The election is now 100 days away. I haven't updated my prediction in six weeks because the polls have been steady. Joe Biden is winning the national vote by eight to 10 points and seems to have multiple paths to 270. He is the betting favorite and his opponent does not seem capable of substantive change.
A lot can happen in 100 days but for the moment, it is reasonable to start thinking less about who will win the race and more about what the margin of victory will be. I think comparing the possible outcomes to recent elections is a good framework.
I. The Obama Coalition.
A lot can happen in 100 days but for the moment, it is reasonable to start thinking less about who will win the race and more about what the margin of victory will be. I think comparing the possible outcomes to recent elections is a good framework.
I. The Obama Coalition.
In 2008 Barack Obama won the popular vote by more than seven points and the Electoral College by more than two to one. The democrats receded from that mark in the two most recent elections, but I think Biden has a shot to win every state Obama won in 2008 except Indiana. He is still the under dog in Iowa and Ohio but he could make up for those states by winning Arizona and Georgia. So let's define a big win as going over 360 electoral votes-that is to win more EVs than the original Obama states have been worth since the 2010 census reapportionment.
A significant win could look something like winning all of the Obama states except IN, IA & OH. That would put him at 322 votes. Give him Arizona and he's up to 333, one vote better than Obama did in 2012.
A more modest victory would be anything short of the 2012 race. And, of course, a loss would be a loss. A terrible loss would be to somehow do worse than Clinton did. If that happens, a lot has gone wrong over the next 100 days.
II. The Veep Stakes.
Last time I updated the field, I thought that the list had been narrowed down to five people. But this week Joe Biden said there were four black women still in contention. My short list had three (Harris, Demmings and Rice). So it's safe to assume that he is considering some combination of them along with Major Lance-Bottoms of Atlanta and/or Representative Bass of California.
The betting markets still prefer Harris but I am leaning more and more towards Susan Rice. Here is my new look at the options. I hope that Biden is confident enough in his polling and prospects that he chooses the person who he thinks will make the best president. In my estimation, that person is Susan Rice.
III. Other Forecasts.
1. Spider Stumbled. Holding steady with Biden 334, Trump 204. I think Biden is a 85% favorite to win. And for the record, here is how I have predicted the other elections since the Obama coalition uhh...coalesced.
I was slightly cautious in 2008 and 2012 but like most people, I did not see the Trump upset coming.
2. JHK Forecasts. They give Joe Biden a 87.1% chance of winning. Their median result is Biden 347, Trump 191. (Up from 325 to 213.) If you award every state to the winner with a 50.00001% probability, you end up with an unchanged result of Biden 341, Trump 197. (Up from 334 to 204-they now give Biden Iowa and all of Maine's votes.)
3. Predicit it: Their betting line is Biden 62 cents, Trump 39 cents. That is up from 58/42. Once again if you award every state to the candidate who is favored, however slightly, you get an unchanged result of Biden 334, Trump 204. That is unchanged from last time.
4. 270towin.com They have joined the bandwagon. They now project Biden to win with 278 votes, with Trump getting 169 and 91 votes being toss-up. Six weeks ago they had Biden stuck at 232 with Trump at 204 and 102 toss-up. They moved PA, WI and MI to Biden's column from toss-up and they have moved Ohio and Maine-2nd to tossup.
5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Yet more static; Biden 268, Trump 204, Toss-up 66. That is up from 248/233/57 but he still has Biden short of 270. To be elected, Biden would need to win one of four toss-up states-Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida.
6. The Economist. The Economist continues to be most bullish on Biden. They give him a 92% chance of winning (up from 84%) and a median result of Biden 350, Trump 192. (That's up from 335/213) If you look at their categorizations, it's a bit more conservative-with Biden 307, Trump 185 and Uncertain 66. They have Ohio as uncertain, along with IA, NC, GA and AZ.
Still no forecast from Nate Silver. But I think that is coming soon. His first 2016 forecast was released on June 8th. One possible explanation is that the Democratic primaries are not officially over yet because of COVID-19 delays. But it's hard to imagine that the results of the Connecticut primary on August 11th will move the needle at all.
