The 2020 race is officially underway. Most of the major candidates have announced and have begun to hire staff. So it's time to update my power rankings.
I. THE SPIDERSTUMBLED BLOG POWER RANKINGS.
This section is just about me. These are my ranked preferences among the likely candidates. If thier standing has changed since the first rankings, I put their number from the previous iteration of this list in parenthesis. Bold indicates that the candidate has already announced that they are running.
But first, a quick word about two candidates that have already left this race: Los Angelas Mayor Eric Garcetti was number 15 on my first list and Starbucks billioniare of means Howard Schultz was number 21. Gargetti merely declined to enter a crowded field. But Schultz decided to act on some terrible advice and test the waters of an independent self-financed campaign that is probably going to be remembered as the most awful abortive campaign for president of all time. Or at least for all of 2020.
Six That I Would be Enthused About:
1. Amy Klobuchar.
I think her announcement in the Minnesota snow was great. And the stories aboout her being a demanding boss only make think she's qualified to do the job.
2. Kamala Harris (3).
A very strong start with solid telivised appearances.
3. Beto O'Rourke (2)
He's starting to look a little not-quite ready for this race. That dental chair gimmick was dumb.
4. Elizabeth Warren
So far, she's the most willing to throw mud back at the incumbent. I don't think that hurts her for now.
5. Chris Murphy
Seems less likely to run.
6. Kristin Gillibrand
She's running a polite and cautious race so far.
Ten That I Would Be Happy With:
7. Sherrod Brown (10)
He's impressed me so far. Much more pragmatic than I expected him to be. I'm starting to think his appeal is broad enough to win.
8. Steve Bullock (7)
9. Joe Biden (8)
I'm slightly surprised that he hasn't announced yet but with his name recognition, he can afford to wait longer than most others.
10. Mitch Landrieu
11. Michael Blomberg
12. Tim Ryan
13. John Hickenlooper
14. Jay Inslee
15. Julian Castro (Unranked)
He was my biggest oversight in the first post. He has a decent resume and is the only Latino candidate in the field, which might give him a certain base in the primary electorate. But I think most Democrats know that they don't want to be running around Florida with "CASTRO 2020" signs next fall.
16. Eric Holder
Four That Mean Something Went Wrong But Okay, Sure:
17. Andrew Cuomo (18)
18. Terry McAuliffe (17)
A bad fortnight for the Virginia Democratic party.
19. Corey Booker (20)
Done well so far but I still think he's a bit of a phoney.
20. Pete Buttigieg (19)
His is a vanity campaign.
Four That Well, I Won't Vote For Trump, So Fingers Crossed.
21. Bernie Sanders (21)
22. Tom Steyer
He has said that he will not run, but I can see him changing his mind because she seems to think this whole enterprise is a lark.
23. The Field of Dumb Celebrities
We have an official entrant in this category! Marianne Wiliamson. She's an author and self-help guru, which is convinient, because she's goin to need plenty of self-help to get over this humiliating process.
One WHAT THE FUCK?
24. Tulsi Gabbard. (Unranked)
I think this candidacy is absolutely nuts. She genuinely feels like an agent of chaos. And I still have not seen so much as a single Tweet supporting her run. I'm suspicious even of her good intentions. But I won't elaborate on that for now, because I'm hoping she just goes away.
II. The 2020 Hourse Race.
This is where I handicap the race. If a candidate's place has moved, I put their previous ranking in parenthesis. The two percentages next to each candidate stand for their chances of being the nominee and of beating Trump if they are the nominee.
There's very little movement here because nothing has happened to shift the fundamentals of the race-the Democrats are favored to win but the field for their nomination is wide open.
The Top Tier Candidates.
1. Bernie Sanders 16%/60%
2. Joe Biden 14%/70%
3. Kamala Harris 14%/65%
4. Elizabeth Warren 11%/60%
5. Corey Booker 6%/50%
Second Tier: The Anti-Trumps
6. Amy Klobuchar 9%/70% To win, you have to run. That's why she leap frogged Beto.
7. Beto O'Rourke 9%/70%
8. Sherrod Brown 9%/70%.
Third Tier: Plausible But Flawd.
9. Michael Bloomberg 3%/58%
10. Kristin Gillibrand 3%/57%
11. Eric Holder 1%/60%
12. Andrew Cuomo 1%/60%
13. Terry McCauliffe 1%/60%
14. Chris Murphy 1%/65%.
Fourth Tier: Long Shots.
If Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, John Delaney or Eric Swaell somehow get through this crowded field, then they possess political skills of formidable depth and would be the favorite to win against Trump.
If Buttigieg, Gabbard or Some Dumb Celebrity is the nominee, Trump will probably win.
