The next presidential election is 96 weeks and two days. Democrats are currently favored to beat the incumbent president, who is very unpopular outside of his Republican base. Betting markets give the Democrats about a sixty percent chance of winning. There's just one tricky part left-they have to pick a candidate.
The Democratic field is going to be enormous. As many as 20 candidates will likely announce that their intention to run for the nomination. That process will probably start in a few weeks. I wanted to write a post about my feelings about the relative strengths and vulnerabilities of every plausible candidate. I will make some predictions. all with the understanding that 1,000 unexpected things will happen between now and the Iowa caucus.
Before dissecting the individual candidates, I will state my own biases.
THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.
This first section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the above-listed candidates. I will update this every so often as candidates either anounce their run or delcine to run. I have broken them into informal tiers, although the lines are a little fluid between them.
Six That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar.
2. Beto O'Rourke
3. Kamala Harris
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Chris Murphy
6. Kristin Gillibrand
Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
7. Steve Bullock
8. Joe Biden
9. Mitch Landrieu
10. Sherrod Brown
11. Michael Blomberg
12. Tim Ryan
13. John Hickenlooper
14. Jay Inslee
15. Eric Garcetti
16. Eric Holder
Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
17. Terry McAuliffe
18. Andrew Cuomo
19. Pete Buttigieg
20. Corey Booker
Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
21. Howard Schultz
22. Bernie Sanders
23. Tom Steyer
24. The Field of Dumb Celebrities
THE 2020 HORSE RACE
Prolouge: The Very Corrupt Elephant in the Room.
Donald Trump and almost every organization that he has ever been the head of are currently subject to a variety of criminal and civil investigations. I expect that at some point in 2019, Robert Mueller will conclude his investigation into Russian interference with the election. It's possible that Donald Trump will be impeached, but I would not bet on that outcome. It's also possible that Mueller's findings will be do damning that the Republican party decides they have to jettison him. They might succesfully talk him into not running for a second term if things are very bad but the man is nothing if not stubborn. I expect Donald Trump to be the 2020 Republican nominee because he is etremely shameless and very popular among Republican voters.
Prologue 2: The Very Conflicted Donkey in the Room.
I do not think Hillary will run again but you can't completely ignor her as a possible nominee, especially if none of the candidates below racks up a clear win in the primaries. It's easy to say that no one wants Hillary vs. Trump II, but Hillary and her family would love the opportunity. She just can't get it by running from the start. She needs a chaotic early primary season. I will reserve a 1% chance of her being the nominee.
The Top Tier Candidates.
Putting candidates into tiers is always a bit arbitrary but with a field of two dozen names, it helps to organize them in some way. My definition of a Top Tier candidate is someone with a plausible resume, significant national name recognition, and the ability to raise enough money to compete for the nomination. I think five people fit this standard. I will list them in the order of likelihood to be the nominee.
1. Bernie Sanders.
Chance of Being the Nominee: 18% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.
He's never going to win over the instituational party while continuing to refuse to become a member of that party. But he is the only candidate in the field who ran last time and the only candidate in the field who ever came reasonably close to becoming the nominee. He has lot of infrastructure and good-will, especially on the left-wing of the party. His biggest weaknesses are age (79 on election day 2020), his unwillingness to join the very organization that he seeks to lead and his poor showing with black voters in 2020. The grime that accumulates on anyone from being in the national game for a long time will hurt him this time around. A lot of party activists do not like him. Also worth noting that he doesn't know a god damn thing about foreign policy despite having already made a serious run at this office. That should be disqualifying, but his advantages are too significant to ignore. If he finds away to get some votes from black voters, he could win this nomination.
2. Joe Biden
Chance of Being the Nominee: 14% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 70%.
Joe Biden was born to be Vice-President of the United States. He knew how to work Capitol Hill and he knew how to keep the base energized. His experience was invaluable to Barack Obama and the party loves him for it. But he's almost as old as Bernie. (Seventy-seven on election day, 78 on Inauguration Day, if elected.) He also has a long record of votes that will not endear him to the activist base. He used to be called the Senator from MBNA, and was the prinicpal force behind some truly terrible changes to the bankruptcy code in 2005. That may seem like a small thing, but it is a fact that Elizabeth Warren will make sure everyone knows.
3. Kamala Harris
Chance of Being the Nominee: 13% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 65%.
She is the most viable black candidate. She's only been in the senate for two years, but prior to that she held a job bigger than most governships-Attorney General of California. The primary knock against her is that she was a prosecutor for a long time and that means she's got a less than stellar record on civil liberties and drug policy. But she ran a very strong campaign in 2016, beating another Democrat in all but four of California's 58 counties. As a senator, she has done pretty well in the spotlight of national TV appearances and the Kavanaugh hearings. Her legislative record is very light, but that might not be a negative for her. She has great appeal to a lot of Democrats, who would love nothing more than for Trump to be beaten by a woman of color. She has to come up with a message that resonates, but there's little reason to think she won't do that. And she has great access to fundraising from Californians.
4. Elizabeth Warren
Chance of Being the Nominee: 10% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.
This is a tough one for me. I like and admire Senator Warren very much. I think she would be a good president and she's right exactly where I want a president to be on the idealogical spectrum. She understands how our economy works better than any presidential candidate in recent memory. Most importantly, she can translate that knowledge into explanations of how the macro economy affects average pocketbooks.
But her political instincts are not great. Her first election in 2012 was closer than it should have been in a deep blue state with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. (Her recent re-election was a much stronger result, winning by 24.) And there's the dumbest issue of all, her Native American ancestry and the accusation that she has benefitted professionally by over stating them. I think the evidence for this is rather light. All of her employers deny that her negligible native ancestry played any part in their decision to hire her. But it's the perfect issue for Trump to run on. It's stupid and he does not care about the facts at hand. Worse yet, Senator Warren has taken the bait from him at every step of the way. A couple months ago she promoted the fact that DNA testing proved she does in fact have at least one Native American ancestory. That person died before she was ever born and tribal leaders were quick to dispel the idea that it has any bearing on her status. Donald Trump of course took the news to double down on his ridiculous racist slurs against her.
But the worst part of this stupid story is that it's precisely the kind of thing that people hate politicians to do. It feels phoney, even if here actions were sincere and ultimately backed up by actual science. Her biggest weakness is that no one will want the 2020 election to be about something this stupd. I can almost hear the chance of "But her 23andMe" now. That's dumb and it shouldn't rule her out as a candidate, but we have to face the fact that it will rub those WI/MI/PA voters the wrong way.
5. Corey Booker
Chance of Being the Nominee: 6% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 45%.
I will be brief. He is too corporate for the base and too phoney for the general. There are many people who love him deeply, but he is Wall Street's favorite senator for a good reason. It will be very easy for Trump to portray him as an effete liberal who oh by the way doesn't have a wife. That does not play well. I keep him in the top tier because he will raise gobs of money, command a lot of TV cameras and he has a natural advantage with black primary voters. He should survive the early rounds but I don't think he will win over the left wing of the party.
The Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps.
Americans tend to react to a president by choosing someone who is fundamentally different than his predecessor. In the Simpsons television universe, President Donald Trump is followed by President Lisa Simpson. I think Lisa is an apt analogy for what the Democrats need. We have a doozy of an asshole in the White House now. His rank stupidity oozes from every pore of his fatuous head, rivaled only by his intense lack of security. He is bereft of manners and decency. He is constantly desparate for affirmaton of his greatness. These traits had some quirky appeal when he was an upstart candidate. As President, they grate, even on people who should be his fans. The Democrats should remember that when choosing a nominee.
6. Beto O'Rourke.
Chance of Being the Nominee: 10% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 70%.
The Greek-American actor Andreas Voutsinas once told Mel Brooks, "Or you got it or you ain't." He was talking about talent. It's important. Beto has it. People like him because he's handsome and he's extremely comfortable in his own skin-the way you can only be comfotable if you know that you're people like you. That confidence creates the greatest gift of all for a politician, it eliminates the need to constatnly sound like you're full of shit.
Beto can take unpopular stances and make them sound principled in a way that even people who disagree with him respect him for it. That is why he made a race of it against Ted Cruz in Texas. He lost by two and a half points to an incumbent senator with a national fundraising machine while the Democratic candidate for governor got crushed by 13.
He will raise a lot of money. He will inspire people to knock on doors for him. He will suprise everyone with his grasp of policy at the early debates. He is the real deal.
Of course he has weaknesses. His resume is thin and he's never held a statewide office. He also has a voting record that is more centrist than the mood of the party. But if he racks up some early wins, it's going to become obvious that he can beat Donald Trump like a drum. That can get him the nomination.
7. Amy Klobuchar
Chance of Being the Nominee: 9% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 75%.
In a just world, Donald Trump gets his ask kicked on November 3, 2020 by a woman. Amy Klobuchar is better situated to deliver that ass kicking than anyone else on this list. She is respected and liked by her colleagues she has a long record of public service with no glaring problems for either the nomination or the general election. She also does well among rural voters in a midwestern state.
Just as Beto's youth and vigor are a natual conter-balance to Trump's decript anger, Senator Klobuchar is another kind of opposite to the incumbent. She is urbane, polite and level-headed. She speaks warmly and graciously. She is a mother and an accomplished lawyer. I imagine that her idea of a fun weekend while President would be to go to Camp David with her husband to play scrabble and maybe drink some wine while reading a book. Isn't it nice to think of a president doing that on her days off?
She too will have some challenges. She was a prosecutor and that might hurt her in the primaries. (Although it would surely help her in the general, when Trump will be running as the candidate of Law & Order, now matter how many of his close advisors from 2016 are in prison.) She also doesn't have an obvious connection to black or Latin voters. But she is smart and she is popular and a serious politician. I think her best campaign slogan would be "Amy Klobuchar, When I'm President You Will Go Entire Weeks Without Even Thinking About Me."
8. Sherrod Brown
Chance of Being the Nominee: 8% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 70%.
Sherrod Brown's appeal is simple-he is the labor candidate. He can win over the Obama/Trump voters by saying with a straight face that he is on the side of American workers, now and always. He is too protectionist for my liking, but that will be an asset when courting the endorsements of labor unions and it will deny Donald Trump one of hig primary talking points.
On the other hand, Protectionism is stupid and is already starting to hurt American farmers and workers. By 2020, this could be a real liability.
The real issue for and against Brown is his home state of Ohio. He is the only Democrat that would be favored to carry that state, which Trump won by nine points in 2016. Brown was just re-elected there by seven points, even as a Democrat was losing the open governor's mansion race by four. That's a sign of political strength. It also spells our an unfortuante dowside. If Brown is elected president, that new Republican governor of Ohio will get to pick his replacement. So a vote for Brown is also a vote for one fewer Dem in the senate.
The Third Tiers-Plausible But Flawed.
9. Michael Bloomberg
Chance of Being the Nominee: 3% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.
Michael Bloomberg is another version of the Anti-Trump model. He is an actual billionaire with 100% verifiable success in businesss. He is the real deal. He is also a genunie philanthropist and someone who put in the time holding a difficult and important elected position before running for president. He was, on balance, a good mayor. He believes in science and his focus on climate change is laudable.
His record makes it tough for him to get through the primary. He was, after all, elected mayor as a Republican. He stood by Bush-Cheney through the 2004 re-election. And he is the face of stop and frisk. I think that kills his chances, or should. The only reason I think he has any chance of winning is that he has unlimited money and will spend it, either to win or to advance the ideas and causes that matter most to him.
His general election prospects are very difficult to handicap. He is old, Jewish and presently unmarried. He's also very much associated with the cause of gun control. That will hurt him in some states that the Democrats need to win.
10. Kristin Gillibrand
Chance of Being the Nominee: 3% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.
She is smart and dilligent and wants the job. She is qualified and likeable. She's also done some good work on issues like sexual harassment that will give her a base to build from. But I don't see her as a breakout star.
11. Eric Holder
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.
He's never run for political office. That will hurt him more than you think. I also don't think he's particularly inspiring.
12. Andrew Cuomo
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 55%.
The base hats him but everytime we write him off, he crushes the challenger before him. Maybe he has a strategy to get through this field, but I don't see it happening.
13. Terry McCauliffe
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.
He knows how to raise money, so I don't want to write him off. He also did a pretty good job during his four years as governor of Virginia. But he is dripping in Clintonism and I don't think that will play well during either phase of the 2020 election. He just feels corrupt in ways that are likely to give Trump and Fox News plenty of fodder.
14. Chris Murphy
Chance of Being the Nominee: 1% Chances of Beating Trump if Nominated: 60%.
Perfectly plausible. Has a good knack for social media and might run to grow his stature but I don't think anyone is clamoring for him.
The 4th Tier-Long Shots.
These are all candidates who will at least explore the idea of running. Some of them might believe they can be the nominee but that will take a significant miracle. Mosts of them are probably doing a Mike Huckabee-running to get some exposure that they can parlay into better media gigs or maybe a cabinet position.
All of these candidates have less than a 1% chance of being the nominee, so I'll only list their chance of beating Trump in the general.
15. Eric Garcetti.
He would be a reasonably strong candidate (probably about 60 percent to win) but I don't see him wearing down all the people above him.
16. Mitch Landrieu
Another reasonable general election candidate. He has an interesting narrative and obvious talent but he probably won't clear the field. I'll say 65 percent chance of winning, if nominated.
16. Steve Bullock
He would be a strong candidate in the general but it would take a pretty significant collapse of the major candidates for him to even get a foot in the door of the early states.
17. John Hickenloper.
John Hickenloper was the governor of Colorado. He has a certain cache with the marijuana reform movement. But I don't think we have to worry about The Hickenloper Era becoming a thing. He's probably another 65 percent chance to win.
18. Jay Inslee
Inslee is a former governor of Washington and a boring, competent generic Dem. I give him the standard 60 percent chance of beating Trump.
19. Tim Ryan
Ryan is a representative from Northeast Ohio (Youngstown/Akron). Being from Ohio elevates him to 65 percent chance of winning, although unlike Brown he doesn't hold office state wide so it's hard to say for sure that he would run well in the southern part of the state, where Trump and Trumpism are quite popular.
20. Rep. John Delaney
I guess he wants to be on MSNBC more. Seems a bit lacking in gravitas so I'll downgrade him to 55 percent in the general.
Fifth Tier Novelty Candidates. None of these people can win or even be nominated. But they have money to burn and/or ambition to spare.
21. Howard Schultz He's willing to spend his Starbucks money on an ego boost. He will be exposed as a lightweight very early on.
22. Tom Steyer He'll probably make some noise by being a hard-liner on impeachment and making dumb emotional appeals. Fuck this guy.
23. Pete Buttigieg Mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana. Like everyone who spends time in South Bend, he has an inflated sense of his own self-worth.
24. Some Dumb Celebrity. There has to be a whole other list of 25 B and C list celebrities who are being told that they could run for president on a platfrom of being more successful entertainers than the incumbent. I hope none of them take the bait, but I have a sinking suspsicion that at least one of them will. After all, how hard can it be?
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