in ( ). 

      Trump 53% (51%)

      Haley 21% (19%

      DeSantis 20% (21%)

      Ramaswamy: 5% (7.7%)

      Hutchinson: 1% (0.2%)

Pretty close, but I did have Haley in second and Ron in second. That didn't work out.  Give myself a B+.

New Hampshire: What to Expect.

We're about 14 minutes away from the results in Dixville Notch and that other stupid town up north. But that won't tell us much.

Since Iowa, The third, fourth and sixth place finishers have all dropped out. (Shout out Ryan Binkley who finished ahead of Asa Hutchinson in Iowa and then stayed on to fight in New Hampshire! Well done, weird nobody.)

DeSantis and Ramaswamy have both endorsed Trump. The polls this week suggest that most of their votes are going to go with Trump. He is a very heavy favorite to win and very well might run up a big margin.

But New Hampshire does have a contrarian streak. They don't like to vote for the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. And Trump had a few hiccups on the trail this week, so maybe he won't quite crush it.  There also could be some Democrats voting in the Republican race to just drag it out a little longer.

Here's my official prediction:

Donald Trump: 54.1%

Nikki Haley       43.9%

Binkley                0.5%

Others:                 1.5%  (Strays for Christie, DeSantis, etc.)

What Does Haley Need?

To even dream about being the nominee, she needs a win. She's not getting that. But if she can get 45% of the vote, than she might be tempted to hang in there a little longer and see if the donor class keeps her afloat just in case DJT strokes out in the next month.

If she loses by more than 15, she probably drops out tomorrow night or Wednesday morning. The humiliation of losing South Carolina to Trump would be too much to bare. (And the donor class won't waste their money on her.

What About the Dems?

There is a Democratic Primary tomorrow too but it won't be sending any delegates to Chicago and Joe Biden isn't on the ballot.

That said, there's like 25 other people in the ballot and no small number of Granite Staters are pissed off that the Democratic party took away their monopoly on being the first in the nation primary. So this number could be interesting.

Biden will win and he should do so with an outright majority. If he doesn't, and Nikki Haley drops out, the media will try to make the Democratic race feel competitive. (It isn't.)

But once again in the breach, here I go:

Joe Biden: 64.3%

Dean Phillips: 16.7%

Marianne Williamson: 8.2%

The other weirdoes and spoiled ballots will be like 10%.

Ooooh, Dixville Notch and Hart's Crotch are going to be announcing in a minute.....

2024 Begins (Iowa Caucuses)

 Tonight some modest number of Iowans will brave sub zero temperatures and lumber their way to fire houses and gymnasiums to begin the formal process of picking the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. His name is Donald Trump.

But four other bozos are trying to upset him. So let's play along. Here is my official prediction for tonight:

      Trump 53%

      Haley 21%

      DeSantis 20%

      Ramaswamy: 5%

      Hutchinson: 1%.

So there will be something to watch for tonight-the battle for second place. If DeSantis doesn't win second, he will have to give some consideration to dropping out. But I suspect he will stay around for awhile. Hutchinson will probably drop out tonight. Ramaswamy has nothing better to do with his time.

So what happens next?

New Hampshire, of course. There have been some polls that showed NH being more competitive than Iowa. If you squint, you can convince yourself that Nikki Haley will make it close. Maybe only lose by ten points. New Hampshire does have a history of rejecting Iowa's winner. And there will be some number of Democrats who choose to vote for her since the Democratic primary is not sanctioned by the party and Joe Biden isn't even on the ballot there.

 But Trump's going to win. Probably by closer to 20 points than to ten.

Then the race turns to South Carolina. Nikki MUST win there to even pretend she can beat Trump. If she loses her home state, (and I expect she will), then she'll be out of the race promptly.

In a normal year, there wouldn't be any candidates left to run against Trump. But, this year, there's this other thing.

This Other Thing.

Donald Trump is facing four separate criminal trials: one in New York that no one cares about, one in Florida that the judge is set on delaying as much as possible, one in Georgia that is complicated by the number of co-defendants and one in Washington DC that is set to being on March 4th.

I think there's a chance that one or more Republicans will stay in the race even after getting drubbed in the early primaries because they will know that chaos is likely to come and they will want to grab as many delegates as possible before that happens.

Trump is desperate to get this trial delayed. And he might succeed. But I think it will go, if not on March 4th than sometime before May. If that trial goes, he is very likely to be convicted of at least one felony. That would normally get him him thrown of the Republican ticket but the Republican party in 2024 is anything but normal. Trump will appeal his conviction and cry foul, as he always does when he faces a setback. By April 2nd, more than 3/4 of the delegates will have been awarded but a conviction would leave at least some doubt on the identity of the nominee. 

One or the other-an acquittal or a persistent march through to the required delegate number, Donald Trump will be the nominee. He will not get out of the race gracefully. He controls the party apparatus thoroughly enough he will ward off any legal or technical challenges.

I suspect that no later than June 1st, the world will realize that Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for President on Election Day, 2024. 

Meanwhile....

Meanwhile Joe Biden will safely, surely move his way through the primaries. Dean Phillips might do some numbers in New Hampshire, since Biden's name isn't on the ballot. But that won't move the needle and Joe Biden will vacuum up most of the delegates elsewhere. By May, the electorate will finally accept what has been obvious to anyone since November of 2020-Joe Biden will be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024.

He certainly deserves to be. He has been a great president, both domestically and on foreign policy. He got important and productive legislation passed at home. And he has stood for America's commitment to Democracy and our alliances abroad. It's been over two years since an American service member lost their life in foreign combat. But NATO is stronger than ever. Russia looks week and despite some caterwauling from the Tiktokigentsia, he made the right decision to support Israel's right to defend itself against the brutality unleashed by Hamas on October 7th.

And oh yeah, a year ago most economists thought we would be in a recession by now. We ain't. In fact, the economy is growing great, job growth has been incredible and real wages are up. If this is news to you, you need better news sources. Because the media narrative has been quite different and the zeitgeist of the electorate seems to be "Economy Good when Gas Prices Low" which is exceptionally stupid.

The General.

Biden's success does not assure him of an easy election. His age is a negative. The public is weary of the situations in Ukraine and Israel. Many voters are not sophisticated enough to understand that Biden's policies have been principled and productive. They just want the world to be safe and normal, as long as it doesn't cost them anything to achieve that.

But sometime this summer, or early fall, the American people will realize that they have only two choices for President. I expect that gradual realization to favor Joe Biden. Because the other choice is a raging doofus. For all the talk of Joe Biden's age, Donald Trump seems to be older, more frail and in generally bad health. He's also nuts. Like, really, really nuts. Talk to the Pepsi machine at the laundromat nuts.

That doesn't mean he can't win. In fact he has a plan to do just that. His job is to convince people that every problem in the world is Joe Biden's fault. His biggest assets are the migrants who are showing up at the border every day and being promptly bussed to cities that Trump wants to make look bad. Those cities are legitimately straining at the burden. I doubt that House Republicans will agree to any package of compromises that allow improvement in this situation. (To be clear, yes I believe the Republican party is intentionally setting out to let many thousands of poor people make their way to this country so they can be dumped out on the street and make Joe Biden look bad. If this works, the first people to suffer will be those very unfortunates who are currently being used as pawns in this game.)

This Shit Can Work.

Four Years Ago when I did my first post about that election, I declared the race a dead heat. I said Biden lead in 268 electoral votes and Trump in 260. My best guess was that Wisconsin would determine the winner. That was before COVID-19. By April I said that Biden was the modest favorite to win. 

That's about where I am right now. It's customary to say something about "if the election were held today." But the election is not being held today or a week from now. A large swathe of the electorate still thinks that a bunch of farmers in Iowa tonight and another bunch of Boston suburbanites will get together this month to hand them choice more palatable than Biden and Trump. But that will not happen.

Both parties are sticking with their choice from last time. Neither party thinks that is ideal, but both think it is better than the alternatives. For Democrats, they have to run on Biden's record. Not nominating him would make that suspect. And incumbency is powerful while competitive primaries are usually fatal for the incumbent party. For Republicans, the majority of their membership simply love Trump for what he represents a rich guy who is proud of his own ignorance. He also gives legitimacy to their prejudices and simplistic solutions.

This campaign will be ugly. Trump will try to make Americans afraid of immigrants and foreign allies and taxes and math. Biden will beat the drums of abortion rights, prosperity and the importance of remaining committed to democracy here and abroad.

Biden is vulnerable, as is every incumbent to world events. A terrorist attack, a disruption of shipping lanes or a huge setback in Ukraine would make him look weak and his foreign policy look like a failure.

I'll do my first official forecast after the first few primaries. But if I had to bet right now, Biden will win the popular vote by three or four points. I don't see him expanding the electoral map. Maine's 2nd congressional district and North Carolina are his only really plausible pickup opportunities. He very well could love Georgia and/or Arizona. Some think Nevada will go red, but I think Trump's negatives will keep that home. Let's say Biden 293, Trump 245. 

First Republican Debate Reaction

 This debate was silly from the start because the nominee did not participate. That said, in true Republican fashion, let's hand out some participation trophies.

1. Ron DeSantis. Grade: C+

Boring and uninspired. Everytime he mentions that he "deployed with the Navy Seals", I cringe. He was a JAG officer, not a platoon leader. 

2. Vivek Ramaswamy. Grade: F (on substance) B+ (for his audience)

Earlier today Vladimir Putin murdered ten people by shooting down a plane over his own territory. Tonight Vivek Ramaswamy doubled down on the idea of letting him keep part of Ukraine so that we can then convince him to become an American ally. He was rightly ganged up on by the other candidates for this moral cowardice. But he has a huge political advantage in this primary.   

He also picks up on a piece of the Fox News message that most politicians are afraid to acknowledge-the idea that America itself is in decline. That was part of what won Trump the 2016 nomination. It will also be what wins him the nomination in 2024. All that B roll of riots and trans people have instilled a fear that only Vivek seems to understand. He is a gross human being but in the cynical politics of the present Republican party, he connects with the rest of the gross human beings who comprise that base.

I was hoping tonight would be a disaster for him. But he played his part pretty well. I expect he will go up in the polls over the next few weeks. Of course, he will not be the nominee. But one thing to look for as we get closer to Iowa- we'll know we have a real primary when Trump starts to casually mention that Vivek is a Hindu. 

Most of the candidates on that stage did their best to talk like a Fox News host but Vivek effortlessly thought like a member of the Fox News audience. He really is as dumb as the people he panders too.

3. Mike Pence.  Grade: D

He was annoying and overly aggressive without saying anything of substance.

4. Nikki Haley. Grade: B.

She had some good moments and didn't embarrass herself.  She landed some punches on DeSantis and Vivek. 

5. Chris Christie. Grade: C

He felt pretty canned and, as always, obnoxious. He was the only person on the stage with a reputation for being a good debater and he under performed. 

6. Tim Scott. Grade: C+

He likes mentioning that he was raised by a single parent. But good lord is he forgetable.

7. Asa Hutchinson: Grade B-

He had a couple flashes of principle, which were admirable. But he's another boring off-the-rack Republican who will never gain traction in this field.

8. Doug Burgum: Grade C+

Probably the best potential president on the stage tonight, which does not say much. He was pretty mild and that's not going to move the needle. But good on him for playing hurt, Doug. 

Bottom Line: Once more, with feeling: Vivek Ramaswamy is a horrible human being. 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

Oscar Thoughts, 2022/2023

When the nominations came out, I had only seen one of the Best Picture nominee. I've now seen eight. So there is a lot of recency bias below. But I will speak up for one summer movie that was slighted.  The Batman should have gotten a Best Picture nomination, a directing nomination and at least one acting nomination. (For Zoe Kravitz.)

That said, here are the nominations:

Best Picture:

1. Triangle of Sadness. I knew nothing about this movie and I'm pretty sure I would have skipped it if someone described it for me, so I'm not going to say anything specific. But it is, by far, my favorite movie of the year.

2. Tar. Probably going to be remembered over time as the definitive character study of a narcissist.

3. The Banshees of Inisherin. I was asked if this movie is depressing and I said, "Not by Irish standards." (So yes. Quite depressing for the rest of Chistendom.)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Nothing new here, but it's well made and it's nice to know the Germans are still anti-war. (Need to keep an eye on that every few years.)

5. The Fablemans The story is a little tame but it's got the usual Spielberg signs of excellence. Oh and Seth Rogen is in it, for some reason.

6. Women Talking. Boring and non-sensical but hey, can't say they didn't warn us, right fellas? Just kidding. It's fine. I liked the cast. Has gaping plot hole that I guess we'll just call a conceit and move on.

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once. I know there are a lot of really smart people who insist that multiverses are possible and I have no reason to doubt that, but holy shit do they ruin literature. And the driving force behind the script seems to be, "If you think of it, we're keeping it in the movie." So once again, can't say they didnt warn us.

8. Elvis. I'll go full Ebert: I hated, hated, hated this movie. It is ahistoric, insulting to the intelligence, poorly  acted and probably the worst editing job I've ever seen. Ful disclosure: I only watched the first 45 minutes but I will never have the time to watch the rest of it.

*Did Not See*
9. Top Gun Maverick. Pilot propaganda from a Scientologist. No, thank you.

10. Avatar. I still have not forgiven Cameron for "unobtanium" and I think it's depressing that this sequel to a movie no one remembers made a billion dollars just by force of marketing will.

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Best Director:

1 & 2. Tar & Triangle of Sadness are both extremely worthy of winning this. I liked Triangle better as a movie but Todd Field has only directed three movies and they are all fantastic. I can't quibble with him winning if he does.

3. Fablemans. Speilberg has already won twice, so I doubt he will win.

4. Banshees is a good movie but not especially challenging to film, so I doubt this wins.

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once.  I know I'm an outlier.

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Best Actor.

1. Colin Firth This is the only nominated movie I saw, apart from 1/3 of that terrible Elvis impression that the kid is still doing in interviews. God I hope he doesn't win.

Prediction: Probably Brendan Fraser but Frith has a shot. Just rooting against Elvis. Like Chuck D trained me to do.

Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett and this is not close. But she's already won twice so she's probably a slight under dog.
2. Michelle Yeoh. I mean...she was good. But honestly, can you think of 3 adjectives to describe her character? I can't.
3. I didn't see To Leslie but she had to be better than....
4. Michelle Williams. She owned a monkey. And she looks great in a backlit see-thru dress. That is what I remember about her character. Oh and she had a crush on Seth Rogen, for some reason.
5. Ana de Armas. The most beautiful woman in the world and she did a goo d Marilyn impression but I had to give up on this movie for its pure dreariness.

Prediction: Yeoh

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Kerry Condon, Banshees.
2. Stephanie Hsu, Everything
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everthing

I didn't see the Whale or Black Panther 

Prediction: Condon

Best Supporting Actor;
1. Judd Hirsch, the Fabelmans. Not much screen time, but he brought the movie to life for those few minutes.
2. Barry Keoghan, Banshees.
3. Brendan Gleeson, Banshees
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything. I will be delighted if he won, and I think he was the best part of this movie but by now you've probably figured out I'm not a fan of it overall.

Apparently the 5th nomination went to Bryan Henry for a movie called "Causeway." Congrats to him.

Prediction: Short Round. People will love that story. The Banshees actors probably split votes and Hirsch's role is too small but at least he prevented Seth Rogen from probably getting a nomination, (for some reason). 

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Triangle of Sadness. So maybe some of the dialogue is a little too on the nose, but this movie is original with a capital O. And there is one scene in this movie that I will want to watch on YouTube ever three months for the rest of my life. 

2. Tar.

3. Banshees

4. Fablemans

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.  But maybe, just maybe Triangle. That would be awesome.

Best Adapted Screenplay;

1. Glass Onion. The finale was 10 minutes too long but I still think this is the best script nominated.

2. Women Talking. This is a talker and the dialogue is first rate but I have to reference the plot hole again, which was distracting.

 [Spoiler Warning for the plot hole: Where the hell are they going to go? How does it possibly end well for any of them?]

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

Didn't see Living or Top Gun.

Prediction: Women Talking.

A Look Back at the Midterms and a Peak, God Help Me, at 2024.

I. What Did We Learn?

I will get to my predictions report card, but first I want to discuss a few things the midterms taught as about about where the voting public is.

1. Abortion Access is Very Popular.

Any serious analysis of these midterms has to begin with the simple fact that a clear and convincing majority of American voters want abortion to be generally legal.  The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade was an electoral disaster for the Republicans. It probably determined control of the senate and might have made the difference in at least two governor's races. (Wisconsin & Arizona.)  The issues was on the ballot directly in at least five states and all five states voted in favor of keeping abortion legal. 

Voters in Vermont voted to create a constitutional right to reproductive autonomy by more than three to one. California voted for something similar by two one and Michigan voted for one by 14 points. But even in Kentucky and Montana anti-abortion measures were defeated by five points. 

The Republicans would be wise to let the Democrats codify Roe during the lame duck session. Murkowski and Collins could provide 2 votes if Manchin and Sinema are still hold outs. (Sinema, at least, would be wise to changer her mind on the that point anyway.)

But I don't think the Republicans are ready to cut ties to their hardcore base just yet.

2. State Political Parties Matter.

Democrats got amazing results in places like Michigan. They won close senate races in EVERY presidential battleground that had a contest this time. But they also got clobbered in Florida, lost some important house races in New York and (to a lesser extent) in California. 

Ron DeSantis was expected to be re-elected governor of Florida. But no one had him winning by almost 20 points. There are three things that helped DeSantis here:

1. The FL Democratic Party is just not very good. 

2. FL had a major hurricane in late summer and the response to it was pretty well organized and competent. Voters remember that.

3. Some independent and moderately conservative Republican voters probably wanted to build up DeSantis as an alternative to Donald Trump.  (Trump v. DeSantis will be the subject of an upcoming post.)

Other governors with good ground games from both parties were rewarded with wins by larger than expected margins. This happened for Democrats in Wisconsin and Michigan and for Republicans in Georgia and New Hampshire. Worth noting that Wisconsin, Georgia and New Hampshire favored people from different parties to the senate and the governor's mansion. (Michigan did not have a senate race this year.)

One governor who did struggle a bit is Kathy Hochul in New York. It's worth noting that this is her first time running for Governor. The NYS Democratic party had a bad night. Hochul can expect to be governor for as long as she wants, but she will have to grow into the job a little bit and not let the narrative around crime dominate the discussion next time. But her bigger task is to reform the state Democratic party with an emphasis on getting the Cuomo holdouts to get on board and let go of what their boss did to himself. This will not be as easy as it should be. Control of the House of Representative just might depend on it.

It appears that the California Democratic party also underperformed in some House races. Two there and 2 in New York could have kept the House blue, but that was always a long shot. 

3. Americans Like Democracy. 

The most heart-warming story of election night is that election deniers lost in every secretary of state election across the country. Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada were all in real peril of nominating someone who was very unlikely to certify the presidential election if a Democrat carried their state. The 2024 election will be far from perfect but it seems likely that every state will certify whatever candidate gets the most votes. And that makes all the difference.

4. Biden's Favorability Ratings are Deceptive.

The biggest reason that most pundits expected a Red Wave is that Joe Biden's job approval numbers have been underwater ever since he made the decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.

The 538 average has him at 42 approval, 53 disapproval. That number should have meant disaster for Democrats. But they held their own. 

I think some people disapprove of Joe Biden simply because he is old. They wish he was younger and snappier at press conferences. They suspect he has lost a step. But it is equally true that they like his policies. And I suspect in 2024 they will prefer him to the alternative, but more on that later. 

II. What Does This Mean for 2024?

A. The Primaries.

The day after the election, two story lines sunk their hooks into the Zeitgeist: Biden was going to be the Democratic nominee (correct) and DeSantis was going to beat Trump for the GOP nomination. (unlikely).

1. Yes, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee, assuming he is still alive and well. He is really fucking good at politics. The institutional party has figured this out. Look at the job he just did in keeping the Senate and nearly holding the house.  

He end our longest war. He rallied the world to the cause of Ukraine. And our economy is better off than most of the world. Some of these things may change in time to hurt him in the general election, but they will not prevent him from sailing to the nomination. 

2. Ron DeSantis is the biggest threat to Trump in the Republican primary but he is a clear underdog. 

DeSantis can probably convince a whole bunch of rich people that he is Trumpism without Trump. They will write him large checks because most of those guys (and all of their wives) find Trump to be personally ridiculous. They also now know that he's not terribly popular with swing voters and has terrible political instincts. (The GOP might have won GA and PA senate seats if Trump didn't big foot on behalf of terrible candidates there.)

3. Beating Trump in the 2024 Primary is a Booby Prize. Does anyone think that Trump will graciously accept losing the nomination to DeSantis?  If so, you have not been paying attention for the past seven years. He will either try to mount a desperate third party campaign or merely discourage his followers from supporting whoever "stole" the nomination from him. 

If Ron DeSantis wants to be president, he should wait for 2028. He can serve out the rest of his term, nominally support Trump from the sidelines and then enter the presidential race to be held two months after he turns 50. He can be a rich ex-two term president before he is 60. So the real question is, is Ron DeSantis smart enough to know this or too anxious for his own good?  He has been awfully quiet since the election That's probably best for him. He can let Trump suck up some oxygen for a few months and decide in the spring. 

I suspect he is getting a lot of calls from people telling him to announce or else they will declare for some other candidate. That will have some influence. But most of the field are light weights. He's not going to lose to Nikki Haley or Rick Scott. The only thing he has to worry about is a large field of 10 or 12 candidates forming and allowing Trump to get the nomination by winning pluralities in the key states. 

4. Keep an eye on Brian Kemp of Georgia. He beat Stacey Abrams by eight points and got more than 200,000 more votes than Herschel Walker did in the senate race. He has a much more credible story to tell as a post-Trump candidate than Ron DeSantis will.  If I'm a Republican primary voter in 2024, I might just decide that any Republican can win Florida but Kemp is the best chance of picking up Georgia. 

B. The General Election. 

A lot can change in 100 weeks, but I expect the election will probably be won or lost in just four states:  Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. Of course it's possible that either party could have a good or terrible campaign and the election will be a modest blowout. But we are still mostly working with a hybrid of the 2012 and 2016 maps.  

1. The Trump 2016 States. 

a. Florida, Iowa and Ohio have been pretty consistently Republican since then.  I think they are likely go Republican in a close 2024 election.

b. Pennsylvania and Michigan have been trending blue since then. I think they will probably go Democratic in a close 2024 election.

c. Wisconsin has been a swing state, including an incumbent Democratic governor and an incumbent Republican senator just a few weeks ago-both by close margins. It could go either way in a close 2024 election.

2. The Biden 2020 States.

Biden won back PA, MI & WI in 2020. He also hung on to NV and flipped Georgia and Arizona.

d. Georgia and Arizona are closely divided states. This year the Republican party squandered good opportunities in AZ-Gov, AZ-Ssen and GA-Sen by running terrible candidates. Brian Kemp trounced Stacy Adams in GA-Gov. And he will easily carry the state if he is the Republican nominee in 2024. But the state is moving leftward and will be competitive in 2024. (Kemp being on the ticket as vice-president would help the GOP too, but not by as much as him being at the top of the ticket.)  Arizona will be competitive in 2024 no matter who is on the respective tickets.

e. Nevada. 

Nevada elected a Republican governor this years but stayed blue in the senate. The Dems have won NV four straight times. But the margin in each of the last two presidential elections was 2.4%. This state will be competitive but because it only has six electoral votes, it is less likely to be decisive than the others.

3.  Electoral College Math. 

The picture at the top of this post is what I think the map will probably look like going into election night 2024. I give MI and PA to the Dems. FL, OH, IA & NC to the Republicans. The second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska are both in play.

 Our starting point is Democrats 259, Republicans 234. To win, the Democrats will need:

1. Georgia (16 electoral votes) 

~or~

2. Arizona (11 EV).

~or~

3. Wisconsin (10 EV) plus Nevada (6 EV)

~or~

4. Wisconsin (10 EV)  plus NV-2 and/or ME-2. 

That's what a close election looks like. Joe Biden needs to string together 11 EV from the 45 EV available in competitive races. Here's my first crack of the probability of winning for various likely match-ups.

1. Biden beats Trump 80%.

2. Biden beats DeSantis 65%.

3. Biden beats Kemp 52%.

4. Harris beats Trump 55%.

5. DeSantis beats Harris 55%.

6. Kemp beats Harris 75%.

III. Predictions Report Card.

Allow me to be a little wonky and to review the predictions I made just before the midterms. Accountability and all-that.

First Prediction: The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.

To be specific, I said the house would turn out 228R, 207D.  (Republicans gain 14 seats.)

It looks like the final result will be 222R, 213D. That's a gain of eight instead of 14. But I think I got the gist of it. 

I mostly avoided talking about specific house races, although this one will haunt me for a while: 

"Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite." Oh, how I wish I was wrong about that. But it looks like she will pull out this race by about 500 votes. And her opponent will be swimming in money next time around.

For the record, I do expect Kevin McCarthy to be the next Speaker. A few hardliners are talking him down but I don't think they can convince a majority to rally behind some other nutter.

GRADE: B+

Second Prediction: Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.

To be specific, I said the Senat would be 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.  

Here I did get specific on a few races. 

a. Arizona: Dems win. Kelly 51, Masters47. (Nailed it!)

b. Georgia goes to a runoff.  Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48. (Nearly nailed it. It wound up Warnock 49, Walker 48.)

c. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49, (Another virtual bullseye. The result was 49-48. I'll take it.)

d. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1. (Well I got the result right, but the margin was much larger than I expected, 51 to 46.)

e. Wisconsin   Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. (Actual result 50.5 to 49.5. So Barnes did about a point better than I expected.)

f.  Ohio.  Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6.  (Actual result 53-47. So Vance did a couple points better than I expected but I wasn't too far off. And Ryan did well enough to drag a couple House seats over the line for the Democrats there. They were only supposed to get three or four seats. They got five.)

g.  North Carolina.  Budd 51, Beasley 47. (Actual result: Nailed it! Bullseye! Huzzah!)

h. New Hampshire.  Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 (Actual result, 54 to 44. My biggest miss in margin. I should have known Bolduc was going to do poorly but I still think of NH as vaguely right wing. The Boston Exurbs may have finally fixed this.) 

So I was Eight for Eight in Results. My Democratic margins were off by 0, -2, -4, -1, +3, 0, -6. That's an average bias of 1.25 points in favor of the GOP.  (Can't accuse me of Homerism this year.)

I was also right in saying that IA, CO & WA would not be as close as some polls suggested.

GRADE: A.

Third Prediction: Governor Races: Treading Water, But Look at the Margin.

a. "The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes."

(Actual Result- 7 for 7 although the Hochul polls don't seem quite so funny now. She won by six and the Dems underperformed down ballot in NYS.)

b.  Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly. (Actual Results: Four out of five ain't bad but I have to own up to missing OK big.)

c. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.

(Actual Results: Happy to say I was only one for three here. Holding on to Kansas was great news, and it makes up for the loss in OK. Nevada was close)

GRADE: B.