In keeping with my half-assed approach to following and forecasting the 2024 presidential primaries, here is a look back at Michigan and several unimportant states, with a view toward tomorrow's "Super Tuesday" action.
I. Michigan- GOP.
My final call was "So let's go with Trump 72%, Haley 27%, Others 1."
The final result was Trump 68, Haley 27, Others: 5.
So I nailed Haley's number but underestimated how popular "Uncommitted" is in this state. Uncommitted got a full 3 points and the dropouts combined for 2 percent, including DeSantis who got 1.2%.
Giving myself an A-.
II. Michigan -Democratic
My final call was "So let's go with: Biden 76% Uncommitted 15% Phillips 7% Williamson 2%."
The final result was: Biden 81, Uncommitted 13, Williamson 3 and Phillips 3.
I short-changed Biden, slightly over estimated Uncommitted, slept on Marianne's enduring popularity on the fringe and comically over-estimated Phillips, who is a loser.
Let's call it a B+. I was close on the important candidates.
III. Missouri, Utah, Michigan (convention) and DC-GOP only.
Since last Tuesday, four other contests gave out delegates to the Republican convention. Trump swept the delegates given on Saturday (126 of them) and then Haley won all 19 delegates from Washington DC by getting 1,274 votes from various trust fund babies and congressional staffers while Trump only managed to get 676 votes from lobbyists and the relatives of January 6th inmates.
Congrats to Nikki! She won't be shut out.
IV. State of the Race and Super Tuesday.
Both races are over. Biden and Trump will be the nominees of their parties and only a major health calamity can avoid a November rematch between these two altacockers.
I think Biden has performed slightly better than expectations. Michigan was the first place where he faced a coordinated opposition and it only managed to win 2 delegates. The 2024 DNC will be a coronation inside the United Center and probably a shit show outside on Madison street.
Trump has also done what he needs to do. He is sailing towards this nomination and is likely to all but clinch it after tomorrow's race. He currently has 244 delegates and will likely win 29 from the ND caucus today. That will put him about 950 delegates away from the 1,215 he needs to be the nominee.
V. My GOP predictions for tomorrow:
1. Vermont: Trump by 4. This is the only race tomorrow where Haley has a chance of winning, mostly because it still has a functioning moderate state GOP whose leaders have endorsed Haley. She is also helped by the fact that any registered voter can vote in the GOP primary.
The delegate math is interesting here because if either candidate gets a majority, they will get all 17 delegates. But Vermont is quirky so it's theoretically possible that the DeSantis/Christi voters could make a 49-45 result, which would split the delegates.
That said, I'm thinking Trump gets over 50% and thus all 17 delegates. But hey, Haley could make the state count 49-1 instead of 50-0 and that would piss off Trump, so I'm rooting for Nikki here.
2. Virginia: Trump by 12. (Haley 5 delegates)
3. Minnesota: Trump by 27. (Haley 12 delegates)
4. Massachusetts: Trump by 23. (Haley 6 delegates)
5. Colorado: Trump by 31. (Haley 2 delegates)
6. Maine: Trump by 40.
7. North Carolina: Trump by 44. (Haley 6 delegates)
8. Texas: Trump by 47. (Haley 4 delegates)
9. Alabama: Trump by 63.(Haley 2 delegates)
10. Alaska: Trump by 38. (Haley 8 delegates)
11. Tennessee: Trump by 54. (Haley 3 delegates)
12. Oklahoma: Trump by 66.
13. Arkansas: Trump by 70. (Haley 5 delegates).
270 to win has a great breakdown of the delegate allocation math for the Republicans. Just click on a state to check the numbers:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/
So I'm saying Trump will go 13 for 13 and win the delegate haul by 812 to 53.
A good night for Haley looks like this: she wins Vermont. She keeps Virginia close and she gets over 75 delegates.
No matter how the voting goes, I expect her to make a Rubio style victory speech around 10PM eastern. On Wednesday we'll start to hear about staffers being let go. She'll suspend the campaign, either on Friday afternoon or during one last Sunday morning TV show.
VI: My Democratic Predictions for Tomorrow.
Biden leads the current delegate count with 206. There are 2 Uncommitted delegates. Phillips and Williamson have exactly zero delegates.
There are 1,420 delegates at stake tomorrow and it's entirely possible that Biden will win over 1,400 of them.
A. Biden will win by very large margins and sweep the delegates in: California, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Utah
B. Uncommitted or some other candidate might win a delegate or two if they have a great night in a congressional district in: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Virginia
C. Phillips should win at least a couple delegates in: Minnesota
D. Phillips and Williamson could win a delegate or two each in Iowa
A good night for Biden is 1,400 delegates. A good night for Phillips is over 10 delegates. A good night for Williamson is more than 2 delegates.
Like I said, the race is over. But the details will be fun to dissect. And after this, we'll be only eight months away from the general election.
