The final Spider Stumbled forecast.
Things are tense. About 2/3rd of the votes have been cast. But none have been counted. The experts favor Joe Biden heavily but the Trump base is making ample shows of support, ranging from obnoxious to really, very obnoxious. Even though Biden's national lead is comfortable the result is not quite certain. The race has not tightened much in the last month, but Trump has not completely collapsed either. I can reasonably see Biden getting as few as 238 Electoral Votes or as many as 413. This morning Dave Wasserman of Cook Political report Tweeted this morning that "the line between ~290 and ~400 EVs for Biden is astonishingly thin."
There's not much you can do now, except to worry. Take comfort in the fact that Joe Biden's lead is roughly double the size of the lead Hillary Clinton had on election eve 2016. Tomorrow night, there will be news to watch and results to decipher. I will try here to explain how the night might go and the implications of how specific state might affect the final outcome.
The night will start well for the Republicans. Trump will get Indiana and Kentucky early. Biden will get Vermont. People who do not follow this stuff closely will lament the score of 19-3. None of this matters though. We probably won't get any meaningful state calls until later in the evening. Truth is, there are only five states that will tell us anything about who is going to win the election
Florida (29 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), and Arizona (11) are all close and have enough electoral votes to put a candidate over the top. About 63% of the time, on of these five states will be the tipping point according to Nate Silver, but I suspect that number is even higher if we only look at scenarios with close outcomes.
For all of these scenarios, I used the fabulous tool on 538.com and assumed that Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan.
If Trump sweeps all five states, he will almost certainly be re-elected. Even if you assume that Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump wins 97% of the time. Conversely, if Biden sweeps, he is lock to be President.
The good news for Biden is that he doesn't need to sweep or even come close to a sweep. If Biden wins just one of the Big Five he has a good chance of winning. If he wins PA or FL, he is a more than 90% chance to win. And if he wins any two of the Big Five, he has at least a 95% of winning.
I made this handy chart around noon today using the 538 tool to help you visualize what the various Big Five combinations mean for the election chances.
If Biden wins at least two of these fives states, he is probably well on his way to victory. But the size and significance of the margin can vary.
II. The Three States That Will Decide The Scale.
If you want to really simplify your viewing tomorrow night, keep an eye on three states: Texas, Pennsylvania and Florida. If Trump sweeps them, he is favored to win. But if he doesn't sweep them, Biden almost certainly wins and he might run up a big score.
III. The Three Races That Will Be Close But Probably Won't Tip the Election.
Texas is huge and the polling is close this time but if Biden wins there, he probably has states to spare.
Most polling in Iowa have it close, but Trump did get one very good poll from the Des Moines register over the weekend. As I play with the math, I don't see Iowa putting either candidate over the top in a close race. Maine's 2nd congressional district is also likely to be close but unless it happens to be EV number 269 for Trump or 270 for Biden, it won't matter.
If you see early calls in any of these races, it is a good sign that the winning candidate is on his way to a good night.
IV. The Forecasts.
1. FiveThirtyEight. Biden is at 89 percent, up two from a week ago. Biden gets 351 EV. In the closing weeks, Iowa, Texas and Georgia have flipped between red and blue multiple times. Right now they have TX being closer than IA.
2. The Economist. Biden is at 96 percent, up from 95 percent a week ago. They have Biden winning 350 Electoral Votes- down from 355 last week.
3. Sabato Crystal Ball. Biden 321, Trump 217, up from Biden 290, Trump 248. They waited until today to make a call in every race. They pushed NC and GA to Biden, FL OH and IA to Trump. Their statement on FL was a little-wishy-washy but I respect that they made a call.
4. 270 to Win. Biden 290, Trump 163, Toss-up 85. Unchanged. They might make final calls over night, but they have been on this number for at least three weeks.
5. JHK Forecasts. Biden at 90.3%, Up from 88.3% last week. (I told you things were stable.) They have Biden winning 351 votes.
6. Plural Vote. . Biden at 65.5%. That's down 2.9% from last week. By average outcome of each competition, their map is Biden 319, Trump 219. But their most common outcome is Biden 312, Trump 232. I think that's the Sabato 290 plus GA and IA.
Their methodology is a little different. They give weight to Internet search activity. If the race winds up being closer, this method will be validated. But even they have Biden as a roughly 2 to 1 favorite.
7. Betting Markets. Predictit has Biden up 59.3%-40.7%. That's down 0.7 percent from last week. The map is now 290-248, the old Sabato/270 map.
The international markets listed on Real Clear Politics favor Biden 64.6% to 35.4%. That is virtually unchanged from a week ago.
V. A Wish List.
This is what I want to see happen, in order.
1. Defeat Donald Trump.
2. A Democratic Senate.
3. An orderly process without too many court battles or rat-fucking.
4. Biden wins at least one state that the Democrats have not won in this century. (AZ and GA are our best chances.)
5. Defeat Lindsey Graham. (I wouldn't bet on it, but Jamie Harrison has a chance.)
6. Steve Bullock win the MT-Senate race.
A Few Long Shots worth rooting for:
1. A Blue Texas. It will change how we feel about the divisions in this country.
2. Doug Jones keeps his senate seat. He never once failed to take the tough important votes that the Dems needed for him. He's probably going to lose by 10, but if he does I hope he gets to be ambassador to Aruba.
3. Mike Espy wins in Mississippi.
4. Joe Biden wins Montana. It's a reach, but I could see it happening on a great night.
5. The defeat of John Cornyn in Texas.
6. Democrats win at least one of the GA senate seats without needing a run-off.
I'd love to put Mitch McConnell losing here but I think that ship has sailed.
VI. My Final Map.
Last week I moved Biden back to 91%. I remain very confident, but I will note that Trump's base has not collapsed, which is something that seemed possible a few weeks ago. Turnout will be massive. That favors Biden, but there is an element of uncertainty when unseen numbers of votes are in play. I give Joe Biden an 88% chance of winning the election.
I'm keeping my map unchanged for the third straight week. Biden 351, Trump 187. As for the popular vote:
