2020 Democratic Field, Take Six (Post 2nd Debate)

I.  Do You Ever Think About Death?

This weekend, the country experienced two horrific mass shootings. That's a lot, even for US.

It's early but the reaction this time feels different. Tonight the governor of Ohio was shouted down at a vigil with chants of "Do Something." Watch the video. Only about half the attendees are actively chanting but what's really interesting is the reaction of those who are not chanting. They are quiet. They are not telling anyone to stop chanting. They seem torn, between wanting to be respectful of the fact they are at a vigil and wanting to well, "Do Something."

The shooting in El Paso was inspired by the racist rhetoric of our President and his obedient bullhorn, the Fox News Channel.  The shooter wrote a manifesto that made two broad points-the United State is being invaded by non-white immigrants and that white Americans need to use their right to bear Arms to repel this invasion because the white people of Europe do not share those rights. 

This one is on the Republicans, full-square. It will fade as a news story, as all of these horrific episodes do.  But it has reinforced the narrative that Donald Trump is a white nationalist. And it has so far emboldened Democrats to connect those dots. 

We'll see if these facts affect poll data as the weeks go by. I suspect that it will. Americans are sick of living like this. And I think the silly idea that that this is about mental health or praryer in schools or motherfucking video games is finally being treated as the nonsense that it has always been. 

II.  The Field Takes Shape, (Sort of)

The past week gave us some slight clarity on the state of the race for the Democratic nomination. After two rounds of debates, the polls are about where they were two months ago-Biden leads, with Warren, Harris and Sanders also in double digits. Pete Buttigieg remains in fifth. Beto O'Rourke is a distant sixth, and everyone else is reguarly pollin between 1 and 2 points in both statewide and national polls.  

Only eight candidates have qualified for the third debate in Houston, with Klobuchar and Booker joining the above mentioned candidates.  Andrew Yang and Julian Castro each need one more poll at 2 perecnet or above to put them in the debate. I expect they will both get that.

That would bring the field up to ten candidates. That would mean one night of debates, with all the front runners on stage together. If an 11th candidate qualifies, then the field will be split in two again, so we might not get the top four on the same stage. But the smaller panels will give each candidate more time to speak.  I'm rooting for 11 to qualify because I think Klobuchar will benefit from being given more time on her night. 

Only three candidates have even a single qualifying poll at two percent-Gabbard, Hickenlooper and Steyer. Gabbard has met the donors threshold. None of the others are close. So we might need a Gabbard bounce to split the field in Houston.


III. The Spider Stumbled Power Rankings, Take Six.

These are my purely personal preferences.  Since the last rankings, Eric Swalwell and Mike Gravel have dropped out of the race. So we are down to 23 spots. 

Changes from the previous ranking are noted for each candidate. (Not a lot of change this time.)   



1. Amy Klobuchar  Unchanged
2. Kamala Harris (Up from 3)
3. Elizabeth Warren  (Down from 2).  
4. Julian Castro (5)  Unchanged

5. Jay Inslee (Up from 13)  He had a strong performance and let's face it-his priority is the right one. If we don' stop heating up the planet, we are all fucked. 
6. Beto O'Rourke (Down from 5)  He had another laclucster night in the debate, but he has a rare opportunity to speak about the shooting in his hometown. So far, he is speaking plainly and truthfully.

7. Michael Bennett (Unchanged)  
8. Steve Bullock (Unchanged)
9. Pete Buttigieg (Unchanged)
10. Joe Biden (Unchanged)
11. John Delaney (Unchanged)

12. Corey Booker  (Up from 14)
13. John Hickenlooper (9)
14. Kristin Gillibrand  (Down from 6)  Her attack on Joe Biden was very dishonest. I hope she starts looking for the exit once she officially fails to make the next debate stage..
15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged)

16. Seth Moulton (Up from 17)
17. Joe Sestak (Up from 18)
18. Bernie Sanders (Unchanged)

19. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)  

20. Wayne Messam  (Unchanged)
21. Bill de Blasio (Down from19)  He is a prick.

22. Tulsi Gabbard (Unchanged)
23. Marianne Williamson (Down from 20)  

IV..   The Horse Race, Take Six.

This is where I handicap the field and attempt to put it into an orderly system of tiers. 

The Top Tier Candidates 

There are no changes in this tier from last time.
1. Joe Biden 
2. Elizabeth Warren 
3. Kamala Harris
4. Bernie Sanders 
5. Pete Buttigieg 

The Pack 

Swapped the Texans.

6. Cory Booker (Unchanged)
7. Beto O'Rourke (8)

8. Julian Castro (7)
9. Amy Klobuchar (8)

Flawed and/or Floundering 

Only 4 candidates left here, down from six last time. I think Gillibrand and Ryan have been exposed as candidates with no particular rational or political base to draw from. They are long shots.

10. Jay Inslee (Up from 13)

11. John Hickenloper (Up from 12)

12. Michael Bennett (Down from 10)
13. John Delaney (Up from 14)

Long Shots

14. Steve Bullock (Up from 19)

15. Tim Ryan (Unchanged at 15, but down a tier to long shot, because he is meathead.)

16. Kristen Gillibrand (Down from 10)

17. Bill de Blasio (Unchanged)
18. Joe Sestak (Unchanged)

19. Tulsi Gabbbard Unchanged)

20. Seth Moulton (17)

Train Wrecks
21. Andrew Yang (Up from 22)
22. Wayne Messam (Up from 23, by attrition) 
23. Marrianne Williamson (Up from 24, also by attrition)