First Republican Debate Reaction

 This debate was silly from the start because the nominee did not participate. That said, in true Republican fashion, let's hand out some participation trophies.

1. Ron DeSantis. Grade: C+

Boring and uninspired. Everytime he mentions that he "deployed with the Navy Seals", I cringe. He was a JAG officer, not a platoon leader. 

2. Vivek Ramaswamy. Grade: F (on substance) B+ (for his audience)

Earlier today Vladimir Putin murdered ten people by shooting down a plane over his own territory. Tonight Vivek Ramaswamy doubled down on the idea of letting him keep part of Ukraine so that we can then convince him to become an American ally. He was rightly ganged up on by the other candidates for this moral cowardice. But he has a huge political advantage in this primary.   

He also picks up on a piece of the Fox News message that most politicians are afraid to acknowledge-the idea that America itself is in decline. That was part of what won Trump the 2016 nomination. It will also be what wins him the nomination in 2024. All that B roll of riots and trans people have instilled a fear that only Vivek seems to understand. He is a gross human being but in the cynical politics of the present Republican party, he connects with the rest of the gross human beings who comprise that base.

I was hoping tonight would be a disaster for him. But he played his part pretty well. I expect he will go up in the polls over the next few weeks. Of course, he will not be the nominee. But one thing to look for as we get closer to Iowa- we'll know we have a real primary when Trump starts to casually mention that Vivek is a Hindu. 

Most of the candidates on that stage did their best to talk like a Fox News host but Vivek effortlessly thought like a member of the Fox News audience. He really is as dumb as the people he panders too.

3. Mike Pence.  Grade: D

He was annoying and overly aggressive without saying anything of substance.

4. Nikki Haley. Grade: B.

She had some good moments and didn't embarrass herself.  She landed some punches on DeSantis and Vivek. 

5. Chris Christie. Grade: C

He felt pretty canned and, as always, obnoxious. He was the only person on the stage with a reputation for being a good debater and he under performed. 

6. Tim Scott. Grade: C+

He likes mentioning that he was raised by a single parent. But good lord is he forgetable.

7. Asa Hutchinson: Grade B-

He had a couple flashes of principle, which were admirable. But he's another boring off-the-rack Republican who will never gain traction in this field.

8. Doug Burgum: Grade C+

Probably the best potential president on the stage tonight, which does not say much. He was pretty mild and that's not going to move the needle. But good on him for playing hurt, Doug. 

Bottom Line: Once more, with feeling: Vivek Ramaswamy is a horrible human being. 

The 2024 GOP Presidential Race.

Just kidding. There is no 2024 GOP presidential race. Donald Trump will be the nominee of that party next year. It does not matter that he has been indicted four times. It will not matter that he will likely be a convicted felon by Super Tuesday. It does not matter that he is a corrupt, incompetent drama queen. The Republican party likes him. They like him because he gives them license to vocalize their prejudices and take pride in their ignorance. They like him because he tells them that they are victims, which is very comforting. 

Most all they like him because he is their guy. They chose him seven years ago and there is an entire echo chamber that exists for the sole purpose perpetuating this status for him. Some pieces of this machinery wish to move on, but the masses say otherwise. He is currently polling at 55% of the field in a race with a dozen candidates.  He will win early. He will win often and the only thing that can stop him is the right Twinkee clogging the wrong artery between now and March 1st or so. If Donald Trump is capable of breath and basic mobility, he will be the Republican party for president next year.

Nevertheless, we are about 48 hours out from the first "Debate" of this presidential cycle. This event will look more like auditions for the vice-presidency than a traditional debate. The front-runner is staying home. Only one guy is expected to say anything mean or critical about him from the stage. He will be booed heartily when he does so. 

So this post is a look at the dozen or so other people who have decided to pretend the last three paragraphs are not so set in stone. They are worth looking at, at least once. After all, they pretend to think they're going to be president in 17 months. That's wild.

For each candidate,  I will ask three questions: Is he qualified?, Why is he running?, and what would a successful campaign look like for him? Then I'll make a brief prediction about how I think they will do in this sham of a primary. 

I have already squeezed the suspense out of who will win. But maybe these questions can help us begin to understand how this ill-fated clown car got quite so jammed.

TIER ONE: The Nominee Presumptive.

1. Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 54.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Well, he's the first former president to seek the office since Grover Cleveland so, I guess technically....no. The answer is good lord, no.

b. Why is he running?  To fill the love-shaped hole in his heart.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him?

To be elected President of the United States again. The full Grover Cleveland experience. It is the only thing that will ever make him feel a moment's happiness. And he has a chance. I would say he has about a 35% chance of achieving this, which is based entirely on the fact that Joe Biden's approval ratings remain stubbornly low. I think those numbers will change when the country accepts that we only have two options, but Biden is not as popular as he should be given the state of the economy, lack of meaningful scandal and his various successes in passing domestic legislation and forging foreign policy successes. But that is the subject for another post.

Trump will be the nominee and he has a chance of winning the election. We will go to the polls in 441 days and we won't be certain who the winner is until late that night.

TIER TWO: The Plausible Alternative.

2. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida.

National Polling Average among Republicans: 14.3%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. He's the governor of a big state and he was in congress before that. 

b. Why is he running? Because he assumed that his success in Florida would translate to a national mandate as the alternative to Trump. This was stupid. He should have waited until 2028 when he could have waltzed to the nomination. But I guess he had FOMO. Or an overly ambitious wife.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Being the nominee. It is still possible. Trump's likely convictions could start happening early in 2024 and maybe that will give some voters pause about whether he can beat Biden. (One small problem there-Republican primary voters all think that Joe Biden is awful and assume that the rest of the country share that sentiment.)  At the risk of being morbid, there is also the fact that Donald Trump could die in the next six months. But short of that, DeSantis is probably fated to get his ass kicked in the early primary states and return to Florida with his national brand deflated.

It's worth noting that DeSantis has already done something very stupid. Instead of running a traditional campaign he has decided to let his Super PAC do most of the fundraising. This means that he can't "coordinate" with the Super PAC openly, so they have to talk to each other through the public press releases. It really is as stupid as anything any presidential candidate has ever done. If you want the details, Josh Barro does a great job with them here:  https://www.joshbarro.com/p/memo-to-ron-desantis-be-smarter

So this is where the GOP golden boy stands. He's still second in most national polls but he has hopelessly destroyed his relationship with Trump and he has exposed himself as a terrible retail politician. He might be able to have a comeback in 2028 but as of now it looks like no one will lose more political capital in this cycle than Ron DeSantis.

Prediction: Second in Iowa. Third in New Hampshire. Dead after South Carolina. 

Tier Three: The Quadrennial Flash In the Pan.

3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Media Gadfly.

National Polling Average Among Republicans: 7.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Not on your life.

This stupid motherfucker is an insult to American democracy. It's early days but I think he might be less qualified for the presidency than Donald Trump. He started the campaign without having ever held a job in government and without even knowing what the nuclear triad is. His biggest "ideas" are for the United States to befriend Vladimir Putin and he thinks 9/11 may have been an inside job. I hate this prick. tl;dr:No.

b. Why is he running? To become famous. Did I mention that he is a prick and that I hate him? Because he is and I do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? Mission accomplished. He is the only candidate in this horrible field who is exceeding expectations. Of course, starting as 3o-something whose only accomplishment was to start a business that has never turned a profit, expectations were not exactly high. But he knows how to talk to old white people and make them feel good. That's a valuable commodity if your goal is to be a guest on Joe Rogan and maybe set up a reverse mortgage concern. 

This vapid asshole has already gotten tons of free press. The people who watch Fox News have picked him as their official token minority for this cycle. He is in the Alan Keyes-Herman Cain-Ben Carson fraternity for life. Two years from now he'll be writing books and hosting a podcast and being an irritant in our national life.  It beats working. 

Prediction: he'll finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Then 4th in New Hampshire. He'll probably bow out before South Carolina, in order to stay in Trump's good graces.

TIER FOUR: Garden Variety Losers.

4. Mike Pence, 48th Vice-President of the United States.

National Polling Average: 5.2%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, sure. 

b. Why is he running? It's what vice-presidents do.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for him? 

Second or third place. Staying in past New Hampshire. Maybe staking some claim to his legacy as having done the bare minimum to keep our republic in place?

Primary Prediction: 4th in Iowa. 5th in New Hampshire. Extremely boring concession speech.

5. Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 3.4%.

a. Is she qualified? More than most in this field.

b. Why is she running? Because she is a try-hard who is in denial about the racist, sexist nature of her party.

c. What would a successful campaign look like for her? Proving me wrong about the racist, sexist nature of her party by coming in second and/or winding up on the ticket.

Primary Prediction: She will not run a successful campaign. But she will burn through a lot of money that would have otherwise been spent on second boats and fourth golf club memberships. But she'll probably cling on to her place in the national discourse-going on Sunday talk shows to prove that the Republican party is not racist and sexist. Someday she'll probably be a cabinet secretary.

6. Tim Scott, Junior Senator from South Carolina.

National Polling Average: 2.8%.

a. Is he qualified? Yeah, I guess.

b. Why is he running? Because a lot of rich people told him that the party is dying to nominate a never married black man to be president. And he probably thinks he can wind up being Donald Trump's running mate. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Being on the ticket. 

Primary Prediction: He seems like a nice enough guy. He'll get some traction in Iowa. If he can finish second there, then he will just need to survive New Hampshire and probably come in second again in South Carolina. That could be a strong enough performance to get Trump's attention. 

7. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

National Polling Average: 2.6%.

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He seems to think he can out bully Donald Trump. But he has no idea the difference between being a Jersey caliber asshole and a world-class malignant narcissist. I genuinely believe that if Donald Trump participated in even one debate, he would make Chris Christie cry on the stage. That's the only thing I will regret about Trump not doing these debates.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? I suppose he thinks he can rehabilitate his image. And be there in case the party wakes up to how weak a general election candidate Trump is because of his baggage. But the party will never nominate him.

Primary Prediction: 4th in New Hampshire, out of the race soon after that. He'll probably go back to a cushy media job although I personally hope it's a peg or two lower than the one he had at ABC before entering this race. We need to stop making presidential candidate a good thing to have on your resume.

TIER FIVE: The Dreggs.

8. Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. 

a. Is he qualified? Yes.

b. Why is he running? He is a rich guy that wants to be a national player. He actually has one admirable quality-he believes in climate change. (Although being from North Dakota, he also loves the fossil fuel industry, so that's kind of a wash. But I hope he gets to make that point on the debate stage this week because more Republicans need to hear it.

And he's a patron of the arts. Which is nice. But he also signed a sever abortion ban for his state, so fuck this guy after all. 

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like For Him? Try not to blow too much of that fortune, Doug. Who knows, you might want to do this again in 2028.

Primary Prediction: Maybe the field thins out after Iowa and he wins some delegates in New Hampshire. If he really wants to burn a hole in his billion dollar fortune, he can hang on and win some more delegates in the early primaries. +

9. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.

a. Is he qualified: Almost.

b. Why is he running? He thinks he can govern like an old-school mainstream Republican free from the taint of Trumpism. That ship has sailed, but he's going to go down swinging.

c. What Would a Successful Campaign Look Like for Him? Qualifying for all the debates Not dropping out before Iowa. He also has shown some glimmers of independent thought on the subject of Trump's corruption, so he might be able to have a moment in this first debate. 

Primary Prediction: Hopeless.

TIER SIX: Sludge and Slugs.

There are some other dirt bags running in this race. The mayor of Miami. Lawrence Elder. One or two rich weirdoes (besides Trump and Ramaswamy.) Oh, and Will Hurd, who is sort of decent guy that is gaining all the traction you would expect a sort-of decent guy to get among these swine. I won't waste your time with them but I'll leave this a place holder. There is one scenario worth thinking about-what if Trump clobbers this field in the early states but then gets convicted of a crime and the party tries to turn on him? Well then we'll probably need a compromise candidate.  If DeSantis has done okay in the first few primaries, it could be him. But he'll probably alienate a lot of people in the coming months by spending a lot of money to get his ass kicked.  

If I had to pick someone to be the nominee who is not in the current field, I would go with Glenn Younkin, the governor of Virginia. He's a lightweight but he doesn't offend any of the major constituencies and the the party will probably fall for the hype of possibly winning Virginia for the first time in 20 years.

But brokered conventions and white-knight candidates are the stuff of history books and West Wing fan fiction. This is the real world and we are stuck with Trump v. Biden II. 

\

Oscar Thoughts, 2022/2023

When the nominations came out, I had only seen one of the Best Picture nominee. I've now seen eight. So there is a lot of recency bias below. But I will speak up for one summer movie that was slighted.  The Batman should have gotten a Best Picture nomination, a directing nomination and at least one acting nomination. (For Zoe Kravitz.)

That said, here are the nominations:

Best Picture:

1. Triangle of Sadness. I knew nothing about this movie and I'm pretty sure I would have skipped it if someone described it for me, so I'm not going to say anything specific. But it is, by far, my favorite movie of the year.

2. Tar. Probably going to be remembered over time as the definitive character study of a narcissist.

3. The Banshees of Inisherin. I was asked if this movie is depressing and I said, "Not by Irish standards." (So yes. Quite depressing for the rest of Chistendom.)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Nothing new here, but it's well made and it's nice to know the Germans are still anti-war. (Need to keep an eye on that every few years.)

5. The Fablemans The story is a little tame but it's got the usual Spielberg signs of excellence. Oh and Seth Rogen is in it, for some reason.

6. Women Talking. Boring and non-sensical but hey, can't say they didn't warn us, right fellas? Just kidding. It's fine. I liked the cast. Has gaping plot hole that I guess we'll just call a conceit and move on.

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once. I know there are a lot of really smart people who insist that multiverses are possible and I have no reason to doubt that, but holy shit do they ruin literature. And the driving force behind the script seems to be, "If you think of it, we're keeping it in the movie." So once again, can't say they didnt warn us.

8. Elvis. I'll go full Ebert: I hated, hated, hated this movie. It is ahistoric, insulting to the intelligence, poorly  acted and probably the worst editing job I've ever seen. Ful disclosure: I only watched the first 45 minutes but I will never have the time to watch the rest of it.

*Did Not See*
9. Top Gun Maverick. Pilot propaganda from a Scientologist. No, thank you.

10. Avatar. I still have not forgiven Cameron for "unobtanium" and I think it's depressing that this sequel to a movie no one remembers made a billion dollars just by force of marketing will.

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Best Director:

1 & 2. Tar & Triangle of Sadness are both extremely worthy of winning this. I liked Triangle better as a movie but Todd Field has only directed three movies and they are all fantastic. I can't quibble with him winning if he does.

3. Fablemans. Speilberg has already won twice, so I doubt he will win.

4. Banshees is a good movie but not especially challenging to film, so I doubt this wins.

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once.  I know I'm an outlier.

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Best Actor.

1. Colin Firth This is the only nominated movie I saw, apart from 1/3 of that terrible Elvis impression that the kid is still doing in interviews. God I hope he doesn't win.

Prediction: Probably Brendan Fraser but Frith has a shot. Just rooting against Elvis. Like Chuck D trained me to do.

Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett and this is not close. But she's already won twice so she's probably a slight under dog.
2. Michelle Yeoh. I mean...she was good. But honestly, can you think of 3 adjectives to describe her character? I can't.
3. I didn't see To Leslie but she had to be better than....
4. Michelle Williams. She owned a monkey. And she looks great in a backlit see-thru dress. That is what I remember about her character. Oh and she had a crush on Seth Rogen, for some reason.
5. Ana de Armas. The most beautiful woman in the world and she did a goo d Marilyn impression but I had to give up on this movie for its pure dreariness.

Prediction: Yeoh

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Kerry Condon, Banshees.
2. Stephanie Hsu, Everything
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everthing

I didn't see the Whale or Black Panther 

Prediction: Condon

Best Supporting Actor;
1. Judd Hirsch, the Fabelmans. Not much screen time, but he brought the movie to life for those few minutes.
2. Barry Keoghan, Banshees.
3. Brendan Gleeson, Banshees
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything. I will be delighted if he won, and I think he was the best part of this movie but by now you've probably figured out I'm not a fan of it overall.

Apparently the 5th nomination went to Bryan Henry for a movie called "Causeway." Congrats to him.

Prediction: Short Round. People will love that story. The Banshees actors probably split votes and Hirsch's role is too small but at least he prevented Seth Rogen from probably getting a nomination, (for some reason). 

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Triangle of Sadness. So maybe some of the dialogue is a little too on the nose, but this movie is original with a capital O. And there is one scene in this movie that I will want to watch on YouTube ever three months for the rest of my life. 

2. Tar.

3. Banshees

4. Fablemans

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once.  But maybe, just maybe Triangle. That would be awesome.

Best Adapted Screenplay;

1. Glass Onion. The finale was 10 minutes too long but I still think this is the best script nominated.

2. Women Talking. This is a talker and the dialogue is first rate but I have to reference the plot hole again, which was distracting.

 [Spoiler Warning for the plot hole: Where the hell are they going to go? How does it possibly end well for any of them?]

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

Didn't see Living or Top Gun.

Prediction: Women Talking.