Both candidates are old and familiar. They both skated to their respective nominations with ease. Both are unpopular with the median voter. And a significant segment of the general public still seem to think that some other candidate is going to walk through a spring-loaded door on a white horse and promise the world exactly whatever the hell that particular voter wants to hear and nothing else.
But that's not going to happen. There are two choices for president in 2024. And while they share all of the above-stated qualities, only one is a corrupt convicted criminal. Only one is an insufferable narcissist who intends to use the next four years to settle scores with his enemies, perceived and real.
The other candidate happens to be an extremely competent and accomplished president. The other candidate has overseen an incredible economic performance, drastic reduction in crime all while ending our longest, dumbest war and leading a coalition of democracies to defend Europe from the vile imperial ambitions of Putin's Russia.
I. WHERE THE RACE STANDS.
In the 538.com model, the race is a dead heat. As of this writing, the last 1,000 simulations had Biden winning 501 times and Trump winning 499 times. (If you assume the House of Representatives would vote for the Republican, as seems likely.)
The Economist model favors Trump. In their simulations, Trump wins 68 percent of the time and Biden wins 32 percent of the time. The betting markets also favor Trump, by a narrow margin on Predictit, more widely in some others.
I think the disparity between the models comes down to the weight given to Biden's approval numbers, which are bad. The polls do seem to give Trump a slight edge but I am reluctant to put too much weight on those just yet for the following reasons:
1. It's June. Polls are not predictions. They are snap shots in time.
2. A lot of people, bless their hearts, do not believe that Trump and Biden will be the nominees. I knew this was crazy a year ago but to believe it at this point is lunacy. Unless either one of them dies in the next four months, we are getting a rematch. But as recently as three days ago, you could spend 79 cents to get a $1 stake in Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee for President. Right now that number is up to 85. It should be in the mid-90s. No one is walking through that door to replace Joe Biden. If he does die, the nominee will be Kamala Harris. If you don't understand this, I can't take you seriously.
3. The polls are drastically overstating the appeal of third party candidates. The 538 model currently has Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting almost 8 percent of the vote. I doubt he will get half of that. But polls are not capturing the fact that he has been struggling to raise money and only has confirmed ballot access in six states.
For practical purposes, the election is currently tied. And I believe it will remain so well into October. I hate the phrase "if the election were held today" because, well, the election is not held in the middle of June. But if the election were held today, Donald Trump would probably win. The good news of course, is that today is June 22nd. A lot will happen in the next 19+ weeks and I remain confident that Joe Biden will win when it counts. But let's talk about how we get there.
A. WHY BIDEN SHOULD WIN.
1. He is a very good president. His legislative accomplishments speak for themselves. He took over during a terrible pandemic and the United States has lapped the world in recovery from it by every metric you can think of. Job
2. He is the incumbent and the economy is doing well. This should be the ball game but a lot of people tell pollsters that the economy is bad, which seems related only to the effects of inflation. For the record, inflation is lower here than in the rest of the wealthy world, and has been dropping like a rock. But you probably know that because you are smart enough to read this blog.
3. Abortion. Most Americans believe that abortion should not be criminalized. But the Trump appointees to the Supreme Court has give that option to states and nearly half of the states have chosen to make abortion illegal under all or most circumstances.
4. The defense of democracy and freedom. Joe Biden has accomplished some great things in foreign policy and he gets almost no credit for them with the average voter. He ended our longest, dumbest war. He stood with Ukraine when Putin invaded and he called out the savagery of Hamas for its attack on Israel. None of these choices have been easy and all have had some political downside. But it's 2024. Ukraine stands. NATO is stronger and when was the last time you heard someone say, "Boy, I wish we were still occupying Kabul."
4. His administration has been scandal-free. There have been no high-level resignations. No indictments. No real scandals other than garden variety Fox News fodder about really small ball stuff. (And the unfortunate crimes of Hunter Biden, the president's son. I happen to think that Hunter's travails make his father more sympathetic, but yeah it's a talking point that Trumpers will not tire of using.)
5. His opponent wants to end social security as we know it. Trump is smarter than the average Republican so he plays a little coy with, but I sure hope the Democrats put this issue to their advantage this year.
6. His opponent is a raving lunatic and a convicted criminal.
B. WHY TRUMP COULD WIN.
1. Biden is unpopular. His approval rating is right about 40%. That is low. I think a lot of this is attributable to his age, but a lot of it has to do with inflation and the fact that a good chunk of people have simply forgotten that he inherited a mess from Trump and had to devote a lot of energy to fixing that.
2. Immigration. I hate to say it, but Trump's enduring popularity has a lot to do with his insane opposition to immigrants other than beautiful women from Eastern Europe. The border situation has improved, but Americans really do not like what they see on the news about it. And they don't like seeing migrants panhandling on streets. The American people are afraid of immigrants and that fact is staggeringly sad. But for now, this is a political reality.
3. Americans love rich people. I am 50 years old. The economic history of this country for the past 50 years is a cycle of a Republican president getting elected, cutting taxes, running up enormous debt and leading us into recession. Then a Democrat gets elected, cuts the deficit spending, creates a lot of jobs and tries to restore some level of sane financial regulations. Then the voters decide they want a Republican to cut taxes, so we run back for the ditch.
But voters will still tell you that the Republican party is the party of fiscal responsibility. And the party that they trust to handle the economy. And they still believe that the government should be run like a business. It's a fundamental flaw of our civic literacy. And like the aversion to immigration, it's a political fact.
4. The Right Wing is more united than it was four years ago. In 2020 at least some hardcore right-wing thinkers were aware of Trump's awfulness enough to publicly support Joe Biden. But four years of modest regulatory enhancements and (even more modest) changes to the tax code are enough to put many of them back in the Trump column. Some of them now figure Conservatism can survive Trump and a second Trump term is their last shot at enacting some wild-ass reforms to our federal government.
There will always be some Never Trump Republicans. But even sane Republicans are refusing to endorse Joe Biden. They don't see an upside in it.
5. Cultural Nonsense.
I am putting this last because it's incredibly unimportant substantively but Trump and the Republicans do seem to have a slight advantage from energizing their voters about such weight issues as a trans woman playing softball in some Junior College or any crime committed by an undocumented immigrant. This stuff ranges from petty to tawdry but it certainly consumes the thoughts of a certain segment of bored old people.
II. The Forecast.
Joe Biden won the last election with 306 electoral votes. Because of reapportionment with the last census, the Biden states are now worth 304 votes. The Trump states are worth 234.
1. The Road to 270.
I am very confident that Biden will win 225 electoral votes.
To get to 270, his best path is to add: Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1) Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).
That's a too close for comfort 270 to 268 win. That would leave the nation's collective rectum tight enough to sharpen a pencil for two months.
So Biden wants to win somewhere else. The good news is he has several options. The bad news is he's not a clear favorite to win any of them.
2. The Cushion Opportunities
a. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes). This state has gone blue in four consecutive election cycles but the margin has dropped from 13 percent in 2008 to seven percent in 2012, to 2.4 percent in both 2016 and 2020. The Nevada Dems have pulled some close elections out in recent cycles but this year it's a true toss-up.
b. Georgia (16 votes). Trending blue for several cycles but still red in its DNA. This state can be won if black turnout is high.
c. Arizona (11 votes) A true purple state. Basically a coin toss. Biden is helped by abortion and by Kari Lake being on the ballot for the Republican senate race. But Trump is helped by the border situation and the higher than usual percentage of crazy retirees.
3. The One Pickup Opportunity.
North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) is the only state that Biden lost by less than 3 points in 2020. If we have a genuine rightward shift in this election, than Trump will hold it. But NC is getting more diverse and the GOP nominated an absolute whack job for governor, so I think Biden has a shot here.
4. The Trump States.
I just don't see another pickup opportunity. I think Trump has 219 electoral votes pretty well sewn up, and they probably think Arizona and Georgia will come home.
If I had to pick the next closest Red state, I would say Florida. Biden lost Florida by 3.3 points and the state Democratic party got trounced in the mid terms. But they have shown signs of life since then and DeSantis is less popular than he was 2 years ago. I still think Trump will win it but I think the margin will be two to four points.
It's trendy to say that 2024 is the year that Texas will vote to the left of Florida. I don't buy it. I think Texas goes for Trump by five to seven points. Everything to the right of that is a solid red wall. The best we can hope for is a closer than usual margin in Alaska.
So here is My Honest but Slightly Optimistic Prediction of the 2024 Presidential Election. All of the red is solid and a lot of the blue is pale. That's the state of the race. I don't think I will updating it again for a while. But we have a debate, a candidate sentencing and two conventions that will be here before you know it. So maybe things will change. (By the way, I think Trump will pick Douglas Burgum as his running mate. Or maybe he will go off the board and choose some retired general or state legislator from a swing state. But my money is on Burgum.)
One last word on the popular vote. I think it will be closer this time than last. I think Trump will do better in both New York and California than he did last time. That won't affect him but it could mean an extra seat or two in the House Republican caucus. I also think some young people will stay home this time, which is a real shame. If Trump wins, we will be living with Trumpism for a good long while.
The 538 model predicts the popular vote will be Biden 47.2, Trump 45.2, Kennedy 7.5.
I will go with Biden 49.8, Trump 46.1, Kennedy 3.5. Others 2.0%
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