The big news this week is of course the Mueller Report. My impression is that the report demonstrates multiple instances where the president obstructed justice. The spinning of this report by Attorney General Barr was exteremely disingenuous. In a just world, Barr would resign in shame. But that is not the world we live in.
The next big event will be hearings and the testimony of Robert Mueller (and, to a less extent, Donald McGahn) will probably determine whether or not there will be impeachment hearings. If there are hearings, then the president will probably be impeached. Then it will be up to the senate. I think it's very unlikely that Trump would be convicted in a senate trial but the process should go forward.
If I had to bet right now, I would say that the President will be impeached by the House but not convicted by the Senate. In fact, I think the Senate might simply refuse to hold a trial at all. That means he will most likely still be President a year from now. He will almost certainly run for re-election and if so, he will be the nominee of the Republican Party. Now, to the Democrats and their enormous field of mostly mediocre candidates.
I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.
This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates. If their standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis. Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.
Tip of the 40 ounce to Terry McCauliffe, Chris Murphy, Andrew Cuomo, Mitch Landrieu, and Andrew Steyer who decided to sit this race out since I last published my rankings.
Four That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar.
2. Elizabeth Warren (4)
She continues to impress me with her attention to detail and creative energy. If this race was determined purely on substantive issues, I think she would win the nomination and the election. But her poll numbers continue to disappoint and her fundraising numbers were lackluster for the first quarter. I hope she stays viable and gains some traction. She has earned it.
3. Kamala Harris (2)
She is running a cautious race so far. I think she knows that she has the money and resume to stay viable and she wants to spend 2019 avoiding any incidents that might jeopardize that.
4. Beto O'Rourke (3)
Also underwhelming so far. He needs to step up his game to the national stage.
Seven That I Would Be Happy With:
5. Julian Castro (14)
This is a big jump in a tremendous field. I like his temperament and presentation so far. He strikes me as someone that will benefit from the debates, in a way similar to how John Kasich moved up the Republican polls in 2016 after just barely qualifying for the main stage of the first debate.
6. Kristin Gillibrand
I am close to writing her off. A lot of Democrats hold her principled position on Al Franken against her, which is a shame. But a senator from New York state should be better able to raise funds and attract press.
7. Steve Bullock (8) No sign that he's running but I'll leave him in for now.
8. Joe Biden
He has baggage and is a older than I think is ideal for a president, but I think his political instincts will serve him will. He has been wise to delay the announcement because he has the name recognition to allow him the luxury of sitting out the silly season.
9. John Hickenlooper (12)
10. Jay Inslee (13)
11. Tim Ryan
Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
12. Pete Buttigieg (18)
Became a media darling by saying yes to everything. His novelty is just about to wear off, I expect, but he'll hang around for the voting, no matter what.
13. John Delaney (Unranked)
14. Corey Booker (17)
15. Eric Swalwell (Unranked)
Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
16. Seth Moulton (Unranked)
17. Andrew Yang (Unranked)
18. Bernie Sanders (19)
19. Wayne Messam (Unranked)
Three WHAT THE FUCK?
20. Marianne Wilamson (Unranked)
21. Mike Gravel (Unranked)
22. Tulsi Gabbard
II. The 2020 Hourse Race.
Here is what the polling shows so far: Bernie and Biden each have about a quarter of the party ready to support them. Everyone else is stuck in single digits. Buttigieg has out performed expectations and is currently in third place in most polls. Harris, Warren, O'Rourke, Booker and Klobuchar have yet to gain traction but they are the middle of the pack for now. Gillibrand, Inslee, Hickenlooper and all of the House members are the bottom tier for now. Below them, there are a handful of celebrity and novelty candidates who are just running for attention.
Because the field is so large, it might be helpful to try to think of which candidates could compete for certain voters. There are countless factors that this could be broken down by but I think the #1 issue for Democrats next year will be simple-Remove Donald Trump for office. So I think it's useful to think of these "lanes" in terms of what their appeal will be in the general election. If you like, you can think of these lanes as Left, Moderate and Centrist. But I think it's more interesting to think of them in terms of what voting blocs they would appeal to in the general election if they were the nominee.
In 2016 Donald Trump exceeded Mitt Romney's 2012 vote total but just over 2 million votes. Hillary Clinton's vote total was just 65,000 less than Barack Obama in 2012 or about 4 million less than Obama's 2008 total.
The dramatic shifts in voting patterns happened among the other candidates in the field. The Green Party and Libertarian parties nominated, respectively, Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2012 and 2106. The Greens increased their vote total by just under one million votes. The Libertarians increased theirs by over 3.2 million votes. Additionally, Evan McMullin got over 700,000 votes running as right-wing independent. (The 5th place finisher in 2012 got only 120K votes.)
The 2008 Obama Coaltion was an electoral marvel. It sucked up every electoral college vote that was in play. It damn near won Missouri. It held together enough to win in 2012 but it did not hold for 2016. For the rest of the 2020 cycle my analysis will discuss these three segments of the Obama Diaspora: 1. Trump or Stayed Homes 2. Soft Libertarians 3. Protest Greens.
1. SOFT LIBERTARIANS: (3.9 Million voters)
Voters who went Libertarian (or McMullin) in 2012 but not in 2012.
These are mostly people who are right of center that could not bring themselves to vote for either Trump or Hillary. I expect that Trump has won over a fair amount of them. The Democrats would win a lot of them if they nominate a centrist like Biden, but I don't think they will turn out for Bernie or anyone they perceive as either corrupt or inexperienced.
2. TRUMP OR STAYED HOME (3.7 million voters)
Obama 2008 voters who didn't vote for Hillary in 2016.
There are two sub-demographics in this group.
A. People who were upset with George W. Bush in 2008 and gave Obama a chance. He didn't keep many of them in the fold in 2012 or 2016. Some of them will probably come back in 2020 because they don't like Donald Trump personally, although that assumes that the Dems will nominate someone that they do like.
B. People who didn't turn out for Hillary in 2016. As discussed above Hillary nearly matched Obama's national vote total from 2012, but that was because of higher turnout in non-competitive states. For example, her combined vote totals in CA and TX exceeded Obama's 2012 haul by 1.468 million. But her combined totals in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was 698,000 less than Obama in 2012. Some of those people switched over to Trump but more of them simply stayed home. Whoever the Democratic nominees is, they will know that they must turn out marginal voters in those three states.
3. PROTEST GREENS (1 million voters)
Voters who voted Green in 2016 but not in 2012.
Jill Stein tripled her vote count between 2012 and 2016, from half a million votes to 1.5 million votes. Those million votes are most likely to come home to the Democratic party but it has to be acknowledged that a centrist like Biden will pick up fewer of them than Sanders or Warren will.
These are imprecise groups. There is some double counting, especially between the first two groups. But I think it's a useful matrix for categorizing the "lanes" of the 2020 Democratic Primary. I give you our first attempt to rank the chance of each serious candidate to be the nominee, relative to others and divided by who they would most appeal to in the general election.
Note: The Red Box is intentionally blank, because I think Ryan is less likely to be the nominee than O'Rourke or Klobuchar. For that matter, I think he's less likely than Castro or Gillibrand also.
Here is the whole field, even the weirdos nobodies and proxy by grandchildren candidates, ranked from 1 to 22.
The Top Tier Candidates.
1. Bernie Sanders
2. Joe Biden
3. Pete Butigieg
The Pack. (Someone from this group will break out of IA and NH to be a contender.)
4. Kamala Harris
5. Corey Booker
6. Elizabeth Warren
7. Beto O'Rourke
8. Amy Klobuchar
9. Juan Castro
Third Tier: Plausible But Flawed And/or Floundering.
10. Kristin Gillibrand
11. Tim Ryan
12. John Hickenlooper
13. Jay Inslee
14. John Delaney.
15. Eric Swalwell
16. Tulsi Gabbard
17. Seth Moulton
Fourth Tier: Long Shots.
18. Andrew Yang
19. Steve Bullock
20. Wayne Masson
21. Marianne Wiliamson
22. Mike Gravel
I debated leavin him off, because he's not really running. But he's indulging his grandchildren in letting them run a social media campaign in his name. What a country.
