The Democratic Horse Race, Take Nine

Pour out a little malt liquor for Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Tim Ryan, Joe Sestak, Wayne Messam and Steve Bullock. Unfortunately, we also have to say hello to Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick.

 last updated my rankings of the Democratic Field on October 22nd. The news since then has been dominated by the impending impeachment of President Trump. But a lot has happened in the primary field too. In those eight weeks six candidates have dropped out. Perhaps more incredibly, two joined the field.  So the field of 19 has dwindled slightly to fifteen.

I. POLLING DATA (Based on the Real Clear Politics Average)

In the polls, Joe Biden has maintained a steady and significant lead. Warren has slipped from 2nd place to 3rd, losing about 1/3 of her support in the RCP average. Bernie's support has been steady enough to pass Warren, despite a small dip in her nominaal support. 

Only one of the six recent dropouts has significant polling support. Kamala Harris was in 5th place two months ago with 5.3 percent. That's is nearly identical to the 5.4 percent that Michael Bloomberg now.

II. The Horse Race (Take Eight).

In my last update I moved Elizabeth Warren up to the top spot. I regret that. She was on a good run but once she tried to tack back towards the center by hedging on her commitment to Medicare for All, that bubble burst.  She seems to be caught between the progressive wing which still prefers Bernie and the larger more centrist block of the party.  (Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Booker and Klobuchar currently have about 42 percent support. Sanders and Warren about 34 percent.)

Without further ado, here are the updated rankings:

A. The Top Tier (The Front Runners).

1. Joe Biden (up from 2)

He has always been the favorite and I should have stayed with him all the way through. But age is a real vulnerability here, so I can't call him the prohibitive favorite just yet.

2. Elzabeth Warren (Down from 1)

She is popular but her shtick seems to have worn thin early. And there is no sign of Bernie relenting or his followers breaking with him. 

In my last post, only Bernie and Warren were listed in the top tier. But I think the next two candidates have shown enough consistency to deserve being included with them.

3. Bernie Sanders 

His base is large and committed.  He will not quit a minute sooner than he has to, especially if a moderate is in front of him.  

4. Pete Buttigieg

He needs to win Iowa. That is a real possibility. But if he does, he probably fades in NH and I don't see him doing much in SC or NV.

B.  Tier Two (The Alternatives).

5.  Amy Klobuchar (Up from 7)

Hear me out. She has seen an uptick in her polling and outlasted a couple early contenders (Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris).  She also seems generally acceptable to most wings of the party.  If she can pull off a strong finish in Iowa, she will have to be considered a top tier contender.  And if things go haywire, she might be the compromise candidate that everyone can live with. 

6.  Mike Bloomberg (Unranked)

There are three things to remember about Mike Bloomberg-he's rich, he's ambitious and he's obsessed with data.  He would not be spending the obscene amounts of money that he is spending if he didn't think he could get a practical return on the spending. That return could come in the form of the nomination but I think it is more likely that he wants to steer the conversation away from genuinely left-wing ideas like Medicare for all and towards more pragmatic concerns like reducing carbon emissions and restoring American's alliances. 

I wish him well....to a point.  If I could wave a magic want and make him the president, the country would be in good hands. But he has singular political downsides ind the general election.  (He is Jewish. He is unmarried. He is synonmous with government overreach in both the nanny state and the police state realms.)  But I also believe that he will spend his money wisely and absorb delegates beyond what his vote percentage would rate.  If he has a few hundred delegates, then he might be able to push the nomination to someone like Klobuchar or Biden as needed.

Tier Three (Long Shots)

7.  Cory Booker (Down from 6)

 Not making the debate stage hurts. He also failed to make the Vermont ballot, which suggests that he is having to conserve his resources.  (Vermont doesn't have many delegates and Bernie will probably win most of them no matter what.)

8. Michael Bennet  (Up from 10)

He may have hurt his chances for becoming president by running.  He is exactly the kind of moderate, mains stream purple-state candidate that someone like Bloomberg might have pushed for. But getting crushed in New Hampshire will make him look unpopular.

9.  Julian Castro.  His polling is dreadful.  But he seems t0o stubborn to drop out. A for effort, I guess.

10. John Delanay.  (Up from 12)

Yep. He's still running. He also failed to make the VT ballot, which is inexcusable given the fact that he has a lot of money to spend and running for president has been his full-time job for over 2 years. 

11. Deval Patrick.  (Unranked)

I figure he thought that if he didn't at least try to run, he would always wonder "what if?"  Well it looks like he spared himself that one.

Tier Four Novelty Candidates.

12. Andrew Yang (13)

13. Tom Steyer (15))  Now the 2nd richest billionaire in the race.

14. Tulsi Gabbard

15. Marianne Williamson (17)

III. The Power Rankings, Take Nine.

These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.

1.  Amy Klobuchar
2.   Michael Bennet (Up from 4)  
3.  Pete Buttigieg 

4. Joe Biden (Up from 9)
5.  Elizabeth Warren (Down from 4)
6.  Julian Castro (Up from 8)
7. Cory Booker (Up from 10)
8. John Delaney (Down from 11)
9. Bernie Sanders (Up from 14)
10. Tom Steyer (Up from 17
11.  Deval Patrick (Unranked)

12.  Michael Bloomberg (Unranked) 

13 Andrew Yang  (Up from 16)

14.   Marianne Williamson (Up from 18)
15.   Tulsi Gabbard  (Up from 19)

5th Democratic Debate Grades

This debate felt very tired.  The stage is too big and the arguments they have are not new.  The whol event was of course overshadowed by the impeachment hearings. But, this is what we do here so let's get to it.



WINNERS

1. Pete Buttigieg  Tactical:  A-  Strategic A
Solid and poised, as always.

2. Cory Booker   Tactical:  A-   Strategic:  A-

Booker is good in these forums. He is smart on substantive issues and he manages to be funny without coming off like a dick.  These talents have not translated into any kind of traction in the polls as yet.

3. Amy Klobuchar   Tactical: A-  Strategic: A-

She had some good lines and got buzz on social media.  I was perhaps a little underwhelmed, only because I follow her closely and have heard some of those line rehearsed already.  She also seemed to shake, slightly.  I think it was something about her bangs hanging funny, but it was noticeable and a little distracting.

BREAK EVENS

4. Bernie Sanders  Tactical:  B+ Strategic:  B+

He played the hit and he seemed to look healthy again, which is good. He also looked younger than Biden, which is something. 

5.  Joe Biden    Tactical: B-  Strategic:  B

Joe had a few embarrassing moments but I don't think they will hurt him.  It's just hard to get fired up by him because you keep waiting for him to say something stupid.  That is a problem.

6. Kamala Harris  Tactical: B-  Strategic: B-
She seemed a little tired. But then again, so did I.

7. Elizabeth Warren   Tactical:  C+  Strategic:  B-
More of the same. I think she may have hit a ceiling of support.

LOSERS

8. Andrew Yang  Tactical: C  Strategic: C

Who gives a shit?

9. Tom Steyer:  Tactical:   C-  Strategic:  C-

Remember the episode of Seinfeld where Kramer goes to baseball fantasy camp? The Steyer campaign feels like that. He's old and he's rich and he's going through a divorce so he's spending a bunch of money to pretend he's running for president. His presence on the stage tonight was as if the Kramer was allowed to play a few actual major league games as a September call up.

10. Tulsi Gabbard  Tactical:  Incomplete  Strategic: Incomplete

There is something really, really wrong with her. And the way she wears that white suit every fucking day creeps me out.

The World and the Election Turn it Up a Notch (Eighth Look at the 2020 Democratic Field)

I last updated my rankings of the Democratic field on September 1st. A lot has happened since then, both in the race and in the world at large. Before I get to the rankings I want to take a moment to comment on what I think will determine the outcome of the election.

The election is in 54 weeks. I estimate that the Democratic party is a slight favorite to win. If I were to put it in probabilities, I would say the Democrats have about a 55% chance of winning and the Republicans about 45%.  But we're not sure who will be the nominee of well, either party.  I think a moderate Democrat (Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg) would have about a 60% chance and a more liberal candidate (Warren, Sanders, O'Rourke) would be in a very close election that would be decided by just one or two states. (If I had to guess, Wisconsin.)

Note: I think Harris is somewhere in between these two blocs idealogically and would be a very modest favorite to win.

I.  The Policies that Will Drive the Election Next  Year.

Before getting more specific on the horse race, I want to write briefly about the substance of the election. I now believe there are five issues that will shape the course of the race over these next 54 weeks, and I want to write about each of them in order of importance.

1. The Kurds, Syria and Iraq.  I thought that Trump's re-election campaign had one really solid policy arrow in its quiver-the claim that he defeated ISIS.  Now this isn't really true. The destruction of the ISIS caliphate was largely a result of carrying out the plans made and initiated during the Obama administration. But Trump did manage to not fuck that up. In fact he accelerated it a bit by arming a lot of Kurds in Syria to fight our common enemy.  Eleven thousand of those Kurds died in that fight.  Two weeks ago, for reasons still known only to him, he gave the government of Turkey the green light to slaughter them. The carnage and loss of life will be terrible.

The beneficiaries of this plan are Russia, the Assad regime in Syria and the Erogan government in Turkey. It is likely that ISIS will make gains too, although it's hard to say what form they will take. Today our soldiers left Syria for western Iraq. They were pelted with fruit on the way out of the country. The consequences of this betrayal will be extremely negative in the long run.

It is my hope that some principled Republicans repudiate President Trump over this betrayal. But only two Republican house members have done that so far. John Shimkus (R-IL) and Francis Rooney (R-FL).  Neither man is running for re-election next year.  For now, Trump is keeping the Republican party despite this pathetic fecklessness. That might hold. But it won't if things go really bad in Syria and Iraq.

2.  Impeachment.  Last week Mick Mulvaney took to the podium in the White House and admitted that the president withheld foreign aid from Ukraine unless they conducted an investigation of the president's mostl likely electoral opponent in 2020.  In normal times, this would cause a president to resign in shame. But Donald Trump is incapable of shame and he is pretending that there was nothing wrong in this decision.  The prediction markets have been pretty firm for over a week-there is about a 70% chance that Donald Trump will be impeached by the House but only about a 20% chance that he will be removed by the senate.

Today Bill Taylor gave his deposition and apparently drew a direct line from Donald Trump to a quid pro quo that conditioned Ukraine receiving aid to defend themselves from Russia on opening an investigation into Joe Biden.  This is rank corruption. If the Republican party were not so heavily in the bag for Trump, his removal from office would be a virtual certainty.

I think the odds of Trump being impeached are more like 80%. The house is gathering a lot of evidence and at least some of the people close to the president have been cooperating. But there are only two Republican senators that have even hinted that they might consider this impeachable conduct. To remove him from office, the Democrats will need at least 20 Republican votes. (Two Democrats, might waver due to political pressure in the states they represent, Alabama and West Virginia.)

If he is impeached but not removed, he will claim complete vindication.  But it's likely that the evidence presented at trial will damage his popularity among independent voters.

If he is removed, then the evidence was so strong that nearly half of the Republican caucus could not ignore the criminality. Under those circumstances, the Republicans probably nominate Mike Pence and lose big next year. If this all comes together soon, then there could be a competitive primary between Pence and Tom Cotton and or Nikki Haley. Ted Cruz will try to run because that's his only purpose in life now. If it happens as late as next spring, the party bosses might get to pick their nominee. They will be tempted to nominate Nikki Haley, although I still believe that the Republican base is incapable of embracing the daughter of Indian immigrants as their presidential candidate.

So the Democrats probably win if Trump is removed from office. If he is merely impeached, then the effect of the process will turn on the strength of the evidence presented to the public.


3.  Health care. I have watched most of the debates while scanning Twitter. During every debate so far, liberals on Twitter have complained loudly that the moderators spend too much time talking about health care. But the reason for this disproportionate time is simple-health care is the one issue that even casual primary voters care about. It affects their bottom line, so people pay attention during those discussion.

Most of the Democratic field have similar views on Donald Trump, immigration, and the need to increase taxes on wealthy Americans. There is even a lot of agreement on most matters of foreign policy, and the field even seems to agree that foreign policy is not worth talking about much. And they all want to move towards great health insurance coverage. But the most identifiable difference is between those who want to move to universal coverage through Medicare and those who support a more incremental proposal. That is the right versus left rift in the field.

Health care is a frustrating issue for a centrist. All of the data from every advance country tells us that our system sucks. And it would be greatly improved if the federal government got more involved in controlling price and making coverage available to more people. But the problem is that a majority of voters have good-enough coverage that they are wary of making big changes to the bloated, irrational system that we have built since World War Two.

Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders both want to go big here. They want to put all Americans on Medicare, effectively ending the private insurance industry and putting Uncle Sam in charge of it all. They have plenty of data to support the idea that in the long-term this will be more efficient and cheaper than the status quo.  But like any big idea, it creates problems.  These are the main three:

1. It probably can't pass. Even if the Dems take the senate with 50 or 51 seats, there will be moderates who don't want to vote for this in the caucus.
2. The courts as presently constituted will probably strike this down. Obamacare survived by the skin of its teeth. And the courts have move rightward since that decision. Neither Sanders nor Warren will acknowledge this fact, because they are running more on ideals than a pragmatic plan for how to govern the country.
3. If it were passed and somehow upheld by the courts, it would be extremely vulnerable to being gutted. The Republican party has not flinched in its mission to gut Obamacare, even popular elements of it, like expanind Medicaid coverage, have been resisted by the Republican party all across the country.  If a Medicare For All plan became law, it would still need to be funded every year. And the GOP would be dead set on choking it to death in its crib.

If the Democratic nominee runs on Medicare for all, it will be easy for the Republican candidate to scare voters into thinking that the Democrats are coming for their health care. And that's the fucked up thing about this Trojan Horse we call a health care system-people only really care about what will happen to their family. So the best we can realistically hope for are incremental changes.

Medicare for all is a political loser. That is why I think a Warren nomination will make the election too close to call.

4. The Economy.   Donald Trump raided the treasury to pay for a huge tax cut that endeared him to rich people. A lot of squishy Republicans who know he is a jerk might hold their nose and vote for him because they believe in the power of tax cuts as much as any junkie every believed in the drug that was killing them. This sounds pathological (and it is) but it describes a lot of Romney/Gary Johnson voters-the exact demographic that the Democratic nominee needs to win over.

Trump's economic record is mixed. The job market has remained strong. The tax cuts spurred some growth, but that has cooled down to 2.0 percent last quarter. Over the next year, I don't think it will get appreciably better than that. But we probably won't have a recession.

Trump's other economic stratagem has been a foolish trade war with China. The tariffs he placed on Chinese good caused retaliatory tariffs on our exports. Farmers in particular have been hurt by this. I expect Trump to find a way to end his trade war with China, call it a victory and lift all or most of the tariffs he put in place on them. China would be wise to reciprocate, and the farmers in Iowa and Ohio who have been suffering, just might be feeling better about their lot in life a year from now. This is an easy win for Trump, but he is not beyond blowing the opportunity.

5. Trump Fatigue.  Trump might escape being removed from office. The Republican party is in hock to him, and that could keep him in office. If he's still in office, he will waltz to the nomination. He is popular with a large enough swath of the public that he can make a race close, especially if the Democratic nominee runs poorly. But the plain fact is that the country and the world know that Donald Trump is an asshole.  And that counts. A lot.

Donald Trump thinks that life is a zero sum game, which is why he is obsessed with bilateral trade deficits.  This transactional  approach to life has caused him to align the United States with dictators and autocrats.  The world is seeing the price for this realignment, most acutely in Ukraine and Syria.

Ukraine is fighting off an invasion by Russia. Syria is fighting a civil war, where Russia and Turkey have enormous interest in who wins. Most Americans don't care about Ukranians or Kurds but we do care about being the good guys. At least we used to. And we ought to be rooting for the side of democratic freedom, especially where those freedoms meet the autocracies of the poorer world.  That is what Ukraine and Syria have in common. The best Democratic candidate might just be the person who can convince the people of Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona that they should want to be the good guys again. Convincing them that Donald Trump is a bad guy should be an easy first step.

II.  The Horse Race, Take Eight.

The candidates, in order of likelihood to be the nominee. Incredibly, only one candidate has dropped out in the past 53 days. (Bye-bye Bill de Blasio.)

A. The Top Tier (The Front-Runners)

1. Elizabeth Warren  (Up from 2)

She had a great month or so of polling and briefly overtook Joe Biden in the RCP polling average. That wave seems to have crested, perhaps in part due to her performance in the 4th debate. But the betting markets now favor her heavily, so I move her to the top spot.  But she has a lot of vulnerabilities and shouldn't get too comfortable here.


2. Joe Biden (Down from 1)

He's old. And it's showing.That's why he slipped.  He might rebound, especially if foreign affairs come to the fore, but he is not putting this race away. Not by a long shot.

3. Bernie Sanders

He's old. And he had a heart attack. But he looked lively in the debate and he got some good press out of an endorsement by Representative Ocasio-Cortez.  He has a loyal following and will probably vacuum up a lot of delegates. But his health is a concern and his shtick wears thin.

B. Tier Two (The Other Contenders)

4. Pete Buttigieg (Up from 5)

He could benefit if Bernie slips. He's done well on the stump and educated voters like him a lot. I first ranked the candidates on December 30, 2018. I ranked Mayor Pete 23rd, which was dead fucking last.  This is what I wrote at the time:  Mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana. Like everyone who spends time in South Bend, he has an inflated sense of his own self-worth.

I was wrong. Pete is a serious and skilled politician. He deserves to be given serious consideration, even if his resume is imperfect.

5. Kamala Harris (Down from 4)

She's not just down one spot, she is down a tier. Her polling has been really rough for the past month. I still think she would be a good president but I'm not sure she can close this deal.


C. Tier Three (Those Guys)

6. Cory Booker (Up from 7)

Still not my favorite, but he has a good presence and might hang around long enough to capitalize on any chaos further up the chain.

7. Amy Klobuchar (Up from 9)

She has gotten a lot of chatter as the best moderate alternative to Biden. But this has not shown up in the polls yet and she might miss the next debate. I hope her buzz translates into improved polling numbers soon, because she's going to need a strong performance in Iowa to stay in the race.

8. Beto O'Rourke (Down from 6) and
9. Julian Castro (Down from 8)

The Texan boys have some talent but they don't seem to be of presidential timber. They both might already be thinking about a personal exit strategy but I'm not sure what either of them will do with their time after this race.

D. Tier Four (Long Shots)

10. Michael Bennet.
11. Steven Bullock

They probably would have been good VP candidates. Bullock might still be, but dropping out before Iowa might help him stay viable for that.

12. John Delaney

He should drop out and endorse Klobuchar. But he probably still has consultants willing to take his money and he must not be ready to give it up. I think he'll drop out after Iowa.

E. Tier Five (Novelty Candidates)

13. Andrew Yang

He will get votes. He will get delegates. He will birth a really annoying fringe political movement that gets out sized attention because it is mostly white and prosperous. But he will not be the nominee.

14. Tulsi Gabbard

She managed to generate some publicity this week by hopping on a report in the New York Times that inaccurately suggested that Hillary Clinton thought she was being groomed by the Russians. I can't imagine her dropping out and she might get some crossover fuck-you votes from Republicans. But she's an asshole and needs to go away.

15. Tom Steyer (Up from 17)
16. Tim Ryan (Down from 15)
17. Marianne Williamson (Up from 20)
18. Joe Sestak  (Down from 16)
19. Wayne Messam

The funnest fact of 2020 so far: Wayne Messam raised exactly $5 during the 3rd quarter of this year. That is one-half of a roll of quarters.


III.  The Power Rankings, Take Eight.
Here is how I rank the candidates just by my personal preferences.

1.  Klobuchar
2.  Harris
3.  Buttigieg (Up from nine)
4.  Michael Bennet (Up from 6)
5.  Steve Bullock (Up from 7)
6.  Elizabeth Warren (Down from 3)
7.  Beto O'Rourke (Down from 4)
8.  Julian Castro (Down from 5)
9.  Joe Biden
10. Cory Booker (Up from 11)
11. John Delaney (Down from 10)
12. Joe Sestak (Up from 13)
13. Tim Ryan (Down from 12)
14. Bernie Sanders
15. Wayne Messam
16.  Andrew Yang
17.  Tom Steyer
18.   Marianne Williamson
19.   Tulsi Gabbard

4th Democratic Debate Grades and New Rankings

There were profound events in the world this week. The President of the United States left an ally to be slaughtered by Turkish militias. He did this because his lazy, weak and corrupt.  Tonight's debate should have focused on that, but it did not.

That said, this debate was more substantive than the earlier debates. The biggest headline is that Warren took a lot of flak, as befits her status as the new front-runner. As for how she did, the news is mixed. Overall she did not do great. But there might be a silver lining in this-the folks who did best at attacking her, are pretty far back in the polls. 

As with the previous debates, I'll give a tactical and a strategic grade for each candidate.  And in  day or two I will update my rankings of the candidates.

WINNERS:

1. Amy Klobuchar   Tactical: A  Strategic: A

If you read this blog regularly-and there are at least six of you who do, then you know Klobuchar is my preferred candidate. Tonight she was the only person who mentioned Trump's betrayal of the Kurds  in the first hour of the debate. She also did a good job of pointing out the weaknesses of Warren's policies and campaign.  She needed a big night and she really should get a bounce from it. I don't think it will be enough to get her near the top but I hope it's enough to get her in the next debate.

2. Pete Buttigieg  Tactical:  A-  Strategic A

Solid on all points. An adult and a skilled debater. I am beginning to think he might be ready for this job after all. (And I never thought I would say that.)

3. Bernie Sanders  Tactical:  A- Strategic:  A-

Bernie had one important job tonight-look healthy.  He did that. And he wasn't bad on the substance, given how played out his shtick is.  No harm done to him tonight and he might rebound from a recent dip.

4. Cory Booker   Tactical:  B+   Strategic:  A-

Cory usually plays the voice of reason and he did again tonight. But he never seems to get traction after his strong performances, in part because he usually says something annoying. Tonight he brought up his veganism three times.  That is four times too many.

5  (TIE) Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke   Tactical: B+  Strategic:  B+

They were fine. But I don't see either of them rocketing up the ranks anytime soon.

7. Andrew Yang  Tactical: B  Strategic: B

He's not a serious candidate, so I don't grade him based on whether he's going to be president. But he made some good points and probably will raise some more money for his future podcast and multi-level marketing empire.

8.  Joe Biden    Tactical: B  Strategic:  C

Joe avoided any huge gaffes, which counts for something but it's impossible to watch him speak for even one minute without thinking about his age.  He gets visibly confused in ways that make me uncomfortable.  I don't know if there is a solution to that.

9. Elizabeth Warren   Tactical:  C+  Strategic:  B-

She looked evasive and even duplicitous in her half-assed explanation/defense of Medicare for All plan. 

10. Kamala Harris  Tactical: B-  Strategic:  C-

She went for some very easy applause line on reproductive choice by saying things that literally everyone on the stage agrees with. But then she really went hard at Elizabeth Warren on the silliest issue possible-banning Donald Trump from Twitter.  That diminishes her already fading candidacy.

11. Tom Steyer:  Tactical:   C  Strategic:  C

The moderators were correct to give him the bare minimum of attention and he did his best to make them not regret that decision.  Some of his answers were delivered competently. He's obviously been rehearsing for this moment. He had a neat thing of starting every answer with a compliment of someone other candidate.  But this is the saddest middle age crisis I've ever been forced to watch on television.  If he wanted to do good with his fortune, he has a ton of options.  This verkhakta campaign ain't one. 

12. Tulsi Gabbard  Tactical:  Incomplete  Strategic: Incomplete

She is loathsome. But I can't grade her fairly because I'm not sure what her objective is. Maybe she wants to be the presidential nominee of the Democratic party. Maybe she wants to build some kind of political movement based on.....God knows what. But she did nothing to dispel rumors/conspiracy thinking that she intends to run as an independent or third party candidate.

I want to state that I was and am firmly opposed to our military invasion of Iraq. But for her to act like Trump's betrayal of the Kurds was a price worth paying for bringing 1,000 soldiers home* is despicable.

*They are not coming home yet. They are going to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, because the Saudi government is renting them from a man who thinks our military is a revenue center and our soldiers are Hessians. 

The President Will Be Probably Be Impeached

I write to record my recent realization that it is likely that Donald Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives. I believed that the Mueller investigation resulted in enough evidence to warrant an impeachment inquiry, but the House leadership was reluctant to open one. They were probably content to just fight him in an election next november. But then Trump did himself in.

Just one day after Robert Mueller testified before congress, Donald Trump called the president of Ukraine and pressured him to open an investigation of Joe Biden's son.  And when a whistle-blower came forward, Donald Trump acted like it was perfectly normal for a president to use his office to get dirt on a political opponent. 

The dam broke tonight, as evidence by two extraordinary pieces in the Washington Post. 

1. At 9:00 PM Eastern, the posted an Op-Ed by seven freshman Democratic Represenatives. (Reps. Gil Cisneros of California, Jason Crow of Colorado, Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, Elaine Luria of Virginia, Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.)  All seven are veterans of the armed forces or America's intelligence services. None of them have been controversial during their eigh months in office. They wrote to say that if the allegationw are true, that Donald Trump must be removed from office.

You can read that here:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/24/seven-freshman-democrats-these-allegations-are-threat-all-we-have-sworn-protect/?outputType=amp

2. At 10: 40 Eastern, three Washington Post reporters broke new details on the Ukranian scandal. They report that President Trump ordered $400 of military aid to Ukraine to be withheld just days before his conversation with Ukraine's president. 

You can read that here:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-ordered-hold-on-military-aid-days-before-calling-ukrainian-president-officials-say/2019/09/23/df93a6ca-de38-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html?fbclid=IwAR148xEQ_O-SRw9Tjuz101x5XXEEzOzCVwaqPodbMjANnroAeQIY-JPKjvM

This is naked corruption. If the allegations are proven, he must be removed from office. The House probably still did not want to go down this road, but he has given them no choice.  

It's now just after midnight on the east coast. I think the next few days will be massive news days. We will probably learn more about the whistle blower complaint. I expect the house to move to officially open an inquiry and for events to unfold quickly.

Three hours ago I would have said that Trump was going to avoid an impeachment process. I no longer believe that. I think hearings will be held, articles drafted and if I had to be right now, I would say that a majority of the house will vote to impeach him.

After that, things move to the senate. There is almost no indication that any Republicans are ready to vote to convict him, although Mitt Romney has made enough half-hearted statements of concern to draw the president's ire.

Donald Trump got away with solicitiing foreign interference in his first presidential election.  Just one day after Robert Mueller testified to the contents of his report, Donald Trump began asking for that interference from a different country.  But this time he was president. And this time he got caught.  It now appears that there will be a meaningful attempt to get justice for this High Crime and Misdemeanor.

Third Democratic Debate Grades

The nine most serious candidates for the Democratic nomination were finally on the stage tonight. So was Andrew Yang.  Here are my thoughts on how they all did. I give each candidate separate tactical and strategic grades.  I think it's construct to evaluate how well they performed tonight in the immediate sense but more importantly whether or not that performance will actually improve their chance to be the nominee. 

1.  Elizabeth Warren  Tactical: A+ Strategic: A.

Warren is probably the smartest person in this field. And tonight she was definitely the best prepared. She knew that she would get plenty of screen time, so she didn't fight for more. She seemed to know that most of the flak would be directed at Joe Biden. She also knows that most Democratic primary voters do not like when a candidate goes hard at another Democrat. So Warren answered her questions and she answered them well. But she didn't go for cheap applause lines and she didn't offend anyone. This is exactly how a front-runner should perform.

2. Pete Buttigieg  Tactical: A, Strategic:  A

He is both young and intelligent. He obviously has the temperament for this job and a pretty good feeling for where both the Democratic base and the general election persuadable voters are, politically.  He is still a long shot to be the nominee because his resume is too short and I don't think the left wing will embrace him. But he did great tonight.

3.  Cory Booker:  Tactical A, Strategic: A-

I do not like Senator Booker. I think he is a phony. But he was great tonight. He was charming and witty without seeming too rehearsed. I do no think he will shoot up in the polls, but he helped himself as much as possible tonight. 

4.  Joe Biden  Tactical:  A-, Strategic: A-

Biden was better prepared tonight and he excelled in the first half of the debate. His team obviously told him to avoid using names and to not get bogged down in details. But his presence was pretty good and he conveyed his message well. Of course in the last 45 minutes or so he had a few of his usual slips. (He even talked about 'record players' during a question about education reform.)  But I don't think he said anything that will gain traction in the media so he probably still stays at the front of this field for now.

5.  Amy Klobuchar  Tactical:  A-, Strategic:  B+

Her substance was very good.  Like Buttigieg, she has views that are sensible and popular generally. But she's not charismatic on television and I would be surprised if she gets much of a bump out of tonight's performance. That's too bad because she would make an excellent president and is the perfect antidote to Trumpism.

6.  Kamala Harris  Tactical B+, Strategic: B+

She was comfortable and relaxed. I am inclined to like her, so that played well with me. Her plan was obviously to make the night about bashing Trump and she got a couple good lines off, but I don't think that made her stand out particularly.  She does deserve credit for improving on the subject of criminal justice reform. 

7. Beto O'Rourke  Tactical:  B+, Strategic: B

Beto is handsome and he can articulate a talking point well.  Perhaps the most telling moments tonight was that he was complimented so frequently by other candidates on the stage.  They know he is popular in Texas. They also know he's not much of a threat to become the nominee.  But he did not cost himself any votes tonight.

8.  Bernie Sanders  Tactical:  C+, Strategic: C

I have a friend who saw Flock of Seagulls in Concert about 20 years ago.  They played "I Run"...twice. Because what the hell else do you want to hear Flock of Seagulls play?  Bernie too only has one hit and he plays it as often as the crowd will let him. But his team failed him by not giving him cough drops before the debate. He is mailing it in now.

9.  Julian Castro     Tactical: C, Strategic: D

He sucked. And he took a shot at Biden's age. That probably cost him an ambassadorship. 

10. Andrew Yang  Tactical:  D, Strategic:  Not Applicable.

This clown is not running to be president. He is running to be a celebrity. And he actually started the night by offering a bribe to voters.  That gimmick will probably get him some email addresses and exactly 10 votes.  But he really showed his hand tonight. He is not running to be president. He is not running to win a cabinet spot or to be the ambassador to Aruba. He is running to be some combination of Joe Rogan and Tony Robbins.  Fuck him.

The Field Begins To Whittle (The 2020 Democratic Field, Take Seven)

Labor Day is traditionally when voters supposedly start paying attention to a presidential election.  So we are only one year away from normal people starting to really thinkg about this process.  In the meantime, we political nerds soldier on.

I last updated the field four weeks ago. Since then we have had a few drop outs.  Three dropped out before officially missing the cut and Senator Gillibrand dropped out as soon as she officially missed the cut. (Good for her. Being a senator from New York is a pretty sweet gig. There's not need to waste the next 4 months in Iowa and New Hampshire.)

I. The Power Rankings, Take Seven.

These are just my preferences, without regard to the chances they will win the nomination.  There is not a lot of movement this time, except for the spaces created by former candidates, most notably Jay Inslee who had shot up from 13th to 4th in my last ranking. The removal of the three other former candidates, Hickenlooper (13), Gillibrand (14) and Moulton (16) caused less disruption. 

1. Amy Klobuchar  
2. Kamala Harris 
3. Elizabeth Warren    
4 Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)  He seems more relevant after his response to the El Paso shooting and just yesterday there was another horrific shooting in West Texas.  I'm not counting him out yet.

5. Julian Castro (Down from 4)  He seems to be getting slithgly desperate. This week he put forth a proposal to make it illegal for animal shelters to euthanize unadopted pets. There may ben argument for tha ton the merits, but it is NOT an issue for the federal government to decide. It struck me as an attempt to hit a very specific fundraising niche.  (Cat ladys.)

6. Michael Bennett (Up from 7)
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Pete Buttigieg (9)
9. Joe Biden (10)
10. John Delaney (11)

11. Corey Booker  (12)
12. Tim Ryan
13. Joe Sestak (Up from 17)
14. Bernie Sanders (18)
15. Wayne Messam  (20)

16. Andrew Yang (19)  I have to explain something here. Yang moved "up" 3 spots because 4 candidates dropped out.  But I'm moving him behind Wayne Messam for a very specific reason. I know nothing about Wayne Messam. He is the mayor of a some mid-size Florida city that I can't even remember the name of. He's youngish and African-American. I don't know if he's a good mayor or a bad mayor. I don't know his religion or his priorities or his favorite band. I think it's slightly absurd that he's running for President of the United States but I also have to assume that he is more qualified and competent for the job than a name chosen at random from the phone book. 

To be ranked below Messam, I have to think you would be worse than a random name chosen from a phone book. Last month I gave Yang the benefit of the doubt that he was. I have now sseen enough of him to conclude that he is not. His ideas are stupid and I believe he is running to become a fringe public intellectual akin to Ron Paul. He is going to wind up building a small political movement that disrupts things for no substantive purpose. Just like Ron Paul.

17. Tom Steyer (Unranked)  I think I forgot about him last time. I'm glad he didn't qualify for the debate because he's a rich asshole who should have better ways to waste his money than to juice the ad revenues of Iowa TV chanels and radio stations. Build a hospital for Christ's sake.
18. Bill de Blasio (21)  

19. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
20. Marianne Williamson (23) 

II. The Horse Race, Take Seven.

A.  The Top Tier (Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
4. Kamala Harris (Down from 3)

Harris' slip in the polls has been pretty consistent over the past month.  Her performance in the 2nd debate was poorly received and pretty much erased the bounce that she got from a strong performance in the first.  I still think Bernie is unlikely to be the nominee but he should do well in the first 2 states and I think it will be tough for Harris to withstand finishing out of the money in both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Buttigieg or O'Rourke finishes ahead of her in either place. She is still my preference among the top 4 candidates, but she can't be please with the trajectory of her candidacy.

B.  Tier Two (Those Guys).

5.  Pete Buttigieg
6.  Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)
7. Cory Booker  (Down form 7)
8.  Julian Castro

I slid Mayor Pete down to the second tier because his support has been on a plateau for months. He is an appealing guy and has the right temperament to be President some day. But I don't think people are going to flock to his candidacy in a big way. He's kind of stuck in 5th place, unless Kamala or Bernie tank. 

He also fits a little better with the other three candidates in this tier. They are all moderate. They each have some strengths and some obvious weaknesses. Three of them have been mayors. If a Democrat wins, all of them will be considered for important jobs.  And there is a least a chance that any one of them might find a cause or have a moment that shoots them up into contention. It hasn't happened yet, but there is hope.

C. Tier Three (The Grown Ups).

9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Michael Bennet (12)
11. Steve Bullock (14)
12. John Delaney (13)

These candidates are more experienced than the "Those Guys" Bunch but a lot less charismatic and therefore less likely to be the nominee.  If God gave me a magic wand and said I could pick which tier the next president would come from, I would choose this bunch.  But I am more moderate than the typical primary voter and less interested in how dynamic someone seems on television. I wish this group well, and I think 2 or 3 of them might be able to 

D. Tier Four (Long Shots)

13. Andrew Yang (21)  He's had an undeniable bump in the polls-all the way to 2 or 3 percent.
14. Tulsi Gabbard (19)
15. Tim Ryan   I think he's running to raise his profile in order to one day run for Governor or maybe for speaker of the House.
16. Joe Sestak (18)
17. Tom Steyer
18. Bill de Blasio  (17)   The complete rejection of this guy by the national party has warmed my heart. 


E.  Fifth Tier (Trainwrecks)
19. Wayne Mesam (22)  I hope he sticks around if only because he now serves a specific purpose in my power rankings.   I wonder if his wife teases him by calling him "President-Elect" when he forgets to take out the trash.
20. Marianne Williamson (23)  Fuck her.

2020 Democratic Field, Take Six (Post 2nd Debate)

I.  Do You Ever Think About Death?

This weekend, the country experienced two horrific mass shootings. That's a lot, even for US.

It's early but the reaction this time feels different. Tonight the governor of Ohio was shouted down at a vigil with chants of "Do Something." Watch the video. Only about half the attendees are actively chanting but what's really interesting is the reaction of those who are not chanting. They are quiet. They are not telling anyone to stop chanting. They seem torn, between wanting to be respectful of the fact they are at a vigil and wanting to well, "Do Something."

The shooting in El Paso was inspired by the racist rhetoric of our President and his obedient bullhorn, the Fox News Channel.  The shooter wrote a manifesto that made two broad points-the United State is being invaded by non-white immigrants and that white Americans need to use their right to bear Arms to repel this invasion because the white people of Europe do not share those rights. 

This one is on the Republicans, full-square. It will fade as a news story, as all of these horrific episodes do.  But it has reinforced the narrative that Donald Trump is a white nationalist. And it has so far emboldened Democrats to connect those dots. 

We'll see if these facts affect poll data as the weeks go by. I suspect that it will. Americans are sick of living like this. And I think the silly idea that that this is about mental health or praryer in schools or motherfucking video games is finally being treated as the nonsense that it has always been. 

II.  The Field Takes Shape, (Sort of)

The past week gave us some slight clarity on the state of the race for the Democratic nomination. After two rounds of debates, the polls are about where they were two months ago-Biden leads, with Warren, Harris and Sanders also in double digits. Pete Buttigieg remains in fifth. Beto O'Rourke is a distant sixth, and everyone else is reguarly pollin between 1 and 2 points in both statewide and national polls.  

Only eight candidates have qualified for the third debate in Houston, with Klobuchar and Booker joining the above mentioned candidates.  Andrew Yang and Julian Castro each need one more poll at 2 perecnet or above to put them in the debate. I expect they will both get that.

That would bring the field up to ten candidates. That would mean one night of debates, with all the front runners on stage together. If an 11th candidate qualifies, then the field will be split in two again, so we might not get the top four on the same stage. But the smaller panels will give each candidate more time to speak.  I'm rooting for 11 to qualify because I think Klobuchar will benefit from being given more time on her night. 

Only three candidates have even a single qualifying poll at two percent-Gabbard, Hickenlooper and Steyer. Gabbard has met the donors threshold. None of the others are close. So we might need a Gabbard bounce to split the field in Houston.


III. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Six.

These are my purely personal preferences.  Since the last rankings, Eric Swalwell and Mike Gravel have dropped out of the race. So we are down to 23 spots. 

Changes from the previous ranking are noted for each candidate. (Not a lot of change this time.)   



1. Amy Klobuchar  Unchanged
2. Kamala Harris (Up from 3)
3. Elizabeth Warren  (Down from 2).  
4. Julian Castro (5)  Unchanged

5. Jay Inslee (Up from 13)  He had a strong performance and let's face it-his priority is the right one. If we don' stop heating up the planet, we are all fucked. 
6. Beto O'Rourke (Down from 5)  He had another laclucster night in the debate, but he has a rare opportunity to speak about the shooting in his hometown. So far, he is speaking plainly and truthfully.

7. Michael Bennett (Unchanged)  
8. Steve Bullock (Unchanged)
9. Pete Buttigieg (Unchanged)
10. Joe Biden (Unchanged)
11. John Delaney (Unchanged)

12. Corey Booker  (Up from 14)
13. John Hickenlooper (9)
14. Kristin Gillibrand  (Down from 6)  Her attack on Joe Biden was very dishonest. I hope she starts looking for the exit once she officially fails to make the next debate stage..
15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged)

16. Seth Moulton (Up from 17)
17. Joe Sestak (Up from 18)
18. Bernie Sanders (Unchanged)

19. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)  

20. Wayne Messam  (Unchanged)
21. Bill de Blasio (Down from19)  He is a prick.

22. Tulsi Gabbard (Unchanged)
23. Marianne Williamson (Down from 20)  

IV..   The Horse Race, Take Six.

This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. 

The Top Tier Candidates 

There are no changes in this tier from last time.
1. Joe Biden 
2. Elizabeth Warren 
3. Kamala Harris
4. Bernie Sanders 
5. Pete Buttigieg 

The Pack 

Swapped the Texans.

6. Cory Booker (Unchanged)
7. Beto O'Rourke (8)

8. Julian Castro (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)

Flawed and/or Floundering 

Only 4 candidates left here, down from six last time. I think Gillibrand and Ryan have been exposed as candidates with no particular rational or political base to draw from. They are long shots.

10. Jay Inslee (Up from 13)

11. John Hickenloper (Up from 12)

12. Michael Bennett (Down from 10)
13. John Delaney (Up from 14)

Long Shots

14. Steve Bullock (Up from 19)

15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged at 15, but down a tier to long shot, because he is meathead.)

16. Kristen Gillibrand (Down from 10)

17. Bill de Blasio (Unchanged)
18. Joe Sestak (Unchanged)

19. Tulsi Gabbbard Unchanged)

20. Seth Moulton (17)

Train Wrecks
21. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)
22. Wayne Messam (Up from 23, by attrition) 
23. Marrianne Williamson (Up from 24, also by attrition)

Second Round of Democratic Debates

This should be the last debate with 20 candidates.  It is an unwieldy way to run an election and it is wasteful of air time.

It's hard to grade performances across two nights, especially when half of the candidates are not serious. So I'm going to rank the 20 candidates from most to least likely to be elected president next year.  I will give each of them two grades-one for how they performed tactically-that is whether or not they advanced their cause in the short term.  And then a separate grade for how they performed strategically-that is did they enhance their actual chances of becoming president (or enhancing their long term political prospects.) At some point, I will stop giving strategic great because half of these people are running to boost their speaker fees and maybe land a TV gig.

1.  Biden Tactical A-, Strategic, B+

Biden drew a lot of heat, just as he did last time. But this time he was prepared. He wasn't in full command of the facts, but he withstood a lot of heat. He is past his prime. But he's probably got enough left in the tank to win this race.

2.  Harris  Tactical: B-, Strategic: B.

Harris obviously listened to all the good press she got after attacking Biden in the first debate. Tonight she seemed unprepared to receive the same kind of fire from everyone else on the stage. She was the star of the fist debate, she was middling tonight.

That said, I'm bullish on her candidacy. I think she made a big mistake by committing to a huge tax cut as the centerpiece of her campaign, but her health plan is pretty solid and she doesn't alienate independents with her talking points.

3. Warren  Tactical B+, Strategic: C.

She landed a lot of good blows on Delaney and some other irrelevancies.  That won her the night, but she also expressed some really dumb ideas. That will catch up to her if she's the nominee.

4. Sanders  Tactical: B, Strategic: C
His talking points are so vapid that I can't believe people still want him to be president. That's my analysis.

5. Buttigieg  Tactical: A, Strategic: A-.
He is good in this format. He's calm and clever and very reassuring.  I still think he's a long shot but I think he has elevated his long term prospects more than anyone in the field.  If a Democrat wins, he will get an important job.

6. Inselee  Tactical: A-, Strategic: A.
He's got an issue that resonates with the base and a demeanor that scores well with moderates. He's a long shot, I won't count him out now.

7. Klobuchar  Tactical: B, Strategic: B+
She remains my preferred candidate but there is no getting around the fact that she is boring in this format.  Her message should be resonating more-she really is the strongest candidate to beat Trump but it seems unlikely that she will get that chance.  I really hope she gets the remaining donors needed to participate in the 3rd debates in Houston, because I think she might do better on a smaller stage.

8. Booker  Tactical B+, Strategic: B+
He had a few good moments.  He has a lane, but he's not doing much to seize it.

9. Castro  Tactical; A-, Strategic: B
He is a good debater and would make a good President some day. But it's hard to think of what demographic he connected with tonight.

10. Bullock Tactical: A-, Strategic: B+
He was good on substance but middling on style.  He probably won't make the next debate stage, but if he does, I hope he rehearses getting his talking points out.

11. Beto O'Rourke: Tactical: C+, Strategic: B.
It's easy to forget that he's running in this race.  But he made some good points about why he would be a good general election candidate. He already qualified for the next debate, which will be in Texas.

12. John Delaney:  Tactical: A

Delaney was annoying and, at times, petulant.  But he had one job-to get camera time and to beat the drum for centrism.  He gamed the system well-the rules reward making attacks against specific candidates, which invites cross fire.  He looked dumb in one or two moments and he's probably doomed to be a punchline down the line.  But last night everyone on social media was amazed at how much face time he got.  It seemed odd, but it was deliberate.

That said, he's never going to be president. And he doesn't have a long term future in politics. This is an ego campaign by a very rich man. That ego got stroked last night, and he might have made some points that get picked up by Biden or even Harris down the line.

13. Michael Bennett: Tactical: B+
He did fine. And nobody cares. He's not going to become president and he is probably hurting his long term national prospects.

14. Tim Ryan:  Tactical: C.
He's a meat head. That's my analysis.

15. Andrew Yang Tactical: B.
He was terrible in the first debate, merely unremarkable this time. He's probably going to wind up with a niche platform going forward. If he's serious about his ideas, he will run for a house seat sometime. But I think he's better suited to being an Internet intellectual.

16. John Hickenlooper. Tactical: C
I think his name is John. Maybe it's Jon. Please don't tell me. It's better not to know.


17. Kristen Gillibrand: Tactical: C.
She is a scrapper. She just sucks at it. Before tonight I thought for sure she would be dropping out soon, but he came loaded for bear tonight and unloaded some heavy smack on Biden. I do not think she has accepted that this race is futile yet.  Hopefully not making the cut for debate #3 will provide her that clarity.

18. Bill de Blasio Tactical: D
It's amazing for a politician to be this unlikeable and transparently phony. But we must remember that he's only in Gracie Mansion and on this stage because of Anthony Weiner's dick pics.  Fuck him.

19. Gabbard: Tactical: B
She's hard to grade, because I don't know what her agenda is. If she's trying to promote the cause of peace, well then I guess she said some of the right things. But it seems that her real agenda, for reasons known only to her, was to take out Kamala Harris. She unloaded the oppo research on her but to what effect?

You're going to hear more and more speculation about her real motivations as time goes by. I'm reserving judgment for now. But I sleep well knowing that's not going to be the nominee and that she apparently doesn't intend to run for another term in the House.

20.  Marianne Williamson Tactical: A-.
She got a few good lines in. The audience applauded her, especially her answer on reparations. She is going to have a very soft landing out of this-she'll grow her base of fans and she'll write more books and what-not in the future. Maybe she will get a talk show or some other platform that no one with her dangerous vies on vaccines and mental health should ever have.

She got some good buzz last night but she will never get above 2 percent in any national poll.  And that is the difference between the political parties-Democrats like and admire their hippy aunts, but Republicans vote for their racist uncles.